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CRUDE OIL Support Ahead! Buy! Hello,Traders! CRUDE OIL keeps falling In a downtrend which seems To indicate that the market Has its doubts about the Economy, however, a strong Horizontal support is ahead Around 60.00$ and after the Retest we will be expecting A local bullish rebound Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:USOILLong
by TopTradingSignals
1
WTI ShortThe alliance, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, agreed to a phased increase in production, which led to an increase in supply on the market. OPEC+ production increase parameters April 2025: Increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day May-July 2025: Monthly increase of 411,000 barrels per day August 2025: Increase by 548,000 barrels per day September 2025: Increase by 547,000 barrels per day October 2025: Planned increase by 137,000 barrels per day OPEC+ plans to fully restore production cuts in 2023. Initially, a gradual increase in production was planned until September 2026, but due to favorable market conditions, the process was accelerated US trade policy, which introduced customs duties on goods from many countries, also affects the price of oil We expect a decline in the American grade of oil to $ 60
TVC:USOILShort
by A3MInvestments
USOIL (WTI) Gann & Harmonic Pattern Points to Major Move!🛢️ 🛢️ USOIL (WTI CRUDE) Points to Major Move! ⚡ 📊 💹 Comprehensive Price Action Strategy | September 2025 Edition 🎯 📈 MARKET SNAPSHOT Asset: USOIL (SPOTCRUDE/WTI CASH) Current Closing Price: $64.413 Date: September 6, 2025 Market Status: 🔴 Critical Support Zone Testing 🎯 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WTI Crude Oil is currently trading at $64.413, positioned at a crucial technical juncture. Our multi-timeframe analysis reveals a bearish-to-neutral bias with potential for a significant reversal if key support levels hold. The convergence of multiple technical indicators suggests heightened volatility ahead, presenting both risk and opportunity for astute traders. 📊 COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🕯️ Candlestick Pattern Analysis The recent price action has formed a Bullish Hammer pattern at the $64.00 psychological support level, suggesting potential exhaustion of selling pressure. This formation, combined with increasing volume, indicates possible accumulation phase initiation. Key Patterns Identified: - ✅ Bullish Hammer at support - ⚠️ Evening Star formation on 4H chart - 📍 Doji cluster indicating indecision 🌊 Elliott Wave Analysis Current wave count suggests we're completing Wave 5 of a larger corrective structure: Primary Count: Completing Wave C of ABC correction Alternative Count: Wave 4 consolidation before final Wave 5 push Target Zones: - Bullish: $72.50-$74.00 (Wave 5 extension) - Bearish: $58.00-$60.00 (Wave C completion) 📐 Harmonic Patterns A Bullish Bat Pattern is forming on the daily timeframe: - X: $78.45 (Recent High) - A: $61.20 (Recent Low) - B: $71.85 (0.618 Retracement) - C: $64.41 (Current Price) - D: $59.80-$60.50 (Projected - 0.886 XA) Trading Implication: Watch for reversal signals near $60.00 for high-probability long entries. 🔄 Wyckoff Analysis Current market structure suggests: Phase: Potential Spring Test within Trading Range Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent decline = Lack of selling pressure Smart Money Behavior: Accumulation signals emerging Projected Move: Re-accumulation before markup phase 📊 W.D. Gann Analysis Gann Square of 9 Calculations: - Current Price: $64.413 sits on 225° angle - Next Resistance: $68.00 (270° angle) - Critical Support: $61.00 (180° angle) Gann Time Cycles: - September 15, 2025: Major time pivot ⏰ - September 22, 2025: Secondary cycle completion Gann Fan Analysis: - Price respecting 2x1 angle from July low - Break above 1x1 angle at $66.50 signals trend change ☁️ Ichimoku Cloud Analysis Current Position: Price below cloud - Bearish bias Tenkan-sen: $65.80 (Immediate resistance) Kijun-sen: $67.25 (Major resistance) Cloud Support: $62.00-$63.50 Chikou Span: Bearish, below price 26 periods ago 📉 KEY TECHNICAL INDICATORS 📊 RSI (14-Period) Current Reading: 42.5 Status: Approaching oversold territory Divergence: Bullish divergence forming on 4H chart Signal: Potential reversal zone approaching 📈 Bollinger Bands Upper Band: $68.20 Middle Band (20 SMA): $65.85 Lower Band: $63.50 Current Position: Testing lower band Volatility: Bands contracting - Breakout imminent 💹 VWAP Analysis Daily VWAP: $64.85 Weekly Anchored VWAP: $66.20 Monthly VWAP: $67.50 Volume Profile POC: $65.00 (High volume node) 📊 Moving Averages Confluence 20 EMA: $65.85 ⬇️ 50 SMA: $67.20 ⬇️ 100 EMA: $69.50 ⬇️ 200 SMA: $71.00 ⬇️ Status: Death cross on daily (50/200) - Bearish medium-term 🎯 TRADING STRATEGY ⚡ INTRADAY TRADING (5M-1H) LONG SETUP 🟢 Entry Zone: $63.80-$64.20 Stop Loss: $63.40 (-1%) Target 1: $64.80 (+1.5%) Target 2: $65.40 (+2.5%) Target 3: $66.00 (+3.5%) Risk/Reward: 1:3.5 SHORT SETUP 🔴 Entry Zone: $65.60-$65.90 Stop Loss: $66.30 (-1%) Target 1: $65.00 (-1.5%) Target 2: $64.40 (-2.5%) Target 3: $63.80 (-3.5%) Risk/Reward: 1:3.5 📈 SWING TRADING (4H-DAILY) BULLISH SCENARIO 🚀 Entry: $64.00-$64.50 (Current levels) Stop Loss: $61.50 (-4%) Target 1: $68.00 (+5.5%) Target 2: $72.00 (+11.8%) Target 3: $75.50 (+17.2%) Position Size: 2% portfolio risk BEARISH SCENARIO 📉 Entry: $65.80-$66.20 (Resistance retest) Stop Loss: $67.50 (+2%) Target 1: $62.00 (-6%) Target 2: $59.50 (-10%) Target 3: $57.00 (-14%) Position Size: 1.5% portfolio risk 🗓️ WEEKLY FORECAST Monday-Tuesday (Sept 9-10) 📅 - Expected Range: $63.50-$65.80 - Bias: Neutral with bullish undertone - Key Level: Watch $64.00 support hold Wednesday-Thursday (Sept 11-12) 📅 - Expected Range: $64.00-$67.00 - Bias: Potential breakout day - Catalyst: EIA Inventory Data Friday (Sept 13) 📅 - Expected Range: $65.00-$68.50 - Bias: Trend continuation - Note: Options expiry volatility 🌍 MARKET CONTEXT & FUNDAMENTALS Geopolitical Factors 🌐 - ⚠️ Middle East tensions supporting price floor - 🇨🇳 China demand concerns capping upside - 🇺🇸 SPR refill discussions providing support Supply/Demand Dynamics ⚖️ - OPEC+ production cuts extended - US shale production moderating - Global inventory draws accelerating Economic Indicators 📊 - Dollar Index weakening (Bullish for Oil) - Global growth concerns (Bearish pressure) - Inflation expectations rising (Supportive) ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT Position Sizing Guidelines 💰 Intraday: Max 1-2% account risk per trade Swing: Max 3-5% account risk per position Correlation Risk: Monitor energy sector exposure Stop Loss Strategies 🛡️ 1. ATR-Based: 1.5x ATR from entry 2. Structure-Based: Below/above key S/R levels 3. Time-Based: Exit if no movement in 2-3 candles Risk Factors ⚠️ - 🔴 Break below $61.50 invalidates bullish thesis - 🔴 Unexpected OPEC+ policy changes - 🔴 Rapid Dollar strengthening - 🟢 Surprise inventory draws - 🟢 Geopolitical escalation 🎯 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH SUPPORT LEVELS 🟢 S1: $63.50 (Immediate) S2: $61.50 (Critical) S3: $59.00 (Major) S4: $57.00 (Yearly Low) RESISTANCE LEVELS 🔴 R1: $65.80 (Immediate) R2: $67.25 (Daily 50MA) R3: $69.50 (Daily 100MA) R4: $72.00 (Major) 💡 PRO TRADING TIPS 1. 🎯 Best Entry Times: London/NY overlap (8-11 AM EST) 2. 📊 Volume Confirmation: Look for >20% above average 3. 🔄 Correlation Trades: Monitor USD/CAD inverse relationship 4. ⏰ Avoid Trading: 30 mins before/after EIA releases 5. 📈 Scale Strategy: Add to winners, not losers 🔮 MONTH-END PRICE TARGETS September 2025 Projections: Bullish Target: $72.00-$74.00 🎯 Base Case: $66.00-$68.00 📊 Bearish Target: $58.00-$60.00 📉 Probability Assessment: - Bullish Scenario: 35% 📈 - Base Case: 45% ➡️ - Bearish Scenario: 20% 📉 📌 CONCLUSION & ACTION PLAN USOIL presents a compelling risk/reward opportunity at current levels. The confluence of technical support at $64.00, combined with oversold conditions and potential harmonic pattern completion, suggests a tactical long position with tight risk management is warranted. Recommended Strategy: 1. Primary: Accumulate long positions $63.50-$64.50 2. Alternative: Wait for breakout above $66.00 for momentum trades 3. Hedge: Consider put options if below $61.50 📝 TRADING CHECKLIST Before entering any position: - ✅ Confirm volume supports move - ✅ Check RSI for divergences - ✅ Verify multiple timeframe alignment - ✅ Set stop loss before entry - ✅ Calculate position size - ✅ Review correlation with DXY - ✅ Check economic calendar - ✅ Assess market sentiment 🏷️ *Last Updated: September 6, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4* 🔔 Follow for daily updates and real-time trading signals! For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by sunya
WTI Oil Shorting Opportunity | Technical + Macro Confirm📌 WTI CRUDE OIL | Money-Making Thief Plan 🛢️ (Swing/Day Trade) 🗡️ Thief Strategy Plan (Bearish Bias) Plan: Bearish setup confirmed — sellers in control after MA rejection of bulls 📉 Entry (Layered Style): 63.000 🔪 62.500 🔪 62.000 🔪 61.500 🔪 (You may increase or adjust layers based on your own plan) Stop Loss (Thief SL): @64.000 ❌ ⚠️ Adjust SL according to your risk & strategy Target (Thief TP): Key resistance zone + overbought trap @4.6700 🎯 Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s) — I don’t recommend locking only my TP. Take your profits wisely & manage risk responsibly. 💰 ❓ Why This Plan? Moving average rejection confirms sellers’ dominance ⚔️ Technical indicators showing strong sell bias 📉 Layered entry strategy helps in catching moves efficiently 🎯 Oversupply risk + weak demand = bearish fuel 🔥 Retail & institutions both leaning short-side heavy 🐻 🔍 Market Analysis (Technical + Fundamental + Macro + Sentiment) 📊 Real-Time Price Action - Sep 05 Daily Change: -1.03% Monthly Change: -2.84% Yearly Change: -8.44% 😊 Retail & Institutional Sentiment Retail Traders: 35% 🐂 | 55% 🐻 | 10% 😐 Institutional Traders: 30% 🐂 | 60% 🐻 | 10% 😐 🌡️ Fear & Greed Index Current: 25/100 — Fear 😟 Mood: Cautious, driven by oversupply fears + weak demand ⚒️ Fundamental Score: 40/100 (Bearish) U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly +2.42M vs. -2.19M expected 📈 OPEC+ considering production increase 🌍 Weak China demand signals 📉 🌐 Macro Score: 35/100 (Bearish) Fed rate cut expectations (25bp likely in September) 💸 Global slowdown fears 🌎 (Europe + Asia weak data) Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine) limited impact 🚨 🏁 Overall Market Outlook: Bearish (Short Bias) 🐻 Declining prices + rising inventories + OPEC+ supply hike risk Technicals = Strong Sell (daily/weekly) Sentiment favors sellers across the board 🔮 Key Takeaway WTI/USOIL remains heavy under supply pressure + demand weakness. Market sentiment is fearful, with both retail & institutions leaning short. ⚡ Keep eyes on U.S. jobs data + OPEC+ decisions for any trend shifts. 📌RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH BRENT CRUDE ( TVC:UKOIL ): $66.42 (-1.8% daily) NATURAL GAS ( FX:NGAS ): $2.84 (-0.7% daily) ENERGY ETFS: XLE, USO, UCO OANDA:CADJPY : Oil-correlated currency pair ENERGY STOCKS: NYSE:XOM , NYSE:CVX , NYSE:COP , NYSE:SLB ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #USOIL #WTI #CrudeOil #ThiefTrader #EnergyMarkets #Commodities #OPEC #SwingTrade #DayTrade #OilAnalysis
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by The-Thief
WTI: weekly seller targets reached, monthly targets still lowerHi traders and investors! This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA). The sellers have reached the targets mentioned in the previous review (65.628 and 64.378). What to expect next. Daily timeframe On the daily timeframe (D1) for WTI, we see a manipulation of the 65.771 level, which may indicate that the market is moving toward the monthly targets I mentioned earlier — 61.818 and 58.504. Hourly timeframe On the hourly timeframe (H1), this manipulation appeared as a false breakout of the upper boundary of a sideways range. The range boundaries are clearly defined: the upper boundary at 65.771 and the lower boundary at 63.580. Wishing you profitable trades!
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by AlexeyWolf
WTI OIL Short-term Channel Up 4H MA50 buy opportunity.Last week (August 26, see chart below) we caught the absolute low with our WTI Oil (USOIL) buy signal, hitting our $66.30 Target shortly after: This time we have another buy signal on the short-term as the Channel Up that emerged has pulled-back all the way to its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). The last 3 times it did so, it was a buy opportunity. Assuming this is another Higher Low bottom, the new Bullish Leg that is about to be initiated, should aim for the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, similar to what the previous two did. This gives us a $66.75 Target for the short-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
WTI Surges Above 65$ ResistanceCrude oil is currently supported by a combination of energy sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and rate cut expectations — with price action eyeing the $70 barrier as long as it holds above $65.20. WTI maintained its rebound above the 61.80–62.00 support zone — aligning with the neckline of the previous inverted head and shoulders formation — and has broken above the 65 resistance level, signaling a potential continuation of bullish momentum. Daily RSI has also moved above the neutral 50 level, further confirming upside momentum. • A clean hold above 65.20 may extend the rally toward 68.00, 69.40, and 70.40 — the next major resistance levels. • On the downside, 62.00 and 61.80 remain key support levels. A break below them could expose oil to deeper losses toward 59.40 and 57.90.
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
USOIL (WTI Crude) – Buy & Sell Trade Scenarios🔵 Bullish Scenario (Buy Call) Entry Zone: Break and sustained close above 65.20 – 65.50 (current 4H resistance). Reasoning: Price has retested the 64.90 resistance cluster multiple times, suggesting absorption of supply. Volume shows declining sell pressure near resistance – a sign of potential breakout. A breakout with strong volume confirms buyers stepping in. Target 1: 66.75 (measured move into next liquidity pool). Target 2 (extended): 68.20 – 68.50 (previous structural pivot). Stop Loss: Below 64.20 (false breakout protection). R:R Potential: ~1:2.5 to 1:3 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Sell Call) Entry Zone: Rejection at 65.00 – 65.50 resistance with bearish confirmation candle. Reasoning: This zone has acted as a strong supply area since mid-August. Multiple wicks rejecting the level + increasing sell volume hint at distribution. If price fails to close above resistance, sellers regain control. Target 1: 63.00 – 63.20 (mid-support range). Target 2 (extended): 62.00 – 61.90 (major support zone). Stop Loss: Above 65.70 (wick protection). R:R Potential: ~1:2 to 1:3 ⚖️ Key Technical Takeaway 64.90 – 65.50 = Pivot zone (battle between bulls and bears). Breakout + volume = bullish continuation to 66.75+. Rejection + heavy volume = bearish rotation back to 62.95.
TVC:USOIL
by coolbouy
SpotCrude Short Setup - 4h💎MJTrading 📸 Viewing Tip: 🛠️ Some layout elements may shift depending on your screen size. 🔗 View the fixed high-resolution chart here: 🛢️ PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE Short Setup – Third Tap of Falling Wedge Resistance Pattern: Falling wedge Context: Price is testing wedge resistance for the third time, with rejection signs Bias: Bearish 🟢 Entry Point: 64.5 This aligns with upper boundary of the Falling Wedge (After Rejection). ❌ Stop Loss (SL): 65.5 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Levels ✅ TP1 (RR1) → 63.5 📈 TP2 → 62.5 💰 TP3 → 61.5 🧠 Trade Logic Price is testing wedge resistance for the third time, with rejection signs ⚠️ Risk Management Risk:Reward ratio ranges from 1:1 to 1:3, depending on TP level. Psychology Always Matters:
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by MJElahifx
1
WTI Crude Oil Trading Analysis: 02-September-2025Week Ahead Plan: September 2-6, 2025 Analysis Period : August 26-30, 2025 Review | September 2-6, 2025 Outlook Market : WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System ($0.25/15min + $0.50/30min) Current Price : $64.00 (August 30, 2025) ________________________________________ Strategic Outlook & Market Setup Primary Scenario (70% Probability): Pullback First, Then Recovery What to Expect : Market opens lower Tuesday ($63.00-63.50 range) due to bearish signal on short-term chart. This creates a buying opportunity if support holds. Trading Plan: Tuesday Opening : Expect gap down - don't panic, this was anticipated Buy Zone : Look for entries between $62.00-63.50 (strong institutional support) Confirmation Needed : Wait for short-term trend to flip bullish again before buying Target : Still aiming for $66.50 but may take extra 3-5 days to get there Secondary Scenario (25% Probability): Sideways Consolidation What to Expect : Market trades in $63.50-64.50 range for several days while technical signals realign. Trading Plan: Strategy: Be patient - don't force trades in choppy conditions Wait For: Clear breakout above $64.50 with volume Risk: Could waste 1-2 weeks in sideways action Low Probability Scenario (5% Probability): Immediate Continuation Up What to Expect : Market gaps up above $64.25 and keeps rising. Trading Plan: Verify: Make sure both short-term and long-term signals turn bullish Caution: Be skeptical without strong volume confirmation Action: Can buy but use smaller position sizes until confirmed ________________________________________ Market Risk Factors & Monitoring Critical Support Level : $62.00 Why Important: Massive institutional buying occurred here - if it breaks, the bullish case is dead Action If Broken: Exit all long positions immediately, wait for new setup Probability of Break: Low (15%) but must be respected Key Events This Week : Tuesday: ISM Services data (economic health indicator) Wednesday: Weekly oil inventory report (could cause volatility) Friday: Jobs report (affects overall market sentiment) Warning Signs to Watch: Technical: Short-term trend staying bearish for more than 3 days Volume: Declining volume on any bounce attempts Support: Any trading below $62.50 for extended periods Time: No progress toward $66.50 target within 10 total trading days Positive Signs to Look For : Technical: Short-term trend flipping back to bullish (key confirmation) Volume: Above-average volume on any recovery moves Support: Strong buying interest at $62-63 zone Momentum: Clean breakout above $64.50 with follow-through ________________________________________ Forward-Looking Adjustments Modified Risk Management : Position Size: Use 50% of normal position size until both timeframes align bullish Stop Loss: Tighter stops at $62.75 (just below support zone) Entry Patience: Don't chase - wait for pullback to support levels Profit Taking: Be more aggressive taking profits at first target ($66.50) Revised Entry Strategy: Before Buying, Confirm ALL Three: Price: Trading at or near $62-63 support zone Technical: Short-term trend signal flips back to bullish Volume: Above-average buying interest visible Timeline Expectations : Days 1-3: Expect pullback/consolidation phase Days 4-5: Look for bullish confirmation signals Days 6-10: Resume advance toward $66.50 target if signals align Beyond Day 10: If no progress, reassess entire strategy Success Metrics: Minimum Goal: Protect capital during pullback phase Primary Target: $66.50 within 2 weeks (revised from 1 week) Risk Limit: Maximum 2% account loss if support fails Time Limit: Exit strategy if no directional progress within 10 days total Simplified Decision Framework : Green Light to Buy: Price near $62-63 + Short-term trend bullish + Good volume Yellow Light (Wait): Mixed signals, choppy price action, low volume Red Light (Exit): Price below $62, bearish trend continuing, time limit exceeded ________________________________________ Bottom Line : The bigger picture remains bullish, but short-term signals suggest a pullback first. Use any weakness to $62-63 as a buying opportunity, but only with proper confirmation. Be patient - the setup is still valid but timing may be delayed by a few days. ________________________________________ Document Classification : Trading Analysis Next Update : September 6, 2025 (Weekly Review) Risk Level : Moderate (controlled institutional setup) This analysis represents continued validation of a systematic, institutional-grade trading methodology with demonstrated predictive accuracy and risk control capabilities. This is a view that represents possible scenarios but ultimate responsibility is with each individual trader. Risk Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk of loss.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by mxb1961
# USOIL WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# USOIL WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast Current Price: $64.612 (As of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Asset Class: USOIL / WTI Crude Oil Cash Analysis Date: August 30, 2025 --- Executive Summary WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) continues to navigate a complex fundamental landscape, currently trading at $64.612 per barrel amid significant bearish pressure. Recent market data shows crude oil fell to $64.04 on August 29, 2025, declining 0.87% from the previous session with a concerning 8.51% monthly drop and 12.93% year-over-year decline. Technical analysis reveals the commodity has broken below critical support levels around $65.00-66.00, with strong resistance encountered at the descending trend line near $65.27. Our comprehensive analysis indicates potential for further downside toward $58-60 zone, though geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production dynamics could trigger sharp reversals. --- Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Analysis WTI Crude Oil exhibits a complex corrective structure within a multi-year consolidation pattern: Primary Count: Completing Wave C of larger degree ABC correction from 2022 highs Wave Structure: Currently in final stages of 5-wave decline toward $58-62 target Corrective Phase: Large degree consolidation between $60-85 range since 2022 Long-term Projection: Eventual breakout above $85 targets $110-120 by 2026-2027 Invalidation Level: Break below $55 would extend corrective phase significantly Fibonacci Relationships: Current decline showing 1.618 extension characteristics Wyckoff Market Structure Analysis Oil demonstrates classic Wyckoff Distribution Phase completion with transition to Markdown: Phase: Early Markdown Phase following Distribution completion Volume Analysis: Increasing volume on declines indicating institutional selling Price Action: Breaking support levels with follow-through selling Composite Operator Activity: Smart money liquidating positions accumulated above $70 Market Character: Weak rallies met with fresh selling pressure Re-accumulation Zone: $58-62 represents potential future accumulation area W.D. Gann Comprehensive Analysis Square of 9 Analysis: - Current price $64.612 positioned near 90-degree Gann support turning point - Next major Gann level: $58.50 (180-degree decline from recent high) - Time and price convergence: September 21-28, 2025 (Autumn Equinox influence) - Critical Gann squares: $62.41, $58.50, $54.76 (geometric decline sequence) Angle Theory Application: - 1x1 Declining Angle Resistance: $67-68 (primary downtrend line) - 2x1 Accelerated Decline: $60-62 (next support cluster) - 1x2 Support Angle: $55-58 (major correction boundary) - 1x4 Long-term Support: $48-52 (crisis scenario support) Time Cycle Analysis: - 84-day cycle low expected: Mid-September 2025 - Seasonal Gann Pattern: September-October typically sees oil volatility - Major time window: October 5-15, 2025 (potential reversal period) - Annual cycle: Q4 seasonal strength often supports energy complex Price Forecasting & Time Harmonics: - Immediate support: $62-64 - Primary target: $58-60 - Extended decline: $54-56 - Time harmony suggests potential reversal after October 8, 2025 Ranges in Harmony: - Current range: $62-68 (breakdown phase) - Next trading range: $55-65 (potential base formation) - Long-term channel: $45-85 (multi-year consolidation) --- Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Pattern Analysis Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart) Bearish Engulfing: August 26-27 confirming breakdown below $65 support Long Upper Shadows: Repeated rejection at $65.50-66.00 resistance levels Spinning Tops: Indecision candles around $64-65 zone Volume Confirmation: Increasing volume on red candles, declining on green Dark Cloud Cover: August 28-29 pattern confirming selling pressure Harmonic Pattern Recognition Bearish Gartley Completion: $68-70 zone (recent distribution area) ABCD Extension: Active decline targeting $58-60 completion zone Bearish Butterfly: Potential completion at $54-56 extreme target Fibonacci Confluence: Multiple extension levels converging at $58.50 Advanced Harmonic Analysis Three Drives Down: Developing pattern toward $58-60 target zone Bearish Crab Formation: Long-term pattern suggesting $52-55 targets AB=CD Equality: Price and time relationships supporting $58 target Cypher Pattern: Potential bullish reversal consideration at $58-60 Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Assessment Current Market Structure: Bear Trap Probability: 25% - Potential false breakdown below $62 support Bull Trap Scenario: 75% - Any rally above $67 likely to be sold aggressively Key Levels: Sustained break below $60 confirms bearish continuation Volume Pattern: High volume selling indicates genuine breakdown rather than trap --- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Structure (Daily Chart) Price Position: Below Kumo cloud indicating bearish trend dominance Tenkan-sen (9-period): $65.24 (short-term dynamic resistance) Kijun-sen (26-period): $67.18 (medium-term resistance level) Senkou Span A: $66.21 (leading span A - resistance) Senkou Span B: $69.45 (leading span B - major cloud resistance) Chikou Span: Below historical price action confirming bearish sentiment Future Kumo Analysis (26 periods ahead): - Thickening cloud structure indicating strong resistance above - Future resistance zone: $65-70 (forward-looking cloud base) - Cloud twist not anticipated until late Q4 2025 Ichimoku Trading Signals TK Cross: Tenkan below Kijun (active bearish signal) Price vs Cloud: Below cloud with downward momentum Chikou Span: Clear below price history (bearish confirmation) Cloud Breakout: Failed to maintain position above cloud support --- Technical Indicators Comprehensive Analysis RSI (Relative Strength Index) Multi-Timeframe Daily RSI: 38.6 (oversold territory but not extreme) Weekly RSI: 42.3 (bearish momentum with room for decline) 4H RSI: 35.2 (approaching oversold with potential bounce) RSI Divergence: No bullish divergence detected, momentum remains bearish RSI Support: 30 level crucial for preventing deeper decline Bollinger Bands Analysis Current Position: Price near lower band ($62.50 level) Band Width: Expanding indicating increasing volatility %B Indicator: 0.18 (near lower extreme, potential bounce zone) Band Squeeze: Recent expansion from squeeze formation VWAP Analysis (Volume Weighted Average Price) Daily VWAP: $65.47 (dynamic resistance level) Weekly VWAP: $67.23 (key resistance zone) Monthly VWAP: $69.18 (major resistance level) Volume Profile: Highest volume acceptance at $66-68 zone now resistance Moving Average Structure 10 EMA: $65.89 (immediate dynamic resistance) 20 EMA: $67.12 (short-term resistance) 50 SMA: $69.45 (intermediate resistance) 100 SMA: $71.23 (key resistance level) 200 SMA: $73.87 (major secular resistance) Moving Average Signals: - Perfect bearish alignment across all timeframes - Death Cross pattern established (50/200 SMA) - Price trading below all major moving averages --- Support & Resistance Analysis Primary Resistance Levels 1. R1: $66.50-67.00 (immediate technical resistance and daily VWAP) 2. R2: $68.00-68.50 (previous support turned resistance) 3. R3: $70.00-70.50 (psychological and technical confluence) 4. R4: $72.00-73.00 (major moving average cluster) 5. R5: $75.00-76.00 (long-term resistance zone) Primary Support Levels 1. S1: $62.50-63.00 (immediate Gann support and lower Bollinger Band) 2. S2: $60.00-61.00 (psychological and harmonic support) 3. S3: $58.00-59.00 (major Gann target and Elliott Wave projection) 4. S4: $55.00-56.00 (extended harmonic target) 5. S5: $52.00-54.00 (crisis scenario and long-term support) Volume-Based Support/Resistance High Volume Node: $66-68 (now major resistance zone) Low Volume Gap: $60-62 (potential rapid movement area) Volume Support: $58-60 (potential accumulation zone) POC (Point of Control): $67.25 (maximum volume acceptance, now resistance) --- Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Framework Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts) 5-Minute Timeframe Methodology: Entry Signals: Short rallies to 20 EMA with RSI >65 in downtrend Profit Targets: $0.30-0.50 per barrel per scalping trade Stop Loss: $0.20-0.30 maximum risk per position Volume Filter: Above-average volume required on breakdown continuation Time Windows: Asian session 1:00-4:00 AM, London open 3:00-6:00 AM EST 15-Minute Scalping Framework: Range Trading: Current range $63.50-65.50 Breakdown Strategy: Volume confirmation below $63.50 for continuation Counter-trend: Fade rallies above $65.50 without volume Risk Management: Maximum 3 positions simultaneously, 1:1.5 R:R minimum Intraday Trading Strategies (30M, 1H, 4H) 30-Minute Chart Approach: Trend Following: Short below EMA cluster ($65.50-66.00) Pattern Trading: Bear flag and pennant formations Target Methodology: Initial $62.50, extended $60-61 Risk Parameters: $0.80-1.20 stops, 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum 1-Hour Chart Strategy: Momentum Trading: MACD bearish crossovers with histogram expansion Resistance Shorting: Short entries from $66-67.50 zone Support Testing: Monitor $62-63 area for breakdown continuation Session Management: Focus on US trading hours 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM EST 4-Hour Swing Framework: Cloud Strategy: Short on failed attempts to reclaim Ichimoku cloud Elliott Wave: Ride Wave C completion toward major targets Fibonacci Trading: Use 38.2% and 50% retracements for short entries Hold Duration: 5-15 days for swing positions Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) Daily Chart Methodology: Breakdown Strategy: Short on sustained breaks below $62 with volume Bear Market Rallies: Short rallies to $67-69 resistance zone Target Progression: $60 → $58 → $55 sequential targets Position Management: Scale in on multiple timeframe confirmations Weekly Chart Analysis: Primary Trend: Strongly bearish below $70 weekly resistance Swing Targets: $58-60 zone for major profit-taking Risk Management: Weekly closes above $70 signal potential reversal Monthly Chart Perspective: Secular Range: Multi-year consolidation $45-85 Long-term Targets: $52-58 completion of corrective phase Reversal Zone: $55-60 area for potential major low formation --- Day-by-Day Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025 Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - Reduced US Participation) Market Conditions: Thin liquidity in US markets, focus on Asian/European sessions Technical Setup: Resistance: $66.00, $67.50, $68.50 Support: $63.00, $61.50, $60.00 Expected Range: $62.50-66.50 Trading Strategy: Reduced Sizes: Holiday conditions warrant smaller positions Range Strategy: Short rallies to $65.50-66.00, long support at $63.00 Gap Management: Monitor overnight developments in Middle East Risk Focus: Geopolitical news sensitivity during thin trading Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Outlook: Full participation returns, inventory data focus Key Events & Strategy: API Inventory: Tuesday evening crude inventory report Technical Focus: $63 support test with volume analysis Geopolitical Monitor: Middle East tensions and OPEC+ developments Entry Strategy: Short $65-66.50 targeting $62-60 Risk Considerations: - Inventory surprise potential for sharp moves - Dollar strength impact on commodity complex - Chinese demand data influence Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Outlook: EIA inventory data and mid-week momentum Strategic Framework: EIA Report: Official US crude inventory data (10:30 AM EST) Technical Pattern: Monitor bear flag completion below $63 Volume Analysis: Institutional participation on breakdowns crucial Support Defense: $62 level critical for preventing accelerated decline Trading Approach: Pre-EIA: Light positioning due to event risk Post-EIA: React to inventory data with appropriate sizing Breakdown Play: Below $62 targets $60-58 zone Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly inventory impact and positioning for Friday Key Considerations: Inventory Digest: Market reaction to Wednesday's EIA data Technical Levels: $60-61 major support zone testing OPEC+ Watch: Monitor for any production policy signals Dollar Correlation: USD strength continuing to pressure commodities Execution Strategy: Trend Continuation: Below $62 favors $58-60 targets Counter-trend Risk: Any rally above $66 likely to be sold Profit Management: Scale out at key support levels Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly close significance and position squaring Final Session Strategy: Weekly Close: Below $62 very bearish, above $66 potentially bullish Profit Protection: Secure gains from successful breakdown trades Weekend Risk: Geopolitical and OPEC+ news flow considerations Position Review: Maintain swing shorts with appropriate stops Critical Levels: Weekly Bearish: Close below $62 Weekly Neutral: $62-66 range Weekly Bullish: Close above $66 --- Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Analysis OPEC+ Production Policy Impact OPEC+ production dynamics remain crucial for oil price direction. The group has left the future of production cuts uncertain after September, with OPEC+ plans to gradually ease 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts by eight countries starting in April 2025. However, geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. pressure on countries like India to stop buying Russian oil, could lead to further changes in OPEC+'s production strategy. US-India Tariff Impact Recent geopolitical developments show significant market impact, with WTI oil prices dropping from $65 to around $62.80 as markets react to new US tariffs on India, triggered by India's ongoing oil trade with Russia. This demonstrates how trade policy directly affects oil pricing dynamics. Supply-Demand Fundamentals Market fundamentals show concerning trends with WTI fluctuating between $54 and $79 amid weak global economic growth, unstable demand in China, and lower production expectations by OPEC+. The EIA projects annual average crude oil production in 2026 will decrease 0.1 million b/d on average from the record in 2025. Key Risk Factors 1. US-China Trade Relations: Demand destruction from economic slowdown 2. Middle East Tensions: Potential supply disruption premium 3. OPEC+ Policy Uncertainty: Production cut extension decisions 4. US Dollar Strength: Inverse correlation with commodity prices 5. Global Economic Growth: Recession fears impacting demand projections --- Seasonal & Cyclical Analysis Historical Seasonal Patterns September Performance: Typically weak, hurricane season concerns Q4 Seasonality: Mixed, depends on winter weather forecasts Refinery Maintenance: September-October maintenance season reduces demand Heating Oil Demand: October-November typically supports complex Economic Cycle Positioning Current Phase: Late cycle with demand concerns mounting Inventory Cycle: Drawing season transitioning to building season Refining Margins: Weak crack spreads indicating demand issues Investment Cycle: Reduced capex affecting future supply growth --- Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Detailed Analysis Current Market Structure Assessment Bull Trap Scenario (75% Probability): Characteristics: Any rally above $67 likely false breakout Volume Profile: Low volume on rallies, high volume on declines Technical Setup: Failed reclaim of key moving averages Fundamental Support: Weak demand and oversupply concerns Target Failure: Rally stops at $68-70 resistance complex Bear Trap Scenario (25% Probability): Characteristics: False breakdown below $62 creating buying opportunity Catalyst Required: Major geopolitical event or supply disruption Volume Confirmation: High volume reversal from $60-62 support Technical Reversal: Hammer or bullish engulfing at key support Breakout Target: $70-75 following trap completion Trap Identification Signals Bull Trap Confirmation: - Break above $67 on declining volume - Immediate reversal within 2-3 trading sessions - High volume selling on subsequent decline - RSI failure to confirm new highs Bear Trap Confirmation: - Sharp spike down to $60-62 on high volume - Quick reversal with gap up formation - Volume expansion on recovery move - Geopolitical catalyst supporting reversal --- Risk Management Comprehensive Framework Position Sizing Methodology Scalping Trades: 0.5-1% account risk per trade Intraday Positions: 1-2% maximum account risk Swing Positions: 2-3% account risk per established position Maximum Exposure: 6-8% total oil-related risk allocation Stop-Loss Implementation Scalping: $0.20-0.40 per barrel maximum Intraday: $0.80-1.50 per barrel based on volatility Swing Trading: Above key resistance levels ($68 for current shorts) Technical Stops: Elliott Wave and pattern invalidation levels Profit-Taking Strategy Scaling Approach: 30% at first target, 40% at second, hold 30% Trailing Stops: Implement after 2:1 favorable movement Time-Based Exits: Close before major inventory reports Pattern-Based: Honor harmonic and Elliott Wave completion zones --- Weekly Outlook Probability Matrix Bearish Scenario (Probability: 70%) Primary Catalysts: - Continued demand concerns from China and global slowdown - Strong US Dollar pressuring commodities - Technical breakdown below $62 support with volume - OPEC+ production increase implementation Price Objectives: - Initial: $60-62 - Extended: $58-60 - Crisis: $54-56 Neutral/Consolidation Scenario (Probability: 20%) Characteristics: - Range-bound trading $60-67 - Mixed inventory data and economic signals - Technical indecision at support levels - OPEC+ policy uncertainty Bullish Scenario (Probability: 10%) Risk Factors: - Major geopolitical event or supply disruption - Significant inventory draw or refinery issues - Technical reversal from $60-62 support zone - Unexpected OPEC+ production cut extension Upside Targets: - Initial: $68-70 - Extended: $72-75 - Crisis Premium: $80+ --- Long-Term Strategic Outlook Multi-Year Price Cycle Oil appears to be in a multi-year consolidation phase between $45-85, with current weakness potentially setting up major low formation in the $55-62 zone for eventual breakout above $85 targeting $110-120 by 2026-2027. Energy Transition Impact Long-term demand concerns from electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy transition continue to cap oil prices, creating ceiling around $85-90 level for sustained periods. --- Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) stands at a critical technical juncture near $64.61, exhibiting strong bearish momentum with potential for further decline toward the $58-60 zone. The confluence of technical breakdown, fundamental weakness, and geopolitical pressures suggests elevated probability for continued selling pressure. Key Bearish Factors: 1. Technical Breakdown: Clear break below $65-66 support zone 2. Fundamental Weakness: Demand concerns and oversupply issues 3. Geopolitical Pressure: US tariff policies affecting global trade 4. Seasonal Factors: Refinery maintenance season reducing demand Critical Monitoring Points: 1. $62 Support Level: Key defense line for bulls 2. Inventory Data: Weekly EIA reports for demand signals 3. OPEC+ Policy: Production cut extension decisions 4. Geopolitical Developments: Middle East tensions and trade policies Strategic Recommendation: Maintain bearish bias with tactical short opportunities on rallies to $66-68 resistance zone. Target $58-60 for major profit-taking while managing risk above $68. Any sustained move above $70 would negate bearish thesis and suggest major reversal beginning. The September-October timeframe represents critical period for direction, with potential for either accelerated decline to $55 or major reversal from $58-62 support complex. --- *This comprehensive analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Oil trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always implement appropriate risk management and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by sunya
WTI falls after US slaps 50% tariff on India over Russian oilWTI oil prices have dropped from $65 to around $62.80 as markets react to new US tariffs on India, triggered by India’s ongoing oil trade with Russia. These tariffs, along with threats of even higher tariffs on China, are weighing on global demand and pushing oil prices lower. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil production has hit multi-year highs, adding more supply to the market and reinforcing the bearish trend. Technically, oil has broken below a key Fibonacci support level, signalling a deeper pullback. If prices fall below $62, further downside toward $57 is possible. Upside moves may be short-lived unless there’s a major geopolitical shock, such as an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For now, both the macro environment and technical signals indicate continued pressure on oil prices. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:WTIShort
by ThinkMarkets
1
WTI OIL technically more chances to test the 1D MA50. Buy.Last week (August 20, see chart below) we issued a bullish break-out signal on WTI Oil (USOIL) that reached our $65.60 Target within 3 days: This time we get a new buy signal, despite today's sharp pull-back. The -12.78% decline since the July 30 rejection, resembles the one since the October 08 2024 High. This rebounded to just above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to form a new Lower High and get rejected again. As a result, our immediate short-term Target is $66.30. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:WTILong
by TradingShot
WTI Edges Up On Big EIA Draw, Risk-on ToneFundamental approach: - Last week, USOIL was modestly higher amid risk-on sentiment and tighter supply signals after a larger‑than‑expected US crude draw. - Support came from the EIA’s reported six-million-barrel crude draw tied to lower imports and stronger exports, reinforcing a tightening balance even as Cushing stocks ticked up; broader sentiment also leaned on expectations of looser Fed policy aiding demand. - Gains were tempered by mixed macro cues, fading Eastern Europe risk headlines, choppy dollar moves, and cautious positioning ahead of the next API/EIA prints. - However, China's Sinopec last week reported a sharp profit drop, citing weak fuel consumption. The trend of subdued fuel demand is likely to continue as factors including lower consumer confidence, rising electric-vehicle adoption and improved fuel efficiency are reducing petroleum demand in China. - Into late week, USOIL could firm if US inventories show continued draws and risk tone improves, while any surprise builds or de‑escalation of supply risks may cap rallies; follow‑through from Fed‑cut pricing and geopolitics could potentially steer near‑term direction. Technical approach: - USOIL found support quickly after closing below the key level at 63.90. The price is retesting both EMAs and closed above the key level at 63.90, signaling a make-or-break situation. The market awaits a clear breakout to determine the short-term movement. - If USOIL closes above both EMAs and breaks the descending trendline, the price may continue to advance to retest the following resistance at 67.50. - On the contrary, closing below the support at 63.90 may prompt a further weakness to retest the next support at 60.00. PS: I shared a piece of the above ideas on The Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by DatTong
WTI Crude Awaits Breakout Amid Sanction RisksWTI Crude Oil – Overview Oil Holds Steady on Fed Cut Bets and Sanction Risks Oil prices are flat in early trade as markets weigh the likelihood of a U.S. Fed rate cut in September against potential disruptions to Russian crude flows. Brent trades at $67.18 (-0.1%), while WTI is steady at $63.64, following a 2.5% gain last week. Fading optimism over a Russia–Ukraine summit and renewed U.S. tariff threats against India add to volatility. Markets are closely watching the Aug. 27 deadline, when secondary U.S. tariffs against India for Russian oil purchases are expected to take effect. 🔹 Technical Outlook WTI is trading in bullish momentum as long as it holds above 63.47. Price is likely to consolidate between 63.47 – 64.72 until a breakout. ✅ Above 64.72: Bullish continuation toward 65.83 → 67.20. ⚠️ Below 63.47: Bias turns bearish, targeting 61.83. 🔹 Key Levels Support: 63.47 – 61.83 Resistance: 64.72 – 65.83 – 67.20 ✅ Summary: WTI crude remains range-bound but biased to the upside, supported by Fed cut expectations and geopolitical risks. A decisive break from the 63.47–64.72 range will set the next trend direction.
TVC:USOILLong
by SroshMayi
WTI Steadies as Rate-Cut Bets and Supply Risks CollideWTI Steadies as Rate-Cut Bets and Supply Risks Collide WTI crude hovered around $64 on August 25, steady after last week’s gains as traders balanced U.S. rate-cut expectations with geopolitical risks. The Fed is seen 85% likely to cut rates in September, boosting demand outlooks. Supply concerns persist after Washington threatened 50% tariffs on Indian imports over Russian oil purchases, while India signaled it will keep buying from Moscow. Stalled Russia-Ukraine talks and renewed attacks on energy infrastructure add to uncertainty.
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by ProfessorSingapore