ETH at $4,100 – Can Bulls Defend Key Support Before FOMC..?ETH + FOMC = Volatility Ahead ? 🔥
Ethereum at Make-or-Break Zone: $4,100 Support in Focus!
Ethereum (ETH/USDT) on the 4H timeframe is showing a decisive battle between bulls and bears. After topping near $4,700, ETH has been in a steady downtrend, respecting the descending trendline.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
* Immediate Support: $4,100 – $4,150 (0.5 Fib retracement)
* Major Support: $3,950 – $4,000 (0.618 Fib retracement)
* Resistance Zone: $4,300 – $4,350 (descending trendline)
* Major Resistance: $4,600 – $4,700 (recent swing high)
📈 Bullish Scenario
✅ A breakout above $4,300 trendline resistance could trigger strong momentum toward $4,500 - $4,600.
✅ Holding $4,100 support will keep buyers in control.
📉 Bearish Scenario
❌ If ETH fails to hold $4,100, expect a deeper retracement toward $4,000 (0.618 Fib).
❌ A break below $3,950 may extend the fall to $3,700 – $3,600.
⚠️ Market Note
📌 Today’s FOMC meeting could heavily impact the crypto market trend.
Expect volatility as Fed commentary on interest rates may guide ETH’s next major move.
⚖️ Conclusion
ETH is at a critical support zone where the next move will define short-term direction.
* Above $4,300 → Bulls regain control.
* Below $4,100 → Bears target $4,000 and lower.
Technical Analysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / CBOE:SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News
Jackson Hole in focus; dollar firms. Traders lean ~84% odds of a 25bp cut in September; watch TVC:DXY vs. $SPY/ NASDAQ:TLT as Powell risk approaches.
Retail baton passes from HD to LOW/TGT. After HD’s hold-guidance rally, attention shifts to Lowe’s/Target for read-throughs on DIY vs. pro spend and tariff pass-through.
Risk tone jittery into minutes. Tech led a pullback Tuesday; positioning lightens ahead of Fed minutes and Jackson Hole.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET)
7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). Prior: +10.9% w/w (8/13). Why it matters: housing demand pulse → rates/affordability → AMEX:XHB and growth tone.
10:30 AM — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status. Prior crude change: +3.036M bbl. Why it matters: oil balance → gasoline/diesel → inflation & AMEX:XLE path.
1:00 PM — U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction. Typical close: 1:00 ET; also 17-week bill today. Why it matters: term-premium & risk appetite; tails/stop-throughs can shake $TLT/$TNX.
2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (July 29–30). Watch for: depth of cut debate, tariffs → inflation, labor cooling. Why it matters: reprices path-of-rates across curve and equities.
Earnings (before open): LOW, TGT, TJX, ADI (+ others). Why it matters: U.S. consumer & capex reads; category mix shifts. Lowe’s call 9:00 AM.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #FOMCMinutes #JacksonHole #DXY #TLT #XLE #LOW #TGT #TJX #ADI
LTC long settupLTC is retracing to a rising support around 110. I will be entering long at 110 with a 1/5 RR settup targeting the top rising resitance line. The stop loss will be set at the 101.19.
RR:1/5
TP: 137.08
SL: 101.19
Potential Percentage Gain: %24.5
Potential Percentage Loss: %7.9
Not financial advice. Do your own DD. Thanks for viewing the idea.
XAUUSD Update | Gold Builds Energy Ahead of FOMCGold continues to consolidate within a tight range, with selling pressure becoming more visible. With just over a day left until the FOMC meeting – a key event that could set the tone for the next major trend – the market seems to be loading up for a liquidity sweep.
👉 While price action may look messy and indecisive, for KeyLevel traders, this is the perfect hunting ground. Liquidity zones are being respected with precision, offering clean setups for those who understand MMFLOW structures.
📉 Market Outlook
Primary Bias: Short-term corrective downside.
Possible Play: Liquidity grab into the 331x area before a strong rebound higher.
🔑 Key Trading Levels
Sell Zone: 3340 – 3345 | Tight SL: 4 – 5 pts
🎯 Targets: 3325 → 3317 → stretch 3310
📌 Note: Stay disciplined around these KeyLevels. One sharp BreakOut post-FOMC could trigger the next big directional move.
✨ As always with MMFLOW: KeyLevels = Profits ✅
🔥 Follow MMFLOW TRADING to catch daily setups, smart money footprints, and precision KeyLevels.
Gold – US Session Trend UpdateGold – US Session Trend Update
During today’s US session, gold once again rejected selling pressure around the 3326 zone. This is the third time price has bounced from this level, and once again it quickly recovered, gaining more than 10 dollars after failing to confirm a bearish continuation.
From a trendline perspective, the price is consolidating within a narrowing channel. This typically signals that a stronger move is approaching once the market breaks out of the channel. While a breakout may not happen immediately today, this setup provides a clear framework for entering trades once confirmation comes, regardless of timing.
The key resistance to watch sits at 3345. A strong H1 close above this level would confirm renewed bullish momentum and open the way for further upside. On the other hand, if 3326 is broken decisively, especially after holding three times, the market could see a sharp downward continuation in line with Dow Theory.
At the moment, traders may consider short-term opportunities within the 3326–3345 range, particularly on lower intraday timeframes like M5, to capture quick profits. Once price breaks decisively out of the channel, swing entries in the direction of the breakout become more favourable.
Successful setups often come from patience. Waiting for the market to confirm direction before committing to larger positions will always provide better odds in the long run.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Trendline #Forex #UKTrading #SwingTrading #Scalping
GBPAUD: Bullish Wave Will Continue 🇬🇧🇦🇺
On a today's live stream, we discussed GBPAUD.
The price successfully violated both a falling trend line
and a strong horizontal resistance on a daily.
The next historic resistance is 2.095.
It will be the next goal for the bulls.
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XAUUSD: Key Support Under ThreatXAUUSD is currently trading in a clear downward channel. After failing to break the strong resistance at 3,375, the price has reversed and is now testing the important support at 3,330. If this support level is broken, the bearish trend is likely to continue towards the next targets at 3,320 and 3,280.
The market structure indicates that selling pressure is dominant, with the price consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. A break of 3,330 will confirm a strong decline, opening up selling opportunities with targets at lower support levels.
Traders should keep an eye on the support at 3,330; if broken, a sell order should be prioritized, with the next targets at 3,320 and 3,280.
GBPNZD: Important Breakout & Bullish Wave Ahead 🇬🇧🇳🇿
Important event happened on GBPNZD.
The price successfully violated a major daily resistance cluster
and closed above that.
We see a strong bullish reaction to that after its retest.
I think that, with a high probability, the market will continue rising.
Next resistance - 2.295
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 19, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 19, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
Global markets tread water ahead of Jackson Hole. Asian equities slipped while European futures edged up on signs of diplomatic progress in the Russia–Ukraine crisis, as markets await Fed Chair Powell’s keynote. AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX still anchored to central-bank risk tone.
Jackson Hole in focus. Investors are positioning for signals of a dovish tilt or rate cut cues in Powell’s speech later this week—data releases are in the shadow of event risk.
Home Depot earnings loom. Retail heavyweight Home Depot reports today; strong results could buoy equities, while a miss would fan caution on consumer resilience.
💼 Key Market Developments
Meta and Palo Alto highlight tech divergences. Meta shares slipped 2.3% on AI-leaning costs and metaverse skepticism, while Palo Alto surged 5% with robust Q4 and 2026 outlook—creating bifurcated leadership in tech.
Stagflation & AI risk lurk. Analysts warn of stagflation threats and fading AI momentum as catalysts for a broader pullback—S&P 500 still up ~10% YTD, but vulnerable.
⏱ Key Data Releases & Events (ET)
📅 Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Canada Inflation Rate (July): Expected 2.0% y/y — a minor but global inflation cue
U.S. Building Permits (July): Forecast ~1.39M — housing sector signpost ahead of Powell’s speech
Corporate Highlight:
Home Depot (HD) earnings — earnings and commentary on inflation, tariffs, demand dynamics
⚠ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #JacksonHole #Fed #SPY #SPX #HD #HomeDepot #JacksonHole #inflation #earnings #tech #AI #SP500
Bearish move anticipation for GJ.Based on JPYX recent move on the weekly TF, price was seen to have been able to enter into the order block as seen in the shaded area from the video. Transposing to 4hr TF, price has also been able to retrace into the 4hr bullish OB shown in the video. I'm expecting a a massive bearish move for XXXJPY pairs most especially EJ, GJ, & CADJ.
What are your thoughts on this?
Bitcoin Dominance Breaks Out: Altcoins in Danger?🔎 BTC Dominance (BTC.D) – 4H Analysis
• The 5-wave decline has completed right at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (59.1%), confirming a potential bottom.
• A contracting triangle (A–B–C–D–E) has formed and just broke to the upside, coinciding with the breakout of the descending channel.
⸻
📈 Main Scenario
• With this breakout, BTC dominance is entering a new bullish phase.
• Next targets:
• 60.8% – 61.0% (key Fibonacci resistance + channel top)
• If broken, possible extension to 61.4% – 62.0%
⸻
⚠️ Implications for Altcoins
• Rising BTC dominance usually means capital is rotating into Bitcoin → leading to heavy sell-offs in altcoins.
• Alt traders should be cautious: this move can trigger a broad correction across the altcoin market.
⸻
📉 Alternative Scenario
• If BTC.D falls back below 59.3%, the breakout may turn into a fakeout, and a retest of lower levels could follow.
⸻
✅ Conclusion:
The breakout above the descending channel is a strong signal of trend reversal. As long as BTC.D stays above 59.3%, the path toward 61%+ is favored. This could mark the beginning of a tough phase for altcoins.
GBPCHF: Strong Bearish Pattern 🇬🇧🇨🇭
GBPCHF may retrace more from the underlined blue daily resistance.
A breakout of a neckline of a head and shoulders pattern that
occurred on Friday provides a strong bearish confirmation.
Closest support - 1.09
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EURGBP: Up Move From Support Confirmed 🇪🇺🇬🇧
Odds are high that EURGBP will continue rising
after a test of a major daily support cluster.
The price violated a resistance line of an expanding wedge pattern
on an hourly time frame, indicating a strong intraday bullish sentiment.
Goal - 0.865
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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 18–22, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 18–22, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏔️ Jackson Hole (Thu–Sat): Chair Powell headlines the Kansas City Fed symposium—path-of-rates + growth vs. inflation = front-page risk for AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:DXY $TLT.
📝 FOMC Minutes (Wed): Deeper read on July meeting dissents and tariff/inflation views—rate-cut odds in play.
🛒 Retail Heavyweights: Earnings updates from NYSE:WMT NYSE:HD NYSE:TGT NYSE:LOW NASDAQ:ROST = real-time consumer pulse for AMEX:XRT and broader risk tone.
🏠 Housing Check: Starts/Permits + Existing Home Sales frame construction demand and affordability; watch AMEX:XHB and long rates.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📊
📅 Tue, Aug 19
• Housing Starts & Building Permits (8:30 AM)
📅 Wed, Aug 20
• FOMC Minutes (July meeting) (2:00 PM)
📅 Thu, Aug 21
• Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM)
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM)
• S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mfg/Services) (9:45 AM)
• Existing Home Sales (Jul) (10:00 AM)
• Conference Board Leading Index (10:00 AM)
• Jackson Hole Symposium begins (all day; speeches through Sat)
📅 Fri, Aug 22
• No major U.S. releases (focus: Jackson Hole headlines + positioning)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #FOMC #JacksonHole #housing #PMI #retailsales #SPY #SPX #DXY #TLT #XHB #XRT
GBPUSD🔹 The chart is bearish on the daily time frame and bullish on the 4-hour time frame
🔸If the price stabilizes above 1.35886 in the pullback to the specified areas, you can be a buyer
🔹If the price goes below 1.35206 from here, in the pullback to area 1, it is a low-risk sale
🔸Area 2 is not bad for high-risk people to sell
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) – Potential Pullback Toward 112k Support
On the 3H chart, Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness after failing to hold above the mid-channel resistance. Price action is rolling over, with a clear break of the short-term trendline and rejection at ~118.5k.
🔹 The structure suggests BTC is forming a corrective leg, with the next major liquidity pool resting near 112,000 – 111,500 (highlighted green zone). This level also aligns with:
• Prior demand block & consolidation base
• Lower boundary of the short-term channel
• Key Fibonacci retracement cluster
If buyers fail to defend this zone, we could see acceleration toward the deeper supports around 109k.
📊 Scenario Path (Orange Projection):
• Short-term consolidation under 118k
• Breakdown continuation toward 114.5k (intermediate support)
• Final sweep into 112k liquidity zone before any strong rebound attempt
⚠️ Risk factors:
• A reclaim of 121.5k invalidates the bearish scenario and opens the door to retesting 125k.
• Watch funding rates & BTC.D — a sudden risk-off move in alts could accelerate the drop.
🎯 Trading Outlook (Not Financial Advice):
• Short bias while below 118.5k–121.5k
• Main target: 112k
• Tight stops required due to volatility
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my structure analysis and important supports & resistances
for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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GBP/NZD POTENTIONAL SHORT OPPORTUNITYThis is an idea for GBPNZD's potential short opportunity based on what the technicals indicate.
The trend has been emphasising its bullish approach for almost three years.
Price respected almost 11 times due to the strong resistance within 150 days between 2.265 & 2.275 and bounced off bullish OB on the daily chart and FVG on the weekly chart.
An institutional sharp decline on the weekly chart, followed by a clear wedge, can support a further drop once swept by bearish daily OB. A breakout to the micro wedge (orange) within a macro wedge can also help further down move.
Given that a bearish pin bar followed by a bearish doji is a strong warning signal of potential reversal or bearish continuation that appears inside the micro wedge.
TP1 is considered the first support at the bottom, where the daily OB and the weekly FVG meet at around 2.22000 or the area close to the trendline. If the price breaks through the trendline, TP2 and TP3 will be expected to be achieved.
TP2 may be located at the micro accumulation around 2.20000, and TP3 at the following major support around 2.15000-2.17000 that previously acted as both support and resistance.
Good luck and have a great weekend.
NASDAQ is Nearing the Intersection of The Trend with Resistance!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a selling opportunity around 23,875 zone, NASDAQ is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 23.875 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDJPY Sell Setup – Watching 147.600 Key Zone Next WeekHey Traders,
In the coming week, I’m monitoring USDJPY for a potential sell opportunity near 147.600.
Trend: Still in a clear downtrend.
Current move: Price is correcting upward into resistance.
Key level: 147.600 – a major support-turned-resistance area.
If price rejects this zone with confirmation, it could resume the bearish move. I’ll be looking for signs of weakness (candlestick rejection, momentum shift) before entering.
What do you think? Will USDJPY hold below 147.600 or push higher first?
Trade safe,
Joe