CRUDE OIL (WTI): Important Breakout
Crude Oil broke and closed above a major daily horizontal resistance.
With a high probability, a broken structure turns into a potentially strong
support now.
I will expect a rise from that and a bullish continuation to 65.56 resistance.
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Technical Analysis
Gold Pullback Toward 3,650 as DXY Weakness Supports UpsideHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD (Gold) for a buying opportunity around the 3,650 zone. Gold is trading in an uptrend, with price currently correcting toward this key support/resistance level.
Structure: The broader bias remains bullish, with price pulling back toward a key area of interest.
Key level in focus: 3,650 — a zone where buyers may look to re-enter and resume the trend.
Fundamentals: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) maintains a bearish bias, currently in a downtrend and approaching 97.150 resistance. This weakness could continue to support Gold due to their negative correlation.
Trade safe,
Joe.
Bitcoin at Critical Resistance – Reversal or Breakout?Bitcoin (BTCUSDT – 3H) is testing the 117.5k – 118k resistance zone, which coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel.
So far, this level has acted as a strong rejection zone several times.
🔎 Key Insights:
• Structure: Price has formed a rising channel/wedge, often seen as a corrective bearish pattern.
• Resistance: 117.5k – 118k (major supply zone + channel top).
• Supports:
• 114k (short-term channel support)
• 107k – 108k (major support zone + channel bottom).
📌 Scenarios:
• Bearish (more likely): Rejection from 118k → downside targets at 114k and 107k – 108k.
• Bullish (alternative): Break & close above 118k → potential rally toward 122k – 124k.
⚠️ As long as BTC stays below 118k, downside risks remain higher.
DXY vs. EURUSD – Pre-FOMC DivergenceDollar Index (DXY)
Yesterday’s move was fully absorbed inside a tight range, leaving the internal range high at 99.804 ahead of the Fed meeting.
Liquidity is at 98.00 stacked above that zone; market makers could easily run the stops toward the 98 handle before any larger downside move.
EURUSD
Meanwhile, EURUSD broke out of its major range, giving us a new weekly structure with a key reference low at 1.13914.
Cross-Market View
This sets up a classic divergence:
Dollar – trapped in a premium sell range, heavy liquidity overhead.
Euro – fresh upside structure.
For cross-pairs this often means sharp pullbacks or erratic price action as we approach the FOMC decision.
Trade Notes
Stay nimble and keep stops tight.
FED shaken by politics | Gold eyes new ATH🟡 XAU/USD – 16/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
FED & US Politics :
S. Miran elected to the FED Board but still serves as Trump’s economic advisor → concerns FED may face White House influence.
Michelle Mills elected with a narrow 48–47 margin.
Appeals Court blocked Trump from firing L. Cook, affirming FED’s independence, but raising the risk of a legal battle at the Supreme Court.
US Economy :
6:30 AM (US time): Retail Sales release – key consumer spending indicator.
Probability of a -50bps FED cut this week is down to 1.2% , nearly ruled out. FED is almost certain to deliver -25bps next week.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Politics create noise, but the macro backdrop (FED easing + weak US data) remains the tailwind supporting Gold’s journey toward new ATH.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) :
3706 – 3714 (Fibonacci resistance)
3722 – 3724 (Strong Sell Zone, potential ATH test)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) :
FVG Dock: 3666 – 3668
OB Harbor: 3643 – 3645
Strong Low: 3611 (deep support)
Market Structure :
After a series of BoS , Gold broke out of sideways EqH/EqL and surged.
Preferred scenario: retrace to FVG 3666 , then bounce toward 3714 – 3722.
If 3722 breaks successfully → confirms new ATH and extends bullish momentum.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Buy 1 (FVG)
Entry: 3666 – 3668
SL: 3657
TP: 3690 – 3706 – 3714 – 372x
Buy 2 (OB)
Entry: 3643 – 3645
SL: 3632
TP: 3666 – 3700 – 3714 – 372x
⚡ Sell (short scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone
Entry: 3722 – 3724
SL: 3732
TP: 3714 – 3706 – 3690
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden ship has broken free from sideways waters and is heading toward new peaks. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3666 – 3643) is the safe dock for sailors to gather strength before sailing further. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3722 – 3724) is the big wave, suitable only for short Quick Boarding 🚤 . With dovish winds from the FED, the Golden sails are set toward new ATH.”
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 17, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Fed Day: All eyes on the FOMC decision + Powell press conference — this will lock in the September rate path.
📉 Positioning risk: Funds lightened up into Tuesday’s Retail Sales; volatility likely post-Fed.
💻 Tech leadership in focus: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , and AI plays driving AMEX:XLK flows ahead of macro.
🛢️ Crude swings: Energy price stability remains an inflation sentiment wildcard.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Aug)
⏰ 10:30 AM — EIA Petroleum Status Report
⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Policy Decision + SEP (dot plot)
⏰ 🚩 2:30 PM — Powell Press Conference
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Powell #Fed #housing #energy #bonds #Dollar #megacaps
What Could Derail the Nasdaq 100 Uptrend?The chart shows the US100 (Nasdaq 100, daily timeframe) extending its bullish momentum within a rising channel. Here’s the breakdown:
Trend & Structure:
The index has been in a steady uptrend since rebounding from its April lows, with price action respecting the boundaries of the ascending channel. It remains above both the 50-day SMA (23,416) and the 200-day SMA (21,481), confirming strong bullish structure.
Support Levels:
The lower channel boundary around 23,500 is immediate dynamic support.
The 50-day SMA provides further backing below that.
A key horizontal support is at 21,150, near the 200-day SMA, which marks the broader trendline base.
Resistance Levels:
The upper channel boundary near 24,500 is the immediate resistance.
A breakout above this region could extend gains toward 25,000, the next psychological target.
Momentum Indicators:
MACD remains positive, confirming upward momentum.
RSI (68.7) is approaching overbought levels but still has room before signaling exhaustion.
Outlook:
The Nasdaq 100 remains firmly bullish, with higher highs and higher lows supporting the trend. While the RSI hints at stretched conditions, momentum remains strong, and as long as price holds above 23,500, the path of least resistance points toward 24,500–25,000.
-MW
Silver's Bullish Trend ExtendsThe chart shows Silver (XAG/USD, daily timeframe) continuing its bullish advance within a well-established ascending channel. Here’s the breakdown:
Trend & Structure:
Silver has maintained strong upward momentum since mid-June, trading comfortably above both the 50-day SMA (38.91) and the 200-day SMA (34.22). The rising channel highlights persistent demand and higher lows supporting the uptrend.
Support Levels:
The lower channel boundary around 39.00 is immediate dynamic support.
The 50-day SMA also aligns as secondary support.
A stronger floor rests at 35.00, a previous breakout zone and psychological level.
Resistance Levels:
The upper channel line near 43.50–44.00 is the next resistance to watch.
Sustained momentum above this range could accelerate toward 45.00, the next psychological barrier.
Momentum Indicators:
MACD is in positive territory, supporting bullish momentum.
RSI (73.8) has entered overbought territory, suggesting short-term consolidation or a pullback is possible before further upside.
Outlook:
Silver remains in a strong bullish trend, with price action guided by the rising channel. While the overbought RSI hints at a potential pause or minor pullback, the broader structure favors further gains toward the 43.50–45.00 area as long as price holds above 39.00.
-MW
USD/MXN Breaking Down - Where Next?The chart shows USD/MXN (daily timeframe) under steady bearish pressure, extending its decline inside a well-defined descending channel. Here’s the breakdown:
Trend & Structure: Price has been moving lower since the peak near 21.00 earlier this year. It is now trading below both the 50-day SMA (18.67) and the 200-day SMA (19.61), reinforcing the bearish bias.
Support & Fibonacci Levels:
The immediate focus is the 18.17 zone, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April–July 2024 rally.
Below that, the next major level is 17.33 (78.6% Fib), followed by 16.26 (100% retracement).
Resistance Levels:
First resistance sits at 19.07, followed by the 19.49 area near the upper channel boundary.
A breakout above the 50-day SMA could open the way to test the 200-day SMA near 19.61.
Momentum Indicators:
MACD is below the signal line, showing continued bearish momentum.
RSI (28) is in oversold territory, suggesting that sellers are losing strength and a short-term bounce may develop.
Outlook:
USD/MXN remains in a strong downtrend, but with RSI flashing oversold and price nearing the 61.8% retracement support, the pair could see a corrective rebound in the short term. However, as long as the price stays below 19.07–19.50, the broader bias remains bearish, favoring further downside toward 18.17 and possibly 17.33.
-MW
KOTHARIPRO (BSE: 1D) — Volume Pressure Analyzer | OB 5/7 Tool used
Analysis made with ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer (VPA), which decomposes daily flows into buy/sell volume, prints half-window deltas (C→B vs B→A), ATR-normalized wing slopes, α/β geometry at vertex B, and OverBought/OverSold spike labels confirmed by a 7-oscillator vote
1) Snapshot from HUD
◉ OB 5/7 fired on today’s +20% candle (RSI/Stoch/CCI/MFI/StRSI cluster).
◉ C→B (earlier half): Δ −14.21 → seller-tilted.
◉ B→A (recent half): Δ +72.25K → buyers in control.
◉ Angles: C→B wing both <0° (down), B→A wing both >0° (up).
◉ α=171.6°, β=188.4° → no red flags (thresholds are α>180 or β<180).
◉ Ranked zones:
- B1 High 93.0 / Low 77.0 (resistance)
- S1 Low 83.9 (support)
2) Interpretation
◉ The OB 5/7 tag warns of short-term exhaustion after an impulsive surge.
◉ Yet the right wing (B→A) shows positive deltas and slopes, meaning structure still favors buyers.
◉ No α/β stress flags, so the geometry is not “over-stretched.”
◉ The zone map is clean: B1 = resistance (93.0) and S1 = first support (83.9).
3) Scenarios
A) Base case — Pullback / Digestion
◉ Likely reaction into the S1 zone (≈84–87) after OB tag.
◉ Watch Δ(B→A): if it fades to ≤0 and wings flatten, pullback deepens.
B) Bullish continuation
◉ Requires daily acceptance above 93 with a buy-spike (TF_buy / SMA ≥1.6 or Z≥1.8).
◉ Validation = B→A Δ stays >0 and right wing >0°.
C) Bearish rotation
◉ Triggers if B→A Δ flips negative and right wing turns gray/red.
◉ Breakdown below 83.9 on a sell-spike would confirm shift.
4) Conclusion
Bias: Constructive with pullback risk.
◉ Immediate OB tag suggests a pause; however, the buyer regime in the recent half (B→A) is still active.
◉ Key invalidation = loss of 83.9 (S1) with negative Δ.
◉ Key confirmation = acceptance above 93 with buy-spike absorption.
The points above are the technical and educational details from the ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer (VPA). Put simply, the takeaway is this:
The stock made a sharp +20% move today up to 93, and the indicator flagged an “OverBought” condition. That means buying pressure was unusually strong and the market may need to cool off with a pause or short pullback. Still, the recent volume balance shows buyers remain in control, so the broader structure is still constructive.
If price can hold above 93 with renewed strong buy-side volume, continuation to the upside is favored. But if it slips below 84 and selling pressure grows, that would mark the start of a deeper correction. In simple terms: the main trend is still positive, but after today’s surge it makes sense to expect some digestion before the next leg.
PEPE ANALYSIS🔮#PEPE Analysis 💰💰
#PEPE is trading in a symmetrical triangle in a daily time frame and if it breakouts with high volume then we can see a bullish momentum in #PEPE. Before that we will see little bit bearish movement towards its support zone and than a bullish movement.
🔖 Current Price: $0.00001091
⏳ Target Price: $0.00001413
⁉️ What to do?
- We can trade according to the chart and make some profits in #PEPE. Keep your eyes on the chart, observe trading volume and stay accustom to market moves.💲💲
#PEPE #Cryptocurrency #Pump #DYOR
BTC Price Action: Bulls vs BearsBitcoin has shown a gradual recovery after a prolonged corrective phase, with market structure leaning toward a constructive buildup. Fundamentally, sentiment is influenced by global macro conditions—investors are watching U.S. monetary policy signals, while stable demand from institutions and long-term holders continues to provide a supportive backdrop. On-chain activity remains steady, with balanced exchange inflows and outflows suggesting no extreme directional pressure in the near term.
From a technical perspective, the market has shifted momentum from bearish flows into a developing bullish sequence. The recent break of structure on the 4H timeframe highlights strengthening upside intent, though price is still moving within a broader accumulation phase. Current flows suggest the possibility of a short-term dip for liquidity before continuation to higher levels, aligning with the overall constructive weekly outlook.
BB ANALYSIS🔆#BB Analysis : Channel Following ⛔️⛔️
As we can see that #BB is following ascending channel on daily time frame. We can see a bullish formation here. And if it trade with good volume then we can see a proper bullish move in #BB 📈📈
Also there is an instant resistance zone and if it breaks with good volume when we would see a huge movement
🔖 Current Price: $0.1714
⏳ Target Price: $0.2323
⁉️ What to do?
- Keep your eyes on the chart, observe trading volume and stay accustom to market moves.🚀💸
#BB #Cryptocurrency #ChartPattern #DYOR
NZDJPY: Move UP is Expected! 🇳🇿🇯🇵
One of the setups that we discussed on the today's live stream
is on NZDJPY.
The price formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern
and violated its neckline after London session opening
on an hourly time frame.
With a high probability, the price will continue rising
and reach 87.95 level soon.
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Chipotle (CMG): Brand Power Meets Technical PatienceWhat they do: Fast-casual burritos/bowls with a heavy digital and throughput focus.
Why it’s strong: Industry-leading unit economics, brand love, and a deep U.S. runway—now going global.
Developments:
Asia entry JV (SPC Group): first restaurants in South Korea & Singapore in 2026.
Some metrics:
Forward P/E: ~27.5x.
ROIC (TTM): ~19–22%
Debt/Equity: ~1.35 (lease-heavy model).
Piloting kitchen automation like “Autocado” (guac prep) and “Chippy” (chips).
Risks: Food inflation; labor availability; brand hit risk from food-safety headlines.
Moat in a line: Brand + operational throughput at scale.
Technical view
A bit sloppy, but the criteria are in place. It’s “sloppy” because the levels don’t line up compactly — if they were a few percent tighter, it would form a stronger support zone.
Still, the high-probability area is there, between $32 - $43
- Trendline drawn from monthly closing prices
- Channel projection
- Previous highs turning into support
- 50% drop from the ATH
Cheers,
Vaido
XAUUSD – Wave (4) Pullback Setting Up Wave (5) ExtensionHey Traders,
Gold on the M30 chart is still holding a bullish structure, but the recent push into the upper channel line shows early signs of exhaustion. Here’s my full breakdown and trading plan:
🔍 Technical Overview
Price just completed Wave (3) around 3697.40, tagging the upper trend channel – a natural profit-taking zone.
The 3666–3670 range has been a key pivot/support zone multiple times; I expect a pullback into this area for Wave (4) before another rally.
3657 marks deeper support and the invalidation point for the bullish setup.
If Wave (4) holds, Wave (5) targets 3720–3725.
📈 Key Levels
Type Price Level Notes
Resistance 3695–3700 Wave (3) top + upper channel edge – watch rejection
Support (1) 3666–3670 Primary buy zone for Wave (4)
Support (2) 3657 Strong support & invalidation
Wave (5) TP 3720–3725 Expected Wave (5) extension target
⚙️ Trading Plan
✅ Primary Setup – Buy the Dip (Trend Continuation)
Entry Zone: 3666–3670 (or a brief sweep to ~3657).
Confirmation: Bullish engulfing candle, pin bar, or MACD crossover on M30.
Targets:
TP1: 3695–3700 (prior highs)
TP2: 3720–3725 (Wave (5) projection)
Stop Loss: Below ~3652.
Risk/Reward: ~1:2 to 1:3 depending on entry.
⚠️ Secondary Setup – Countertrend Short
Scenario: Strong rejection again at 3695–3700.
Targets: 3670 → 3657.
Stop Loss: Above ~3703–3707.
Note: This is countertrend and higher risk – take quick profits, small position sizing.
🛡 Risk & Invalidation
A close below 3656 with a break of the lower trend channel invalidates the bullish Wave (5) scenario.
Always risk ≤1–1.5% per trade, wait for confirmation, and don’t chase if price runs without you.
🧭 Final Thoughts
Gold remains in a bullish short-term channel. A healthy pullback into 3666–3670 could provide the perfect entry for the next Wave (5) leg up. Be patient for price action confirmation.
Countertrend shorts are possible on a sharp rejection at 3695–3700, but the main play is buying the dip.
Stay disciplined, trade the levels, and let the market come to you.
Ripple Finished A Correction Within Bullish TrendRipple Finished A Correction Within Bullish Trend, as we see it recovering in an impulsive fashion, which can extend the rally from technical perspective and by Elliott wave model.
Ripple with ticker XRPUSD is waking up from projected support after an ABC correction in wave IV, so bulls could be back, as we see it breaking above channel resistance line and important 3.08 level. So after current short-term pullback, we may see more gains and another push toward all-time highs for wave V, possibly to the 4-5 area.
Lucid: post-split impulse and a chance for a new rangeLucid stock has absorbed the post-split selloff and is now showing signs of recovery. On the daily chart, price has moved out of the descending channel and consolidated above 19.50. The bullish scenario points to a first target at 27.00, where strong resistance is located. A breakout there could pave the way toward 48.00–49.00, marking a potential mid-term trend reversal.
EMAs are starting to turn upward, while volume is picking up, signaling increased buying interest. The key support lies in the 18.00–19.00 zone. As long as this area holds, the bullish case remains valid.
From a fundamental perspective, Lucid benefits from strong EV sector demand and continued backing from major investors in Saudi Arabia. Production challenges and high costs remain risks, but overall EV market growth provides optimism.
PLUG: accumulation turning into breakout fuelPlug Power is slowly emerging from a long downtrend, building an accumulation structure after a trendline breakout. On the 4H chart, price is consolidating around 1.55–1.60 and gaining momentum. The first upside target is 1.90, where buyers will be tested. A strong breakout could open the way toward 2.90, where major resistance and higher volumes are located.
EMAs are starting to turn upward, confirming a potential trend change. The volume profile highlights strong interest around the current range, supporting the bullish case. The outlook remains positive as long as price holds above the 1.50 zone.
Fundamentally, Plug Power remains in focus with ongoing hydrogen energy projects. While the renewable sector faces macro pressures, improved demand and positive company news could act as catalysts for further growth.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 16, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 16, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Pre-Fed jitters: Traders square positions one day before Wednesday’s 🚩 FOMC decision + Powell presser.
💻 Mega-cap flows: Post-Apple launch chatter and AI sector sentiment keep AMEX:XLK leadership in play.
🛢️ Energy watch: Crude swings remain a headline driver for inflation hedges and $XLE.
💵 Dollar steady: FX tone reflects markets bracing for Fed clarity mid-week.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Aug)
⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Aug)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (Jul)
⏰ 10:00 AM — NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #RetailSales #Fed #Powell #economy #Dollar #bonds #oil #AAPL #megacaps
Goldman Sachs - Too Cheap to Ignore?NYSE:GS and the general financial services sector as a whole has faced extreme trauma over this past month. However, one that particularly stands out is the "bad guy" of the industry who has taken the equivalent to a roundhouse kick to the face, and the chart shows it. But does this mean that someone looking for a dip shouldn't pick up strong equity on a discount? I say no, lets be greedy while other are fearful just like that one guy said. Warren something... I don't really remember his name.
Let's examine the numbers before we do the finance equivalent of astrology. This means that value investing and it's rather elementary techniques are going to give us some sort of indicator of a buy or a sell. Here's what you need to know.
1. Sachs has an attractive dividend yield of 2.14% ($11.50/share) and a gleaming dividend payout ratio (DPR) of 21.50%.
2. It is far from its high annual EPS sitting at 41.21 sliding from its high last December at 60.35.
3. It's price to earnings ratio (PE) is lounging nicely at 14.00 meaning we are at a generally cheap share price. This metric is what we're looking for.
4. Unfortunately, it has a rather higher price to book ratio (PB) at 1.64 which somewhat contradicts the PE ratio examined in #3.
5. Other metrics to keep in mind is an EV/EBITDA at 53.90 and a PEG at 16.23 which are both considered undesirable to investors.
So as far as statistics are concerned, Goldman is sending some mixed signals making a decision difficult at the moment. This means we're going to have to examine the general sector sentiment and general outlook.
Firstly, I'd like to point out Goldman's enterprise value. Sachs' EV is currently reported at 855.93 billion, 673 billion (78.63%) being debt (long term or short). This means NYSE:GS is a debt heavy company and we all know how debt works (the entity taking on the debt owes principal + interest). Well, this means that NYSE:GS is heavily going to be influenced by interest rates even considering their strong revenue. So, if we plan on interest rates being lowered long term (which I'm sure we all do), Goldman will be able to borrow from the Fed at a cheaper interest price while simultaneously owing account holders and bond holders less in interest (or APY yield for that matter). However, in the event that inflation runs wild and the Fed raises rates, NYSE:GS will face some turmoil along with the other commercial investment banks.
Great, so now for the fun part. Let's see what the charts have to say about this and what it could be implying.
Here is the 4H chart looking back into last October.
As you can see, Goldman posted a sweet rally followed by our current pullback. However, we are being flashed with various bullish technical patterns and a strong explanation for the drop (even considering the tariffs threats and indices pullback). In summary, we are examining a stock in gradual freefall towards what appears to be several safety nets.
On a psychological level, I find that most investors in the business of "smart money" wont let Goldman drop too low before they put their boot down. I also imagine this will happen pretty soon, but we need to hold the $540 price level.
As far as the MACD is concerned, we are experiencing weakness from the buyers are the bears are clearly on offense.
And lastly, the GS implied volatility shows that options traders aren't pricing in anything particularly unusual, and the most usual movement for the market is to climb higher so that's good news.
So, what's the conclusion. In my humble opinion, I believe that Goldman Sachs' stock is trading too low to not buy. Financially, the company is not showing anything particularly concerning and may just need to show some strength before the mass cash chases this play. As of right now, I am long on NYSE:GS considering the financial statistics, general industry sentiment, and technical analysis which was used as an assistance tool. This trade could be last anywhere from 1 day to 1 year, but I am prepared to hold for much longer.
SWING IDEA - FIRSTCRY (BRAINBEES SOLUTIONS LTD)FirstCry (Brainbees Solutions) , a leading omni-channel retailer for baby and kids’ products, is showing signs of a potential breakout, presenting a strong swing trading opportunity.
Reasons are listed below :
400 resistance zone tested multiple times — now looking ready for a breakout
Attempting to break out of a 7+ month consolidation phase
Volume spikes suggest accumulation by smart money
Golden Fibonacci retracement support in play
Price action forming higher highs, confirming bullish structure
Target - 500 // 540
Stoploss - daily close below 348
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