WTI: Demand Zone Offers a Recovery SetupWTI crude has returned to a major demand area after a sharp decline from the recent highs. Price is now consolidating around the $75 region, where sellers are losing momentum and buyers are beginning to defend the lower boundary of the structure.
The broader four-hour trend remains under pressure, with price still trading below a descending trendline. However, the current setup is not based on an immediate trend reversal. It is a tactical long from demand, targeting a recovery toward the nearest resistance levels.
Trade Plan
Entry: 76.00
Stop Loss: 71.80
Take Profit 1: 79.60
Take Profit 2: 85.10
The stop is positioned below the demand zone and the recent swing structure. A sustained break under 71.80 would invalidate the idea and confirm that sellers remain firmly in control.
Why This Level Matters
The $73–75 region previously acted as an important reaction area before price accelerated higher. The latest selloff has brought WTI back into the same zone, but the market has not yet produced a decisive breakdown.
Price is now forming a tight consolidation directly above support. This often signals that volatility is compressing before the next directional move. A recovery above 76.00 would strengthen the short-term bullish case and expose 79.60, where the first meaningful resistance is located.
The second target at 85.10 sits near the descending trendline and the upper boundary of the previous consolidation. Reaching this level would require a stronger shift in momentum, so TP2 should be treated as an extended target rather than the base case.
Market Context
Oil remains caught between bearish inventory data and persistent geopolitical supply risks. U.S. commercial crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.5 million barrels in the latest reporting week, while Cushing stocks also rose sharply. That has limited the strength of the current recovery.
At the same time, traders remain cautious around Iran-related negotiations and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf exports are still well below pre-war levels, while renewed attacks on regional energy infrastructure continue to create upside supply risk.
OPEC+ has also approved another production quota increase for September, but recent quota increases have had a limited impact because logistical disruptions have prevented some of that supply from reaching the market.
Trading Scenarios
A confirmed move above 76.00 would support a recovery toward 79.60. If buyers maintain momentum above that level, 85.10 and the descending trendline become the next major test.
A four-hour close below the demand zone would invalidate the long setup and expose the 71.80 region.
For now, the trade is simple: buying demand, not chasing a breakout. 
Long
The real opportunity is not over yet!As fundamentals change, new trading opportunities are gradually emerging. With the new shipping routes and rules in the Strait of Hormuz about to be officially implemented, the risk premium brought about by the previous expectation of channel blockade is gradually fading. The upward space of crude oil previously stimulated by news has also been largely given back, and the market trading logic is returning from geopolitics to supply and demand fundamentals. From a fundamental perspective, although we are still in the traditional peak season for summer demand, there has been no significant imbalance in global crude oil supply and demand. There is no persistent supply gap in the market. The current relatively tight supply issues are more concentrated in Europe, which are essentially due to geopolitical factors rather than a fundamental change in the global supply and demand structure. As new rules are gradually established, Iran's sovereignty claims are somewhat guaranteed. The market will now focus on the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran. If the negotiations proceed smoothly, the geopolitical risk premium is expected to continue to decline, and there is still room for crude oil prices to fall further. From a technical perspective, USOIL is still in a weak trend after a rebound correction. The short-term trading strategy is still to sell on rallies. The key resistance level to watch is 77-79. If the rebound is met with resistance, continue to look for opportunities to sell at higher levels. On the downside, pay close attention to the 70 level. If it breaks down effectively, further downside potential cannot be ruled out. Short 
Waiting is also part of the transaction!Regarding USOIL, with the US suspending military operations against Iran, the market has entered a new round of negotiations. At the same time, a new agreement is expected to be reached on the issue of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns about USOIL supply have eased, and USOIL has fallen rapidly. USOIL opened sharply lower from a high of around 86.8 last Friday, and once fell below the 80 mark, which fully demonstrates that the previous rise was more driven by geopolitical sentiment. From the current fundamentals perspective, as long as there are new developments in the Middle East situation, oil prices may still fluctuate rapidly. However, before there are substantial changes in the supply and demand pattern, the overall trend will still be mainly characterized by repeated fluctuations, and the sustainability of unilateral market trends will be relatively limited. From a technical perspective, the key support level to watch is the 78-76 area, which is a crucial short-term defense zone. On the upside, the key resistance level to watch is the 83-85 area, which will remain a significant resistance zone for any rebound as the price gradually moves downward. Therefore, it is not advisable to blindly follow the trend, chasing highs and lows. Instead, consider shorting after rallies and going long near support levels after dips. Long 
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Long 
Buy USOIL: It still has room to rebound!Crude oil prices have fluctuated wildly due to news events and are currently trading around 90. From a macro perspective, although there are signs of easing tensions in the Middle East in the short term, concerns about potential disruptions to the crude oil supply chain have not completely disappeared as long as the conflict has not ended. Moreover, with the arrival of the peak season for crude oil demand, the supply relationship will provide absolute protection for oil prices!
From a technical perspective, USOIL has also rebounded after a significant pullback. However, unlike gold, USOIL has formed a double bottom pattern around the 85-84 area, providing significant technical support. Moreover, USOIL has returned to a range-bound trading pattern earlier than gold, which is more conducive to it forming a bottom within this range. Therefore, in short-term trading, I prefer to buy USOIL with the 87-85 area as support, and the 90-95 area as the primary target in the short term! Long 
Buy USOIL: Expected to continue rising after consolidationThe geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has not yet ended, and market concerns about potential disruptions to the crude oil supply chain have not completely disappeared. Moreover, major oil-producing countries in the Middle East may reduce production as a result. With the peak season for crude oil demand approaching, the macroeconomic fundamentals of supply falling short of demand provide a solid guarantee for crude oil prices!
From a technical perspective, although crude oil prices have been under pressure and fallen multiple times, they have not broken through the key support level below during the decline. On the contrary, after several bottoming out and rebounding, the tested support was effectively strengthened and consolidated, providing favorable technical conditions for the rise in USOIL prices. In addition, based on the symmetrical structure of the chart, USOIL still has the potential to test the 97-99 (AB point) area.
Therefore, in the short term, we can continue to buy USOIL based on the support level in the 93-90 area. Long 
Buy USOIL: The uptrend may not be over yet.The ongoing tensions in the Middle East and concerns about crude oil supply have provided reliable macroeconomic fundamental support for crude oil prices and limited the downside potential.
From a technical perspective, although a double-top pattern exists in the short term, based on the previous similar double-top pattern, crude oil was able to rebound quickly after the pullback. This did not limit the strength of the rebound; on the contrary, it confirmed the strength of the support below, which is conducive to an effective rebound after crude oil bottoms out. In the short term, crude oil clearly has relatively strong support in the 93-90 range.
After a short-term pullback to the 93-90 support area, the downward momentum of crude oil has clearly subsided. While hovering around this support area, there are signs of a double bottom formation. Once the double bottom formation is successfully completed, it will form a strong support structure below and support crude oil to rebound again.
Therefore, in the short term, we can consider buying crude oil in the 93-90 range, with 95-97 as the short-term upside target! Long 
The upward trend is obvious: Buy USOIL after a pullback.After a period of consolidation and bottoming out, USOIL is currently in an upward trend, and its upward pattern is very clear based on its current structure. As USOIL steadily rises, the support level below also moves up. The short-term support has moved up to the 90-88 area, while the key support is located in the 86-84 area.
Therefore, for short-term trading, we should follow the trend and mainly go long on USOIL. If USOIL retraces to the 90-88 area, we can consider going long on USOIL. In addition, USOIL rebounded after a sharp pullback from 120 to around 77. According to the Fibonacci retracement level, the area around 98 is at the 50% retracement level and is also the upper resistance area of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart. Therefore, there is relatively strong resistance in the 98-100 area. If USOIL rebounds to the 98-100 area first, we can consider shorting USOIL appropriately. Long 
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayPolicy stimulus in emerging markets opens up the ceiling for growth
Policy-driven procurement in Asia becomes the core engine
To support the "doubling of refining capacity by 2030" plan, the Indian government increased the import quota of 20 million tons of crude oil (approximately 400,000 barrels per day) in November, and signed a long-term supply agreement with Iraq for "payment in rupees" (locking in 1.2 million barrels per day). In the first half of November, India's crude oil import volume increased by 18% year-on-year (reaching 5.6 million barrels per day), reaching a historical high. At the same time, Southeast Asian countries also stepped up their efforts: the Renze refinery in Vietnam (14 million tons per year) officially started production in December, driving a 22% increase in crude oil procurement volume in November compared to the previous month. Indonesia launched the "refinery tax refund policy", increasing processing profits by $8 per barrel, promoting the early release of replenishment demands from refining and chemical enterprises. The overall increase in Asian crude oil imports accounted for 75% of the global demand increase, becoming a core support for short-term demand.
"Discrepancy growth" in transportation and chemical demand
Unlike the decline in transportation fuel demand in Europe and the United States (U.S. gasoline consumption decreased by 2.1% year-on-year), the transportation fuel demand in emerging markets maintained a high growth rate: Indian diesel consumption increased by 7.8% due to infrastructure investment (road and port projects increased by 28% year-on-year), and the demand for aviation kerosene in Southeast Asia increased by 11% month-on-month due to the recovery of tourism (international flight volume recovered to 115% of 2019). More importantly, chemical demand formed a "secondary support" - China's new 1.5 million tons of ethylene plant started production in November, and the purchase volume of naphtha increased by 12% year-on-year; the integrated refining and chemical project of Reliance Industries (25 million tons per year) started raw material reserves, driving a 15% increase in the purchase volume of light crude oil (WTI-related varieties) compared to the previous month, forming a dual demand resilience of "transportation + chemical".
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy：59.5-60
tp:60.5-601
sl:59 Long 
Short 
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Place buy limit orders within the 15 or 30-minute timeframe, near swing lows/highs for pullback entries.
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USOIL HEIST ALERT: Thief Entry Loaded – Target Locked!🚨 The Ultimate US OIL / WTI Heist Plan – Thief Trading Style 🎯💸
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We’re aiming for a clean bullish getaway near the high-risk MA zone—where traps are set and bearish robbers lurk. Watch out for overbought zones, trend reversals, and consolidation ambushes.
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Look to place Buy Limit Orders around swing highs/lows or pullback levels on the 15m–30m timeframe.
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Set your Thief SL around the recent swing low using the 3H timeframe (example: 60.300).
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Short 
Crude oil meets resistance at high levels, it is time to go shorAlthough we have used the daily line to re-count the waves, and explained that the current rising market is in the 2nd wave rebound of the daily line, which is the sub-wave c of wave 2, the market is still in a bearish trend in the daily line. After the market has completed this wave of 2nd wave rebound and adjustment, it will continue to fall by 3 waves. In the 4-hour market, the current market has not risen above 72.90 US dollars. We can still regard it as a rebound of 3-2 waves, or a rebound of the main wave 4. The main decline wave 1 of 4 hours fell from 76.57 US dollars to 69.80 US dollars, a drop of 6.77 US dollars, and the current 4-hour main decline wave 3 fell from 72.90 US dollars to 64. .85 dollars fell to 8.05 dollars. Why can it be either 3-2 waves or 4 waves? Because the current 8.05 dollars is larger than the decline of the main decline wave 1, it can be regarded as 3 waves, and the current rebound is very strong, so it can be regarded as 4 waves, but I think from the perspective of the main decline wave 3 in 4 hours, the decline should be more than that, it should be greater than 10 US dollars, so it can also be regarded as a rebound of 3-2 waves. The key is whether this wave of rise will break 72.90 US dollars. If it breaks, it will be a sub-wave of the main decline wave 1 in 4 hours. Therefore, our trading ideas today do not have a main direction. The market will make orders when the strategy reaches that first.
Today's crude oil recommendations: 1. Short at 72.65 US dollars, stop loss 30 points, and take profit 70.60 US dollars. Short 
Long 
Long 
