RIVIAN Accumulation before mega rally.Last month (April 18, see chart below), we called for a short-term buy on Rivian Automotive (RIVN) but expected one more pull-back before the absolute bottom:
Since however the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and closed a 1D candle above it too, we have to revise it and we consider April's low to be the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Down pattern.
As a result, we expect a short-term Accumulation Phase, similar to May - June 2023, before an aggressive rally towards the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern. Our target is $17.00 (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
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Technologystocks
AMD correction is over. Buy for the long-term.Back on March 13 (see chart below) we gave a bold (for the majority of the market) sell signal on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), as we saw the stock topping at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of its 2-year Channel Up:
Our signal was delivered and the price corrected significantly by -37% and has almost reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was the level that held and made the last bottom and Higher Low for the Channel Up on the week of October 23 2023.
As the 1W RSI also reached the symmetrical Support level of the October 2023 bottom (45.50), we believe that the market has already started the bottom process and any week now will start the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
Technically the previous 2 rose by +144% but we will settle our own long-term Target a little lower at $300.00, so that it makes a standard Higher High on the Channel Up.
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SMCI accumulation phase. Patience will be rewarded.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) gave us an excellent sell opportunity two months ago (March 08, see chart below) that allowed us to short on time and target perfectly the 1D MA100 (red trend-line on the chart below, green trend-line on the one above):
The 1D MA100 has so far held twice successfully but even if it breaks, don't be alarmed as this will most likely be part of the standard multi-month Accumulation Phase when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, which when completed sends SMCI as high as +417.86% from the bottom (that was the % rise during the last two mega rallies).
As a result, the time to buy this stock is now. Hold and you will be rewarded. It can potentially reach as high as $3500, even though $1500 certainly is good enough and more plausible on the medium-term.
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C3.AI bottomed and is going for the 1D MA50 test.C3.ai (AI) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the August 01 2023 High and just 3 weeks ago made the 2nd Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern. If it breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will have a confirmed bullish continuation for the new Bullish Leg, similar to the November 02 2023 break-out.
Until then, we expect one last short-term dip for a better buy entry, with which we will target 29.00 (just below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level). On the medium-term, we expect a new Lower High to be made, at least on the 0.618 Fib.
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QQQ pull back done or another leg down?QQQ had a bad week last week after trying since February to break long term resistance of the Blue trading channel. There was a lot of momentum but ultimately after being squeezed between resistance of the blue channel and support from black channel midline, it was time to take profit for the big guys. Clearly, inflation readings and uncertainty about interest rate cuts were the main factors.
A hard sell off last week to establish a clear down channel with the biggest selling on Friday. Using the channel from August to November last year and with some minor tweaks, you can see that it ended Friday right on the support line.
Another thing I was looking at were several of the most recent pullbacks over the last few years. You can see them overlayed on the peak of March 21st. Going by them, QQQ has already come close to extent of the smaller pullbacks.
In my limited experience, these two indicators are usually a good sign for a rebound this week. The RSI is also in the oversold range and in line with other bottoms. The rebound could just be a short-term rally in the down channel like back in Aug and Sept last year with another leg down in the coming month or so. Or we could see a new attempt to break out of the blue channel.
Either way, I was brave enough to open a few positions Friday before the close. Hopefully I don't regret that.
AAPL:A Bearish Reversal Looms with Potential Downside of -9.22%?Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:AAPL !
On the Daily timeframe, we've spotted a significant double-top pattern , suggesting a potential bearish reversal if the neckline is breached. Also, the price has fallen below the EMA200 line, indicating ongoing selling pressure. Despite two attempts, it hasn't managed to break above the EMA200 line, indicating strong resistance. This resistance could lead to a potential downturn in Apple's stock. Recently, there was a breakout below the neckline, confirming the bearish trend. Furthermore, MACD is showing bearish divergence in the negative zone, supporting the idea of a downward movement towards our target at 149.55."
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on AAPL."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below
Forecasted to Reach New All-Time High with +14% Upside PotentialHi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:GOOG
Google has rebounded three times on the EMA200 Line with upward impulsive movement, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend. Additionally, it has formed a bullish chart pattern known as a falling wedge pattern. In March 2024, it broke out of the falling wedge pattern with a bullish full-body candlestick and higher-than-average 7-day trading volume . This higher-than-average trading volume is significant as it suggests increased market participation and conviction behind the price movement, reinforcing the validity of the breakout. Moreover, the MACD has made a bullish crossover, signifying a shift towards upward momentum. A bullish crossover in the MACD is a crucial signal in technical analysis, indicating a potential reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. This occurrence is significant as it suggests strengthening buying pressure, often foreshadowing further upward movement in the price. Analyzing these technical factors, we forecast a potential upward movement to our designated target.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on GOOG."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
Nasdaq - Correction already over?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at the Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a pretty obvious and also profitable rising channel formation. We saw the last retest of support back in 2023 which was followed by a significant rally of +70% towards the upside. As we are speaking the Nasdaq is actually retesting resistance so there is a quite high chance that we will see at least a little more bearish continuation.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Island Gaps and Hidden Accumulation: SONONASDAQ:SONO has a lot of Island gaps and another just in the past few months.
The compression of price into a sideways trend is a good pattern.
Also, the black candle that drops below the consolidation and the white candle the next day is a pattern to pay attention to. This means there is some hidden accumulation from Dark Pools at this new higher level of price. Institutional holdings is strong at 85%.
MVIS Microvision breaks higher from earnings LONGMVIS is a volatile penny stock with daily volumes in the 20JK range and a low float. Yesterday
was a decent earnings beat. MVIX was already trending up into the earnings and now may
sustain that trend up. Volatility and volume indicator support my supposition that the trend
is real. The target of the consolidation period of February 8-13's price level of 2.58 is
13 % upside. I espect this to be a long swing trade lasting a few days. Upon reaching the
target I will take half the position to realize that part of the profit and run the rest.
IS UBER ready for continuation LONGUBER fell a little after good earnings. Apparently traders where disappointed. It then rallied
for three days to close out the week. The following week it retraced the rally for 2-3 days
and then consolidated for a week with a re-awakening of bullish momentum in the past prior
trading day. From here, I believe that UBER is ready for potential push to an ATH and gain
buying pressure along that way perhaps accelerated by short sellers liquidating their positions.
I will take a long trade here of both shares and call options.
NVDA - The Trend Is Your FriendPretty incredible chart. This price action will be talked about for years. Where will it end? How will it end? These are not questions I know how to answer. The great thing is I don't have to know the answers to these questions to profit MAJORLY from the price action. Everything I need to know is reflected in the price action.
The trend is your friend (until the end). #NVDA
PLTR pre-earnings play LONGPLTR has earnings on February 5 while on the 120 minute chart, the price action is that of
a rising wedge with price compressing between a rising support trendline and a falling
resistance trendline the extension of the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern of
November. PLTR fell today and is near and above support. In a long trade, I see the target
as 18 ( at the resistance trendline) with a narrow stop loss just under the support trendline.
This makes for a possible 6% profit with a very good reward-to-risk ratio. A call option
for the 2/16 expiration striking $17 is also under immediate consideration.
GOOGL: Gap-Filling Strategy with Exciting 6% Upside Potential !Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:GOOGL
On January 31, 2024, Alphabet's stock exhibited a gap down in after-hours trading subsequent to the disclosure of lower-than-anticipated ad revenue. Following this, the stock stabilized its descent, finding support at both the bullish trendline and the EMA90 line, indicating a possible rebound in this zone.
Furthermore, a bullish hammer pattern emerged, accompanied by elevated trading volume. These technical indicators commonly suggest a potential upward movement, either to close the gap or reach the predefined target area.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on GOOGL."
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Navigating the Chip Maze: Should You Invest in Synopsys?Navigating the Chip Maze: Should You Invest in Synopsys?
Synopsys, a titan in the Electronic Design Automation (EDA) landscape, offers intriguing prospects for investors curious about the semiconductor industry. But before diving in, let's unpack the company, analyze its potential, and explore options – with a strong disclaimer: trading is inherently risky and not suitable for everyone.
Synopsys: Powering the Chip Revolution
Founded in 1986, Synopsys has carved a niche by providing essential tools and services for chip design and verification. Imagine them as the architects and inspectors of the tiny brains powering our devices. Their clients? Tech giants like Apple, Intel, and Samsung, relying on Synopsys for efficient, secure chip development.
Products and Services:
EDA Tools: The bread and butter – software enabling chip design, simulation, and verification.
Silicon IP: Pre-designed building blocks, saving chipmakers time and money.
Software Security and Quality: Tools to identify and fix vulnerabilities in software, crucial in an increasingly interconnected world.
Financials and Performance:
Revenue: $5.3 billion (FY 2023)
Net Income: $1.2 billion (FY 2023)
Ratings: Leader in Gartner's Magic Quadrant for EDA, "100 Best Companies to Work For" by Fortune
So, Buy, Sell, or Hold?
This is where things get tricky. Analysing publicly available information can't guarantee future performance. Several factors could influence Synopsys' stock price:
Overall Semiconductor Market: A booming market benefits Synopsys, but downturns can impact sales.
Technological Advancements: Staying ahead of the curve in EDA is crucial, and continuous innovation is key.
Competition: Other EDA players like Cadence Design Systems pose constant competition.
Options Trading: A Calculated Gamble?
Remember, options involve significant risks. Buying call options bets on a stock price increase, while put options profit from a decrease. With expirations ranging from 1-12 months, you choose your timeframe and risk tolerance. However, options decay in value over time, and misjudgment can lead to substantial losses.
The Verdict: Do Your Research, Proceed with Caution
Synopsys is a prominent player in a growing industry, but the decision to invest ultimately rests on your individual financial goals and risk appetite. Conduct thorough research, understand the risks involved, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Consider seeking professional financial advice before making any investment decisions.
Risk Warning
Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are comfortable with the potential for losses.
Risk Warning: Trading is Not for Everyone
It's essential to emphasize that trading stocks and options carries inherent risks. Market volatility, unpredictable events, and human error can lead to significant losses. Therefore, it's crucial to undertake thorough research, understand the underlying risks, and only invest funds that can be comfortably afforded to lose.
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Rating: STRONG BUY
Risk Disclaimer!
The article information and the data is for general information use only, not advice!
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Risk Warning Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are comfortable with the potential for losses. Risk Disclaimer! General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss!
QQQ to 20,000Tech is just super strong and though in the overvalued range, I think it is likely going to run up to at least 20,000 before summer based on the 1.6 fib extension. Now, I still think we need a confirmation of continued bullishness next week. If we continue above the trend line, then I see no reason that it does not stop until 20k.
Nasdaq - Time To SellHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 14 years the nasdaq has been trading in a super obvious bullish parallel rising channel. In the beginning of 2023 we had another retest of the lower support which was followed by a +65% rally. If the Nasdaq rejects the current resistance towards the donwside and retests the support mentioned in the analysis, I will then be looking for long setups again.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
QQQ - Here is what I am watchingQQQ's price has approached the resistance trendline at the top of the trading channel since 2010. It's crucial to monitor this line for a potential breakout. If we observe an upward breakout followed by clear confirmation, it could resemble another "bubble" similar to what we saw in 2021. Otherwise, the price might continue its upward trend while trading sideways until a catalyst emerges.
Valuations for stocks currently appear to be overvalued, resembling late 2020 levels. Depending on the indicator you prefer, we are currently seeing PE ratios and the Buffet indicator ranging from 1.5x to 1.7x standard deviations above the historical average.
Prices have already been inflated due to the AI-driven surge last year, and robust economic growth may further drive prices upward as momentum (MOMO) and fear of missing out (FOMO) take hold. Since November, any significant sell-off has been met with strong buying, as we observed this week.
Predicting price movement becomes challenging when we reach the edges of historical price trends. Good luck out there.
Risk for Correction as Earnings Season EndsChecking the Monthly DPO chart of NASDAQ:NDX , it is important to be prepared for the risk of a correction soon after earnings season ends OR as the final week or so of reports come in. Often, the weakest reports are toward the end as there are aging technologies among these.
Corrections are necessary for a long-term uptrend to sustain.
Notice that there is more room to move up to the previous cycle peak of 2021. This new cycle peak can go higher as corporations continue to increase their revenues and earnings this year.
Also note that the extreme angle of ascent of the trend in 1998-2000 is far more severe than what has formed so far in this new bull market.
TESLA made a Channel Down bottom. Buy but watch these breakouts.Tesla (TSLA) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the July 19 2023 High (which was an emphatic Lower Highs rejection on the ATH Lower Highs trend-line of the November 04 2021 All Time High) and on our last analysis (January 12, see chart below) we called for a tight SL buy but mentioned the importance of taking the loss quickly if the April 27 2023 trend-line broke and reverse to a sell on a $180.00 Target:
The price did make that bearish break-out and hit $180.00, a level that has been holding since last Thursday. Even though the fundamentals surrounding the company are very volatile, this is a strong medium-term buy opportunity from a technical perspective. Not only is it at the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 7-month Channel Down, but also the RSI is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a structure that has been formed on every single bottom since the December 27 2022 market bottom.
In fact the 1D RSI reached last Thursday those exact vastly oversold levels (17.50) it has last seen on that global December 2022 (price bottomed on January 06 2023) market bottom. As a result, there are much more reasons to consider the current level a strong medium-term opportunity than not. The technical target is $245.00, which represents a Lower High level slightly lower than a projected +41% rise (last Lower High was +36%, the one before +31%, so we estimate a +5% progression). We will book the profit earlier though if the 1D RSI hits its Resistance Zone before the price reaches $245.00.
If the uptrend is extended and the price breaks above the ATH Lower Highs trend-line (already has 5 rejections since November 2021), we will take it as a bullish break-out signal and target $315.00, which is the September 21 2022 Triple Top. On the other hand, if the stock closes a 1D candle below the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the 7-month Channel Down, we will sell and target $152.50, which is the Support 2 level.
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MICROSOFT How to trade as the Earnings approach?Microsoft (MSFT) is set to report the Earnings on Tuesday and last time we gave gave a pull-back buy signal (December 01 2023, see chart below) we caught the exact bottom:
Our original long-term Target was $460.00 but we have to downgrade it to $440.00. On the short-term it may be wise to take most or at least some of the profit if the 1D MA20 (red trend-line) as this has been a medium-term sell signal on July 26 2023. It's not just potentially lower than expected Earnings that may turn the trend bearish on the medium-term but also the Fed, which announce the Rate Decision on Wednesday.
As a result, if the price breaks below the 1D MA20, we will short and target the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at $370.00 where we will add another long-term buy position. Notice that the 1D CCI indicator and the correlation with the 2023 price action, shows that both scenarios are equally likely at the moment.
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MSFT: Hidden Bullish Divergence, Upside Potential+7%? Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft's current price action analysis (MSFT) reveals several significant indicators suggesting a favorable bullish trend. Firstly, the stock consistently trades above the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 34 line, signaling a robust bullish trend. Additionally, a recent development in a symmetrical triangle formation has been observed, followed by a decisive breakout from this pattern.
Moreover, the momentum indicator has exhibited a hidden bullish divergence, reinforcing the positive outlook. This confluence of technical signals indicates a strong likelihood of Microsoft continuing its upward trajectory. In our analysis, we anticipate a potential pullback to the previous resistance zone before resuming its bullish trend, with the initial target in sight. Further, we identify a second target for potential gains, underlining the prospect of sustained positive momentum in MSFT's market performance.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Microsoft."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
Can UBER breakthrough its all time high?UBER on the weekly chart has been touching the all time high
( set nearly two years ago ) since mid-December. The relative buying volume has had some
spikes. the MACD suggests a line cross above the histogram and so some bearish tendencies.
If UBER can get over its all-time high and retest it from above another leg higher seems to be a
very likely scenario as buyers jump into the action chasing the price. This will be especially true
if the general market gets some good trending up. This goes on the watch list with an alert for
a new all-time high.






















