From Panic to Patience: The Psychology of Holding Through NoiseMarkets can be a noisy place. Screens flash, feeds scroll, and your cousin won’t stop texting you with urgent stock tips.
Yet if you zoom out, the difference between traders who burn out and traders who build wealth often comes down to one underrated skill: the ability to hold.
Not forever, of course, and not in ignorance. But to hold through the chatter, the dips, and the occasional headline apocalypse without throwing your strategy in the bin.
Let’s talk about how patience beats panic, and how you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs .
📉 Why Panic Is Easy
When a chart turns red, our lizard brains scream louder than Jim Cramer on Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA day. Humans are wired to avoid loss more than to seek gain — a concept called loss aversion. Especially during events from the Economic calendar or the Earnings calendar — nasty surprises can tilt you off kilter.
In trading terms, losing $1 hurts twice as much as making $1 feels good. That’s why you’ll often see people bailing at the first sign of trouble, only to watch prices reverse and rally without them.
But most “market crises” are just noise. If you zoom out, markets wobble, shake, and zig-zag before resuming their long-term trend. But panic-selling is a reflex, and unless you train yourself out of it, it’ll cost you over and over.
⏳ The Patience Premium
Patience in trading isn’t granted — it’s a superpower. Think of it as the compounding effect of discipline. When you resist the urge to sell into weakness or chase into strength, you give your trades time to play out according to your thesis instead of your emotions.
This doesn’t mean becoming a bagholder or marrying a bad stock. It means knowing the difference between short-term volatility and a true trend reversal . Spoiler: they’re not the same thing.
Warren Buffett (obligatory Buffett quote) once said the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. In other words: the longer you can wait without flinching, the better your odds.
📰 The Problem with Market Noise
Every week brings a new villain: tariffs, inflation, “this time it’s different” chatter. But most of the time, these events don’t destroy trends — they just shake weak hands out of positions.
Think back to April’s tariff shock . Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD dipped, stocks slid, headlines screamed.
Not even a week later, the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC vaulted higher by 12% for its best day in 24 years.
A few months later, markets not only recovered but ripped to new highs . The traders who panicked out at the bottom? They locked in losses. The ones who sat tight with a plan? They got paid.
🧘 Training the Trader’s Mind
You can’t mute the market, but you can build a mindset that handles it better. Start by reframing volatility. Instead of “Oh no, my position is doomed,” think “Let’s see if my thesis remains valid, or I’ll consider bailing.”
Other tips:
• Position sizing . If you’re too heavy in one trade, every tick feels like life or death. Keep sizes reasonable, and the noise gets quieter.
• Set rules in advance. Decide your stop-loss and target before you hit buy. That way, you’re not making panicked choices mid-storm.
• Practice detachment. It’s not your stock. It’s a trade. Don’t let ego glue you to every uptick.
These aren’t hacks; they’re habits. Build them, and noise turns from overwhelming to manageable.
🎢 The Cyclical Nature of Stress
Holding through noise isn’t just about one bad week — it’s about recognizing that markets move in cycles. Bull runs, corrections, consolidations… rinse, repeat.
When you’re in a correction, it feels endless. When you’re in a rally, it feels invincible. Neither is true. Both will pass. Your job isn’t to predict every twist, but to ride the broader wave without getting tossed by every splash.
This is why seasoned traders talk less about “calling tops” and more about sticking to process. Trends matter more than headlines.
💡 Patience ≠ Blind Holding
Let’s clear something up: patience doesn’t mean diamond-handing garbage stocks to zero. It means sticking to positions where your thesis still holds. If the fundamentals or technicals break, you cut it. If the only thing that’s breaking is X’s collective sanity, you hold.
The art is knowing the difference — and that’s what separates a patient trader from a stubborn one.
🔑 From Panic to Patience in Practice
So how do you go from reactive panic to steady patience? Try this framework:
• Zoom out — Look at the weekly or monthly chart before you sell on a 15-minute candle.
• Check the plan — Does your original thesis still make sense? If yes, why exit?
• Limit your exposure — Never risk so much that a drawdown keeps you awake.
• Reframe the noise — Headlines pass. Trends endure.
That’s the difference between panic selling and strategic holding.
🎯 Bottom Line
Holding through noise is as much psychology as strategy. It’s about resisting the knee-jerk sell, trusting your process, and understanding that volatility is part of the game. The traders who master patience don’t just survive noise — they profit from those who can’t handle it.
So next time the S&P 500 heatmap lights up red, ask yourself if this is the end of it, or just another chapter in the endless saga of market drama? More often than not, it’s the latter.
Off to you : What's your strategy when you need to filter the noise out? Share your thoughts in the comment section!
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BTC ULTIMATUM: True Top Reached, Blow-Off Phase About to ExplodeHey everyone,
Let's cut through the noise. The market is flooded with conflicting signals about a potential market top, but the data on the chart is telling a crystal clear story. Many are getting this cycle wrong, so pay close attention.
Here's the truth: The Actual Cycle TOP was established back in JANUARY 2025.
That's right. However, the timing didn't align with the simplistic 4-year cycle models many were following. The definitive confirmation came with the recent powerful breakout and close above the $109,000 level. This wasn't a false breakout; it was the market screaming that the cycle is far from over.
What we are witnessing now is not the end of the bull market. This is the launch sequence for an extensive BLOW-OFF TOP formation.
The Current Setup: Building the Blow off top Launchpad
As the chart clearly shows, we are currently in a pullback, retesting the most critical zone in the market right now: the $109k - $106k area.
Why is this zone so important?
• This is the former resistance (the January '25 top) that has now become the ultimate support. • This is the Blow-Off Top Base.
• The bulls are making a strong stand here, working to absorb selling pressure and accumulate for the next and likely final major parabolic rally of this cycle.
Think of this consolidation as the coiling of a spring. The longer and tighter it holds this base, the more explosive the eventual breakout will be.
The Path Ahead: Key Levels to Watch
1. The Imperative Support (The Base): $109,000 - $106,000
This is the line in the sand. A sustained close below $106,000 would invalidate the immediate blow-off top scenario and signal a much deeper correction is likely. As long as we hold above here, the macro structure is overwhelmingly bullish.
2. The Immediate Resistance (The Trigger): $124,000
This is the next major hurdle. A decisive break and close above $124,000 will be the signal that the blow-off top phase is accelerating. It will confirm that the base is solid and the engines are firing for the climb to the projected target zone.
3. The Projected Target Zone: $145,000 - $160,000
Based on the chart's projections, a successful hold of the base and a break above $124k opens the path towards the $145,000 to $160,000 range. This is where we could see the euphoric, parabolic peak of this entire Bitcoin cycle.
Stop listening to the top-callers who are early. The market structure is clear:
• We HAVE broken the previous cycle high.
• We ARE building a massive support base above it.
• We ARE poised for a historic blow-off top.
MY PLAN:
• Aggressive: Accumulate in the $109k-$106k base zone with tight stops below.
• Conservative: Wait for a confirmed breakout and close above $124,000 to enter for the parabolic move.
The journey to six figures is behind us. The journey to the cycle peak is just getting started.
Stay disciplined, trade the levels, and ignore the noise.
Like, follow, and share your thoughts below! Are you accumulating in the base, or waiting for the $124k breakout confirmation?
Support and Resistance in Crypto: Why They Work1. Introduction
Every trader has heard of support and resistance. They are the most common levels drawn on charts, and for good reason: markets consistently react to them.
But what makes these levels so powerful? Why do millions of traders watch them and why does price often respect them?
Support and resistance are not magic. They are simply psychological levels, supply and demand zones, and self-fulfilling expectations all converging.
2. Defining Support and Resistance
Support: A price level where demand is strong enough to stop price from falling further. Traders buy here, creating a “floor.”
Resistance: A price level where selling pressure outweighs demand, stopping price from rising further. Traders sell here, creating a “ceiling.”
Think of them as zones, not exact lines. Markets are messy, and price often wicks through before reacting.
3. Why They Work: The Psychology
Support and resistance function because traders remember these levels:
Fear & Greed: Traders who missed buying at support wait for price to return. Sellers at resistance wait to “get out at breakeven.”
Anchoring: Once a level has reacted multiple times, more traders trust it.
Stop Placement: Traders often put stop losses beyond support/resistance, creating liquidity pools that attract price.
In short: these levels represent collective memory of the market.
4. The Supply and Demand Connection
Behind every level is a simple truth: markets move because of imbalances.
At support, buyers step in, creating excess demand.
At resistance, sellers dominate, creating excess supply.
5. Types of Support and Resistance
Not all levels are created equal. Common ones include:
Horizontal Levels – obvious highs/lows on the chart.
Trendlines – diagonal support/resistance following direction of trend.
Moving Averages – dynamic levels that act as support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends.
Psychological Round Numbers – like $1,000 or $2,000 on ETH, where traders naturally cluster orders.
6. How Traders Use Them
Support and resistance are used in multiple ways:
Entries: Buying near support, selling near resistance.
Exits: Taking profit at resistance, cutting loss below support.
Stop Loss Placement: Stops often go just below support or above resistance.
Breakouts: When resistance breaks, it can turn into new support (and vice versa).
7. Limitations and Traps
Support and resistance are not invincible.
False Breakouts: Price can wick beyond levels to trigger stops before reversing.
Changing Market Conditions: A strong support can fail in a new trend.
Overcrowding: When everyone sees the same level, liquidity hunts occur.
Good traders combine S/R with confirmation, volume, candlestick signals, or broader market context.
8. Closing Thought
Support and resistance work because markets are driven by human behavior and collective memory. They reflect where buyers and sellers previously fought and where they are likely to fight again.
But the real edge isn’t just knowing the levels. It’s knowing how to act when price reaches them, and how to manage risk if they fail.
BMNR Technical Outlook: A Textbook PlayStructure and Pattern Recognition
BMNR has developed a constructive base while holding its broader uptrend structure. The chart highlights the potential formation of a double bottom reversal, a classical pattern that often signals the exhaustion of selling pressure and a shift toward accumulation. The neckline aligns closely with recent liquidity zones (LQ), providing a clear reference point for confirmation.
Key Levels and Setups
Price is currently consolidating around the $50–$52 range, supported by the trendline from early August. Above, the immediate target lies at the $57–$60 liquidity zone, followed by a higher expansion opportunity toward $65–$67. If momentum persists, the upper extension into $71+ remains in play. A break and sustained close below the ascending trendline, however, would invalidate the structure and shift focus back to the mid-$40s.
Volume Profile and Momentum
The volume profile confirms heavy participation around the $50 area, creating a strong base of support. As price reclaims the 200 EMA and breaks above local resistance, order flow is likely to accelerate toward higher supply zones. This aligns with the thesis that any breakout above neckline resistance could trigger a measured move targeting the mid-$60s.
Outlook and Scenarios
Bullish Case: A confirmed breakout above the $57–$60 zone validates the double bottom structure, opening the path toward $65–$67 and potentially $71.
Bearish Case: Failure to hold the $50 trendline support exposes BMNR to a deeper retracement, with downside risk into the low-to-mid $40s.
Conclusion
BMNR sits at a technical crossroads. While downside risk remains if $50 fails, the pattern structure and volume dynamics favor continuation higher if resistance breaks. Traders should monitor the neckline breakout as the defining signal for near-term direction.
Gold Tops $3,800 to New Record as Traders Wonder: Short or Long?Gold OANDA:XAUUSD is back in the spotlight, flashing new record highs in bold efforts to reclaim its throne as the ultimate “don’t panic” asset.
The yellow metal hit a record high of $3,820 per ounce early Monday morning before cooling slightly to hover near $3,810. That’s up more than 47% year-to-date, absolutely crushing Bitcoin’s BITSTAMP:BTCUSD modest 17% gain and the S&P 500’s SP:SPX respectable-but-boring 13%.
So the question isn’t whether gold is hot — it’s what traders should do about it. Go long, go short, or sit tight with popcorn and watch the shiny show? Let’s break it down. 🤸🏻♀️
📈 A Rally Forged in a Rush
Gold’s monster run this year didn’t happen in a vacuum. Inflation has stayed sticky, but not alarmingly so — Core PCE clocked in at 2.9% in August, unchanged from July.
More importantly, markets are convinced that Jerome Powell and his not-so-merry band of central bankers will restart the rate-cutting cycle. Following the September cut , another trim could come as early as October.
Lower rates mean the opportunity cost of holding gold gets a lot smaller. (Gold famously pays no yield, no dividends, no interest, no nothing!). If Treasuries aren’t giving you much, parking money in shiny metal suddenly feels smarter. That’s been a huge tailwind for bullion.
On top of that, Trump last week announced tariffs on imported drugs, trucks, and furniture. Every time the tariff machine fires up, traders reach for their safe-haven toolkit. Spoiler: gold is always in there.
✨ Why Gold Still Glitters
Gold isn’t just a shiny rock — it’s a psychological anchor. Investors treat it like insurance against bad times. With rate cuts looming, central banks are buying aggressively. That way demand has a natural floor.
Global central banks, led by heavyweights like the US, China, Russia, and Turkey, have been stacking gold for months. That creates a structural bid under prices, no matter what institutional investors are doing day-to-day.
And don’t forget the everyday crowd: ETFs and bullion dealers have seen renewed inflows as traders hedge against “what if Powell loses control?” scenarios.
In short: gold thrives when confidence in the dollar, the economy, or politics falters. Check, check, and check. The dollar’s lower by about 10% on the year, the economy may or may not be adding jobs after wild job-count revisions . And politics? That’s where the US slaps tariffs on everyone.
📉 The Bearish Angle: Why Short Might Work
Now for the spicy take — maybe gold’s run is overdone. At nearly $3,800, the metal’s flirting with parabolic territory. There’s no recent support for a potential rebound so the way south could be steep. As steep as the first available support zone near $3,500.
Shorting gold here is essentially a bet that:
• The Fed’s cuts are already priced in.
• Inflation could flare up again, forcing rates higher, which could pressure gold.
• Risk assets rebound, reducing the appeal of hiding out in safe havens.
And let’s not forget: gold’s moves aren’t always rational. When everyone’s piled into the same safe haven, the smallest spark can trigger a stampede for the exits. A dip back to $3,500 — the April record — wouldn’t surprise seasoned traders. Speaking of steep selloffs, that’s exactly what happened after that April high.
🚀 The Bullish Angle: Why Long Still Makes Sense
On the other hand, momentum is a beast, and right now, gold has it. Every dip this year has been met with eager buying. As long as central banks keep accumulating and the Fed sticks to the rate-cutting script, the long case should stay intact.
The macro backdrop is still uncertain and murky: tariffs, wobbly jobs data, political drama, and a dollar that looks tired. That’s not a bad mix for more upside. A decisive breakout above $3,791 could put $4,000 on the radar, giving long traders another juicy leg higher.
🔀 Noise, Narratives, and the Middle Ground
Here’s the tricky part: both the bull and bear cases have merit. Gold’s fundamentals support strength, but technicals hint at exhaustion (RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions).
That’s why positioning is everything. Reliable stops and clear risk-reward targets are your friends here — whether you’re riding the momentum wave or calling its top.
Seasoned traders know this dance: gold rallies hard, then chops sideways for weeks, lulling everyone into boredom before it explodes again. The key is not to let noise — tariffs, tweets, or Fed chatter — shake you out of your plan. But also, keep an eye on the Economic calendar and be ready for the next wave of reports and data.
🎯 Bottom Line
Gold’s 47% rally this year makes it the star of the market, but it also makes it vulnerable. A case exists for shorts (froth, more than anything) and for longs (structural demand, central bank buying, Fed easing).
The real takeaway? Don’t pick a side out of emotion. If gold breaks convincingly above $3,791, momentum traders will be justified in staying long. If it fails at resistance and rolls over, bears may get their payday.
Off to you : What’s your position in gold? Are you looking for more appreciation or you’re a short seller? Share your thoughts in the comment section!
The AI Bubble's Final Act: Why $SP:SPX 6,700 May Be the TopThe AI Bubble's Final Act: Why SP:SPX 6,700 May Be the Top
Unemployment + Rate Cuts = Recession (12 for 12 Since 1970)
The Death Cross Pattern
There's a simple rule that's worked for 55 years: When the Fed cuts rates while unemployment is rising from cycle lows, recession follows within 12 months - every single time.
Think of it like a doctor taking your temperature while giving you painkillers. The medicine might make you feel better temporarily, but if the fever is rising, something serious is wrong underneath.
Current Status:
✅ Fed just cut rates ECONOMICS:USINTR (September 2025)
✅ Unemployment ECONOMICS:USUR rising from 3.4% cycle low
✅ TVC:SPX at all-time high ($6,700)
Historical Result: 12/12 times = recession + 35% average equity crash
The Precedent: Crisis Follows a Script
2000 Dot-Com Bubble:
Setup: TVC:SPX at ATH (1,550), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 3.9%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting
Crisis: Technology "revolution" story breaks down
Result: -49% crash over 2.5 years
Recovery: 7 years to new highs
2008 Financial Crisis:
Setup: CBOE:SPX at ATH (1,576), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 4.4%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting
Crisis: Housing/credit bubble bursts
Result: -57% crash over 1.5 years
Recovery: 5 years to new highs
2025 AI Bubble:
Setup: SPREADEX:SPX at ATH (6,700), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 3.4%→4.2%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting ✅
Crisis: AI productivity story meets employment reality
Projection: -35 to -45% crash over 18 months
Recovery: 3-5 years (faster due to tech infrastructure remaining)
The AI Employment Paradox
The Productivity Mirage
Wall Street celebrates AI boosting productivity, but here's the paradox:
productivity gains = job losses = reduced consumer spending = recession.
Think of it like a factory owner celebrating a new machine that replaces 100 workers. Great for margins, terrible for the local economy when those 100 families stop spending.
Jobs ECONOMICS:USNFP at Risk by Sector:
Customer Service: 2M jobs (chatbots replacing agents)
Software Development: 500K jobs (AI-assisted coding reducing teams)
Transportation: 3M jobs (autonomous vehicles accelerating)
Administrative: 4M jobs (AI handling routine tasks)
Content Creation: 1M jobs (AI writing, design, video)
Total Impact: 10+ million jobs facing displacement over next 2-3 years
Why This Time is Different?
Unlike previous automation waves that created new job categories, AI is targeting cognitive work directly. A factory worker could become a service worker, but what does a displaced knowledge worker become?
Valuation Extremes: 1929 Levels with 2025 Leverage
Current Valuation Metrics:
Shiller CAPE: 38+ (higher than 1929's 33)
Buffett Indicator: 195% (market cap/GDP, historical average 85%)
Price/Sales: 3.3x (vs 1.4x historical average)
Forward P/E: 23x (on optimistic AI earnings assumptions)
Valuations today exceed 1929 by most measures - but with far more leverage embedded in the system. If 1929 was a valuation bubble, 2025 is that bubble layered with derivatives, corporate debt, and passive flows.
The Leverage Layer:
Margin Debt: $1.023 trillion (record high)( as of July 2025, ycharts )
Corporate Debt/GDP: 85% (vs 45% in 2000)
Derivatives Exposure: $700 trillion notional ( as of June 2025, BIS semiannual data )
ETF/Passive Flows: $1.5 trillion annually (forced selling on reversals)
When liquidity stress hits, derivatives amplify shocks - notional exposure dwarfs underlying assets.
Think of today's market like a house of cards built on a trampoline. Even small bounces can bring the whole structure down.
Technical Breakdown: The Charts Don't Lie
Major Warning Signals:
Market breadth has deteriorated from 90% in Q4 2024 to ~60% today,
Defensives led earlier in the year,
TVC:VIX Volatility’s floor has shifted higher
Credit risk appetite (HYG/TLT) is stretched.
Together, these signal fragility beneath the index surface.
The Three-Stage Technical Collapse:
Stage 1 - The Warning (Now-Q4 2025):
Current Level: $6,700
Initial Support: $6,200 (previous resistance)
Character: Failed rallies, rotating leadership, "healthy correction" narrative
Target: 5,800-6,000 (-10 to -13%)
Stage 2 - The Cascade (Q4 2025-Q2 2026):
Breaking Point: Below 5,800 triggers algorithmic selling
Character: "Buy the dip" stops working, margin calls begin
Target: 4,800-5,200 (-25 to -30%)
Stage 3 - Capitulation (Q2-Q4 2026):
Final Flush: Panic selling, ETF redemptions
Character: "Markets will never recover" sentiment peaks
Target: 3,700-4,200 (-35 to -45%)
The Catalyst: When Reality Meets Hype
Q4 2025 Earnings Season - The Reckoning
Companies will face impossible questions:
"You spent $50B on AI - where's the revenue growth?"
"Productivity is up 20%, why are you laying off workers?"
"If AI is so transformative, why are margins declining?"
The Employment Data Domino Effect:
October/Nov NFP: First print above 250K unemployment claims
November Consumer Spending: Down 2%+ as job fears spread
December Holiday Sales: Weakest since 2008
January Layoff Announcements: Tech companies start "right-sizing"
Think of it like the moment in 2000 when investors finally asked: "How exactly does Pets.com make money?" or 2007 when they wondered: "What's actually in these mortgage bonds?"
Sector-by-Sector Breakdown
Technology (-50 to -70%)
AI hype stocks get destroyed first
Software companies face declining growth + competition
Semiconductor cycle turns negative
Biggest Losers: NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL
Consumer Discretionary (-40 to -55%)
Unemployment hits spending immediately
High-end retailers crushed first
Auto sales collapse with higher rates
Biggest Losers: TSLA, AMZN, NKE
Financials (-30 to -45%)
Credit losses surge as economy weakens
Interest margin compression
Commercial real estate exposure
Biggest Losers: Regional banks, non-bank lenders
Relative Outperformers (-15 to -25%)
Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples
Companies with genuine AI cost savings
High-dividend yielders in low-rate environment
Key Dates and Catalysts
October 2025:
Jobs report (first warning?)
Q3 earnings disappointments
Fed meeting (dovish pivot?)
November 2025:
Election aftermath volatility
Black Friday sales data
Thanksgiving week low-volume crashes
December 2025:
Year-end tax selling
Institutional rebalancing
Holiday retail reality check
Q1 2026:
Layoff announcements surge
Earnings guidance slashed
Credit events begin
The Recovery Setup
Why This Crash Creates Opportunity:
Valuation Reset: P/E ratios back to historical norms
Weak Hands Flushed: Margin traders eliminated
Government Response: Fiscal + monetary stimulus
AI Infrastructure Remains: Real productivity gains continue post-bubble
Recovery Timeline:
Bottom: Q4 2026 around 3,700-4,200
Initial Rally: 30-50% bounce over 6 months
New Bull Market: Begins 2027 with stronger foundation
New Highs: 2029-2030 timeframe
Risk Management Rules
This Analysis Fails If:
Fed pivots to massive QE before crisis
Fiscal stimulus exceeds $2 trillion quickly
AI productivity gains offset job losses faster than projected
Geopolitical crisis overrides economic fundamentals
Probability Assessment:
60%: Correction to 4,800-5,500 range (25-30% decline)
25%: Major crash to 3,700-4,200 range (40-45% decline)
15%: Continued melt-up through 2026 (soft landing achieved)
Conclusion: The End of the Everything Era
At SPX 6,700 with unemployment rising and the Fed cutting rates, we're witnessing the final act of the 15-year "everything bubble."
The AI revolution is real, but like the Internet in 2000, revolutionary technology doesn't prevent financial gravity.
The bubble is ending exactly like the previous ones - with everyone believing "this time is different" right until it isn't.
Smart money is already rotating defensive. The question isn't whether a correction is coming - it's whether you'll be positioned for it.
Wall Street Weekly Outlook - Week 40 2025Every week I release a Wall Street Weekly Outlook that highlights the key themes, market drivers, and risks that professional traders are watching.
This week promises to be particularly important, with several events likely to move markets. 📊 Stay ahead of the curve—watch the video now and get prepared like a Wall Street insider.
Any questions? Drop a comment or reach out directly.
-Meikel
Apple Shares (AAPL) Close to Reaching Record HighApple Shares (AAPL) Close to Reaching Record High
On 10 September, we noted that following the launch of new products — including the iPhone 17 — AAPL shares had fallen by approximately 1.5%, as analysts considered the model lacked the breakthrough appeal necessary to drive further growth.
However, two weeks on, media reports point to strong demand for the new product range, highlighting that:
→ orders for the new devices exceed those for last year’s iPhone 16 series;
→ Apple has asked suppliers to increase production;
→ the base model, featuring the long‑awaited 120Hz display and the powerful A19 chip, is in especially high demand.
Positive reports of long queues at Apple Stores worldwide, along with extended delivery times — which Bank of America estimates at an average of 18 days compared to 10 days for last year’s model — have only bolstered bullish sentiment. AAPL shares are rising this week, even as broader market indices are falling.
Technical Analysis of Apple (AAPL) Shares
AAPL stock price movements in 2025 form a broad ascending channel (shown in blue). In this context:
→ Until early August, the price remained in a consolidation phase (shown by black lines) below the channel’s median;
→ Since then, the balance has shifted in favour of buyers — the price has demonstrated bullish momentum, forming a steep growth channel (shown in orange), with the median providing support (indicated by an arrow).
The strength of demand is confirmed by AAPL’s price action rising from $240 to $250:
→ bullish candlesticks were wide;
→ closing prices were close to the highs;
→ a bullish gap is visible on the chart.
This points to a buyers’ imbalance, giving grounds to regard this area as support in terms of a Fair Value Gap pattern.
From a bearish perspective:
→ the RSI indicator is in overbought territory;
→ shareholders may wish to take some profits.
Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that AAPL’s price growth will continue, driven by expectations that strong demand for the iPhone 17, as well as the updated Apple Watch Series 11 and AirPods Pro 3 with new AI features, will deliver record quarterly revenue for the company, covering the upcoming holiday season. In this scenario, bulls may target the upper boundary of the blue channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVIDIA – Bumping Up Against Record HighsNVIDIA’s share price is experiencing an interesting run into the end of September as traders try and work out whether it can extend its run of gains through all time highs sitting just above the 184 level (184.55 Sept 22nd), a line in the sand that has capped the upside since the start of August (more on this in the technical update below).
With NVIDIA being the biggest company in the world by market capitalisation, currently sitting at a huge $4.34 trillion (No.2 Microsoft, $3.79 trillion), and it being the bellwether for AI performance, it’s not short of news flow to create periods of volatility.
Only on Monday, the company announced a $100 billion link up with Open AI to build new data centres and expand AI infrastructure together, which sent its stock price up 4% towards that 184 resistance, only for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech on Tuesday to send it back lower again as investors banked profits, when he offered a more cautious outlook towards future Fed rate cuts into the end of the year.
Looking into the end of the week, the focus may be on US economic data again, with the release of the final US Q2 GDP reading at 1330 BST today, and perhaps more importantly, the PCE index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due tomorrow at 1330 BST. Traders seem to be very sensitive to these inflation readings, given that they could determine whether the Fed is able to cut interest rates again before the end of 2025. Any deviation from expectations, to the up or downside could have an outsized impact on sentiment towards the NVIDIA stock price into the Friday close.
Technical Update: Watching Record Highs
Since reaching its 184.48 high on August 12th, NVIDIA has twice attempted to break and close above this resistance, on August 28th and September 22nd. The latest attempt did set a new intraday high of 184.55, but as the chart below shows, resistance held again by the close, triggering another sell-off from that level.
This price action confirms the 184.48/184.55 range as a potentially key resistance area. A successful close above it could lead to a further phase of price strength.
While not a guarantee of continued upside, a closing break above 184.48/184.55 could open the path to 192.14, a level equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. If this level were to also give way on a closing basis, the next resistance may prove to be 196.91, which is the higher 61.8% extension.
Of course, with resistance at 184.48/184.55 still capping price strength, there's also the risk that support levels could give way, possibly suggesting further downside in price activity.
Initial support may now be marked by 175.11, the Bollinger mid-average, which is currently containing the latest pullback in price. While a close below here may not confirm extended price weakness, it might open the door to test lower supports at 168.41, which is the September 17th low, possibly even 164.07, a level equal to the September 5th extreme.
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Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
The Options Mirage: The Jackpot That’s Rigged Against YouMost retail traders fall in love with options because they seem to offer the impossible: with just a few hundred dollars you can dream of outsized returns. Fast money, easy money—at least that’s the story. With the right broker account and a handful of trades, the dream of becoming rich feels just around the corner.
What you’re not told—and what few truly understand given the complexity of the product—is that the “explosive payout” is not an opportunity. It’s a price. A very high one. And often inflated by the industry itself, knowing that the average investor (or rather, gambler) has no real way to calculate what they’re actually paying for. What you’re really buying is access to an extremely low probability of success, dressed up as a sophisticated strategy.
Yes, it’s the same psychology that drives lotteries and sports betting. And in finance, the odds aren’t any kinder.
The Baseline: the Where
At its simplest, speculation is about anticipating an up or down move in price.
Think it’s going up? Buy and aim to sell higher.
Think it’s going down? Sell and aim to buy back lower.
It sounds simple, but anyone with more than a month of trading experience can tell you it’s anything but. No one can predict the future with certainty. Still, this is at least a binary game: two mutually exclusive outcomes, like flipping a coin.
In technical terms, the market starts as a 50/50 distribution. With skill, analysis, and discipline, you might bias those odds slightly—say, 60/40 in your favor. That bias, repeated consistently, is what we call an edge. And with an edge, the path to long-term success is paved.
The Illusion of Acceleration
But let’s be honest: who wants to grind out a 60/40 edge slowly? We’re here for the Lamborghini, right? And the sooner the better.
That’s where the industry steps in with its “solution”: options. The promise is seductive—leverage the process, accelerate the outcome. With little money down, you can aim for massive returns. What’s not to like?
The problem is that the acceleration doesn’t come for free. To deliver those explosive payouts, the game adds layers of complexity.
From Where… to How and When
In options, you don’t just need to be right about where price is going.
You also need to be right about how it moves. That’s volatility—the speed and amplitude of the move. Even if you guess the direction correctly, if the move isn’t strong enough to beat strike + premium, you lose.
And then comes the when. Options expire. Time works against you. With the rise of 0DTE options, this window has shrunk to a single day. You might be perfectly right on direction and volatility—but if it happens tomorrow instead of today, your trade is worthless.
Now here’s the key point: this isn’t additive complexity. It’s multiplicative. Each layer collapses your probability of success exponentially. Even though the mathematical proof could be enlightening, I have promised not to use heavy math in this blog. All you need to know is this: in the majority of cases, that collapse in probability is not evenly compensated by the outsized payout. And this is exactly what most retail traders fail to perceive.
It’s not just that you’re playing a harder game—it’s that you’re playing a biased one, where the odds are stacked even further against you.
The Lottery Bias: The Cognitive Trap
Here’s where psychology plays its cruelest trick. The lower the probability of success, the higher the payout offered. In fact, it’s not even the full payout you deserve—it’s a discounted, haircut payout, cleverly packaged so you don’t notice because the potential number is so large. And that number lights up the brain like a jackpot.
The industry knows this. It builds its business on the fact that humans systematically overestimate tiny probabilities and underestimate the certainty of losing. Retail traders convince themselves they’re being clever: risking little for the chance at something huge. But the math is merciless—the expected value is brutally negative.
The market is not handing you an edge. It’s dismantling any possibility you had of one. That giant payout you see? It’s not a gift—it’s a warning label.
And yes, I know you can point to stories about the guy who hit the jackpot, who “proved the math wrong.” But let me ask you this: do you know what survivorship bias is? If you don’t, and you’re trading options, here’s some professional advice for free—go and read about it before you place your next trade.
The Real Path to the Lambo
What gets sold as “smart leverage” is, in truth, just a lottery ticket wearing a suit. The Lambo doesn’t come from hitting jackpots. It comes from consistency—from repeating disciplined decisions with positive expectancy until compounding does its quiet but powerful work.
And yes, I know most traders are in a hurry. The good news? The process can be accelerated—but not by gambling on options with negative expectancy. It can be accelerated using technical, rational tools. Once an edge is established, leverage makes sense. That’s where concepts like the Kelly criterion come in: scaling growth aggressively, but without walking straight into ruin. (I’ve already written about Kelly earlier in this blog: here.)
Conclusion
We’ve stripped the illusion bare: more conditions don’t make you smarter, they make you less likely to succeed. What feels like a shortcut is nothing more than a statistical mirage—the financial equivalent of a lottery ticket, marketed to you as a “highway to riches,” exploiting your belief that complexity equals intelligence.
Unfortunately, the narrative is powerful, because it preys directly on cognitive bias. I know I’m swimming against the tide here. I know this post won’t go viral. I don’t expect many to believe what the math has to say about options trading.
But maybe, just maybe, a small number of traders reading this will see beneath the surface and save their time, energy, and money for better pursuits. If that’s you, then this post has already done its job.
If you can resist the mirage and stick to building real edges, you’ve already won a key battle—and most likely saved yourself a costly trading lesson.
Retro Editors' picks 2024Closing our retro EP selection , we present to you the last collection of additional scripts that have earned a spot in our Editors' picks, in this case from 2024.
These retrospective selections reflect our continued commitment to honoring outstanding contributions in our community, regardless of when they were published. To the authors of these highlighted scripts: our sincere thanks, on behalf of all TradingViewers. Congrats!
Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • Significance - fikira
Adaptive Trend Classification: Moving Averages - InvestorUnknown
analytics_tables (library) - jason5480
Tick CVD - KioseffTrading
Simple Decesion Matrix Classification Algorithm - Steversteves
RiskMetrics (library) - TradingView
Over the last four months, we shared retro Editors' picks for subsequent years:
May: retro EPs for 2020
June: retro EPs for 2021
July: retro EPs for 2022
August: retro EPs for 2023
They are visible in the Editors' picks feed .
█ What are Editors' picks ?
The Editors' picks showcase the best open-source script publications selected by our PineCoders team. Many of these scripts are original and only available on TradingView. These picks are not recommendations to buy or sell anything or use a specific indicator. We aim to highlight the most interesting publications to encourage learning and sharing in our community.
Any open-source script publication in the Community Scripts can be picked if it is original, provides good potential value to traders, includes a helpful description, and complies with the House Rules.
— The PineCoders team
The Bear Market Isn't Coming? Old BTC Playbook is a TrapFor years, traders have relied on Bitcoin's predictable cycles. We look for the same clues, the same topping signals, and the same patterns. But what if the market has evolved? What if the playbook we've all been studying is now a trap?
This analysis dives deep into key indicators across all three major bull runs, comparing the RSI, MACD, Volume, and especially the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP). The data suggests that while some classic bearish signals are flashing, the market's underlying structure is telling a very different, and potentially much more bullish, story.
A Tale of Two Cycles: The Historical Baseline
To understand where we are, we must first look back.
The First Bull Run (2015-2017): This cycle was defined by raw, explosive power. The weekly RSI crossed above 80 a staggering four times. However, the end was confusing. We had bearish RSI divergences fighting against bullish MACD. The primary exit signals were a massive spike in selling volume and a BBWP reading that finally hit 94%, signaling trend exhaustion. It was effective, but messy.
The Second Bull Run (2018-2021): This cycle top was much clearer and became the "classic" model for many traders. The RSI crossed 80 only twice, and the end was signaled by a textbook combination of:
Classic bearish divergences on the RSI and MACD.
Obvious selling pressure at the top.
Crucially, the BBWP spectrum crossed 90% three separate times, screaming trend exhaustion before the final downturn.
The Current Cycle: A New Breed of Bull 📈
Now, let's analyze our current cycle, which began in November 2022. On the surface, some things look familiar, but the engine of this trend is behaving in a completely unprecedented way.
The Familiar Signs (The Bear Case):
Yes, we can see a classic bearish divergence forming on both the RSI and MACD. Furthermore, the recent buying volume, while still okay, is showing signs of weakness compared to the explosive start of the rally. This is what is causing many analysts to call for a cycle top, just like before.
The Unprecedented Anomalies (The Bull Case):
This is where it gets interesting and why the old playbook may fail.
No BBWP Exhaustion: Unlike the (2015-2017) (2018-2021) bull runs, the BBWP spectrum has not crossed 90% a single time during this entire uptrend. The volatility has never reached the levels of euphoria and exhaustion that marked previous tops. The trend, while strong, has not shown signs of being "finished."
The Contraction Anomaly: This is the most compelling signal on the chart. Historically, a major BBWP contraction (the indicator squeezing down) signals that energy is building for a massive expansion in price. This event has almost always marked the beginning of a new bull phase or the start of a major move up. Yet, here we are at the supposed end of the cycle, and the BBWP is contracting again. This has never happened at a cycle peak before. This odd behavior suggests that instead of winding down, the market could be coiling up for another powerful move, Also the number of contractions in this cycle is much higher than the pervious cycles which explains the elliot waves unexpected targets
Elliott Wave Strength: While I have not drawn the Elliott Wave count here because every trader's interpretation can be subjective, my personal count indicates that the current wave structure is targeting prices significantly higher than the current all-time high.
Summary and Final Thoughts
To summarize, while we have some classic, textbook bearish signals that would have marked the top in (2018-2021), we also have powerful, unprecedented evidence suggesting this cycle is different.
The lack of a BBWP exhaustion signal (>90%) is a major deviation from the last 2 cycle top.
The current BBWP contraction at a "cycle end" is a massive anomaly. This is typically a pre-trend signal, not an end-of-trend signal, and could be hinting at a major breakout ahead.
This is not a guarantee of a continued bull run, but rather a data-driven observation that the market is showing a structure we haven't seen before. Relying solely on the old playbook could be a mistake. The market is evolving, and our analysis must evolve with it.
I have marked every anomaly and pattern on the chart, You can zoom in and analyze for yourself
I'm open to all discussions and opinions in the comments
Trade safe and keep an open mind.
QE and YCC: What does it all mean?ECONOMICS:USCBBS
CBOT:ZB1! CBOT:ZN1! CME_MINI:NQ1!
There is growing market speculation that the Fed may tolerate inflation above 2% for longer, consistent with its Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) framework introduced in 2020.
This also implies that real rates i.e., nominal rates minus inflation are likely to fall significantly. Given this, we anticipate gold to continue trending higher as the U.S. dollar's purchasing power erodes with mounting debt, persistently higher inflation, and falling real yields.
What is QE?
Quantitative Easing (QE) refers to the Fed injecting liquidity into financial markets by purchasing large quantities of assets such as Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and U.S. Treasuries, especially during periods of economic stress like the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2008) and the COVID-19 downturn.
How Does QE Work?
Asset Purchases: The Fed buys large volumes of Treasuries and MBS from financial institutions.
Balance Sheet Expansion: These purchases expand the Fed's balance sheet (now hovering near $6.6 trillion, per FRED).
Increased Liquidity: Banks receive excess reserves in exchange, increasing system-wide liquidity.
Lower Interest Rates: Demand for bonds pushes prices higher and yields lower.
Economic Stimulus: Lower borrowing costs promote credit creation, investment, and consumer spending.
However, a key drawback of QE is asset price inflation. As seen between the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic, low rates and excess liquidity drove significant appreciation in equities, housing, and other financial assets, even while consumer inflation remained near target.
QE vs. Stimulus Checks
If traditional interest rate policy is Monetary Policy 1 (MP1), then QE is MP2. Stimulus checks, or government handouts, fall under MP, a fusion of monetary and fiscal policy.
While QE primarily injects liquidity into financial institutions, stimulus checks inject purchasing power directly into households. This approach where the Treasury issues debt and the Fed purchases that debt, stimulates demand for real goods and services. We saw this during the post-COVID recovery, which brought a sharp rebound in consumer activity but also a surge in inflation, reaching a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 (CPI YoY).
QE impacts Asset Price Inflation
Stimulus Checks impact Goods & Services Inflation
What is YCC? (Yield Curve Control)
Yield Curve Control (YCC) is a policy whereby the central bank buys government debt across various maturities to control yields not just at the short end (via rates), but across the entire yield curve.
A prime example is the Bank of Japan, which has used YCC since 2016 to anchor 10-year JGB yields near zero. The Fed has not formally adopted YCC, but market participants believe it may lean in that direction in the future especially during crises where long-end rates rise undesirably. Mounting US debt and rising long end yields may prompt the Fed to step in and adopt YCC like BoJ has done previously.
Front-End Control: Managed via policy rates
Long-End Control: Central bank buys 5Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y Treasuries to anchor yields
Potential Risks of YCC:
Credibility Risk: If inflation rises while the central bank suppresses yields, it may lose market trust.
Currency Pressure: Artificially low yields may trigger speculative pressure on the currency (as seen with the yen under BoJ YCC).
We’ve kept this concise and digestible for now, but there’s more to unpack—especially on the long-term implications of coordinated monetary-fiscal policy (MP3), debt sustainability, and central bank credibility.
The Fed’s balance sheet chart shows how Fed’s balance sheet has increased:
Aug 1, 2008: $909.98B
Jul 1, 2017: $4.47T
Aug 1, 2019: $3.76T
Feb 1, 2020: $4.16T
Mar 1, 2022: $8.94T
Aug 1, 2025: $6.61T
Note that this is not just a US phenomenon. It is a world wide phenomena looking at many of the developed and emerging markets. The Debt to GDP ratios are increasing, Central Banks balance sheets are rising in tandem with rising government debt.
With the rate cutting cycle starting, it is a matter of time that we also see QE restarting.
If you’d like us to dive deeper into any of these topics in future educational blogs, let us know. We're happy to build on this foundation with more insights.
Trend Following: How to Ride Waves Without Getting Washed OutMarkets move in waves. Easy, right? But if you’ve tried catching one only to find out you get washed out, you’ve realized it ain’t’ that easy.
Sometimes there are gentle ripples that lull traders into boredom, other times they’re tsunamis that wipe out everything in sight.
The trick isn’t predicting when the next big set will hit – it’s learning how to catch it without falling off your board from the get-go. That’s where trend following comes in. Simple, structured, and surprisingly effective, it’s a strategy that says: stop guessing, start riding.
🌊 Catching It, Not Fighting It
At its core, trend following is about spotting momentum and sticking with it. If prices are climbing, you’re a buyer. If they’re falling, you’re a seller. No need to argue with the market about “fair value.” The trend follower’s mantra is: Mr. Market is always right, I’m just here to hitch a ride.
Why does this work? Because markets are essentially a bunch of thinking participants who move in herds. They share the same fears, hopes, expectations, and goals.
Traders, funds, and algorithms pile into the same ideas, technical patterns, and price levels, pushing valuations higher or lower. Your job isn’t to outsmart the herd – it’s to ride with it until the stampede loses steam.
Or better yet, spot the opportunity before the herd. "I am the animal at the head of the pack. I either get eaten, or I get the good grass,” says David Tepper, hedge fund manager.
🤫 Why It’s Harder Than It Sounds
“Buy high, sell higher” feels wrong anywhere but in the market. Human brains are usually wired to hunt for bargains, not chase expensive things. But there’s something about a record high that pulls you in and makes you say “Take my money!”
Traders love to bet on success. So when they see that Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is at $117,000 , near a record, it’s easier to throw cash than when it’s crashing and burning at a 60% discount.
True, no trend stays intact after a huge drop. But sometimes it’s better to see confirmation that the trend is exhausted than to exit during a mild dip and risk missing out on the big move.
Trend following isn’t about catching every top or bottom. It’s about accepting that you’ll never time it perfectly, but if you stay disciplined and let the trend play out, you’ll capture at least some of the move.
But in trading everything’s possible – some prefer to catch tops and bottoms, and that’s completely fine as long as it works.
“For twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms,” says Paul Tudor Jones, another big name in the industry.
📈 Tools of the Trade
So how do you know a trend is worth following? Traders lean on a few classics:
• Moving averages : If the 50-day is above the 200-day, that’s your green light. Prices above both? Bullish trend intact. Prices dive below the 200-day? Cue that a bear market is here.
• Support and resistance : Connect the dots (literally) and see if the price is respecting an upward or downward slope.
• Breakouts : When the price pops above resistance or drops below support on big volume, that’s the market saying, “Watch this.”
• Reversals : For those that like to live on the edge, spotting reversals might be a good way to catch a move from start to finish.
The trick isn’t in the tool itself, but in sticking to the plan when the inevitable wiggles and pullbacks happen.
🚤 Don’t Mistake Chop for Trend
Not every chart with bars pointing up is a trend. Sometimes you’re just looking at chop – those sideways, back-and-forth price moves that exist to chew up stop-losses and ruin Fridays.
Trend followers learn to wait for confirmation. That could mean a clean breakout with volume, or a moving average crossover with conviction. Enter too early, and you may find yourself drowning in false signals.
A confirmation is oftentimes triggered by economic news and reports. So pay attention to big and small releases stacked in the Economic Calendar .
🛟 The Stop-Loss Lifeboat
Here’s a little secret of trend following: you’ll be wrong a lot. The method is built around small losses and (occasional) big wins. That’s why stop-losses are essential . You’re not trying to win every trade, you’re trying to catch the few monster trends that more than pay for the slip-ups.
Think of it like surfing: you’ll get wiped out plenty of times, but you only need one clean wave to make the day worthwhile.
📊 The Math Behind the Swings
Why does this work over time? Because of asymmetric returns. If you risk $1 to make $3, you only need to be right 30% of the time to profit. Trend followers build systems where the losers are cut quickly, but the winners are allowed to run. That’s where the proper risk-reward ratio comes in.
Most traders do the opposite. They cut winners too early (“I’ll take my quick profit!”) and let losers drag on (“It’ll bounce, right?”).
🧩 Famous Trend Followers
This isn’t just theory. The Turtle Traders in the 1980s—an experiment by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt—proved that complete novices could learn a rules-based trend following system and make millions. Fast forward, and big CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) still run billions using similar strategies today.
They all share one principle: don’t predict, only follow.
⏳ Patience Pays
The hardest part isn’t identifying trends. It’s sticking with them. Every pullback will tempt you to bail. Every analyst estimate, every scary headline, even your cousin at Thanksgiving telling you “Ether’s going to zero” will test your patience.
But trends don’t end because you got nervous. They end when the move breaks. Patience is what separates the trend followers who catch the big wave from the ones stuck paddling.
🎯 Final Take: Ride It Out
Trend following may not make you look like Paul Tudor Jones calling tops and bottoms. But it will keep you aligned with where the money is flowing. And when you’re on the right side of a trend, the ride is smoother, the wins are bigger, and the stress is lower.
Off to you : When’s the last time you got a nice wave and surfed it out to completion? Share your experience in the comments!
EURUSD: Rally from Wedge Support to 1.1880Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup.
Market Analysis
A prior uptrend failed, leading to a sharp drop down to the major Support zone 2 around the 1.1450 level. However, strong buying pressure emerged from that low, initiating a powerful reversal and establishing the current market structure.
This new bullish phase has formed a well-defined Upward Wedge. The price successfully broke through Support 1 and tested the wedge's resistance. Currently, it's in a healthy corrective pullback and is testing the ascending support line of this wedge, which is a key area to watch.
My Scenario & Strategy
I'm looking for the price to complete its correction and find a solid floor on the ascending support line. A confirmed bounce from this dynamic support would be the key signal that the next impulsive move up is about to begin.
Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this bounce. A successful rebound would validate the long scenario. The primary target for the next wave higher is 1.1880, which would represent a new structural high within the Upward Wedge.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
BTC Breakdown: Watching 112.6K-113.5K for Rejection Toward 109kHello guys!
Trend Structure:
The price was moving in a clear ascending channel, but recently broke down below the lower boundary with strong bearish momentum. This confirms a structural shift from bullish to bearish sentiment.
Current Price Action:
After the breakdown, BTC attempted a relief rally but is now struggling around the 112,682 – 113,581 resistance zone (marked in blue). This area was previously support inside the channel and is now acting as resistance (role reversal).
Scenarios (Entries):
Rejection at 112,682 zone:
If BTC fails to break above this resistance, sellers could step in and push the price lower. A clean rejection here would open the way toward 109,884 (next major support).
Deeper pullback to 113,581:
If bulls manage to push higher, the 113,581 level becomes the last line of resistance. A rejection here would be a high-probability short entry, also targeting 109,884.
Target Zone:
Both rejection scenarios point to 109,884 as the key downside target. A break below that level would increase bearish momentum toward 108,000 and possibly lower.
XAUUSD Long: Bullish Momentum to ContinueHello, traders! The price auction for XAUUSD has been in a strong bullish phase, confirmed by the establishment of a well-defined ascending channel. This uptrend was initiated after a breakout from lower levels and has shown significant strength by pushing through multiple prior resistance areas, including the 3470 DEMAND 2 and 3675 DEMAND levels, turning them into new support.
Currently, the price action is continuing its ascent within the upper portion of this ascending channel, indicating that the bullish initiative remains firmly in control. The market is in a clear expansion phase, with very little sign of significant selling pressure, suggesting that any pullbacks are likely to be minor and short-lived.
My scenario for the development of events is a direct continuation of the current bullish momentum. I believe that the price will only make a shallow correction from the current levels before the next impulsive wave higher begins. In my opinion, the underlying trend is strong enough to carry the price to a new high within the channel. The take-profit is therefore set at 3835 points, targeting the upper resistance line of the channel. Manage your risk.
Losses = Tuition Money? How Much Have You Paid?Everyone loves to show their wins.
But the other side – losses – is rarely talked about. Yet they’re often the real teacher.
👉 The question few dare to ask:
How much tuition have you already paid to reach where you are today?
My Experience
For me, it was a very long road.
In my early years, I lost far more than I wanted to admit.
Many times I thought the markets were rigged – that a small trader couldn’t win.
But eventually, I realized:
➡️ It’s not the news that moves the chart – the chart makes the news.
➡️ If you observe long enough, you see patterns – and you realize you yourself are the biggest risk.
What helped me most
✅ Keeping a trading journal – radical honesty with myself.
✅ Questioning emotions – was it greed, fear, or lack of patience?
✅ Isolation with the craft – studying charts, testing setups, staying disciplined.
✅ Accepting that losses are part of the game – but learning how much each loss is worth before it becomes dangerous.
The Dark Side
Trading can become unhealthy.
Without a plan, it’s no different than gambling – chasing the next trade like poker or roulette.
👉 Sometimes the problem isn’t the loss itself, but the addiction to the next trade.
That’s why I had to make a clear choice:
Will I treat trading as a profession – with rules and structure – or just as a hobby?
Today it’s a profession for me. But only because of years of mistakes, testing, and tough self-reflection.
Questions for You
💬 How much tuition have you paid – and how do you deal with it?
💬 Have you ever hit rock bottom and grown only through reflection?
💬 Do you see losses as education costs – or as failures to be forgotten quickly?
💬 Are you now at a level where you trade profitably and consistently – or is trading still just a side hustle or passion?
💬 Most importantly: how did you change your mindset to improve?
💡 My View
In the end, losses shape us far more than wins.
Wins feel good – but losses build the mindset and character you need to survive long term.
👉 That’s why I believe we should share not just the shiny stuff – but the honest side too.
That’s what really helps us grow as a community.
Bear market has startedThe End of the Bull Cycle. Why I'm Selling Everything and Won't Buy Again Until September 2026.
For the last year and a half, I have said that we are in a bull market. I never once changed my opinion. But all things come to an end. The time has come.
September 13, 2025, the date I have been mentioning across my social media, was, in my opinion, the peak of this market cycle. As painful as it may sound, the bull market is over.
"Altseason" is a Scam. It's Time to Grow Up
Let's be honest. The "altseason" that everyone was dreaming of never happened. Yes, there were pumps on selective, mostly new coins. But the old guard, for the most part, showed nothing.
Therefore, I want to officially declare: I will never use the word "altseason" again. It's a meme from 2017. There are now over a million coins on the market. Liquidity is so diluted that pumping everything is impossible. Instead of "altseason," we have, and always will have, "selective pumps" driven by interested players. Our job is to learn how to find them, not to wait for a mythical wave that will lift all boats.
Why Now? The Classic Signs of a Top
I wouldn't be so certain if I didn't see the classic signs of euphoria that always appear at the top of a cycle:
- Universal Optimism: Governments are embracing crypto, creating reserve funds.
-Corporate Buying: Public companies are massively buying Bitcoin and Ethereum.
-Positive News: The media is filled with only positive news; no one wants to sell and is waiting for $200k, $300k, $500k.
When the crowd rushes into the market, smart money begins to exit. I prefer to be with the latter.
My Personal 2-Year Plan. Maximum Transparency
I'm not just saying the market will fall. I am publicly sharing my plan of action:
1. I am exiting the market into stablecoins NOW. I am locking in my profits.
2. I will NOT be buying the first correction. When Bitcoin drops to $90,000, most people will be buying, thinking it's a discount. I will not.
3. I plan to start actively buying again in September 2026.
Why so long? Because those who buy at the $90-100k mark risk sitting through two years of psychological and financial drawdown just to break even. I am not willing to pay that price. I won't disconnect from the market; I'll keep my finger on the pulse, but I don't plan on making any active buys.
Cycles Work. My Technical Rationale
My decision is not based on emotion but on cycle theory, which I have tested for years. The cycle consists of ~151 weeks of growth and ~51 weeks of decline. We have just completed the growth phase. The period between September 13 and October 6 is the exact reversal zone after which a decline should begin.
I could be wrong. No one can be right all the time. Perhaps the cycle theory will break this time. But I trust my system.
Conclusion: What's Next? The Long-Term View
I have not become a bear forever. I believe Bitcoin will hit $300,000. But not in the coming months. It will be worth that in 2.5 years, after a healthy 50-60% correction from the peak.
From this moment on, my bias is bearish. On strong upward bounces, I might even open short positions. A new game is beginning, with new rules. My job is to preserve my capital and multiply it in the next cycle. What about yours?
Why bear market started now Proofs:
Best regards EXCAVO
IPO Market Is Hot – Explore Winners, Losers & Listing CandidatesThe IPO market has woken up from its multi-year nap and is now in beast mode. But as always, Wall Street’s hottest party comes with an entrance fee and a dose of uncertainty – opaque prices, sketchy balance sheets, and a whole lot of FOMO.
So who’s winning, who’s losing, and who’s still waiting in the pipeline? Let’s find out.
🚀 The IPO Mania Returns
After years of drought, IPO mania is back in full swing. More than 150 companies have listed this year – up from 99 at this point in 2024 and just 76 in 2023, according to Renaissance Capital.
Together, they’ve raised nearly $30 billion, compared with $24 billion last year. First-day gains? Averaging 26%, the best since 2020. IPOs aren’t just back, they’re back with conviction.
Renaissance estimates we could see 40–60 more deals before the year is out. In other words, if you thought you missed the fun, the afterparty’s still ahead.
🤗 The Winners
Some debuts have been straight out of an IPO fantasy league.
Circle NYSE:CRCL , the stablecoin issuer, lit up the screens with a jaw-dropping 168% surge on its first trading day.
Firefly Aerospace NASDAQ:FLY , a rocket and lunar lander, blasted 30% higher on its IPO day, living up to its name.
Klarna NYSE:KLAR didn’t exactly moon, but a 15% pop for a lossmaking buy-now-pay-later firm isn’t shabby in this environment.
Then there’s Figure NASDAQ:FIGR , the blockchain-native mortgage lender. Since its listing in mid-September , it’s up 44% even after a midweek stumble. Investors love a fintech-meets-crypto mashup story – and Figure is playing it well.
Who said Figma NYSE:FIG ? The design software maker went vertical in its market debut , although reality has since slapped it down from those frothy day-one highs. Still, design nerds everywhere are proudly watching their favorite platform make its way up the rankings among the world's biggest software companies .
😭 The Losers
Not every IPO has the golden touch.
StubHub NYSE:STUB , the ticketing platform, came in hot with an 8% intraday pop above its $23.50 listing price, only to end its first session underwater at $22 . The days after? Even worse – the stock is floating near the $18 mark.
CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV , the AI up-and-comer, is a really interesting one. First off, it stumbled at the start after pricing its shares at $40 to float in March.
It traded under its IPO price for a while before clawing back with AI hype fueling the shares by 450% May through June. Then insider selling knocked the winds out of its sails in August.
Now it’s gravitating at triple its offering price, proving IPOs are a marathon, not a sprint.
🎲 The Pricing Game
The truth is, IPO pricing is as much science as it is art (and sometimes performance art). Investment banks like Goldman NYSE:GS , Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS , and Citi NYSE:C run the roadshows, build the books, and set the price. Oversubscribed IPOs often guarantee a strong open. Undersubscribed ones? Crickets.
Bears hate this one simple trick: most IPOs only float about 15–20% of the company. That tiny slice of tradable shares means volatility is baked into the flotation. Throw in a 180-day lockup (when insiders can’t sell), and early trading is a weird mix of price discovery and pure speculation.
💡 The Fundamentals Still Matter
The hype is real, but the numbers don’t lie. Valuations on some of these newly public firms are eye-watering. Circle trades at 130x earnings estimates, Figma at 184x. Compare that to Adobe’s 5x and you see how far the IPO froth can go.
Meanwhile, many of these firms aren’t consistently profitable. They post alternating quarters of red ink and black ink while investors cheer growth over everything.
🦄 Unicorn Watch: Who’s Next?
Here’s who’s buzzing on the IPO radar and what they’re worth in 2025:
• OpenAI, AI overlord, $500 billion
• SpaceX, rockets and satellites, $450 billion
• xAI / x.com, Elon Musk’s AI play, $200 billion
• Anthropic, OpenAI rival, $190 billion
• Databricks, data and AI analytics, $100 billion
• Stripe, payments giant, $92 billion
• Revolut, digital banking, $75 billion
• Canva, design platform (and your CV maker), $42 billion
• Fanatics, sports merch and betting, $30 billion
• Discord, chat for gamers (and everyone else), $15 billion
• Solera, software and data for auto and insurance, $10 billion
• Grayscale, crypto asset manager (part of Digital Currency Group), $10 billion
• AlphaSense, market intelligence, $4 billion
• Wealthfront, robo-advisor, $2 billion
• Quora, knowledge-sharing platform, $500 million
📉 The Risk of Chasing
So should you pile in? Here’s the trader’s dilemma: first-day pops are seductive, but inflated pricing means you’re often exit liquidity for early investors.
Waiting a few days, weeks, or even months for the froth to fade, lockups to expire, analyst coverage to roll in, and the hype to cool may be the smarter play.
🫶 Final Take
The current IPO season is hot, but so is the risk. But every IPO is different. Circle shows monster returns are possible, while StubHub proves not every ticker deserves a ticker-tape parade.
The winners? Companies with strong fundamentals (not just growth, but profits) and a story that Wall Street loves right now (AI, crypto, fintech).
The losers? Overpriced firms without consistent performance. The candidates? Mega-unicorns waiting for their grand entrance and some smaller players ready to make a splash.
As always, timing is everything. Here’s to hoping your favorite IPO won’t list right after a hawkish Jay Powell.
Off to you : What IPOs are on your radar for this year and the next? Share your thoughts in the comments!
INDV - Helping Trump Fight The Drug War In The US and Overseas.Thought this was a good example of the kind of stock I like to trade.
Not all of these have to be true to make it tradable. Just things I like to see.
Up over 100% over the last 12 months
Nice and steady price gains continuing to make higher highs
Had a good bump on earnings
Has had a recent pullback of 10-15% into a better value area as investors took some profits
Looks like it consolidated and established a support area
Analysts are bullish and think there is quite a bit of upside to its price
Starting to head back up
RSI and MACD both show a change in direction and buyer momentum coming back into the stock
Could be worth a watch.
Nvidia Returns to Yearly Highs on Temporary Boost in ConfidenceNvidia’s stock started the week with a gain of more than 4%, maintaining a steady bullish bias after it was announced that the company will invest over $100 billion in OpenAI to support the development of artificial intelligence infrastructure. As part of the agreement, Nvidia is expected to receive OpenAI shares as compensation. This move reflects both companies’ commitment to sustained growth in the AI industry and suggests that Nvidia views this project as a key step to strengthen its position beyond microchip production, seeking to consolidate itself as a strategic player in the sector over the long term. For now, market confidence has fueled buying pressure, and if further announcements are made, this trend could continue to dominate in the short term.
Short-Term Sideways Range at Risk
In recent weeks, Nvidia’s price had been moving within a sideways range, with a ceiling near $183 per share and a floor around $162. However, the latest bullish momentum is pushing the stock to test this resistance. If buying pressure holds, the range could break out and pave the way for a more relevant bullish bias in the coming sessions.
RSI
The RSI line remains above the neutral level of 50, showing that short-term bullish momentum has begun to dominate the average of the last 14 sessions. As long as this trend continues and the indicator does not enter overbought territory, buying pressure could become even more relevant in the short term.
MACD
The MACD histogram has started to show oscillations above the neutral 0 level, suggesting that the average strength of the moving averages has entered a steady bullish zone. If this signal persists, it could open the door to a stronger bullish bias in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
$183 – Yearly Resistance: Marks the yearly high and is the most important barrier in the short term. A sustained breakout above this level could drive the continuation of the broader bullish trend seen in recent weeks.
$173 – Nearby Barrier: Aligns with the zone marked by the Ichimoku cloud. Price action around this level could generate neutrality and extend the ongoing sideways formation.
$162 – Critical Support: Matches the 100-period moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this support would activate a more relevant bearish bias, opening the door to a short-term downtrend.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Supreme Court ruling could lift gold further Gold has climbed $410 over the past four weeks, reaching ~$3,750 today after an additional ~$60 gain.
The combination of political risk, questions over central bank independence, and robust technical momentum has positioned gold as one of the best performing assets.
The Supreme Court has apparently scheduled arguments for December on the issue of whether President Trump can fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, and install another stooge like Stephen Mirin in her place. Such a precedent could further boost safe-haven demand for gold, as it could pave the way for the dismissal of other governors.
Support levels: Initial support sits at $3,660, followed by the breakout region around $3,515. As long as these levels hold, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
Momentum: Recent candles show strong buying pressure with limited pullbacks, indicating that buyers remain firmly in control.