USDCAD reached a key daily demand zone (61.8% Fib)Expanded analysis (for the idea details)
Context & setup
Price has dropped sharply into a well-defined daily demand/congestion zone (≈ 1.3765–1.3714) and is currently testing the lower boundary. This area lines up with a key 61.8% retracement cluster and a multi-timeframe support region — a clear confluence of supply/demand and Fibonacci support.
Why this matters
The move into the zone is a strong liquidation leg; the first reaction here will tell us whether buyers are stepping in.
If price shows a clean bullish rejection (wicks, close back above the zone, or a bullish engulf), the probability of a corrective swing higher increases.
The 200/100-type moving averages and higher-timeframe structure act as resistance above, making this a high-reward countertrend/swing setup if buyers defend the zone.
Trade idea (example, for discussion — not trading advice)
Entry: buy area 1.376 – 1.379 after a confirmed bullish price action signal.
Stop loss: below 1.366 (monthly lower invalidation level).
Take profits: partial at 1.4026 (short-term swing target / area of interest), final at 1.4128 (monthly 61.8 / higher resistance).
Invalidation: clear daily close below 1.366 would invalidate the long idea and favors continuation lower.
Risk management & notes
Use position sizing so that the stop equals an acceptable percentage of your account. Aim for positive R:R (this plan targets ~2–4R depending on exact entry).
Watch for news and liquidity events — large catalysts can blow through technical zones.
Wait for a clean price-action confirmation before committing full size.
Summary
This is a classic demand-zone vs. fib confluence trade: if buyers defend 1.3765–1.3714, expect a corrective rally toward 1.402–1.413. If the zone breaks decisively, look for continuation toward 1.366 and below.
Not financial advice. Trade your plan and respect risk.
OANDA:USDCAD FX:USDCAD FOREXCOM:USDCAD BMFBOVESPA:CAD1! TFEX:USD1!
Long
