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Wave Analysis

The first step towards 5k - ETH weekly update Sep 15 - 21thDear investors and traders, Ethereum is currently in the second wave of the minute cycle within the larger third wave unfolding in the minor cycle.Zooming into the fractal structure of the mentioned second wave, we can easily recognize the double three pattern as shown on the chart. My primary expactation therefore is a combination of a flat structure as a minuette wave w and a following zig zag a minuette wave y. I have chosen this scenario, because it's typical for altcoins to retrace their wave two a bit deeper then assets do normally. Also, the flat structure hasn't corrected this second wave too far, making a larger pullback likely. The zig zag probably made his subminuette wave a and should retrace now to levels of around 4.6k. The alternative scenario would be, that this second wave is already completed and with that we would be looking forward to 5k. For the alternative scenario to be completed, we need ETH to climb higher than the previous high of the minuette wave x. Moving on to the liquidity analysis, we can see why this is my primary scenario: A massive amount of liquidity sitting just above the with the red line shown low of the minor wave two. I think we are going to drop again in the direction of this liquidity, but I hope it is going to melt down as people fear to get liquidated. The drawn in price target surely isn't where the liquidity sits, but it's where most fibonacci levels come together. The Orderbook is relatively empty in nearer space, but there is a large amount of short orders sitting at 5k. Derivative data shows us turbulent funding rates because of people trying to catch this drop with large leverage market orders and getting liquidated, making the funding rate apparently to come back, maybe because they fear to loose more money now. Open interest stagnates, which is on the one hand positive because there are no more short positions adding up but this also means on the other hand that there are no long positions coming in. One thing I also noted in relation to people trying to catch the drop and burning themselves is that the liquidations are declining, which is indicating the leverage is decreasing. Coming to exchange flows, the exchanges currently record an inflow of ethereum meaning that people are probably moving their coins from wallets to the exchange to sell them, which is a bearish signal. Also notable is that the exchange reserve is increasing, also indicating that people sell their ethereum. The seasonality of ethereum shows us that the current Q3 was doing exceptionally well for ethereum and looking forward Q4 is also going to be green with a probability of 60%. September in the past was rather bearish then bullish, flipping the probabilities to a 40% probability to get a positive result. Nonetheless, the average return of September is 7%, which sparks hope. Looking to Blackrock and other whales and entities, we can clearly see that Blackrock sold a part of it's ethereum (10k ETH) just slightly before the top and not buying again till now indicating the bottom is not in yet. The ETFs is still getting inflows, showing institutions accumulating ethereum. All in all I am long and I think that the anticipated lows are optimal prices to establish swing long positions. Crucial for a impulsive move and the transition from a minute wave two to a minute wave 3 is the decline of liquidity at the low of the minor wave two.
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by Phillipklh
Golden Strategy: Open a short position at 3665-3670.he price of London gold has risen again to around 3,660, a concentrated area of high points this month. During the trading session, the gold price is eager to test the previous high point and is currently in a volatile situation. Given that the dense high-point areas in the previous period still exerted certain pressure on the gold price, short-term gold operations can open short positions in the 3665-3670 range. Golden Strategy: Open a short position at 3665-3670. Thanks for reading! Please leave a comment and give me a like. I'll analyze and respond to your content. To keep up-to-date on market trends and get exclusive trading strategies, please follow me. Your support is the driving force behind my continued output of hardcore content! FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
TVC:GOLDShort
by Martin_transaction
EURJPY What Next? SELL! My dear friends, EURJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 173.30 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 172.84 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
ORCL 2x Leveraged ETF (ORCX, 30-min chart) Long Golden Zone ORCX ripped from ~28 lows to 60.5 highs in just a few sessions — massive parabolic move. After peaking at 60.5 (Supply Zone), price retraced aggressively, dipping back to the Golden Zone (Fib 0.618–0.65) around 43–44. Buyers stepped in right at demand, confirming this zone as valid institutional buying level. Current price 47.45, just reclaimed the 38.2% retracement at 48.1. 🔎 Trend & Structure Macro Trend: Bullish (daily uptrend intact). Correction: Healthy retracement into Fib Golden Zone (classic continuation setup). Structure Break: Strong bounce off golden zone suggests Wave 2 correction may be over → prepping for Wave 3 push. 🏦 Supply & Demand Demand Zone (Golden Zone): 43 – 44.5 (critical long entry area, already tested). First Supply Test: 52.9 (Fib 23.6%). Major Supply Zone: 58.4 – 60.5 (previous peak, high liquidity zone). 🛠 Trade Idea (Swing Setup) Entry Zone: 44 – 47 (Golden Zone already tested). Stop Loss: 42 (below demand). Take Profit Targets: TP1: 52.9 (Fib 23.6%). TP2: 59.6 (supply zone retest). TP3: 60.5+ (breakout continuation). 🎯 Risk/Reward Estimate: ~1:3 to 1:4 depending on execution. ⚖ Risk Management Max risk per trade = 1-2% of account equity (since ETF is leveraged). Move SL to BE once 52.9 (TP1) is tagged. Scale out partially at 52.9, let rest ride to 59–60.5. If parabolic rally resumes, trailing stop may capture new ATHs. "Amateurs want to be right. Professionals want to make money." – Anonymous ⚠️ Disclaimer This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Leveraged ETFs carry extra risk — trade small and respect stops.
NASDAQ:ORCXLong
by DubaiTradersHub
BTC vs 116.7k–118k: breakout or FOMC rejection?__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is pinned below the 116.2k–118k supply after rebounding from ~107k, defending the 115.16k pivot. It’s a range-to-break with elevated intraday volumes against a cautious macro backdrop. Momentum: Range with a mild bullish tilt 📈 while 115.16k holds; a clean breakout needs > 116.74k. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/12H/D) : 116.18k–116.74k · 118.0k–118.8k · 124.28k (D). - Supports (2H/4H/W) : 115.16k–115.20k · 114.16k · 111.97k. Volumes: Normal on 1D; very high on 1H/30m/15m — a catalyst for a box breakout from 115.2k–116.2k. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H = Up; 6H/4H/1H = NEUTRAL BUY above 115.16k; 2H = NEUTRAL SELL — a close above 116.74k adds upside conviction; losing 114.16k reopens 111.97k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE — a slight risk-off stance that contradicts the tactical bullish momentum; demand confirmations and smaller size. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic context: Higher-timeframe uptrend (12H/1D) but facing a tight 116.2k–118k supply wall — favor staged execution and confirmed breakouts. Global bias: Slight long bias while 115.16k holds; higher-timeframe invalidation on a clean daily close < 111.97k. Opportunities: - Long on breakout: Close/retest held > 116.74k aiming 118k/120k. - Tactical “buy-the-dip”: Reclaim of 115.20k after a sweep, stop below 114.16k. - Tactical short: Rejection at 116.7k–118k OR 30m/1H breakdown < 114.75k targeting 114.16k then 111.97k. Risk zones / invalidations: - Break below 114.16k invalidates intraday longs and opens 111.97k. - Strong reclaim > 116.40k–116.74k invalidates rejection shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC: 25 bps cut widely expected; dot-plot and presser = volatility triggers; “sell-the-news” risk. - US Retail Sales (pre-Fed): could tilt the box breakout. - Softer China data: growth headwind; keeps risk appetite uneven. Action plan: - Long Plan : Entry 115.30–115.90 (reclaim/breakout) · Stop 114.16 · TP1 116.18 · TP2 116.74 · TP3 118.00 · R/R ≈ 1.5–3.0. - Short Plan : Entry 116.10–116.70 (rejection) or < 114.75 (breakdown) · Stop 116.90–117.00 (rejection) / 115.17 (breakdown) · TP1 115.16 · TP2 114.16 · TP3 111.97 · R/R ≈ 1.5–2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes lean up, but the supply band at 116.2k–118k caps momentum. 1D/12H: Uptrend, compressing below 116.7k; a daily close > 118k would open 120k. 6H/4H/1H: Active range 115.16k ↔ 116.18/116.74k; buy-the-dip works above 115.16k if volumes confirm; intraday is whip-prone. 2H/30m/15m: 115.16k is the hinge; very high volumes create wicks — wait for clean retests; ISPD/MTFTI favor scalps while 115.16k is defended. Key divergence: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = NEUTRE VENTE vs MTFTI Up — keep size modest and demand follow-through post-break. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ FOMC is the key macro catalyst in a hesitant risk-on regime, while on-chain/flows remain more subdued than euphoric phases. Macro events: 25 bps cut expected; dot-plot and Powell Q&A as triggers; “sell-the-news” possible. US Retail Sales can pre-position flows; softer China data is a growth headwind. Bitcoin analysis: Pressing the upper band (116.4k) and 116.7k–118k supply; a clean close above 118k opens >120k; a decisive loss of 115k reopens 114.16k → 111.97k. On-chain data: ETF flows declining, derivatives more influential; range 110k–116k — sustained holds above 114k attract flows; below 108k raises HTF downside risk. Expected impact: Macro/on-chain mix argues for “confirmation first, size second”; it supports a cautious bias until > 116.74k breaks with volume. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling just below 116.7k–118k into FOMC week. - Trend: Higher-timeframe bullish but capped; slight risk-off background (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = NEUTRE VENTE). - Prime setup: Confirmed breakout > 116.74k (retest held) toward 118k/120k; alternatively, a break < 114.16k puts 111.97k back in play. - Macro: FOMC is well priced — first move can be a head fake. Stay disciplined: seek confirmations and retests, scale in tranches, and let the market show persistence. ⚖️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Will gold experience a deep correction on September 15th? I. Core View Gold has entered a period of high-level consolidation after hitting a record high, with the overall bullish trend remaining unchanged. The market is digesting recent gains and preparing for the crucial Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision next week. It is expected that gold prices will maintain strong fluctuations before the decision, and the final direction will depend on the clarity of the interest rate cut signal given by the Federal Reserve. II. Fundamental Analysis: Core Bullish Factor: Expectations of a Rate Cut Continue to Strengthen Economic Data Support: The latest surge in US initial jobless claims highlights signs of labor market weakness, providing justification for the Fed to cut rates and serving as the core driver of gold prices. Market pricing: The market is highly convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time next week. This expectation continues to suppress the US dollar and provide a breeding ground for gold prices to rise. Added Uncertainty: Inflation Data Surpasses Expectations The US Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% year-on-year in August, exceeding expectations and hitting a seven-month high. This set of data forms a "contradictory" combination with the weak employment data. Next week's biggest focus: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The key lies in the "dot plot": More important than the rate cut itself, the Fed's dot plot will reveal officials' forecast for the path of interest rates for the rest of the year and into 2025. Any unexpected dovish (implying more rate cuts) or hawkish (implying a slower rate cut cycle) stance will cause significant volatility in gold prices. III. Technical Analysis: Consolidation at high levels, trend unbroken. Daily Chart: Bullish trend remains stable. Gold prices remain stable above the 5-day moving average, a sign of a strong trend. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, providing strong support for prices. Key Support: The 3620-3615 area (previous correction low and near the 5-day moving average). As long as gold prices hold steady in this area, the bullish trend remains valid. Upside Target: A break above the historical high of 3675 would further open up upside potential, with the next target potentially reaching 3710 or even higher. 4-Hour Chart: Range-bound, Awaiting a Direction The chart shows gold prices consolidating within the 3615-3665 range, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing, suggesting the market is accumulating momentum and awaiting a breakout. Short-term Support: 3630 (intraday support), 3615 (strong support & bull-bear watershed). Short-term Resistance: 3660-3665 (upper limit of the range), 3675 (all-time high). IV. Trading Strategy Recommendations Overall Approach: Prior to the Fed's decision, we recommend a range-bound approach, prioritizing long positions on pullbacks and shorting on rebounds. Avoid chasing highs and selling lows at mid-price levels. Bull Strategy (Primary): Ideal Long Position: After a pullback to the 3630-3620 support area stabilizes, you can enter long positions in batches. Key Defensive Level: Below 3615. A break below this level could shatter the short-term bullish trend, requiring a stop-loss and reassessment. Target: Look towards 3660, 3665, and after breaking through, hold and look up to 3675 or even higher. Short Strategy (Assisted): Opportunity: If a rebound to the 3660-3665 range fails to effectively break through, or if a retest of the 3675 high fails, try a short position with a small position. Target: Targeting 3640 or 3630. Attribute: This is a short-term contrarian trade, simply aiming for a technical pullback. Be sure to enter and exit quickly and set a strict stop-loss (e.g., above 3675). V. Key Risks Federal Reserve Decision Risk: This is the only and most significant risk event next week. Be wary of any hawkish surprises (such as the dot plot showing a reduction in the number of rate cuts this year) that may trigger large-scale profit-taking in the "good news is out" style. Data fluctuations: If other important economic data are released before or after the resolution, market volatility will also be amplified. Technical selling pressure: Gold prices have risen sharply this year, and any news that exceeds expectations may trigger technical selling.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Golden_Compas
Latest Gold Forecast and Analysis for September 15th: I. Core Viewpoint The gold market is expected to remain volatile and relatively strong at high levels next week (especially before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision). The bullish trend remains intact, but there is a risk of a short-term technical correction. The market's focus will be entirely on the Fed's interest rate decision and subsequent policy guidance, which may determine whether gold prices reach new highs or experience a deep correction. II. Fundamental Analysis Expectations of a Strengthened Rate Cut (Major Bullish Factor): Core Driver: Recent US economic data, particularly labor market data (a sharp increase in initial jobless claims, weak non-farm payroll data, and downward revisions to historical employment data), have reinforced market expectations that the Fed is about to begin a cycle of rate cuts. Market Logic: Expectations of a rate cut have led to a weakening US dollar and lower US Treasury yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold and significantly boosting its appeal. This is the fundamental reason that has driven gold prices higher for four consecutive weeks and reached a new record high. Next Week's Key Event: The Fed's Interest Rate Decision (Key Uncertainty): The market has largely priced in the expectation of a "first rate cut" next week. The key to the decision lies not in whether or not to cut interest rates, but in the Fed's "dot plot" and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Potentially bullish scenario: If the Fed sends clear dovish signals (such as confirming a path of multiple rate cuts this year), gold prices could surge directly and break through all-time highs. Potentially bearish scenario: If the Fed takes a hawkish stance (such as expressing concerns about inflation, suggesting a slower pace of rate cuts), this could lead to a "realization of expectations, exhaustion of positive news" market, triggering large-scale profit-taking and a deep correction in gold prices. III. Technical Analysis Daily Chart - Bullish Trend Bull market intact: Gold prices are trading above all major moving averages (MAs), and the MAs are in a perfect bullish alignment, providing strong trend support. Key Support: The $3,600 mark has transformed from resistance to key support. Further support lies in the $3,550-3,530 area (near the MA20 level and the previous consolidation zone). Target and Risk: Technical patterns support a move to higher prices, but be wary of news-driven reversals. 4-Hour Chart - Beware of a short-term pullback risk. Divergence Signal: The MACD indicator may form a death cross, a warning sign that upward momentum is weakening and diverging from the record high, suggesting a need for a short-term technical correction. Short-Term Support: The 3630-3625 area is the first key line of defense for bulls in the near term. If broken, a further pullback to the 3600-3580 area (the intersection of the 4-hour MA60 and the daily MA5) is possible. Short-Term Resistance: The 3655-3660 area is immediate resistance, while the historical high of 3674 is a strong psychological resistance level. IV. Trading Strategy Recommendations Overall Approach: Ahead of the Fed's decision, the market may be cautious, with high-level fluctuations prevalent. In terms of operation, you should be cautious in chasing high prices, mainly arrange long orders after a pullback, and try shorting with a light position at key resistance levels. Long Strategy (Long on Dips): Ideal Long Zone: After a pullback to the 3630-3625 support range and stabilization, consider a light long position. Conservative Long Zone: If the pullback deepens, look for dip buying opportunities in the 3600-3580 range. Target: Target 3650 or 3660. After a breakout, hold and pursue new highs. Stop-Loss: Place $6-8$ below the entry level. Short Strategy (Short on Highs): Opportunities: If the rebound to the 3655-3660 resistance range stagnates, or if the price retests the historical highs of 3670-3674 and fails to break through, consider a light short position. Target: Target 3640 or 3630. Stop-Loss: Place above 3675. Note: This strategy is intended only for technical pullbacks and is a short-term contrarian trade. Maintain a light position and maintain a strict stop-loss. 5. Key Risk Warnings Federal Reserve Decision Risk: This is the biggest source of uncertainty next week and could trigger significant market volatility. Be sure to manage your positions carefully. Technical Sell-Off Risk: Gold prices have risen significantly this year, accumulating significant profit-taking. Any disruption could trigger a technical sell-off, leading to a larger-than-expected correction.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FX_Gold_Mastermind
USDCAD The Target Is UP! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the USDCAD next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.3824 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.3846 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
3