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Trend Analysis

Tracking > Prediction(This Is the Edge Most Traders Never Develop) Most traders lose not because they lack setups… but because they stop listening once they form a bias. The moment you predict, you mentally lock in. The moment you lock in, you stop tracking. And when tracking stops, awareness dies. ⸻ 📍 Structure Is Not a Signal — It’s a Living Framework Structure isn’t a line you draw and defend. It’s a story that updates in real time. If you’re not actively observing: • which highs/lows are protected • how price reacts after liquidity is tapped • whether displacement follows intent Then you’re not trading structure — you’re hoping structure holds. Hope is not a strategy. ⸻ 💧 Liquidity Is Taken Before Direction Is Paid Price doesn’t move because it “looks bullish” or “looks bearish.” It moves because: • inducement was completed • imbalance was engineered • positioning was finalized If liquidity hasn’t been taken properly, direction is early — no matter how clean the setup looks. Tracking keeps you patient enough to let price earn the move. ⸻ 👀 Tracking Is Awareness in Motion Awareness isn’t knowing concepts. Awareness is watching price prove or disprove your idea. Tracking means: • observing reaction quality, not just levels • noticing when structure weakens before it breaks • accepting when price shifts character • standing down when alignment disappears This is how you stay in sync instead of stuck in bias. ⸻ ⏳ The Best Trades Feel Boring First If you’re excited early, you’re probably early. Real moves: • build slowly • frustrate impatient traders • reward those who wait through nothing Tracking teaches you to sit through the quiet without forcing action. Boredom is often confirmation. ⸻ 🚫 Missed Trades Are Part of the Edge You don’t get paid for being present. You get paid for being aligned. If price didn’t: • respect structure • complete inducement • confirm intent You let it go. Capital preservation is awareness applied. ⸻ 🔑 THE LAW THAT RULES THEM ALL Tracking beats prediction every time. The moment you guess, you stop listening. Structure is the map. Tracking is walking the path. Awareness is knowing when to pause, continue, or step aside. That’s how clean entries show up. That’s how losses stay small. That’s how traders last. “Structure is the map. Tracking is walking the path. Awareness is knowing when to stop.”
Education
by Juicemannn
1
EURUSD – 1H Bullish SetupThe market is showing clear bullish momentum on the 1-hour timeframe. A well-defined bullish divergence is visible, indicating a potential continuation of the upward move. Price action suggests that buyers are gaining control. A breakout above the neckline would further validate the bullish bias and provide a potential long entry opportunity. Trade management levels (TPs and SL) have been marked on the chart in line with a structured risk management approach. Risk Management: Risk per trade should not exceed 0.5%–1% of account equity. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Trade_With_Sherry
Idea of the week : SFM Counter trend trade forming Macro Context: A Strong Trend That Became Overextended SFM experienced a massive multi-month rally, printing a series of uninterrupted higher highs. This type of parabolic rise often leaves inefficiencies and untested demand zones below, which eventually get revisited once momentum fades. When a trend becomes overly extended: Buyers who chased late become trapped at highs Sellers wait for exhaustion to strike Price typically retraces to deeper structural levels to find "true" demand SFM’s rejection at the top aligns with that narrative: the trend was too steep, too long, and lacked meaningful corrections. 2. Breakdown of Structure → Trend Shift The chart clearly shows: A clean Break of Structure (BOS) downward Followed by a Change of Character (CHoCH) confirming the shift Price trending lower in a controlled channel This signals that the primary trend is now bearish, meaning any long opportunity is automatically counter-trend, designed to capture corrective rallies rather than a full trend reversal. Counter-trend trades rely on: Identifying exhaustion Finding high-timeframe demand Targeting inefficiencies left behind in the previous impulse SFM fits this criteria cleanly. 3. Price Has Entered a Major High-Timeframe Demand Zone The current region between $60–$63 encompasses: A large Monthly bullish imbalance/FVG A Yearly bullish FVG support A previously unmitigated demand block A historical accumulation area from before the major rally When price returns to these types of areas after a massive run, it often: Absorbs remaining sell pressure Attracts value-based buyers Produces a temporary higher low → the seed of a counter-trend rally This is why the zone is ideal for a reactionary long, even in a larger bearish environment. 4. Evidence of Seller Exhaustion Within the demand zone: Candles shrink Wicks appear on the downside Momentum cools Price stops waterfalling and starts compressing This behavior suggests sellers are no longer in full control and that the downtrend is losing steam, creating a window for a counter-trend bullish bounce. Expectation is not for a full reversal, but for price to retrace into: Unfilled gaps above Previous consolidation ranges Lower-timeframe breakdown points These areas naturally act as magnets during corrective rallies. 5. Unfulfilled Upside Imbalances Provide Clear Targets Above current price, the chart shows: Target 1 – $72–74 The first inefficiency and structural breakdown zone. This is typically the earliest target for a counter-trend move. Target 2 – $82–85 A high-probability fill area where a prior impulse left a clean gap. Corrective rallies love to fill these. Target 3 – $105–110 A massive bearish monthly imbalance where a strong rejection is expected. This level is unlikely unless a broader market rally assists, but remains structurally valid. These levels are attractive to counter-trend traders because corrective moves naturally gravitate to unfinished business ― and SFM has plenty above. 6. Why This Is Counter-Trend, Not Trend Reversal To be clear: The higher-timeframe trend is still down The trade is not calling for a break to new highs This setup aims to capture the bounce phase inside a larger retracement cycle Counter-trend trades work because markets do not move in straight lines: They move: → Impulse → Corrective bounce → Impulse continuation We are targeting that middle corrective phase, not predicting a new macro uptrend. Counter-Trend Setup Summary Entry Zone: $60.00 – $63.00 Stop Loss: $56.00 – $58.00 Below structural low & demand zone base. Targets: T1: $72–74 T2: $82–85 T3: $105–110 (major rejection likely) Trade Type: Short-term corrective rally inside a bearish macro trend. Disclosure This write-up is based solely on public chart structure. It is not financial advice, and risk should always be managed accordingly.
NASDAQ:SFMLong
by AlphapulseAI
GBPCAD LONG last week we seen price drop from near highs down to 1.85000 psychological level. An unexpected drop as price was looking at re-testing 1.88000 level. Never the less this was helped by an unexpected vote on the gbp bank rate as more voted to cut than expected. this with a strengthen in the us dollar helped the canadian dollar gain some ground. This correction in the market is a reset. i believe we will see price continue its push back to recent highs as we had a strong move on Friday. A potential inverted head and shoulders could form on our route back to the upside between the 1.87000 resistance and the 1.86000 support area. keep updated with @Bulmancapitalmarkets here.
Long
by Bulmancapitalmarkets
Bitsounis / BTC1! - When does the trend change?Good evening everyone so far as we mentioned it has made a good reaction but let's take a closer look at how the price can move and when the climate can change. 📌The basic plan at the moment The basic plan at the moment based on the trend is bears. The goal is the OPEN GAP at the $80,000 levels but also at the high resistance that exists and the price to move sideways downwards with the next possible entey at $55500. 😅The positive scenario but unfortunate based on the trend does not have enough chances, is to go back to the $80,000 levels which is the gap to make a retest at fib lvl and break $88,000 in a long time frame. As you will see in the image above the CPR of the month.
CME:BTC1!
by BitsounisProject
9/2/26 Can Bears Create FT Selling or 20-Day EMA Act As Support? Friday’s candlestick (Feb. 6) was a bear bar closing near its low and below the 20-day EMA. In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bears could create more follow-through selling, testing the 20-day EMA or closing below it, or if the pullback phase would lack follow-through selling; overlapping candlesticks, prominent tails below bars, prominent bull bars The market has traded down and formed a roughly 50% pullback from the January rally. Bulls see the current pullback as a retest of the January 13 breakout point. They see the current move as a two-legged sideways-to-down pullback and want the 20-day EMA to act as a support level. Bulls expect to get at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the prior leg high (Jan 29), even if it only forms a lower high. Bears want a reversal from a double top bear flag (with November 19). They need to create consecutive strong bear bars below the 20-day EMA to show they are in control. Fundamentals: • Production: Production for Feb will be down. • Refineries: Not paying premiums vs spot futures - yet. • Exports: ITS Feb first 5 days down 1.87% The bulls created a strong breakout above the trading range, accompanied by follow-through buying. The move is in a tight bull channel, indicating persistent buying. The strong pullback indicates the bears are also active. The market may still form a retest of the prior leg high (Jan 29), even if it only forms a lower high. For Monday (February 9), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA. Or will the market stall around the 20-day EMA area, followed by a retest of the January high in the days ahead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
#ETH is about to enter a resistance zone 📊#ETH is about to enter a resistance zone ⚠️ 🧠From a structural perspective, we are within the daily pullback target zone (green box), therefore a daily rebound is expected. However, a daily reversal structure has not yet formed in this area, so we will likely enter a sideways consolidation phase in the next few days. ➡️We are currently approaching the gray resistance zone (2023-2133) and support/resistance lines, so chasing the price upwards here is not recommended! I think the resistance around 2400 will be difficult to reach in the short term. ➡️Strong support is around 1788. Let's see 👀 🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬 BITGET:ETHUSDT.P
Short
by wolf_king888
1
GOLD Forming a sideways StructureGold is currently trading inside a clear range-bound structure, following a strong bearish move earlier in the session. Price is consolidating between major support near 4,560 and key resistance around 5,100, forming a sideways. Gold fell toward 4,750 today, extending a 3.8% loss from the previous session and remaining on track for its second consecutive weekly decline as selling pressure persists the pullback follows a period in which the metal repeatedly hit record highs in January, driven by heightened geopolitical risks, concerns over Federal Reserve independence, and speculative buying in China. Technical Outlook If price maintains support above 4,800, we could see an upside reaction toward 4,959 / 5,100. If price breaks below this support, downside targets come in around 4,702, followed by 4,559. Traders should wait for confirmation at these key zones to determine the next directional move. You may find more details in the chart, Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MR_GOLD_12
10
GBPUSD - Bullish Continuation | Tracking Mid - Term CorrectionGBPUSD remains bullish. No relevant lows have been taken on my operative timeframe, so I am maintaining continuation expectations within the mid-term structure. After internal liquidity was taken, price began distributing back into a prior accumulation area, which aligns with a corrective phase rather than a reversal. Price is now trading back inside the internal–external range, reinforcing that this move is still corrective in nature. My focus remains on full mitigation of the mid-term order block. Once mitigation is complete, I will look for a lower-timeframe structure shift to confirm that the correction has ended and delivery is ready to resume. Execution will not occur during uncertainty. I will only participate after structure confirms alignment within the mid-term zone, entering on the lower timeframe during the corrective phase that follows the shift. Trendlines are applied strictly as guardrails, not as decision tools — used only to help track whether the pullback remains healthy and corrective. Until structure confirms: • No forcing trades • No anticipation • No prediction Patience is the key. Tracking is the edge.
Long
by Juicemannn
1
GBPJPY - HTF Bullish | Volatility + Continuation FrameworkGBPJPY remains bullish on the higher timeframe. Higher-timeframe volatility has returned, with strong candles and volume stepping back in at key pivot areas. This supports continuation expectations rather than reversal. On the mid-term timeframe: • Internal liquidity has been taken • External liquidity from both the mid-term and higher-timeframe ranges has been cleared This was evident through multiple wicks that engineered liquidity before delivering bullish footprints, ultimately breaking previous weekly highs and reinforcing directional intent. Trendlines are applied strictly as guardrails — used only to visually track whether the higher-timeframe bullish structure and momentum remain healthy during pullbacks. After internal inducement is completed, my expectation is for price to mitigate into the accumulation area. From there, execution will only be considered after lower-timeframe structure confirms alignment. Mitigation alone is not enough. Trendline interaction alone is not enough. A clear structure shift is required so that participation stays aligned with momentum and higher-timeframe intent. For now: • Short-term bearish momentum = corrective • Bias remains bullish • No forced execution This is a phase of observation and tracking as price develops. Patience is the key. Tracking remains the edge.
Long
by Juicemannn
BTCUSD – Swing Idea ( 2-6 weeks )BTC is currently pulling back into a large discount zone, approaching the Yearly FVG support and the marked Strategic Entry Zone on the chart. Price has swept prior lows and is sitting above a major liquidity pocket, suggesting the market may be preparing for a reactionary move. The projected path shows a possible deeper liquidity sweep into the green support zone followed by a reversal and rally toward mid-range inefficiencies and bearish OBs. Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias if Support Holds) Entry Thesis Price is expected to retest the Yearly FVG support and form a reaction. A bullish reversal becomes valid only if price holds above the lower boundary of the Strategic Entry Zone and reclaims structure. Proposed Entry Entry Area: $54,000 – $58,000 zone (Strategic Entry Zone + FVG support) Invalidation / Stop Loss: Below $50,000 → breaks structure & invalidates bullish reaction narrative. Upside Targets Target 1: $78,000 – $80,000 (Mid-range inefficiency fill + first bearish reaction OB) Target 2: $105,000 – $108,000 (Swing OB reaction zone / major resistance cluster) Extended Target: $125,000 – $126,000 (High-timeframe bearish OB + major liquidity zone projected on chart) Reasoning Strong historical FVG support beneath price. Sweep-and-reclaim pattern anticipated. Significant inefficiencies above price provide natural magnet targets. Higher-timeframe bearish OBs align well as profit-taking levels. Bearish Scenario (Contingency Plan) Bearish Thesis If BTC fails to hold the green Strategic Entry Zone and closes below $50,000, the bullish scenario becomes invalid. Breakdown Targets Target 1: $45,000 Target 2: $38,000 (major weekly structural low) This remains a secondary scenario unless support fails decisively. Disclosure This write-up is for educational and chart-interpretation purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Always manage risk, use proper position sizing, and consult a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AlphapulseAI
2
AUDUSD Weekly Smart Money Map As Liquidity Shifts Control Price AUDUSD has completed a strong impulsive expansion from the accumulation base and is now transitioning into a distribution–rebalancing phase. The current price action shows Smart Money shifting from aggressive markup into controlled liquidity rotation, with price respecting clear premium and discount boundaries rather than trending freely. The prior bullish leg has already achieved its objective: buy-side liquidity above structure highs has been tapped, inefficiencies have been filled, and price is now reacting inside a corrective framework — a classic SMC environment favoring fade-at-zones, not breakout chasing. 🌐 Market Context (This Week’s Hot AUD News) AUDUSD volatility this week is driven by: Ongoing USD sensitivity ahead of US CPI & Fed speakers Shifting risk sentiment tied to equities and China-related data RBA maintaining a cautious stance, limiting AUD upside momentum Market positioning favoring mean reversion and liquidity grabs This macro backdrop supports range-based Smart Money execution, not trend continuation. 📊 Market Structure & Liquidity Read Accumulation → impulsive rally already completed Buy-side liquidity above recent highs partially consumed Price now reacting from premium into a corrective pullback Clear HTF discount zone aligned with prior breakout base Premium zone above acting as a liquidity inducement area Smart Money Logic: Induce at premium → rotate lower to rebalance → decide next expansion. 🔑 Key Weekly Trading Scenarios 🟢 Discount Buy Setup — Smart Money Re-Accumulation BUY AUDUSD: 0.69125 – 0.68970 SL: 0.68356 Confluence: HTF demand & breakout retest zone Sell-side liquidity pool below range lows Corrective leg completion area Execution rule: Only enter after LTF bullish CHoCH / BOS confirmation. Expectation: Reaction from discount → rotation back toward equilibrium / premium. 🔴 Premium Sell Setup — Liquidity Fade SELL AUDUSD: 0.70942 – 0.71150 SL: 0.71480 Confluence: Premium pricing after impulsive move Prior buy-side liquidity zone Potential distribution / exhaustion area Expectation: Rejection from premium → pullback toward discount liquidity. Bias & Execution Notes Weekly bias: Rotational, liquidity-driven Avoid breakout chasing Let price deliver into Smart Money zones Confirmation > anticipation AUDUSD is not trending randomly this week — it’s rotating where liquidity is most vulnerable.
Short
by Wendy_Grace
2
ETHUSD Trend Shift: Bullish CHoCH from Demand ZoneETHUSD on the 2H timeframe is coming out of a strong descending channel after tapping a clear demand zone near the lows. The market printed a bullish CHoCH (change of character), signaling a potential short-term trend reversal. Price is now consolidating around the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting early accumulation, with upside room toward the first resistance/target area around the 2,400 zone. Overall bias shifts from strong bearish momentum to a cautious bullish recovery while price holds above the demand base.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Alpha_Trade_Scope
2
SPX: Zoomed out context for the coming week SPX remains range-bound on higher time frames, with price rotating between clear weekly levels rather than trending cleanly. Last week we sold off for three days into the lower weekly band around 6,766 to 6,790, and then buyers stepped in strong on Friday, which showed continued demand at the bottom of this range. Now the focus shifts to follow-through, because what happens as price pushes back toward 6,988 to 7,000 is going to tell us whether we are just rotating inside the range again, or whether the market is starting to build a new higher weekly zone. Scenario 1: Buying continues, then stalls at 6,988 to 7,000 A push into 6,988 to 7,000 Failure to hold above that zone on the daily Rotation back down toward 6,766 to 6,790 Scenario 2: We break the lower weekly band, deeper range opens Price losing 6,766 Follow-through selling after the break, rather than an immediate reclaim Risk of a weekly or multi-week move toward 6,525 Scenario 3: Bulls stay in charge, acceptance above 7,000 Sustained hold above 6,988 to 7,000 Pullbacks staying supported (higher lows) above the prior upper band Higher weekly range behavior, where we stop revisiting the lower band as easily
SP:SPX
by emanuelaelias