Idea for VIX: - VIX finally has touched pre-COVID levels. The debt and margin fueled recovery is complete. - Markets hitting ATH's every day (nearly a record for days in a row). - Yet every warning is flashing, market components are down, yet indices grind up on low volume. - Liquidity is flowing out, tapering has already begun, global credit impulse is negative,...
The Dollar (DXY) is seeing heavy inflows today, and we're retesting wedge resistance for the 3rd time in a couple weeks. King Dollar, is that you? Don't forget, if we recapture the wedge, we have immense upside implying a major market move to the downside if we break through. We may be finally nearing the end of this disgusting ponzi scheme we call a market...
Vol has awoken. I repeat. Vol has awoken. Bears UNITE! 1 min chart shows clear bottoming pattern, plus impulsive price action to the upside. I'm seeing impulsive fractals meaning 1-2 1-2 With all the new supply of dead bulls in the future, we'll have to turn them into hamburger or something. How does bankrupt hamburger taste? Would you like some forbearance...
US Futures are trading sideways on Tuesday morning - we're sitting near the ATH's, and showing no signs of letting up. The bears have vanished again at the opportune time for bulls, setting us up for further upside this week off the back of nothing but relentless and persistent fiat debasement by central banks, along with the corporate buy-back ponzi. We're...
US Futures are drifting lower on Wednesday morning after the MBA Mortgage Applications Index sank -6.9% and the ADP Employment Change came in at 692k vs the 400k expected. This sets us up for a potentially strong payrolls print on Friday, which at this point may lead to a risk off move on the assumption of tighter monetary policy as a response. According to...
US Futures are trading at or near their ATH's ahead of Tuesday's cash open with the S&P flat at 4,281, the Dow up 0.27% to 34,258, the Russell up 0.22% to 2,321, and the Nasdaq down -0.16% to 14,490 as of 8:30AM. The US dollar (DXY) is gaining some ground and is up around 0.30% on the day to 92.16, while the US10Y yield traded around 1.50% after recovering from a...
US Futures traded relatively flat on Monday morning, and are sitting near ATH's to start the week. The Dow is down -0.7% to 34,308, the S&P up 0.9% to 4,276, the Nasdaq up 0.32% to 14,384, and the Russell down -0.11% to 2,329.50 as of 9AM. It's insane to me to watch quantitative hedge funds underperforming retail traders, while asset valuations becomes more and...
Idea for Stocks: The Lotka–Volterra model makes a number of assumptions, not necessarily realizable in nature, about the environment and evolution of the predator and prey populations: 1. The prey population finds ample food at all times. 2. The food supply of the predator population depends entirely on the size of the prey population. 3. The rate of change of...
Idea for QQQ: - Wave frequencies synced. - Distribution cycle mapped. GLHF - DPT
Vix (log scale) is extending losses after the existing home sales print this morning - we're now down over 16% on the week after last week's spike to 21, and approaching the long term support trendline (in red). Let's see if markets finally roll over, and Vix becomes the most crowded trade on the street again.
Long UVXY 32C Jul 23 for 5.30 debit SPX possible LPSY and top of risk range:
Idea for Volatility: - Wyckoff Cycle Mapped. - Wave Frequencies synced. - Cause and Effect determined. - Greater Cycle: - Bonds Volatility looks ready: - China Credit Impulse turns negative, consequently the global credit impulse turns negative. - Liquidity Flow: Credit > Bonds/Currencies > Commodities > Stocks. Fighting the Fed: - Reading the Curve: -...
Most of my ideas have been outlined in detail in prior posts which can be quickly viewed through my profile. I wanted to add this as another possible interesting indicator of a possible upcoming market crash. You can see the last bull flag in 2020 that led to the SPY COVID-19 market crash and ridiculous UVXY rally. Will we see a repeat of the everything...
That is all. GLHF - DPT
Based on the US equity options Put/Call, most traders are on the wrong side of the boat heading into tomorrow's (quad-witch) opex. Hold on to your hats, folks!
According to Spot Gamma, below 4,200 on the S&P is risk off. Let's see if the bulls can recover and get us back above this critical level, or if the bears hammer us lower and take advantage of the BTFD volume. We're sitting just above trendline support (in green), and MA supports just below (21EMA and 50DMA). If we see any real risk off moves today or tomorrow on...