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Usoilshort

USOIL Market Update | 1H Technical Outlook🛢️USOIL has shown a strong rally in recent sessions and successfully sustained above the psychological 100$ level. However, short-term momentum is now starting to weaken. A clear rising wedge structure had formed on the chart, which has now broken to the downside. Normally, a rising wedge is considered a bearish pattern that signals momentum exhaustion on the upside. ✔️ Rising wedge downside breakout ✔️ RSI bearish divergence confirmed ✔️ Momentum weakening near resistance ✔️ 104$–105$ remains the major resistance zone 👉 Important Observation: Both price action and RSI are signaling that bullish momentum is gradually fading. If USOIL sustains below the 100$ level, selling pressure may increase, and a deeper pullback could develop. 📊 Key Levels to Watch 🔴 Resistance: 104$ major resistance zone 🟢 Supports: 100$ psychological support 96$ major structure support 🎯 Technical Outlook 📌 Short-term momentum is weakening 📌 Holding above 100$ may lead to consolidation 📌 Breakdown below 100$ could trigger further downside 📌 Full bearish confirmation comes below the 96$ structure support ➡️ Overall, the oil chart is showing early bearish signs, but major bearish trend confirmation will only come after a decisive breakdown of key support levels. Just for information purposes only.
TVC:USOILShort
by GrowingPath
Crude Oil and US Dollar Index Support and Resistance ZonesThe US Dollar Index is currently trading at 98.5587, between the Bollinger Band middle line (98.30) and the upper line (98.74). The MACD histogram is showing a slight increase in bullish momentum, with the DIFF line crossing above the DEA line, indicating a slight advantage for the bulls, but limited upside potential. Short-term resistance lies at 98.60-98.74, while initial support is provided at 98.30. Crude oil is trading closely around the Bollinger Band middle line at 100.45, with significant resistance at the upper line (103.69) and medium-term support at the lower line (97.21). The MACD shows the DIFF and DEA lines nearly converging, with very short green bars, indicating a balance between bulls and bears, suggesting that the short-term direction awaits further confirmation from fundamental signals. The price is in a rebound correction channel, with the middle line providing effective support.
TVC:USOILLong
by Vili_Wealth_Plan
CRUDE OIL ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ LIVE TRADE ALERT — CRUDE OIL WTI (CFD) ⏱ M15 | 🌍 London Session | 📉 SELL 🎯 Entry Zone: 102.80 — 103.25 🛑 SL Zone: 105.50 — 106.52 ✅ TP1 → 100.37 ✅ TP2 → 97.16 ✅ TP3 → 94.30 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📖 REASON: Crude Oil has been grinding up inside an ascending channel for days — but price just broke into the red supply zone (103.25–106.52) which sits well above the channel resistance. This is a classic overthrow — a fake breakout above structure designed to trap breakout buyers before the real move down begins. The projected path shows a sharp rejection from the supply zone targeting three major demand levels below, with the move cutting straight through the ascending channel and breaking it decisively. The channel is the bull trap — the supply zone is where smart money sells. 💡 CONTEXT: Bearish below 103.25. The ascending channel that held price for days is now being used as the launchpad for a sell — not a continuation buy. London is the trigger session, NY open will accelerate the downside. TP1 at 100.37 is the first key level, then a deeper flush to 97.16 and 94.30 as the channel breaks completely. 💰 MONEY MANAGEMENT: Risk 1–2% max. Entry valid across 102.80–103.25 — scale in, not full size at once. SL only invalidated on a clean close above 106.52. Take 40% partials at TP1, move SL to breakeven, ride runners to TP2 and TP3. This is a multi-session trade — hold with conviction.
FX:USOIL
by Triple7Capital
The US-Iran rivalry conceals a "debt-reduction strategy," The US-Iran rivalry conceals a "debt-reduction strategy," driving up oil prices. The current US-Iran rivalry is at a stage where pressure is high on paper, but opportunities abound in trade. The US is trying to make Iran uncomfortable to gain leverage at the negotiating table, while simultaneously turning a blind eye to inflation and transferring US debt globally to share the burden. This debt dilution process increases corporate revenue, leading to a sustained rise in global equity assets amid high interest rates—using creditors' profits to subsidize shareholders' profits. Following this logic, rising oil prices are driven by two factors: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and US debt reduction. Furthermore, the market's accustomed attitude towards high oil prices and high inflation has led to a feast of asset appreciation for the wealthy as companies raise prices. In the midterm elections, politicians can largely offset the negative impact of inflation on their election prospects by providing good welfare to the public and generating positive sentiment.
TVC:USOILLong
by Vili_Wealth_Plan
WTI CRUDE OILWTI CRUDE OIL — Weekly Outlook | 4H Structure 🗓️ Crude Oil is trading within a well-defined ascending channel on the 4H timeframe. Price has recently pushed into a resistance zone near 101.523, showing signs of short-term rejection. The structure points toward a healthy pullback before continuation. 📌 Key Levels: 🔻 Pullback Target — 94.009 🔺 Resistance — 101.523 📐 Structure: Price tagged the upper boundary of the ascending channel and is now showing bearish pressure at resistance. A retracement toward the lower channel support at 94.009 is the expected move before bulls potentially regain control. The channel structure remains intact as long as price holds within its boundaries. ⚠️ Macro This Week: The US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to be the primary driver for Oil volatility. Additionally, EIA Crude Inventories and CPI data this week can trigger sharp price swings. Any progress or breakdown in peace negotiations will move Oil significantly. 📖 Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
FX:USOIL
by Triple7Capital
Oil Remains Firm As Supply Risk DominatesCrude is not drifting higher by accident here; it is holding a structurally bullish tone because the market is still pricing real supply risk, not just headline fear. I’m treating this as a trend-continuation setup on the 4H chart, where every pullback is being judged against geopolitical flow, not just standard technical mean reversion. Current Bias I’m bullish on oil on the 4H to swing-trade timeframe. The near-term structure still favors buyers because supply-disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz is keeping a firm geopolitical premium under crude, even as the market digests periodic pullbacks. Technical Posture & Price Action From the chart, I see oil pulling back into a live reaction area after a strong advance toward the 106 region, and that keeps the setup constructive rather than broken. The broad 85 to 89 zone has already acted as a major demand base on prior tests, and the current retracement looks like a reset inside a larger bullish structure rather than a full reversal. The higher timeframe picture suggests the market is still respecting higher-value support, while the lower timeframe pullback is simply testing whether buyers will defend around the 93 to 95 area before another push. If that support holds, the path back toward 106 and then 117 stays open. Indicator & Volume Analysis If I map momentum onto this setup, I’d expect RSI on the 4H to be cooling from prior strength rather than collapsing into bearish territory, which is what I want to see in a bullish continuation trade. MACD likely rolled over during the pullback, but the key is whether it stabilizes and curls higher as price defends support. The moving-average picture should still lean constructive if price remains above the major swing base, and recent structure suggests volume likely expanded on the impulsive rallies and normalized on the retracement. That is typically healthy behavior in a bullish market because it shows demand drove the breakout and profit-taking drove the dip. Key Fundamental Drivers The immediate driver is still Middle East supply risk, especially any disruption tied to Hormuz shipping and the ability of Gulf producers to actually move barrels. OPEC+ has announced output increases, but those moves carry limited near-term weight if transit risk keeps real flows constrained. That means the crude bid is being sustained by the market’s belief that physical supply vulnerability matters more right now than paper quota changes. Macro Context The macro backdrop is supportive because higher oil feeds directly into inflation expectations, which then bleeds into rate pricing, central-bank caution, and broader commodity rotation. In other words, oil is not trading in isolation; it is influencing how traders think about inflation, consumer pressure, and the timing of any meaningful Fed relief. At the same time, there is a split in longer-horizon views: some banks still argue soft medium-term supply-demand fundamentals could eventually pull oil lower, but the market in front of us is trading the current disruption premium, not the distant normalization story. Primary Risk to the Trend The clearest invalidation is a credible US-Iran de-escalation that materially reopens Hormuz flows and reduces the supply shock premium. If the market becomes convinced that shipping risk is normalizing and OPEC barrels can actually reach the market cleanly, crude can unwind fast. A second risk is a demand scare tied to weaker global growth, especially if recession concerns begin to outweigh supply fears. In that case, oil can stop behaving like a scarcity trade and start trading like a growth-sensitive asset again. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event The most important catalysts are Iran/US diplomacy, shipping-security updates around the Strait of Hormuz, and any fresh OPEC+ implementation signal. Beyond that, US inflation data and Fed communication matter because rising oil is feeding directly into inflation expectations and policy pricing. So for this market, geopolitics is the first trigger, and macro is the second-order amplifier. Leader/Lagger Dynamics Oil is a leader right now, not a lagger. It influences CAD, inflation expectations, energy equities, and sometimes broader risk sentiment because a sustained move in crude changes how traders price growth and policy at the same time. If oil extends higher, I would expect CAD-sensitive pairs and inflation hedges to react quickly. If crude fades sharply, some of that support in commodity FX and inflation-sensitive trades can unwind with it. Key Levels Support Levels: 93.00 to 92.00 is the first active support band, then 89.00, with the major demand zone sitting around 85.00 to 86.00. Resistance Levels: 100.00 is the first psychological barrier, then 106.21, followed by 117.71, with a larger extreme reference near 119.48. Stop Loss (SL) & Invalidation Point: I would place the main bullish invalidation below 88.80 for a swing setup, because a sustained break under that area would signal the pullback is no longer healthy and the market is losing its higher-support structure. Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP1 at 100.00, TP2 at 106.21, TP3 at 117.71, and an aggressive extension target near 119.48 if geopolitical stress intensifies. Summary: Bias and Watchpoints My bias on oil is bullish, and I still see this chart as a buy-the-dip structure unless price starts losing the 92 area decisively and especially the 89 to 88.80 invalidation zone. The technical picture says this is a retracement inside strength, while the fundamental picture says the market still respects real supply disruption risk far more than symbolic output adjustments. For execution, I’d frame the trade around support holding first, not around chasing candles into resistance. As long as crude stays above the key support band, I’m targeting 100, then 106.21, and then 117.71, with the understanding that the entire bullish thesis can weaken quickly if there is a credible diplomatic breakthrough that normalizes flows through Hormuz.
TVC:USOILLong
by ultreosforex
2
Oil Pullback Holds Demand While Broader Structure Remain BullishOil has pulled back sharply from recent highs, but what stands out to me is how controlled this move has been. Instead of collapsing, price is reacting precisely into a well-defined demand zone, and that tells me this isn’t panic selling — it’s positioning. With the broader structure still intact and fundamentals still leaning tight on supply, this looks more like a reset before continuation rather than a full reversal. Current Bias: Bullish (4H timeframe focus) I’m maintaining a bullish bias as long as price continues to hold above the current demand zone and avoids a clean breakdown. Technical Posture & Price Action: Price is currently in a corrective phase within a broader uptrend. The impulsive move toward the 115–118 region established strong bullish structure, and the recent drop looks like a pullback into demand rather than a structural shift. On the 4H, I’m seeing a series of higher lows still intact overall, even though the short-term structure has softened. The key here is that price has returned to a previously respected demand zone around 88–90, where buyers have stepped in before. The recent candles show rejection from lows and early stabilization — not aggressive continuation selling. That’s typically what you see when a market is absorbing supply before rotating higher. Indicator & Volume Analysis: Momentum has cooled significantly from the previous bullish leg, which is healthy. RSI would likely be near neutral or slightly oversold on this pullback, indicating room for expansion higher. Moving averages on the 4H would still be upward sloping or flattening, not rolling over aggressively — another sign this is corrective, not a trend reversal. Volume behavior likely shows a spike on the selloff but without sustained follow-through. That suggests selling pressure is not dominant — it’s being absorbed within demand. Key Fundamental Drivers: Ongoing supply disruptions and tight physical crude markets Continued uncertainty around Middle East flows and Hormuz-related risks Persistent inflation pressure linked to elevated energy prices Market still underpricing the severity of physical supply constraints Macro Context: Interest Rates: Elevated oil prices keep inflation expectations sticky, which complicates central bank easing paths Growth Trends: Global growth is mixed, but not weak enough to collapse demand Commodity Flows: Oil remains one of the strongest drivers across asset classes, influencing currencies (CAD), inflation, and equities Geopolitics: Ongoing tension in key supply routes continues to create upside pressure This is not just a commodity move — it’s a macro driver affecting everything else. Primary Risk to the Trend: The biggest risk is a real resolution of supply disruption, not just headlines. If: Oil supply routes normalize Diplomatic progress becomes tangible Inventories start building again Then this bullish structure breaks, and the pullback becomes a deeper trend shift. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event: Inventory data (EIA reports) Middle East geopolitical developments OPEC commentary or production changes Global demand signals Unlike FX, oil reacts heavily to real-world supply changes, not just expectations. Leader/Lagger Dynamics: Oil is a leader. It drives: CAD strength/weakness Inflation expectations Central bank policy outlook Sector rotation in equities If oil moves, other markets adjust after — not before. Key Levels: Support Levels: 90.00 – 88.00 (current demand zone) 85.00 (deeper structure support) Resistance Levels: 105.76 117.71 Stop Loss (SL) & Invalidation Point: Below 85.00 Take Profit (TP) Targets: 105.76 117.71 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints: I’m staying bullish on oil as long as price holds above the 88–90 demand zone. The current pullback looks corrective, not structural, and the broader trend remains intact. Invalidation sits below 85.00 — if that breaks, the bullish structure weakens significantly. On the upside, I’m targeting a move back toward 105.76, with potential extension toward 117.71 if momentum returns. The key factor here is supply — not sentiment. If supply remains constrained, oil pushes higher. If supply normalizes, this entire setup shifts quickly.
TVC:USOILLong
by ultreosforex
2
USOIL | (1H) | Trend Analysis | Prof.TraderTilkiGuys, greetings, I prepared a USOIL analysis for you. USOIL has been rising fundamentally due to the US–Iran conflict. Currently, negotiations are ongoing, but many investors do not see these talks positively. ✅ Best buy entry zone: 89.49 – 86.38 🎯 Target level: 105.68 If the price reaches this zone, I will open a buy trade and aim for 105.68. After many requests, I have started sharing signals with you again. My only request is that you support my analyses with your likes. I love each of my followers. It’s thanks to your likes that I continue to share these analyses. 💛
TVC:USOIL
by TraderTilki
9
A brief respite from loosened geopolitical tensionsUSOIL's short-term trend is range-bound with a slight downward bias, with the $87-$93 range being the core battleground. Trading strategy should combine light-position swing trading with range trading, avoiding chasing highs and lows. The best strategy at present is to think within a range – do not consider going long above 92.50, and look for shorting opportunities near 95, with targets at 90 or even 87. If the price falls back to around $87 with decreasing volume, it could be a good entry point for a short-term rebound, with a stop-loss below $85. Key news variables to watch out for include: the specific timetable for the next round of US-Iran negotiations, actual navigation data in the Strait of Hormuz, and this week's EIA inventory report. Even a few words on the news could cause oil prices to jump $2-3; the direction depends entirely on the bias of the news. TVC:USOIL FX:USOIL FXPRO:USOILK2026 GBEBROKERS:USOIL
TVC:USOIL
by Chuck_Wilson
USOIL may continue to fluctuate within the 95-85 range.USOIL is currently trading in a narrow range between 90 and 93, but it is relatively weak. The easing of tensions between the US and Iran has reduced market concerns about disruptions to the crude oil supply chain, limiting the potential for a significant rise in crude oil prices; however, the arrival of the peak season for crude oil demand has provided substantial support for the price of USOIL. From a technical perspective, USOIL is currently under pressure due to the technical head and shoulders structure, and will be under pressure in the 95-97 range for the short term. The current support/resistance level is in the 91-90 range. If USOIL remains above 91-90, there is a chance it could test the 95-97 range in the short term. If USOIL falls below the 91-90 range, it is likely to continue its decline to the 87-85 range. Since USOIL does not have a clear trend in the short term, we can consider using a range-bound trading strategy to buy low and sell high. Short-term technical support: 91-90 / 87-85 Short-term technical resistance: 95-97 / 102-104 Therefore, in the short term, if USOIL rebounds to the 95-97 area first, I might consider shorting USOIL; if it retraces to the 87-85 area first, I might prioritize going long on USOIL.
FX:USOIL
by Ray_Chart
Crude Oil Price Rebound and Marginal Easing of Inflation ExpectaCrude Oil Price Rebound and Marginal Easing of Inflation Expectations The situation in the Middle East has directly impacted the energy market. Crude oil prices rebounded after briefly touching a three-week low near $85 in early trading and are currently hovering above $91. Despite the continued US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the pullback in oil prices from recent highs has somewhat eased inflation concerns. This has reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and reignited market expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially supporting gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. However, high oil prices still pose a two-way risk. On the one hand, supply chain uncertainties support a bottom for oil prices; on the other hand, price corrections provide room for cooling inflation expectations. This marginal change influences the Fed's decision-making path: energy price shocks are supply-side disturbances, which are difficult to address with traditional monetary policy tools. If oil prices stabilize within the current range, inflationary pressures may gradually become manageable, but any escalation of the blockade could reverse this trend. Against this backdrop, gold prices are exhibiting a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and interest rate sensitivity, with short-term oil price fluctuations becoming a key variable to observe.
TVC:USOILLong
by Willie_Colette
Current market conditions are driven by geopolitical risks.The 4-hour chart shows an expanding wedge pattern, which typically appears in major top areas, indicating increased divergence between bulls and bears and greater volatility. The RSI is above 50 and the MACD histogram is still red, indicating that there is still upward momentum in the short term. However, if the price fails to break through the resistance zone of $106-$108, the risk of a pullback will increase significantly. However, the current market trend is dominated by geopolitical risk premiums, while supply and demand fundamentals are temporarily secondary. First support: $100 Core support: $97.50 First resistance: $105 Core resistance: $106.70-$108 Current trading strategy: If the price retraces to the $100 level and stabilizes, consider a small long position. If the price rebounds to the $106-$106.5 resistance zone, consider a short position. TVC:USOIL GBEBROKERS:USOIL GBEBROKERS:USOIL IG:USOIL
TVC:USOIL
by Chuck_Wilson
USOIL H4 | Bearish Reaction Off Pullback ResistanceMomentum: Bearish Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud. Sell entry: 111.318 - Pullback resistance - 78.6% Fib retracement - Fair value gap Stop Loss: 119.447 - Swing high resistance Take Profit: 100.702 - Pullback support High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk), Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
Negotiations Collapse: An Opportunity for a Crude Oil RallyFrom a technical perspective, the daily chart structure indicates that the market has re-entered a strong upward channel, with bullish momentum showing a marked increase; however, it also signals a certain degree of short-term overbought risk. The low point established during the previous pullback serves as a critical short-term support level; currently, key support is situated near $95. Conversely, overhead resistance is concentrated around the psychological threshold of $112 and the area of ​​previous highs. Should the price achieve a decisive breakout and firmly establish itself above $112, it could open up further upside potential, potentially testing the $119 region. Conversely, if the price surges only to retreat—breaking below $95—it may enter a phase of technical correction to partially fill the existing price gap. Key Factors: Short-term price movements remain highly contingent upon developments in the geopolitical landscape. Should the conflict continue to escalate, oil prices could advance further and breach key resistance levels; conversely, if signs of de-escalation emerge, oil prices could undergo a sharp correction.
TVC:USOILLong
by Willie_Colette
USOIL H1 | Bearish Reaction Off Pullback ResistanceMomentum: Bearish Price is currently below the ichimoku cloud. Sell entry: 104.648 - Pullback resistance - 50% Fib retracement - 61.8% Fib projection Stop Loss: 109.288 - Pullback resistance Take Profit: 99.640 - Pullback support High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk), Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
1
The price is fluctuating around $98. Should I go long or short?The biggest variable affecting oil prices in the short term is not inventory, nor CPI, but the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad. On the 4-hour chart, the short-term moving average system is in a bullish alignment, and oil prices are steadily rising along the trend line, forming a clear upward channel. However, from the daily chart, the price has broken below the important upward trend line and is currently below the 50-day moving average, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continuing to issue negative signals. In summary, a short-term strategy is more suitable for trading within a range: Long entry suggestion: Consider entering long positions around $97.00-$96.50. Short selling suggestion: Consider shorting when the price rebounds to the $100.00-$101.30 range. TVC:USOIL CXM:USOIL FXPRO:USOILK2026
TVC:USOIL
by Chuck_Wilson
1
Range trading, breakout direction determines rhythmThe market experienced repeated back-and-forth movements during the recovery phase following the sharp drop. The Strait of Hormuz remains unopened, and the global daily supply gap of over ten million barrels persists. There is only one core contradiction in the market—whether or not the strait will be opened. The RSI has rebounded from an extremely oversold level of 18 during the crash to a neutral level of 51, while the MACD is still running in negative territory below the zero line. The daily chart has broken below the main upward trend line, and the short-term bearish structure has not been repaired. After the ceasefire news was digested, the market entered a phase of "negotiation outcome expectation." As long as the strait is not substantially opened, there will be buying support below; however, as long as negotiations do not completely break down, the upside potential is also limited. Currently, buying opportunities exist in the $97.0-$97.3 range. TVC:USOIL GBEBROKERS:USOIL IG:USOIL FXPRO:USOILK2026 FXPRO:USOILK2026
TVC:USOILLong
by Chuck_Wilson
Short at the current position of 100.5The two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is essentially a fragile piece of paper – Iran claims that the US has violated three key provisions and has reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The current market logic is: watch the outcome of the US-Iran talks in Pakistan on April 11. If the price can't hold, there might be another surge; if the talks go smoothly, the geopolitical premium will continue to be given back. The technical aspects are more complex. After the sharp drop on April 8, oil prices fell to around $86, then quickly rebounded above $91 and further to around $97, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels. However, the upward momentum is not strong at present – the rebound is more driven by geopolitical news than by funds actively going long. Consider a small long position in the 95.00-95.50 range, with a stop loss below 93.80. Consider a small short position when the price encounters resistance in the $100.00-$101.00 range, with a stop-loss above $102.20. The current OIL market is in a state of "repeated news and volatile technicals," making it unsuitable for large-scale one-sided betting. A more prudent strategy is to buy low and sell high, and avoid chasing highs and selling lows. The key moment will be the outcome of the talks on April 11. Until then, observe more and act less, keep your positions light, and set tight stop-loss orders. TVC:USOIL FXPRO:USOILK2026 GBEBROKERS:USOIL FXPRO:USOILK2026
TVC:USOILShort
by Chuck_Wilson
Two forces in the oil industry collide head-on.News: Two forces clash head-on👇👇👇👇 Positive news—the Strait of Hormuz is closed again. Iran has suspended oil tanker passage through the Strait, citing Israel's attack on Lebanon as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. This renewed blockade of the Strait, a vital global energy artery, has immediately triggered a significant geopolitical premium. Negative news – overwhelming inventory pressure. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased for the seventh consecutive week, rising by 3.08 million barrels last week, compared to market expectations of only 700,000 barrels. Inventory levels are already above the five-year average, indicating that the oversupply is not just talk, but a real phenomenon. OPEC+ is set to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in May, further accumulating supply-side pressure. The current oil market is characterized by price increases driven by geopolitical news and decreases by fundamental factors. On the 4-hour chart, the price ran in the rebound channel for a while, but it couldn't go up after hitting around 98, and the candlestick started to show upper shadows. The 1-hour MACD has just formed a golden cross below the zero line, but the bearish momentum still dominates, and the moving average system is generally suppressing the price. The RSI has just climbed out of the oversold zone and is still in a neutral to weak position. In short: the overall bullish trend remains unchanged, but the short-term outlook has been damaged and needs time to recover. Long positions: Wait for prices to return to around 95.00. Short positions: Consider small short positions in the 98.50-99.00 range. The best current strategy: Observe more and act less, wait for the direction to become clear before making any moves.With alternating bullish and bearish news, entering the market will only result in losses. TVC:USOIL CXM:USOIL IG:USOIL FXPRO:USOILK2026 MEXC:USOILUSDT.P
TVC:USOIL
by Chuck_Wilson
USOIL (WTI) – Key levels between inefficiencies and volumeLooking at the 4h chart, price is currently consolidating after a strong bullish impulse. What stands out clearly is the presence of several important technical areas: Higher Inefficiency zone (around 92$–98$) Price is currently trading inside an inefficiency created during the upward move. These areas are often revisited and “filled”, but can also act as short-term resistance. High volume nodes (around 65$ and 75$) Below the current price, we can identify high volume zones. These levels typically represent strong institutional interest and often act as: - Accumulation areas; - Potential support in case of a pullback. Lower inefficiency (around 69$-71$) There is also another inefficiency below, which could attract price if the current structure weakens. Market scenarios: Bullish: holding above the 90$ area could support continuation toward higher highs; Bearish: losing the current zone could lead to a move back to inefficiency zones 75$ and potentially 65$ (less likely). Price is currently at a decision point: either continuation through absorption or a shift into distribution followed by a retracement. My bias for USOIL in short term is bearish. "Where light fades, truth reveals itself." ShadowPlayer
TVC:USOILShort
by ShadowPlayer
A rebound is a selling point, not a reversal signal.OIL closed at $110.89 yesterday, but everything changed overnight. The reason is simple: the US and Iran suddenly reached a two-week ceasefire agreement. Trump announced a suspension of military action against Iran less than an hour and a half before the deadline, and Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during this period. The market reacted immediately—the previously soaring geopolitical premium was quickly wiped out. Previously, Iran had almost completely blocked the Strait, causing OPEC+ daily production to plummet by 7.56 million barrels, the largest drop in forty years. Now, with this sudden reversal, long positions betting on supply disruptions were dumped en masse. Today's technical picture is very bad. The price broke below the 200-hour moving average—the bottom of the upward channel of the previous two weeks has been breached, confirming the bearish signal. The MACD continues to diverge below the zero line, with the negative histogram lengthening, indicating that bearish momentum has not weakened. The RSI once fell to around 18—extremely oversold. In short: A rebound is a selling point, not a reversal signal. Any upward movement into the $98-$100 range will encounter strong selling pressure. TVC:USOIL FOREXCOM:USOIL GBEBROKERS:USOIL PURPLETRADING:USOIL GBEBROKERS:USOIL
TVC:USOILShort
by Chuck_Wilson
1
USOIL Short Setup (Swing Trade)USOIL Short Setup (Swing Trade) I am entering a short position on OIL from current levels with a very tight stop loss. This is intended to be a swing trade. Given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, I plan to manage risk actively - locking in profits along the way if the trade develops in my favor and I am not stopped out. Entry: 113.80 SL: 115.50 TP: 76.80 RR: 1:21 This could turn into a legendary trade if it plays out. Price appears to have formed a second tap within the Wyckoff distribution schematic, followed by a liquidity grab from a lower timeframe order block. The setup offers an exceptional RR profile, making it worth taking the shot. Let’s see how it unfolds.
TVC:USOILShort
by smwajeeh