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SMGR.JK long target 3000 within 3 monthsPT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk ( IDX:SMGR ) is moderately bullish over the next 3 months, with potential for 10-15% upside from the current price of 2,710 IDR. SMGR, Indonesia's state-owned leading cement producer, is poised for a rebound driven by a confluence of technical recovery signals and improving fundamentals. The stock has underperformed the IDX Composite benchmark YTD, trading at a depressed valuation (PE Ratio (TTM) of 69.49 but forward P/E of 25.84, with a 3.55% dividend yield), which creates an attractive entry point for value-oriented traders. SIG reported "early signs of growth" in H2 2025 cement demand after a -7.4% Q1 drop, driven by infrastructure tenders. Aggressive pricing competition has eased, lifting blended ASPs to multi-quarter highs. Trading at 0.42x book value (undervalued vs. peers), with fair value ~3,618 IDR (25%+ upside). Analyst consensus is neutral (11 firms), but max targets hit 3,500 IDR on infrastructure bets. Buy on dip to 2,650-2,680 IDR (WRPC lower band + VAP support), add on break above 2,800 IDR (channel midline + Stoch buy confirmation) for full size. Long position on SMGR ( IDX:SMGR ) with a target price of 3,000 IDR, anticipated within a 3-month horizon, contingent on technical confirmation and favourable market conditions. Tight initial stop at 2,600 IDR.
IDX:SMGRLong
by bialoglowy
Lamb Weston Holdings | LW | Long at $51.32Lamb Weston Holdings NYSE:LW , the potato / French fry king, has gone through a tremendous downturn since 2023. Yet, earnings are forecast to grow 22% per year into 2027. Debt is quite high at 2.5x and this company, like many others, will significantly benefit from lower interest rates in the future. If the US experiences another way of inflation, Lamb Weston Holdings could be on the beneficiary side of things. From a technical analysis perspective, the price has entered my "crash" simple moving average zone. Typically, this area signals a bottom, but it's not guaranteed. I foresee the daily price gap near $50 being closed in the short-term before a true move up. A dip to $47-$48 is not out of the question. Regardless of trying to predict bottoms, at $51.32, NYSE:LW is in a personal buy zone. Targets: $62.00 $68.00 $77.00
NYSE:LWLong
by WorthlessViews
Acadia Healthcare Company | ACHC | Long at $21.98Acadia Healthcare's NASDAQ:ACHC stock has fallen nearly -76% in a year, primarily due to weak 2024 results, missed revenue and EPS expectations, and a soft 2025 revenue guidance. Ongoing federal investigations into billing practices and lawsuits have further eroded investor confidence. However, it is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.42x and earnings are forecast to grow 7.07% per year. The profitable company is trading at a good value compared to other healthcare companies. Debt-to-equity is relatively low (0.64x), but legal risks (DOJ probe, lawsuits) strain margins. The stock has entered my "major crash" simple moving average territory and there is a lot of downward / selling pressure. But, more often than not, this area (which... I caution... still extends down near $16) can often signal a temporary or longer-term bottom. Personally, this is a buy area ($16-$21) even if it turns into a short-term bounce in 2025. But I believe the overall market moves in the S&P 500, etc. will guide this stock more than anything at this point (unless more bad news about the company emerges). One thing to note is that there are open price gaps on the daily chart near $17, $10, and $8. These gaps, which often (but not always) get closed in the lifetime of a stock, are a potential signal for further declines - at least at some point. There could be a drop near $16, then a $10-$20 bullish price increase after that, followed by more declines (trapping investors). Time will tell, but NASDAQ:ACHC is currently attractively valued. From a technical analysis standpoint, it is in a personal "buy zone", even if purely for a swing trade. Targets: $27.00 $33.00 $39.00
NASDAQ:ACHCLong
by WorthlessViews
Institutional Absence & Retail-Driven Liquiditywww.forexfactory.com The current market environment reflects an absence of strong institutional conviction, with price rotating inside overlapping value areas as uncertainty from the government shutdown limits directional discovery. Without key economic data to anchor narratives, orderflow is dominated by retail participation, where stop-losses and emotional reactions provide the primary source of liquidity. This creates volatility spikes and false auctions that lack sustained follow-through, making the market prone to choppy, stop-driven moves rather than genuine intent. In such conditions, caution is essential, with asymmetric opportunities found only at extremes of value areas or in response to major liquidity events that can reintroduce institutional activity and restore directional flow.
CME:6E1!
by FervTrades
$KTOS - Conglomerate of nothing?Kratos is a technology, products, system and software company addressing the defence, national security, and commercial markets. However, Kratos has built its whole pitch around being more than a “test services” company, yet most of its revenues are still test/demonstrator programs. Why the priced in expansion is unlikely: - Size & capital base: Kratos does ~$1.1B revenue with single-digit margins. To go from testbed shop to prime contractor, they’d need billions in infrastructure, engineering, and political capital, which they do not have. - Customer choices already made: The USAF CCA Increment 1 decision was pivotal. They passed over XQ-58 Valkyrie. That was the clearest shot Kratos had at scaling into a production UAV program. - Hypersonics (Mach-TB 2.0) are testbeds only; the operational hypersonic weapons are led by Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop. - Competition: Anduril, GA-ASI, Boeing, Northrop all have deeper pockets, lobbying, and trusted supply chains. - DoD prefers scale & reliability: Kratos is a “nice to have” cheap option, not the strategic backbone. - History of promises: Kratos has been saying “we’ll pivot into production” for years. Yet most revenue is still target drones and test contracts. Track record suggests a structural ceiling. As such, the current $15 billion market cap implies many current test contracts will expand into real production at scale and provide incredible revenue growth, which seems very unlikely. Our base-case DCF model (GAAP net income based): equity value ≈ $2bn ($11.67/share), compared to a current price of $88/share. The shares screen materially overvalued on fundamentals. Technicals: Entering a short at $88, being close to Fib level of $90, and RSI signalling overbought. Looking to start taking profits at $80, and $72.
NASDAQ:KTOSShort
by lucisafferens
3
Hensoldt (HAG) - Overly optimistic? [Bear Case]Business model: Hensoldt is a German defence-electronics pure-play: ground/air radars, optronics/periscopes, electronic warfare. Their order book and revenue backlog is benefiting from Europe’s continuing rearmament. Why pricing looks rich: At ~€100+/share, the market appears to discount flawless conversion of the rearmament wave into sales and cash, sustained high-teens margins, and minimal programme/approval risk well beyond 2030. My GAAP-based DCF (9% discount, –1% terminal) values equity ≈ €20/share (DCF model snapshot), far below the market. Trading multiples at today’s price (as of Sep ’25): - EV/Rev: ~5× FY25. - EV/E (GAAP): ~116× FY25, ~85× FY26, ~72× FY27 - Compared to other defence companies, these current and future multiples are far above the average, requiring much greater growth in income, which seems unlikely. For today’s price to be ‘fair’, the market is effectively assuming: - Hensoldt’s 2030 revenue guidance is exceeded and margins significantly improve from current levels. - Contract wins versus close competitors in various revenue drivers, for example vs. Thales/Saab on large NATO sensor programmes (not just German programs). Technicals: The stock is approaching a recent all-time high, also corresponding with a Fib level as resistance, but with fading momentum, future defence spending globally already priced in, entering a short at €104.
XETR:HAGShort
by lucisafferens
Deere and Company is a stapleIt looks like a good time to buy Deere shares, I have done an evaluation on the perceived intrinsic value of the company. To back up my philosophy about what I think a "good deal" on the shares is, I have included a technical analysis including a trendline being touched for the third time at a measured Fibonacci retracement. Looking ahead five years, based on the revenues the company is expected to generate according to wall streets current estimates. I have used the discount cash flow model to determine what I believe a suitable margin of safety would be to buy and hold shares of Deere. I am taking into account, the time value of the investment by measuring 5 years ahead, the risk to me at this point is very low. $570 seems to be a fair price taking into account all the fundamentals, I have been holding the stock for some time, but am increasing my exposure to 5% allocation in my portfolio. Naturally I like the stock because I have worked around these machines a lot in my life. So I have a good understanding of how the company will make money and why the company will make money. The current price of a share is $461, while the intrinsic value according to my model is $570, essentially that means the shares are about %25 undervalued right now. I would personally rate Deere a buy despite the short term headwinds the company faces, we need them.
NYSE:DELong
by Capitalist_Zach
2
GBP.USDA very hard hit 2 day rally on the dollar. Lets unpack a few things about the recent data outlook. Good news across the board - the market that was once "priced-in" isn't anymore after the UKs fiscal stance on the public sectors borrowing making price swing from the latest US rate cuts up until now amounting to around 400 points. Reactive or not ? Have we collectively stopped questioning the feds credibility ? Or are we finding a balance because the UK doesn't look so attractive than 2 weeks ago ? Recent data points from the UK has lead me to believe that the economy is slowing. The economy slowing around the busiest period of the year ? This stance already makes you question. Although there is a more "natural" stance on the UK in accordance to their preliminary data outputs in relation to GDP, my next question is what happened in Q2 ? Q2s data outputs of GDP from the US was expected to beat its consensus, but we need to drift back into the question of "is this natural?" - the answer is no, the market reacting to a Q2 data input I think is efficiently acceptable but not a justifiable way to take advantage of the same way monetary policy in the UK is hawkish. This is because of the headline risk traders where afraid of - tariffs - the activity in Q2 was huge, thus, inflating the report we have had today. We've been at this price before but this time its a 1.35 target. The euro is a sound investment against the dollar whilst the pound follows. I am in positions across the board ranging from 1.345 up until now, I am potentially taking advantage of how the market has been very reactionary based off singular data inputs that do not focus on the end of year narrative & the effects from this year. Given the path of rates, we are expected to keep cutting up through next year in the US, inflationary pressures add on which today those "good" data input were heavily emphasized in the price because it is "good". But the school of thought is that a positive or negative reading should not automatically make an input from a perspective of bullish or bearish. There are questions, theories that neglect data outputs. Why do you think there are times news reacts badly to good news which doesn't align with the nominal belief that it is good ? In a sense we can try and capture all angles, but in this short summary I have captured a few that fuels the belief in a target as such. The markets swing high to now swing low is somewhat exaggerated giving no escape to those who are hedged or locked in. There is a release going to happen and it may be as vicious as the one today but on the upside. Unless there is breaking news the fed will pivot from their projections or if there is some external headline event moving the dollar, what you are witnessing now is a pure TA play powered by aggressive buyers trying to close the gap. While the UK remain neutral on rates, they have also considered shrinking their borrowing, giving a blow onto their QE program which that so called program was reactionary when Powell mentioned it.
Long
by Exogenous
Aster vs Hyperliquid – Value BreakdownWas just taking a closer look at GETTEX:HYPE vs $ASTER. Both projects are moving fast, but the fundamentals tell two very different stories. Hyperliquid ( GETTEX:HYPE ): Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $46.7B Annualized Fees: $1.1B 30D Perp Volume: $300B Volume = ~2% of the entire stablecoin market Valuation multiple: 42.5x fees Aster ($ASTER): Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $16.5B Annualized Fees: $110M 30D Perp Volume: $27.7B Valuation multiple: 150x fees Takeaway: While $ASTER has seen explosive early performance, the fee-to-FDV ratio is stretched. Meanwhile, GETTEX:HYPE is already generating serious fee revenue and market share, making it fundamentally a stronger value proposition even at current levels.
by Crypto_Meehow
21
Canadian National Railway has huge upside potentialA decades old trendline still unbroken after months of correction, the Canadian economy seems to be in a great position considering the circumstances. After conducting a simple technical analysis predicting a second leg up the upside potential is enormous if I am right about this. The downside is I am looking at a monthly chart so this will need to be a position trade or long term investment to achieve the desired results. Even if my target is reached I will likely hold onto the stock for years afterwards because the company will continue to make money. The intrinsic value for CNI is between $120 and $225 so it is well below the intrinsic value making any new position on it now at a bargain deal. I will likely be allocating a significant portion of my portfolio to it in the next few days to weeks.
NYSE:CNILong
by Capitalist_Zach
2
$IONQ - Priced to perfection?IonQ is an early-stage quantum computing company (trapped-ion architecture). Disclosure is thin: revenue is not segmented by source and recent acquisitions (e.g. Oxford Ionics, Capella, Lightsynq) make organic revenue growth trends hard to isolate. Even if FY2025 revenue reaches ~$100m (≈132% y/y), I estimate a full-year net margin ≈ -240%. Given the scale of continued R&D and engineering spend required to reach error-corrected, production-grade systems, I don’t expect positive operating margins in the near term, and at an enterprise value of roughly $20bn, the stock embeds substantial future success. On simple cross-checks (EV/Revenue, implied long-run FCF margin, and dilution from SBC/capex needs), the market price already assumes rapid commercialization and high steady-state margins. As such, execution risk is under-discounted and the shares screen overvalued on current fundamentals. For today’s ~$20bn EV to be reasonable, IonQ would likely need: • Commercial scale: multi-year >50% revenue growth from recurring customers and annual contracts. • Economics: credible path to ~30%+ GAAP net margin in the early 2030s. • Technology: order-of-magnitude gains in algorithmic qubits and error correction, independently verified. • Disclosure quality: segmented revenue (organic vs M&A), backlog visibility. Technicals: Significant overvalued signal on RSI, and close to the next Fib level, indicates a good opportunity to short.
NYSE:IONQShort
by lucisafferens
1
iQIYI: bet on recovery or just another illusion?Fundamentally, iQIYI is often called the “Netflix of China.” In recent years, it has faced heavy pressure from high debt levels, fierce competition from Tencent Video and Bilibili, and slower growth in the Chinese domestic market. However, recent earnings reports show positive shifts: a growing subscriber base, higher ARPU (average revenue per user), and reduced operating losses. With government support for the tech and entertainment sector and signs of consumer recovery, iQIYI has a real chance to strengthen in the mid to long term. If subscriber growth and cost control continue, the company’s market cap could start to recover, making current levels attractive for medium-term investors. Technically, the stock still trades below the 200 EMA, showing ongoing seller pressure. The key support zone is $2.30–2.40, and holding this area keeps the bullish scenario alive with targets at $3.40 and $5.25. A longer-term recovery could extend toward $10.40, but only if a sustainable uptrend is confirmed. Losing $2.30 would invalidate the bullish case and expose downside toward $1.60–1.80. This is one of those situations where market expectations diverge from reality. Optimism makes a reversal seem near, but as always, emotions must be put aside — we wait for clear technical signals before entering.
NASDAQ:IQLong
by InvestWorld_777
support on the curveBitcoin has potential support on the curve, where the price is currently at 108333. In my opinion, it will reach at least the cup and handle target on the weekly chart by the end of the year. I don't expect it to go over 150k this year, and I don't really believe in 140k+ either. The peak will probably come by mid-October. This doesn't necessarily mean a peak for altcoins, at least not for all of them. Cryptocurrencies can also fall due to the fall in stocks, which are now very overvalued compared to the real economy, see Buffett indicator. Now on Thursday and Friday, important economic news will come, so we can expect at least a minor drop. If the drop does not occur for this reason, it may be due to the US attack on Afghanistan. Be careful.
Long
by Ceneon
Oxymoronically pounding the table here for CALMThere are a lot of reasons I like the trade I entered into yesterday at the close here. I'll start with some reasons I'd like CALM regardless of my trading style. I think everyone can agree we are in an overvalued market right now. That inherently creates risk with any stock you buy right now. Not saying we are gonna go down, but the more overvalued the market gets, the greater the risk that creates. CALM has several things going for it in that regard. 1--it has a TTM P/E of 4.12. Not 41.2 - FOUR!!! This is good even for a value stock. 2--their current yield is 8.11%. Give your head a second to wrap itself around that one - this stock has a yield that is twice its P/E. To put that in perspective, NVDA has a P/E of 50. If its yield were 2x its P/E, it would be paying a 100% dividend. This is not really an anomaly, either. It has always been a high dividend stock. 3--in the event inflation picks up again, foods are an area where costs can be passed through to customers better than in other areas. Eggs will still be eaten, even if they cost more. We've already proven that once. People will complain, but they still buy them. Now for the part that really intrigued me here. 18-2 on trade signals in 2025 with an average gain of 3.5% and an average holding period of 9 days (including that 109 day marathon). That includes the two losing trades recently, and works out to a gain of .39% per day held. Note: trade returns on the chart are basis points (.01% per bp) Those are beyond tech stock level daily returns on a stock that has been flat overall on the year, that sells something Americans bought 108 BILLION of last year (while griping about prices) that has a low P/E and if the trade goes sideways, pays me 2% a quarter to hold onto. That's .03% per day just to hold it, not including any gain on the trade itself. The average historical daily gain of SPY is around .04%, for comparison. Why is this stock not being talked about? I don't know and I don't care, but I went long at yesterday's close at 103.01 and it's trading just below that as I put the finishing touches on this post. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NASDAQ:CALMLong
by redwingcoach
8
Constellation Brands | STZ | Long at $134.50Constellation Brands NYSE:STZ Technical Analysis: Currently trading just below my "crash" simple moving average area. This area is often a bottom, even if temporary (sometimes there is a continuous stairstep down, though). There is a high probability the stock could drop down to the "major crash" zone ($120 and below) in the near-term, but all price gaps on the daily chart since 2020 that were open below the current price are now closed (bullish). Earnings and Revenue Growth Projected earnings increase from 2025 ($11.6 billion) to 2028 ($15.4 billion): +38.2% Projected revenue increased from 2025 ($9.1 billion) to 2028 ($9.8 billion): +8.3% www.tradingview.com Health Debt-to-Equity: 1.6x (high) Altman's Z-Score/Bankruptcy Risk: 3.1 (excellent/very low risk) Insiders Warning: Selling outweighs buying. openinsider.com Action Constellation Brands hold a number of major names in the alcohol industry. While sales have slumped and revenue growth is weak, it's a solid company paying a +3% dividend. I do not expect this to skyrocket any time soon, so those into overnight returns may want to pass. The decision to enter is primarily based on technical analysis and name-brand recognition. I am also going to keep my target low for a swing trade due to the unknown economic times ahead. Targets in 2028 $158.00 (+17.5%) $178.00 (+32.3%)
NYSE:STZLong
by WorthlessViews
Using Amazon as an example to write about intrinsic valueThe beautiful thing about equities, is that we can determine what the stock should be worth based on the future cash flows the company generates. It is called intrinsic value and professional investors often use this calculation to help them make higher quality decisions. The primary method of calculation is called discount cash flow. When building a DCF model is is recommended to use Wall Streets estimates to keep an unbiased opinion. Understanding the concept of discount cash flow, is like understanding the calculations behind any technical indicator, the thing about intrinsic value is that it is a fundamental indication not just technical. Equities go up, because companies are generating cash flows. Unlike commodities, which are only valued based on the general consensus of voters. It was Benjamin Graham the father of value investing who said, in the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long term the market is a weighing machine. There is a fantastic book I read called The Intelligent Investor written by Benjamin Graham I highly recommend giving it a read if your serious about making money in the market over the long term. Intrinsic value is the fundamental, true worth of an asset or business, as determined by an objective analysis of its financial performance and future cash flow potential. It is a crucial concept for investors, especially value investors, who use it to identify assets that are undervalued or overvalued by the market. Focusing on fundamentals helps investors avoid overpaying for assets and reduces the risk of permanent capital loss. If a stock's market price is significantly lower than its calculated intrinsic value, it may be undervalued and a good buying opportunity. The difference is often called a "margin of safety". Intrinsic value is based on an asset's long-term potential, encouraging a focus on sustainable growth and stability rather than short-term market noise. Now onto Amazon stock, according to my model the intrinsic value of Amazon is as of this writing $260 meaning that fundamentally it is still undervalued. Take this with a grain of salt because if you create a model using the discount cash flows of the company over the next 5 or 10 years you might get wildly different results. This is why it is essential to understand the calculation for yourself instead of just taking my word for it. This is a highly speculative calculation, it can also become relatively complicated. Lets compare two individuals performance over the course of their career, I would like to write about Dr. Al Brooks, often referred to as the king of price action by CME group, and Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors and richest men in the world. Al Brooks, the day traders net worth is about $750 million dollars over the course of his career in the market. Warren Buffett has a net worth of about $150 billion dollars. One is a trader, the other an investor. So where am I going with this? Everyone wants to get rich quick, everyone starts thinking they will be a trader. 90% of traders permanently lose their capital never to make it back and often times quitting participating in the market. The 10% of traders who are actually profitable, aren't making as much money as you would think, as per the comparison above. The average investor over the course of their lifetime will make 150x more money than the best traders. For me, I fell into the 90% category, trading didn't work for me, after reading The Intelligent Investor, the money starting coming into my account almost effortlessly. Dear reader, this article was written by me for my own entertainment. Please do not take anything I have written too literally, always do what works best for you and always remember, whatever your doing, you should be having fun. Cheers
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Capitalist_Zach
PTON Squeeze 2.0?Its Christmas Eve today, and Santa Powell is likely voting today to lower rates. By how much? Depends on the proportion of slurs / message in your favorite discord serve, but I'm leaning towards the standardized view of 0.25. If we get anything above, or below for that matter, expect to have your hair blown back. That being said, PTON was an overpriced COVID darling running off of hot air fueled by everyone pretending an exercise bike with an iPad screen wasn't going to become a clothing rack. As of today, it has a short interest of 18%, price to sales of around 1, and a demolished market cap relative to 2020/2021. I see PTON pushing out of this gutter and back to a $10B valuation with haste. They're working on profitability and the metrics i've mentioned look solid. Listen, If i know anything right now its that we're about to see the most intense two quarters in recent memory. I do wish you well in this phase because it may very well be the end of the road for this bubble. But what do I know.
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by Nickonacci
Flowers Food | FLO | Long at $13.51Flowers Food NYSE:FLO . Maker of Nature’s Own (the top-selling bread brand in the US), Wonder Bread, Tastykake, and many others, has entered my "crash" simple moving average zone. While the fall has been steep since 2022, the company is trading at a price-to-earnings of 13x (typical food industry is around 20x) and offers and 7%+ dividend. It's not a play for future growth, however, which is expected to be mild to stagnant ( based on forward annual earnings and revenue . This position is a value / dividend play given the high likelihood of lower interest rates and a certain group of investors moving out of banks and into dividend / income stocks. So, while I wouldn't be shocked if NYSE:FLO dips into the $12 rage in the near-term, I have created a starter position in the company at $13.51. My targets are modest, although there is a blaring gap in the $27-$28 range that will likely be filled... some time. Targets into 2028: $14.75 (+9.2%) $16.25 (+20.3%)
NYSE:FLOLong
by WorthlessViews