Bitcoin’s $64.3K Regime Test: CASH Until $66.5K BreaksBitcoin’s primary daily structure remains bearish, even after July’s rebound from the $57,735 low. The latest completed candle on July 28 closed at $63,851, below Machine Learning Neural Network Engine Indicator axis at $64,309, while the confirmed model state remains CASH.
That makes $64,300 the immediate decision line, not a breakout signal. The developing July 29 candle is testing this area, but it cannot confirm a regime change before the daily close.
The constructive scenario requires acceptance above the axis, followed by a daily close above $66,500. That would clear the July range highs and shift the recovery from base-building into a stronger reversal candidate.
Failure to hold $64,300 would keep the rebound corrective and expose the $57,735 base again. A break below that low invalidates the bullish base thesis.
Can BTCUSD close above $66,500 before the CASH regime forces another test of $57,735?
Gold | One More Wave or the Beginning of a Bullish Reversal?XAUUSD | 4H Elliott Wave Update
According to the higher-degree wave count, Wave IV is still expected to be in progress. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current structure may be developing a Leading Diagonal as the final part of Wave A. However, additional price action is still required before the pattern can be considered complete.
In the aggressive scenario, if Waves 1, 3, and 5 of the diagonal are all impulsive, the internal structure should follow the 5-3-5-3-5 formula. Although price has already reacted from the first target area, there is still a valid possibility that one final minor downside wave is needed to complete Wave (5).
That said, my own observations suggest that markets do not always require the final expected move. In some cases, a new impulsive sequence begins from the current region without printing one last low. Until the market provides structural confirmation, both scenarios remain valid.
In the conservative scenario, the current pattern may be interpreted as a Triple Zigzag rather than a Leading Diagonal. Since multiple Zigzags can sometimes resemble a diagonal, visual appearance alone is not enough. The internal wave structure remains the key factor.
For now, a confirmed breakout above the Base Channel is required to support the bullish scenario. Otherwise, the possibility of one final decline remains on the table.
If the Leading Diagonal is confirmed, I expect Wave B to unfold first, followed by Wave C, completing Wave IV as a classic Zigzag correction. On the other hand, if the current structure proves to be a Triple Zigzag, it could prepare the foundation for the next higher-degree Wave V.
Research Note
This analysis is based on the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle, combined with historical market observations and independent research.
Price is the outcome. Structure is the cause.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr.Nobody
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
7 days ago
Gold | One More Wave… or Has Wave B Already Begun?
Long
Education
NNBR: Multi-Year Base + Bullish Divergence ClusterNNBR: Multi-Year Base + Bullish Divergence Cluster
NNBR is showing an interesting weekly turnaround setup after a long multi-year decline and compression phase.
This is not a confirmed breakout yet. I would treat it as a conditional long setup that still needs confirmation above the descending structure.
What I see on the weekly chart
1. Multi-year compression
After the large historical moves in 2014–2018, the stock entered a long decline and then started building a base.
From 2022 to 2026, price has been moving near the lower part of the historical range. This kind of compression can become interesting when price stops making clean downside continuation and starts reacting from the same lower zone multiple times.
2. Bullish divergence cluster
Several bullish RSI divergence signals appeared near the lower part of the base.
This means price continued to pressure the lows, but RSI was no longer confirming the same downside momentum.
For me, this is not a buy signal by itself. It is an early warning that selling momentum may be weakening.
3. Descending trendline
The key level is the descending weekly structure.
A clean breakout and hold above this trendline would be the first important confirmation that the long-term downtrend pressure is weakening.
Without that breakout, the setup is still only a potential reversal attempt.
4. Volume reaction
There is also a visible volume reaction near the current base area.
For a weekly turnaround setup, I want to see volume supporting the move. A breakout without volume would be weaker. A breakout with expanding volume would make the setup more interesting.
Possible plan
This is how I would read the setup:
Aggressive idea:
– early long near the base / reclaim area
– only if price continues to hold above the lower structure
– higher risk because the breakout is not fully confirmed yet
Safer idea:
– wait for a weekly close above the descending trendline
– then look for a hold / retest of the breakout zone
– confirmation is more important than catching the exact bottom
Invalidation
The setup becomes much weaker if price loses the lower base area and fails back under the current structure.
For me, the invalidation zone is below the base. If price breaks down with follow-through, the reversal thesis is no longer valid.
Potential upside zones
I would not treat the upper green box as an immediate target. On a weekly chart, it is better to think in zones:
– first reaction zone: 5.00–6.00
– next resistance zone: 8.00–10.00
– larger historical zone: 16.00–20.00
– extended scenario: 30.00+ only if momentum fully returns
Main idea
Bullish divergence shows that downside momentum may be weakening.
The multi-year base shows that sellers may be losing control.
But the trendline still needs to break.
For me, the key is simple:
Base must hold.
Weekly structure must break.
Volume should confirm.
Until then, this remains a high-risk conditional turnaround setup.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. 
Long
Long 
Long
NVDA Made a Fresh Low. The Bear Print Just Hit Its Highest...NVDA Made a Fresh Low. The Bear Print Just Hit Its Highest
Conviction Read of the Cycle.
Yesterday's evening update flagged that the Hourly's conviction
read had held steady above CQI 80 for three sessions running.
Today it's still there. The 52-bar bear print is at CQI 82.84,
matching yesterday's reading exactly. Price dropped to 192.13
overnight - through the 197.13 shelf flagged yesterday morning,
through 196.58, into the thin structure between there and the
191.23 April low. Current 193.58 is sitting roughly 2 dollars
above that floor. The Hourly Entry Signal upgraded to FORMING.
The Daily echoes it: Q4 SHORT, 62-bar bear print at CQI 60.85,
LOW SHORT thesis with FORMING signal, ATR at 100th percentile,
EXT MODE on the SYNTH Gate. Both timeframes aligned, both
loading.
Resistance: 199.01-199.89 - the broken thesis line from below
Key resistance: 202.20-202.44 - last week's floor zone
Current price: 193.58
Support: 191.23 - the April low, current operative floor
Key support: 189.66-185.74 - structural shelves below the April low
Below that: 180.55-179.71 - deeper structural zone
Two paths from here:
The April low holds: price bounces off 191.23, the bear print
finally starts decaying without follow-through, a relief move
back toward 199.89 unfolds. The thesis line acts as ceiling.
The April low gives: price loses 191.23 with participation,
the bear prints get their confirmation, structure thins
significantly into the 180s. The Hourly's three-session
CQI-80+ conviction read gets validated.
The April low at 191.23 was the structural floor that anchored
the bottom of every NVDA chart this cycle, the same way 59,073
was BTC's anchor. BTC's anchor broke. NVDA's is being tested
directly today.
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Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
Short
USD/JPY(20260624)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Deutsche Bank research analyst Michael Hsueh stated in a report that "the Fed's repricing, coupled with strong US macroeconomic data, is the main reason for the decline in gold prices." The bank has lowered its third-quarter gold price forecast to $4,300 per ounce, a reduction of more than one-fifth from its previous forecast, and adjusted its forecast for the last three months of the year to $4,800 per ounce.
Similar adjustments were made by Goldman Sachs. Last week, the institution lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500 to $4,900 per ounce, citing its assessment that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
161.52
Support and Resistance Levels:
161.98
161.81
161.70
161.34
161.22
161.05
Trading Strategy:
If the price breaks above 161.70, consider buying with a first target price of 161.81.
If the price breaks below 161.52, consider selling with a first target price of 161.34. NVDA - Hourly and Daily Are Both Pointing Long NVDA's Hourly and Daily Are Both Pointing Long for the Second
Straight Day. The Daily Just Isn't Confident About It.
Yesterday's fresh bull announcement on the Hourly is still the
most recent print, now 7 bars old at CQJ 55.68, and the anti-
signal just flipped back to HiSwp active, meaning the system
flagged another high sweep at the top of yesterday's push to
212.71. Vol Elev is at 97th percentile on the Hourly, real
participation behind this move, not a thin drift. The Daily
agrees on direction, Q1 LONG, PARTIAL signal loaded, IMP at
2/5 in MIXED mode, but the Daily's own ACE Score is failing
at 1 and its standing announcement is still the old 58-bar
bear print at CQJ 65.03, which has never been replaced. The
Hourly flipped. The Daily hasn't yet.
Resistance: 211.85-212.71 -- yesterday's high and prior cluster
Key resistance: 213.43-214.58 -- next structure above
Current price: 210.33
Support: 209.34-210.04 -- yesterday's breakout shelf
Key support: 207.12-208.2 -- deeper support from earlier this week
Thesis line: 199.89 -- the June low zone
Two paths from here:
Continuation (matching both timeframes' LONG direction):
The Daily's standing bear announcement finally gets overridden
by a fresh bull print, ACE Score clears its fail state, and
the PARTIAL signal upgrades. Price clears 212.71, opens
213.43-214.58.
HiSwp resolves bearish (matching the anti-signal pattern):
The high sweep flag leads to a reversal the way it has on
validated instruments historically. Price fails to hold
209.34, Vol Elev enters on a down move, opens 207.12.
The MIRROR state on the Daily is still reading DISBELIEF.
That's now been persistent across multiple sessions, even as
the direction reads shifted from SHORT to LONG underneath it.
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Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. Long 
Long 
The Elephant Jungle 5/1/26 Page 1Well, the Bulls did it, they finally got a 1M body close back inside the Macro Range. That alone is a big deal, no way around it.
Now the next mission is clear, reclaim the Macro VAL. But let’s not act like this is going to be easy, getting to 85k is going to be a real test for the Bulls.
Yeah, they got a clean lift off, and it looked good, but they are flying straight into resistance. There is a firmament sitting right above their heads, and it is not there for decoration.
So before we start celebrating like the job is finished, let’s slow it down and take a closer look.
Let’s drop down to the 1W time frame and really take a look at what is standing in the Bulls way. XAUUSD — Compression at Support Before DecisionXAUUSD — Compression at Support Before Decision
Price is now sitting right at a major support zone while being compressed by a descending trendline, forming a classic squeeze structure. This is where the market decides expansion.
Market Structure
We clearly have:
• Lower highs → bearish pressure from the trendline
• Equal lows / strong reaction at support → buyers defending
This creates a tight range (compression) → volatility is building → breakout is coming.
Key Zones
• Resistance: 4,730 – 4,740 (supply zone)
• Support: 4,660 – 4,665 (demand base)
• Breakdown level: 4,645
• Lower target: 4,625
Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Trap → Expansion Up)
If price holds support and breaks the descending trendline:
→ Liquidity sweep at the lows
→ Reclaim 4,680
→ Push toward 4,720 → 4,740
This would confirm a fake bearish structure and transition into a bullish move.
Bearish Scenario (Continuation)
If support fails cleanly:
→ Break below 4,660
→ Retest becomes resistance
→ Continuation toward 4,645 → 4,625
This aligns with the current lower high structure.
Read the Intent
Right now this is not a trend — it’s a setup.
• Support holding = accumulation / trap building
• Support breaking = momentum continuation
Conclusion
This is a decision zone.
Don’t predict — react to the breakout.
Compression → Liquidity → Expansion.
