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Trend Analysis

End of the Decline? Bitcoin Completes Bearish CorrectionTwo weeks ago, I shared a bearish outlook on Bitcoin, highlighting the likelihood of a decline toward the 66k region to complete Wave 5. Since then, price has followed through precisely as expected, reaching both projected downside targets and tagging the lower boundary of the descending channel. This move completes the broader impulsive decline and marks a technically significant area for trend exhaustion. With Wave 5 now likely complete, focus shifts to the potential for a structural reversal. The sharp rejection from the lows and subsequent recovery suggest selling pressure may be fading. If price can begin to form a clear impulsive move higher, this would indicate the development of Wave 1 to the upside, which is critical for confirming a bullish setup. In the near term, pullbacks should be monitored for higher lows rather than continuation lower. A sustained reclaim of prior resistance would further strengthen the bullish case and signal that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a corrective phase into a new impulsive advance. Until proven otherwise, downside objectives have been met, and risk is increasingly skewed toward upside expansion. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Timgucci
BTCUSD Structural Shift, Key Levels & Short-Term BiasBTCUSD is transitioning from a pronounced downtrend into a short-term recovery phase. The previous structure, defined by lower highs and lower lows along a descending trendline, reflects strong selling pressure, accentuated by visible gaps during the decline, indicating weak acceptance at higher levels. Price established a base near 62,000–63,000, rebounding to breach the short-term bearish structure and forming an initial higher low. While this signals short-term relief, it does not yet confirm a full trend reversal. Immediate resistance is observed near 70,000–71,000, a key supply zone where selling interest may re-emerge. Intraday support lies around 68,500–67,500, offering potential buy-on-dip opportunities for tactical traders. Failure to sustain above resistance could trigger consolidation or a pullback toward 65,000, with 61,000 remaining the principal downside support. Overall bias remains neutral to cautiously bearish below the risk zone. Traders are advised to wait for confirmation, manage exposure prudently, and avoid assumptions amid elevated volatility.
OANDA:BTCUSDShort
by SwingTrade_Concept
RSI Divergence – Momentum Weakening Framework📉 RSI Divergence – Momentum Weakening Framework This chart illustrates how RSI divergence helps identify weakening momentum during a down move, even when price continues to fall. RSI divergence is not a buy or sell signal by itself. Instead, it highlights a loss of momentum, often appearing before price stabilizes or reacts. This framework focuses on: The relationship between price action and momentum Identifying exhaustion during sustained moves Avoiding emotional entries during strong trends RSI divergence reveals what is changing under the surface, not what price must do next. 📊 Key Observations 1️⃣ Price Action (Lower Low Formation) In the price chart: Price continues to make a lower low (LL) Visually, the trend still appears bearish At this stage, most traders assume downside continuation. 2️⃣ RSI Behavior (Higher Low Formation) On the RSI indicator: RSI fails to make a lower low RSI instead forms a higher low (HL) This creates a clear mismatch between price and momentum. 3️⃣ What RSI Divergence Means RSI divergence occurs when: Price and RSI move in opposite directions Price shows strength in the trend, but momentum does not Important clarification: RSI divergence does not predict a reversal. It signals that selling pressure is weakening, even if price is still falling. 4️⃣ Why This Matters In trending markets: Price can continue falling even as momentum fades Strong trends slow down before they reverse or consolidate RSI divergence often appears during: Trend exhaustion Pullback completion Volatility compression before a reaction Momentum usually changes before price structure does. 5️⃣ How RSI Divergence Is Used Effectively RSI divergence works best when: Used as a context tool, not a trigger Combined with price structure or support zones Followed by visible price stabilization or reaction RSI tells you pressure is changing, not where to enter blindly. 6️⃣ What Invalidates the Idea? The divergence loses relevance if: Price continues making strong impulsive lower lows RSI starts breaking down and follows price lower No pause or reaction appears in price Divergence without price response is information, not confirmation. 📊 Chart Explanation Symbol: FX:EURUSD Timeframe: 2H This chart highlights: Price forming a clear lower low RSI forming a higher low A bullish RSI divergence structure Early signs of momentum exhaustion Expected Market Behavior: Strong trend → Momentum slows → Divergence forms → Price stabilizes or reacts RSI divergence explains why momentum is weakening, not when to enter. 📘 How to Use RSI Divergence Correctly Best Practices Use RSI divergence as a warning signal Always wait for price confirmation Combine with structure, zones, or trend context Common Mistake Buying immediately after spotting divergence Correct Approach Let price show that sellers are losing control ⚠️ Disclaimer For educational purposes only Not financial advice Markets involve risk
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by MarketAlgoBot
OSCR 1W: Insurance priced for patienceOn the weekly chart Oscar Health is building a broad base after a prolonged decline. Price has stabilized above a long-term rising trendline originating from the 2022 lows and is now trading back into a key area of interest where the market previously showed acceptance. The technical focus is the 10.33–11.00 zone. This area aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, weekly trendline support, and the 200-week moving average, making it structurally significant. The pullback into this zone is not accompanied by increasing downside momentum. ADX remains subdued, indicating a lack of trend pressure and pointing toward accumulation rather than distribution. Volume around this area is concentrated, suggesting active participation rather than passive sell-through. Structurally, the move higher is built from a base rather than a vertical impulse. The first major reaction area above is located near 31.50, where the market previously paused and reversed on the higher timeframe. Acceptance above that level would open the path toward the next structural reaction zone near 44, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the multi-year structure. These are not forecasts, but logical reaction levels derived from market structure. Fundamentally, the picture supports the long-term context. Revenue for Q3 2025 reached 2.92B USD, with Q4 2025 revenue estimated at 3.11B USD. EPS for Q3 came in at -0.53 USD, with Q4 estimated at -0.89 USD ahead of the upcoming earnings report. Cash flow remains positive, with operating cash flow TTM at 769.77M USD and free cash flow TTM at 735.64M USD. Valuation remains compressed, with price-to-sales at 0.29 and enterprise value at 3.49B USD. As long as price holds this structural area, the market appears to be building a base rather than extending the prior downtrend. The question is not speed, but acceptance. Sometimes insurance only pays off with time.
NYSE:OSCRLong
by TotoshkaTrades
Tracking > Prediction(This Is the Edge Most Traders Never Develop) Most traders lose not because they lack setups… but because they stop listening once they form a bias. The moment you predict, you mentally lock in. The moment you lock in, you stop tracking. And when tracking stops, awareness dies. ⸻ 📍 Structure Is Not a Signal — It’s a Living Framework Structure isn’t a line you draw and defend. It’s a story that updates in real time. If you’re not actively observing: • which highs/lows are protected • how price reacts after liquidity is tapped • whether displacement follows intent Then you’re not trading structure — you’re hoping structure holds. Hope is not a strategy. ⸻ 💧 Liquidity Is Taken Before Direction Is Paid Price doesn’t move because it “looks bullish” or “looks bearish.” It moves because: • inducement was completed • imbalance was engineered • positioning was finalized If liquidity hasn’t been taken properly, direction is early — no matter how clean the setup looks. Tracking keeps you patient enough to let price earn the move. ⸻ 👀 Tracking Is Awareness in Motion Awareness isn’t knowing concepts. Awareness is watching price prove or disprove your idea. Tracking means: • observing reaction quality, not just levels • noticing when structure weakens before it breaks • accepting when price shifts character • standing down when alignment disappears This is how you stay in sync instead of stuck in bias. ⸻ ⏳ The Best Trades Feel Boring First If you’re excited early, you’re probably early. Real moves: • build slowly • frustrate impatient traders • reward those who wait through nothing Tracking teaches you to sit through the quiet without forcing action. Boredom is often confirmation. ⸻ 🚫 Missed Trades Are Part of the Edge You don’t get paid for being present. You get paid for being aligned. If price didn’t: • respect structure • complete inducement • confirm intent You let it go. Capital preservation is awareness applied. ⸻ 🔑 THE LAW THAT RULES THEM ALL Tracking beats prediction every time. The moment you guess, you stop listening. Structure is the map. Tracking is walking the path. Awareness is knowing when to pause, continue, or step aside. That’s how clean entries show up. That’s how losses stay small. That’s how traders last. “Structure is the map. Tracking is walking the path. Awareness is knowing when to stop.”
Education
by Juicemannn
1
Idea of the week : SFM Counter trend trade forming Macro Context: A Strong Trend That Became Overextended SFM experienced a massive multi-month rally, printing a series of uninterrupted higher highs. This type of parabolic rise often leaves inefficiencies and untested demand zones below, which eventually get revisited once momentum fades. When a trend becomes overly extended: Buyers who chased late become trapped at highs Sellers wait for exhaustion to strike Price typically retraces to deeper structural levels to find "true" demand SFM’s rejection at the top aligns with that narrative: the trend was too steep, too long, and lacked meaningful corrections. 2. Breakdown of Structure → Trend Shift The chart clearly shows: A clean Break of Structure (BOS) downward Followed by a Change of Character (CHoCH) confirming the shift Price trending lower in a controlled channel This signals that the primary trend is now bearish, meaning any long opportunity is automatically counter-trend, designed to capture corrective rallies rather than a full trend reversal. Counter-trend trades rely on: Identifying exhaustion Finding high-timeframe demand Targeting inefficiencies left behind in the previous impulse SFM fits this criteria cleanly. 3. Price Has Entered a Major High-Timeframe Demand Zone The current region between $60–$63 encompasses: A large Monthly bullish imbalance/FVG A Yearly bullish FVG support A previously unmitigated demand block A historical accumulation area from before the major rally When price returns to these types of areas after a massive run, it often: Absorbs remaining sell pressure Attracts value-based buyers Produces a temporary higher low → the seed of a counter-trend rally This is why the zone is ideal for a reactionary long, even in a larger bearish environment. 4. Evidence of Seller Exhaustion Within the demand zone: Candles shrink Wicks appear on the downside Momentum cools Price stops waterfalling and starts compressing This behavior suggests sellers are no longer in full control and that the downtrend is losing steam, creating a window for a counter-trend bullish bounce. Expectation is not for a full reversal, but for price to retrace into: Unfilled gaps above Previous consolidation ranges Lower-timeframe breakdown points These areas naturally act as magnets during corrective rallies. 5. Unfulfilled Upside Imbalances Provide Clear Targets Above current price, the chart shows: Target 1 – $72–74 The first inefficiency and structural breakdown zone. This is typically the earliest target for a counter-trend move. Target 2 – $82–85 A high-probability fill area where a prior impulse left a clean gap. Corrective rallies love to fill these. Target 3 – $105–110 A massive bearish monthly imbalance where a strong rejection is expected. This level is unlikely unless a broader market rally assists, but remains structurally valid. These levels are attractive to counter-trend traders because corrective moves naturally gravitate to unfinished business ― and SFM has plenty above. 6. Why This Is Counter-Trend, Not Trend Reversal To be clear: The higher-timeframe trend is still down The trade is not calling for a break to new highs This setup aims to capture the bounce phase inside a larger retracement cycle Counter-trend trades work because markets do not move in straight lines: They move: → Impulse → Corrective bounce → Impulse continuation We are targeting that middle corrective phase, not predicting a new macro uptrend. Counter-Trend Setup Summary Entry Zone: $60.00 – $63.00 Stop Loss: $56.00 – $58.00 Below structural low & demand zone base. Targets: T1: $72–74 T2: $82–85 T3: $105–110 (major rejection likely) Trade Type: Short-term corrective rally inside a bearish macro trend. Disclosure This write-up is based solely on public chart structure. It is not financial advice, and risk should always be managed accordingly.
NASDAQ:SFMLong
by AlphapulseAI
EURUSD – 1H Bullish SetupThe market is showing clear bullish momentum on the 1-hour timeframe. A well-defined bullish divergence is visible, indicating a potential continuation of the upward move. Price action suggests that buyers are gaining control. A breakout above the neckline would further validate the bullish bias and provide a potential long entry opportunity. Trade management levels (TPs and SL) have been marked on the chart in line with a structured risk management approach. Risk Management: Risk per trade should not exceed 0.5%–1% of account equity. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Trade_With_Sherry
9/2/26 Can Bears Create FT Selling or 20-Day EMA Act As Support? Friday’s candlestick (Feb. 6) was a bear bar closing near its low and below the 20-day EMA. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bears could create more follow-through selling, testing the 20-day EMA or closing below it, or if the pullback phase would lack follow-through selling; overlapping candlesticks, prominent tails below bars, prominent bull bars The market has traded down and formed a roughly 50% pullback from the January rally. Bulls see the current pullback as a retest of the January 13 breakout point. They see the current move as a two-legged sideways-to-down pullback and want the 20-day EMA to act as a support level. Bulls expect to get at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the prior leg high (Jan 29), even if it only forms a lower high. Bears want a reversal from a double top bear flag (with November 19). They need to create consecutive strong bear bars below the 20-day EMA to show they are in control. Fundamentals: • Production: Production for Feb will be down. • Refineries: Not paying premiums vs spot futures - yet. • Exports: ITS Feb first 5 days down 1.87% The bulls created a strong breakout above the trading range, accompanied by follow-through buying. The move is in a tight bull channel, indicating persistent buying. The strong pullback indicates the bears are also active. The market may still form a retest of the prior leg high (Jan 29), even if it only forms a lower high. For Monday (February 9), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA. Or will the market stall around the 20-day EMA area, followed by a retest of the January high in the days ahead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
GBPCAD LONG last week we seen price drop from near highs down to 1.85000 psychological level. An unexpected drop as price was looking at re-testing 1.88000 level. Never the less this was helped by an unexpected vote on the gbp bank rate as more voted to cut than expected. this with a strengthen in the us dollar helped the canadian dollar gain some ground. This correction in the market is a reset. i believe we will see price continue its push back to recent highs as we had a strong move on Friday. A potential inverted head and shoulders could form on our route back to the upside between the 1.87000 resistance and the 1.86000 support area. keep updated with @Bulmancapitalmarkets here.
Long
by Bulmancapitalmarkets
BTCUSD – Swing Idea ( 2-6 weeks )BTC is currently pulling back into a large discount zone, approaching the Yearly FVG support and the marked Strategic Entry Zone on the chart. Price has swept prior lows and is sitting above a major liquidity pocket, suggesting the market may be preparing for a reactionary move. The projected path shows a possible deeper liquidity sweep into the green support zone followed by a reversal and rally toward mid-range inefficiencies and bearish OBs. Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias if Support Holds) Entry Thesis Price is expected to retest the Yearly FVG support and form a reaction. A bullish reversal becomes valid only if price holds above the lower boundary of the Strategic Entry Zone and reclaims structure. Proposed Entry Entry Area: $54,000 – $58,000 zone (Strategic Entry Zone + FVG support) Invalidation / Stop Loss: Below $50,000 → breaks structure & invalidates bullish reaction narrative. Upside Targets Target 1: $78,000 – $80,000 (Mid-range inefficiency fill + first bearish reaction OB) Target 2: $105,000 – $108,000 (Swing OB reaction zone / major resistance cluster) Extended Target: $125,000 – $126,000 (High-timeframe bearish OB + major liquidity zone projected on chart) Reasoning Strong historical FVG support beneath price. Sweep-and-reclaim pattern anticipated. Significant inefficiencies above price provide natural magnet targets. Higher-timeframe bearish OBs align well as profit-taking levels. Bearish Scenario (Contingency Plan) Bearish Thesis If BTC fails to hold the green Strategic Entry Zone and closes below $50,000, the bullish scenario becomes invalid. Breakdown Targets Target 1: $45,000 Target 2: $38,000 (major weekly structural low) This remains a secondary scenario unless support fails decisively. Disclosure This write-up is for educational and chart-interpretation purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Always manage risk, use proper position sizing, and consult a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AlphapulseAI
2
Bitsounis / BTC1! - When does the trend change?Good evening everyone so far as we mentioned it has made a good reaction but let's take a closer look at how the price can move and when the climate can change. 📌The basic plan at the moment The basic plan at the moment based on the trend is bears. The goal is the OPEN GAP at the $80,000 levels but also at the high resistance that exists and the price to move sideways downwards with the next possible entey at $55500. 😅The positive scenario but unfortunate based on the trend does not have enough chances, is to go back to the $80,000 levels which is the gap to make a retest at fib lvl and break $88,000 in a long time frame. As you will see in the image above the CPR of the month.
CME:BTC1!
by BitsounisProject