Estimated Stock Market Peak 2026"It's time to call 'bullshit' on the market."
The newswire has been busy lately, don't get distracted by; something feels off.
More than four years have passed since my last major stock market top analysis.
Why Bitcoin? Because it is one of the most cyclical assets, based on liquidity flows at the extreme end of the risk curve, leading the global market peak.
This was the first market cycle with high interest rates and without economic stimulus. Therefore, neither an expansion of the business cycle nor a comparable investment interest from retail, which ultimately led to a peak of apathy rather than euphoria. A typical sign of a later cycle environment, in times of economic uncertainty and risk aversion, with an absence of market breadth, in which only major caps temporarily lead and all other stocks and indicators lag behind. Without an expansion of the broader markets, the entire system risks collapse as soon as the blue chips lose momentum. Zombie companies survived on 0% interest rates, but now the bill is coming due. They have to refinance billions this year at significantly higher rates and will most likely not survive. Warren Buffett, on the other hand, is sitting on a historically high cash reserve of over $380b and doesn't want to "buy the dip", but rather first ride out the delayed effects of rapid interest rate hikes and market downturns on companies whose AI expenditures aren't based on actionable revenues.
Contrary to popular belief, rate cuts into a recession are not bullish.
The Fed could begin larger cuts once they realize the economy is falling off a cliff.
Markets will then respond by falling through the news narrative of an escalating potential war or energy crisis blackout bankrun leading to surging inflation and fears of a global recession.
Only when we hit rock bottom will the Fed have a reason to intervene and aggressively stabilize the market through QE and stimulus checks.
Meanwhile, the commodity supercycle is underway, countering the cryptocurrency market, which is based on tech and big risk-on sentiment speculation. Rising precious metals are a worrying warning signal for the economy, indicating the market being concerned about the stability of the system, predicting what lies ahead of us. A rotation is unlikely to occur immediately; instead, a deep retracement will likely have to take place first. Some of the weakness by stocks may become more pronounced whenever Gold gets a correction.
You will see the US stock markets similarly plunge, but then soar like an eagle as they become the last bastion of capitalism, as frightened money from all over the place, including sovereign bond markets, pours into equities one last time as exit liquidity like never before. It will be interesting to see how ByteDance, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Stripe, Canva, Revolut, Klarna and Kraken time their IPOs to coincide with the market peak.
The last crypto market capitulation in June 2022 was triggered by the disappearance of Luna(+UST), 3AC, BlockFi, Celsius and the short-term depegging of USDT, which are maximum fear events. This was followed by a five-month time-based capitulation and the absolute market bottom depression caused by the FTX insolvency.
Assumption of next market capitulation bottom:
Corporate Subprime Bitcoin Crisis of 2026
"The system works – but does it justify this valuation?"
Bitcoin was an asset, but it was treated like equity. The highest-probability risk is institutional treasury capitulation under debt and cash flow pressure.
2024–2025: Bitcoin was used as a balance sheet asset (leverage, convertible bonds, project financing). Many models only work when prices rise, and not in MSTR Ponzi schemes.
In 2026, refinancing becomes more expensive, cash flows are insufficient, covenants are triggered, and creditors demand de-risking. The accompanying stock market correction will certainly contribute to this.
= Everyone who needed to own Bitcoin has to sell. High volume and volatility, thin order book illiquidity, negative altcoin funding rates, large arbitrage, and unfavorable front page newspaper and magazines coverage of fear, uncertainty and doubt sentiment.
However, the maximum psychological effect only occurs when something unexpected happens and what is perceived as "safe" breaks down, resulting in existential consequences for private investors.
1. At least another ~1% USDTUSD decline due to altcoin capitulation selling, if not eventually, at a cycle bottom, the controlled Tether implosion restructuring to USDC (Circle)
2. A reputable, top-10, retail-loving coin (-90% Solana, Tron) loses significance/trust
3. Quantum anxiety, privacy wallet/custody layer shock due to wallet bug, smart contract freeze, multi-chain bridge problem, recovery failure
= At the end of the day, as always: Bitcoin hasn't failed – but everything around it.
Assuming the market continues to move at its current velocity relative to historical corrective structures, it seems logical that the loud and frightening crash as well as the associated surprise narrative, will occur during the Blood Moon sometime in February-March.
We will see which global fear narrative emerges while observing the bottoming process through technical indicators and on-chain data. Depending on the strength of the Q1 correction, possibly 5+ months later a bottom in August-October. You should start buying BTC as soon as the price drops below $48.5k, with a target range of around $39k. If the price retraces further, things might be different this time. I will provide you with a new update then. No financial advice.
This isn't about calling a precise top. It's about asymmetry and risk management. Don't be fooled into thinking the markets are doing well beneath the surface.
"Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet."
Thank you for reading.
Noteworthy to watch:
- 2029 Shmita year
- 2026 median housing market peak, 18-year real estate cycle recession
- 2026 George Tritch (Benner) cycle – time to sell
- 2026 Chinese Year of the Horse
- 2026 bearish stock market U.S. midterm election years
- 2026 longest ISM PMI<50 & Copper/Gold ratio contraction
- 2026 largest inverted yield curve & Gold/US02Y ratio above 200WMA
- U.S. initial jobless claims above 260k =recession
- JNK divergences overlaying SPX
- Energy rotation Oil and Gas, inflation rising
- DXY rising
- DOWJONES reaction at 34.5k-36k
- TOTAL3ES excluding Btc, Eth and Stablecoins, reaction at $270b
- ETH expanding flat bottom zone at $900
