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UVXY

THE WEEK AHEAD: USO, EWZ, XLF; VIX/VIX DERIVATIVESEARNINGS: Earnings kick off in earnest this week with a bevy of financials (WFC, GS, JPM, C, BAC, MS). Generally speaking, I haven't played these in the past due to low background implied, and nothing has changed in that regard this go-around from a premium selling standpoint: WFC (30/21), GS (27/24), JPM (20/21), C (16/23), BAC (0/22), MS (0/24). That being said, it looks like the financial sector exchange-traded fund XLF (5/16) has put in a multi-year double-top, so I could see taking a bearish assumption directional shot on the notion that earnings in this sector may disappoint in a low interest rate environment. For example, the XLF February 21st 30/32 long put vertical costs 1.04/contract to put on, has a max loss metric of .96 and a break even of 30.96 versus a Friday close of 30.69, which are the kind of the risk one to make one/break even at/near where the underlying is currently trading metrics I like to see out of these. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS >10% OF STOCK PRICE: UNG (36/40), February SLV (33/20), July USO (32/32), April EWZ (29/26), June GLD (26/12), January '21 Pictured here is an EWZ 20-delta short strangle set up in the first expiry in which the at-the-money short straddle is paying greater than 10% of the stock price, 1.91 credit, delta/theta 0/1.41. Although I would ordinarily go with the underlying paying in the shortest duration, we will start to run into seasonality issues with UNG in the February or March cycles (depending, of course, on Mother Nature), so would rather not hit that underlying non directionally here. And USO can be somewhat of a pain to trade due to its smallness. BROAD MARKET WITH THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS >10% OF STOCK PRICE: EEM (66/16), September EFA (20/11), December SPY (14/12), November QQQ (9/17), September IWM (0/15), September Well, we're in a volatility lull here, so this comes as no surprise that shorter duration isn't paying. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 12.56, with the March, April, and May /VX contracts trading at 16.04, 16.56, and 16.80, respectively, so term structure trades remain viable in those months. VXX and UVXY -- my go-to derivatives instruments -- both hit new 52 week lows last week, and VXX finished the week at 14.12, UVXY at 11.59. Although VIX has room to trundle lower from here, it probably wouldn't be a bad thing to pull off a few units in profit put on higher up the ladder and then wait for the next >25% pop in VIX (which would be a modest pop at 16 or so) to start legging back in.
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
2
The creeping VIX-just what the fed orderedSlow & boring-just what the fed ordered (or printed). Our manufacturing data may be in the dumps but we're sure good at manufacturing lies and artificial markets. Volatility coiling up-watch for possible wave to (D) before retracement/sideways movement to (E). I want a solid test of upper trend line-Vix could blow through the roof or coil up for months until after apex of this triangle. For now, they're keeping a tight lid on this.. The circus is in town and we're all in it. (renko blocks not playable from tradingview ideas window - I'll update this idea by posting snapshots as price moves along or when I feel something significant is happening)
TVC:VIXLong
by gghsusa
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: CHWY, LULU, COST, ORCL EARNINGS; EEM, VIXEARNINGS: It's a fairly light week for earnings, but there is some highly liquid underlyings to play for volatility contraction: CHWY (--/74): Monday, After Market Close. LULU (64/42): Wednesday After Market Close. COST (44/23): Thursday, After Market Close. ORCL (42/26): Thursday, After Market Close. Pictured here is a CHWY January 17th 21 short put at the 20 delta, paying .78 at the mid price as of Friday close with a 20.22 break even. In this particular case, I'm not looking to play earnings for volatility contraction, but waiting for earnings to pass, as well as lock up to end, which is supposed to occur on the 11th (Wednesday) with a whopping 83% of outstanding shares subject to lockup. Depending on what happens with the share price at the end of lock up, as well as implied volatility, I will look to put on a play thereafter. The only other play I'm potentially interested in is LULU, where the January 17th 190/200/260/270 iron condor is paying 2.61 with delta/theta metrics of -1.69/5.35. It's not a one-third the width setup, but LULU has had a tendency to move, so my inclination would be to go wider to stay clear of potential friskiness. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: UNG (55/54) TLT (44/13) USO (21/30) GLD (19/10) GDXJ (18/27) With the possible exception of UNG, shorter duration premium selling isn't ideal here, with rank below 50% and 30-day below 35%. As an interesting aside, however -- compare and contrast premium selling in UNG and USO versus trading /NG and /CL directly, using at-the-money short straddle pricing: UNG January At-the-Money Short Straddle: 2.68 versus 18.03 (14.9%) /NG January At-the-Money Short Straddle: .309 versus 2.25 (13.1%) USO April At-the-Money Short Straddle: 1.75 versus 12.32 (14.2%) /CL March At-the-Money Short Straddle: 6.76 versus 59.07 (11.4%) BROAD MARKET: EEM (8/16) QQQ (7/16) IWM (6/16) SPY (2/13) First Expiries in Which At-the-Money Short Straddle Credit Exceeds 10% of Value of Underlying: EEM: June: --4.48 versus 43.07 (10.4%) QQQ: June -- 21.49 versus 205.00 (10.5%) IWM: September -- 20.05 versus 162.83 (12.3%) SPY: September 34.46 versus 314.87 (10.9%) As with the exchange-traded funds, short duration premium selling isn't paying here, so your choices are to hand sit or sell in higher implied volatility expiries farther out in time. I've been largely opting for the latter, while simultaneously exercising some restraint as to sizing, since the last thing you want to do is tie up buying power with longer-dated setups, only to have literally nothing left over to take advantage of shorter duration volatility pops. Secondarily, I've been managing these longer-dated setups more aggressively, taking them off in profit in many cases a good deal short of 50% max. FUTURES: /6B (60/12) /NG (55/58) /CL (21/29) /6E (20/5) /GC (19/10) As with the exchanged-traded funds, volatility is in natty and oil with /NG paying in short duration (January). One thing I noticed is that /CL expiry-specific premium selling doesn't necessarily lend itself to going longer-dated (at least at this moment in time) since implied is about the same regardless of where you go (i.e., January: 28.9%; February: 29.5%; March: 29.3%), so all you're basically getting paid for is duration, as compared to -- for example -- expiry-specific implied in SPY, which generally increases incrementally over time (i.e., January: 14.5%; February: 15.7%; March: 16.8%, etc.). This is not necessarily a bad thing, just an observation of what you're getting by going out farther in time with /CL options versus other instruments that have a sort of expiry-specific implied volatility "term structure." VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished Friday at 13.62, with /VX futures contracts trading at 16.32, 17.51, 17.63, and 18.19 in January, February, March, and April respectively. Consequently, the contango environment remains productive for term structure trades in those expiries, although it's apparent that you won't get much trading February over January due to the fairly small differential between where those two contracts are trading at the moment. In practical terms, the February 17/19 short call vertical is paying .65 with a 17.65 break even versus 17.51; the March 17/19, .65, with a 17.65 versus 17.63. In other words, it doesn't pay to go longer in duration (February versus March) here ... . As before, I'll look to put on bullish assumption plays in VXX or UVXY at extreme lows (these setups don't work well in VIX directly due to /VX term structure) and add bearish assumption in VIX, VXX, and/or UVXY on VIX pops to greater than 20 on top of any VIX term structure trades that I'm working ... .
NYSE:CHWY
by NaughtyPines
Locked and loaded for the BIG correction! Bought TECS calls expiring January 2020 and UVXY Calls expiring September 30th . Don't flinch if they drop. Just wait and cash in when they pop! I'll update weekly. Use only risk capital. Target 1 for TECS is $21 and target 2 is $30 UVXY Target 1 $50 and target 2 is $75 Because they are options, reduce your position and be patient. I set no hard stop on those. The above are only my opinions and are not trading advices. This is just something to get you thinking... an idea, THAT'S ALL! I am not responsible nor liable for any financial losses you may incur following my ideas. Also know that leveraged ETFs such as UGAZ carry additional risks. READ the prospectus! Do your own analysis and due diligence PLEASE!
AMEX:TECS
by adventurous51
THE WEEK AHEAD: BIDU EARNINGS; GDXJ, EEM, VIX/VXX/UVXYEARNINGS BIDU (97/55) announces earnings on Monday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the New York session ... . Pictured here is a September 80/120 short strangle paying 1.65 as of Friday close with delta/theta metrics of 1.57/8.07. You can naturally go defined risk, but you'll have to go in a smidge tighter with the shorts to collect one-third the width of the wings and being surgical with your strikes will be tough with 5-wides in that expiry. The September 20th 80/85/110/115 is paying 1.62 with delta/theta metrics of .26/3.20. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Precious metals keep on grinding in a high implied volatility state for yet another week, with the ideal rank/implied metrics remaining in GDXJ and nearly ideal ones in GDX: GLD (80/16) GDXJ (77/38) SLV (77/25) TLT (76/17) GDX (72/33) BROAD MARKET EFA (53/17) EEM (52/22) IWM (36/22) SPY (35/18) QQQ (27/22) Since I don't have anything on in EEM, I may consider putting on something longer-dated there. Using the delta neutral at-the-money short straddle test and looking for a setup that pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying, it looks like I would have to go out to January where the 40 short straddle is paying 4.54 versus 39.54 the shares were trading at as of Friday close. The January 17th 40 short straddle pays 4.54 with break evens at 35.46/44.54 and has delta/theta metrics of 1.96/1.13 and a 25 max of 1.13; the 16 delta 34/44 short strangle pays 1.05 (.52 at 50 max) with break evens of 32.05/45.05 and delta/theta metrics of -.15/.86. I'm fine with either, but there's something to be said for having room to adjust without going inverted with the short strangle. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES VIX finished Friday at 18.47 with the /VX term structure still in backwardation from September to December, with the August contract settling next week. I will continue to look to add at-the-money bearish assumption setups (short call verticals or long put verticals) in VIX in the front month (September) should we get additional pops to >20 and/or the same type of setup in UVXY and VXX using VIX levels as a guide. As of Friday close, the VIX September 18th 18/21 short call vertical was paying 1.10 at the mid with a break even of 19.10 versus 18.47 spot, but will probably wait for another pop to >20 to put on a similar setup.* * -- Short call verticals: short in the money, long out of the money, paying one-third the width of the spread. Long put verticals: short out of the money, long in the money, paying less than one-third the width in debit. Short call verticals with the same strikes as a long put vertical have the same risk, so it's a matter of taste and/or the practicalities of having a bunch of different plays on in the same expiry as to which you use. For example, you can layer on same strike long put verticals over short call verticals without inadvertently "stepping on" the short call verticals you have on. As compared to VIX options -- which settle to cash, with UVXY and VXX, there's naturally some assignment risk, so I lean toward short call verticals in those particular instruments, since I'd rather be short shares if assigned.
NASDAQ:BIDU
by NaughtyPines
5 Reasons to be bullish on $UVXY 1. SPY is at record highs and... I am watching for topping signs or softening to show... 2. There is enough sh!@#$%^t going in the world to foresee something triggering a bad market reaction soon! (Global economy slowing down, Several trade wars, possible hard Brexit, Deutsche Bank issues, Iran tensions... just to name a few...) 3. The FED won't cut rates by more than 25bp this week. The market might be disappointed. Even if the FED start a dovish cycle with multiple rate cuts, it is a sign of weakness not strength of the economy. 4. The VIX is low. It has been lower but $12 is low. 5. Gold has made a good rally in recent months (even though I am currently, very short term, bearish on gold). It may know something we don't... I won't commit to it until I see softening of the SPY but I sure keep my eyes on it... I'll update this post when I start a position... The above are only my opinions and is not trading advice. This is just something to get you thinking... an idea, THAT'S ALL! I am not responsible nor liable for any financial losses you may incur following my ideas. Also know that leveraged ETFs such as UVXY carry additional risks. READ the prospectus! Do your own analysis and due diligence PLEASE!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by adventurous51
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: ROKU EARNINGS; GDXJ; VXX, UVXYA real quick and dirty here between checking off items on the honey-do list ... . Here's the cream of the crop: ROKU (83/94) announces earnings on Wednesday after market close and with rank/implied greater than 70/50, it's an ideal play for volatility contraction post-announcement. The pictured setup is a September 20th 75/80/135/140 iron condor, paying 1.67 at the mid price (one-third the width of the wings). Look to take profit at 50% max (.83/$83 assuming a mid price fill). Taking the top spot again this week for rank/implied among the exchange-traded funds is GDXJ (92/37) with the >70% probability of profit September 20th 36/45 short strangle paying 1.31 (.75/$75 at 50% max) and delta/theta metrics of 2.02/3.16. Lastly, with the pop in volatility last week, consider a bearish assumption play in either VXX or UVXY (i.e., either short call verticals or long put verticals) with the short leg in the money, the long out and that pays at least one-third of your spread in credit (or for which you have to pay less than two-thirds the width in debit). For example, the VXX Sept 20th 25/27 short call vertical is paying .67 at the mid price with a break even at 25.67. Conversely, the VXX Sept 25/27 long put vertical costs 1.36 to put on with a 25.64 break even and a max profit potential similar to that of the same-strike short call vertical (.64/$64). For the bolder at heart, the VXX Sept 22/24 long put vertical costs .95 to put on, making it a risk one/make proposition on the notion that volatility implodes fairly quickly back to its pre-pop levels, taking the VIX derivatives with it.
NASDAQ:ROKU
by NaughtyPines
SPX500 - Bearish Views and Expanded FlatsIt's cliché to be a stock market bear these days but I find it healthy to attempt to do so so long as there is a wave count and reference level one can stick to. Turning to the chart, it appears we are struggling to break through to new highs in the $3,000+ area. This could suggest one of two things: (1) as shown in yellow, that the entire move up from the Christmas Low is a wave B of an expanded flat requiring another retest of the Low; or (2) as shown in green, that the move up from the June low is a wave B of an expanded flat requiring a significant drop in order to push to new ATHs in the short-term. *Assuming the U.S. Index is bearish* (by staying under 3005) we would know the severity of the drop to be expected at around the 2666 level. This setup has been triggered on the 4H by what appears to be a running ABC correction pictured below.
FX:SPX500Short
by futuresfix
1
SP500 Idea before July 31st Rate Cut?It sure looks like the Fed is looking to cut interest rates for the July 31st meeting. But how can it do such a thing if the market is making new highs....that would not make any sense. So Here is my idea. Lets see if I am correct. In the next few days...IMO....I think that the SP500 is going to move up to the neck line of this possible inverse head and shoulders pattern. I think it will reach approximately the 3020 range before swiftly moving down until the Fed cuts rates on July 31st. That's it. I am not sure how deep it wil go but it could be possibly one heck of a TVIX play. This is just an idea for you to ponder.
TVC:SPXShort
by SalN
5
UVXY: Long term Buy opportunity.The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF is approaching the April bottom and the symmetrical Lower Low on the 1M Falling Wedge. Being oversold (RSI = 6.651, MACD = -1698.076) a strong cyclical rebound is expected on a very structured and recurring candle pattern. We are on a long term buy on UVXY with TP = 75.00. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by InvestingScope
2