TOTAL DAILY The flash crash of Monday took TOTAL all the way down under the previous cycles high and tapped the 1D 200 EMA before reacting well to move price between the DAILY RESISTANCE & SUPPORT.
For me I still think crypto has space to grow, seasonality tells us the first quarter of a bullrun year is great in terms of returns with a tail off in Q2-3, coupled with the US administration being pro crypto and the looming strategic reserve getting closer, ETFs relentlessly buying Bitcoin, same with MicroStrategy.
The two entry options for me are when the wick gets filled and a reclaims the '21 ATH once again, that would sweep the demand zone and take out a lot of stop losses before targeting the DAILY RESISTANCE and the HIGHS.
Another entry would have to be a reclaim of the DAILY RESISTANCE, I would be worried that the wick still needs filling but maybe it would be during the bear market. For that reason a close SL would be useful.
Total
The Largest Crypto Liquidation Ever!Crypto's Largest Liquidation Event: Has the Market Found Its Bottom?
The recent liquidation event in the cryptocurrency market has made history as the largest ever recorded. Such an occurrence strongly suggests that the market may have reached its bottom. However, if past cycles are any indication—such as the recoveries observed in 2020 and 2022—it typically takes more than two months for a full rebound to materialize.
Historical Precedents and Market Recovery
Looking at historical events, the crypto market has shown resilience time and again, but recoveries have never been immediate. Take, for example, the COVID-19 crash of March 2020, the Luna collapse in 2022, and the FTX fallout later that same year. Each of these events led to significant downturns, followed by prolonged recovery periods before prices stabilized and resumed an uptrend.
Given this, it's crucial to manage expectations. While some investors may hope for a rapid V-shaped recovery, history suggests that most altcoins are unlikely to revisit their December highs within the next couple of months, if not longer. Market sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions all play a role in shaping the recovery trajectory.
The Importance of Patience and Realistic Expectations
Crypto investors often seek quick rebounds, but expecting an immediate bounce back within days is unrealistic. If those expectations aren’t met, it could lead to unnecessary frustration and poor trading decisions. Even in the rare cases of a swift V-shaped recovery, such as the one seen in 2020, the market still took several weeks to regain lost ground, with multiple dips along the way.
For those navigating the current market conditions, patience remains key. Strategic, long-term thinking will likely yield better results than reactive, short-term trading. While it would be a welcome surprise if the market defied historical patterns and rebounded sooner than expected, it’s wise to prepare for a more extended consolidation phase before a sustainable uptrend emerges.
Final Thoughts
Although the largest liquidation event in crypto history may indicate that the market has bottomed out, historical data suggests that recovery will not be immediate. Investors should brace for a potential multi-month recovery period before prices begin a sustained upward movement. Managing expectations, maintaining patience, and taking a long-term approach are essential strategies for navigating the current market landscape.
Ethereum — 2025. The Lord Giveth and Taketh Away (Caution! 18+)Donald Trump's recent policies and statements have generated significant negative sentiment towards Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market. As he resumes the presidency, his administration's approach to cryptocurrencies is expected to be more regulatory and cautious, which could impact Ethereum investors.
Historical Context of Trump's Views on Cryptocurrency
Trump has a mixed history with cryptocurrencies, as we mentioned in earlier published ideas. Initially, he labeled them a "scam", "based on thin air" as well as "threat to the U.S. dollar" and expressed skepticism about their value, stating that they are not real money and are highly volatile. However, in recent months, he has shifted his stance somewhat, reportedly owning between $1 million and $5 million in Ethereum as of August 2024. Despite this personal investment, his public comments continue to reflect a critical view of the crypto market.
Impact of Recent Tariffs on Ethereum
The most immediate cause of concern for Ethereum investors has been Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This decision triggered a significant sell-off in the cryptocurrency market, with Ethereum experiencing a drastic price drop of over 26% in just one day. The overall cryptocurrency market lost nearly half a trillion dollars in value following these announcements, highlighting the interconnectedness of global trade policies and digital asset valuations.
The tariffs have led to increased uncertainty among investors, prompting many to liquidate their positions in riskier assets like Ethereum. This reaction is indicative of a broader trend where geopolitical tensions and economic policies directly influence cryptocurrency prices. Analysts noted that such trade policies could lead to inflationary pressures and a stronger dollar, making cryptocurrencies less attractive to international buyers.
Future Outlook for Ethereum Under Trump's Administration
Looking ahead, Trump's administration is likely to focus on stricter regulations for cryptocurrencies. This could manifest in enhanced oversight that may slow down the adoption of Ethereum by businesses and individuals. However, there is also potential for increased legitimacy if clear regulations are established.
Moreover, Trump's interest in Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) might further complicate the landscape for Ethereum. As the U.S. explores its digital dollar initiative, Ethereum's decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem could face stiff competition from state-backed digital currencies.
Technical challenge
The main technical graph for Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD indicates on Bearish trend in development, since mid-December 2024, with acceleration occurred a day before Mr. Trump entered the White House.
Key support considered as 100-week SMA (near $2550 in this time) and $2200 flat multi bottom, that helps so far; otherwise (in case of breakthrough) we believe it could lead the Ethereum price much lower, as it described on the chart.
Conclusion
In summary, while Trump’s personal investment in Ethereum marks a notable shift from his previous criticisms, his administration's policies—especially regarding tariffs—have created a challenging environment for Ethereum investors. The combination of regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic factors will likely continue to influence Ethereum's market performance in the near future.
TOTAL Crypto Cap. Who called 800-pound Gorilla to enter a chatThe influence of Donald Trump on cryptocurrency markets has been a topic of significant discussion, particularly in light of his recent inauguration and the launch of various crypto-related initiatives. His evolving stance on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has led to both volatility and optimism within the market. This overview explores the implications of Trump's actions and statements on the cryptocurrency landscape, focusing on the factors contributing to market fluctuations and the broader economic context.
Trump's Evolving Stance on Cryptocurrency
Historically, Donald Trump has had a mixed relationship with cryptocurrencies. Initially dismissive, he referred to Bitcoin as "based on thin air" and a threat to the U.S. dollar. However, as his US-elections campaign progressed, his views shifted towards a more favorable outlook. In recent pre-elections statements (usual populist election rhetoric), Trump has expressed intentions to position the U.S. as "the crypto capital of the planet", for example.
This shift aligns with a broader trend where economic uncertainty has made alternative assets like Bitcoin more attractive. During Trump's first term, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed from around $1,000 to over $40,000, reflecting increased interest in cryptocurrencies as a hedge against traditional financial instability. Following his reelection in 2024, Bitcoin surged past $100 000, attributed in part to renewed investor confidence driven by Trump's pro-crypto rhetoric and cabinet appointments.
The Launch of Memecoins and Market Volatility
The recent launch of memecoins associated with Trump, such as $TRUMP and $MELANIA, exemplifies the volatility that can arise from his influence in the crypto space. These coins saw dramatic price fluctuations shortly after their introduction; for instance, $TRUMP's market capitalization soared to $14 billion before experiencing a significant crash. This volatility raises concerns about market manipulation and the sustainability of such speculative assets.
Factors contributing to this volatility include:
Market Saturation. The cryptocurrency market is highly competitive, with thousands of coins vying for attention. New entrants can dilute demand for existing coins, leading to price declines.
Lack of Utility. Many memecoins lack inherent utility or clear use cases, making them susceptible to speculative trading rather than long-term investment.
Regulatory Uncertainty. The evolving regulatory landscape can create unpredictability in the market. Trump's administration has indicated support for crypto-friendly policies; however, regulatory frameworks remain unclear.
The United States of TRUMPAMERICA
Trump's presidency coincides with heightened economic uncertainty due to various pro-inflationary factors, including US-centric tariff policies, trade wars and geopolitical tensions.
Despite initial optimism following Trump's election victory, there are concerns about whether his administration can deliver on its promises regarding cryptocurrency regulation and support. While some investors have benefited from short-term price surges attributed to Trump's influence, questions remain about the long-term sustainability of these gains.
Regulatory Developments and Future Implications
The establishment of a crypto task force under Trump's administration aims to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. While this initiative is viewed positively by many in the crypto community, it remains uncertain how effectively it will address existing challenges within the market.
Technical Challenge
The main technical graph for CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Crypto Cap indicates on Bearish trend in development, since "Double Top" technical figure has occurred a day before Mr. Trump entered the room.
The minor RSI (14) chart indicates also that Bullish optimism is getting sluggish so far.
Conclusion
Donald Trump's influence on cryptocurrency markets is multifaceted and continues to evolve. The recent volatility associated with memecoins underscores the speculative nature of digital assets while highlighting the broader impact of political fart on investor sentiment.
This is HUGE!! TOTAL BREAKOUTOOOOOOOOi Mikey. Get your ass into gear. It's been rough but hear me out. Perfect retest on the daily. Breakout wedge and solid retest on the trendline. Respecting the 50% Fib pull back. Healthy rejection candles. Three-day tight consolidation candles with volatility breakout forming cup & handle and further reclaiming the upper 50% of price action. Currently we are seeing a healthy rejection at 3.56T. And I haven't even started on the indicators. MACD lining up to be a beaut. Cumulative volume delta going strong. RSI just about breach 80 & MA directing to the heavens. Bollinger Band Width (volatility) just about to cross the 50 mark. Volume returning. I could keep going. How much more confirmation do we need.
GAME PLAN: Wait for the cup & handle to play out. Either seeing an acceptance or rejection of pattern. I'm somewhat expecting a bounce on the 50% (3.34.T) and sweeping atleast half of the previous liquidation wick (3.31T). Keep an eye on volume, looking to push past 270B.
TOTAL Crypto Market CapThe TOTAL Crypto Market Cap is currently trading range-bound between its 2021 and 2024 all-time highs. For bullish momentum to return, a decisive breakout above these resistance levels is critical. Such a move would not only boost market confidence but also likely attract fresh retail investment into the crypto space, potentially triggering a broader market rally
Crypto Total Market Cap Cycle Elliot Wave AnalysisThe chart explores 3 possibilities of where we could be in the current crypto market cycle.
Case 1 & 2 point to a likely probability that there are still 2 more upward waves to come.
Case 3 explores the possibility that there is at least one more upward move remaining for the cycle. All cases demonstrate that it is highly unlikely that we are at a market top in this cycle.
Total market cap chart Why total is important I hope I dont need to explain. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
Possible Targets and explanation idea
➡️Weekly chart. Marked 2 times with trade on indicator moment to SELL and out of crypto
➡️June 2022 was a main bottom for crypto and BTC especial
➡️November - January we are under real value of total
➡️C4L direction showed also November-January whales accumulate aggressively
➡️White zones is depression zones where whales also build average entry for investments
➡️Take profit lines marked by fib levels + take profit indicator before correction
➡️ Correction I think we will see at April-May 2024
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
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TOTAL3 Chart Analysis.
The TOTAL3 chart, representing the entire Altcoin market except for Ethereum, has successfully broken its downtrend resistance, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment. With the RSI remaining comfortably above 60, bullish momentum is gaining momentum, indicating growing confidence among market participants.
Historically, this pattern precedes a macro bullish phase, where small-cap Altcoins begin to surge, led by Bitcoin and Ethereum. A break above the $1.1T level could act as a catalyst, potentially igniting a broader Altcoin season as capital flows into the Altcoin market.
Let me know if you’d like further assistance or adjustments!
DYOR. NFA
TOTAL2 Index Set to Surge Towards $2.5 Trillion!CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
📈Which side you pick?
Bulls or Bears
This chart shows the gravity points for the TOTAL2 index. It also describes the potential targets and their different probabilities of realization. The nearest zones within this structure are highlighted in green.
After TOTAL2 broke above 1.29 trillion dollars, and with Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) decreasing, a very likely scenario for TOTAL2 is reaching the 2.5 trillion-dollar level.
⚡️Target:
2.5T
bitcoin dips below 60kbitcoin dips below 60k, but we're unfazed.
i see this playing out as we move into the depths of winter,,,
this crypto winter ❄️
why would this happen, you ask?
the answer is simple: a stop-loss raid.
a sharp wave 4 designed to shake out weak hands.
distribution may have already started, hypothetically speaking, but it'll take the rest of the year to unfold.
think of it like the jan 2021 -> april 2021 vibe, only on a slightly higher degree and timeframe.
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take note of the highlighted wave 2's and wave 4's on my chart.
what i'm illustrating is "the law of alternation," which states:
if wave 2 is flat, wave 4 will be sharp, and vice versa.
all the wave 2's in this cycle have been flats,
so by design, all of our wave 4's are set to be sharps.
this fits neatly into the larger cycle:
sharp retracements triggered by over-leveraged positions,
yet consistently bought up thanks to strong demand.
with each sharp retracement, however, the upward moves become smaller,
as momentum gradually fades.
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w4 target: below 60k
w5 target: between 150k-200k (conservatively).
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ps. i have recently shared a much more bullish idea via:
TOTAL is super bullish (1W)TOTAL also appears to have completed a large triangle and entered a bullish phase from the point where we placed the green arrow on the chart.
The structure of this bullish phase is not yet clear, but it is evident that only the first wave of the bullish phase has been completed.
Currently, the price is in the second corrective wave, which will likely conclude in the coming weeks. Afterward, TOTAL is expected to enter the third wave, which is a bullish wave.
We have identified the upcoming targets for TOTAL.
In this corrective wave we are currently in, the market will experience pumps and dumps aimed at liquidity hunting, so you should be cautious with your futures positions.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
TOTAL CRYPTO BULLRUN END Q1 2025The total crypto market capitalization appears to be nearing its peak, as we are now in the final stages of the larger-degree Wave 5. Within this wave, we anticipate a corrective move in the smaller subwave 4 before the final push in subwave 5. This final leg of the larger Wave 5 is projected to drive the market cap to at least $4.5 trillion.
$TOTAL Market Cap FUD Sell-Off 14% sell-off on Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap in the past 24 hrs
If we don't reclaim support here, could have another ~8% down to go. If that happens, I expect it to happen swiftly with a V-shaped recovery
Get your bids in!
NO NEED TO PANIC
Santa Rally still on the table 🎅
TOTAL 15M: Hidden Bullish Divergence on Fake-OutThe Total Crypto Market Cap is displaying a significant technical setup on the 15-minute timeframe. We've observed a hidden bullish divergence forming in conjunction with a false breakout pattern, suggesting strong continuation potential. The market has maintained its structural integrity despite the fake-out attempt, indicating robust underlying strength.
The primary trend direction remains bullish, evidenced by the series of higher lows forming on the 15-minute chart. A notable hidden bullish divergence has emerged between price action and the RSI indicator, where price made higher lows while the RSI showed lower lows - a classic continuation signal in an uptrend. The market's reaction to the false breakout demonstrates strong buying pressure, as prices quickly recovered and resumed the upward trajectory.
Price Targets
Based on the technical structure and the measured move from the pattern:
Initial Target: $3.85T (near-term resistance level)
Secondary Target: $4.0T (psychological round number)
Extended Target: $4.2T (based on previous move projection)
Entry Conditions
Primary entry at current market price ($3.51T) following confirmation of hidden divergence
Secondary entry on any pullback to $3.45T support level
Initial Stop Loss: $3.42T (below the recent swing low to protect against further fake-outs)
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: $3.85T (25% position size)
TP2: $4.0T (50% position size)
TP3: $4.2T (remaining position)
Stop Loss Placement: Below the recent swing low to accommodate market volatility
Position Scaling: Consider scaling into the position with 50% at entry, 50% on pullback
Market Conditions to Watch: Bitcoin's price action, as it often leads market direction
Additional Considerations
The presence of a false breakout followed by quick recovery suggests strong underlying buying pressure. The hidden bullish divergence adds significant weight to the continuation thesis, particularly given the overall market strength.
Bullish Case: Maintained as long as price holds above $3.42T with RSI showing positive momentum
Invalidation: A clear break and close below $3.42T would negate the setup
The broader crypto market is showing strength, with major cryptocurrencies maintaining their upward momentum. This macro context supports the bullish continuation scenario for total market capitalization.
ALTS Market Cap Chart AnalysisThe ALTS market cap has broken out of a descending broadening wedge, triggering a strong bullish rally. However, it is facing resistance at a key horizontal supply zone.
The Ichimoku Cloud shows strong bullish momentum, indicating the possibility of a continued upward move. A decisive breakout above this resistance level could trigger a significant rally, further strengthening the upward trajectory of the ALTS market.
For updates on other coins or personalized insights, feel free to reach out to DM.
@Peter_CSAdmin
TOTAL Update - Dec 10 2024Sometimes a tool as simple as parallel channel can help us identify important support/resistance zones.
Looking at the chart, it's obvious that TOTAL reached 3.6T zone. Not only is this zone the area where a couple of fibs exist, but also it is indeed the upper boundary of the long term ascending channel.
Higher possibility scenario is to see a drop towards 2.5T - 2.73T zone before continuing the rally towards higher level. In order to keep its bullish integrity, TOTAL must not drop below 2.28T level.
bitcoin hits 749k into 2025.gm,
in previous cycles, the duration from cycle low to cycle high has typically been roughly 1,000–1,100 days. currently, we are 742 days in, which suggests we still have about a year until the "expected top." this projected top also aligns with the global liquidity index in q4 of 2025.
the way i interpret this current structure is straightforward:
from the november 2022 low to the march 2024 high, the price action visually resembles five waves up. this is followed by a clean three-wave correction into august of 2024.
from the low in august of 2024, bitcoin appears to have formed a clean five-wave impulse to the upside and is now approaching a top. in theory, once this top is established, we should expect a three-wave corrective move to backtest the previous support. this support corresponds to the 2021/2024 highs and the previous accumulation zone.
hypothetically, backtesting the prior supply zone would likely liquidate many late long positions, providing a full sentiment reset. this reset could allow bitcoin to rebound with significant force, potentially reaching unprecedented levels.
my estimated upside target for q4 2025 is approximately $749,000.
✌️
ps. in my last bullish trade, i pulled at 9,000% trade on btc... and 42 alt trades, some of which ran as high as 22,000%.
view last bull post here: