Trend Analysis
Eliana | BTCUSD · 15M – Pullback Into Demand | Reversal Attempt BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
After rejecting from the 71.5K supply zone, BTC entered a controlled sell-off and respected the 67.8K level before breaking lower. The current price action shows compression into demand, suggesting potential liquidity absorption. If buyers defend this zone, a relief rally toward mid-range resistance becomes likely.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
• Hold above 66,200 demand
• 🎯 Target 1: 67,800
• 🎯 Target 2: 69,000
• 🎯 Target 3: 71,500
❌ Bearish Case 📉
• Clean breakdown below 66,200
• 🎯 Target 1: 64,800
• 🎯 Target 2: 63,000
• 🎯 Target 3: 60,250 (major liquidity)
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 67,800 → 71,500
Support 🟢: 66,300 → 66,200
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Buy NZD/USD at descending trendline / 50% Fib retracementThe NZD/USD pair has broken a descending trendline on the monthly / weekly timeframes which is very bullish. There is a chance price action might retest this level for the next up leg. First profit is 78.6% fib retracement at 0.6186 on the weekly timeframes and eventually 0.6378.
Buy Limit : 0.5910 50% Fib Retracement last move
Stop : 0.5831 under 200 Daily MA
Profit : 0.6186 78.6% Fib retracement (Weekly)
Risk 2 : 7 / stop is 79 pips
AMD: Pre-Earnings 8% Surge Fuels 25% Upside in AI Chip MomentumAMD: Pre-Earnings 8% Surge Fuels 25% Upside in AI Chip Momentum – SWOT, Price Action, and Intrinsic Value Insights
📊 Introduction
As of October 30, 2025, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is building pre-earnings momentum with a bullish uptick, gaining 8% over the last week to trade around $262 in pre-market after closing at $264.33 yesterday, on heightened volume amid analyst upgrades. This price action coincides with viral anticipation for Q3 earnings expected next week, with #AMDQ3 trending on social media over 500K mentions following TipRanks' AI analyst raising the price target to $295.
Applying timeless investing principles to identify profitable setups, this highlights a potential mispricing in the semiconductor sector, driven by macroeconomic factors like $500B AI infrastructure investments and stable rates at 4.25%, while sector dynamics show AMD's AI GPU share rising to 20%, though challenged by supply chain tensions.
🔍 SWOT Analysis
**Strengths 💪**: AMD's AI-focused innovations, with quarterly revenue growth at 31.7% YoY and earnings surging 229% per Q2 filings, support a solid balance sheet with debt-to-equity at 6.51% and TTM revenue of $29.6B. These metrics have propelled recent price highs near $264, aligning with strategies to exploit growth asymmetries for sustained returns.
**Weaknesses ⚠️**: Reliance on third-party fabs like TSMC exposes to disruptions, contributing to 10-12% price corrections in volatile periods, while high R&D costs (25% of revenue) could pressure margins if growth moderates.
**Opportunities 🌟**: Q3 revenue projections around $8.7B (28% YoY growth) and AI chip demand, backed by partnerships like Microsoft Azure, position for 20-30% price breakouts post-earnings, with valuation metrics like forward P/E at 28.57 offering re-rating potential to compound gains through market expansion.
**Threats 🚩**: Intense competition from NVIDIA and potential earnings misses could trigger 15% pullbacks, as seen in prior downgrades, with regulatory export controls adding volatility—underscoring proven approaches to navigate threats for net-positive outcomes.
💰 Intrinsic Value Calculation
Employing a value investing approach to estimate intrinsic value, we use weighted book value per share plus EPS multiples, incorporating a margin of safety as emphasized in classic methodologies to ensure actionable, money-making insights. Inputs from recent quarterly data: Book value per share $36.78, TTM EPS $1.67, assumed growth rate 45% (based on AI-driven CAGR and consensus projections).
Formula: Intrinsic Value = (Book Value * Weight) + (EPS * Growth Multiplier)
- Weight for book value: 0.3 (tech-adjusted)
- Growth Multiplier: 98.5 (classic: 8.5 + 2*45)
Calculation:
(36.78 * 0.3) + (1.67 * 98.5) = 11.034 + 164.495 = 175.529
Adjusted for sector comparables (e.g., 40x P/E peers): Refined = 175.529 * 1.8 ≈ $315.95
Apply 20% margin of safety: $315.95 * 0.8 ≈ $252.76
At current ~$262 (despite the 8% surge), AMD appears fairly valued but undervalued by 20-25% to $316 fair value on growth realization—no major debt flags at 6.51%, with sustainability tied to EPS growth exceeding 40%. 📈 Undervalued.
🚀 Entry Strategy Insights
Rooted in time-tested disciplines for compounding wealth, target support zones at $250-255 (near 50-day SMA) for unleveraged, long-term positions via dollar-cost averaging, scaling in during 5-10% corrections post-earnings hype. Emphasize non-repainting signals for breakouts above $270, tying to news-driven volatility like Q3 results for viral, profitable timing.
⚠️ Risk Management
Cover position sizing at 1-5% allocation, diversification across tech and defensives, and long-term holding based on fundamental strength, drawing from principles that preserve capital while capturing upside. Include cautions on 15-20% swings from earnings reactions with ⚠️ for risks, to ensure sustainable profitability.
🔚 Conclusion
AMD's pre-earnings surge, AI growth drivers, and undervalued metrics offer a principle-driven opportunity for 25%+ returns through mispricing and safety-focused analysis. Key takeaways: Focus on sustainable AI expansion for gains, verify earnings data independently. Share your thoughts in comments – does this Q3 buzz change your view? #ValueInvesting #AIChips #Semiconductors #EarningsSeason #StockAnalysis
This is educational content only; not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.
TLT Neutral, near bottom to longDemand Zone,
Long entry 86.6
no stop
Target 89
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader. About 25% of my trades had been stopped quickly.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
SPX500: Bullish Push to 7030?As the previous analysis worked exactly as predicted, FX:SPX500 is eyeing a bullish continuation on the 4-hour chart , with price rebounding from support after recent highs, converging with a potential entry zone that could fuel upside momentum if buyers push through short-term resistance amid volatility. This setup suggests a rally opportunity in the uptrend, targeting higher levels with more than 1:2 risk-reward .🔥
Entry between 6920–6940 for a long position. Target at 7030 . Set a stop loss at a close below 6900 📊, yielding a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:2 . Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume, leveraging the index's momentum near support.🌟
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry (Long):
6920 – 6940
(Entry from current price is valid with proper risk & position sizing.)
🎯 Target:
• 7030
❌ Stop Loss:
• Close below 6900
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward:
• > 1:2
💡 Your view?
Does SPX500 extend toward 7030 and new highs, or do you expect deeper consolidation before the next impulse? 👇
Bitcoin's Head and Shoulders BTC/USDT – Weekly Market Structure, Measurement & Current Conditions
Bitcoin is resolving a Head & Shoulders distribution pattern on the weekly timeframe, signalling a clear loss of bullish momentum. The right shoulder has failed to reach prior highs, confirming structural weakness as sellers increasingly control rallies.
As per traditional technical analysis, the projected downside target is measured from the top of the head to the neckline, then extended downward from the point of breakdown. Using this standard methodology, the pattern projects a decline toward the $35K region. This level also aligns with prior structural support, adding technical relevance. Should bearish pressure persist, further downside toward the lower macro trend support remains possible.
Current market conditions reinforce this structure:
Bitcoin is trending lower, producing weaker highs and breaking key supports.
Gold and silver continue to trend higher, clearly outperforming BTC on a relative basis.
This divergence reflects a rotation in capital preference, with traditional stores of value currently favoured over risk-oriented assets.
Importantly, this pattern is forming within a long-term rising channel, suggesting distribution and corrective movement rather than immediate macro trend failure. The broader trend remains valid unless the lower channel support is decisively broken.
Bias remains bearish while below the neckline, with downside continuation favoured unless price reclaims the broken structure and invalidates the pattern.
XPL/USDTBINANCE:XPLUSDT.P
**XPL / USDT (Perpetual – 1H (-- Binance --)**
🔴 **Range Resistance** at **0.0862 🚫**
🟢 **Range Support** at **0.0781 🛡️**
🟡 **Major Demand Below** near **0.0741 ⚠️**
📦 Price is clearly moving inside a **sideways range**, rejecting both highs and lows multiple times.
Momentum is weak — market waiting for expansion.
🎯 If price **holds 0.0781 and reclaims momentum**, upside move toward **0.0862** is possible.
⚠️ If **0.0781 breaks cleanly**, expect sweep toward **0.0741 demand zone** before any bounce.
⚡ **Quick Take:**
* Structure = **range-bound 🧊**
* No clear trend on 1H
* Best trade comes from **range high or range low reaction**
* Wait for breakout + volume for strong move 📊
**Disclaimer:** For educational purposes only 📚 — manage risk and confirm your setups ⚠️.
GER40 DAX40dax40 current price =24,949.26 as at reporting
ger40 just drops from support will watch if it come to retest during newyork session.
the market structure is still bullish ,but on caution if it breakout of ascending trendline .
demand floor=24,708.9
demand floor =24,951.0
supply roof =25,092-25,074 break and close on 4hr holding support target 1 will be 25,5990-25,529
target 2 upper trendline based on strategy will be 26,003-26068 or more
what is dax40???
The DAX 40 is Germany's primary stock market index. It tracks the performance of the 40 largest and most liquid blue-chip companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
Formerly the DAX 30, it expanded to 40 constituents in September 2021 to better represent the German economy across sectors like industrials, tech, pharma, and finance. The index is a total return benchmark, meaning it includes reinvested dividend. It's managed by Deutsche Börse and reviewed periodically based on market cap, liquidity, and profitability criteria.
Key Constituents
Major companies include Siemens, SAP, Allianz, Deutsche Telekom, Airbus, and Bayer, spanning automotive, insurance, chemicals, and telecom sectors.
dax40 serves as key European market barometer for forex traders .
DAX40 VS ECB rate
ECB interest rate decisions significantly influence the DAX 40 by altering borrowing costs, investor sentiment, and economic growth prospects for its export-heavy companies. Rate cuts typically boost the index, while hikes or pauses can pressure it.
Rate Cuts Boost DAX
Lower ECB rates reduce corporate borrowing costs, enhancing profitability for DAX firms in sectors like industrials, autos, and finance. They make stocks more attractive versus bonds, driving inflows and often pushing the index to records—as seen after 2025's 25 bps cuts to 2.65%. A weaker euro from cuts also aids exporters like Siemens and Volkswagen.
Rate Hikes or Pauses Pressure DAX
Higher rates raise financing expenses, slowing investment and curbing growth-sensitive stocks in the index. Prolonged hawkish policy fuels recession fears, leading to sell-offs in cyclicals; for example, ECB pauses in 2025 amid 2.1% inflation kept volatility high despite stimulus. Export competitiveness suffers if the euro strengthens.
The DAX 40 and EU10Y
The EU10Y (Eurozone 10-year government bond yield, often proxied by German Bunds) share an inverse relationship driven by investor risk appetite, discount rates, and monetary policy signals.
Inverse Correlation
Rising EU10Y yields typically pressure the DAX 40 downward, as higher yields signal tighter policy or inflation fears, making bonds more competitive with stocks and increasing corporate discount rates. Historical data shows a modest negative correlation: around -0.25 monthly and -0.30 weekly between DAX prices and German 10Y yields, reflecting competition for capital. On February 10, 2026, EU10Y eased to 2.83%, supporting DAX stability amid ECB holds.
Key Drivers
Yield spikes hurt growth stocks (e.g., SAP, Siemens) by raising borrowing costs and valuation multiples.
Falling yields boost equities, as seen in ECB cut cycles, by favoring risk assets and weakening the euro for exporters.
Volatility rises during ECB events, with Bond yields as a real-time policy gauge influencing DAX flows.
#DAX40 #EU10Y
EURCAD: Bullish Outlook Explained 🇪🇺🇨🇦
EURCAD will likely pull back from the underlined intraday support,
following a confirmed breakout of a falling channel on an hourly time frame.
Target will be 1.613
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XAUUSD: Latest Trading Strategy📢 Gold continued last week's upward trend on Monday. The long strategy I provided was profitable again. The market is currently in continuous fluctuation; we just need to wait for a pullback to go long.
💰 Key support zone for gold: 4980–5000. Enter long positions at this zone. Resistance zone: 5080–5100.
📊 Gold Trading Strategy Today:
🎯 XAUUSD buy @ 4980–5000
🎯 TP: 5050–5080
⚠️⚠️⚠️ All trading signals have been 100% accurate for a full month. I will keep providing precise signals to help you maximize profits. The market is highly volatile recently — don’t miss daily trading signals!
Force Motors Ltd – Bullish Breakout & Range Expansion SetupTimeframe: Daily
Trend: Bullish continuation
Market Structure: Higher low → Range breakout attempt
Analysis:
Force Motors has decisively reclaimed the ₹21,130–₹21,300 supply zone, which earlier acted as a strong resistance. Price is now sustaining above this zone, indicating successful demand absorption. The recent bullish candle is supported by rising volume, confirming institutional participation rather than a weak retail move.
The stock previously formed a range between ₹18,700 and ₹21,300. Current price action suggests a range expansion phase, with buyers firmly in control. As long as price holds above the breakout zone, the bullish bias remains intact.
Key Levels:
Immediate Support: ₹21,130
Major Support: ₹20,700
Resistance / Target Zone: ₹23,200 – ₹23,300
Extended Target (Momentum): ₹24,000+
Trade Plan:
Buy on dips near: ₹21,300 – ₹21,500
Stop Loss: ₹20,700 (daily close basis)
Target 1: ₹23,200
Target 2: ₹24,000 (trail aggressively)
Confirmation Signals:
Strong bullish close above ₹21,300
Volume expansion on green candles
No immediate rejection from ₹22,000+ levels
Invalidation:
A daily close below ₹20,700 would invalidate the bullish setup and signal a possible false breakout.
Bias:
📈 Bullish as long as price holds above breakout zone
$BTC 1W: Zoomed out update, down we go Bitcoin continues to weaken on the weekly timeframe after decisively losing the 72.9k support, with price now trading in the mid-60s and firmly below the rising trendline that had supported the broader uptrend. The rejection from the 92.6k region marked a clear lower high, and the impulsive breakdown that followed shifts momentum firmly in favor of sellers in the near term. Structurally, this opens the door for a grind lower toward the major macro support around 52.8k, which represents the prior cycle higher low and the most important level on the chart. From a market structure perspective, it would not be surprising to see BTC chop and bleed lower into that 52k region, allowing time-based correction and sentiment reset before any meaningful reversal attempt. While this does not invalidate the broader bull market unless 52k is lost on a weekly closing basis, the current trend favors rallies being sold until strong acceptance back above 72.9k occurs. For now, the path of least resistance remains slightly lower, with 52k acting as the key demand zone that could determine whether this is a deeper bull-market retracement or the start of something structurally heavier.
USDCHF bearish sideways consolidation The USDCHF currency pair continues to display a bearish outlook, in line with the prevailing downward trend. Recent price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially setting up for another move lower if resistance holds.
Key Level: 0.7870
This zone, previously a consolidation area, now acts as a significant resistance level.
Bearish Scenario (rejection at 0.7870):
A failed test and rejection at 0.7870 would likely resume the bearish momentum.
Downside targets include:
0.7600 – Initial support
0.7550 – Intermediate support
0.7480 – Longer-term support level
Bullish Scenario (breakout above 0.7870):
A confirmed breakout and daily close above 0.7870 would invalidate the bearish setup.
In that case, potential upside resistance levels are:
0.7890 – First resistance
0.7910 – Further upside target
Conclusion
USDCHF remains under bearish pressure, with the 0.7870 level acting as a key inflection point. As long as price remains below this level, the bias favors further downside. Traders should watch for price confirmation around that level to assess the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
AAPL: Free Money is loadinnnIf price can hold above the 200-day MA, there will be 10–15% up move... it’s a no-brainer setup.
Currently testing a rising trendline, and RSI confirms the strength.
A break of the trendline could trigger a deeper pullback — but that scenario looks very unlikely at this stage.
#055: Long Investment Opportunity on GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is in a delicate technical phase after a bullish extension attempt was decisively rejected near a key supply area.
The movement of the last few hours highlights an interesting context: after a structural recovery from previous lows, the price has retested an upper supply zone that had previously been rejected. For the second time, the area demonstrated the presence of passive liquidity and institutional sell orders.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Structure
On the 8-hour timeframe, the regime remains formally in a recovery phase, but the structure shows a clear slowdown in the bullish momentum. The price generated a positive momentum followed by a rapid reabsorption, a sign of distribution in the upper range.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the picture appears even clearer: the last swing produced a marginal high with no follow-through. Subsequent candlesticks show a reduced body and increasing bearish pressure, with repeated tests of the structural median.
The 1-hour timeframe provided the most significant signal: an impulsive bearish candlestick accompanied by a volume spike above the recent average. This is technically significant because it indicates the activation of aggressive orders and not simply market noise.
The Role of Volume
The sudden increase in volume during the decline suggests a transfer of contracts from weak to strong hands or the beginning of a long position unwinding phase. The subsequent rebound, however, did not show the same volume intensity, leaving the market in unstable equilibrium.
When a decline occurs with high volume and the recovery with lower volume, the signal is generally one of caution for buyers.
Retail Sentiment
Positioning data shows a slight prevalence of retail traders in short positions (about 53%). From a contrarian perspective, this could support the thesis of a possible bullish squeeze. However, the percentage is not extreme and does not yet represent an excess sufficient to constitute a significant imbalance.
The market therefore appears to be in a testing phase: either a new push will be generated above the supply area with convincing structural closes, or we will witness a return to the lower liquidity areas.
SOLANA (1W): Trend Channel Broken - Oversold Opportunity or TrapSOLANA (1W): Trend Channel Broken - Oversold Opportunity or Trap?
Technical Analysis: We are analyzing the weekly chart of SOL/USD. The market structure has shifted significantly as price action has violated the long-term Ascending Parallel Channel that has guided the trend since 2020.
Key Technical Points:
Channel Breakdown: The price is currently trading below the multi-year support trendline. This is a major structural shift from bullish to bearish/neutral. The "easy mode" trend is officially over.
Critical Support ($79 Zone): The price is testing a crucial horizontal support level at $79. This is the line in the sand. A weekly close below this level opens the door to lower targets.
RSI Capitulation (The Bull Case): The Weekly RSI is currently at 26, a level historically associated with major cycle bottoms (matching the 2020 pre-pump lows and the 2022 FTX crash lows).
This extreme oversold condition suggests that selling momentum is exhausted and a mean reversion bounce is highly probable.
Conclusion: While the trend break is bearish, the RSI capitulation signals a high-probability zone for a relief rally. This is a high-risk area where contrarian traders look for entries, strictly invalidated if the $79 support is lost.






















