WTIUSD: Bearish Drop to 63.72?CFI:WTI is eyeing a bearish reversal on the 4-hour chart , with price testing resistance after recent highs, converging with a potential entry zone that could trigger downside momentum if sellers defend amid volatility. This setup suggests a pullback opportunity, targeting lower support levels with close to 1:5 risk-reward .🔥
Entry between 72.25–73.25 (entry from current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 63.72 . Set a stop loss at a daily close above 74 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of close to 1:5 . Monitor for confirmation via a bearish candle close below entry with rising volume, leveraging oil's reaction to resistance.🌟
Fundamentally , oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz have a very significant impact on oil prices, as any progress or breakdown in talks can quickly affect supply expectations and risk premium in the market. 💡
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry (Short):
72.25 – 73.25
(Entry from current price is valid with proper risk & position sizing.)
🎯 Target:
• 63.72
❌ Stop Loss:
• Daily close above 74.00
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward:
• ~ 1:5
💡 Does WTIUSD reject the 72.25–73.25 resistance zone and decline toward 63.72, or will buyers force another breakout and extend the rally? 👇
Wticrudeoil
WTI Crude Oil — Strong Rebound From the LowsWTI Crude Oil 4H — Strong Rebound From the Lows, But 74–76 Resistance Becomes the Next Major Test
1. Market Overview
WTI Crude Oil is currently trading around the 73.00–74.00 area after a strong rebound from the lower support zone near 67.00–68.00. The market had been under clear selling pressure for several weeks, but the latest recovery shows that buyers are starting to return from the lower range.
However, despite the sharp rebound, the broader structure has not fully turned bullish yet. Price is now approaching an important resistance area where sellers may try to defend the previous breakdown zone.
The key question is whether this rebound can develop into a stronger recovery, or whether WTI is simply retesting resistance before another move lower.
2. Market Structure
From a market structure perspective, WTI is still inside a broader bearish structure, but the short-term picture has improved.
The previous trend was clearly bearish, with price forming lower highs and lower lows from the higher range above 100.00. The decline accelerated after price broke below the 80.00 area and continued toward the 67.00–68.00 support zone.
The latest rebound from the lows is constructive, but it has not yet broken the bearish structure. For a more meaningful bullish shift, WTI needs to reclaim the 74.00–76.00 resistance zone and hold above it.
Until that happens, the current move should be viewed as a recovery attempt within a broader corrective trend.
3. Daily / 4H Multi-Timeframe View
On the 4H timeframe, WTI is showing strong short-term recovery momentum. Price has bounced sharply from the 67.00–68.00 area and is now testing the first major resistance zone.
From the broader daily perspective, the market still needs confirmation. The larger trend remains under pressure because price is still below previous breakdown areas. A daily close above 76.00 would improve the recovery outlook, while failure below this zone may keep the broader bearish structure intact.
In short, the 4H chart shows a strong rebound, but the daily structure still requires a confirmed breakout above resistance.
4. Key Resistance
74.00–76.00
This is the immediate key resistance zone. Price is now approaching this area, and sellers may react here because it was part of the previous breakdown structure.
78.00–80.00
If WTI breaks above 76.00, this becomes the next important upside target zone. A move into this area would suggest stronger recovery momentum.
84.00–86.00
This is the next major structural resistance zone. A sustained move above this area would be needed to confirm a broader bullish recovery.
5. Key Support
70.00–69.00
This is the nearest short-term support zone. Holding above this area would keep the current rebound structure alive.
68.00–67.00
This is the recent bottom and key demand zone. Buyers previously reacted from this area, so it remains an important support region.
65.00–64.00
This is the lower support zone. A clean break below this area would confirm renewed bearish pressure and open the door for a deeper decline.
6. Momentum & Volatility Check
Short-term momentum has clearly improved after the strong rebound from the lows.
The move from 67.00–68.00 to the 73.00–74.00 area shows that buyers have regained some control in the short term. However, momentum is now approaching a key resistance zone, so the next reaction will be important.
Volatility remains active. If price breaks above 76.00 with strength, recovery momentum may extend quickly toward 78.00–80.00. But if WTI rejects from 74.00–76.00, a pullback toward 70.00 or 68.00 may follow.
7. Bullish Factors
The first bullish factor is that buyers defended the 67.00–68.00 support zone and created a strong rebound.
The second positive sign is that price has recovered back above the 70.00 psychological level, which improves the short-term structure.
The third factor is that the rebound has been relatively sharp, suggesting that short-covering and fresh buying may be supporting the move.
A confirmed breakout above 76.00 would be the strongest signal that the recovery is gaining real momentum.
8. Bearish Risks
The main bearish risk is that WTI is now approaching the previous breakdown zone around 74.00–76.00.
If buyers fail to break above this area, sellers may use the rebound as a retest opportunity. A rejection from this zone would suggest that the broader bearish structure is still active.
A break below 70.00 would weaken the current rebound, while a move below 67.00–68.00 would suggest that the recovery has failed and that sellers are regaining control.
9. Bullish Scenario
If WTI holds above 70.00–69.00 and breaks above 74.00–76.00 with confirmation, buyers may push price toward 78.00–80.00.
If momentum remains strong above 80.00, the next upside target would be 84.00–86.00.
A sustained move above 86.00 would confirm a stronger recovery structure and weaken the broader bearish outlook.
10. Bearish Scenario
If WTI rejects from 74.00–76.00, short-term selling pressure may return.
A break below 70.00 could send price back toward 68.00–67.00. If this support zone fails, the recovery structure would weaken, and price may move lower toward 65.00–64.00.
As long as WTI remains below 76.00, sellers still have a strong argument in the broader structure.
11. Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently neutral with a cautious recovery bias.
Buyers have clearly reacted from the lower support zone, but the broader structure has not fully turned bullish yet. The market needs confirmation above 76.00 before the recovery becomes more convincing.
Above 76.00, recovery momentum may strengthen.
Below 70.00, short-term bearish pressure may return.
Below 67.00, the broader bearish structure may regain control.
12. Trading Plan Style Summary
Plan:
- Above 76.00: recovery momentum may strengthen.
- Between 70.00 and 76.00: resistance testing and consolidation may continue.
- Below 70.00: short-term bearish pressure may return.
- Below 67.00: the recovery structure may fail.
The key area to watch is 74.00–76.00. If buyers break this zone, WTI may extend toward 80.00. If sellers defend it, the rebound may turn into another lower-high retest.
13. Interactive Question
Will WTI Crude Oil break above 76.00 and continue toward 80.00? Or will sellers defend the 74.00–76.00 resistance zone and push price back toward 70.00–68.00?
Please share your view below.
WTI Crude Oil: $81 Resistance level, towards $68Hi!
I’ve been tracking this setup on WTI Crude Oil, and the bearish breakdown is playing out exactly as anticipated.
Here’s my game plan for WTI Crude Oil right now. We broke out of that massive consolidation pattern and dropped below the green zone.
Current price is sitting around $75.83, but I’m not looking to chase it short here. Instead, I’m expecting a relief bounce back up to the $81.00 resistance area first.
Once it hits that green zone and retests it as resistance, that’s where the real rejection should kick in. From there, as my purple arrow shows, the momentum should shift heavily downward, targeting a drop all the way back to the blue that was before the War price support down at $68.00.
Just stay patient and wait for that pullback to play out first.
I’m excited to announce that I’m now a Brand Ambassador for AvaTrade!
WTI(20260706) Today's AnalysisMarket News:
The World Gold Council predicts that gold prices will hover around $4,100 this year under its baseline scenario. State Street Bank expects gold prices to rise to $5,000/ounce by early 2027. Royal Bank of Canada believes that a drop in gold prices to $4,000/ounce or below will attract more buying. CICC believes that the current gold market's pricing in interest rate hike expectations may be excessive. An OMFIF survey shows that global central banks plan for the first time to net reduce their holdings of dollar assets and increase their gold holdings.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
68.64
Support and Resistance Levels:
69.81
69.37
69.09
68.19
67.91
67.48
Trading Strategy:
A break above 68.64 suggests a buy entry, with a first target price of 69.09.
A break below 68.19 suggests a sell entry, with a first target price of 67.91.
$USOUSD Idea Oil has spent the last two months doing exactly one thing: breaking structure. Since the June highs, every rally has been sold, every low has been taken, and price is now sitting inside the lower gap zone around 69, right on top of a weak low.
This is where it gets interesting. Price is compressed between untapped liquidity below and two unfilled inefficiencies above. Weak lows rarely survive, but the reaction after they're swept is what actually matters.
The key levels are clear: the resistance cluster around 72–74 where the last break of structure originated, the gap resting at 81.7–82.2, the strong high liquidity zone up at 108–112, and the untouched demand block sitting at 53–56.
From here, I see four possible paths.
Path 1: Price fails to reclaim anything, the weak low gives out immediately, and we slide straight into the 53–56 demand zone. The most aggressive continuation — no relief, just distribution.
Path 2: Price bounces into the 72–74 resistance cluster, gets rejected at the origin of the breakdown, and then rotates down toward 53–56. A cleaner short setup with better location.
Path 3: The bounce extends further and fills the gap at 81.7–82.2 before sellers step back in. Deeper retracement, same destination — the liquidity below still gets collected.
Path 4: Buyers reclaim the gap area and hold it. Structure flips, the downtrend loses its grip, and the market goes hunting the liquidity resting above the strong high around 108–112. The least likely path today, but the one nobody is positioned for.
As always, we prefer following the reaction rather than predicting it.
EQC follows the reaction.
The market decides whether this low is weak or just patient.
Hidden in plain sight. EQC.
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Financial Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor, your crypto influencer, or your emergency hotline when volatility discovers your stop loss. Always do your own research and never trade solely because colorful arrows suggest a brighter future.
WTI Crude extension to the downside below 7350 WTI Crude Oil continues to trade within the broader prevailing trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback phase.
Key Level: 7350
This area previously acted as a consolidation zone and is currently being monitored as a notable resistance level.
Scenario Below 7350
If price remains below 7350, market structure may continue to reflect near-term downside pressure. In this context, the following levels may act as reference support areas:
6730– Near-term support
6350 – Intermediate support
5720 – Broader support zone
Scenario Above 7350
A sustained move and daily close above 7350 would indicate a shift in the current short-term structure. In that scenario, the following levels may become relevant on the upside:
7730 – Initial resistance
7990 – Higher resistance zone
Conclusion
WTI Crude Oil remains below an important technical area, with 7350 acting as a key reference level for the current price structure. Price behaviour around this zone may help determine whether the market continues within the recent corrective phase or transitions toward further upside continuation.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
Financial Spread Bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.7% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
WTI(20260701) Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Federal Reserve's Hamak: Inflation remains too high, and a rate hike may need to be considered; interest rate futures show the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 80%.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
70.14
Support and Resistance Levels:
72.42
71.57
71.02
69.26
68.71
67.86
Trading Strategy:
If the price breaks above 70.14, consider buying, with a first target price of 71.02.
If the price breaks below 69.26, consider selling, with a first target price of 68.71.
WTI Crude Oil Stays Heavy Near $70 — Base Building or Bearish CoWTI Crude Oil remains under clear bearish pressure on the 4H chart. After the strong decline from the previous upper range, price continued to form lower highs and lower lows, showing that sellers have been controlling the market structure for most of the recent move. The latest price action is now consolidating around the $69–$70 area, which makes this zone important for the next directional move.
From a market structure perspective, WTI is still in a bearish structure. The market has failed to reclaim the previous breakdown zones, and each rebound has been capped below key resistance. Although the decline has slowed near the current level, the sideways movement around $69–$70 still looks more like a weak consolidation after the sell-off rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
The first key resistance zone to watch is around $70.50–$72.00. This is the nearest rebound area where sellers may continue to defend the upside. If buyers can break above this zone with confirmation, WTI may attempt a recovery toward $74.00–$75.50. A stronger recovery would require the price to reclaim the $76.00–$77.50 area, which was the previous reaction zone before the latest decline.
On the downside, the first key support zone is around $68.50–$67.50. This is the current lower consolidation area and the level buyers need to defend to avoid another breakdown. If price breaks below this zone, bearish pressure may increase again, and the next downside target could be around $65.00–$63.50.
For the bullish scenario, WTI needs to hold above $68.50–$67.50 and break above $72.00 with confirmation. If this happens, short-term recovery momentum may improve, and the price could move toward $74.00–$75.50. A sustained move above $77.50 would be needed to suggest that the bearish structure is starting to weaken.
For the bearish scenario, rejection from $70.50–$72.00 would show that sellers are still defending the rebound area. If the price then breaks below $67.50, downside pressure may return quickly, opening the path toward $65.00–$63.50. As long as WTI remains below $72.00–$75.50, rebounds may still be viewed as corrective moves inside a bearish structure.
Market sentiment remains bearish, but the price is now sitting near a short-term support area. This means volatility could increase around the $68–$70 zone. Right now, confirmation matters more than prediction: buyers need to reclaim resistance, while sellers need a clean break below support.
Above $72.00, recovery momentum may improve. Below $67.50, bearish continuation becomes more likely.
What do you think?
Will WTI defend the $68.50–$67.50 support zone and recover toward $74.00? Or will sellers break support and push crude oil toward $65.00?
Please share your view below.
WTI(20260630) Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Warsh will release the full details of the working group in the coming weeks, with all research work expected to conclude by the end of this year. After the report is completed, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will evaluate each reform proposal and determine its implementation path. Each working group leader is an external professional personally selected by Warsh, with support from key Fed staff.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
70.13
Support and Resistance Levels:
71.88
71.23
70.80
69.45
69.03
68.37
Trading Strategy:
If the price breaks above 70.80, consider buying, with a first target price of 71.23.
If the price breaks below 70.13, consider selling, with a first target price of 69.45.
WTI(20260629) Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Bank of America predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times this year. Danske Bank believes the Fed will raise rates at least twice more, and US interest rates still have room to rise further. Goldman Sachs believes Warsh's hawkish stance will exacerbate volatility in short-term US Treasuries. UBS states the market overestimates the risk of rate hikes and expects rates to remain unchanged in 2026 and easing to resume in early 2027.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
70.10
Support and Resistance Levels:
73.28
72.09
71.32
68.88
68.11
66.92
Trading Strategy:
Consider buying if the price breaks above 70.10, with a first target price of 71.32.
Consider selling if the price breaks below 68.88, with a first target price of 68.11.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Still bearish long term but currently oversold.WTI Crude Oil turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 27.589, MACD = -6.440, ADX = 59.577) as the price has completed three straight brutal red weeks, dropping from $95.50 to $69.00. This was a long overdue drop as the with the U.S.-Iran peace deal, the market would eventually go back to its pre-war levels. Very similar to what it followed after the 2022 Ukraine-Russia war. Both fractals are identical so far so there is no reason not to expect a -50.86% total decline (TP = 60.00). Given however the massively oversold state of the neutral horizon, a rebound is expected inside July-August.
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WTI(20260626) Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Data released on Thursday showed signs of a recovery in U.S. consumer demand amid rising inflationary pressures.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in June showed that inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.3% month-over-month in May 2026, reversing the stagnation in April and indicating that household spending remains resilient.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% last week, but updated quarterly projections show that policymakers expect to raise rates this year due to heightened concerns about inflation. Financial markets are betting on a rate hike as early as September, with a possible further hike afterward.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
70.81
Support and Resistance Levels:
74.33
73.02
72.16
69.45
68.60
67.28
Trading Strategy:
If the price breaks above 72.16, consider buying with a first target price of 73.02.
If the price breaks below 70.81, consider selling with a first target price of 69.45.
WTI(20260625) Today's AnalysisMarket News:
The market has largely priced in the possibility of two Fed rate hikes by the end of Q1 2027, with the first hike potentially occurring as early as the July FOMC meeting. This upward revision of expectations has directly boosted the US dollar and suppressed the performance of interest rate-sensitive precious metals.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
70.76
Support and Resistance Levels:
74.21
72.92
72.08
69.43
68.59
67.30
Trading Strategy:
A break above 70.76 suggests a buy entry, with a first target price of 72.08.
A break below 69.43 suggests a sell entry, with a first target price of 68.59.
WTI Crude pullback supported at 7000WTI Crude Oil continues to trade within the broader prevailing trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback phase.
Key Level: 7870
This area previously acted as a consolidation zone and is currently being monitored as a notable resistance level.
Scenario Below 7870
If price remains below 7870, market structure may continue to reflect near-term downside pressure. In this context, the following levels may act as reference support areas:
7000– Near-term support
6800 – Intermediate support
6560 – Broader support zone
Scenario Above 7870
A sustained move and daily close above 7870 would indicate a shift in the current short-term structure. In that scenario, the following levels may become relevant on the upside:
8090 – Initial resistance
8276 – Higher resistance zone
Conclusion
WTI Crude Oil remains below an important technical area, with 7870 acting as a key reference level for the current price structure. Price behaviour around this zone may help determine whether the market continues within the recent corrective phase or transitions toward further upside continuation.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
June 24: US Housing and Oil Inventories in Focus 🇺🇸 Today’s US calendar is centered on two key releases: New Home Sales and EIA Crude Oil Inventories.
🏠 New Home Sales (May)
The market expects sales to rise to 638K, up from 622K previously. A stronger reading would signal that housing demand remains resilient despite elevated interest rates. This could support the US dollar 💵, keep Treasury yields 📈 firm, and reinforce expectations that the Fed may stay cautious on rate cuts 🏦.
A weaker print, however, would point to softer consumer demand and could pressure USD, yields, and broader risk sentiment.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The oil inventory report can drive volatility in WTI/USOIL, energy stocks, and inflation expectations. A larger-than-expected drawdown would usually support crude prices, while an inventory build could put pressure on oil.
Because oil feeds directly into inflation expectations, this release can also affect CAD, bond yields, and overall market sentiment.
⏰ Key events in UTC
14:00 — US New Home Sales (May)
14:30 — US Crude Oil Inventories
USOIL: Bearish Pressure Remains Near Key Support
🎯 Trade setup:
Direction: Short from resistance
🔻 Entry: 73.80–74.40
🛑 Stop Loss: 75.05
🎯 Take Profit 1: 72.50
🎯 Take Profit 2: 71.80
📰 NEWs:
The latest oil news remains mostly bearish. WTI crude is under pressure after the U.S. granted a temporary 60-day waiver allowing Iranian oil sales. This reduces supply disruption fears and increases expectations that more Iranian crude could return to the market.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is also improving, which lowers the geopolitical risk premium in oil. However, the situation is not fully stable yet, so some volatility may remain.
Overall, the market is balancing between bearish supply news and short-term technical recovery attempts after a sharp decline. Fundamental background currently supports downside pressure more than a strong bullish recovery.
The news does not provide a strong bullish driver, so a pullback into resistance may be used as a potential selling opportunity.
📊 Analysis
The price remains below EMA 9, EMA 20, SMA 50, and SMA 200, which confirms that the broader short-term structure is still bearish. RSI is around the neutral zone, while MACD is still weak but trying to recover. This means a small bounce is possible, but there is no strong bullish confirmation yet.
📉 Scenario:
As long as USOIL stays below 74.40–75.05, sellers remain in control. A rejection from this resistance zone could send the price back toward 72.50. A confirmed breakdown below 72.50 may open the way toward 71.80.
A stronger bullish recovery would require the price to reclaim 75.05 and hold above the moving averages. Until then, any upside move looks more like a correction inside the downtrend.
⚠️ Not financial advice.
WTI(20260624) Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Deutsche Bank research analyst Michael Hsueh stated in a report that "the Fed's repricing, coupled with strong US macroeconomic data, is the main reason for the decline in gold prices." The bank has lowered its third-quarter gold price forecast to $4,300 per ounce, a reduction of more than one-fifth from its previous forecast, and adjusted its forecast for the last three months of the year to $4,800 per ounce.
Similar adjustments were made by Goldman Sachs. Last week, the institution lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500 to $4,900 per ounce, citing its judgment that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
73.15
Support and Resistance Levels:
75.04
74.33
73.87
72.42
71.96
71.25
Trading Strategy:
If the price breaks above 73.15, consider buying, with a first target price of 73.87.
If the price breaks below 72.42, consider selling, with a first target price of 71.96.
Oil bears are losing steam: A bullish reversal mMay be near!USOIL has gradually retreated from its highs and is currently touching the 73 level again. Although there are signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain below pre-conflict levels; moreover, it is currently peak season for oil demand, and the supply-demand imbalance remains tight, providing decisive support for crude oil.
Structurally, after the initial sell-off, the bearish momentum of USOIL is gradually weakening, coinciding with the key support zone of 73-71. If USOIL finds support in this area, bulls may gradually gain control and stabilize, potentially leading to a gradual rebound due to technical correction. Therefore, I believe that shorting USOIL at this time is unwise; instead, I think it could present a good buying opportunity!
Resistance: 80-82
Support: 73-71
Therefore, in short-term trading, I would consider going long on USOIL in the 73-71 area.
WTIUSD: Bullish Push to 85?As the previous analysis worked exactly as predicted, CFI:WTI is eyeing a bullish continuation on the 4-hour chart , with price rebounding from support after recent consolidation, converging with a potential entry zone that could ignite upside momentum if buyers defend amid volatility. This setup suggests a rally opportunity in the current structure, targeting higher resistance levels with approximately 1:2.5 risk-reward .🔥
Entry between 75–76.5 (entry from current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 85 . Set a stop loss at a daily close below 73 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:2.5. Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume, leveraging oil's sensitivity to supply dynamics.🌟
Fundamentally , recent developments in Iran-US negotiations , including tentative agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz , have the potential to gradually ease supply disruptions if implemented. However, any delays or breakdowns in talks could maintain the geopolitical risk premium supporting oil prices.
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry (Long):
75.0 – 76.5
(Entry from current price is valid with proper risk & position sizing.)
🎯 Target:
• 85.0
❌ Stop Loss:
• Daily close below 73.0
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward:
• ~ 1:2.5
Important warning: This position has a very high value. Be sure to enter with appropriate volume and careful capital management and use high leverage . 💡
💡 Does WTIUSD use the 75.0–76.5 support zone as a launchpad toward 85.0, or do you expect another consolidation phase before the next bullish impulse higher? 👇
USOIL: Bullish divergence + Hammer at $74. Long 74.30. Trade Plan:
🟢 Entry: 74.30
🛑 Stop Loss: 70.70
🎯 Take Profit 1: 77.90
🎯 Take Profit 2: 81.10
📈 Technical Picture (Daily & H1):
MACD Bullish Divergence: Price made a lower low, but MACD printed a higher low. Momentum is turning — buyers stepping.
Stoch RSI: Deep in oversold territory and already curling up. Reversal signal locked in.
🔨Hammer on H1: Clean hammer formed right at the $74 round number support. This level was tested before and held — buyers defended it again.
Support at $74: Price tried to break below this level multiple times and failed. Strong supply zone.
🗞️ Fundamental Note:
WTI is holding above $75 despite the US-Iran peace deal easing supply fears. Fed's Warsh hinted at possible rate hikes, which weighed on energy, but the $74 support remains intact. IEA forecasts a supply surplus in 2027, but near-term technicals favor a bounce.
❌ Invalidation:
A daily close below 70.70 breaks the support structure and voids the long setup.
US Oil — Support Under Pressure After Geopolitical SelloffFollowing the recent US–Iran agreement and the reopening path for the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets initially moved lower as traders reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium previously priced into energy markets. However, uncertainty remains around how sustainable this development will be and whether the market fully repriced the geopolitical impact.
From a technical perspective, US Oil remains within a broader bearish structure, continuing to trade inside the descending red channel that currently defines the overall directional bias.
After the recent decline, price has now reached an important area where the lower boundary of the bearish channel aligns with a key green support zone — creating a technical confluence that may attract buying interest and trigger a short-term reaction.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bullish scenario:
If price respects the current support and shows signs of rejection, we may see a corrective move higher within the existing structure.
→ Bearish scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks lower, further downside could become more probable, with focus shifting toward the next major support & demand zone.
For now, the key question is:
Will support trigger a rebound, or will fading geopolitical risk continue pushing oil lower?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#USOil #Oil #WTI #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #EnergyMarkets #Trading #RiskManagement






















