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UnitedHealth Gaps 8% on Q1 Beat — Analysts See $430.UnitedHealth Group just printed its strongest quarterly beat in two years. Q1 2026 EPS came in at $7.23 — beating Wall Street's $6.65 estimate by 9%. The company also raised its full-year profit outlook to more than $18.25 per share (up from $17.75). Revenue hit $111.72 billion. The stock gapped 8.88% at the open, reclaiming its year-to-date breakeven in a single session.
This is not just a beat — it is a structural reset.
Macro Context
The key driver behind the beat: UNH's medical benefit ratio came in at 83.9%, far better than the 85.5% analysts expected. That means UnitedHealth is collecting more in premiums than it is paying out in claims — a margin story, not just a revenue story. On top of that, CMS finalized a 2.48% average payment rate increase for 2027 Medicare Advantage (versus the nearly flat 0.09% proposal that had scared the sector all year). That regulatory tailwind alone is worth multiple turns of multiple expansion.
Three analysts raised price targets today: Morgan Stanley named UNH a Top Pick at $375. Jefferies raised to $373. Piper Sandler hiked to $430.
Technical Analysis
UNH has spent 6 months in a painful drawdown from its $510 ATH (Aug 2024) all the way to $245 in March 2026 — a 52% peak-to-trough decline that priced in a worst-case regulatory and medical cost scenario. Today's earnings print confirms the worst-case did not happen.
The gap-up from $324 to $352 breaks above the January 2026 consolidation zone at $340-$355, which is now the entry zone. The 200-day SMA is declining near $370 — reclaiming it would be the next major technical confirmation signal. RSI on the daily has reset from 28 (oversold) to 62 — plenty of room before overbought.
Key levels:
Stop: $316 — below the gap-open support and the pre-earnings close. If price fills the gap completely, the thesis is wrong.
Entry zone: $340–$355 — current trading range, gap consolidation base.
TP1: $375 — Morgan Stanley and Jefferies consensus target, 200-day SMA reclaim.
TP2: $400 — round number, pre-correction resistance level.
TP3: $430 — Piper Sandler bull-case target, measured recovery from the 2026 lows.
Trade Plan
Direction: Long
Entry: $340–$355
Stop: $316
Target 1: $375 (R:R 1:1.4)
Target 2: $400 (R:R 1:2.2)
Target 3: $430 (R:R 1:3.3)
Timeframe: 4–10 weeks
Risk / Invalidation
Thesis breaks if UNH fills the earnings gap back below $320 on a daily close — that signals institutions are selling into the strength and the beat was already priced in. Also watch for any CMS policy reversal or surprise medical cost spike in the coming weeks.
Educational Takeaway
Earnings gap-ups on high-quality defensive names like UNH are among the most reliable post-event setups in the market. The key distinction: was the gap on BEAT + RAISE + CATALYST SHIFT? If yes, the gap is a new base, not a fade target. UNH today checks all three boxes — beat, raised guidance, AND a regulatory tailwind that changes the multi-year earnings trajectory. That combination makes this a buy-the-gap, not sell-the-gap setup. Long 
UNH (UnitedHealth Group) — Q1 Earnings Beat + Guidance Raise**💡 UNH (UnitedHealth Group) — Q1 Earnings Beat + Guidance Raise: Healthcare Bellwether Signals Strong Rebound**
**SECTION 1 — Executive Summary** 💼
UnitedHealth Group delivered a decisive Q1 2026 earnings beat with adjusted EPS of $7.23 (versus ~$6.57 consensus) and revenue of $111.7 billion (+2% YoY), while raising full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to >$18.25 amid disciplined pricing, cost controls, and Optum optimization. This mega-cap healthcare leader offers compelling value as it navigates medical cost pressures and regulatory scrutiny with a clear path to margin recovery and diversified growth. Overall rating: Buy. 12-month price target: $360 (blended DCF/comps methodology using normalized medical loss ratios and Optum contribution). The single biggest reason to own this stock right now is UnitedHealth’s unmatched scale across insurance and services (Optum), positioning it to capture long-term healthcare spending tailwinds while executing a proven turnaround plan. The single biggest risk remains elevated medical costs and Medicare Advantage reimbursement dynamics.
**SECTION 2 — Business Overview** 🏢
UnitedHealth Group is the largest healthcare company in the United States, operating through two primary platforms: UnitedHealthcare (insurance and benefits) and Optum (health services, pharmacy care, and technology). Revenue breakdown (FY 2025): UnitedHealthcare ~77% (insurance premiums and fees), Optum ~23% but with higher margins and faster growth in value-based care, PBM, and data/analytics (sourced from company FY 2025 results released Jan 27 2026). Business model generates revenue primarily from health insurance premiums, service fees, and pharmacy/Optum contracts, with strong repeat revenue from long-term employer and government contracts plus recurring Optum platform usage. Competitive moat derives from massive scale (serving ~50 million via UnitedHealthcare and 123+ million via Optum in 2025), proprietary data assets, integrated care delivery, and network effects that are extremely difficult for competitors to replicate at similar efficiency.
**SECTION 3 — Financial Deep Dive** 📈
Key metrics (Q1 2026 reported April 21 2026; FY 2025 from Jan 27 2026 release; TTM derived from quarterly data):
Revenue: $111.7 billion (Q1 2026, +2% YoY); FY 2025 $447.6 billion (+12% YoY).
Net income: Implied from EPS; Q1 GAAP EPS $6.90.
EPS (adjusted): $7.23 (Q1 2026, beat by ~66 cents).
Margins: Medical care ratio pressured but stabilizing; operating margin recovering.
Free cash flow: Strong at $8.9 billion in Q1 2026 (1.4x net income).
YoY growth rates: Revenue +2% (Q1); FY 2025 revenue +12%.
Balance sheet health: Debt-to-capital ratio 42.9% (March 31 2026); cash flow supportive of leverage targets.
Cash flow quality: Operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income (1.4-1.5x ratio).
Capital allocation: Focus on R&D/AI investments (~$1.5 billion planned 2026), debt reduction to ~40% target, dividends, and selective M&A while resuming buybacks in H2 2026.
**SECTION 4 — Growth Analysis** 🚀
Total addressable market (TAM): U.S. healthcare spending projected to exceed $6 trillion by 2030 (CMS estimates via industry reports). Current market share: Leading position in Medicare Advantage and commercial insurance; Optum dominant in PBM and value-based care. Key growth drivers next 3-5 years: Optum expansion in AI-enabled care, pharmacy services, and data analytics; UnitedHealthcare focus on employer and government segments with pricing discipline. Management raised 2026 guidance post-Q1 beat, signaling more bullish outlook than prior consensus; growth increasingly organic through technology leverage and portfolio optimization rather than acquisition-dependent.
**SECTION 5 — Valuation** 📊
DCF analysis: Base case assumes mid-single-digit revenue CAGR, expanding operating margins to 5.5%+, WACC ~9%, terminal growth 3% . Implied value supports $360 target. Comparable company analysis (peers as of April 2026): CI ~12-14x forward P/E; ELV, HUM, CNC at 10-13x; UNH trades at premium but justified by scale. Historical valuation range (5-year): Forward P/E 18-25x. Bull target $420 (accelerated Optum AI gains); Base $360; Bear $280 (prolonged cost pressures). Current price ~$280-300 offers 20-30% upside to base target.
**SECTION 6 — Risk Analysis** ⚠️
1. Medical cost trend escalation (high probability/medium impact): Triggered by utilization spikes; watch quarterly medical loss ratio updates.
2. Regulatory changes in Medicare Advantage (medium-high): Reimbursement cuts or policy shifts; monitor CMS announcements.
3. Optum contract losses or margin compression (medium): Strategic exits noted; track segment earnings.
4. Cyber or operational disruptions (medium): Legacy from 2024-2025 events; monitor investment disclosures.
5. Macro healthcare spending slowdown (low-medium): Economic factors; watch employment data.
Short interest low; insider activity shows typical patterns with no major red flags. No new accounting quality flags noted in latest filings.
**SECTION 7 — Catalyst Calendar** 📅
Next earnings date: Already reported Q1 on April 21 2026 (conference call today at 8:00 AM ET). Upcoming events: Optum AI and technology updates throughout 2026; potential Medicare bid outcomes. Macro events: Federal budget/health policy decisions impacting reimbursement. 12-month timeline: Q2 earnings July 2026, continued membership adjustments, and leverage reduction milestones.
**SECTION 8 — Technical Analysis** 📈
Primary Chart: Daily timeframe, 1-year view shows UNH consolidating in the $270-300 zone after 2025-2026 volatility, with today’s post-earnings reaction pushing toward recent highs. Price action recently crossed above the 50-day moving average while holding above key support; RSI (14) moving out of oversold territory with bullish MACD crossover and expanding volume. Major support zone $260-270, resistance $310-320. Visible setup: Potential inverse head-and-shoulders base with higher lows since February. Technical implication: Bullish bias confirmed by earnings catalyst with room for near-term continuation if volume sustains.
**SECTION 9 — The Verdict** 🏆
Bull case ($420 target, 30 percent probability): Faster-than-expected margin recovery and Optum AI acceleration drive re-rating.
Base case ($360 target, 50 percent probability): Steady execution on guidance with controlled medical costs.
Bear case ($280 target, 20 percent probability): Persistent cost pressures or regulatory headwinds cap upside.
Expected value calculation: Probability-weighted price target = $366. Final recommendation: Buy with High conviction. The 30-second elevator pitch: UnitedHealth just proved it can deliver despite industry challenges — with a Q1 beat, raised guidance, and unmatched scale across insurance and services, the stock offers attractive risk/reward as healthcare spending grows and margins normalize.
**Sources**
UnitedHealth Group press release April 21 2026 (Q1 2026 results); company FY 2025 results Jan 27 2026; Reuters/Seeking Alpha/Zacks earnings coverage April 21 2026; Yahoo Finance/TradingView charts and data as of April 21 2026; CMS healthcare spending projections.
What are your thoughts on UNH? Drop them below 👇
#UNH #UnitedHealth #HealthcareStocks #Q1Earnings #EarningsBeat #Optum #MedicareAdvantage #StockMarket #HealthcareTurnaround #BuyTheDip Long 
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UNH: adding into fear after a completed ABC correctionThesis
NYSE:UNH has completed its corrective ABC structure and is stabilizing within Wave 2, offering long-term accumulation opportunities in a proven cash-flow compounder.
Context
- Daily and weekly timeframes
- Deep corrective phase already completed
- Long-term uptrend remains intact on the weekly chart
- Dividend-paying, high free-cash-flow defensive name
What I see
- Yesterday’s selloff was headline-driven, not structural
- Price is holding inside the Wave 2 retracement zone
- Volatility is shaking out weak hands, not breaking structure
- This behavior is typical at the end of corrective phases
- I added to my long-term position yesterday, bringing my average into the $270s
What matters now
- The priority is stabilization and base-building
- A reclaim of the 50-day MA improves short-term structure
- Reclaiming the 200-day MA confirms the next impulsive leg
- Gap-filling narratives are noise, not a strategy
Buy / Accumulation zone
- Accumulation remains valid inside the current Wave 2 range
- I have no issue adding again once price stabilizes
- Risk is defined against the recent correction lows
Targets
- First major structural reference: 200-week MA near $460
- Wave 3 target remains the 1.618 Fib extension around $540
- Dividend yield (~2.6%) pays while waiting
Execution note
- This game isn’t for everyone — pressure exposes conviction
- I added at $250 and $240 when sentiment was darkest
- Buffett added at higher prices, yet fear returned instantly
- NYSE:UNH is my current safe-haven: strong FCF, cash-rich, defensive
This is a 3–5 year hold for me, not a short-term trade Long 
UNITED HEALTH on its 2009 Support. Can it be saved or $175 is neUnited Health (UNH) almost hit in August its 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), a Support level that is intact since March 2009 and the aftermath of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis.
Since the Dotcom Crash, the stock has been trading within a multi-year Channel Up and the recent correction since the November 2024 All Time High (ATH), is technically its second Bearish Leg since the 2008 Housing Crisis.
The latter eventually dipped below the 1M MA200 and bottomed a little after on the 1M MA200 (red trend-line). Based on the 1M RSI, which hit the 30.00 oversold level and rebounded, the market may be in levels similar to July - August 2008. As a result, there is a high chance of breaking again below the 1M MA200 and if that happens, expect a bottom on the 1M MA200 again at $175, which would also be a -75.80% correction from the ATH, similar to the 2008 Bear Cycle. Only a break above the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) can restore the bullish trend, which has been intact non-stop from October 2010 to April 2025.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 Short 
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UNH Stock Technical Outlook – Bullish Momentum Confirmed😎 UNH Wealth Heist: Swing Trade Strategy Map 🤑💰
Asset: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated ( NYSE:UNH )
Market: US Stock
Market Strategy: Swing Trade (Thief Style 🕵️♂️)
📈 The Setup: Bullish Breakout in Sight! 🚀
Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the Thief OG playbook! 📖 NYSE:UNH is setting up for a potential bullish run, and we’re ready to layer our entries like masterminds! 🧠 Here’s the breakdown of this sneaky swing trade setup:
🌟 Bullish Trend Confirmation: The chart is screaming uptrend! We’ve got strong upside pressure from a demand zone 📍, signaling buyers are ready to pounce.
✨ Golden Cross Alert: The Hull Moving Average (HMA) at 786 periods has crossed above the price candles, confirming a bullish momentum shift. 🚀
🐍 Re-accumulation Phase: The stock is consolidating, building energy for the next leg up. It’s like NYSE:UNH is coiling for a big breakout! 💥
🕵️♂️ Entry Plan: The Thief Layering Strategy 🎯
We’re not just entering; we’re layering our entries like pros! 😎 The Thief Strategy uses multiple buy limit orders to scale into the trade with precision. Here’s how to set it up:
📊 Entry Levels: Place buy limit orders at $320.00, $330.00, $340.00, $350.00.
Pro Tip: Feel free to add more layers based on your risk appetite and account size! More layers = more chances to catch the move.
🔍 Why Layering?: This method spreads your entry across key support levels, reducing risk and maximizing potential. It’s like planting multiple traps for profits! 🪤
🛑 Stop Loss: Protect Your Loot! 🔒
🛡️ Thief Stop Loss: Set a stop loss at $300.00.
📝 Note: Dear Thief OGs, this is my suggested stop loss, but it’s your heist! Adjust based on your risk tolerance. Take the money and run at your own discretion! 😏
🎯 Target: Cashing Out Like a Boss 💸
💰 Profit Target: Aim for $420.00, where the Simple Moving Average (SMA) acts as a strong resistance.
⚠️ Why This Level?: The SMA has historically capped rallies, and we’re seeing signs of overbought conditions with a potential trap for late buyers. Escape with your profits before the trap springs! 🏃♂️
📝 Note: As always, Thief OGs, this is my suggested target. You decide when to pocket the gains — it’s your heist, your rules! 😎
👀 Related Pairs to Watch 🔎
To keep your eyes on the market’s pulse, here are correlated assets to monitor alongside NYSE:UNH :
📈 NYSE:CI (Cigna Corporation): Another healthcare giant, often moves in tandem with NYSE:UNH due to sector trends. Watch for similar bullish setups or divergences. 🩺
📊 NYSE:HUM (Humana Inc.): A key player in the health insurance space, showing high correlation with $UNH. If NYSE:HUM breaks out, it could confirm NYSE:UNH ’s move. 🚀
📡 AMEX:XLV (Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund): This ETF tracks the broader healthcare sector. A bullish AMEX:XLV strengthens the case for NYSE:UNH ’s rally. 🌟
Key Correlation Point: NYSE:UNH , NYSE:CI , and NYSE:HUM often react to healthcare policy news, earnings cycles, and sector sentiment. Keep an eye on AMEX:XLV for broader sector confirmation. If AMEX:XLV is pumping, NYSE:UNH is likely to follow! 📊💥
📝 Final Notes for the Heist
This setup is designed for Thief OG traders who love a calculated, stylish swing trade. The layering strategy gives you flexibility, the bullish signals provide confidence, and the target keeps it profitable. But always remember: trade at your own risk, and don’t get caught in the market’s traps! 😜
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
Disclaimer: This is a Thief Style trading strategy, crafted for fun and educational purposes. Always do your own research and manage your risk. Trading involves risks, and I’m not responsible for any losses. Stay sharp, Thief OGs! 🕵️♂️
#UNH #SwingTrade #LayeredEntry #ThiefStrategy #StockMarket #HealthcareStocks #TradingIdeas #BullTrend #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldenCross #MarketWealthMap #TradingView Long 
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UnitedHealth: Deeply oversold but worth a closer lookUnitedHealth (UNH) is the largest private healthcare company in America. Eight million Medicare Advantage members. Optum’s network reaches tens of millions more. It has the data, the reach, and the pricing power. At today’s valuation, it’s worth adding to your watchlist. Forward P/E at 11× versus a five-year average of 14×. Price-to-sales at 0.6×. RSI at levels not seen in decades. Oversold. Under-owned.
Mispriced? Potentially. We must make it very clear that there could be more downside. But upside is also worth considering.
The AI angle is real. UNH’s health data trove is unmatched. AI can strip billions in waste, automating claims, flagging fraud, predicting costly illnesses before they happen. This isn’t science fiction. It’s execution. Done right, it builds margins and widens the moat. Few can play at this scale. UNH can.
Healthcare as a sector trades 20-30% cheaper than the S&P 500. Aging demographics and chronic care demand are long-term tailwinds. A re-rating here could be swift and brutal for anyone short.
Now, the problems. Medical costs are spiking. Medicare Advantage margins are squeezed. Guidance was pulled, and that spooked the market. Leadership turnover added uncertainty.
These are real headwinds. But they’re fixable.
Premium hikes are already being set for 2026. Stephen Hemsley, the architect of UNH’s prior growth, is back. He’s cutting, reviewing, and bringing in outside talent.
Price implications? The market is pricing in permanent damage. That’s why you can buy a market leader at a crisis multiple. If margins recover and AI efficiencies kick in, this stock doesn’t just bounce, it re-rates. The gap from 11× to 14× earnings on UNH’s scale is tens of billions in market cap.
The bear pit is noisy. The bull case is quiet. But it’s there, and it’s strong. Stop losses are important to manage more downside risk.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice. Long 
Long 
UnitedHealth (UNH) Shares Plunge Following Earnings ReportUnitedHealth (UNH) Shares Plunge Following Earnings Report
Yesterday, prior to the opening of the main trading session, UnitedHealth released its quarterly results along with forward guidance. As a result, UNH shares dropped by over 7%, signalling deep disappointment among market participants. According to media reports:
→ Earnings per share came in at $4.08, missing analysts’ expectations of $4.48.
→ Revenue guidance was set at $445.5–448 billion, falling short of the anticipated $449.07 billion.
→ Concerns were further fuelled by rising costs and declining profitability, which the company attributed to the continued impact of Medicare funding cuts.
Consequently, the UNH share price dropped to its lowest level of 2025, last seen on 15 May.
Technical Analysis of UNH Stock Chart
In our end-of-May analysis, we updated the descending channel on the UNH stock chart and highlighted that following the recovery from the May low (marked by arrow 1), sellers could regain control. Since then:
→ Throughout June, the share price exhibited signs of supply-demand equilibrium around the psychological $300 level.
→ However, after an unsuccessful rally that formed peak A (which now resembles a bull trap), the balance shifted in favour of the bears. The price began to slide lower along the median line of the descending channel (illustrated by arrow 2).
This pattern was a red flag, particularly against the backdrop of a broadly rising equity market since the beginning of summer. Even if the bulls had hope, yesterday's candle could have completely extinguished it:
→ The session opened with a wide bearish gap.
→ During the day, bulls attempted a recovery, but failed — the candlestick closed at the daily low, leaving a long upper wick, a classic sign of selling pressure.
In this context, we could assume that:
→ Bears may seek to extend their advantage and test the year’s low;
→ The bearish gap area (highlighted in purple), reinforced by the descending channel’s median line, could act as resistance during any potential recovery.
At the same time, the $250 psychological level appears to be a strong support zone. This is backed by the 15 May bullish pin bar formed on record trading volumes — a potential sign of institutional interest in accumulating shares of this healthcare giant in anticipation of a long-term recovery.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice. My UNH Thesis: Betting on a Healthcare Giant's Come BackThe healthcare sector has been in decline, which creates interesting opportunities. I recently talked about a few pharma plays - Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer.
Here's why I'm investing in NYSE:UNH :
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has tanked ~50% in the past year, but the July 29 (VERY SOON) earnings could flip the script. As a historically dominant player, UNH is now undervalued amid sector weakness, offering massive upside if regulatory fears ease.
Here's my full bull case. 👇 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Why the Sell-Off? A Perfect Storm of Bad News
UNH crushed the market for 15 straight years (2009-2023) with positive returns, predictable EPS growth, and 134% gains over the last decade.
But 2024 brought chaos:
Feb: Massive cyber attack caused a one-time EPS hit (non-recurring).
Ongoing: DOJ antitrust probe, criminal fraud investigation, rising Medicare costs, and Optum losses.
April: Disastrous Q1 earnings miss + lowered guidance.
Leadership drama: CEO death.
This erased gains (down 7% over 5 years), amplified by healthcare sector outflows—the biggest since 2020. But is this overblown? Signs point to yes. The markets almost always overreact to bad news.
Bullish Signals: Insiders Betting Big
The tide is turning:
Insider Buying Boom: $32M+ in 2024 (vs. $6.6M in 2019), including new CEO/CFO—highest in 15 years.
Congress Buying: Q2 2024 saw net purchases for the first time in 5 years (vs. historical selling).
DOJ Shift: Probe refocusing on pharmacy benefits (PBM) unit, dropping acquisition/monopoly scrutiny—implies no major findings. Great news!
Sector Tailwinds: Healthcare is one of 3 S&P sectors below historical valuations. Super investors (usually tech-obsessed) are piling in, despite the sector's -10% YTD vs. S&P's +13%.
Plus, UNH's dividend yield is at a record ~3% (vs. 1.5% avg), with 16%+ historical growth and 100%+ free cash flow conversion. Rare combo of yield + growth!
Valuation: Screaming Buy?
UNH trades at PE ~11.9 (vs. 10-year avg 23)—a steal.
Analysts project 16.7% EPS CAGR through 2029.
Conservative Scenario: 16.5% EPS growth + PE to 16.5 = $780/share by 2030 (173% total return, 18% CAGR ex-dividends).
Optimistic: PE back to 23 = $1,084/share (280% return).
Models confirm:
DCF (8% FCF growth): ~$484/share (70% upside).
DDM (7% div growth): ~$607/share (112% upside).
Blended Fair Value: ~$545/share (75-90% upside from ~$300). Buy below $436 for 20% safety margin.
Still, there is fear of DOJ uncertainty—investors hate unpredictability and that's why the stock is so low.
Key Catalyst: July 29 Earnings
This could be UNH's "most important report ever." Watch for:
Regulatory/legal updates (DOJ progress).
Full-year guidance revisions.
Metrics like medical loss ratio and PBM performance.
Positive news = potential rocket 🚀. Expectations are low (20 bearish EPS revisions vs. 0 bullish), so a beat could spark volatility... upward.
Risks: Not Without Bumps
Regulatory escalation (e.g., PBM issues) could tank it further.
Short-term headwinds: Medicare costs, sector selling.
Mitigants: DOJ de-risking, strong FCF buffer, insider confidence. Enter cautiously—size positions small.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
I also did a little technical analysis:
UNH price is at a resistance level
My EVaR indicator tells me we are in a low-risk area
RSI says the stock is oversold
I added the different price targets for better visualization
THE PLAN
My plan:
Later today, I will allocate 1% to 1.5% of my portfolio to the stock. If it drops, I will continue to DCA. The stock is already really beaten down, and I think a company this large cannot drop much more.
Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊 Long 
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