The real opportunity is not over yet!As fundamentals change, new trading opportunities are gradually emerging. With the new shipping routes and rules in the Strait of Hormuz about to be officially implemented, the risk premium brought about by the previous expectation of channel blockade is gradually fading. The upward space of crude oil previously stimulated by news has also been largely given back, and the market trading logic is returning from geopolitics to supply and demand fundamentals. From a fundamental perspective, although we are still in the traditional peak season for summer demand, there has been no significant imbalance in global crude oil supply and demand. There is no persistent supply gap in the market. The current relatively tight supply issues are more concentrated in Europe, which are essentially due to geopolitical factors rather than a fundamental change in the global supply and demand structure. As new rules are gradually established, Iran's sovereignty claims are somewhat guaranteed. The market will now focus on the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran. If the negotiations proceed smoothly, the geopolitical risk premium is expected to continue to decline, and there is still room for crude oil prices to fall further. From a technical perspective, USOIL is still in a weak trend after a rebound correction. The short-term trading strategy is still to sell on rallies. The key resistance level to watch is 77-79. If the rebound is met with resistance, continue to look for opportunities to sell at higher levels. On the downside, pay close attention to the 70 level. If it breaks down effectively, further downside potential cannot be ruled out. 
Short
Long 
USOIL rally stretches into overbought territory🎯 Trade Setup:
Direction: Long from pullback
🔻 Entry: $89.20–$89.60 after bullish confirmation
🛑 Stop Loss: $85.90
🎯 Take Profit 1: $91.85
🎯 Take Profit 2: $93.50
📰 News:
WTI extended its rally as renewed U.S.–Iran tensions, tanker attacks and disruption risks around major shipping routes increased the geopolitical premium. However, the EIA reported a 2.0 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories, providing a modest bearish counterweight. The backdrop remains bullish but highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
📊 Analysis:
USOIL is trading near $90.70, above EMA 9, EMA 20, SMA 50 and SMA 200, confirming a strong bullish structure. MACD remains positive and supports further upside.
However, RSI is near 78, while Stochastic RSI is close to 98. Both indicators signal overbought conditions, increasing the probability of consolidation or a short-term pullback before continuation.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Long 
Long 
Short 
WTI Crude Oil Reversal Trap? Bears Still Hold the Advantage🛢️⚡ USOIL/WTI — "US CRUDE OIL SPOT" 🛢️⚡
💰 Energy Market Wealth Strategy Map 🗺️
📅 Day Trade & Swing Trade Setup | NYMEX · WTI · USD/BBL
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🎯 TRADE DIRECTION — BEARISH 🐻
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⚡ CURRENT MARKET SNAPSHOT (London Time — 12 June 2026)
- WTI Crude Oil Spot Price ➡️ ~$85.94/bbl (intraday low — lowest since April 2026)
- Brent Crude (XBR/USD) ➡️ ~$89.25/bbl (down -1.25% on the day)
- Natural Gas (XNG/USD) ➡️ ~$3.08/MMBtu (Henry Hub · NYMEX)
- DXY (US Dollar Index) ➡️ Firm & range-bound — geopolitical safe-haven support
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🚨 THIEF ENTRY PROTOCOL 🔫
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✅ Entry ➡️ Any price level — scalp or ride the wave, your call
✅ Flexible entry = Flexible power. Use limit, market, or pull-back entry on your timeframe.
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🎯 THIEF PROFIT TARGETS 💸
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🏎️ DAY TRADER TARGET
- TP 1 ➡️ $82.000/bbl 🏁
→ Quick scalp zone — fast execution, fast exits. Lock profit, don't be greedy.
🐢 SWING TRADER — FINAL HEIST TARGET
- TP 2 (FINAL) ➡️ $80.000/bbl 🏴☠️
→ 👮 POLICE FORCE ZONE — Institutional Support Fortress
→ Major confluence: Strong multi-timeframe support + RSI Oversold territory + Liquidity Trap + Trend Change Signal activated = ESCAPE WITH PROFIT HERE 🎯
📌 NOTE FROM THE THIEF BOSS:
» Dear Thief OG's (Ladies & Gentlemen) — I do NOT recommend locking ONLY to my TP levels.
» You are your own captain. Take profits at your own pace, your own timing, your own risk appetite.
» Make money. Then TAKE the money. That's the Thief Code. 💰🖤
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🚔 THIEF SL (STOP LOSS REFERENCE)
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🛑 SL Reference Level ➡️ $92.000/bbl
→ Placed above the last major resistance zone & institutional supply ceiling.
→ This is a REFERENCE POINT — not a mandatory order.
» Dear Thief OG's — SL placement is YOUR choice. Risk management is YOUR responsibility.
» Big players don't stop out. They adjust. You do you. 🎯
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🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH 🌐
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Keep your eyes on these energy-correlated instruments. When WTI moves, these move with it or against it. Watch all of them. Trade smart.
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📦 XBR/USD — Brent Crude Oil Spot
💲 Price: ~$89.25/bbl
🔗 Correlation: POSITIVE (Direct)
📌 Brent is the global crude benchmark. Tracks WTI closely with a ~$3–4 premium spread. If Brent continues south, WTI follows. Bearish Brent = Bearish WTI confirmation.
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📦 XNG/USD — Natural Gas (Henry Hub Spot)
💲 Price: ~$3.08/MMBtu
🔗 Correlation: MODERATE POSITIVE (Energy Sector)
📌 Both sit in the energy complex. Weakness in nat-gas signals broader energy sector softness. Rising storage builds (108 bcf added last week — above forecast) are weighing on XNG. Weak XNG adds bearish macro energy tone to WTI.
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📦 USD/CAD — US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
💲 Price: ~1.3954
🔗 Correlation: NEGATIVE (Inverse)
📌 Canada is a major crude exporter. When WTI falls, the Canadian Dollar weakens → USD/CAD rises. A bearish WTI move typically supports the USD/CAD upside. Watch for continued CAD weakness as oil softens.
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📦 USD/NOK — US Dollar vs Norwegian Krone
💲 Price: ~10.20–10.30 range (Jun 2026)
🔗 Correlation: NEGATIVE (Inverse)
📌 Norway is among the world's top natural gas and oil exporters. NOK is highly sensitive to crude prices. Falling WTI/Brent = weakening NOK = USD/NOK rises. Classic oil-currency play for the OG energy traders.
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📦 DXY — US Dollar Index
💲 Tracking: Firm and range-bound
🔗 Correlation: NEGATIVE (Inverse)
📌 Stronger USD = pressure on USD-denominated commodities including WTI. The dollar is drawing support from geopolitical safe-haven flows + cautious Fed stance. A firm DXY is a headwind for oil prices — aligns with bearish WTI bias.
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📊 FUNDAMENTALS & ECONOMICS — LIVE MARKET DATA 📰
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⚠️ This section is NEUTRAL — presenting what the market is saying. No bias toward the trade direction. Pure data. Pure facts.
🛢️ SUPPLY & INVENTORY DATA
- EIA Weekly Crude Draw (w/e 5 Jun 2026): −7.228 million barrels (7th consecutive weekly decline — exceeded the 4M forecast significantly)
- US Commercial Crude Stocks (excl. SPR): 433.7M barrels — approx. 3% BELOW 5-year seasonal average
- Cushing, Oklahoma Hub Stocks: Down 801K barrels (7th straight weekly decline)
- Combined US Commercial + SPR Stocks: Down ~90M barrels from recent peak (Saxo Bank data)
- US Refinery Utilization Rate: 94.7% of available capacity — elevated
- Crude Inputs to US Refineries: 16.9M barrels/day
- US Crude Imports (week ending 29 May): Down 4.5% vs same period last year
🌍 GLOBAL PRODUCTION DISRUPTION
- Strait of Hormuz Status: Effectively closed to most shipping since 28 February 2026 (US-Iran conflict)
- Strait of Hormuz closure = ~20% of global seaborne crude flows disrupted
- OPEC+ Middle East Production Cut: Reduced by 11M+ barrels/day in May 2026 vs pre-conflict levels
- EIA June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO): Brent avg. $105/bbl forecast for June–July (assuming Hormuz stays closed near-term)
- Brent April 2026 peak: $117.29/bbl — highest since June 2008
🕊️ GEOPOLITICAL LATEST (12 June 2026)
- President Trump delayed planned military strikes on Iran; stated a peace deal could be signed "as early as this weekend" in Europe
- Iran's semi-official Fars news agency: Tehran "likely to accept" the deal — no formal approval yet
- Trump peace deal includes: Hormuz reopening + Iran commitment to forgo nuclear weapons development
- Market remains cautious — traders note Hormuz reopening faces major logistics hurdles: mine-clearing, restarting production, repairing damaged energy infrastructure
- Kuwait and Oman strikes reported overnight, keeping energy market traders on edge
- Fitch Ratings: Expects Hormuz reopening approximately end of July 2026 — Brent avg. $87/bbl for full-year 2026
📉 DEMAND & MACRO CONTEXT
- Chinese imports of Saudi crude: Expected to decline to 333,000 bbl/day by end of June (from 1.4M bbl/day at year-end 2025) — significant demand-side bearish pressure
- Global oil demand slowdown signals amid high energy prices + US-Iran trade route uncertainty
- US Fed stance: Cautious — no confirmed rate cuts; higher-for-longer rates = stronger USD = headwind for oil prices
- FOMC Meeting Minutes: Release scheduled 17 June 2026
- Natural Gas Storage: 2.686 trillion cubic feet — 6% ABOVE 5-year average (bearish nat-gas context)
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📅 KEY MACRO CALENDAR EVENTS TO WATCH 🗓️
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📌 12 June 2026 (TODAY)
→ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (June)
→ US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count — direct production signal
📌 17 June 2026
→ EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (next release)
→ FOMC Meeting Minutes Release — Fed rate signals
📌 18 June 2026
→ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)
📌 Ongoing — Watch Daily
→ US-Iran Peace Negotiations — Hormuz reopening timeline
→ OPEC+ Emergency Output Decisions
→ EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Updates (next: 7 July 2026)
→ US Crude Inventory Reports (every Wednesday, 10:30 AM ET / 15:30 London Time)
→ Baker Hughes Weekly Oil Rig Count (every Friday)
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⚠️ RISK & DISCLAIMER 🛡️
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Trading involves substantial risk of loss. This idea is shared for educational and informational purposes only — it is NOT financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always manage your risk. Only trade what you can afford to lose. The Thief Trader is not responsible for your P&L. You are.
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🏴☠️ Stay Sharp, Trade Smart, Respect the Risk
💰 Good Luck & Godspeed — Thief OG's (Ladies & Gentlemen)
🖤 Thief Trader
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#USOIL #WTI #CrudeOil #OilTrading #EnergyMarkets #XTIUSD #BearishOil #OilShort #SwingTrade #DayTrading #OPEC #Hormuz #ThiefTrader #TradingView #ForexTrading #CommodityTrading #EnergyTrading #MacroTrading #USCrudeOil #OilPriceAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #SmartMoney #InstitutionalFlow #ThiefOGs USOIL ready to surge: 93-95 could be closer than expected !USOIL prices have gradually begun to decline, but the complex situation in the Middle East has not yet fully subsided, and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support oil prices. Furthermore, considering the current structural pattern, oil prices have rebounded multiple times from the 87.5-85.5 area, forming a clear support zone in the technical structure, limiting the current downside. The trendline support also applies to this area. Therefore, I believe USOIL is unlikely to break below the 87.5-85.5 support zone in the short term. It may even form a short-term low near this support zone, supporting a rebound and retesting the 93-95 area. Once USOIL breaks through this area during the subsequent rebound, it is expected to continue rising to the 98-100 area.
Therefore, in the short term, I will prioritize trying to go long on USOIL in the 88-86 area. Long 
Long 
Short 
Short 
Long 
Oil Remains Firm As Supply Risk DominatesCrude is not drifting higher by accident here; it is holding a structurally bullish tone because the market is still pricing real supply risk, not just headline fear. I’m treating this as a trend-continuation setup on the 4H chart, where every pullback is being judged against geopolitical flow, not just standard technical mean reversion.
Current Bias
I’m bullish on oil on the 4H to swing-trade timeframe. The near-term structure still favors buyers because supply-disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz is keeping a firm geopolitical premium under crude, even as the market digests periodic pullbacks.
Technical Posture & Price Action
From the chart, I see oil pulling back into a live reaction area after a strong advance toward the 106 region, and that keeps the setup constructive rather than broken. The broad 85 to 89 zone has already acted as a major demand base on prior tests, and the current retracement looks like a reset inside a larger bullish structure rather than a full reversal.
The higher timeframe picture suggests the market is still respecting higher-value support, while the lower timeframe pullback is simply testing whether buyers will defend around the 93 to 95 area before another push. If that support holds, the path back toward 106 and then 117 stays open.
Indicator & Volume Analysis
If I map momentum onto this setup, I’d expect RSI on the 4H to be cooling from prior strength rather than collapsing into bearish territory, which is what I want to see in a bullish continuation trade. MACD likely rolled over during the pullback, but the key is whether it stabilizes and curls higher as price defends support.
The moving-average picture should still lean constructive if price remains above the major swing base, and recent structure suggests volume likely expanded on the impulsive rallies and normalized on the retracement. That is typically healthy behavior in a bullish market because it shows demand drove the breakout and profit-taking drove the dip.
Key Fundamental Drivers
The immediate driver is still Middle East supply risk, especially any disruption tied to Hormuz shipping and the ability of Gulf producers to actually move barrels. OPEC+ has announced output increases, but those moves carry limited near-term weight if transit risk keeps real flows constrained.
That means the crude bid is being sustained by the market’s belief that physical supply vulnerability matters more right now than paper quota changes.
Macro Context
The macro backdrop is supportive because higher oil feeds directly into inflation expectations, which then bleeds into rate pricing, central-bank caution, and broader commodity rotation. In other words, oil is not trading in isolation; it is influencing how traders think about inflation, consumer pressure, and the timing of any meaningful Fed relief.
At the same time, there is a split in longer-horizon views: some banks still argue soft medium-term supply-demand fundamentals could eventually pull oil lower, but the market in front of us is trading the current disruption premium, not the distant normalization story.
Primary Risk to the Trend
The clearest invalidation is a credible US-Iran de-escalation that materially reopens Hormuz flows and reduces the supply shock premium. If the market becomes convinced that shipping risk is normalizing and OPEC barrels can actually reach the market cleanly, crude can unwind fast.
A second risk is a demand scare tied to weaker global growth, especially if recession concerns begin to outweigh supply fears. In that case, oil can stop behaving like a scarcity trade and start trading like a growth-sensitive asset again.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
The most important catalysts are Iran/US diplomacy, shipping-security updates around the Strait of Hormuz, and any fresh OPEC+ implementation signal. Beyond that, US inflation data and Fed communication matter because rising oil is feeding directly into inflation expectations and policy pricing.
So for this market, geopolitics is the first trigger, and macro is the second-order amplifier.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
Oil is a leader right now, not a lagger. It influences CAD, inflation expectations, energy equities, and sometimes broader risk sentiment because a sustained move in crude changes how traders price growth and policy at the same time.
If oil extends higher, I would expect CAD-sensitive pairs and inflation hedges to react quickly. If crude fades sharply, some of that support in commodity FX and inflation-sensitive trades can unwind with it.
Key Levels
Support Levels: 93.00 to 92.00 is the first active support band, then 89.00, with the major demand zone sitting around 85.00 to 86.00.
Resistance Levels: 100.00 is the first psychological barrier, then 106.21, followed by 117.71, with a larger extreme reference near 119.48.
Stop Loss (SL) & Invalidation Point: I would place the main bullish invalidation below 88.80 for a swing setup, because a sustained break under that area would signal the pullback is no longer healthy and the market is losing its higher-support structure.
Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP1 at 100.00, TP2 at 106.21, TP3 at 117.71, and an aggressive extension target near 119.48 if geopolitical stress intensifies.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
My bias on oil is bullish, and I still see this chart as a buy-the-dip structure unless price starts losing the 92 area decisively and especially the 89 to 88.80 invalidation zone. The technical picture says this is a retracement inside strength, while the fundamental picture says the market still respects real supply disruption risk far more than symbolic output adjustments.
For execution, I’d frame the trade around support holding first, not around chasing candles into resistance. As long as crude stays above the key support band, I’m targeting 100, then 106.21, and then 117.71, with the understanding that the entire bullish thesis can weaken quickly if there is a credible diplomatic breakthrough that normalizes flows through Hormuz. Long 
Crude Oil Long Setup! Buyers Preparing Next Expansion🚨💰 THIEF OG'S BLUEPRINT: WTI/US OIL ENERGY CAPITAL FLOW HEIST 🛢️📉🔥
📊 PLAN STATUS: BULLISH CONFIRMED ✅
🕵️♂️ Strategy: EDSMA 200 Pullback + Layered Looting (Limit Order Stacking)
Fellow Thieves & Energy Bandits, the vault is mapped! Price is staging a classic EDSMA 200 Moving Average pullback – the ultimate institutional trap reset. We're not chasing; we're patiently waiting for price to descend into our Layered Looting Zone. This is surgical precision, not gambling. 🧠⚔️
🚪 ENTRY: THE "LAYERED HEIST" METHOD 🔑
We deploy the Thief Strategy – escaping slippage by stacking multiple limit buy orders. Scale into the position as the market dips its toes into our liquidity pool. 💧💸
🎯 BUY LIMIT LAYERS (Incremental Looting):
▪️ Layer 1: 94.000
▪️ Layer 2: 92.000
▪️ Layer 3: 90.000
🧠 PRO TIP: You can extend layers down to 88.000 based on your capital & risk appetite. Average in like a silent ghost. 👻
🚔 TARGET: POLICE FORCE RESISTANCE 🚨
The "Police" (Strong Resistance + Overbought Signals) always sets a trap for the greedy. We secure the bag BEFORE the ambush. The technical oscillator scream + supply zone sits right at 105.000. Don't get caught slipping; that's where the sirens blare. 🚔⛓️
🏁 PRIMARY ESCAPE ROUTE (TP): 105.000
⚠️ OG NOTE: I'm not recommending you set only my TP. You're the master of your own heist. You make money, you take money – secure partial profits at YOUR discretion. No loyalty, just logic. 💯
💀 STOP LOSS: THE EMERGENCY EXIT 🆘
Even master thieves have a back door. If the structural floor collapses and the institution shakes us out, we live to steal another day. Capital preservation over ego.
🩸 HARD STOP (Thief's Floor): 86.000
⚠️ OG NOTE: Not recommended to set only my SL. Adjust based on your vault size. A clean escape is better than a broken hero. 🦸♂️❌
🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS & INTER-MARKET SPY GLASS 🔎
Keep your eyes on the accomplices. Oil doesn't move alone:
AMEX:XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR): The equity side of the heist. If AMEX:XLE reclaims the 90.00 level, it confirms the "risk-on" flow into energy.
AMEX:USO (United States Oil Fund): Tracking the crude futures curve. Watch for volume spikes above 78.50 to validate institutional inflow.
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index): The ultimate snitch. Currently sitting near 98.70, rising for a third straight day on strong US PMI data. A DXY above 99.00 puts pressure on commodities; a breakdown below 98.00 is the green light for bulls .
XBR/USD (Brent Crude): The big brother. With spot Brent hovering around $130, the WTI-Brent spread has blown out to historic levels – tracking this dislocation is critical for timing entries .
🌍 REAL-TIME MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL FEED 📡 (Verified April 24, 2026)
⚠️ CRITICAL REALITY CHECK: This intel is live market data. We trade what IS, not what we hope.
🔥 THE MIDDLE EAST SUPPLY SHOCK (This Changes Everything)
WTI just surged 5% to $97.65/bbl as of today's session . This follows a 3.1% rally on April 23 that closed at $95.85 . The move is driven by escalating Iran tensions and a massive supply disruption.
Goldman Sachs reports Persian Gulf oil supply plunged by 14.5 million barrels in April, with recovery expected to take "several months" .
IEA confirms the crisis: Global oil supply dropped a record 10.1 million barrels/day in March to 97 million bpd – the largest single-month decline ever recorded. April losses are projected to hit 4.4 million barrels .
The Strait of Hormuz remains critically bottlenecked. April throughput is still below 3.8 million bpd versus 20+ million bpd pre-crisis. Alternative export routes via Saudi western coast and UAE Fujairah have expanded to 7.2 million bpd but nowhere near enough to close the gap .
US SPR Emergency Release: The DOE has initiated an additional 10-million-barrel exchange from Bryan Mound, building on prior releases totaling 172 million barrels from US commitments. Bids were due April 6 .
📊 FOMC & DOLLAR DYNAMICS
The Fed meets April 28-29. Market pricing shows a 0% probability of a rate cut – 99%+ odds of holding at 3.50-3.75% . The hot March CPI print (3.3% YoY, driven by a 21.2% monthly spike in gasoline) gave the FOMC full cover to stay put.
Dollar strengthening continues: The DXY climbed for a third day to 98.796, supported by strong US PMIs (Manufacturing 54, Services 51.3) and hawkish Fed expectations . A strong dollar is typically a headwind for oil, but supply fear is currently overpowering FX dynamics.
🔮 WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
April 28-29 FOMC Meeting: Powell's press conference tone on inflation will move the dollar and ripple into commodities. If he calls the CPI spike "transitory Iran noise," risk assets could rally.
Iran Negotiation Status: Reports that Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf resigned from US negotiations (denied by some Iranian journalists) have added confusion. Any breakthrough in talks would crater the fear premium; any breakdown adds fuel .
IEA Demand Warning: The agency just slashed its 2026 demand forecast from +730,000 bpd growth to an 80,000 bpd contraction – "higher for longer" prices are destroying demand, especially in Asia .
⚠️ STRATEGIC NOTE FOR THIS SETUP
Current price action at $97.65 is well ABOVE our highest entry layer of $94.00. For this blueprint to activate, we need a pullback. Given the supply shock momentum, that pullback may depend entirely on ceasefire headlines or FOMC hawkishness. Patience is the play. Don't chase panic – let price come to your layers.
🤙 THIEF OG MOTIVATION: MINDSET OVER MONEY 🧠💎
"The market doesn't steal your money; your ego hands it over. Be patient. The silent ninja slips past the guards that the loud army wakes up." 🥷
"Fear is the lock, discipline is the key. Execute the plan without emotion. Steal the pips and vanish before the reversal sirens blink." 🚨🔑
"When the herd panics, the thief calculates. Let headlines scream – you stack your limits and wait." 🛢️💀
⚡️ FINAL DISCLAIMER FOR THE CREW:
This idea is the blueprint, not the Bible. Entertainment + Education only. Always conduct your own heist research. You're the boss of your own trading floor. 🏦
🚀 SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON IF YOU'RE LOADING UP THE LAYERS! DROP A 🛢️ IN THE COMMENTS IF YOU'RE RIDING WITH THE THIEF OG'S! Long 
Long 
USOIL may continue to fluctuate within the 95-85 range.USOIL is currently trading in a narrow range between 90 and 93, but it is relatively weak. The easing of tensions between the US and Iran has reduced market concerns about disruptions to the crude oil supply chain, limiting the potential for a significant rise in crude oil prices; however, the arrival of the peak season for crude oil demand has provided substantial support for the price of USOIL.
From a technical perspective, USOIL is currently under pressure due to the technical head and shoulders structure, and will be under pressure in the 95-97 range for the short term. The current support/resistance level is in the 91-90 range. If USOIL remains above 91-90, there is a chance it could test the 95-97 range in the short term. If USOIL falls below the 91-90 range, it is likely to continue its decline to the 87-85 range.
Since USOIL does not have a clear trend in the short term, we can consider using a range-bound trading strategy to buy low and sell high.
Short-term technical support: 91-90 / 87-85
Short-term technical resistance: 95-97 / 102-104
Therefore, in the short term, if USOIL rebounds to the 95-97 area first, I might consider shorting USOIL; if it retraces to the 87-85 area first, I might prioritize going long on USOIL. Short 
After the rebound, sentiment turned cautious as prices fell backAfter a strong breakthrough of the 100 yuan mark, the price fluctuated at high levels during the Asian session, accompanied by downward pressure. Although the overall bullish structure remains unchanged, short-term indicators suggest a need for correction after overbought conditions, so it is not advisable to aggressively chase the highs.
The price gapped up in early Asian trading today, reaching a high of around $106.83, before encountering significant profit-taking pressure. The price has now fallen back to around $102 and is fluctuating. This trend indicates that while geopolitical factors (such as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz) have provided strong support for oil prices, selling pressure at higher levels is also significant, and the market is digesting the gains.
Short-term support levels: The first support level is at 102.00 (the area of dense moving averages on the hourly chart), and the strong support level is at the psychological starting point of the breakout at 100.00.
Short-term resistance levels: Initial resistance is in the 103.50-104.00 area (near the point of decline). If the 106.00 level is tested again and fails to hold, there will still be a risk of pullback.
The current candlestick pattern shows an initial "dark cloud cover" formation, and the short-term momentum indicator has formed a death cross on the hourly chart, suggesting that the bears are testing the support level below.
Entry point (aggressive): If the price retraces to the 100.50-101.00 range and stabilizes, a small long position can be attempted, with a stop loss placed below 99.50. The target is 103.50-104.00. Above the 100-dollar mark, a deep decline is not expected.
Selling position (conservative): Given the pullback after the Asian session's rise, if the price rebounds to the 104.00-104.50 range and encounters resistance, a short position can be attempted with a stop loss at 105.20 and a target around 102.00.
TVC:USOIL FXPRO:USOILK2026 PURPLETRADING:USOIL FOREXCOM:USOIL PURPLETRADING:USOIL Long 
OIL awaits further guidance from the geopolitical situation.The core driver of this round of oil price increases remains supply-side concerns. The risk of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persists, and with the US-Iran conflict entering its fifth week, the market has largely priced in potential supply disruptions. Looking at the charts, after stabilizing above $100, US oil did not accelerate its upward momentum but instead entered a narrow trading range, reflecting a consolidation phase after the continuous rally.
Technically, the short-term moving average system maintains a bullish alignment, with the EMA50 providing dynamic support around $97.77, indicating that the main upward trend remains intact. However, it's worth noting that the 4-hour RSI indicator showed signs of weakening after reaching overbought territory above 74, suggesting a potential for a short-term technical pullback.
Given that geopolitical risk premiums have not yet subsided and the overall trend remains bullish, short-term trading should maintain a "buy on dips" strategy. Aggressive traders can consider a small long position in the $100.5-$101 range, with a stop-loss below $99.5; more conservative traders should wait for the $98-$98.5 range for a more secure entry. The first upside target is $103.5, and a break above this level could test the $105-$107 range.
It's worth noting that the combination of overbought RSI and easing geopolitical sentiment could trigger a short-term sell-off. If oil prices decisively break below $98, the validity of the short-term bullish structure needs to be reassessed; in that case, a wait-and-see approach is advisable.
TVC:USOIL PURPLETRADING:USOIL PURPLETRADING:USOIL FOREXCOM:USOIL GBEBROKERS:USOIL Long 
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