Brian|watch reaction at POC–VAL –VAH according to Volume ProfileXAUUSD – Brian | watch reaction at POC – VAL – VAH according to Volume Profile
1. Market snapshot
Gold is entering a redistribution phase in the high price range, with fluctuations mainly revolving around large volume clusters on the Volume Profile. In this context, Brian's current priority scenario is to watch for a Sell when the price approaches the POC / VAL / VAH areas – where the market previously traded heavily.
2. Volume Profile – Notable price areas
POC – VAH area 4.217 is the price area where buyers/sellers previously "struggled" strongly, suitable for looking for sell signals if there is a rejection reaction.
VAL & the support area below around 4.134 is where short-term buying force may appear, suitable for a technical rebound buy scenario.
3. Trading plan (this week)
Scenario 1 – Sell according to Volume Profile (priority)
Sell: 4.217
SL: 4.125
TP: 4.200 – 4.182 – 4.150
Idea: wait for the price to rebound to the POC/VAH area around 4.217, observe the H1/M30 candle reaction. If a clear rejection signal appears (long upper tail, reversal candle...), the sell order can be activated according to the plan.
Scenario 2 – Short buy at VAL/support area
Buy: 4.134
SL: 4.125
TP: 4.155 – 4.180 – 4.200
Idea: if the price adjusts deeply near the VAL area and holds above 4.125, a technical rebound may occur. This is a short buy, not going too far against the trend, prioritizing partial profit-taking when the price returns to the upper POC area.
4. News to watch – Unemployment Claims
Today there are US Unemployment Claims figures, which are quite sensitive data for gold because:
The market will assess the strength/weakness of the US labor market.
Worse-than-expected figures → increase the likelihood of Fed easing → positive for gold.
Better-than-expected figures → support USD, may cause gold to face adjustment pressure.
Therefore, it is advisable to limit new orders close to the news release time, wait for the post-news candle to stabilize, and then reassess the structure.
5. Risk management (user-friendly for phone users)
Sell is the priority scenario but do not overlook SL 4.125, to avoid the case of a strong breakout above the current volume cluster.
With the Buy 4.134 scenario, it is advisable to split TP, move SL to breakeven when the price hits TP1 to reduce the pressure of having to "watch the chart" continuously on the phone.
If D1/H4 closes below the 4.125 area with large volume, Brian will consider it a signal to reduce short-term buying expectations and wait for a clearer new structure.
