Digital Assets & CBDCs1. Introduction
The world of money is undergoing one of its most radical transformations since the invention of paper currency centuries ago. Traditional money, largely issued by central banks and distributed through commercial banks, is increasingly being challenged and complemented by new forms of digital assets—cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, tokenized securities, and most importantly, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
This shift represents not only a technological upgrade but also a restructuring of global financial power, economic governance, and the very way individuals and institutions interact with money.
Digital assets emerged as decentralized alternatives to traditional finance, while CBDCs represent the state’s attempt to modernize sovereign currencies for a digital-first economy. Together, they form two poles of a financial revolution that blends innovation with governance, opportunity with risk, and decentralization with centralization.
2. Evolution of Money & the Rise of Digital Finance
To understand digital assets and CBDCs, we must first appreciate the journey of money. Human civilization has moved from barter systems to precious metals, from paper money to plastic cards, and now to digital wallets.
Barter → Commodity Money: Trade began with goods like salt, cattle, and gold.
Fiat Money: States introduced paper money backed first by gold and later by “trust” in central banks.
Electronic Payments: Credit cards, PayPal, UPI, and digital wallets became widespread.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (2009) introduced decentralized, peer-to-peer money outside government control.
CBDCs: Central banks are now experimenting with sovereign digital money to retain relevance in an era of decentralized assets.
This evolution highlights a key trend: money adapts to technology and social needs. In the digital age, instant, borderless, programmable, and secure money is becoming essential.
3. Understanding Digital Assets
Digital assets refer to any value representation in a digital format that can be owned, transferred, or traded electronically. They include:
a) Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC): The first cryptocurrency, designed as decentralized digital money.
Ethereum (ETH): Introduced smart contracts, enabling decentralized finance (DeFi).
Altcoins: Thousands of tokens powering blockchain ecosystems (Solana, Cardano, etc.).
b) Stablecoins
Unlike volatile cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are pegged to stable assets (e.g., USD).
USDT (Tether), USDC (Circle): Widely used for cross-border trade and crypto markets.
Provide stable digital liquidity for businesses and individuals.
c) Tokenized Assets
Real-world assets like real estate, bonds, or equities represented as digital tokens.
Benefits: fractional ownership, liquidity, global trading 24/7.
d) NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens)
Represent ownership of unique assets like digital art, music, or collectibles.
Though hype-driven in early stages, NFTs open doors to digital rights management and metaverse economies.
In summary, digital assets democratize finance, expand access, and create new ways of exchanging value.
4. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)
CBDCs are state-issued digital currencies, designed as legal tender. Unlike cryptocurrencies, they are centralized, backed by government trust, and operate under monetary authority.
a) Purpose of CBDCs
Enhance payment efficiency.
Provide financial inclusion to unbanked populations.
Counter private digital currencies (like Facebook’s failed Diem project).
Modernize monetary systems.
b) Retail vs Wholesale CBDCs
Retail CBDC: For general public use, replacing cash or complementing bank deposits (e.g., Digital Yuan, e-Rupee).
Wholesale CBDC: For financial institutions and interbank settlements (used by central banks, reduces transaction costs).
c) Technology Behind CBDCs
Blockchain / Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT).
Hybrid models combining centralized control with decentralized security.
Offline payment capability to serve rural or low-internet regions.
d) Global Case Studies
China’s Digital Yuan (e-CNY): Most advanced large-scale CBDC, tested in multiple provinces.
European Central Bank: Developing a “Digital Euro” for retail use.
India’s e₹ (Digital Rupee): Pilot projects for both wholesale and retail.
USA: Still researching; concerns over privacy and banking sector disruption.
Nigeria: eNaira, one of the first retail CBDCs, though adoption has been slow.
5. Benefits & Opportunities
Faster Payments: Instant cross-border settlements.
Financial Inclusion: Reaching unbanked populations in developing nations.
Transparency: Blockchain-based CBDCs reduce fraud.
Programmable Money: Governments can automate subsidies, pensions, and tax collection.
Reduced Costs: Cuts out middlemen like correspondent banks in global trade.
6. Risks & Challenges
Cybersecurity Threats: Hacking risks to CBDCs or wallets.
Privacy Concerns: Governments may track individual spending, raising civil liberty issues.
Banking Disruption: If people hold CBDCs directly, commercial banks may lose deposits.
Monetary Policy Risks: Easy printing of CBDCs could trigger inflation.
Regulatory Uncertainty: Lack of global consensus on digital asset rules.
7. Geopolitical & Economic Implications
Digital Yuan Challenge to Dollar: China’s e-CNY could weaken dollar dominance in trade.
US Strategy: Delaying CBDC but strengthening dollar-backed stablecoins.
IMF & BIS Role: Coordinating interoperability standards between CBDCs.
Emerging Markets: CBDCs could lower remittance costs (important for countries like India, Philippines, Nigeria).
8. Future Outlook
Coexistence Model: CBDCs for legal tender, stablecoins for liquidity, cryptocurrencies for investment.
Tokenized Economies: Real estate, stocks, commodities traded as tokens.
AI & IoT Payments: Smart machines paying each other using digital currencies.
Programmable Fiscal Policy: Governments embedding conditions in CBDC spending (e.g., subsidies usable only for food, not alcohol).
Conclusion
The rise of Digital Assets and CBDCs represents both an opportunity and a challenge. On one hand, they promise efficiency, inclusion, and transparency; on the other, they pose risks of surveillance, instability, and geopolitical conflict.
The most likely outcome is not a replacement of one form of money with another but a coexistence of multiple digital forms of value—cryptocurrencies for decentralized innovation, stablecoins for bridging fiat and crypto, and CBDCs for state-backed security.
Just as the printing press transformed trade in the 15th century, digital currencies are reshaping global finance in the 21st century. The winners will be those nations, institutions, and individuals who adapt quickly to this new monetary paradigm.
Trading
Currency Convertibility Issues in Global Markets1. Introduction to Currency Convertibility
Currency convertibility is critical for the functioning of international markets. A convertible currency allows:
Trade Facilitation: Businesses can pay and receive foreign currencies without restrictions.
Investment Flexibility: Investors can freely move capital across borders.
Economic Integration: Countries with convertible currencies can participate fully in the global economy.
Key terms:
Fully Convertible Currency: Freely exchangeable for any other currency without restrictions (e.g., US Dollar, Euro).
Partially Convertible Currency: Exchange is allowed for some transactions (like trade), but restricted for others (like capital account transactions).
Non-Convertible Currency: Cannot be freely exchanged; transactions require government approval or are prohibited (e.g., North Korean Won, Cuban Peso).
2. Historical Background
Historically, currency convertibility has evolved with global trade and economic integration:
Bretton Woods Era (1944-1971): Fixed exchange rates linked major currencies to the US Dollar, which was convertible to gold. Developing countries often had non-convertible currencies to protect domestic economies.
Post-Bretton Woods (1970s onwards): Shift to floating exchange rates increased currency convertibility, but capital controls remained in many emerging markets.
Modern Era: Globalization has pushed most developed nations toward full convertibility, while many emerging and frontier economies maintain partial restrictions to manage volatility and capital flight.
3. Types of Currency Convertibility Issues
Currency convertibility issues arise when restrictions impede the free exchange of a currency. They can be classified as follows:
3.1. Trade Convertibility Issues
Restrictions on import/export payments.
Limits on foreign exchange availability for international trade.
Common in countries with balance-of-payments crises.
Example: In India during the 1970s, foreign exchange allocation for imports was tightly controlled to manage reserves.
3.2. Capital Account Convertibility Issues
Restrictions on investment flows: foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, and lending.
Countries impose these to prevent sudden capital flight and speculative attacks.
Impact: While protective, it limits access to global finance.
Example: China maintains controlled capital account convertibility despite having a largely trade-convertible currency.
3.3. Dual Exchange Rate Systems
Countries maintain official vs. market exchange rates.
Official rate often underestimates currency value, creating incentives for black markets.
These systems arise due to currency overvaluation or limited reserves.
Example: Venezuela’s dual exchange rates in the 2010s caused widespread distortions in trade and imports.
3.4. Black Market and Parallel Market Issues
When official convertibility is restricted, a parallel market emerges.
Leads to currency speculation, inflation, and reduced confidence in the domestic currency.
Example: Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation in the 2000s led to a thriving black market for US Dollars.
4. Causes of Currency Convertibility Issues
Several factors can restrict currency convertibility:
4.1. Economic Instability
High inflation or fiscal deficits reduce investor confidence.
Governments may restrict convertibility to protect reserves.
4.2. Limited Foreign Exchange Reserves
Countries with small reserves cannot risk free capital outflows.
Convertibility restrictions are a tool to preserve reserves.
4.3. Speculative Attacks and Capital Flight
Free convertibility can trigger rapid outflows during crises.
Example: Asian Financial Crisis (1997) saw several currencies collapse due to speculative attacks.
4.4. Policy and Strategic Objectives
Some nations deliberately restrict convertibility to:
Protect infant industries.
Maintain control over foreign debt.
Shield the domestic economy from global shocks.
5. Implications of Currency Convertibility Issues
Currency convertibility issues have wide-ranging economic, financial, and social effects:
5.1. On International Trade
Restrictive policies increase transaction costs and delays.
Firms face uncertainty in pricing, payments, and hedging.
5.2. On Foreign Investment
Limited convertibility reduces investor confidence.
FDI inflows may decline, limiting economic growth.
5.3. On Domestic Economy
Encourages a shadow economy for foreign exchange.
Can lead to inflation and currency depreciation.
5.4. On Financial Markets
Currency volatility rises when markets anticipate policy shifts.
Hedging instruments are limited or costly.
6. Case Studies
6.1. India Pre-1991
India had strict foreign exchange controls and limited convertibility.
Imports and FDI required government approval.
The 1991 balance-of-payments crisis forced liberalization, leading to gradual convertibility.
6.2. China
China has a partially convertible Renminbi (RMB).
Trade account is largely convertible; capital account is tightly controlled.
This strategy stabilizes domestic financial markets while encouraging trade growth.
6.3. Venezuela
Overvalued Bolivar and dual exchange rates led to black markets.
Currency controls exacerbated inflation and scarcity of goods.
6.4. Eurozone
Euro is fully convertible across participating nations.
This has facilitated trade, investment, and capital mobility, highlighting the benefits of full convertibility.
7. Strategies to Address Convertibility Issues
Countries can adopt various measures to mitigate currency convertibility problems:
7.1. Gradual Liberalization
Phased approach from trade convertibility → capital convertibility.
Reduces risk of sudden outflows.
7.2. Strengthening Reserves
Adequate foreign exchange reserves improve confidence.
Enables smoother convertibility.
7.3. Exchange Rate Policy Adjustments
Managed float or crawling peg can balance stability with convertibility.
Avoids shocks from volatile global markets.
7.4. Capital Controls
Temporary measures during crises to prevent speculative attacks.
Should be transparent and predictable.
7.5. Encouraging Foreign Investment
FDI inflows bring foreign currency, supporting convertibility.
Incentives for long-term, stable investment help reduce risk.
8. Global Implications
Currency convertibility affects global finance in multiple ways:
Trade Expansion: Fully convertible currencies facilitate seamless trade and lower transaction costs.
Capital Flow Efficiency: Investors prefer economies with predictable currency exchange rules.
Financial Market Development: Convertibility encourages hedging instruments, derivatives, and risk management strategies.
Crisis Containment: Countries with restricted convertibility can insulate themselves temporarily from global shocks, but may also lose investor confidence.
9. Future Outlook
With globalization and digital finance, currency convertibility issues are evolving:
Digital Currencies and CBDCs: Central bank digital currencies may improve cross-border payments and reduce convertibility barriers.
Regional Currency Blocks: Initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the ASEAN Economic Community may enhance regional convertibility.
Emerging Market Reforms: Many emerging economies are gradually liberalizing currency accounts while balancing macroeconomic stability.
10. Conclusion
Currency convertibility is a vital aspect of economic integration and global financial stability. While fully convertible currencies offer benefits in trade, investment, and market efficiency, partial or non-convertible currencies provide temporary protection against volatility, capital flight, and external shocks. Understanding the nuances of convertibility issues helps policymakers, investors, and businesses navigate the complex global financial landscape. Future trends, including digital currencies and regional financial cooperation, are likely to shape how convertibility evolves in the next decades.
GPBUSD Analysis October 1📌 #GBPUSD
The pair bounced strongly after retesting the important support zone around 1.334. Currently, the 1.341 zone is acting as an important support, maintaining the uptrend.
If the buying pressure continues and the price stays above 1.341, the next target could be towards the important resistance zone of 1.365. In the short term, the 1.352 area will be the confirmation point for the continued bullish momentum.
🔑 Key levels
Support: 1.341 – 1.334
Resistance: 1.352 – 1.365
📈 Trading scenario
BUY priority when the price rejects the decline at the 1.341 zone
BUY DCA can be considered when the price breaks 1.352
🎯 Target: 1.365
BTC consolidates after a significant price spikeBITSTAMP:BTCUSD price has had a slight correction after the previous increase.
Yesterday, the price broke the trendline and the EMA approached, creating a momentum accumulation zone before a strong break - as planned to buy.
Currently, BTC is correcting after the increase, just cutting down the EMA, showing that buying power is weakening, the short-term trend may turn down.
There is no clear signal to enter the order. Continue to observe the price reaction around the EMA and wait for a clear setup before taking action.
You can refer to my previous analysis here:
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GBPAUD: Price Holding Below Daily HTLDaily Timeframe:
Price initially crossed below daily HTL on September 11th, but failed to hold below it as price reversed for the following days
Price crossed below daily HTL again on September 30th, but closes below significantly
Price attempted to trade above HTL, but failed to close above it accordingly
H1 Timeframe:
There's confluence here as price crosses below ATL
Price is also below EMA20 and the EMA band is beginning to widen
XAUUSD – Holding the Primary Uptrend (BUY Bias)
Hello traders,
On the H4 timeframe, gold continues to demonstrate a sustained upward trajectory. After testing the upper trendline, price rebounded and is now consolidating around the 386x region. This suggests the market is in an accumulation phase, awaiting key news.
Fundamental Context
Tomorrow’s release of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to be a major driver of volatility in gold.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding a potential US Government shutdown adds to macroeconomic instability, reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.
At present, there is little justification for a decline in gold, especially as broader markets are also breaking higher.
Technical Analysis
Price remains within the ascending channel on H4, with buyers still in control.
The MACD indicator is above the zero line, showing no significant weakness.
Price is likely to consolidate within the 3860 – 3870 band before any strong move triggered by news.
Trading Plan
Buy Setup (priority – trend aligned)
Entry: 3829 – 3832
SL: 3825
TP: 3845 – 3862 – 3877 – 3890
Sell Scalping (counter-trend, high risk)
Entry: 3927 – 3930
SL: 3934
TP: 3915 – 3900 – 3882 – 3865
Note: Sell trades should be treated only as short-term scalps, as the dominant bias remains bullish.
Conclusion
Gold continues to respect its bullish structure, with no clear signs of weakness. Against the backdrop of political uncertainty and the forthcoming NFP release, the priority remains buying from favourable support zones. Any sell positions should be viewed purely as short-term reactions.
👉 Follow me for timely updates whenever price structure shifts.
Trend and Impact of the US Political Situation on Gold PricesHello everyone,
Gold prices have seen significant volatility recently. The price dropped sharply by $70/ounce, falling to $3,800/ounce. However, gold has made an impressive recovery, regaining $60 to reach $3,860/ounce.
This reflects a major correction after gold reached a record high on 30th September. However, the decline in gold prices has been limited by concerns over the potential US government shutdown, as the Democratic and Republican parties have failed to reach an agreement on the spending plan for federal activities. If an agreement is not reached, this situation could cause major disruptions, including halting public services and cutting wages for federal employees.
This has created uncertainty in the financial markets, with many investors increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. As a result, after dropping to $3,800/ounce, gold quickly rebounded.
Analysts believe that the uncertainty from the risk of a US government shutdown will continue to support gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. However, profit-taking activities and fluctuations in the USD could cause short-term volatility.
Investors are particularly waiting for additional economic data and political developments to guide their next trading strategy.
With these factors influencing the market, gold is likely to trade within a wide range in the near term. Key support levels are currently around $3,800–$3,850/ounce, with the next resistance levels at $3,900 and $4,000.
What are your thoughts on this scenario? Will gold continue to rise, or will it face a correction? Please share your views below.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 2, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 2, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Shutdown watch: Traders brace for possible delays in major data releases; only essential reports like jobless claims likely to print.
📉 Post-ADP/ISM digestion: Markets recalibrate after Wednesday’s jobs + factory data ahead of Friday’s 🚩 NFP.
💵 Fed chatter: Dallas Fed’s Logan adds to policy tone as markets parse shutdown + labor signals.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) (will publish even under shutdown)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug) (at risk of delay if shutdown persists)
⏰ 10:30 AM — Fed Speaker: Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #joblessclaims #factoryorders #Fed #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #economy
Price Trend Under Economic News InfluenceHello everyone,
Ethereum is showing important signals on the 4-hour chart as the price recently touched the $4,180 level and started to correct. Several Fair Value Gaps (FVG) have formed densely within the $4,000–$4,100 zone, suggesting that the market may return to this area for balance before determining sustainable bullish momentum. This will be a key support zone in the short term, where buyers could test their strength.
The strong volume increase at the end of September indicates continued demand, but the resistance at $4,180 may cause ETH to retreat to $4,100–$4,050 before gathering momentum to move up again. If the support holds, the bullish trend could continue towards $4,300, and even potentially reach $4,500–$4,600 if resistance breaks.
However, upcoming volatility will largely depend on US economic data, especially the NFP report. A weak report could boost expectations for policy easing, supporting ETH's rise, while strong data may apply downward pressure. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and the risk of a US government shutdown remain unpredictable variables.
What are your thoughts on this scenario? Will ETH correct, or will it continue its breakout? Share your opinion in the comments below.
AKE/USDT ( AKEDO) CAN SHOW WHALE DCA INCREASE TO $0,005 TARGET📊 Cycle Update – AKEDO/USDT
Current price is consolidating in the DCA Whales Zone (0.00137 – 0.00144), showing that accumulation is likely taking place.
This level acts as a cycle base, where strong hands are active in building positions.
As long as price holds above this zone, the cycle remains intact with upside potential.
The next major target sits around $0.005, which is over 3x from current levels and aligns with the open space on the chart.
✅ Outlook: With whale DCA activity confirmed, this cycle has the potential to expand upward, and reclaiming momentum above accumulation could trigger the next leg to $0.005.
EURNZD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
EURNZD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 2.0172 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 2.0224
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPNZD Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear friends,
GBPNZD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 2.3177 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 2.3199
Recommended Stop Loss - 2.3165
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDSEK: Price Crosses Below HTL AgainUSDSEK traded below the daily HTL, but there's weakness after price crossed back above.
On the other hand, the H1 timeframe is showing weakness. Price is failing to make higher high so I'm betting on downside momentum to pick up.
Reduced position size since we are nearing New York rollover.
NZDCAD FREE SIGNAL|SHORT|
✅NZDCAD Price has tapped into the supply level after a corrective push, rejecting inefficiency and signaling continuation lower. ICT perspective suggests targeting liquidity resting below recent lows. Time Frame 4H.
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Entry: 0.8115
Stop Loss: 0.8135
Take Profit: 0.8085
Time Frame: 4H
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SHORT🔥
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EUR-JPY Rebound Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EURJPY price tapped into the horizontal demand area, after a sharp decline, sweeping liquidity and rejecting imbalance. From an SMC viewpoint, we anticipate a relief rally toward the marked target level. Time Frame 5H.
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NEAR/USDT – Long Spot Trade Setup | Key Support TestNEAR Protocol (NEAR) is currently testing a strong support level around $2.60–$2.70, which has held multiple times in recent sessions. This zone has shown consistent buying interest, forming a potential base for a bounce or trend reversal. Price action is consolidating just above this support, indicating the bulls are defending this level.
This presents an opportunity for a long spot entry at the current range. The trade idea is based on the assumption that this support will continue to hold, offering a low-risk entry point with favorable upside potential. A confirmation candle or spike in volume could validate the move.
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
• TP1: $3.35 – $3.80
• TP2: $4.40 – $5.00
🛑 Stop Loss: Just below $2.40 to manage downside risk and protect capital in case of a breakdown.
DAX: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DAX together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 24,143.24 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 24,058.86 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 3,860.57 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.17271 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.17136.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER: Move Up Expected! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 47.276 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 47.837.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️