USOIL | Oil Holds Firm as US Inventory Draw Offsets Easing Risk Macro approach:
- Oil prices held broadly steady after US President Trump suggested that military operations could be short-lived, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
- Meanwhile, EIA data showed a further drawdown in US crude inventories, reinforcing signs of tighter near-term supply conditions. The latest report showed crude stocks fell by 4.45 mln barrels, against expectations for a small build.
- Oil prices may remain supported by tighter US inventories, although reduced geopolitical risk could limit further upside.
Technical approach:
- After a modest correction toward the support at 87.70, USOIL rebounced toward near the swing high. The price is above both diverging bullish EMAs, suggesting a potential uptrend continuation.
- If USOIL breaks above 89.90, the price may surge toward the next resistance at 92.00.
- Conversely, remaining below 89.90 may prompt a correction toward the immediate support at 87.70 and EMA21.
Analysis by: Quoc Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness 
Long
Crude at 96: War Premium Exit or Dip Worth Buying? War Premium Unwinds, But the Strait Is Still Shut
The single biggest driver of crude over the past several months has been the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. At its peak in early April, Brent crude surged above $140 per barrel, the highest since 2008, as the conflict removed an estimated 12 to 15 million barrels per day from global supply and triggered record inventory drawdowns. The IEA noted that cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceeded 1 billion barrels, with more than 14 million barrels per day shut in. The EIA reported that the US made its single largest-ever weekly drawdown from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in mid-May, underscoring just how tight the physical market became.
The story in May, however, shifted dramatically toward diplomacy. Reports emerged that the US and Iran had "mostly agreed" to a 60-day memorandum of understanding that would pause hostilities, sending Brent down roughly 19% for the month, its worst monthly performance since the COVID-19 pandemic. By May 29, Brent settled near $92.56. That peace optimism has since proven fragile. Iran subsequently halted ceasefire talks, fresh strikes were reported on Kuwait and Oman in early June, and Iran's Foreign Minister stated there had been "no tangible progress" despite ongoing back-channel messaging via mediators. WTI has since bounced back above $90 on renewed geopolitical risk premium.
On the supply side, OPEC+ approved a largely symbolic 188,000 barrel-per-day production hike for June on May 3, with Saudi Arabia signaling further similar-sized increases are possible. However, these additions are meaningless so long as Gulf producers cannot physically export through Hormuz. The UAE, meanwhile, exited OPEC+ entirely. The IEA reaffirmed a significant 2026 global surplus outlook contingent on Hormuz reopening, a condition that remains unresolved. In correlated markets, the DXY traded near 99 to 100 at end of May, holding near two-month highs on safe-haven demand and higher-for-longer Fed pricing after US headline CPI hit 3.8% in April. Equities are under pressure, with the S&P 500 trading near 7,383 and the Nasdaq off over 4% on the week. A stronger dollar and weakening risk appetite are headwinds for crude demand narratives, even as supply fears keep a floor under prices.
What the Market Has Done
Since April, the market has been compressing with higher lows and lower highs, forming a textbook symmetrical contraction as the market digested the initial war shock and the subsequent peace-deal-driven sell-off.
In May, price stabilized into a sideways range between 105 (daily level 1) and 86 (daily level 2), with participants on both sides unwilling to commit directionally amid the ceasefire noise.
May closed with a double distribution profile on the volume profile, reflecting two distinct areas of accepted value and signaling the market is in a balancing phase rather than a trending one.
Recently in the last week, sellers have stepped down to the 96 area, which aligns with May's Low Value Area (LVA) and VPOC, suggesting the short side has found an area of interest and is probing for acceptance below the upper distribution.
What to Expect in the Coming Weeks
Key levels to watch are 86 (daily level 2) and the 96 area (May LVA / VPOC).
Neutral Scenario.
If buyers continue defending 86 while sellers maintain offers around 96, expect a two way balanced auction as the market continues establishing value before its next directional resolution.
A possible trigger could be a continued diplomatic stalemate on the Hormuz deal, where neither a full ceasefire nor a re-escalation materializes, leaving markets in a geopolitical holding pattern.
Bearish Scenario
If buyers fail to defend 86, expect acceptance below Daily Level 2 and a move toward 77, which represents Daily Level 3.
Acceptance below 86 would suggest that buyers are no longer willing to defend the lower end of the current range and that the market is seeking value lower.
A possible trigger could be a confirmed ceasefire deal or the formal reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, releasing pent-up supply and collapsing the geopolitical risk premium rapidly.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers reclaim and establish acceptance above the 96 area, expect a move back toward 105, which remains Daily Level 1.
Reclaiming 96 would signal that buyers have regained control of the upper distribution and that the market is prepared to continue rotating higher within the broader 105 to 86 range.
A possible trigger could be a breakdown of ceasefire talks combined with fresh strikes on Gulf infrastructure, reigniting supply fears and sending the risk premium sharply higher.
Conclusion
Crude oil is caught between two powerful and opposing forces. On one hand, the physical market remains deeply undersupplied as the Strait of Hormuz stays restricted, with global inventories drawing down at a record pace and no credible timeline for normalization. On the other side, the diplomatic noise around a potential US-Iran deal has already slapped nearly 20% off the highs in a single month, demonstrating just how violently risk premium can exit this market. Structurally, price is compressing at the May LVA/VPOC around 96, with 86 as the critical line in the sand for bulls and 105 as the ceiling sellers are defending. Whether 86 holds or breaks will be the defining trade of the coming weeks. The geopolitical tape is trading faster than any chart. The ceasefire crowd already took 20% off the highs. If they are wrong and Hormuz stays shut, 105 could come back on the table fast. Which side of this are you on?
D isclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. This content is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Trade your own plan and manage risk.
Acronyms:
C - Composite
w - Weekly
m - Monthly
VA - Value Area
VAH - Value Area High
VAL - Value Area Low
VPOC - Volume Point of Control
LVN - Low Value Node
LVA - Low Value Area
HVN - High Value Node
HVA - High Value Area
SP - Single print
ATH - All time high
Copper shortHi guys!
Considering that I think copper has behaved more normally than gold and silver in recent months, I preferred to collaborate with him.🤷♂️
So...I think that given the fact that the situation between Iran and the US has calmed down a bit, or at least instead of physical fighting they are engaged in verbal and economic battles, in any case... the situation will get better for the US dollar (unlike the Iranian rial), at least in the short term Until the situation changes.
Considering these facts, which are created by my not-so-wise mind😁, It is better to consider a few technical facts as well.
Well, um... currently we are in an bullish daily trend. I agree with this.👍 But☝ I think we've climbed enough, isn't it enough? 🙄🤔(tired bulls, waiting bears). So😎, to give credibility to my theory, let's take a look at the latest high on the daily timeframe.🧐 In my opinion, in that last case, the bulls were terrible. They ruined it.🤦♂️
So... you can see my Entry area
SL : it's a bit too big, I don't really like it.
TP1 : It's not very attractive; maybe I won't use it myself.
: My favourite!
TP3 : The dramatic one.
Short
XAUUSD Bullish Above 4720 as USD Stays Under Pressure!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GOLD for a buying opportunity around the 4,720 zone. GOLD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which price is approaching the trendline support around the 4,720 support and resistance area.
From the macro side, gold remains well supported by a weaker US Dollar, as markets continue leaning into a potential breakthrough in the next round of US-Iran talks. The fading safe-haven premium in the dollar, combined with softer oil prices and easing inflation concerns, is helping bullion stay resilient near monthly highs despite the broader risk-on tone.
At the same time, this pullback into the 4,720 demand zone fits the current corrective structure perfectly. While peace-talk optimism has improved sentiment, the market is now heavily priced for a positive outcome, leaving little room for disappointment. Any negative surprise from the talks over the next 48 hours could quickly revive safe-haven flows and accelerate gold higher from this support region.
As long as price respects the 4,720 support zone, the broader bullish structure remains intact, and the path of least resistance continues to favor upside continuation.
Trade safe, Joe. 
Long
USD/CAD nears ceiling as CAD fails to rally | Sell the rally?There is an anomaly playing out in the currency markets right now. With Brent oil pushing past $100 a barrel amid the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the oil-correlated Canadian dollar should be surging, but instead, USD/CAD is trading higher, bouncing from recent lows and approaching the 1.4000 handle.
Why is the Loonie failing to catch a bid? It comes down to interest rate differentials and safe-haven flows into the US dollar. We break down the macro divergence driving this pair and the critical technical levels capping the current rally.
Key topics covered
- Oil correlation breakdown: The Canadian dollar is failing to benefit from the massive spike in oil prices as the safe-haven dominance of the US dollar is overriding Canada's traditional tailwinds.
- Interest rate premium: This is the core driver behind the USD/CAD rally. With the Fed sitting at 3.75% and the BOC holding at 2.25%, the premium makes the US dollar more attractive to carry traders. Furthermore, Canada's soft 1.8% inflation print lowers the odds of a BOC rate hike.
- Elliott Wave structure : Following the flag breakout, the pair completed a 5-wave impulsive leg down to the 1.3485 low. We discuss whether the current bounce is just a short-term correction or the start of a broader macro reversal.
- Overbought RSI resistance : The daily RSI is near the 70 overbought level, a territory it rarely holds without a fundamental disturbance. We identify the key resistance clusters where this rally is likely to exhaust.
USD/CAD scenarios & trade plan:
- Bearish (Sell the rally) : Because momentum is stretched, the current bounce offers a prime short-term selling opportunity. The immediate resistance cluster sits at 1.3886 (the October swing low), with the line in the sand at the 1.3930 double top. A rejection here opens a downside target of 1.3750, offering a favourable risk-to-reward ratio for shorts with tight stops above the highs. If Middle East tensions de-escalate, a deeper flush could retest the 1.3485 lows.
- Bullish (Macro breakout) : For the trend to officially reverse to the upside, buyers must secure a few daily closes above the 1.3930 resistance. Breaking this level invalidates the bearish structure and opens the door for a macro run toward the 50% Fibonacci level near 1.4150.
Are you selling the USD/CAD rally or focusing on a breakout above 1.3930? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Long 
XAUUSD Pullback to 5,090 | Tensions Support BullsHey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around the 5,090 zone.
Gold remains in a strong uptrend and is currently in a corrective phase, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 5,090 support–resistance zone. This area could act as a solid reaction level if buyers step back in and the broader bullish structure continues.
From a fundamental perspective, the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran continue to support safe-haven flows into Gold. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty typically strengthens demand for precious metals, and any escalation could trigger further bullish momentum in the near term.
With both technical structure and geopolitical drivers aligned, the bullish bias remains intact while price holds above key support.
As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk carefully.
Trade safe,
Joe. Long 
FTSE 100 record in sight! Buying the dip or selling the peak?The FTSE 100 remains near record highs after topping around 10,750 earlier this week and pulling back into the 10,590 support area.
UK CPI is now behind us, with inflation cooling to 3.0% y/y, and rate markets pricing around an 80% chance of a BOE cut in March, keeping the easing narrative alive after this week’s softer UK data.
Key topics covered
Macro backdrop : CPI and jobs cooled and the policy debate now shifts to whether easing expectations will keep supporting equities into March.
Oil/energy support : With oil holding a geopolitical premium amid US–Iran tensions, the FTSE’s energy exposure can help cushion pullbacks.
Technical structure : Trend remains, 4H RSI is above 50 with no clear bearish divergence, and the current move looks like a wave 4 pullback after an impulsive rally.
FTSE 100 scenarios :
Bullish : Support holds at 10,590–10,600, dip gets bought, and we look for a retest of the 10,720–10,750 highs, then a measured-move projection toward 10,850, with further extension risk toward 10,930 and potentially 11,000 if momentum stays firm.
Bearish : A deeper retracement opens the door to 10,550 (secondary dip-buy zone), with a clean break below that suggesting this is no longer a healthy consolidation and that a larger pullback is developing.
Are you buying the dip at 10,590 or waiting for 10,550? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. 
Long
