No change in view. The MA-10 vs MA-30 still negative (but turning) and the DMI positive but weak. Market is not showing clear wish to move higher. I prefer still short with tight stop-loss above 14.20 (let's say 14.35), as a breach may open the way to 15.50-16.25, before down again. For now keep profit order at 10.50-11.00.
No change in view. Remain SHORT for now with a stop-loss 14.35. The DMI is positive, but the NEW MOON phase is useful in advising on potential turning, and NEW MOON means expected downward move. It is based on moon cycles and it appears to help a lot along other indicators, is my view. Strategy SELL current 13.25-13.75 for profit order 10.50-11.00.
The slowness of move suggest that we are in a more balanced environment. The BULLS and BEARS are exchanging positions only. This suggests that we may have difficulty moving beyond 14.25 for now, and I feel that SELL strategy makes sense looking at the GANN angle resistance and the room we have to move lower. Strategy sell current 13.25-13.75 and place stop-loss...
The USDTRY pair starts looking tired. It does not seem to trend upwards. The 4-hourly chart starts looking negative, i.e. the 10-MA vs 30-MA turning and ikely may break. The stochastic is negative, and the DMI is flat and DMI+ below signal line. Further, providing we remain below 14.25, the chances are we move lower 10.50-10.75. Today am preferred SELL at current...
USDTRY remains defying gravity. No change of my medium-term view, and as you can see the channel resistance and support levels are the boundaries. The fast weakening of the TRY no doubt will improve the export base, and therefore natural TY inflows, i.e. the buying of TRY. Medium-term we will see 12.00- 10.35 to correct the rocket upward move. The timing, who...
I am unchangeable to my view point. It is even misunderstood. The view is medium-term here, whilst the short-term charts are similarly suggesting an imminent decline coming. it is obvious that interest rate policy has weakened sharply, and this against the standard view of managing inflation. The export base is good for Turkey, and the extreme weakening of the...
Sell USDTY 15.00-15.25 for move to 14.29 > 12.75. Market is awaiting news, but may be disappointing.
Today will be quite a day, either sharply up or down. My personal view, remains medium-term SELL. The FIB time cycles on weekly chart suggests we are nearing the end of the cycle, and further we are trying to move beyond GANN resistance, but am still worried about the stellar steepness of the increase. I have no issue seeing long-term 15-16-17 handles, but...
It seems comments coming my way to stop writing about USDTRY. Personally I can't see why I should. I have been working too long in this market and this way i can help others. In the end of the day, it's each ones decision to agree or not. For me not an issue. It is clear Turkey's monetary policy is quite different approach, and that has spooked the market....
Someone mentioned that interest rates in Turkey will decline to 5% by Thursday. I think that seems something out of this world. Anyway, looking at FIB circle, it is clear we have been in stellar mode, or its similar to viewing SpaceEx rocket material. No honestly, i prefer to be view this market as it is. Market is VERY LONG USDTY and any disappointment in rates...
The candle stick patterns provide clues on the state of the market. Hammer (inverted) top (cross) plus evening star, and RSI 93.0 for the weekly does not bode well for the longs. Sad to say, I remain steadfast in the belief that we will in fact have a collapse downwards. The GANN resistance 14.62 and 14.30 were attracted yesterday, and no doubt placed fears into...
I know, and some remarks given in the last week and today, technical views seems not to be warranted. I fully appreciate that when being short USDTRY with spikes and overdone situation with pain is not fun. However, it is not the first time observing such situations, and I sadly remain SHORT and add on price increases, but in small increments no doubt to ensure...
We are remaining on the high side, and the weekly chart currently has RSI 93.68, whilst the daily near 80.0. The pattern on daily chart is a FALSE BULL FLAG which means we will see a move downward over time. The support is around 13.6400. I remain having the view expecting a move towards 10.05-10.3500. It is even possible to see 8.7500 judging monthly chart condition.
besides the medium-term SELL weekly RSI 93.0 and the Daily RSI 80.0 the MONTHLY RSI is almost 89.0. We are about 1.50 pis above the BB top and viewing history, the correction was severe downward. Further, we have HAMMER TOP on monthly chart, a signal that suggests we may turn the tide. I remain having the view SELL is the way to go, and regardless we may see...
USDTRY tried $ 14.00 and so far failed to go above it. The FALSE BULL FLAG pattern, plus the GANN fan resistance and RSI weekly and daily both extremely overbought, still means SELL is the way to go. No change in view. I feel 10.05-10.30 medium-term can be seen, and short-term decline first to 11.60.
USDTRY continues to be my favorite sell strategy. Top is likely to be confined at 14.0500 and objective medium-term still 10.05-10.38.
the USDTRY still ranging and hanging in the highs. However, the weekly chart shows no reprieve and the large downward move still expected. Of course, we cannot predict the timing of the decline. The central bank may decide to hang on without lowering interest rates, and further, it may be likely that they will re-access the actions that has caused the tailspin...
The USDTRY is setting up for a large decline. The FALSE BULL FLAG pattern suggest the danger on downside and not upside. Perhaps Central bank raises by surprise interest rates instead of what is believed to lower the interest rates once more this month. the change of the head of central bank no doubt has placed the currency in a tail spin, and all what is...