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US Stock market approaching CRITICAL area i learned a big lesson from R. N. Elliott the founder of wave principle- impulses consumes more price rather than time and corrections consumes time rather than price. i a market drops quickly and rises slow you should consider it as a downtrend and vice versa. so to speak one may come up with the question that US stock market dropped fast in the past 10 years and rose slowely why it is also in an uptrend? to answer this critical question i should say that us central bank is offsetting us economy and for doing so they will answer tomorrow not today but they will be responsible for the actions. the economy should cool down inflation and deflation should co-exist one without another is devastating. we have inflation without deflation the Monetary base is always rising interest rate is close to a point where there is chance to be negative. we are experiencing biggest money printing in the history (by absolute size not relative) they are trying to keep economy booming forever but that's not the solution we should let economy to be free and do its cycles as it is necessary. after all is think this economy is in a downtrend since 2008 but it is off-setted. this fact that a market falls really fast is a sign of less interest to hold and less orders below the price. sell order is always ready to take down this market but buy orders are weak. the value of market is a fantasy made by us central bank and it is going to be someday in the road of reality. i measured the time from the all time high to the recent march low at 2187 and i noticed that we are reaching to a time ressistance of 1.618 times from top to bottom and also 0.618 retracement of the massive downtrend. also it appears to be forming a little double top formation. if market drops below 2790 level it will get harder for the economy to recover any time soon keep an eye on 13th of may (tomorrow) and the price of 2933. it may be the local top. it will affect cryptos as well. because bitcoin and US500 are correlated with the correalation value of 0.8 which indicates a great positive correlation. bitcoin will be in danger.
SP:SPXShort
by farzinsabbagh
4
USOIL: #stayhome effect Oil prices have dropped more than 50% in March (yearly performance is around-62,1%). Is it the end or are we going to see more downside movement? Let's assume this is another opportunity for joining bears, based on technical analysis (thoughts) you can see on the chart. How much lower can the price go? Can it reach the lows of 1999? My answer is: why not? Most of developed countries are on quarantine #stayhome and the supply wasn't cut by OPEC. The major US indices, including DJI, S&P500 and Nasdaq, have fallen in the following order: 35%, 30% and 25%. While different sectors and industries in the US have the following yearly performance so far: 1. Energy minerals sector (931,2B MKT CAP): -58,04%, out of which e.g.: -Coal Industry: -69,17% -Oil & Gas production Industry: -62,67% -Integrated oil Industry: -57,05% -Oil Refining/Marketing: - 55,7% 2. Industrial Services Sector (515,96B MKT CAP): -36,09%, out of which e.g.: -Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry: -60,01% -Oil&Gas Pipelines Industry: -42,93% 3. Process Industries Sector (681,34B MKT CAP):-27,36%, out of which e.g.: -Pulp&Paper Industry: -50,05% -Chemicals: Major Diversified Industry: -49,87% -Agricultural Commodities/Milling: -41,45% 4. Non-Energy Minerals Sector (476,43B MKT CAP): -25,73%, out of which e.g.: -Steel Industry: -48,32% -Other Metals/Minerals: -40,16% -Aluminium: -39,87% 5. Transportation sector (569,48B MKT CAP): -23,84%, out of which e.g.: -Airlines industy: -49,2% 6. Finance sector (6038,64B MKT CAP): -23,12%, out of which e.g.: -Life/Health Insurance Industry: -37,69% -Real Estate Development Industry: -37,64% -Financial Conglomerates Industry: -34,83% -Major Banks Industry: -31,13% 7. Consumer Services sector (1481,09B MKT CAP): -21,53%, out of which e.g.: -Hotels/Resorts/Cruise Lines Industry: -43,78% -Casinos/Gaming Industry: -34,22% 8. Producer Manufacturing sector (1030,45B MKT CAP): -21,02%, out of which e.g.: -Auto Parts: OEM Industry: -34.64% -Metal Fabrication Industry: -33,09% -Industrial Conglomerates Industry: -31,72% It's quite interesting when and how these industries will be able to recover, but I am quite sure it's a great opportunity to start analyzing particular companies and building portfolio with these businesses. This is going to be my next step... // I would very much appreciate if you would support my work by hitting like.) Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
FX:USOILEducation
by GIgor_021
EUR/USD vs DXYHi Guys, here a comparison mirroring EUR/USD vs DXY . Please share your views or comment and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
by cozzamara
1
DXY vs EUR/USDHi Guys, here a comparison mirroring DXY vs EUR/USD. Please share your views or comment and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
TVC:DXY
by cozzamara
Strange last week, the OPEC decision & near futureThe reasons for the markets getting out of “hibernation” are an active news background interspersed with the news. Recall, it was launched by Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel from Argentina and Brazil and at the same time accuse these countries of currency manipulation. What was perceived by us as an expansion of the trade war and a possible beginning of the currency war. Well, the week ended with the publication of statistics on the US labour market, as well as the completion of the OPEC meeting. Let's start with statistics on the US labour market. Honestly, it surprised us. The numbers came out abnormally high for the current reality of the US economy (+ 266K with a forecast + 180K). Also, the unemployment rate fell to its record low marks (3.5%). The growth of the dollar against the backdrop of such excellent data was logical. But, given the anomalous nature of the given data, we would not be in a hurry to conclude. At least one more confirmation is needed that + 266K is not a coincidence, but a pattern. So on Monday, we will rely on local profit-taking in the dollar after Friday's growth, and therefore we will look for points for its sales. Note that on Friday our recommendation for news trading in the USDCAD worked out perfectly: excellent US data overlapped with bad figures on the Canadian labour market, as a result, the USDCAD soared by 100 points. Perhaps the most important event in terms of the consequences of the past week was OPEC’s decision to further reduce oil production from 1.2 million to 1.7 million from January 1, 2020. So, we can talk about the OPEC + agreement №3 (recall, the first one, provided for a reduction of 1.8 million barrels, the second one 1.2 million barrels per day). At the same time, Saudi Arabia made an unexpected statement of readiness on its part to further reduce production by another 400 thousand b / d. That is, the total reduction may reach 2.1 million barrels. This is the highest reduction since the cartel's attempts to stabilize the situation in the oil market. Despite the rather modest oil growth on Friday, such an outcome of the OPEC meeting is a very strong bullish signal. So this week, we will look for points for oil purchases. It would seem that after such a busy week the markets need a break, but you should not count on it. This week promises to be even more volatile. Key events are the announcement of the Fed decision on monetary policy parameters in the US, the ECB in the Eurozone, as well as elections in the UK. And although both events seem relatively predictable, there is enough time for surprises. How to make money on each of this news we will write a bit later. As for our positions, we do not see any reason to change our basic strategy (except oil). Therefore, we will continue to buy safe-haven assets (gold is simply perfectly substituted), sell the dollar, and this week we will actively build up a long position on the pound - the victory of conservatives in the UK parliamentary elections will have to hit the pound higher. we will buy oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
1
US30 SHORTAlot of fundamental aspects are in play with the US30 right now, so adding technical analysis on top of your knowledge on this indice will give you your own feel of confidence when you see the set up i have here. Multiple confluences with the 61.8% and the 161.80% on the swing downs with the fib. will look to see this potential move happening over the next few days. Use a sensible trailing stop loss. Secure the bag. Everyday is Money day Follow my trading channel on instagram : @Learnitempire for free access to my group chat send direct message "LIT" to @learnitempire
OANDA:US30USDShort
by LitCap-Vell
SPX: Progress made in 20 yearsHi Guys, the above is to provide a rough narrative of the last 20 years. What was happening during the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis was scary. We were on the verge of a severe recession according to everybody and extreme measures had to be taken. Pump money, tighter control and let's move on. And if you look at the results IMHO CBs did an excellent job to save the System in the last 10 years. SPX reached its top in Jan'18 (to pullback), in Oct'18 (to pullback) and Apr'19 (to pullback). Level just below 3000 points. I don't know that to expect but remember what Powell said about pausing during the Flash Recession. That is IMHO a key word: "TO PAUSE". Below a link to the post iro Flash Recession: Furthermore a link to a post on how VIX has been used to trade the Bull Run since 2010: And this should be it until next dip is bought. Lol Thank you for your support and for sharing ideas. Please like if you appreciate the post and follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:SPX
by cozzamara