GBPCHF higher bullish from here expected
OANDA:GBPCHF trend based analysis, in last periods we are have strong bearish trend. First time i am expect changes in period 31.10 - 7.11,
but price is make one more bearish.
In this week we having bullish trend and from here expecting and higher bullish.
SUP zone: 1.05300
RES zone: 1.07000, 1.07550
Trendanalyse
GBP/USD Is Approaching a Key Zone—Don’t Miss This Setup!What are your thoughts on GBP/USD?
Price recently reacted strongly from the upper resistance zone, showing clear loss of momentum after the latest bullish push. The pair is now pulling back, and as long as price remains below this resistance, a short-term bearish correction is the more likely scenario.
If the pullback extends toward the 1.3180–1.3150 demand zone, we could see a potential bullish reversal from that area. However, if price continues to reject the resistance zone, the bearish corrective scenario remains valid toward the marked target below.
Setup
Sell Area: 1.3330 – 1.3350
Target Zone: 1.3180 – 1.3150
Reason:
- Strong rejection at resistance
- Clear loss of momentum
- Clean liquidity below to collect
This matches the grey corrective path shown in the chart.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
EUR/GBP 2HR: Anticipating a Reversal from Fresh B-R Supply Zone📉 EUR/GBP 2H: Anticipating a Reversal from Fresh B-R Supply Zone
📝 Overview & Market Context
The EUR/GBP chart is currently illustrating a strong bullish trend on this intermediate timeframe, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The price has been rising and is now approaching a significant historical level of supply that previously acted as a strong turning point.
The core idea is to identify the origin of the last major bearish drop and wait for the price to retrace into that unmitigated zone for a high-probability short entry, aligning with the concept that supply areas often contain large, pending sell orders from institutional players.
🔑 Key Technical Zones
The analysis highlights three critical price zones based on Supply and Demand principles:
1. B-R Supply (Break-Rally Supply) 🔴
Zone: The large red box spanning approximately 0.87500 to 0.87800.
Significance: This zone represents a fresh, unmitigated supply area—the origin of a prior decisive price drop. The pattern appears to be a Rally-Base-Drop (RBD) or a Break-Rally formation, where buyers absorbed price into a base before sellers took over, causing an aggressive move down.
Trading Thesis: This is the high-probability entry zone for a short position, as institutional sell orders are expected to still reside here. The psychological level of 0.87500 also provides a confluence point for resistance.
2. Demand Entry Origin (D-R-D) 🟢
Zone: The green box around 0.87100 to 0.87200.
Significance: This area acted as a Demand Zone (likely a Drop-Base-Rally or D-R-D base) that launched the current rally. This confirms that the buyers driving the current move are active, but it also provides a potential first Take Profit (T/P) target for the anticipated short trade. A break below this would likely confirm a major bearish reversal.
3. Confirmation/Invalidation Level 🔵
The level marked just below the B-R Supply Zone acts as a confirmation level. A decisive break and close above the entire red supply zone would invalidate the bearish trade setup, indicating that buyers have overwhelmed the institutional supply at this level.
📊 Trade Plan: Shorting the Retracement
Trade Direction: Short (Sell)
Entry Strategy: Wait for price to enter the B-R Supply Zone (0.87500 - 0.87800). Entry should be confirmed by a price action rejection signal, such as an engulfing candle or a pin bar, on a lower timeframe (e.g., 15M or 30M) to minimize risk.
Stop Loss (S/L): Place the Stop Loss just above the distal (furthest) boundary of the B-R Supply Zone (e.g., above 0.87850) to protect against a complete structural break higher.
Take Profit (T/P) 1: The Demand Entry Origin (D-R-D) at 0.87150, offering a quick risk/reward opportunity.
Take Profit (T/P) 2: A lower structural low, targeting areas around 0.86800 if the move proves to be a full trend reversal.
🌐 Fundamental Note
The EUR/GBP pair is primarily influenced by the monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), alongside UK-EU economic ties. Divergence in interest rate expectations or unexpected economic data releases (like UK GDP or Eurozone Industrial Production) could accelerate or invalidate this purely technical setup.
This technical analysis provides a framework for entry; however, confirmation from price action and awareness of fundamental releases are crucial for risk management.
To understand how to correctly identify and use Supply and Demand zones for higher probability trades, you may want to watch this video on How to Master and Trade Supply and Demand.
BNB/USDT ANALYSIS - 4H interval🔶 1. Current Trend and Market Structure
The chart shows:
A clear short-term uptrend – the price is respecting the ascending yellow trend line.
An increase after a bounce from the SMA 50 (green).
However, there are still no new higher highs – the market is consolidating between 888–910.
➡️ Short-term trend: up
➡️ Medium-term trend: neutral/consolidation
🟩 2. Key Support/Resistance Levels
Resistance:
910–912 USDT – currently a key resistance, tested multiple times.
930–935 USDT – local higher resistance (green zone on your chart).
957–960 USDT – stronger resistance from D1 (blue SMA95 visible in the screenshot).
Supports:
USDT 889–893 – local support and the current battleground.
USDT 871 – SMA 50 + previous swing low.
USDT 849 – powerful support from the HTF.
USDT 837 – the final “lifeline” of the bullish structure.
📈 3. Indicators (MACD, RSI)
MACD
MACD > 0 – positive.
The MACD line is starting to point upwards → a signal of bullish momentum.
No divergence.
➡️ MACD supports the bullish scenario.
RSI
RSI ~59 – a healthy zone, far from overbought.
RSI breaks the local downtrend → increasing buyer strength.
➡️ RSI confirms the bullish trend.
🟧 4. Key Price Action Now
The price is currently approaching resistance at 910–912 USDT and simultaneously touching the local trend line.
This is the market's decision point.
A breakout → opens the way to 930–935.
A rejection → a return to 889, and below 871.
ETH/USD 1D chart review1️⃣ Trend and general context
• ETH is trading after a sharp decline from its local high of ~4,000+.
• The price rebounded from a quite strong support zone around ~2,750–2,800.
• Current price: ~USD 3,034 → the market is testing the first local resistance.
Short-term trend: down, but a rebound and the first signs of reversal are visible.
Long-term trend: still upwards (HL/HH on large intervals).
⸻
2️⃣ Key Levels (from your chart)
🟩 Resistances
• USD 3,475 – key resistance + SMA (blue)
👉 if ETH breaks this level and closes 1D above → strong bullish signal.
• USD 4,061 – major resistance from previous highs.
🟥 Support
• USD 2,757 – the nearest strong support after breaking the trendline.
• USD 2,126 – very key macro support (bottom of consolidation).
⸻
3️⃣ Medium SMA
From your chart:
• Red SMA #1 – price is just above it → first positive signal.
• Blue SMA #5 – Acts as resistance and is currently being tested from below.
• Green SMA #2 – higher, acts as resistance at ~USD 3.475.
➡ The price must return above the blue and green SMA to confirm the return of the upward trend.
⸻
4️⃣ MACD
• The MACD at the bottom of the chart begins to curl upwards.
• The histogram decreases towards zero → the downward momentum weakens.
• Bullish cross is still missing, but it's getting closer.
Conclusion: Early signal of trend reversal, but not confirmed.
⸻
5️⃣ RSI
• RSI is in the zone around 40 → quite low, but not extremely.
• Slight divergence: the price made a lower low, the RSI made a higher one.
👉 This is a bullish signal, but only in combination with a resistance breakout.
⸻
6️⃣ Price Action
You can see:
• A long rising candle after a bounce from below.
• We are approaching the first important resistance at ~3.100–3.150.
To confirm continuation, you need:
✔ Closing of the 1D candle above ~3.150–3.200.
⸻
🎯 What might happen next?
Bull scenario (more likely if BTC also increases)
1. Breakout 3,150–3,200 → retest → move to:
• USD 3,475 (major resistance + SMA)
• then 3,800+
2. MACD makes a bullish cross → momentum is growing.
Probability: ~60%, but confirmation only after the breakout.
⸻
The Bears Scenario
1. Rejection from SMA (blue) and return below 3,000
2. Down to 2,750-2,800 again
3. If this breaks → move towards $2.126
Probability: ~40% at this point.
USDJPY Just Broke Out — Early Trend Reversal or Fake Strength?1. Market Structure – Dow Theory Perspective
On the H1 chart:
- Price has consistently printed Lower Highs – Lower Lows, forming a descending channel.
- The most recent move shows:
+ A higher low (HL) forming at the bottom of the channel
+ A clear break of structure (BOS) at the upper trendline
This signals a transition phase, where sellers are losing momentum and buyers are starting to dominate.
According to Dow Theory:
➡ A trend changes when the market forms a higher high followed by a higher low.
USDJPY is currently in that exact phase.
2. Breakout Confirmation
The breakout from the channel is valid because:
✔ The candle closed above the trendline
✔ Volume increased slightly on breakout
✔ Price retested the broken structure (blue arrow) and bounced cleanly
This adds strong confirmation that the breakout is not a fakeout.
3. Key Zones to Watch
🔹 Support Zone
Located around the lower channel and green zone — this is the origin of the bullish rejection. As long as USDJPY holds above this zone, the bullish scenario remains intact.
🔹 Strong Resistance Zone
Marked at the top of the chart — multiple liquidity pools exist here. TP2 and TP3 align with these resistance levels.
4. Bullish Scenario – Primary Outlook
After the breakout, the market is expected to follow a classic break → retest → continuation pattern:
🎯 TP1: 156.832
First liquidity target — where the first wave of profit-taking is likely.
🎯 TP2: 156.984
A stronger resistance level — aligns with prior price congestion.
🎯 TP3: 157.200+
Located at the strong resistance zone.
If buyers maintain momentum, this is the final upside extension.
This aligns perfectly with bullish structure + breakout momentum.
5. Technical Summary
-Breakout from descending channel ✔
- Higher low formation → early trend reversal ✔
- Retest confirmation ✔
- Clear upside liquidity targets ✔
Everything aligns with a bullish continuation scenario for USDJPY.
🔥 Conclusion
USDJPY has broken out of its descending channel, signaling a potential short-term bullish reversal. As long as price holds above the retest area, the market favors an upward move toward TP1 → TP2 → TP3.
This is a clean structure-based opportunity for trend traders and breakout traders alike.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): Hyper-Extended Momentum – Breakout or Exhaust
Category: Trend Analysis / Support & Resistance
Ticker: NQ1! (CME)
Analysis:
We are looking at the Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ1!) on the 1H timeframe using the Dynamic Support & Resistance (DSRTL) system. The market is currently displaying a textbook example of a high-momentum breakout that has pushed into statistical extremes.
Here is the breakdown of the current technical landscape based on the indicator's Matrix Logic:
1. The "Hyper Extension" State (S1 / D1)
The indicator’s dashboard has triggered a "HYPER EXTENSION" alert. This specific state occurs when two conditions are met simultaneously:
• Static Breakout (S1): Price has cleared the horizontal resistance structures (indicated by the volume clusters).
• Dynamic Overextension (D1): Price has pierced above the upper limit of the dynamic trend channel (the purple trendlines).
2. Bias: Extreme Bullish
The current bias is rated as "Extreme Bullish". The trend is undeniably strong, confirmed by the positive Volume Delta (+965) shown on the dashboard. The price action is aggressive, creating a steep angle of ascent that has moved away from the mean.
3. The Warning Signal: Exhaustion Risk
While the trend is up, the system issues a cautionary note: "Exhaustion Risk. Trail stops."
In technical terms, when price action moves into "D1" (Dynamic Overextension), it indicates that the asset is trading significantly above its standard deviation or channel geometry. Historically, markets often seek mean reversion or consolidation after such rapid expansions to sustain the trend.
Key Levels to Watch:
• Dynamic Support (Immediate): The top of the purple channel (approx. 25,220) acts as the first layer of defense. A retest of this level is common after a breakout.
• Static Support (Structural): The breakdown level of the previous resistance, now turning into support around the 24.95K region.
Scenario Conclusion:
This is a pure momentum play. Traders should be aware that while the path of least resistance is up, the probability of a "snap-back" or consolidation increases the further price stretches above the dynamic channel. This is not a signal to short the trend immediately, but rather a signal to manage risk tightly on existing long positions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and explains the logic of the DSRTL technical indicator. It does not constitute financial advice.
Gold Analysis (XAU/USD): End-of-November Technical Signals1. Market Overview
Gold opened today’s session in a tight consolidation range while still maintaining its short-term bullish structure on the H1 timeframe. Buying pressure remains stable, but demand is not yet strong enough to break through the 4150 resistance zone, which is the confluence of the higher-timeframe descending trendline and the H1 supply area.
2. Current Technical Data
The H1 structure remains in a short-term uptrend, with a clear Higher Low formed.
Key Buy Zone (H1): 4110 continues to play the role of a major demand zone.
Strong resistance sits around 415x, aligned with the descending trendline from the higher timeframe.
Bullish momentum is still present, but each retest of the trendline shows strong reaction → indicating sellers have not fully stepped aside.
Bollinger Bands and EMAs are tightening, signaling an incoming volatility breakout.
Overall, the market appears to be building energy for a significant move, with clear positioning between buyers and sellers.
3. Price Action Scenarios
• Breakout Scenario above 4160
If price breaks above 4160 with a clean H1 candle close, it would confirm buyer dominance. This type of breakout would be considered genuine and may validate a continuation toward the 4180 region.
• Pullback Scenario toward Key Buy 4110
If gold rejects the 4160 zone and retraces, price may draw liquidity downward toward 4110–4120 before accumulating for another push upward.
This area aligns well with SMC principles, as it previously produced a strong bullish footprint.
4. Trading Strategy
(Educational technical outlook only — not financial advice)
✔ BUY-STOP 4160
Break and H1 candle close above 4160 → confirms active bullish order flow.
Trigger: 4160
Invalidation: 4150
Target: 4180
✔ BUY at Key Demand Zone 4110
A liquidity-driven pullback into 4110–4120 offers a clean accumulation area.
Entry: 4110
Invalidation: 4098–4102
Targets: 4140 → 4160
✔ BUY from 4088–4090 (if deeper sweep occurs)
Final defensive demand zone where buyers may step back in.
Invalidation: 4078
Targets: 4120 → 4140
5. Conclusion
Gold is preparing for a potential breakout after an extended accumulation phase. The 4160 level acts as the “gateway” that may determine the direction of the entire session.
- Today’s scenarios can be summarized as:
Break above 4160 → potential move toward 4180
Liquidity sweep toward 4110 → potential rebound toward 4150
Rejection at 4160 → possible drop toward 4135 and 4110
Among these, the 4160 breakout confirmation remains the clearest and most structured option from a technical perspective. A confirmed break above 4160 could propel price quickly toward the 4180 region.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Will LINK recover after the information about the ETF?📌 1. Main trend
• A clear downward trend, confirmed by a strong, long-term downward trend line (black).
• The price is testing this line from below for the first time in a long time → a key moment.
If the price breaks it and retests, the trend structure changes.
⸻
📌 2. Current situation
Price currently: ~13.02 USDT
Upcoming levels:
Support
• 12.71 – local support (yellow line).
• 11.75 – strong support, here a demand reaction appeared.
• 9.95 – the greatest support on the chart (red line).
Resistances
• 1:30 p.m.–1:50 p.m. – trend line test; key resistance.
• 15.25 – the first significant resistance in the upward trend.
• 17.78
• 19.77
• 21.70
⸻
📌 3. Stoch RSI (at the bottom of the chart)
• The oscillator is high, approaching the overheating zone (80+).
• This signals a possible short-term correction, unless the downtrend breaks out - then it may stay high for a long time.
⸻
📌 4. Key setup
🔵 Bullish (upward scenario)
Confirmation of growth appears only if:
✔ The price will break the black downtrend line
✔ Will close the 12H candle above approximately 1:50 p.m
✔ Will retest and bounce up
Targets after breakout:
1. 15.25
2. 17.78
3. 19.77 - only here it will encounter stronger resistance
⸻
🔴 Bearish (downside scenario)
If the price does not break the trendline and is rejected ↓:
❗ Downside targets:
• 12.71 (local support – first test)
• If it breaks → 11.75
• And in case of market panic → 9.95
The latter is a powerful level - the level of accumulation from earlier months.
⸻
📌 5. What looks best?
Currently:
• The market rebounded from the support at 11.75 – healthy demand response.
• However, the price is below a strong trendline, so this is a place where it may be rejected.
➡ If I were to indicate the most likely short move:
Light correction → retest 12.71 → decision.
⸻
📌 6. Summary
• A key moment for LINK - it decides to break the downward trend.
• Only a close above 1:50 p.m. gives a real upward signal.
• Failure to break the trendline = possible return to 12.71 → 11.75.
BTC/USDT 4H Chart Review1. Local trend
The chart shows:
✔️ Clear upward trend - the price respects the rising trend line (black diagonal).
✔️ The last candle broke strongly upwards, which suggests bullish momentum.
⸻
🟢 Key resistance levels (green lines)
1. 90,352 USDT - the first stronger resistance (it looks like the price is just reaching it).
2. 93,271 USDT - another strong resistance; there may be a clearer sell-off here.
➡️ If it breaks 90,352 with high volume, the path to ~93k is open.
⸻
🔴 Key support levels (red lines)
1. 86,890 USDT - Local Support/Trendline Retest.
2. 84,989 USDT - Stronger support.
3. 82,545 USDT - key support for the growth structure.
➡️ Loss of 86,890 + breakout from the trendline may mean a correction to around 85,000.
⸻
📉 RSI / Stochastic (bottom of the chart)
Stochastic RSI is:
✔️ In the growth phase
✔️ Approaching overheating level (80-100)
➡️ This often means that the upside momentum continues, but a local correction may be imminent, especially at the 90,352 resistance.
⸻
📌 Summary
🔼 Bullish Signals:
• Uptrend intact
• Breakout with an upward impulse candle
• The price is rebounding from the trend line
🔽 Bearish Signals:
• Stochastic RSI is approaching the “high” zone
• The price is under important resistance at 90,352
• Local pullback possible if resistance is not broken
⸻
⭐ Short-term scenarios (4H)
👉 Bullish scenario
• Maintaining price above 88,800-89,000
• Breakout 90,352
➡️ Target: 93,000 – 93,300 USDT
👉 Bears scenario
• Rejection from 90,352
• Back below 88,900
➡️ Downside target: 86,900 → 85,000 USDT
BTC/USDT 1W chart review📉 1. Market structure – trend and break
• The chart shows a black upward trend line that has led the market since 2023.
• This line has been clearly broken, which means:
✔ weakening of the structure
✔ the first serious threat to the upward trend
✔ possible move towards lower support levels
A breakout of the weekly trendline usually ends a medium-term upward trend.
⸻
📉 2. Current price
BTC is around USDT 87,770 and the weekly candle is heavily bearish.
This means that buyers do not react to the first support.
⸻
🟥 3. Most important support levels
1) 92,086 USDT – local resistance zone (previously support)
• Price has broken this support from above → now acts as resistance.
• To return to growth, BTC would have to close the week above this zone.
2) 84,583 USDT – first major support
• Price is just above the zone.
• If this fails → there will be an increased chance of continued declines.
3) 74,324 USDT – key macro support (MAIN LEVEL)
This is the most important level of the chart.
• This is the level where demand must occur if BTC is to maintain its long-term structure.
• Breaking this barrier will open the way to declines even to around 60-65k.
⸻
🟩 4. Resistance levels
1) USDT 92,086
Closest resistance – key to recovery.
2) USDT 100,794
Big weekly resistance that stopped the market earlier.
Only a breakout → continuation of the bull market.
⸻
📊 5. Stochastic (week) – very important
At the bottom you can see Stochastic sliding down, almost at the value of 0-20 (oversold).
Interpretation:
• There is no buy signal yet because the lines have not turned upwards.
• Weekly momentum is still down, so the pressure on support continues.
📈 7. Scenarios
Bullish (less likely for now)
1. Maintaining 84.5k
2. Stochastic weekly turns upwards
3. Price returns above 92k
➡️ Target: 100.7k
Bearish (more likely)
1. Breakthrough 84.5k
2. Retest from the bottom
3. Drop to 74.3k
➡️ If 74k breaks → 65-68k
LINK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — 1D📊
1. MARKET STRUCTURE
Long-term trend
The price is currently approaching this line, but has not yet tested it directly.
This is a key support level for the entire LINK market.
2. SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE
Demand Zone — $9.6 – $4.8
The large red area. This is
a historical accumulation zone,
an area where LINK has been repeatedly defended,
an area to which the price has returned with each major dump.
Supply Zone — $15 – $20
The green area from which:
the price has been rejected repeatedly,
this is the selling wall from 2021,
a key target for bulls after the rebound.
3. CRITICAL LEVELS
Very important support
Type Level Description
Trendline ~11.5–12.2 USD We are very close to a test.
Horizontal 9.63 USD First major historical support.
Horizontal 4.84 USD Final low (strongest demand).
If the trendline breaks, the → ** LINK will almost certainly fall to 9.63**, and if that breaks too, → 4.8 USD is very likely.
4. MOMENTUM – STOCH RSI
On the Stoch RSI chart:
is extremely oversold,
similar to previous lows (2023, 2024),
signaling the possibility of a rebound within a few days/weeks.
5. PRICE SCENARIOS
🟢 BULLISH (bounce)
Condition: Maintaining the trendline
Expected movements:
Bounce around 11.5–12.5
Target 1: USD 15
Target 2: USD 18–20
Possible breakout → USD 22–24
This scenario is realistic if Bitcoin doesn't make another strong dump.
🔴 BEARISH (falling)
Condition: Breakout of the trendline with a daily candle below ~11.5
Expected movements:
A quick drop to USD 9.63
This could result in:
a bounce to ~12
or a continuation of the decline
If 9.63 falls → a practically certain target of USD 4.8
This level represents a significant historical accumulation and will not fall without a fight.
➤ Price is currently hanging by a thread.
The trendline is one of the most important support levels on the LINK chart.
Momentum is oversold → signal for a short squeeze/bounce.
But the local structure remains bearish.
➤ If the trendline holds → a thick long swing.
➤ If it collapses → we fall to 9.63 and possibly 4.8.
ETH/USDT 1W review1. Broken uptrend
The black upward trend line has been clearly broken down.
➡️ This is a signal of a change in the market structure from uptrend → downtrend.
⸻
2. The current candle is under the important support of USD 3,070
You marked the ~3070 level as previous support.
Now the price is clearly below it, which suggests:
• breaking support,
• a retest from below may occur,
• continuation of declines is likely.
⸻
3. Another important support on the chart
I see strong levels:
🔴 #1 Support: $2,830 - $2,900 (current price)
This is the zone where the price is trying to hold – but it looks like there is a weak reaction.
🔴 Backer #2: $2,147
This is a wide zone where the upward impulse previously began.
➡️ If ETH drops below 2800-2830, the next logical target is 2150-2200.
⸻
4. RSI (1W) shows a downward trend
• RSI is around 40, which is close to the oversold zone.
• The RSI trend has been down for months.
• No bullish divergence (no trend reversal signal).
➡️ This supports the narrative of further declines.
⸻
5. Candle structure - clear downward momentum
Some previous candles:
• large red bodies,
• no aggressive buying,
• reflections are weak,
• The weekly candle currently looks bearish.
⸻
📊 Technical Summary
Based on the chart:
Short-term and medium-term trends: downward
The price broke key supports
Most likely scenario:
➡️ Continued declines to USD 2,150-2,200
if the 2830 level is broken and the weekly candle closes below.
⸻
📈 When would things look like they would turn around?
Only if:
✔️ Price will return above 3070
✔️ And will maintain a weekly close above this level
✔️ RSI will bounce up and divergence will appear
Then we can talk about a greater chance of returning to 3,500 and beyond.
MARICO Under Pressure — Sharp Fall on the Charts!This is the daily timeframe chart of MARICO.
MARICO is trading within a well-defined parallel channel and is currently falling from the upper resistance zone. This sharp decline may pause near the channel support.
The stock continues to respect the structure, with a key support zone around 700–710 and resistance in the 775–785 region.
If the current weakness extends, we may see a further drop toward the support area, followed by a potential bounce from those levels.
Thank you!!
Mastering RSI: A Complete Guide to Momentum🔵 Mastering RSI: A Complete Guide to Momentum, Regimes, Reversals & Professional Signals
Difficulty: 🐳🐳🐳🐳🐋 (Advanced)
This article goes far beyond the basic idea of “RSI = overbought/oversold.” If you want to truly master RSI as a momentum gauge, trend filter, reversal tool, and structure confirmation model, this guide is for you.
🔵 WHY MOST TRADERS MISUSE RSI
Most traders use RSI in the simplest way:
RSI above 70 = sell
RSI below 30 = buy
This leads to shorting strong trends and catching falling knives.
RSI is not a reversal button. RSI is a momentum translator.
To master RSI, you must understand:
Trend regimes
Momentum pressure
Acceleration and deceleration
Failure swings
Divergences
Trend vs range behavior
Multi-timeframe alignment
Structure confirmation
RSI shows the strength behind price, not just extremes.
🔵 1. RSI TREND REGIMES (CORE FOUNDATION)
RSI moves in predictable zones depending on the type of market environment.
Bullish RSI Regime
RSI holds between 40 and 80
Pullbacks bottom around 40–50
Breaks above 60 show trend acceleration
Bearish RSI Regime
RSI holds between 20 and 60
Pullback tops form around 50–60
Breaks below 40 confirm bearish dominance
These regimes tell you who controls the market before you even look at candles.
🔵 2. MOMENTUM PRESSURE (RSI AS A SPEEDOMETER)
RSI measures the speed and pressure of price movement.
Rising RSI with rising price = trend acceleration
Falling RSI with rising price = momentum weakening
Rising RSI with falling price = early strength
Falling RSI with falling price = continuation pressure
This is not divergence. It is momentum pressure, the earliest sign of trend shift.
🔵 3. FAILURE SWINGS (THE MOST RELIABLE RSI REVERSAL SIGNAL)
Failure swings are powerful because they show internal momentum breaking before price reacts.
Bullish Failure Swing
RSI makes a low
RSI rallies
RSI dips again but stays above previous low
RSI breaks the previous high
Bearish Failure Swing
RSI makes a high
RSI pulls back
RSI rallies but fails to break the previous high
RSI breaks the previous low
Failure swings often appear at trend tops and bottoms before candles reveal anything.
🔵 4. DIVERGENCES (REGULAR AND HIDDEN)
Regular Divergence: Reversal Clue
Bullish: price lower low, RSI higher low
Bearish: price higher high, RSI lower high
Hidden Divergence: Trend Continuation
Bullish hidden: price higher low, RSI lower low
Bearish hidden: price lower high, RSI higher high
Hidden divergence is more powerful than regular because it confirms trend continuation.
🔵 5. RANGE RSI VS TREND RSI
RSI behaves very differently in ranges versus trends.
Range Environment
RSI oscillates between 30 and 70
Reversals at extremes have high accuracy
RSI 50 is the equilibrium
Trend Environment
RSI stays above 50 in bullish trends
RSI stays below 50 in bearish trends
30 and 70 extremes lose meaning
Always identify environment first. RSI signals change depending on regime.
🔵 6. RSI AS A STRUCTURE FILTER
RSI combined with structure improves trade selection dramatically.
Price makes higher highs + RSI rising = healthy trend
Price makes higher highs + RSI flat = weak breakout
Price makes higher highs + RSI dropping = exhaustion
Support retest + RSI 40–50 = strong continuation potential
Most false breakouts are avoided simply by checking RSI pressure.
🔵 7. MULTI-TIMEFRAME RSI ALIGNMENT
Use higher timeframe RSI to validate lower timeframe setups.
HTF RSI bullish + LTF RSI pullback = high-quality entry
HTF RSI bearish + LTF RSI bounce = premium short area
HTF RSI crossing 50 = long-term regime shift
This is one of the most powerful RSI confluences.
🔵 EXAMPLE TRADING FRAMEWORK
Bullish Setup Checklist
RSI in bullish regime (above 50)
Pullback into 40–50 zone
Hidden bullish divergence or failure swing
Structure forms a higher low
Bearish Setup Checklist
RSI in bearish regime
Rejection from 50–60 zone
Hidden bearish divergence or failure swing
Structure forms a lower high
🔵 COMMON RSI MISTAKES
Trading RSI extremes without trend context
Ignoring RSI regimes
Entering on regular divergences in strong trends
Not using RSI midline (50) as a regime filter
Relying only on overbought/oversold signals
🔵 CONCLUSION
RSI is one of the most powerful indicators when used correctly. It provides a complete framework for:
Reading trend strength
Tracking momentum pressure
Identifying early reversals
Trading continuation setups
Filtering breakout strength
Aligning multi-timeframe bias
Master RSI, and you gain a clearer view of momentum than most traders ever experience.
How do you use RSI? Do you prefer divergences, trend zones, or failure swings? Share your approach below!
BTC/USDT 1H Short-Term (maintaining support)📉 MARKET STRUCTURE
1. Trend
The chart shows a clear falling wedge, which statistically is a pro-growth pattern—breakouts most often occur upwards.
Upper wedge line: ~96,400 USDT
Lower wedge line: ~93,750 USDT
The price has just rebounded from the lower edge—this is a key demand level.
📊 SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
Support (demand):
93,750 – lower wedge line
93,300 – strong chart level
92,650 – lower support, strong volume reaction
Resistance (supply):
95,000 – 95,450 – local resistance (supply often returns here)
96,400 – resistance key + upper wedge line
📈 INDICATORS
Stoch RSI (1h)
We have rebounded from the oversold level.
The %K line is breaking the %D line upwards → a signal of a potential short-term rebound.
MACD
The histogram is decreasing, but the first signs of flattening are visible.
The MACD line is still below the signal line, but is approaching → momentum for a reversal is beginning.
Volume
Volume increased on bearish candles, but near the bottom, two demand candles with increased volume appeared → buyers reacted at support.
📌 CONCLUSIONS
✔️ Bullish short-term scenario (more likely at this point):
Bounce from 93,750 + rising indicators = local upward correction.
Targets:
94,800 – 95,000
95,450
96,400 (upper band of the wedge — an important decision point)
❌ Bearish scenario (if support breaks):
A drop below 93,750 on strong volume opens the door to:
93,300
92,650 (a large defensive level — aggressive demand could enter here)
BTC 1W Chart !🔥 1. GENERAL TREND (1W)
The long-term trend is still upwards because:
• the price stays in the orange channel,
• the black trend line (key) has not been broken.
But at the same time:
➡️ We see correction after local ATH around 115-120k.
This is a typical cyclical decline after breaking out from the extremes.
⸻
🔥 2. KEY LEVELS OF YOUR CHART
Closest support (S)
1. 94 315 → current retest
2. 85,895 → key trend support
3. 74,896 → the most important defensive level against mega relegation
Nearest resistances (R)
1. 105,901 – the first serious resistance
2. 114 437 – strong ceiling
3. 125,907 – potential target for a new growth impulse
⸻
🔥 3. STOCHASTIC SITUATION (1W)
Stoch is deeply oversold → a signal of a potential rebound.
On a weekly basis, such signals usually mean:
• local minimum,
• beginning of a new growth wave in the 4-8 week window.
⸻
🔥 4. MARKET STRUCTURE (PRICE ACTION)
The current candles suggest:
• a strong defense attempt on 94k,
• getting closer to the black trend line,
• there is still room to move higher in the orange channel.
This looks like:
➡️ a correction in the upward trend, not a change in the trend.
⸻
🔥 5. SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT WEEKS
🟢 Growth scenario (more likely)
Condition: maintaining 94k or black trendline
Targets:
• 105,900 – first target
• 114,400 – medium target
• 125 900 – full swing to the upper edge of the channel
Probability: 60-70%
(because Stoch is sold out + entry to support the channel)
⸻
🔴 Downside scenario (less realistic)
Condition: weekly close below the black trendline
Only then do we fly:
1. 85,900
2. 74,900 – an absolute must-hold
A break of 74,900 would mean:
➡️ end of the growth channel
➡️ entering a long-term bear market
Probability: 30-40%
⸻
🔥 6. Summary in points
Current situation
• BTC is sitting right on support.
• Weekly Stochastic = buy signal.
• Growth channel still intact.
• The market looks like it's getting ready to rebound.
If 94k stays → we go to 105k+, then 114k.
If he hits the black line → 85k and 74k in the game.
BTC/USD 4H chart 🧭 1️⃣ Market structure
• We see a clear upward channel (black trend lines) - the price has been moving within it for several days/weeks.
• Current price: ~USD 101,630, which is just above the lower border of the channel (dynamic support).
• Latest high: ~$107,360 - this is local resistance.
• Final low: ~$99,000 - this is key psychological and technical support.
➡️ Medium-term trend: still upwards, but currently in a downward correction wave 📉 3️⃣ Technical indicators
🔸 Stochastic RSI (bottom panel)
• Both components (blue and orange lines) are close to the oversold zone (<20).
• This is a signal that sellers may be losing momentum, and a rebound from the lower support is possible in the coming hours.
⸻
⚖️ 4️⃣ Short-term scenarios (4H – 1D)
🟢 Bull scenario (probability around 60%)
• The rate remains above USD 101,400 (lower border of the channel).
• Stochastic RSI begins to rebound → buy signal.
• Potential move up to:
• USD 103,900 (first target)
• USD 105,900 (second target)
• USD 107,300 (main resistance)
➡️ Scenario invalidation: 4H candle close below USD 101,000.
⸻
🔴 Bear scenario (probability approx. 40%)
• Breakout of the USD 101,000 level with a 4H close below.
• Decline to $99,000-99,200 zone (major support).
• If this support breaks, next goals:
• $97,800
• $95,000
⸻
📊 5️⃣ Technical signal (4H)
➡️ Decision Zone: $101,000-$101,800
➡️ Technical signal: possible short-term rebound (RSI oversold, close to channel support).
➡️ Confirmation: 4H candle closing above USD 102,000 with volume - then a chance of a move to USD 104-106k.
Long - XAUUSD Hit TP on early MondayAnother week opened, XAUUSD long position hit TP as expected. I took a buy following a strong rejection at support zine. Price closed the week with 4000 after a strong bullish candle/rejected wick, confirming a short term bullish bias and surge with a sharp move earlier this morning.
Bitcoin Macro Structure – Next Cycle Projection to $180K (Fract)This chart proposes a new Bitcoin macrostructure model, suggesting that the current cycle will not follow the traditional 4-year halving rhythm.
Instead, the geometry of the chart and the expanding time structure point toward a 6-7 year supercycle — a longer accumulation and expansion phase that may redefine Bitcoin’s historical rhythm.
The price action continues to respect the long-term ascending trendline since 2017, forming broader impulses and corrections with each cycle.
Targets remain at $130K, $150K, and up to $180K, where the top of this extended structure might complete.
After that, a multi-year correction could bring BTC back to the $70K–$80K range before the next long accumulation.
This projection suggests that Bitcoin’s volatility and growth waves are stretching over time, creating a slower but larger-scale cycle compared to the previous ones.
It’s a macro perspective, not financial advice — intended to illustrate how Bitcoin might evolve as the market matures.
LTC/USDT 1D🕵️♂️ The overall picture
• Price: 102.50 USDT
• Trend: The current downtrend is down (black downtrend line), but we are currently breaking above the trendline, which may signal a change in direction.
• Interval: Daily (1D)
⸻
📊 Key technical levels
• Resistance 1: 106.99 USDT
• Resistance 2: 119.25 USDT
• Support 1: 95.61 USDT
• Support 2: 89.65 USDT
• Support 3: 79.90 USDT
The current candle has broken above the downtrend line and the level of 95.6 USDT, which is a bullish signal.
⸻
🔥 Volume
• You can see a big increase in volume during today's bullish candle - this confirms that the buyers are in control.
• This is a classic example of a confirmed breakout from a downtrend.
⸻
📈 Candles
• Today's candle is a strong demand candle (green) with a large body.
• If today's close stays above the trend line (~100 USDT), it will be a technical confirmation of the breakout.
⸻
⚙️ Stochastic RSI indicator
• The blue line (RSI) is rebounding from the oversold area (<20) and heading upwards - this is a buy signal.
• The orange line begins to turn in the same direction, which may indicate the beginning of an upward impulse.
⸻
💡 Scenarios:
🟢 Growth scenario (more likely):
• Maintaining the price above 100 USDT = breakout confirmed.
• Potential targets:
• 106.99 USDT – first test of resistance, possible short pullback.
• 119.25 USDT – main target in the medium term (approx. +16%).
🔴 Downside scenario (if the breakout turns out to be false):
• Return below 95.6 USDT and closing of the daily candle there = false breakout signal.
• Then a possible decline to 89.65 USDT, and with further weakness even 79.90 USDT.
BTC/USDT 1H Chart Short-Term📉 Descending Channel (black lines)
The price previously moved within a clear descending channel, which was broken upward.
A breakout from the channel signals a change in the short-term trend – from supply pressure to an attempted rebound.
From a technical perspective, a breakout from a descending channel often leads to an upward correction, the extent of which is at least the midpoint of the previous downward impulse.
🔷 Triangle Formation (blue lines)
After breaking out of the channel, the price formed a symmetrical triangle (consolidation) – a sign of market indecision.
Triangles of this type are often trend continuation patterns, but in this context – after a breakout from a descending channel – an upward breakout (i.e., a further upward rebound) is more likely.
The key resistance level to watch is $111,145 – a breakout with volume confirmation would open the way to $112,320 and then $113,921.
🧭 Key Technical Levels
Resistance:
$111,145 – local resistance (upper boundary of the consolidation/triangle).
$112,320 – another strong resistance level from the previous local high.
$113,921 – major medium-term resistance.
Support:
$110,442 – lower boundary of the triangle (short-term support).
$108,793 – support after the recent bounce.
$107,285 – next demand level.
$104,969 – bulls' defensive boundary in the broader context.
📊 Stoch RSI (bottom of the chart)
The Stoch RSI oscillator is currently in a rebound phase from the neutral level (~40–60).
If the lines (blue and orange) cross upwards and enter the zone above 80, this could confirm bullish momentum and a breakout from the triangle to the upside.
However, a rejection from 60 and a further drop below 20 would signal a false breakout and a possible retest of USD 108,800.
🔎 Scenario Summary
➡️ Upside Scenario (more likely):
Breakout from the triangle to the upside (confirmed by a 1-hour candle above USD 111,150).
Potential move to USD 112,300 → USD 113,900.
Momentum indicators support a rebound if the Stoch RSI maintains its upward trend.
⬇️ Downside scenario (alternative):
Unsuccessful breakout and return below $110,400.
A correction to $108,800 can then be expected, and if this level is broken, a further decline to $107,300.
ETH Tests Support – Is This the Beginning of a Rebound?📉 Market Structure
We see a descending channel, bounded by two black trend lines.
Upper Boundary: ~$4,700
Lower Boundary: currently around $3,700, representing strong dynamic support.
The price is currently hovering slightly above the lower edge of the channel, suggesting a possible rebound, but the market remains in a medium-term downtrend.
🔍 Support and Resistance Levels
Support:
$3,770 → currently being tested, crucial in the short term.
$3,643 → next strong support from previous lows.
$3,453 → last line of defense against a steeper decline.
Resistance:
$3,889 → closest resistance, current local ceiling.
$4,041 → strong resistance resulting from prior consolidation.
USD 4.265 → a line that, if broken, could signal a change in the medium-term trend.
📊 Technical Indicators
Stochastic RSI
Located near the oversold zone (below 20), with a slight upward curve.
🔹 Signal: Potential upside move (bounce) in the short term if the %K and %D lines cross upward.
MACD
The MACD line is slightly below zero, but is starting to curve upward and may soon cross the signal line.
🔹 The histogram is starting to decline on the negative side – this is often an early bullish signal (possible change in momentum).
⚖️ Scenarios
🔹 Bullish
If ETH holds above USD 3,770 and the Stoch RSI confirms the rebound, a possible move towards:
3,889 → USD 4,041 → USD 4,265.
A break above USD 4,265 could open the way to USD 4,500+ (upper band of the channel).
🔻 Bearish
Loss of support at USD 3,770 → a signal of weakness.
Then the next downside targets:
USD 3,643, then USD 3,453.
If USD 3,453 breaks, possible tests of the lower band of the channel – even around USD 3,300.
🧭 Summary
Main trend: downward (descending channel).
Short-term bias: neutral-bullish (potential for a rebound from support).
Key level to watch: USD 3,770 – maintaining this level could trigger a rebound, loss = risk of a steeper decline.






















