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UVXY

Ponzi Schemes, Margin Calls, and the Beginning of the EndMarket preview: - After a comedic but painful day of PA on Friday, with the last few shorts in the market getting squeezed out of their positions (again), futures are showing some light weakness on Monday morning. Archegos Capital failed to meet a critical margin call last week, leading to billions in losses, and other stocks linked to the fund, such as Nomura, and Credit Suisse, were also battered by over 10% before recovering some losses. Margin call you say? Hmm, I wonder how that happened in a market where everyone is drunk on margin debt? - The bulls went full nuclear on Friday, and the S&P is set to open down around half a percent to 3,945.62, with the Dow also down half a percent at 32,772, the Nasdaq down 0.15% to 12,948.25, and the Russell down around 0.75% to 2,202.10. - Vix is seeing a light bid and is back at a 20 handle after kissing a new post March crash low of 18.70 (we've now filled the final gap). The irrational exuberance on every single dip is really getting frustrating. I just read that 44% of US Treasuries are now held by the Fed and foreign official institutions. If that isn't a Ponzi, then what is? Will the Fed ever be able to normalize policy, or will they watch the entire global financial system go down in flames because of their blind obsession with debt? Something tells me the bond market will make the decision for them. - The US10Y Treasury yield is sitting comfortably at a 1.64% handle, but it notably off the recent high of 1.754% (for now). The US30Y also retreated back to 2.348%, and continues to skip along key support levels. - European markets traded mixed, with the CAC40 up by 0.27%, and the Dax up 0.27%, with the FTSE 100 down 0.80%, and the SMI down 0.30%. Asian markets were mixed also, with the Hang Seng up 0.45%, the CSI 300 down 0.20%, and the Nikkei 225 down 0.75%. - Gold is down around 0.30% to 1,724, with Silver down by as much as 1%. We're now trading around 24.82. Platinum is up 1%, and is sitting at 1,196, while Copper traded lower by 0.73% to 4.04, and Palladium fell by 3% to 2,595. - Crude is up notably, with WTI up around half a percent, and trading at 61.25, and Brent up half a percent also, and trading around 64.92. - The US Dollar (DXY) is levitating around 92.80, and looks poised to melt higher on possible month end selling. - Lots of data coming this week, of course, but the number one print I'm looking forward to is March Payrolls on Friday. - Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
27
UVXY & VIX about to MOVE?Signs of an incoming swing upwards. Move index showing signs of a big volatility spike. UVXY money flow showing money is piling into the hedge as they did back in February 2020. SPY CMF showing the big money has exited (not shown on this chart). Bullish divergence marked on the charts RSI and CMF. Higher lows on Thursday and Friday. Wednesday would have been the same if it weren't for the Powell Pump in the afternoon. Not investment advice. I am not an expert. Good luck to all!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Addicted2vtec
30
King Dollar is Back, BabyHaving met our previous target of 92.50, then cooling off a bit in recent trade, we're seeing the dollar make a run for a potential new near term high. Our new target is the 200MA (M) around 95.25. If long ended yields catch intraday support off their 21 day EMA's, we could see another leg higher toward 2% on the 10Y yield, and the 2.5% level on the 30Y yield, implying a rough month/quarter end for both the bond, and stock market. Let's see what happens as the majors lose critical supports...
TVC:DXYLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
7
VIX Futures Price Curve Vs. VIXSimple enough. The market is showing extreme divergence between Futures contracts priced for next month, and Futures contracts priced for Q4. This is the largest divergence seen within this Futures cycle. My theory is that it could be indicative of a bottom in VIX and the market pricing for more serious volatility events later in the year. Key: Bolder, lighter lines: Near-term Finer, darker lines: Longer-term This utilized VIX futures priced between next month and November.
CBOE:VXJ2021Long
by RogueEconomics
VOLATILITY - $VIX - Q1-Q2 Bullish Elliot Wave ForecastJust working on the forecast model. Practice makes perfect. This is my bullish Elliot Wave Forecast. I think bullish (for VIX) - just look at M1 for a start, but there is more investigation to be done... However: “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” - F. Scott Fitzgerald Always need to have multiple threads in order to survive any sort of market or economic condition! Should we minimize damage, or is the best defense a good offense? GLHF
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
2
Is the November Gap Parade Back?Based on the seemingly neverending optimistic narratives in the MSM, you'd think the economy is a rocket ship, heading for the promise land, where every family in the US is going to be taken care of by the government, and Fed, who have no agenda other than to do everything in their power to help you. Your thinking about the stock market, and with jobless claims coming in this morning at 712k vs 725k expected, along with over 4M continuing claims still plaguing the labour market, we're not quite seeing the recovery we're reading about on main street. In fact, at over 700k initial claims, we're running at over 4 times the pre-covid levels, and in actuality, the total number of Americans on some form of income benefits is still over 20 Million. I guarantee you won't hear that fact discussed in the MSM. Mean while, Wall Street has never been happier, and more successful than they have been over the past year. The US added 50 new billionaires in a year, and the top wealthiest saw their wealth increase by over 30%. Anyone on main street see their wealth increase over 30%, other than the gamblers diving head first into risk? I didn't think so. The 10Y Treasury saw a strong auction yesterday, but the headline imo is the fact that we saw a yield of 1.52%, vs the prior yield of 1.15%. Rates are still rising rapidly folks, and the CTA's clearly didn't cover as many analysts expected. From a technical standpoint, we're looking at downside in the yield to 1.41% (21 day EMA), and then the 1.31% level, which is the 100MA (w). With 2% just above us and calling for a test, it won't be long until the 10Y is over 2% and the majors are down 20%. This is not even a dramatic projection, but the base case according to Morgan Stanley. The Dollar (DXY) saw a strong rejection at our target, around 92.50, and after selling off toward the 91.60 level this morning, looks poised to rally hard back toward the recent highs. In volatility, we looking at a relentless sell off since the March 4th high of 31.9 on the Vix. But, we appear to be finding support around the March 3rd low, at a 22 handle. In metals, both Gold and Silver are catching a strong bid, potentially off the back of the stimulus proposal decimating the dollar's purchasing power further. We're also seeing Platinum, Copper, and Palladium rally as well. In oil, WTI is back at a 65 handle after some brief turbulence, and we remain on track to see a 70 handle before long. If not, perhaps we'll hear news about another "hit" to supply, forcing the price increase. You know the game. On the majors, we're seeing the type of price action that makes most traders feel sick. The gap ups are back, and look a lot like November 2020, when we saw M1 blow up by the largest magnitude in history. The Green ascending channel on SPY has been broken while we all slept, (those fuckers), and we're looking at a possible test of the top of the recent wedge formation around 393, before a possible continuation of the downtrend. This move would put us within a couple points of the ATH, which is nuts. Fibonacci would be rolling over in his grave at these Frankenstein retracements. Thanks for your time today guys and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at Hedge of the World for our live analysis which begins at 9:30AM. FYI we're offering 30% off our monthly membership, today only. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
Wave spikes Looks there there should be a little short term spike for tomorrow. We are going in this wave pattern of spikes each going higher with the increase of volatility and looks like this isn't going to reside anytime soon. Curious to see it unfold with both DXY and the ES1! at different critical levels and see if they resume their course they've started this past week. If we break the blue dotted trend then we will officially break out of a descending triangle that started since last March. That all folks
TVC:VIX
by moonman777
7
Anyone Else Feeling Car Sick?US markets are treading water on Monday morning, ahead of the US cash open, but the Nasdaq is seeing some pressure amid another surge in the 10Y yield back toward the 1.61% level. The Biden Administration has successfully won the Senate vote on the $1.9T stimulus package, which should now see the bill go back to the house for final senate approved changes, and then to Biden's desk for signature. Typically, this would be a sell the news event, particularly because this is such an important time for household spending/debt levels. The issue I see now, is when this money is rapidy spent (if it hasn't been already), and then what happens? Let's see how long it takes before we see more talks of another stimulus package, which if even suggested, could see the dollar tank, and crypto fortified as the only logical path forward. Oil rallied hard on a drone attack on Aramco (again), which saw Brent rise as high as a 71 handle, before pairing some gains. Remember last time all the investment banks went bullish on oil, and then Aramco facilities saw a "rocket" attack? Interesting timing, and how these things just happen to work out for the investments banks everytime. Just another conspiracy in this new world order of secrecy and lies. We'll be looking forward to key (long end) treasury auctions this week, which should be very telling considering the long end is tanking. Either the (anticipated) increase of supply with all the new fiscal debt, or the shrinking demand as rates rise, has the bond market on thin ice. With the 10Y continuing to put pressure on growth, we could be in for one hell of a week. We're seeing a clear rotation out of growth and into value, which should continue for sometime, sending the broader indexes lower in the interim. China's CSI was down by as much as 3.5% this morning, which officially puts the CSI in correction territory. As we noted last week, the Nasdaq fell by as much as 10% as well from the ATH, putting it in correction territory also. With european markets mixed, and analysts across Wall Street expecting everything from a global market crash, to an immediate term rebound, it seems everyone has the same question on their mind, "when the fuck is this market finally going to see an actual correction?" Vix is up around 5% on the day and sitting at a 26 handle, after being hammered on Friday by as much as 14%. We're seeing some pressure as I'm typing, because we're being panic bid into the open (as usual). The irrational exuberance is apparently back after the perceived value from last week's light selling. The bulls are infinitely deep pocketed it seems, and exclusively like converting cash into assets. I wonder what will happen when things actually correct, and if they'll remember how to sell those assets. Hopefully there will be someone there to buy them when the time comes. Maybe we'll find out as early as this week... *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
TVC:US10YLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
Jobless Claims Rise on Thursday, Markets on EdgeGlobal futures are mixed on Wednesday morning, while the US majors are extending losses, after an ugly session yesterday, which saw the Nasdaq (QQQ) lose the critical neckline, after losing the 50 day MA earlier on in the week. The SPY is poised to open at the 50 day MA around 380.70, which has acted as strong support as recently as Jan 29th. If we see a break below the 50 day MA today, we could be looking at massive downside to the Jan 29th low of around 368, which is sitting just above the 100 day MA (367.24). If we see a strong bounce off of, I don't know, more jawboning by Powell today maybe, we may see another test of the 21 day EMA at 385.77. In volatility, we saw the Vix catch a nice bid off of yesterday's weakness to a 27 handle, and as I mentioned in our live analysis, the Vix is on course for another spike in the immediate term, potentially to the 37 level, or higher. We'll have to closely monitor the remarks by Powell, and the media narratives around the stimulus as well. On the data front, Jobless Claims came in hot with 745k claims vs the 725k expected. But, continuing claims fell to 4.29 Million from 4.42 Million last week. No notable response by markets as yet, but wait for the open, and we should get a better sense of sentiment. I wish the Put/Call would give an indication of a shift in sentiment, but it appears to be skewed perpetually. With the 10Y yield at 1.47% and holding firm, we really shouldn't be seeing a sharp risk on move like the one we saw on Monday, but rather a cautious tone in anticipation of a disappointment from Powell's speech. If we get talk of YCC, and Powell says he's going to start buying long dated treasuries to keep rates low (changing the rules on bears again), I'll hit the fucking roof. Best of luck out there today guys, and trade safe. Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12
The journey to 408, and the psychology behind it.For starters, spy hit my target perfectly from yesterdays post: Secondly, we are in the midst of finishing the final wave 5 structure on the largest possible degree (dating back to the 1800's. Currently I have this 5 ending at 4083.50, but I wasn't sure how we would get there until today. >Sub-wave 3 impulses out of the rising wedge which spy has formed since September. >Dumps it into 3\19, but not as deep as everyone expects it to (bear trap) >Has one more final false breakout to trap the last of the bulls (bull trap) >Then we drop to 250 based on my good friends prediction here: I 110% expect a lot more bull \ bear traps along the way, and it is not going to be a smooth ride, but the numbers all check out perfectly. Be cautious, and as always, trade safely. 💸
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by notoriousbids
4
MACRO - VOLATILITY & SP500 -$VIX - The Gamma Bubble - Blood MoonThe Gamma Bubble is about to burst. - High implied volatility on VIX... Barely moved during the market selloff on Friday. I think when indicators that usually inverse each other stop correlating with each other, investors are just completely exiting the markets. - Over $100 Bn in bonds liquidated... Liquidity in the bond market was the only reason that I was able to remain bullish with some confidence in the equities market until now. - Dark Pool Index indicating that institutional investors have been exiting positions since January. The last time such a movement was seen was in Feb. of last year. - SPY with a scythe... algorithms selling off, while price being painted up for gamma exposure and theta burn: In today's market, the lit pool markets are secondary to dark pool markets and the options market. True price discovery occurs after options have expired. - $1.9 T Stimulus Bill passed, but I speculate it will only increase the scale of the liquidity crisis to come... - $100 Bn~ was about the amount that the MM would need to have paid out from their exposed short positions on $GME at its previous high, when their 140% short interest via naked shorts was raided by retail investors, before Robinhood and other brokerages restricted buying. We saw exposed institutions liquidate their long positions across their market to defend their short position here. - Congress only increased media exposure to the issue, and GME is preparing for another wave of retail impulse buying... By Elliot Wave Theory, the next impulse wave will take $GME higher than the previous high. - Retail investors are certain to use at least some of their stimulus to fuel this movement. - Not only GME, but AMC seems to be a likely candidate to converge with GME's price, via short squeeze + gamma squeeze. There are other highly suppressed stocks that are also rising. - If SPY also begins a downtrend, it is the greatest candidate to gamma squeeze downwards, due to colossal implied volatility caused by the strength of the MM's algorithmic pinning. Simply put, if SPY falls, it will fall hard and fast, and the OTM puts will fuel the short squeezes even more. This is big trouble. A liquidity crisis in the making, if the short side institutions do not unwind their positions. - GME - AMC I took a hedge position, risked off, and began short positions on Feb. 10, more based on technical indicators, but I think this is more confirmation. We will have to see if the Stimulus Bill can prolong this, but I think many are in agreement that a correction is imminent.
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
8