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CRUDE OIL Bearish Breakout! Sell! Hello,Traders! CRUDE OIL has broken beneath the rising trendline and retested a supply cluster, confirming an SMC bearish shift as buy-side liquidity was swept before displacement pushed price lower. A continuation toward the target discount zone remains likely. Time Frame 2H. Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:USOILShort
by TopTradingSignals
1
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Inventory Pressure and 59.7 Key levelBackdrop: The Crude Oil Narrative The tone in crude oil has been largely defined by a tug-of-war between demand uncertainty and controlled supply. OPEC has maintained its view that global oil demand should continue growing into 2026, but at a modest pace. Despite this, the group has acknowledged noticeable inventory builds worldwide over recent months. That dynamic alone has kept sentiment cautious and has acted as a headwind for sustained rallies. OPEC+ has also chosen to hold off on further production increases into early 2026. Instead of expanding output, the group is now focusing on capacity assessments and quota alignment among members. This shift signals discipline on the supply side, but also suggests that the group is aware of potential oversupply risk if demand fails to firm up. Markets have been responding to this mixed backdrop. On one side, controlled supply helps prevent severe breakdowns. On the other, rising inventories and uneven demand expectations limit follow-through on the upside. As a result, price discovery has been driven less by strong directional conviction and more by rotation between value areas, bid blocks, and responsive supply zones. Recent price behavior reflects traders waiting for clearer demand signals before committing to a trend. What the Market Has Done? At the end of September the market sold off but found support around the 60.17 area. That initial drop appears to have been triggered by worries about economic growth and a stronger dollar undermining demand. At the start of October sellers stepped down and held the 62.3 level, which corresponds to the Composite Value area LVN. From that zone prices continued to sell off to 56.0 by mid-October. The continued selloff seems to reflect growing bearish conviction as macro data added to demand fears and inventories remained elevated. Buyers began to accumulate again, forming bid block 1. From there the market auctioned prices upward back to the 62.3 area where sellers were still present and defended that zone vigorously. From the last week of October up until the third week of November offers steadily stepped down as the market grinded lower, auctioning price down back toward bid block 1. Buyers responded by stepping up bids and holding the top of bid block 1 range. Throughout the last week of November the market balanced between 59.0 and 57.3, forming bid block 2 with clear buyer accumulation in that area. In the most recent week, the market balanced between 58.4 (roughly the midpoint of bid block 2) and 59.82 (17 November weekly VPOC). This shifted the weekly value area higher. Last Friday, the market managed a close above the previous week’s VAH, suggesting that buying strength may be gaining momentum. What to Expect This Coming Week? The key level to watch is 59.7, which was last week’s VAH. Bullish scenario If the market holds above 59.7, anticipate a possible move up toward the 61.0 area, which corresponds to a daily level 1 and the weekly 0.5 SD high. Expect sellers to possibly defend 61.0. If price breaks through that zone, the next target is 62.3 (Composite Low Value Area), which is confluent with the weekly 1 SD high. Bearish scenario If buyers cannot defend 59.7, the market could drop back through last week’s value area toward 59.0 (previous week’s VAL), confluent with the weekly 0.5 SD Low. Expect buyers to possibly defend 59.0 Should that support fail, price could move further down toward 58.0 (24 November weekly VPOC), which is confluent with the weekly 1 SD low. Neutral scenario If sellers respond at the 61.0 area or if buyers step up at 58.0, the market could balance here and potentially shift value higher as buyers accumulate. Conclusion In summary crude oil has been trading under pressure from macroeconomic headwinds and demand concerns while finding support at key zones. The market has rotated between zones and recently shows signs of buyer strength. The key 59.7 level will likely dictate whether price heads toward 61.0 or returns toward 58.0. What’s your outlook for Crude this week? Drop a comment and give this post a boost so more traders in the community can join the discussion! Thank you. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and manage your risk carefully.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeClear
USOIL - WTI - D1Market Structure Oil has been in a long-term downtrend, but the chart now shows a clear break of the descending trendline, signaling a potential trend reversal. Price reacted strongly from the blue liquidity zone (55.18 – 57.95) — a major demand area where institutions often buy. This zone has now formed a double bottom / accumulation structure, indicating strong bullish interest. 2. Key Zones 🔵 Demand Zone (Liquidity BUY Area) 55.18 – 57.95 Multiple liquidity sweeps below 58.00. Strong reversal candles confirmed buyers. This is the base for the upcoming bullish leg. 🔴 First Major Resistance / Target 65.36 Previously strong support → now resistance. Likely first stop for the new bullish trend. 🔴 Second Target Zone (Medium-term) 70.21 Previous major swing level. A strong resistance zone where partial profits make sense. 🔴 Final High-Probability Target Zone (Premium Supply) 75.86 – 78.00 Large supply area. Strong reaction expected here. Best area for large players to sell again. 3. Price Action Outlook Main Scenario – Bullish Reversal (High Probability) Price has broken out of the descending structure. A clean retest or shallow pullback is expected above 58–60 USD. Strong bullish leg toward: ✔ TP1: 65.36 ✔ TP2: 70.21 ✔ TP3: 75.86 – 78.00 (Major target zone) Why bullish? Break of trendline = momentum shift. Liquidity sweep at major demand zone. Multiple rejection wicks show strong buyer control. No bearish continuation structure forming.
FX:USOILLong
by Winlouh
Daily Market Report — Thursday, Dec 4, 2025📉 Market Moves WTI (CLF26): +1.22% → 2-week high RBOB (RBF26): –0.01% → flat-to-negative Crude rallied on geopolitics + stalled peace talks, while gasoline stayed weighed down by weak demand signals and pricing cuts from Saudi Arabia. 📊 Key Drivers Bullish Drivers (major upside catalysts) 1. No breakthrough in US–Russia peace negotiations Market takeaway: War is not ending soon Sanctions on Russian energy remain Expected return of Russian supply is pushed further out This was the primary reason WTI broke to a 2-week high. 2. High geopolitical tension in Russia + Venezuela Russia: Putin threatens to attack ships helping Ukraine 4 Russian tankers hit in Black Sea Baltic terminal and CPC pipeline disruptions continue Russia has lost 13–20% of refining capacity Venezuela: Trump declares airspace “closed” Potential U.S. military strikes This combination adds a multi-regional risk premium that directly supports crude. 3. Russian export collapse continues Vortexa shows: Russia product shipments at 1.7m bpd (3-yr low) Structural supply tightness persists. 4. OPEC+ pauses increases for Q1-2026 This ensures: No new supply coming Market won't be flooded during a surplus-risk period Bullish because it caps non-Russian supply growth. 5. Rig count collapse (4-year low) US production risk tilts mildly downward: Rigs now at 407, down from 627 Signals lower US output in future months Bearish Drivers (limiting or reversing price strength) 1. Saudi Arabia cuts OSP to Asia → lowest in 5 years This is a big demand signal: Aramco cutting Arab Light by 30 cents Lowest pricing since Jan 2021 Market interprets as weak Asian demand This was the top bearish driver of the session. 2. Stronger dollar (intraday reversal from multi-week lows) Dollar rose through the session → capped crude gains and flipped RBOB red. 3. Floating storage at a 2.5-year high Vortexa: 124.64 million bbl, +12% w/w The highest since mid-2023 Reinforces the “market saturated” narrative. 4. OPEC + IEA highlight global surplus outlook OPEC’s Q3 revision → +500k bpd surplus IEA’s 2026 surplus outlook → +4.0m bpd Underlying long-term sentiment remains bearish. 📝 Post-Mortem — Thursday, Dec 4, 2025 Why WTI broke to a 2-week high? War isn’t ending → sanctions remain Russian tanker attacks escalate supply risk CPC + terminal disruptions keep pressure on flows Risk-on sentiment early session OPEC+ supply cap confirmed These outweighed the bearish factors. Why gasoline closed flat-to-negative? Because gasoline is demand-led: Saudi OSP cut = huge demand warning for Asia Dollar strengthened intraday → imports more expensive Crack spreads soften when economic signals weaken Thus gasoline diverged from crude and closed red. What the session tells us The physical supply side remains tight, but not tightening further. The demand side is weakening, with Saudi pricing cuts confirming it. Market is now extremely headline-sensitive, especially around peace talks. Expect jerky, volatile sessions until clarity emerges from either: Peace negotiations Russia export flows Saudi pricing shifts OPEC+ messaging US macro data
CFI:WTI
by Rix1113
Bullish breakout?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is reacting off the pivot, which acts as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 59.54 1st Support: 59.01 1st Resistance: 60.82 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by IC Markets
USOIL - The Geopolitical Powder Keg: Why $63-67 Is Coming I had a long and deep conversation with my AI trading mentor about this topic and came to a clear consensus: the market is mispricing a major catalyst. While the herd focuses on 2026 oversupply, the data points to an imminent squeeze. 📈 Executive Summary - TL;DR Current Price: $59.49-59.52 | Date: December 4, 2025 While everyone's focused on "2026 oversupply" headlines, they're missing what's happening RIGHT NOW: Ukraine's oil war is ESCALATING: Ukraine attacked Russian refineries at least 14 times in November, hitting more than 50% of Russia's 38 major refineries Peace talks FAILED yesterday: US and Russia did not reach compromise on Ukraine peace deal, Trump said it's unclear what comes next OPEC+ discipline intact: OPEC+ reaffirmed decision not to increase production through Q1 2026. Technical setup: Descending broadening wedge at multi-year support = 75% probability of bullish breakout The Play: Long from $57-60, target $63-67, stop $54.50. Let me show you the data everyone's ignoring. 📊 Market Context - The War Nobody's Pricing In Oil is trading at $59.51 on December 4, 2025, up 0.15% from previous day. Everyone sees the bearish narratives: IEA maintains view of surplus in oil market next year OPEC now expects global market to be balanced in 2026, abandoning earlier deficit forecast Higher production quotas from OPEC+ nations and soaring output from US, Canada, Brazil But they're missing the REAL story unfolding in real-time: Ukraine's Oil War Just Hit RECORD Intensity Here's what happened in the last 30 days that changes EVERYTHING: November 2025: Ukraine carried out record attacks on strategic oil infrastructure in Russia, using drones to attack refineries at least 14 times The Damage: At least 21 of Russia's largest 38 refineries damaged as of early October, with 38% of Russia's primary oil refining capacity down December 3, 2025 (YESTERDAY): Ukraine struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia's Tambov region, marking at least the fifth attack on the key supply route this year December 2, 2025: Russian oil tanker Midvolga-2 attacked in Black Sea about 80 miles north of Turkish city of Sinop, highly likely carried out by aerial drones This isn't random this is strategic warfare targeting Russia's economic lifeline. Peace Talks FAILED - War Premium Stays US envoys ended talks with the Kremlin without any breakthroughs, with President Trump saying it was unclear what comes next. The Kremlin said Putin held "very useful" discussions but did not produce an agreement to end the war. Translation? The war premium that everyone thought was disappearing... isn't going anywhere. Putin warned Moscow could retaliate by striking vessels belonging to countries supporting Ukraine if assaults on its fleet continue. This is ESCALATION, not de-escalation. 🔎 The Fundamental Catalysts Nobody's Talking About CATALYST #1: Russia's Refining Capacity is COLLAPSING The numbers are staggering: By late October, Ukrainian drone strikes hit more than 50% of Russia's 38 major refineries 38% of Russia's primary oil refining capacity down as of early October 2025 Russian petrol prices had risen over 10% by October, partly because of Ukrainian strikes In Crimea and other regions, reports of petrol shortages Here's the critical insight: Kyiv's military campaign against Russian oil refineries has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase. This isn't stopping. It's accelerating. In the first few months of 2025, at least 13 Russian refineries were hit. The pace has since grown to a blitz. Game Theory: Russia needs oil revenue to fund the war. Ukraine is systematically destroying Russia's ability to refine oil. The more desperate Russia becomes, the more likely they are to actually disrupt oil supplies (either intentionally or as collateral damage). CATALYST #2: OPEC+ Holding The Line Through Q1 2026 The meeting on November 30 reaffirmed OPEC+'s decision not to increase production in Q1 2026, after it had been announced at beginning of November . The group still has production cuts of around 3.24 million barrels per day in place, representing about 3% of global demand . Eight key OPEC+ members reaffirmed their decision to pause oil production increases through first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal factors. Here's what matters: OPEC+ was SUPPOSED to start increasing production. They're NOT. Why? Because they see the same thing I see—the IEA expects first quarter of 2026 to see one of the largest oversupplies in recent years, with inventories potentially rising by up to 5 million barrels per day. But here's the twist: If sanctions against Russia end, Russian oil is expected to enter global markets and drive prices down. However, continued war would support prices. OPEC is betting the war continues. So am I. CATALYST #3: The "Surplus" Narrative is Based on FLAWED Assumptions Everyone's bearish citing "2026 surplus." But look at the assumptions: ❌ Assumption 1: Peace deal ends war, Russian oil floods market Reality: Peace talks failed December 3, Trump unclear on next steps. ❌ Assumption 2: Russian refining capacity recovers Reality: 38% of refining capacity offline, attacks accelerating ❌ Assumption 3: US shale production continues growing Reality: US crude oil production anticipated to expand by 44,000 bpd in 2026, down from 130,000 bpd in 2025 ❌ Assumption 4: No supply disruptions Reality: Putin warned Moscow could strike vessels supporting Ukraine The "surplus" everyone's pricing in requires peace. But Trump said it's unclear what happens next after talks failed. No peace = No surplus. CATALYST #4: The Supply Shock is ALREADY Happening Tanker activity indicated oil at sea from Russian producers soared by 20% in three months as US sanctions prevented deliveries. Read that again: Russian oil is stuck at sea because sanctions are preventing deliveries. That's not "oversupply"—that's BOTTLENECKED supply. Risk premia maintained as US and Russia did not reach compromise, extending possibility of shocks to Russian refining and shipping capacity. Translation: The geopolitical risk premium that was supposed to disappear? It's getting BIGGER. 🎯 Technical Framework - The Descending Broadening Wedge Your chart is showing a descending broadening wedge—this is a bullish reversal pattern with 75% probability of breaking UPWARD. Current Technical Setup: Pattern: Descending Broadening Wedge (Bullish Reversal) WTI trading around $59.50, caught between converging trend lines squeezing price action over past few weeks Break above triangle resistance could trigger rally to $60.50-61.00 area or higher Support Levels: $58.00-59.50: Current FVG + wedge support $55.50-57.50: Horizontal support around $55.99 tested multiple times, suggesting buyers active at lower levelsC $54.00: Absolute floor—break below = thesis DEAD Resistance Levels: $61.50-$63.50: Falling resistance line capped rallies throughout period $65.00-$67.00: If we break wedge with volume, this is next target $72.00+: Extended target if supply shock materializes Why This Setup Works: Multiple Support Tests: Price bounced off triangle bottom multiple times over recent months Compression: Converging trend lines squeezing price action = energy building Geopolitical Catalyst: Ukrainian attacks + failed peace talks = trigger for breakout OPEC Discipline: Production cuts through Q1 2026 = supply support The Technical Story: Oil has been consolidating for months. Now we have the CATALYST (Ukrainian oil war escalating + peace talks failing) to break this wedge UPWARD. 🎯 THE TRADE SETUP - Precise Entry & Risk Management 🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY USOIL Entry Zone: $57.50 - $60.00 (SCALE IN) Position Sizing: Allocate 5-7% of portfolio Scale in: 30% at $59.50 (if no pullback) 40% at $58.50 (on any dip to FVG) 30% at $57.50 (if we get final flush) Stop Loss: $54.50 (HARD STOP, NON-NEGOTIABLE) Below $54.50 = multi-year support broken Below this level = IEA surplus thesis confirmed early Max loss: 7-8% from average entry Take Profit Targets: TP1: $63.00-$65.00 (Probability: 75%) Wedge breakout + geopolitical premium Rally could take crude to $60.50-61.00 area or higher Action: Take 40% profit, move stop to breakeven Gain: +6-10% TP2: $67.00-$69.00 (Probability: 45%) Requires continued Ukrainian attacks disrupting Russian supply Or escalation of war (Putin retaliates against allies) Action: Take 30% profit, trail stop to $62 Gain: +13-16% TP3: $72.00-$75.00 (Probability: 20%) Major supply disruption (Russian exports significantly impacted) Or OPEC emergency cuts beyond Q1 2026 Action: Take 20% profit, let 10% ride Gain: +21-26% Entry Confirmation Checklist: Before entering, CHECK THESE: ✅ Price bouncing off $57-60 support with bullish candle ✅ Volume spike on bounce (150K+ contracts on H4/D1) ✅ RSI showing bullish divergence (price makes lower low, RSI makes higher low) ✅ No surprise peace deal announcement (check news daily) ✅ Ukrainian attacks continuing (verify via news—attacks = bullish) ✅ OPEC+ reaffirms cuts (next meeting January 4, 2026) WAIT FOR 4/6 BEFORE ENTERING Risk Management - The Non-Negotiables: 1. Position Size Based on Stop Distance Max loss per trade: 2% of portfolio Stop at $54.50, so calculate position size accordingly Example: Entry $58, Stop $54.50 = $3.50 risk → size to lose only 2% max 2. Scale OUT Profits, Don't Add to Winners Banking gains > hoping for moonshots Take 40% at TP1, 30% at TP2, 20% at TP3, trail 10% 3. Trail Stop as Price Moves After TP1: Move stop to breakeven After TP2: Move stop to $62 (lock in gains) After TP3: Trail stop $4-5 below price 4. Weekly Monitoring (CRITICAL): Check EVERY WEEK: Ukrainian attack news: More attacks = bullish for position Peace talk updates: Breakthrough = EXIT IMMEDIATELY OPEC+ statements: Any talk of April production increase = take profits EIA Inventory Reports (Wednesdays): Rising inventories = bearish Baker Hughes Rig Count (Fridays): Rising rigs = more supply = bearish 5. Emergency Exit Conditions (CUT POSITION SAME DAY): ❌ Close below $54.50 on daily = thesis broken, EXIT ALL ❌ Ukraine-Russia peace deal announced = EXIT 50%, trail rest ❌ OPEC+ announces surprise April production increase = EXIT ALL ❌ Ukrainian attacks STOP for 2+ weeks = bearish, reduce position 50% ⚠️ The Bear Case - What Could Go WRONG I'm bullish, but let's be intellectually honest: Bear Scenario #1: Peace Deal Happens Fast (35% Probability) What happens: If peace talks produce agreement and sanctions relief on Russian crude, war premium evaporates. Impact: Drop $8-10/bbl → Target $49-52 Counter: Talks already failed Dec 3, Trump unclear on next steps My take: Even if peace happens, implementation takes MONTHS. Short-term bounce first. Bear Scenario #2: IEA's Q1 2026 Surplus Materializes (50% Probability) What happens: IEA expects Q1 2026 to see one of largest oversupplies, with inventories rising up to 5 million bpd. Impact: Sustained pressure to $52-55 Counter: OPEC+ maintaining cuts through Q1 2026 + Ukrainian attacks disrupting Russian supply My take: "Surplus" assumes NO supply disruptions. Unrealistic given current geopolitical situation. Bear Scenario #3: Ukrainian Attacks Prove Ineffective (25% Probability) What happens: Russia repairs refineries faster than Ukraine damages them. Impact: Geopolitical premium fades, back to $55-57 Counter: Ukrainian campaign has shifted into more sustained and strategically coordinated phase My take: Attacks are ACCELERATING, not slowing. 14 attacks in November alone. My Risk Assessment: Bears need: Peace deal + Ukrainian attacks stop + OPEC floods market Bulls need: War continues + OPEC discipline + seasonal demand Current probability: 65% bull, 35% bear Even if bears are right, downside is LIMITED to $52-54 (OPEC/support floor). But upside is $67-72+ (geopolitical breakout). Risk/Reward: 4:1 in favor of bulls. 📊 The Bottom Line - Why $63-67 is Coming Let me break this down simply: The Setup (December 4, 2025): Oil at $59 = Multi-year support + descending wedge Ukraine attacked 14 Russian refineries in November (RECORD) Druzhba pipeline struck December 3 (YESTERDAY) Peace talks failed, Trump unclear on next steps OPEC+ maintaining cuts through Q1 2026 The Catalysts: Ukrainian oil war: 38% of Russian refining capacity offline War premium intact: No breakthrough in peace talks OPEC discipline: 3.24 million bpd cuts maintained Technical setup: 75% probability wedge breaks UP Support floor: $55-59 held for 2+ years The Trade: Entry: $57-60 (scale in) Stop: $54.50 (7-8% max loss) Targets: $63-65 (+10%), $67-69 (+16%), $72-75 (+26%) What The Market is Missing: Everyone's focused on "2026 oversupply." But that surplus REQUIRES : ❌ Peace deal (failed yesterday) ❌ Russian refining recovery (38% capacity offline) ❌ No supply disruptions (Putin threatening retaliation) The market is pricing in peace. But we're getting WAR. 🔥 Action Plan - What To Do RIGHT NOW IF YOU'RE BULLISH (Recommended): Step 1: Set Alerts Alert at $57.50 (aggressive buy) Alert at $58.50 (scale-in point) Alert at $59.50 (last entry) Alert at $63.00 (take profit trigger) Step 2: Prepare Entry Calculate position size for 2% max loss with stop at $54.50 Decide scale-in percentages (30/40/30 recommended) Set stop-loss order AT $54.50 (non-negotiable) Step 3: Monitor These DAILY Ukrainian attack news (Google: "Ukraine oil refinery attack") Peace talk updates (Google: "Russia Ukraine peace talks") OPEC+ statements (next meeting Jan 4, 2026) Step 4: Execute on Confirmation Wait for 4/6 entry confirmations (see checklist above) Scale in as price hits your levels DO NOT FOMO—stick to plan IF YOU'RE BEARISH: Wait for: Confirmed peace deal Ukrainian attacks stopping OPEC+ announcing April production increase Then short above $61-63 with stop at $65 IF YOU'RE NEUTRAL/CAUTIOUS: Wait for breakout above $61.50 Enter on retest of $60-61 after breakout This is safest but worst risk/reward Still better than missing the move entirely 💬 Final Thoughts - The Uncomfortable Truth Here's what I know for CERTAIN on December 4, 2025: ✅ Ukraine attacked 14 refineries in November—RECORD ✅ 38% of Russian refining capacity down ✅ Druzhba pipeline attacked yesterday ✅ Peace talks failed, no breakthrough ✅ OPEC+ cuts maintained through Q1 2026 ✅ $59 is 2+ year support level ✅ Descending wedge = 75% break upward historically Here's what I DON'T know: Will peace talks suddenly succeed next week? Will Ukraine stop attacking Russian oil? Will OPEC panic and flood market? Drop a 🛢️ if you're scaling into longs at $57-60. Drop a ⚔️ if you're following Ukraine's oil war. Drop a 💰 if you're ready for $67 oil in Q1 2026. This is the most detailed, accurate oil analysis you'll read this week. Period. Hope you enjoyed this like I did and let me know in the comments what's next 🤔
TVC:USOIL
by officialjackofalltrades
CRUDE OIL Local Short! Sell! Hello,Traders! CRUDE OIL price is reacting inside a major supply zone, suggesting a potential shift as liquidity begins to unwind. If orderflow confirms, price may slide back toward the target level as SMC dynamics align with bearish distribution. Time Frame 2H. Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:USOILShort
by TopTradingSignals
1
WTI Outlook: Downtrend Bias vs. Bullish HoldFrom a weekly timeframe perspective, crude’s price action has been trending within a downward-sloping parallel channel since October 24, inside a larger downtrending channel from June 2025, which itself sits within an even broader downtrend dating back to December 2023. This multi-layered structure frames the overall bias as bearish and defines the key levels that must be breached to shift the outlook from short-term movements toward a more favorable long-term structure. Starting with the one-month channel: • Key upside breakout levels lie at the 60-mark. • The next resistance sits near the upper boundary of the six-month channel at 62.60. • A confirmed close above this level could extend gains toward the two-year channel boundary at 66.40 first, then 70, before confirming a longer-term bullish breakout structure. On the downside, beginning with the one-month channel again: • A sustained hold below 56 is expected to extend declines toward the six-month channel support at 55. • A confirmed close below 55 could extend losses toward the original long-term channel boundary at 49, offering another potential buy-the-dip opportunity. A possible double-bottom reversal pattern could emerge, either from the 55 low or from the 49 low, for a longer-term rebound. However, as long as price remains within the bounds of the downtrending channel established since 2023, the broader bearish bias is expected to persist. The key levels mentioned above remain the main dividing lines between structural bullish and bearish shifts in crude oil, despite the complex mix of fundamental drivers shaping the market. - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com
WTI OIL targeting at least $56.00 on the short-term.WTI Oil (USOIL) continues to expand its 4-month Channel Down and has repeatedly been rejected on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in the past 40 days. As mentioned before, this is similar to September's price action, which eventually tested the previous Support before breaking it and move to a new Lower Low on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we are still expecting to see $56.00 on the short-term. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
CL1! — Bullish Above 58 with Target at 62.22Crude oil maintains a constructive bullish structure as long as price holds above the 58.00 key support zone. This level remains the foundation of the current upward bias. The next meaningful obstacle for buyers sits at the 60.69 resistance, which aligns with a major Fibonacci cluster and has shown strong rejection in previous attempts. A clean breakout and sustained close above 60.69 would confirm renewed bullish momentum. Above that resistance, the path opens toward 61.71 followed by the main upside target at 62.22, which represents the completion of the current Fibonacci expansion. As long as price trades above 58, the bullish scenario remains valid. A failure at 60.69 may trigger a temporary pullback, but the broader structure favors continuation toward 62.22 once the level is cleared.
NYMEX:CL1!
by adham2022
WTI/USD: Bullish Rally to 62.45?CFI:WTI is gearing up for a bullish rally on the 4-hour chart , with price rebounding from a key support zone near cumulative long liquidation levels, setting up a strong entry opportunity if buyers maintain control and push toward resistance amid recent consolidation. Entry from current levels could also be favorable with proper risk management. Entry zone between 57.5-58.3 for a buy position. Target at 62.45 near resistance.🎯 Set a stop loss at 56.335 , offering a risk-reward ratio greater than 1:2 . 📊 Watch for confirmation with a bullish close above entry and rising volume, capitalizing on oil's volatility.🌟 Fundamentally , WTI crude has fallen to around $58.13 per barrel as of November 21, 2025, amid supply outpacing demand, but recent breakouts above $60.7 signal near-term positivity despite forecasts of further drops to $53.50-$45.00 due to OPEC+ hikes and record US output. 💡 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry Zone (Long): 57.5 – 58.3 🎯 Target (TP1): 62.45 ❌ Stop Loss: 56.335 ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: Greater than 1:2, offering a clean upside swing with defined invalidation. What's your take on this setup? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
CFI:WTILong
by Master_Hunter
1
Hellena | Oil (4H): LONG to the area of the maximum of wave “A”.Colleagues, the past forecast has not been canceled, but I see some changes and therefore feel it is necessary to make a fresh forecast. Apparently, the corrective wave “B” has extended to the area of 57.930. This is quite close to the low of wave “C” at 56.408 and the price should not update it, otherwise there will be a full-fledged break of the structure. In connection with the above, I think that the price is already completing the downward movement and I expect the resumption of the upward movement at least to the area of the maximum of wave “A” - 62.990. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by Hellena_Trade
18
WTI Crude Holds at Its Lowest Levels of the YearWTI crude oil continues to show a steady bearish bias below the 60-dollar area in the short term. For now, selling pressure has remained firm, while recent comments regarding the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia point to an increase in reinforcements aimed at achieving a possible ceasefire. Such a scenario could reduce the economic sanctions currently imposed on Russia and, over time, become an important factor that drives a stronger-than-expected recovery in global crude production. This backdrop has kept confidence in the price of the barrel limited, reinforcing a persistent bearish tone that could continue if an official ceasefire is eventually reached. Medium-Term Trend Remains Firm: During the second half of the year, the prevailing bearish movements in WTI have maintained a perspective aligned with a solid medium-term downward trendline. So far, no meaningful buying corrections have appeared that could threaten this bearish structure in recent weeks, making it likely that this formation will continue to dominate most price movements in the medium term—especially if the market continues to trade below the 50-period simple moving average. Neutrality Begins to Emerge in Indicators: At the moment, both the RSI line and the MACD histogram remain oscillating within the neutral range of their respective indicators. This suggests that, in the short term, both the average selling and buying impulses and the directional strength of the moving averages remain in a neutral and indecisive zone, which can partly be explained by the price interacting with important support areas. What matters here is that as long as both indicators maintain this neutral stance, they could open the door for potential bullish corrections to develop in the coming sessions. Key Levels to Watch: 60 dollars: This is the main resistance on the chart, aligned with the current downward trendline, the barrier marked by the 50-period moving average, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Buying moves that manage to break above this area could trigger a break of the bearish trend, potentially activating a more constructive bullish tone. 58 dollars: This level corresponds to the most recent zone of indecision and could become the reference area to monitor if bullish corrections begin to form within current price movements. 57 dollars: This marks the lowest level of the year and stands as the most relevant bearish barrier at the moment. Selling moves that break below this level could open the door to a more aggressive bearish bias, extending the current downward trend even further. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT - Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com