Trend Analysis
Bitcoin: from Pet Rock to Loan CollateralCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures (  CME:MBT1! ) and Micro Ether Futures (  CME:MET1! )
Last week, JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged that crypto, blockchain, and stablecoins are "real”, and “we’ll all use them". This marks a notable shift in tone from the longtime Bitcoin critic.
I can’t help but recall the most notable quotes over the years:
•	“Cryptos are decentralized Ponzi scheme”. 
•	Bitcoin is “fraud” and "worse than tulip bulbs".
•	“I’d fire in a second any employee trading Bitcoin”.
•	"Bitcoin itself is a hyped-up fraud, it's a pet rock".
Why the big change of heart? It has a lot to do with the sweeping changes in the regulatory landscape. The biggest US bank has to adapt and meet new customer demands.
•	On January 10, 2024, the SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs for the first time.
•	On May 24, 2024, Ethereum ETFs were also approved by the SEC.
•	On November 4, 2024, Donald Trump won the US presidential election.
•	On January 21, 2025, the SEC, under a new Chairman, created a Crypto Task Force.
•	In May 2025, JPMorgan announced that it would accept shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as loan collateral from its clients.
•	On July 18, 2025, US Congress passed the “GENIUS Act”, setting up new regulatory framework for the issuance and use of stablecoins.
•	On August 7, 2025, an Executive Order calls for the Department of Labor to re-examine its guidance on alternative assets like cryptocurrencies in 401(k) plans.
•	Last week, JPMorgan announced that it would accept Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for institutional loans by the end of 2025.
The latest two events could have profound impact.  Two butterflies have flapped their wings in Washington, D.C. and at Wall Street. These actions, in my opinion, will unleash the biggest tornado to sweep up the entire crypto world.  So far, the market has not put much thought around it. Bitcoin lost 7% since August. 
In my trade idea published on August 12th, I discussed how the crypto market would benefit from the new pool of capital infusion from the $8.7 trillion 401(k) plans. 
  
 What is Securities-based Lending? 
Securities-based lending, also known as portfolio lending, enables borrowing against the value of their marketable securities without having to liquidate them. It is primarily offered to high-net-worth individuals by large financial institutions. How it works:
1.	Collateral Assessment: Borrowers pledge their investment portfolios as collateral for the loan. The lender evaluates the portfolio to determine eligible securities and establishes a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. 
2.	Loan Amount: The amount available for borrowing is based on LTV. For example, lenders may allow borrowing up to 70% of the value of stocks and more than 90% of certain government securities. 
3.	Access to Funds: Once the loan is approved, borrowers can access the funds through checks or wire transfers. The loan can be used for almost any purpose.
According to its annual report, JPMorgan has total loans outstanding of $586 billion at the end of 2024. Of which, Banking & Wealth Management accounted for $33B (5.7%).
JPMorgan accepts the following as collateral: Stocks (liquid Large-cap stocks), Bonds (U.S. Treasury securities), Mutual Funds (large mutual funds and ETFs), and Other Securities (Hedge funds, private equity positions, and certain alternative investments).
•	In May, JPMorgan started accepting shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as loan collateral. IBIT has net asset value of $87.6B as of October 31st.
•	By the end of the year, JPMorgan will accept bitcoin (market cap $2.9 trillion) and Ethereum (market cap $463 billion) as collateral for its securities-based lending.
 How big is the securities-based lending market overall?  
At a 2024 report, the Federal Reserve estimates the total size of securities-based lending from the Top 100 US banks at $138B by Q1 2024.
 
Private research (Growth Market Reports) estimates that the global securities-backed lending market size reached $540.2B in 2024. The market is currently expanding at a CAGR of 8.7%, with expectations to attain a value of $1,134.9B by 2033.
This growth is fueled by heightened demand for liquidity solutions, the proliferation of wealth management services, and the rising adoption of flexible credit facilities.
In my opinion, the JPMorgan actions will kick off a trend. As financial assets increasingly become tokenized, the demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum will grow exponentially. Securities-based lending is one of the many uses in mainstream financing.
Unlike the Fed, we can’t print new Bitcoin and Ethereum at will. New demands, from 401k and loan collateral alike, could reach hundreds of billions. This will be the catalyst to lift up the digital gold and silver to the next level.
 Riding the ride with Micro Bitcoin and ETF Futures 
Traders who share the bullish view on Bitcoins and Ethereum could explore CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( PSE:MBT ) and Micro ETH Futures ( NYSE:MET ).
The MBT contract has a notional value of 0.10 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR). On October 31st, the December contract (MBTZ5) is settled at $110,910. Each contract has a notional value of $11,091. To buy or sell one contract, CME Group requires an initial margin of $2,662. By design, this futures contract has a built-in leverage of 4.2-to-1. When bitcoin goes up, futures positions could enhance the return by four times compared to spot bitcoin positions.
MET has a notional value of 0.10 ETH. On October 31st, the December contract (METZ5) is settled at $3,932.5, putting the contract value at $393.25. The initial margin is $126, implying a built-in leverage of 3.1-to-1. When Ethereum goes up, futures positions could enhance the return by three times compared to spot ETH positions.
What happens if Bitcoin or Ethereum drops? For price protection, traders could enter a buy order with a stoploss. For example:
•	A long MBTZ5 order at 110,910 with a stoploss of 95,000 limits the maximum loss to $1,591 (= (110910-95000) x 0.1).
•	A long METZ5 order at 3,935.5 with a stoploss of 3,500 limits the maximum loss to $43.25 (= (3932.5-3500) x 0.1).
In addition to margin (leverage) and stoploss (loss protection), both Micro Bitcoin and Micro ETH have a daily price limit at 10%. This feature is particularly helpful when the market is panicky. Price Limit or Circuit slows down the irrational price movements until cooler heads prevail.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs  www.tradingview.com
GBPUSD | Anticipating Buy sideGBPUSD has recently swept daily equal lows, collecting resting liquidity and tapping into a daily bullish order block. This confluence suggests the potential for a buyside reaction if price maintains structure above intraday support.
On the 1H timeframe, I’ll maintain a bullish bias as long as we do not close below 1.31230. A 1H close beneath this level would signal a failed bias and potential shift in order flow.
My expectation is for price to reprice toward equilibrium and eventually reach the 1.33000 region, aligning with prior inefficiency and liquidity resting above recent highs.
However, DXY behavior will be a key factor.
If DXY opens with a gap up and sustains bullish momentum into Monday’s close, this would likely reverse GBPUSD bias to the downside.
Otherwise, I’ll look for continued accumulation and a bullish continuation phase.
Trade Parameters:
Bias: Bullish (above 1.31230)
Invalidation: 1H candle close below 1.31230
Target Zones: 1.3190 → 1.3230 → 1.3300
Context: Daily liquidity sweep + OB reaction + potential market structure shift
US30 | Dow Jones Extends Gains Above 47,565 SupportUS30 – MARKET OUTLOOK | Bullish Momentum Holds Above Pivot Zone 🇺🇸
The Dow Jones remains bullish after stabilizing above the pivot line at 47,565, supported by positive sentiment in earnings and broader risk appetite.
🔼 Above 47,565: Bullish bias toward 47,760 → 47,920 → 48,040.
🔽 Below 47,565: Bearish correction toward 47,460 → 47,250 → 47,100.
Pivot: 47,570
Support: 47,460 · 47,250 · 46,920
Resistance: 47,760 · 47,920 · 48,040
US30 stays bullish while above 47,565, but a break below could trigger a short-term pullback toward lower supports.
Bitcoin at Make-or-Break Zone. History Says Bounce Incoming!IG:BITCOIN  is currently trading above the 50 EMA on the 1W chart, a level that has historically acted as a strong dynamic support during previous bullish cycles.
Each time  CRYPTOCAP:BTC  has touched the 50 EMA in the past (as highlighted on the chart), it has triggered a strong rebound leading to significant upside moves. Currently, the price is consolidating near both the support zone and the 50 EMA, suggesting that the market is once again at a critical juncture.
If  IG:BITCOIN  manages to hold this zone and bounce, we could see the next bullish leg pushing towards $150K. However, a clean break below the 50 EMA and support area could indicate a short-term downtrend or deeper correction before resuming the uptrend.
Traders should stay patient and prepared for all possible scenarios. Risk management remains key at these levels.Plan your entries and stops accordingly.
Example of a Trading Style
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While it's ideal to always close a trade in profit, this isn't always the case.
Therefore, you should maintain your trade by locking in profits through fractional trading.
Based on the trading information provided by the exchange, once a trade has turned into a loss, it's likely to take a considerable amount of time to turn into a profit again.
Therefore, you should trade at different buy and sell prices.
However, this is a rather tedious process, so it's not usually done that way.
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If you were to buy near the area shown on the chart, the estimated average purchase price would be significantly higher than the current price.
Therefore, you wouldn't be able to proceed with the trade.
Therefore, we must trade by purchase price.
The purchase prices for positions 1 and 2 are quite high, so we don't pay attention to them.
Since the current price is near the purchase price for position 3, if it turns into a profit, you can sell the amount you purchased near position 3 to lock in the profit.
By subtracting this profit from the purchase price for positions 1 and 2, you can minimize your losses.
This trading method is possible because the coin market allows trading in decimals.
The key here is to trade by purchase price.
You should not trade in units of the number of coins you purchased.
For example, if you purchased $100 at point 3 (106431.68), you should sell $100 when the price rises.
Trading this way will allow you to quickly recover from losses and even generate profits even during losses.
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You can profit whenever volatility occurs, regardless of whether the asset (coin or token) you're trading is in a loss or a profit.
You should avoid increasing the number of assets (coins or tokens) you're trading without managing them.
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To do this,
1. Mark support and resistance points on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
2. Develop a basic trading strategy using these support and resistance points.
3. Avoid greed and execute split trades according to your trading strategy.
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Thank you for reading to the end. I wish you successful trading.
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Nike Isn’t Flying AnymoreNike was once an unstoppable consumer giant. However, with its last all-time high four years in the rearview mirror, some traders may see downside risk.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the June 11 high of $64.85. NKE bounced above that level on October 10 but ended the month slightly below it. That may indicate support isn’t holding.
Second, the falling 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is falling. Prices are also slipping back below it, which may suggest its long-term trend is bearish.
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. That could mean its short-term trend is also bearish.
Fourth, the stock tried to rally after its last earnings report but buyers soon evaporated. Does that reflect a lack of enthusiasm about its fundamentals?
Finally, chart watchers may see risk of NKE revisiting its 52-week low at $52.28.
 
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ES - November 3rd - Daily Trade PlanNovember 3rd - Daily Trade Plan - 7:15am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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Last week price took out the prior week's low of 6865 and finished the day right at 6867. We gapped up last night and our overnight high is 6902 and our low is 6873 and closed the gap from the Sunday evening open. We still have a gap to be filled from last Sunday's open around 6824 area. 
Price is currently building a nice base at the 6893 level, and this is the same level that we had on Friday that broke out and then we sold off after the open. We can see that we have a lower low from Friday at 6843 and 6918 is the high. Technically, price needs to reclaim 6918 to continue higher. 
Key Levels Today -
1. Loss of 6893 and reclaim 
2. Loss of 6882 and reclaim
3. Loss of 6873 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6867 and reclaim
5. Loss of 6851 and reclaim
6. Loss of 6843 and reclaim
Below these levels and we will probably be selling off pretty hard, and I would probably let price find a support level below and build a base to move higher.
Key Support Levels - 6893, 6888, 6882, 6873, 6867, 6859, 6851, 6843
Key Resistance Levels - 6902, 6908, 6914, 6918, 6923, 6930, 6944, 6953
As of writing this post, 6893 has been building a nice base that should give us a move higher, any price action that clears 6902 prior to 9:30am open, and then can't hold that level, we should expect price to potentially move lower. 
Let's see what happens at the open, but my general lean is that IF price can clear 6918, it should give us higher prices in the coming days. IF we lose, 6843, we will probably flush pretty quickly lower.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
XAU/USD (Gold) chart Pattern..XAU/USD (Gold) chart carefully 👇
🧭 Timeframe:
Im  using 1-hour (1H) chart.
📊 Current Setup:
I have a descending triangle or symmetrical triangle pattern forming.
Price is around $4,000–$4,005.
The support trendline (bottom) has been tested multiple times, showing potential weakness.
Ichimoku Cloud is flat and price is below the mid-zone — a slightly bearish bias.
📉 Breakout Direction:
The chart shows blue arrows pointing downward, meaning a bearish breakout is expected.
🎯 Target Levels (based on my chart’s marking):
1. First Target Point: around $3,975 – $3,980
(Short-term target after triangle breakdown.)
2. Second Target Point: around $3,920 – $3,925
(Extended bearish target if momentum continues.)
⚠ Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $4,020 – $4,030
Break Zone (confirmation of sell): below $3,995 candle close (1H).
Support/Buy Zone: $3,920 – $3,925
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Summary:
Action	Target	Comment
Sell below $3,995	🎯 $3,975	First take-profit
Hold/sell continuation	🎯 $3,920	Final target zone
Stop loss	🔺 $4,030	Above upper trendline
Gold Buying every local Low'sAs discussed throughout my Friday's session commentary: 'My position: I have been monitoring Gold from sidelines as mentioned throughout yesterday's session Highly satisfied with my Profit, as I spotted that #3,988.80 is showcasing strong durability, I have started Buying Gold with aggressive Scalps from #3,988.80 - #3,992.80 many times with at least #15ish orders delivering excellent Profits. I do believe Gold will continue soaring as long as Support zone is intact with #4,052.80 mark as my next Short-term Target.'
 Technical analysis:  The current Hourly 4 candle is already too Neutral to deliver continuation of Intra-day Buying sentiment and with Hourly 1 chart’s switch from Neutral to Bullish regarding the Short-term, Price-action limited the uptrend (even though Gold should be Higher, relative to circumstances and debacle on U.S. announcements), as Investors started taking Profits on their Buying orders and finding value within the #3,988.80 - #4,027.80 belt again (confirms U.S. sessions decline on unprecedented Volatility on Gold’s Price-action). The key is the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone priced at #4,027.80 - #4,033.80 which rejected the Price-action twice (current Month) and has already done so throughout last week on multiple occasions. This is the key and if that configuration breaks, Short-term Buyers should take it to #4,052.80 impulse in extension. Otherwise, the #3,975.80 - #3,988.80 Support zone should be re-tested for a potential Double or Triple Bottom as in late September. The DX though got rejected on it’s Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance and it is due to the weak Bond Yields market that Gold isn't near #4,052.80 mark already, and it became obvious that market speculators were manually preventing the meltdown I have been mentioning, knowing that U.S. announcement will revive Buyers as in late June. 
 My position:  I am taking advantage of Buying every local Low's since Friday's session last week, Buying either #3,988.80 Support with set of aggressive orders, or #3,992.80 Support in extension. I have Bought #4,001.80 as well towards #4,012.80 or above and will continue to do so until Gold is presented with a break-out to the upside. I do expect #5,100.80 benchmark on Medium-term.
EURUSD possible drop to long term support level?with DXY appreciation, EURUSD down trend is on and as expected price has open with a gap early with market open. With multiple liquidity grab, EURUSD approaching a large FVG in 4h timeframe which could push further below previous support @1.1391 and possible break of support as montly, weekly and daily price aligning with bearing price action. 
With 4h entry a bearis rejection is high probability entry
BITCOIN and stocks, 2021 vs 2025...Bitcoin (BTCUSD) could be entering a new Bear Cycle and as we've mentioned a few times recently, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) will play a big part at deciding that. This is basically the level that BTC is testing right now.
What may seem surprising to some, is that while Bitcoin has been correcting, the stock market (S&P500 illustrated by the black trend-line) has been rising making All Time High (ATH) after All Time High. This is not uncommon towards the end of Bull Cycles and has been particularly relevant during the Top of the previous (2021) Cycle.
As you can see, Bitcoin topped 7 weeks before stocks did, as we witnessed heavy profit taking and rotation of those (extraordinary) crypto gains towards stocks. Even the 1W RSI Lower Highs structure is similar between 2021 and 2025. The 4-year Cycle Theory in full confirmation (so far).
If the pattern plays out the exact same way time-wise as in 2021 (often it doesn't), we should be expecting stocks to top around the week of November 24. As for Bitcoin's trend after, following the 2022 blueprint wouldn't be unreasonable at all, as a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA50 would open the way to a 1W MA100 (green trend-line) test, multiple months of ranged price action between the two and then violent crash towards the 1M MA100 (red trend-line).
So do you think Bitcoin has topped and if yes, are stocks about to follow soon? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Silver Turns Bearish Again – Watch 47.50 Support CloselyPretty similar to Gold, Silver also failed to break above resistance yesterday and started to roll back down.
A few hours ago, the price touched short-term support and is now seeing a minor rebound.
However, the structure has clearly turned bearish, with lower highs confirming momentum exhaustion.
If 47.50 support breaks, a visit to 45.50 becomes highly probable — and even a test of the psychological 45.00 level shouldn’t be ruled out.
My strategy is to sell rallies, ideally near intraday resistance, following the medium-term bearish bias.
EURUSD - Euro Falls to Fresh Three-Month LowEURUSD – MARKET OVERVIEW | Euro Falls to Fresh Three-Month Low 🇪🇺
The euro extended its decline toward $1.15 at the start of November, hitting a fresh three-month low as traders reacted to the European Central Bank’s recent policy stance and interest rate outlook.
Despite signs that Eurozone manufacturing activity stabilized in October, the currency found little support, with investors focused on the ECB’s unchanged policy rate and steady inflation outlook.
 Technical Outlook
EURUSD has stabilized below the pivot zone at 1.1558–1.1535, signaling ongoing downward momentum.
As long as the pair trades below this range, the trend remains bearish, targeting 1.1450, with further downside toward 1.1373 if that level breaks.
A 1H close above 1.1558, however, would shift momentum to bullish, opening the way toward 1.1620 and 1.1685.
 Key Technical Levels
Pivot Line: 1.1550
Support: 1.1450 · 1.1373
Resistance: 1.1620 · 1.1685
💡 Outlook:
EURUSD remains bearish below 1.1558, with scope to retest 1.1450–1.1373.
A confirmed break above 1.1558 would reverse sentiment toward 1.1620–1.1685.
EUR/USD: Sellers Building Short Positions at Resistance 1.1613A strong resistance has formed on EUR/USD at 1.1613, confirmed by a heavy volume zone where sellers built short positions before a sharp sell-off. If price pulls back to this area, those sellers will likely defend it again. I’m watching this level for short trades.
Gold may reverse up if support ~3,950–3,970 USD/oz holds📊 Market Overview: 
Gold is trading around ~3,980 USD/oz in the Asian session after declining from ~4,020 and dipping near ~3,975. On the H4 timeframe the selling pressure remains as no strong bottom has yet been confirmed around the support zone. Meanwhile, economic data and USD/crude oil swings continue to exert pressure.
 📉 Technical Analysis: 
•	Key support: ~3,950–3,970 USD/oz (previous bounce zone).
•	Immediate resistance: ~4,020–4,040 USD/oz.
•	The EMA 50 is around ~3,990-4,000, acting as interim resistance.
•	If price closes H4 below ~3,950 → likely target ~3,900. If it holds above ~3,970 and rallies, target ~4,040.
•	Recent H4 candles show a potential hammer/pin-bar at the support zone, but we need confirmation via a strong H4 close.
 📌 Outlook: 
The medium-term bias remains neutral to slightly bearish until support ~3,950-3,970 holds and price closes above ~4,000 on H4. If the support breaks, deeper declines are probable. If support holds and we see volume/momentum pick up in EU/US session, a recovery may kick in.
 💡 Suggested Strategy: 
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry: 3,972 – 3,969
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 PIPS
❌ SL: 3,966
🔻 SELL XAU/USD
Entry: 4019 – 4022
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 PIPS
❌ SL: 4025
Scalp Short – JELLY JELLY💎 Scalp Short – JELLY JELLY
RSI is heavily overbought, confirmed across the 1H timeframe, signaling exhaustion of bullish momentum.
Price is facing a strong resistance zone, where prior rejection occurred — suggesting a high-probability pullback.
🎯 Plan:
→ Enter on confirmation of rejection at resistance.
→ TP: 0.06294 | SL: 0.12658 | RR: 1 : 3.93
Momentum favors sellers.
Ride the retracement with discipline — secure profits as price approaches target.
XAUUSD (Gold) – Possible Bullish Reversal SetupGold has been consolidating around a strong demand zone (green area) near $3,920 – $4,000, showing signs of buyer strength. Price has tested this area multiple times without a clear breakdown, suggesting that buyers are actively defending this level.
If price holds above this support, we could see a bullish move toward the next major supply zone (red area) around $4,250 – $4,320.
🔹 Entry Idea: Wait for bullish confirmation or rejection wick at the demand zone
🔹 Target Zone: $4,250 – $4,320
🔹 Stop Loss: Below $3,900 support
🔹 Risk–Reward: Approx. 1:3
🧠 Technical Bias: Bullish continuation from support
📈 Market Structure: Higher timeframe still showing accumulation after correction
⚠️ Note: Watch upcoming USD news (NFP, FOMC, CPI) as they can heavily impact gold volatility.
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💬 What do you think? Will gold bounce from this level or break below the zone? Drop your analysis below! 👇
#XAUUSD #GOLD #PriceAction #TradingView #ForexAnalysis #GoldForecast #SmartMoneyConcepts #TechnicalAnalysis #BuySetup
USDT Dominance is going to "fill the wick"CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D  is likely going to fill the previous wick.
Then, if the downtrend is respected we'll likely retrace to new lows.
W1 timeframe is still bearish and D1 is transitioning to bullis/neutral.
IMO max pain before any signs of reovery. Bear trap, then the big expansion move.
2 / 3 weeks of pain in the markets, then UP ONLY.
If this is wrong, the cycle is over and we'll go into massive a bear market.






















