USD/CHF Is Still Climbing, but the Rate Advantage Is Less ConvinUSD/CHF is rebuilding toward the 0.818–0.820 area while the four-hour structure remains constructive.
The chart is improving, but the macro argument behind further dollar strength is less straightforward than it was only a few weeks ago.
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% in July. That still leaves a very large nominal rate advantage over Switzerland, where the SNB has kept its policy rate at 0%.
Normally, that differential should remain supportive for USD/CHF.
The complication is that the Fed side of the equation is becoming less secure. Recent U.S. labour data weakened the argument for additional tightening, while markets have become more sensitive to any evidence that growth is slowing.
The SNB faces almost the opposite problem.
Swiss inflation remains low, and the central bank has explicitly said it is willing to intervene in foreign exchange markets if rapid franc appreciation threatens price stability. Its June forecast put average inflation at just 0.6% for 2026.
So both currencies have a reason not to strengthen too aggressively.
What the chart shows
The four-hour chart continues to produce higher lows.
Price has held above the rising support line and is now moving back toward the 0.818–0.820 supply area, where previous advances stalled.
The lower 0.801–0.804 region remains the more important structural support. As long as that area holds, the broader recovery remains intact.
But the current move still needs confirmation at the top of the range.
Primary interpretation
The constructive USD/CHF view remains credible while price stays above rising support.
The interpretation gains weight if buyers establish four-hour acceptance above 0.820. That would suggest the market is still willing to price the U.S. rate advantage despite the weaker Fed narrative.
Alternative interpretation
The alternative is that the recovery fails again at higher-time-frame supply.
That scenario becomes more credible if price rejects the 0.818–0.820 area and then loses the rising support line.
In that case, the market may be signalling that the rate differential is no longer enough to overcome softer U.S. expectations.
What would change the current view
The constructive interpretation would weaken below the rising trend structure and especially after sustained acceptance beneath 0.804.
The cautious view would weaken after a clean break and hold above 0.820.
What comes next
The next major test is whether incoming U.S. inflation and labour data keep the Fed tightening argument alive. On the Swiss side, the next SNB policy assessment is in September, with the central bank still balancing low inflation against the risk of excessive franc strength.
USD/CHF still has the rate differential, but the market is asking whether that advantage is still enough. Can the Swiss Franc Defy Macroeconomic Gravity?Macroeconomics and Interest Rate Differentials
The EUR/CHF currency pair reflects stark macroeconomic divergences between the Eurozone and Switzerland. The European Central Bank balances fragile growth against persistent inflation pressure across member states. Conversely, the Swiss National Bank maintains interest rates near zero to curb excessive currency strength.
Real yield differentials traditionally dictate capital allocation between these neighboring economic blocs. However, Swiss inflation remains significantly lower than Eurozone consumer price indexes. This low inflation preserves the internal purchasing power of the Swiss franc over long horizons. Consequently, structural appreciation pressure continues to anchor the EUR/CHF pair near historic lows.
Geopolitics and Geostrategic Safe-Haven Dynamics
Geopolitical friction across Eastern Europe and the Middle East continuously drives safe-haven flows. Global investors routinely flee volatile sovereign debt markets in favor of Swiss financial stability. Switzerland’s strict political neutrality and robust fiscal balance sheet reinforce its geostrategic appeal.
While European markets absorb war-related energy shocks, Switzerland’s energy infrastructure remains remarkably resilient. This stability insulates the domestic economy from international supply disruptions. Even as global central banks diversify reserves, the Swiss franc commands massive institutional confidence. Consequently, geopolitical crises consistently trigger swift franc appreciation against the euro.
Industry Trends and Corporate Business Models
A strong Swiss franc presents a dual-edged sword for domestic industrial enterprises. Export-oriented manufacturers face tighter profit margins when selling products priced in euros. To adapt, Swiss companies adopt sophisticated currency hedging models and supply chain optimization.
Many firms deliberately source raw materials from the Eurozone to exploit favorable exchange rates. This natural hedge lowers production costs while maintaining premium product pricing globally. Meanwhile, import-oriented businesses harvest immediate margin expansions from cheaper European goods. Corporate business models increasingly prioritize operational flexibility over passive currency risk exposure.
Management Strategy and Central Bank Leadership
Central bank leadership profoundly influences short-term EUR/CHF volatility and liquidity conditions. The Swiss National Bank demonstrates decisive intervention strategies to prevent unmanageable franc surges. Unlike rigid monetary frameworks, SNB leadership deploys opportunistic foreign exchange interventions when necessary.
Corporate treasury managers parallel this proactive leadership by implementing dynamic multi-currency management protocols. Executive boards now view foreign exchange risk as a strategic operational core. They establish clear hedging mandates that protect balance sheets against sudden currency spikes. Prudent leadership transforms foreign exchange volatility into a manageable corporate variable.
Company Culture and High-Value Innovation
Swiss corporate culture rejects cheap mass production in favor of precision engineering and innovation. Firms heavily reinvest operational capital into cutting-edge research and product development. This culture of quality creates strong pricing power in international markets.
Global buyers willingly pay premium prices for Swiss machinery, timepieces, and luxury goods. Inelastic international demand shields Swiss exporters from adverse EUR/CHF exchange rate movements. Innovation serves as the ultimate structural moat against currency appreciation. By continually elevating product value, Swiss enterprises neutralize foreign exchange headwinds effectively.
Technology, Science, and Patent Portfolio Analysis
High-tech innovation drives the structural economic strength underlying the Swiss franc. Patent analysis reveals that Switzerland leads global rankings in patents per capita annually. Swiss technology hubs generate valuable intellectual property in robotics, microelectronics, and advanced materials.
Licensing this intellectual property generates continuous, high-margin foreign currency inflows. Furthermore, algorithmic trading platforms utilize advanced machine learning models for real-time EUR/CHF execution. Financial technology firms deploy predictive quantitative science to forecast central bank liquidity flows. This technological advantage reinforces Switzerland’s position as a high-tech financial fortress.
Cybersecurity Architecture and Financial Infrastructure
Cross-border liquidity between the Eurozone and Switzerland depends on impenetrable cybersecurity architecture. Swiss private banks and European settlement houses deploy quantum-resistant encryption protocols. These high-tech defenses secure cross-border interbank messaging against state-sponsored cyberattacks.
A single security breach could disrupt multi-billion-euro settlement flows instantly. Therefore, financial institutions continuously audit automated payment clearing networks for potential vulnerabilities. Robust cybersecurity architecture preserves market integrity and prevents systemic liquidity halts. This technical resilience reinforces global investor trust in Swiss monetary assets.
The Pharmaceutical Sector and Currency Resilience
The pharmaceutical industry serves as a crucial pillar supporting Switzerland’s trade balance. Global giants like Roche and Novartis generate immense export revenues in euros and dollars. Essential medical treatments command inelastic demand regardless of currency fluctuations.
Pharma companies frequently shift lower-margin manufacturing to Eurozone facilities to optimize costs. Concurrently, they maintain high-value clinical research and patent ownership inside Switzerland. This strategic separation protects research assets while reducing domestic currency exposure. Consequently, pharmaceutical exports generate consistent cash flows that offset broader manufacturing drags.
Conclusion
The EUR/CHF currency pair encapsulates the complex balance between European growth and Swiss stability. While rate differentials may induce temporary cyclical rallies, structural franc appreciation remains intact. Geopolitical risk, low inflation, and world-class innovation solidify the franc’s safe-haven status. Swiss enterprises continue to prove that precision quality beats currency depreciation every time. As global economic volatility persists, EUR/CHF remains a vital barometer for global risk sentiment. USDCHF Long-term bullish confirmed but time for relief pullback?Last time we had a look on the USDCHF pair (June 17, see chart below), we gave a strong Buy Signal as the price had marginally broken above its 1-year Channel Down and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line):
As the price is now very close to hitting our 0.82000 Target, it may be time to Sell as not only are we close to the Top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up that emerged and almost completed a symmetrical to the 1st one +5.77% Bullish Leg, but also about to test the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 31 2025.
As a result, on the medium-term it is more likely to see a Bearish Leg pull-back towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (as the previous Bearish Leg did) and the bottom of the Channel Up. Our Target is the 1W MA50 at 0.79500. If however the pair closes a 1W candle above the 1W MA100 first, this plan is invalidated.
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Short
USD/CHF — Pullback After a Strong RallyUSD/CHF — Pullback After a Strong Rally, But Bulls Are Still Defending the Structure
1. Market Overview
USD/CHF is trading around the 0.8050 area after a strong rally from the lower range. The pair previously pushed sharply higher and reached the 0.8120–0.8140 zone before losing momentum and pulling back.
After the correction, buyers stepped back in near the 0.8020–0.8030 area, creating a short-term rebound. However, price is now trading below the recent high, which means the market is still deciding whether this is a healthy pullback inside a bullish trend or the beginning of a deeper correction.
2. Market Structure
From a market structure perspective, USD/CHF is still in a bullish structure, but short-term momentum has weakened.
The broader 4H trend has been supported by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, especially after the strong breakout above the 0.8000 psychological level. This showed that buyers had control.
However, the recent rejection from 0.8120–0.8140 and the sharp pullback suggest that sellers are starting to react near the upper zone. The structure remains constructive as long as price holds above the key support area, but buyers now need to reclaim resistance to confirm continuation.
3. Daily / 4H Multi-Timeframe View
On the 4H timeframe, USD/CHF is currently in a rebound phase after the recent pullback. Price is trying to recover from the 0.8020–0.8030 area, but it is still below the short-term resistance around 0.8070–0.8100.
From a broader daily perspective, the pair still looks stronger than before because it has recovered above the 0.8000 level. However, the daily structure needs more confirmation. If price fails to hold above 0.8000, the broader recovery could lose strength.
In short, the 4H structure is still bullish-to-neutral, while the higher-timeframe picture remains constructive but not fully confirmed.
4. Key Resistance
0.8070–0.8100
This is the immediate resistance zone. Buyers need to break above this area to regain short-term momentum.
0.8120–0.8140
This is the recent high area and a key supply zone. A breakout above this zone would confirm that bulls are regaining control.
0.8160–0.8200
This is the next major upside target zone if the bullish continuation strengthens.
5. Key Support
0.8030–0.8020
This is the nearest short-term support zone. Price recently reacted from this area, so it is important for keeping the rebound structure alive.
0.8000
This is the key psychological support level. Holding above this level would keep the broader recovery structure intact.
0.7960–0.7940
If price breaks below 0.8000, this becomes the next important support zone. A move into this area would suggest that correction pressure is increasing.
6. Momentum & Volatility Check
Momentum is currently mixed.
The broader trend still favors buyers, but the recent pullback from the highs shows that bullish momentum has slowed. The rebound from 0.8020–0.8030 is positive, but the move is not yet strong enough to confirm a full continuation.
Volatility increased during the sharp pullback, but price is now stabilizing. This means USD/CHF may be preparing for its next directional move. A breakout above 0.8100 would improve momentum, while a break below 0.8020 would weaken the recovery attempt.
7. Bullish Factors
The first bullish factor is that USD/CHF remains above the key 0.8000 psychological level.
The second positive sign is that buyers reacted around 0.8020–0.8030, preventing a deeper breakdown for now.
The third factor is that the broader 4H structure has not fully turned bearish yet. As long as price continues to hold above 0.8000, buyers still have a chance to rebuild momentum.
A confirmed breakout above 0.8100 would be a strong signal that bullish continuation is returning.
8. Bearish Risks
The main bearish risk is the rejection from the 0.8120–0.8140 high area.
That rejection showed that sellers are active near the upper zone. If USD/CHF fails to reclaim 0.8070–0.8100, the current rebound may lose strength.
A break below 0.8020 would weaken the short-term structure, while a clean move below 0.8000 would suggest that the broader recovery is starting to fail.
9. Bullish Scenario
If USD/CHF holds above 0.8030–0.8020 and breaks above 0.8070–0.8100 with confirmation, buyers may push price back toward 0.8120–0.8140.
If price breaks and holds above 0.8140, the next upside target would be 0.8160–0.8200.
A sustained move above 0.8200 would confirm stronger bullish continuation.
10. Bearish Scenario
If USD/CHF rejects from 0.8070–0.8100, short-term selling pressure may return.
A break below 0.8020 could send price back toward the 0.8000 psychological level. If 0.8000 fails to hold, the pair may move lower toward 0.7960–0.7940.
A clean break below 0.7940 would weaken the bullish structure more clearly and could open the door for a broader correction.
11. Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently neutral to cautiously bullish.
The broader structure still favors buyers, but the recent rejection from the highs has made the short-term picture more cautious. Buyers need to defend 0.8000 and reclaim 0.8100 to regain stronger control.
Above 0.8100, bullish momentum may improve.
Below 0.8000, correction risk may increase.
12. Trading Plan Style Summary
Plan:
* Above 0.8100: bullish momentum may strengthen.
* Between 0.8020 and 0.8100: consolidation and recovery testing may continue.
* Below 0.8020: short-term bearish pressure may return.
* Below 0.8000: the broader recovery structure may weaken.
The key level to watch is 0.8000 on the downside and 0.8100 on the upside. These two levels may define the next directional move.
What do you think?
Will USD/CHF reclaim 0.8100 and retest the 0.8120–0.8140 resistance zone? Or will sellers defend the rebound and push the pair back below 0.8000?
Please share your view below. Is the Swiss Franc Losing Its Iron Grip on the Euro?EUR/CHF traded at 0.9147 on May 19, 2026, with the Swiss Franc sitting at historically strong levels against the Euro. The pair has spent most of 2026 in the 0.92 to 0.94 range, well below the 0.95+ levels prevalent earlier in the cycle. Several forecasters expect EUR/CHF to recover toward 0.93 to 0.95 if the ECB executes expected rate hikes in June and September, but the path is far from guaranteed. The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has reshaped the entire European macro picture, driving inflation, slowing growth, and putting both central banks under unusual pressure. The question now is whether the Franc's safe-haven premium can be unwound or whether the eurozone's stagflation backdrop will keep capital flowing to Switzerland.
Geopolitics and Geostrategy
Switzerland's traditional safe-haven role has been reinforced, not weakened, by the 2026 events. The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has produced sustained energy price shocks (Brent above $126 at peak), supply chain disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, and broad European economic uncertainty. Capital has continued flowing into Swiss assets despite zero yields, because preservation of capital matters more than yield when the geopolitical backdrop deteriorates. A potential Iran ceasefire, more stable European borders, or de-escalation in Ukraine could rapidly drain that safe-haven premium and allow EUR/CHF to lift toward the 0.93 to 0.95 range many strategists have flagged. Conversely, escalation supports continued Franc strength. The European Union continues to work on a more cohesive defense and fiscal stance, including a sharper ReArm Europe push, which over time could improve eurozone confidence and Euro positioning. None of that is enough to drive EUR/CHF higher in the near term while the war persists.
Macroeconomics and Central Bank Divergence
This is the dominant story for the pair right now, and the original article got several specifics wrong.
The ECB held its deposit facility rate at 2.00% on April 30, 2026, the third consecutive hold meeting. Eurozone inflation rose to 3% in April, driven by energy costs, with core inflation at 2.2%. Q1 2026 GDP growth slowed to 0.8% year-on-year. President Christine Lagarde explicitly described the eurozone as facing "stagflation compounded by geopolitical instability." Markets and economists increasingly expect the ECB to hike rates twice in 2026 (quarter-point moves in June and September), bringing the deposit rate to 2.50% by year-end, per the latest Bloomberg survey.
The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0.00% in March 2026, maintaining a 0.25 percentage point discount on sight deposits above the threshold. Swiss inflation edged up to 0.1% in February, with the SNB forecasting average inflation of 0.5% in 2026 and 2027, and 0.6% in 2028. Switzerland's GDP is expected to grow around 1% in 2026. Amid the Middle East conflict, the SNB signaled a greater willingness to intervene in currency markets to prevent excessive Swiss franc appreciation. This is a critical context that the original article missed. The SNB is actively committed to capping CHF strength, not letting it run.
The rate differential currently favors the Franc less than at any point in years, with EUR at 2.00% versus CHF at 0.00%. That 200 basis point gap is smaller than the historical spreads that pushed EUR/CHF above parity. If the ECB hikes twice as expected, that gap could widen to 250bp, which is the technical case for EUR/CHF recovery toward 0.93 to 0.95.
Industry Trends and Business Models
European heavy industry continues its energy transition under duress, with German manufacturing especially exposed to higher fuel costs from the Iran war. Swiss exporters in pharmaceuticals (Novartis, Roche), precision engineering, watchmaking, and luxury goods have struggled with the strong Franc, with watch and machinery exports facing margin pressure. The SNB's intervention readiness is partly a response to manufacturer concerns. Swiss pharma remains globally significant but does not "dominate" the sector. US pharma (Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Merck, J&J) accounts for a much larger share of global pharmaceutical revenue. Both economies face structural challenges, just different ones.
Corporate Resilience and Reality Check
The original framing that "Swiss enterprises easily weather severe storms without requesting state bailouts" needs significant correction. The Credit Suisse collapse and emergency UBS-led rescue of March 2023 required substantial Swiss federal guarantees and explicit state backing. Switzerland's banking system is genuinely well-regulated and conservative, but it is not immune to crises. European corporations vary widely. Some major European industrials and pharma companies are highly cash-generative and globally competitive. The cleaner contrast is between SNB's intervention-ready stance and the ECB's slower, more constrained policy response, not between blanket characterizations of Swiss versus European corporate culture.
Technology, Science, and High-Tech
The European Union is funding significant green energy and AI infrastructure investments, alongside its push for sovereign semiconductor capacity. Switzerland has world-class research in biotech, pharma, and financial technology, plus strong activity in quantum computing research (ETH Zurich, EPFL), though "dominates" overstates Switzerland's global quantum position relative to the US and China. Both blocs require cross-border capital to fund these initiatives. Technology investment matters for long-term currency fundamentals, but it is not what drives EUR/CHF on any near-term timeframe.
The Real EUR/CHF Drivers
What actually moves this pair in 2026 is a smaller, cleaner list: the ECB-SNB rate differential and its expected trajectory, eurozone versus Swiss inflation paths, the Iran war's energy spillover and any ceasefire signals, SNB intervention activity and its rhetoric, eurozone growth data and stagflation signals, Russia-Ukraine status, and global risk appetite. Cybersecurity, patent portfolios, and corporate culture differences are not meaningful drivers on a trading timeframe.
The Honest Verdict
The Franc is not losing its grip. It is currently demonstrating it. EUR/CHF at 0.9147 reflects sustained safe-haven demand under wartime conditions, ECB policy that is still well below SNB's neighbors despite the rate gap, and Swiss inflation running 30 times lower than eurozone inflation. The case for EUR/CHF recovery to 0.93 to 0.95 depends on three things happening together: ECB delivering expected hikes in June and September, the Iran war moving toward resolution, and SNB intervention staying credible enough to cap further Franc strength. If any of those fail, the pair likely stays pinned near current levels or drifts lower. The variables to watch: ECB June meeting, SNB June meeting, Iran ceasefire signals, eurozone Q2 GDP, and Swiss CPI. Anyone framing this story through cyber defenses or pharma patents is missing the actual macro drivers. Trader's Notes: USDCHF"Trader’s Notes" — brief market notes covering key observations, important price zones, and potential scenarios for trading instruments.
Now, a couple of notes about OANDA:USDCHF 👇
📌 Potential trade setup:
Priority direction: SELL
Entry zone: 0.77625
Target: 0.77275
Stop: 0.77975
📝 Notes: After the weekend, the US dollar is again supported by the Middle East escalation. However, a slight move against the US dollar is likely to be expected short-term, especially for currency pairs (most likely a manipulative move ahead of a more global rally). USDCHF currently looks like one of the most interesting pairs, both from a fundamental standpoint (both the US dollar and the franc can act as safe-haven currencies, and this pair is less speculative in the current news environment) and technically. The price is actively testing the 0.7770 support as part of a Near Retest , which points to a likely downside breakout, especially in the event of a subsequent fourth approach.
🎓 The logic behind this setup is explained in more detail in my education material, which can be found in Related publications: "Near and Far Retests: What Every Trader Should Know"
If this post was useful, feel free to boost 🚀 it and share your view in the comments 💬
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade setup based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility. Please ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk. CHFUSD: Ascending Triangle-Formation, Bearish Breakout Incoming!Hello There,
welcome to my new analysis about CHFUSD on the 4-hour timeframe perspective. In recent times I have detected interesting trading setups in the forex market that can turn out to be profitable trades, both on the short- and long-sides. One of them being CHFUSD, the forex pair is forming a considerable setup that is likely to accelerate bearishness within the upcoming times. In the current market situation, it is always good to consider also trades on the short side.
As when looking at my chart, we can watch there how CHFUSD formed this ascending triangle formation. The price action moved directly into the ascending resistance line. This ascending resistance line has been the origin of major bearish pullbacks towards the downside already several times in the past. As this level is approached again, a pullback from there on is highly likely and is going to complete the ascending triangle formation with a breakout to the downside.
Once this whole formation has been completed and the bearish pressure has emerged, CHFUSD is going to point to the lower levels in the structure. This is also going to activate the bearish target zones. Especially with a bearish acceleration below the 50-EMA, this will increase the bearish pressure and point to the final target zone. Once the bearish target zone has been reached, further assumptions about the continuation of bearish pressure need to be made.
In this manner, thank you a lot for watching!
The support is highly appreciated.
VP
CHFUSD: Massive Bear-Flag-Formation, Bearish Pressure Incoming!Hello There,
welcome to my new analysis about CHFUSD on the 4-hour timeframe perspective. In recent times I have spotted major bearish signs, both fundamentally and technically. These signs should not be underestimated in any way. With my current trading approach, I am spotting fruitful trade position opportunities on both the long and short sides. Considering CHFUSD, there will be a major trade waiting around the corner once the confirmations have emerged.
When looking at my chart, we can see there that CHFUSD is trading within this pivotal descending bearish trend channel. Within this channel, CHFUSD has major resistances within the upper boundary of the channel. From this upper boundary, CHFUSD already dropped several times towards the downside. Right now, we are witnessing that another drop towards the downside is setting up. Especially as CHFUSD approaches the upper boundary again, this is a crucial bearish condition.
Right now, CHFUSD is also developing this major bear flag formation. Such a formation is setting up a bearish wave towards the downside with a high possibility, especially once it has been completed. Within this bear flag formation, CHFUSD has major resistance levels within the resistance cluster marked in red in my chart. Especially, the 1.28 zone is a major resistance zone. When CHFUSD pulls back towards the downside and below the lower boundary of the bear flag from here on, it will complete the whole bearish formation and set up the next bearish wave.
In this manner, thank you a lot for watching!
What do you think about CHFUSD right now?
Let us know in the comments!
VP USDCHF pull-back a buy opportunity ahead of Bull Cycle.The USDCHF pair is pulling back in the aftermath of the U.S. - Iran ceasefire but this can be a buy opportunity in disguise as last week it broke above both its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which have been the major long-term Resistance Zone for exactly one year (since April 03 2026).
As a result, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) now serves as the Support and an excellent long-term buy entry, targeting the 1W MA100 (black trend-line) at 0.8270.
In addition, since a shorter term Channel Up emerged, as long as the price stays inside it, we can have a quicker additional Target at 0.80850 (+2.70% as all of its three Bullish Legs so far).
Notice also the huge Bullish Divergence on the 1W RSI for the past 1 year, which has been within a Channel Up in contrast to the market's Channel Down. A clear technical indication that the long-term trend has shifted to bullish.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 USDCHF At 'make or break' point. Will it turn bullish long-term?The USDCHF pair has been trading within an 11-month Channel Down and since January 28 2026 it's on its latest Bullish Leg. It is that Leg that last Thursday hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 03 2025 (almost 1 year).
At the same time, it hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the pattern, which is where the last three major rejections took place (January 16 2026, December 08 2025, November 25 2025 and November 05 2025). Technically, this is the most optimal Sell Entry on the medium-term as that level sits just below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which has been intact since April 2 2025, forming with the 1D MA200 the absolute technical long-term Resistance Zone.
As long as it holds, the trade is a Sell, targeting the lower Support Zone at 0.76800, as both previous Bearish Legs did once they hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
We do have however a massive Bullish Divergence on the 1W RSI, which has been trading within a Channel Up in contrast to the price's Channel Down. So if the pair breaks and closes a weekly candle above its 1W MA50, we will turn bullish (loss on the Sell will still be minimal), targeting the next technical long-term Resistance, the 1W MA100 (black trend-line) at 0.82750.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 USDCHF Major multi-year break point ahead. Position accordingly.Exactly a month ago (February 13, see chart below), we gave a massive buy signal on the USDCHF pair as the pair was trading on a similar Higher Lows bottom to the previous two bottom formations of the 11-month Channel Down pattern:
The resulting rally hit our 0.78770 Target and now is about to give a Sell Signal as the price is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That level sits exactly at the top of the 11-month Channel Down and along with the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which has been intact since April 2 2025, form the absolute technical long-term Resistance Zone.
As long as it holds, the trade is a Sell, targeting the lower Support Zone at 0.76800, as both previous Bearish Legs did once they hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. An added sell alert is the 1D RSI entering its long-term Resistance Zone, which has provided all 5 major corrections since July 30 2025.
If however the pair breaks and closes a weekly candle above its 1W MA50, we will turn bullish (loss on the Sell will still be minimal), targeting the next technical long-term Resistance, the 1W MA100 (black trend-line) at 0.82750.
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Long
