GBPUSD: Bearish-Neutral, But Showing Signs Of WeaknessWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 8 - 12.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has been a little more bearish than EURUSD. This is still the case. Bearish and moving sideways. There was a sweep of buy side liquidity Friday, but a late retreat back into the range of last weeks range. This may indicate weakness going into this week, and I am looking for price to turn over, as it is still inside correction territory.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weeklymarketsanalysis
ES (SPX) Weekly: Levels & Setups - Sep 8-12, 2025Price is camped under a higher-timeframe supply/“weak-high” band. Trend remains constructive on the Weekly/Daily, but 4H/1H are coiling beneath resistance. I’m neutral into mid-week inflation data and will only engage on clean acceptance above the prior-high band or a rejection back into range.
Event stance: Two inflation releases hit 08:30 ET mid-week. I’ll be flat into the prints and wait for the first qualifying 15-minute close before arming anything
Key ES zones I’m trading around
6530–6545 — HTF supply / weak-high packet (primary take-profit for longs; fade candidate on rejection)
6518 — Breakout line (PMH/PWH band)
6500 — Round-number pivot
6460 ±2 — 1H equilibrium / prior LL shelf
6408–6415 — 4H HVN / equilibrium shelf
6360–6375 — 4H demand (strong-low)
Setup 1 — Breakout-Acceptance LONG
Trigger: 15m close > 6518, then two 5m bodies hold above.
Entry: 6520.5–6523.0 on the retest or break of bar-2 high.
Stop: tighter of (i) below the 15m trigger candle low, or (ii) below the last confirmed 5m swing; cap ≤ 6–8 pts.
• If neither option fits ≤ 8 pts from your fill, pass and wait for a cleaner micro HL.
TP1 (dynamic): first hard band (e.g., any workable print inside 6530–6545) that yields ≥ max(15, 2.5×SL) from your fill (front-run 0.25–0.5 pt if 2.5R is tight).
TP2/TP3: 6550, then 6570; trail by 15m/30m closes.
• Disqualifiers: any 5m body back ≤ 6518 before TP1; visible liquidity wall ≤ 5 pts beyond trigger; news window.
Setup 2 — SRR Rejection SHORT (Sweep → Recapture → Reversal)
Trigger: Sweep 6518–6530, fail, then 15m bearish close < 6518.
Entry: 6515.0–6518.0 on the retest from below.
Stop: tighter of (i) above the 15m trigger candle high, or (ii) above the last confirmed 5m LH; cap ≤ 6–8 pts.
• I f the correct structural stop is > 8 pts from your fill, skip until a micro LH tightens risk.
TP1 (dynamic): first hard band below that gives ≥ max(15, 2.5×SL) from your fill—usually 6500; if 2.5R isn’t met to 6500, promote to 6482, then 6460.
TP2/TP3: 6482, then 6460 (extend toward 6410 if momentum).
• Disqualifiers: no 15m bearish confirmation; any 5m body ≥ 6518–6522 after entry (use your exact line); news window.
USDCAD: Bullish For The Near Term?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 8 - 12th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USDCAD
Last Week I was looking for weakness in the USDCAD. It traded through the bearish FVG on the Daily, moving higher as the CAD turned out to be even weaker last week.
Look for this to continue for the upcoming week, as there is internal range liquidity (IRL) drawing price higher for a short term gains.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly Outlook: Strong Bullish Momentum Meets Key US Data XAUUSD – Weekly Outlook: Strong Bullish Momentum Meets Key US Data | MMFLOW TRADING
Market View:
Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week with explosive momentum after Nonfarm Payrolls pushed price to a new ATH near $3600/oz. On the daily chart, the bullish candle closed with only ~30% wick, showing no signs of profit-taking. The weekly chart also printed a powerful bullish candle, confirming BUY dominance. This suggests that gold could see further upside in the coming week – and potentially throughout this month.
Macro & Fundamental Drivers (Week Ahead):
Key US data will drive volatility in XAUUSD:
Wed, Sep 10: Core PPI & PPI m/m → hotter-than-expected prints could support USD short term, weighing on gold.
Thu, Sep 11: CPI (Core, m/m, y/y) + Jobless Claims → the most critical release. Softer CPI + higher jobless claims would fuel gold’s rally, while hotter CPI keeps Fed hawkish.
Fri, Sep 12: UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations → inflation outlook could shape Fed expectations further.
Overall, fundamentals may create volatility, but the medium-term bias stays bullish.
Technical Outlook (H1 Chart):
Price is consolidating sideways after the Nonfarm breakout. Key levels to watch next week:
Support: 3574 – 3551 – 3530 – 3516
Resistance: 3600 – 3621 – 3633 – 3649 – 3669 – 3678
Trading Plan:
BUY bias (preferred):
Long on pullbacks around 3574–3550
SL: below 3530
TP: 3600 → 3621 → 3633 → 3649 → 3669 → 3678
SELL scalp (alternative):
Only if 3530 breaks with strong CPI upside surprise → target 3516/3527
Summary:
✅ Gold remains in a strong uptrend on both Daily and Weekly charts, with macro factors favouring further upside if inflation continues to ease.
👉 Watch 3592 (bullish trigger) and 3575 (bearish trigger) – these are the decision points for the next major move.
Follow MMFLOW TRADING for daily updates and trade setups.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 1 - 5 SeptemberMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: UK Retail Sales, Canada Jobs, US NFP, and OPEC+ Meeting
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex and commodities to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s most critical events driving global markets.
👉 Key topics covered in this episode:
— UK Retail Sales
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— US NFP and Unemployment Rate
— OPEC+ Meeting
— Trade Tensions
Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Full analysis & breakdown on EURGBP and AUDUSDFull analysis & breakdown on EURGBP and AUDUSD
Not too much to dive into in terms of charts for Week 36, given the way price action closed out last week.
However, there are clear trading ranges forming on a couple of key pairs — and with them, some directional bias we can work with.
This week, I’ll be keeping a close eye on:
EURGBP
AUDUSD
Both pairs are offering defined ranges and structure-based opportunities that I’ll break down below.
FRGNT
GBPUSD🔸Last week, the pound price reacted to the specified demand range and a good profit was received if the trade was entered
🔹But the long-term trend is still down and the specified red ranges are suitable for entering a sell trade
🔸The 4-hour candle close above 1.35886 invalidates this analysis
🔹The 1.3330 range could be a good target for a sell trade
eurousd🔸The Euro has not changed much compared to last week and the resistance level still does not allow the price to grow further
🔹I do not see this currency pair as suitable for long-term trading and it is better to wait for it to break an important level and then make a decision
🔸The specified levels are suitable for capturing market volatility, but it is recommended to take profit on time.
GBPUSD: A Cautious Bullish Bias. Monday Will Give ClarityWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 25 - 29th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has shown resiliency and strength over the last several days. It was helped las Friday by the Fed Chair Powell hinting towards a rate cut.
Buys seem to be the best way forward, based on the momentum from last week.
However, the structure is still in correction territory, and there is a chance the market may start to turn over. Low probability sells, but they are there.
Let the market tip its hand on Monday. Look for the +FVG to form on the Daily chart, and plan to take buys from it if it forms.
No selling until there is a definitive bearish BOS from current levels.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NASDAQ (NQ1!): Started Retracing Last Week. Will It Continue?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 18 - 22nd.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ reached ATHs Tuesday, and retraced for the rest of the week. Will there be some
follow through to open next week? Wait for the market to tip its hand and show you strength or weakness.
If the highlighted +OB fails, look for sells.
If the OB holds, buys until a bearish BOS takes place.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P 500 (ES1!) : Time For A Pullback From The Highs?In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for the week of Aug 18 - 22nd:
S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P 500 hit ATHs again last week, but the last three trading days were narrow in range. Friday was a bearish close.
There is an untested Weekly and Monthly +FVG that price would potentially rebalance before going higher.
I believe this will be the draw on liquidity next week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
US Dollar: Is The Bearish Correction Ending?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 18 - 22nd.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD has been weak since the start of August. But this is after a Bullish July! Is the retracement going to find support and all buyers to take over? Price is currently at the levels that could see buyers step in, just above a protected fractal low. If the low holds, we will see prices move higher. If the low fails, we resume the down trend that we've been in since January.
React and do not predict.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
EURUSD: Will Sellers Take Control? Moment Of Truth!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 18 - 22nd.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: EURUSD
The EURUSD is at a point in the uptrend it has been on since January where there is some
strong resistance.
July was a very bearish month, but August has corrected about 80% of the move, the last line on a fib retracement. It could keep going higher, of course. Or it could do what it has done the last two time the HTF swing highs reached these levels... turn around.
Wait for the market to decide, which should happen early during next week. Then look for valid entries.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GBPUSD: Are Sellers About To Take Control? Wait For It!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 18 - 22nd.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has been stronger than EU, sweeping the July 24 high. With that sweep, an External Range High, price could now turn around and offer Fair Value at Internal Range Liquidity, a +FVG. That is the potential. Mindful that price is still in "supply" and should turn bearish in theory. So there is reason to look for valid sells... when they present themselves.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Wkly Market Wrap – Nifty Breaks Losing Streak, Bulls Eye 25,100Nifty closed the week at 24,631, up 270 points from last week’s close, after hitting a high of 24,702 and a low of 24,347. As I highlighted in last week’s outlook, Nifty once again respected my range of 24,800–23,900 to the dot.
After five straight weeks of red, we finally saw a green weekly close—a much-needed breather for the bulls. But remember, this is the first pullback after a prolonged downtrend, so sellers are likely to make another attempt to drag the markets lower.
📌 Key levels for next week:
Support: 24,300 – If bulls defend this level, we could see a rally toward 25,000–25,100.
Resistance: 25,100 – Strong selling pressure likely here.
Even if 24,300 breaks, I don’t expect Nifty to slip below 24,200–24,150 this week.
💡 Opportunity Alert: For those who’ve been patiently waiting for a dip to enter, this week could present a good buying window—possibly followed by another opportunity by the second week of September. Have your list of fundamentally strong stocks ready to pounce.
Global Cue – S&P 500 on Fire
The S&P 500 once again closed at a new all-time high of 6,468, and the momentum suggests it’s on track to test the key Fibonacci level of 6,568. If you’re invested in the US markets, trail your stop-loss to 6,200 to safeguard profits.
Bulls are back in the game, but sellers haven’t left the field—next week will be all about who controls the pitch!
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 11 - 15 AugustMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rate, US Inflation, UK Jobs & GDP, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s most critical events driving global markets.
👉 Key topics covered in this episode:
— RBA Interest Rate Decision
— US Inflation Rate
— UK Unemployment Rate
— UK GDP Growth Rate
— Trade Tensions
— Earnings Reports
Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ (NQ1!): Bullish! Buy The Pullbacks!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 11 - 15th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
NASDAQ (NQ1!) NAS100
The NASDAQ is strong and moving higher. No reason to look for sells.
Wall Street advanced on Friday, taking indexes closer to a strong weekly finish, after President Donald Trump's interim pick for a Federal Reserve governor post kept expectations alive for a dovish policy.
The structure is bullish, with supports for higher prices. Wait for a pullback to discount arrays and buy it!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P 500 (ES1!): Bullish! Look For Valid Buy Setups!In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for the week of Aug 11 - 15h:
S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P 500 rose Friday to close the week strong on a busy week of tariff updates and good earnings.
There is no reason to consider selling.
Wait for pullbacks to FVGs for high probability buys. Look for IRL to ERL, and repeat.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD: Still Bullish, But Is It Time For A Pullback?In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Aug 11 - 15th.
Gold is bullish on the Monthly, Neutral on the Weekly, Bullish on the Daily. Strong close to last week. Tariffs on Swiss Bars coming into the US sent prices higher, but Trump took some of the steam off late with statements of clarifying the misinformation about the tariffs.
Will this bullishness continue?
Look for prices to retrace further into the consolidation, as it started on Friday. There is a poi that price could target in discount of the range. There we could find a high probability buying opportunity.
Be wary of the pullback, as that move is likely to be corrected, but that would set up a great long opportunity!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NZDUSD: Amid 15% Tariffs & Rate Cuts Looming, Time To Sell?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 11 - 15.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: NZDUSD
NZDUSD is dealing with new 15% tariffs from the US and signs of a rate cut coming in the next RBNZ meeting. Not to mention price mad a bearish impulsive move, and correcting into a bearish FVG. This would be the perfect premium array for the retracement to end, and the establishment of a lower high, followed by the start of the new bearish leg.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GBPUSD: Is The Market Shifting Bearish Next Week?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 11 - 15th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
GBPUSD
The Monthly TF chart shows a very bearish engulfment of the June candle by July's candle. August has retraced 50% of that Friday. Prices are now in premium of the range.
- Pound holds gains as markets price out September BoE easing
- US Fed leadership speculation and mixed central bank signals dominate sentiment
Price has stalled with Friday's retracement higher. It's likely to range until Tuesday's CPI Data.
Wait for valid sell setups, as there was a shift in the market from bullish to bearish.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
US Dollar: Bullish For The Near Term?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 11 - 15th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
USD Index
The US Dollar has been weakened by bad employment numbers, the expectation for interest rate cuts in the next FED meeting, and inflation sneaking higher. CPI Data is coming Tuesday, and a soft number will add to selling pressure.
However, price is at levels where a the bearish retracement could end, and the higher low could be established.
React and do not predict.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Markets Eye Policy, Positioning, and PerformanceCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! FRED:FEDFUNDS
Happy 4th of August, Traders!
As we head into the new week, here’s a look at what’s on the calendar:
Key Economic Data Releases
Monday:
• Factory Orders (MoM) – June
• Supply: 3-Month Bill Auction, 6-Month Bill Auction
Tuesday:
• Trade Balance (June), Exports (June), Imports (June)
• S&P Services PMI (July), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) – Prelim
• Supply: 52-Week Bill Auction, 3-Year Note Auction
Wednesday:
• German Factory Orders (MoM) – June
• Crude Oil Inventories
• FOMC Member Daly speaks at 11:45 CT
• Fed Governor Cook speaks at 1:00 CT
• Supply: 17-Week Bill Auction, 10-Year Note Auction
Thursday:
• Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
• BoE MPC Meeting Minutes, Inflation Letter, MPC Vote
• BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 8:15 CT
• FOMC Member Bostic at 9:00 CT
• Supply: 30-Year Bond Auction
Crude Oil Update
OPEC+ V8 members have announced an additional 547K bpd unwinding of voluntary cuts. Notably, crude prices have not reacted significantly to the expected OPEC+ figures. As we’ve previously highlighted, the market's focus remains firmly on demand-side factors. Despite geopolitical shocks, trade tensions, and recession concerns, crude oil prices have remained relatively stable—trading within a consistent range for over two and a half years since August 2022. According to Amena Bakr at Kpler, the V8 will meet again on September 7th to potentially reassess the reinstatement of 1.65 million bpd of cuts, currently scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026.
Earnings Recap
With over half of S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, YoY earnings growth is now projected at 9.8%, compared to the 5.8% estimate as of July 1, per LSEG data cited by Reuters. More than 80% of reporting companies have surpassed analyst profit expectations—well above the 76% average from the past four quarters.
Macro Outlook
Fed Vice Chair Williams provided further insight into the central bank’s posture ahead of the September FOMC meeting, stating he remains open-minded but continues to believe that modestly restrictive policy is warranted. Williams also emphasized that the notable downward revisions to May and June payrolls were the key takeaway from Friday’s jobs report, reinforcing the theme of softening labor market momentum.
In addition, the Fed announced on Friday that Governor Lisa Cook will resign from the Board effective August 8. A replacement is expected to be named in the coming days, though it is not anticipated to materially alter the policy outlook in the near term.
Looking ahead, if both inflation and unemployment tick higher between now and the September FOMC meeting, it would represent a worst-case scenario for the Fed. The August NFP report due on the first Friday of September and July and August 2025 inflation reports are key data points to monitor before the next FOMC Meeting on September 17th, 2025.
Although equity futures sold off on Friday following a disappointing jobs report, market pricing has adjusted notably. Participants now expect the Fed to deliver three rate cuts in 2025 and two cuts of 25bps each in 2026. This marks a shift from pre-NFP expectations of two cuts in 2025 and three cuts in 2026, per CME FedWatch Tool.
Market Implications:
On the back of rate cut expectations, in our analysis, this may help sustain upside in the equities complex. Although, it may be prudent to adjust portfolio and re-balance strategically according to sectors that may continue to outperform namely tech, AI, defense stocks, commodities and USD per our analysis.