NZDCHF: Bearish Wave is Coming 🇳🇿🇨🇭
Quick update for NZDCHF.
As the trend remains globally bearish,
I still believe that the pair will drop soon.
With a high probability, the price will reach 0.448 level soon.
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Technical Analysis
EURNZD: Bullish Movement Confirmed 🇪🇺🇳🇿
There is a high probability that EURNZD will continue rising
after a test of a strong rising trend line on a 4H.
A double bottom pattern formation on that on an hourly time frame
confirms a strong bullish sentiment.
Expect a rise at least to 2.0585
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Eicher Motors – Breakout Trade SetupPrice has broken out of a 2-month consolidation range (₹6,880–₹7,200) with strong volume.
This indicates momentum continuation toward upper resistance levels.
✅ Buy Above: ₹7,200 (Breakout confirmation zone)
🎯 Targets (Swing / Short-Term):
T1 – ₹7,227
T2 – ₹7,336
T2 – ₹7,468
🛡️ Stop-Loss: ₹6,880 (below range support + 20EMA area)
⏳ Duration:
5–10 trading sessions (short-term swing trade)
📈 Reasoning (Professional View):
Breakout from a long consolidation box
Strong bullish candle + volume expansion
RSI breakout above 60 shows momentum shift
Above 20EMA after a sharp reversal
education purpose only
NASDAQ DEC 2025, Next week will unveil it all.I often like to use this approach, where I start from the most generic timeframe that still carries importance, moving into smaller timeframes narrowing the timeframe at each step, finally concluding with a short-term trade opportunity.
This post focuses solely on technical analysis, price action and trend behavior on the NDX. No fundamental expectations or macroeconomic interpretations are included.
I will be updating this post as trade opportunities develop.
A summary of this idea is provided at the end.
--- Long-Term Behavior ---
Long term outlook indicates that NDX had a strong bullish momentum until now, it pushed above the almost 5 year bullish trend marked with orange lines.
However, before it pushed above, NDX experienced a sharp decline. (marked with yellow circle)
But price carried back up with the yellow trend and created a much stronger bullish movement which managed to push further.
Now that stronger bullish movement is also over, NDX should be falling back for a retest. The last monthly candle was possibly the beginning of that retest movement.
After the retest two scenarios are possible, either it continues the bullish movement with a much higher pace or price fails to hold the retest and falls back toward the lower boundary of the previous long-term trend.
-- Short-Term Behavior --
In this section, I will be investigating the short-term movements to better predict a possible trade opportunity.
If we zoom into the yellow trend, the price was following a path estimated with the purple lines. Which also justifies the last months harsh fallback.
I expect NDX to start moving towards the lower boundary of the trend marked with yellow. (also, weekly RSI shows clear decrease in bullish momentum, indicating the yellow trend is coming to an end)
With all these in mind, to further predict the next 2-3 weeks movement, zooming into the last couple of months. NDX's last bearish movement, which I have shown with blue trend, can go two ways which the next weeks price movement will unveil. If the next week starts up bullish and the price fails to go down further NDX may rapidly rise. On the other hand, If it forms a steeper downtrend which I have shown in the second snapshot, it may possibly keep moving down for the long-term retest.
note that the trend drawings are estimations and may not be totally accurate.
-- Summary and Final Verdict --
Next week, we should see a clear directional bias for NDX
Bearish scenario: If price continues downward and establishes a steeper trend (as shown in the image), NDX is likely heading toward a full retest of the long-term breakout area.
Target: ~22,000
Bullish scenario: If the index shows clear signs of reversal and rejects further downside, a swift recovery toward previous highs is possible.
Target: ~26,500
I will be updating the post as we get a clearer image...
$SPY and $SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 24 to Nov 28, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY and SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 24 to Nov 28, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Shutdown backlog week: Most major September reports finally drop on Tuesday and Wednesday — Retail Sales, PPI, Durable Goods — all of which normally move markets but are arriving late due to the October shutdown.
🏠 Housing and consumer read-through: Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence, and Pending Home Sales give traders a real-time read on the health of housing and spending as the holiday season begins.
📉 Liquidity thinning: Thanksgiving week historically brings lighter volume and sharper moves when data surprises.
📊 Key Data and Events (ET)
Below are only the trader-relevant items, with delayed reports clearly marked.
TUESDAY, NOV 25 — The Big Data Dump
⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Delayed Sept)
Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 0.6 forecast)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales ex-Autos (Delayed Sept)
Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 0.7 forecast)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index PPI (Delayed Sept)
Actual: 0.3 percent
Year over year: 2.6 percent
⏰ 8:30 AM — Core PPI (Delayed Sept)
Prior: 0.3 percent
Current: Not available due to shutdown
⏰ 8:30 AM — Core PPI Year over Year
Actual: 2.8 percent
⏰ 9:00 AM — Case Shiller Home Price Index, 20-City (Sept)
Actual: Not available
Forecast: 1.6 percent
⏰ 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (Delayed Aug)
Actual: 0.1 percent
⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Nov)
Actual: 93.4 (vs 94.6 forecast)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Oct)
Actual: 0.0 percent
WEDNESDAY, NOV 26
⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)
Actual: 225,000 (vs 220,000 forecast)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Delayed Sept)
Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 2.9 percent prior)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods ex-Transportation (Delayed Sept)
Actual: 0.4 percent
THURSDAY, NOV 27
🦃 Thanksgiving — No economic releases
FRIDAY, NOV 28
⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Nov)
Forecast: 43.8
⚠️ Note: Many September reports are still delayed due to the federal government shutdown from Oct 1 to Nov 12. All delayed items are explicitly labeled above.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #macro #trading #stocks #inflation #consumer #PPI #retailsales #housing #markets
XAGUSD Silver Outlook (Count 2)Here is my primary view on FX_IDC:XAGUSD . This is an updated view taking in to account the monthly time frame chart which i have recently shared, i may work on publishing the monthly idea soon.
In this outlook silver is currently close to working through a series of wave 4's and 5's. As I mention on the chart if the projected levels change but the sequence is accurate then I’ll be happy with that.
I have added some more comments in the chart regarding the Elliott wave guideline of alternation, which we should consider when forecasting future price action.
In line with the monthly chart, this outlook now shows the $87 target, and the analysis behind it. I have changed the wave degrees to reflect this current impulsive rally being in the cyan primary degree sitting under the purple cycle degree wave III.
More comments on the chart.
NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK: HOLDS 26000, EYES ON 26277–26600Nifty closed at 26068, staying firmly above the key psychological level of 26000. The index made a high of 26246 and a low of 25856, again respecting my broader range of 26400–25400.
Bias: Bullish above 26000, cautious below 25850.
If Nifty sustains above 26000, upside continuation towards 26277 (ATH), 26492 (important Fibonacci level), and 26600 remains possible.
Below this week’s low of 25856, weakness can extend towards 25600.
Expected range for the coming week: 26600–25600 .
Sector View:
Last week I highlighted strength in PSU Banks, Private Banks, Auto, and Metals.
PSU index gave up early gains and closed flat. Auto ended the week 1% higher, showing sustained momentum. Metals fell 3% and closed at the weekly low, signalling pressure.
For Nifty to move higher, PSU and Private Banks along with Auto must remain strong. Metals need to avoid fresh weekly lows to prevent broader drag on sentiment.
BANKNIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK: STRONG CLOSE BUT WITH CAUTION
BankNifty posted an all-time high weekly close but formed a shooting star candle, indicating possible exhaustion.
If BankNifty sustains above 59267, it can extend towards 60087 (important Fibonacci level).
Below 58600, downside may open towards 57800–57700.
Expected range: 60000–57700.
S&P 500 WEEKLY OUTLOOK: WATCH FOR MONTHLY PATTERN CONFIRMATION
S&P500 closed at 6602, down 130 points from last week.
If the index sustains above 6700, the uptrend can resume towards 6840, 6881, 6930, and 7000.
However, if the monthly candle confirms a bearish engulfing pattern, a 10–14% correction from current levels becomes possible. Traders should consider hedging long positions.
Overall Market View:
Nifty is holding above a critical level and remains positioned for a breakout if sectors align. BankNifty needs confirmation above 59267 for further upside. Global cues from S&P500 will be important as a bearish monthly pattern could impact risk sentiment.
LUMN preparing the next step or just warming upLUMN returned to the key accumulation zone near 6.63 and held above this support. The retest created a potential reversal structure on the daily chart. Divergence and increasing volume confirm the presence of demand. A breakout above 7.65 will confirm the beginning of an impulse toward 11.95 and later toward the extension area near 17.27.
L umen Technologies is a major provider of telecommunications and cloud services with a wide data center network. The company serves corporate clients and government institutions with a focus on network infrastructure cyber security and data transmission.
Fundamental picture as of November 23
Lumen maintains stable cash flow and continues to reduce its debt burden. Management improved its profit outlook. Network modernization reduces operational expenses and gradually increases margins. Corporate demand remains stable which supports long term recovery. Revenue growth remains moderate and is still affected by competition and legacy contracts.
Technical view
As long as the price stays above the zone near 6.30 the accumulation structure remains valid. A confirmed breakout above 7.65 will open the path toward 11.95 while a move above that level will allow development toward 17.27. The bullish scenario remains valid while price stays above demand.
Market mood
LUMN looks like the speaker who stayed silent for a long time then suddenly raised a hand. Now the audience listens.
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis for Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest support and resistance analysis
for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading next week.
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Disney Stock Breakdown: Hidden Bull Flag and the Next Big MovePrice continues to trade inside the long-term parallel channel drawn from the higher timeframe structure. This channel has been respected for several years, and price is still moving within the same range.
On the monthly chart, price is below the 50-EMA, which increases the probability of a deeper retracement toward the 200-EMA. The global downtrendline, built from the major lows, was broken by a strong two-month bullish impulse. Current price action suggests the market may be forming a retest of that breakout zone.
On the weekly timeframe, price is trading below both the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, signaling potential continuation to the downside before buyers regain momentum. MACD and RSI both point lower, supporting the expectation of a pullback. A reaction around the weekly RSI 30 zone is likely.
A bull flag structure is developing. The corrective move is slower than the preceding impulse, indicating buyers are consolidating. If a breakout occurs near the expected zone, the pattern’s measured move suggests a potential rally equal to the height of the flagpole, aligning closely with the next major resistance level.
Another important detail: upward swings inside the channel have progressively shortened, signaling weakening seller control and an increasing breakout probability.
Selling volume has also decreased week-over-week, and the company’s latest report came out positive, adding additional bullish context once the correction completes.
Overall, the base scenario: further downside into the retest area, followed by a potential bullish breakout if the flag pattern confirms.
USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 156.700 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 156.700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD: Important Supply Zone Ahead 🇬🇧🇺🇸
There is a high probability that GBPUSD will drop
from the underlined supply zones based on a recently
broken daily support and a falling trend line.
Expect a down movement at least to 1.3024
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ETH 1D: correction unfolding or just a warm-up?Ethereum continues to trade within a clear bearish structure: after breaking below key daily moving averages, the decline accelerated, pushing the price into the 2720–2800 zone an area that previously acted as a short-term reversal cluster. The trendline from the recent top is broken, and a retest of the 3600–3700 resistance (0.5–0.618 Fib) remains the key scenario before any continuation of the downtrend. Only a confirmed breakout above 3700 would shift the structure back to bullish.
A deeper correction target sits around 2360–2400, where symmetry projections and previous accumulation zones converge.
Fundamental snapshot (Nov 22): network activity is stable, but downward pressure persists due to lower transaction fees and reduced validator revenue. Capital inflows remain weak, and ETH’s dominance continues to erode against L2 networks and alternative L1s. The market is waiting for strong catalysts such as real-world asset tokenization and institutional adoption. In the short term, sentiment leans neutral-to-bearish, supporting the probability of a move toward 2360–2400.
As long as ETH remains below 3600–3700, the bearish scenario holds priority. A breakout above 3700 would flip the structure, but current price action still favors continuation of the correction.
Ethereum is full of surprises - yet price levels tend to be much more disciplined than traders.
Understanding Forex Money Flow: Risk-on & Risk-offWhen it comes to Forex, most traders focus on technicals, chart patterns, or indicators. But “money flow” — the force that truly moves price — is often overlooked. If you want to read the market like a pro, you must understand Risk-on and Risk-off: the two sentiment states that drive global capital.
Today, let’s break them down clearly, practically, and in a way you can apply immediately.
🔥 What Is Risk-on?
“Risk-on” appears when the market is optimistic, investors seek risk, and money flows strongly into high-return assets.
Signals of a Risk-on Environment:
Strong stock market rallies
Capital shifts into riskier assets
Bond yields rise
Positive economic news or geopolitical easing
Assets That Benefit in Forex:
AUD, NZD, CAD (commodity currencies)
GBP, EUR (when the economy is stable)
Bitcoin, oil, and equities also tend to rise
Risk-on = “The market is excited → money flows into high-yield assets”.
💥 What Is Risk-off?
“Risk-off” occurs when the market fears uncertainty, causing money to move toward safe-haven assets.
Signals of a Risk-off Environment:
Stock markets fall sharply
Money exits risky assets
Gold spikes
USD and JPY strengthen
Negative economic news, war, inflation, or political instability
Assets That Benefit in Forex:
USD, JPY, CHF
Gold (XAUUSD)
U.S. government bonds
Risk-off = “The market is scared → money runs to safety”.
❓ Why Forex Traders MUST Understand Risk-on / Risk-off
No matter what indicator you use, the market ultimately reacts to major capital flow.
Understanding these two states helps you:
Trade with market sentiment → dramatically increases win rate
Avoid entering trades against the money flow → fewer “pointless stop-loss hits”
Identify strong/weak currencies → choose high-probability setups
Many perfect technical setups fail simply because they go against global money flow.
📌 How to Apply This Immediately in Your Forex Trading
1. Check the News → Identify Sentiment
Good news? Strong GDP? Stable markets? → Risk-on
Bad news? War? Inflation? Hawkish Fed? → Risk-off
2. Compare Currency Strength
Simple formula:
Risk-on → prioritize BUY AUD, NZD, CAD
Risk-off → prioritize BUY USD, JPY, CHF
3. Follow the Trend — Avoid Fighting Money Flow
The strongest trends often come from shifts between Risk-on and Risk-off.
Examples:
Bad news → JPY strengthens → XXXJPY pairs fall hard
Risk-on returns → USD weakens → gold rises quickly
Follow the money flow, and you’re already ahead of 80% of traders.
🧠 Conclusion – If You Want to Trade Smart, Trade With the Money Flow
Risk-on and Risk-off aren’t just theory — they’re the compass that reveals market psychology, which is the foundation of every trend.
Want to trade like Smart Money?
→ Watch where the money is moving, not just where the candles are going.
Gold at a Turning Point: Will It Rise or Fall?As we zoom in and take a closer look at how GOLD is moving, one thing becomes immediately clear:
The market has just shown a powerful upward surge, but now something intriguing is happening. The price is compressing, forming a tight, small triangle, a sign that the market is building up energy. In moments like this, there are usually two potential paths, but given the bullish context, I can almost feel that a breakout to the upside is the more likely scenario.
What do you think? Do you agree with me?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments! And trust me, joining the TradingView community is one of the best ways to improve your skills as a trader every single day.
Just a reminder: this isn't financial advice, but rather my personal take on the chart.
ETCUSDT.P:short setup from daily support 13.425BINANCE:ETCUSDT.P is dropping alongside Bitcoin. Currently, the price has hit a strong level and started "grinding" it. While this is typically a messy signal, there is structure within this chop, as a clear local level has formed at 13.425, offering a potential short setup. Although the asset has already covered a significant range today, I am keeping it on watch. If the price continues to consolidate tightly without pulling away, or if we see a weak correction followed by a smooth re-approach, I will await my entry trigger.
Key factors for this scenario:
Global & local trend alignment
Price void / low liquidity zone beyond level
Correlation with the market
Volatility contraction on approach
Immediate retest
Prolonged consolidation
No reaction after a false break
Factors that contradict this scenario:
Exhaustive move (approaching from afar)
Was this analysis helpful? Leave your thoughts in the comments and follow to see more.
Uranium Energy Corp Weekly Outlook (Count 1)Here is my weekly outlook on AMEX:UEC .
UEC is one of my bigger holdings, I've added at various times as shown on the chart (see green dashed lines).
In this outlook i am viewing the price action from the lows in Mar 2020 to the end point of wave (1) as a leading diagonal pattern. After that we have seen wave (2) and another wave 1 and 2 in the red degree (red wave 2 may not be complete yet).
Are we next going to see a breakout in red wave 3? the case for this will be helped if the COMEX:UX2! Uranium Futures chart plays out as predicted along with LSE:YCA & TSX:U.UN ...see my linked charts
More comments on the chart!
Note: My analysis is more focused on price levels as opposed to wave duration, so bear that in mind if you see a particular price level at a certain date in the future and think i'm rigid on both price and time.
XAUUSDbased on tecnical only the breakout and creating new low or high will have the new confirmation what gold really up to? considering as an this week gold had played side ways and din break the inside resistent and support. lets see how gold close as weekly candle.
clear draw on the chart so take a good look and understand.
what you think leave a your comment below.
BTCUSDwhat a hug drop base drop, as my analysis i see continustion drop on btcusd after the confermation or next (nfp) as i have draw some on chart it may help to understand that support and liquidity and new low has been created, now pull back..
let me know what you all thinking drop your comment .
safe trade,
BTCSince my first forecast regarding the BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P decline 2 months ago, the asset has dropped by 27%.
As of today, my global outlook on the market remains bearish. The first significant target is 78,200.2. Once reached, it will be necessary to assess the character of the price movement there.
While we move toward this target, the entire market will also likely head down. This creates excellent opportunities to profit, as the market is moving rather than standing still.
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LYFT: The Hidden Gem in My October Top 3 PicksAs I’ve mentioned in my recent videos, LYFT is one of my top 3 priority stocks for October — and for good reason.
The fundamentals have exploded while the price is still lagging far behind.
🔸 Fundamentals
EPS growth has been massive .
– In March, EPS was up +128% YoY,
– and by June, it jumped to +234% YoY.
EPS has finally moved into positive territory , which is a strong signal.
Revenue continues to rise steadily, and EPS literally took off while the price hasn’t followed yet.
To put it in perspective — when LYFT traded around $60, EPS was negative .
Now, EPS is many times higher, but the stock still trades far below those levels.
Even emission has stopped increasing (we saw –0.25% in June 2025), and the forward P/E is only 15.3 ,
which is extremely low for this kind of EPS acceleration.
→ In short: LYFT looks deeply undervalued from a fundamental standpoint.
🔸 Technical Picture
Technically, LYFT has just closed a local gap , exactly as expected.
We are currently finishing the fourth sub-wave of the third global wave .
This means the fifth wave is coming next, and the current target around $70 represents only the peak of the third sub-wave — there is still additional upside expected beyond $70.
In the short term, we could see a retest around $18 ,
followed by the next major move — closing the May 2022 gap near $30 , forming the third wave of this cycle.
After that, some consolidation is likely in the $20–30 range,
followed by the next impulse targeting $50–70 .
This will be the fourth wave pullback, eventually leading into the fifth wave breakout above $70 ,
with potential for even higher upside as the global third wave continues.
Summary
Overall, LYFT shows a perfect mix of improving fundamentals and bullish technical structure.
As I’ve said in my latest videos, this stock could take off soon —
and it remains one of my Top 3 picks for October .
Call to Action
If you enjoy this type of analysis or would like me to review other tickers, tap on rocket 🚀 and leave a ticker in the comments .
I’ll make sure to cover your suggestions in upcoming posts soon!
(Full breakdown and context discussed in my recent videos — you can find them via my profile.)
1H BTCUSD BearishBTCUSD on the 60-minute chart remains in a firm downtrend, with clear lower lows and lower highs and price trading well below the 20, 60 and 120 MAs. A recent bearish Market Structure Shift and rising ATR confirm strong downside momentum. The former support zone at 88,399–89,251 has flipped into resistance, while a higher resistance cap sits near 93,000. On the downside, short-term support is trying to form around 82,400, but it’s still unproven.
The primary path favors selling failed bounces. If price rejects higher and we see a 1H close back below 86,000, it would confirm sellers back in control, keeping a short bias toward 81,000, with invalidation above 88,500, just beyond the resistance band. A clean break beneath 82,400 would further validate the trend and increases the probability of extending the move toward 81,000 and, in a stronger flush, the 75,000 area.
Aggressive bears can also watch for a 1H close below 82,300 as a continuation trigger toward 75,000, with risk capped above 85,500. Any sustained reclaim and hold above 93,000 would invalidate this bearish view and shift the bias back to neutral, if not cautiously constructive. This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations.
Thought of the Day 💡: Let the trend do the heavy lifting—your job is to define risk and respect invalidation.
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