Update 2 on the BTC Log XABCD Butterfly & operating assumptionTLDR : Current price action around the $60.6k (1.618fib) target has put the $375k (2.618fib) target into play. Also the NVT is poised bullishly. Confirmation has not occurred for either so margin trading is for degenerates (like me) only. View the linked ideas for more information on the log harmonic XABCD butterfly, which is a very technical formation.
Introduction
My linked ideas will go over the log butterfly and why I think it is a valid formation. Those ideas have focused on the 1.618 target but technically I see the justification in the chart that puts the 2.618 closer into reach. I am pattern trader first and I use indicators to help clear up my biases and set up my trades. For example, volume is suppose to confirm all patterns. I like my margin trades to be backed up with a lot of standard and hidden divergences as possible. I was right when I called the stall at 1.618 based on the chart pattern and now there is a nested structure that can get price above the all time high, which means that an impulse to 2.618 is realistic and even probable.
Analysis
The NVT is now in the green on the 5 day, which is a pretty high time frame for it to be green on. Using the NVT isn't an exact science, but broadly speaking the longer it is in the green the more oversold it was, so the better the recovery, and the higher the time frame it enters the green on the more oversold bitcoin was compared to the network transactions values. Even if the NVT is only in the green for a few periods on the 5 day it has rallied some 40% when it enters the yellow again. If this uptrend is powerful enough we can set new highs. At the least we should get something resembling a beautiful bull trap.
The butterfly target of 1.618 has a downside target of about $625.00 That is pretty hard for people to comprehend, but that is fine. The target is the target none the less. Now the main chart shows the targeting if price reaches the 2.618 target. That target is comically low at less than $250 of full performance. Harmonic patterns are kinda humours to me in a way, because price goes up "bearishly" and down "bullishly" before the pattern snaps and targets get hit. A key point to note is that every point on the way down, X, A, B, and C are all legitimate places for the price action to stall and the pattern was still valid. If I post an update to this idea and price goes up to the 2.618 target and wicks through on the monthly and then falls to B at $13.8k and stalls there I see this series of ideas as an absolute win.
The chart below shows some flagpole analysis and is the nested structure that can perform to get price moving.
Operating Assumptions
Broadly speaking, in bull markets when you see a pattern you expect it to break bullishly, even if it is a neutral pattern. If you are trading and you find you are getting formation not quite reaching target or reversing on you so quickly you didn't move your stops to break even or to take partial profits then that is a sign the trend is changing on you. While Bitcoin was topping in 2021 my shorts did very well when things triggered. When I saw that patterns were not breaking down anymore it was time to reassess. For the last month or so my shorts have done very well again, but the last couple of ones have stalled. I went from getting full performance or over performance to having to close my shorts manually because they looked like they ran out of steam and then finally I was either stopped out just in the money or for a loss. So it is time to reassess trend. I am comfortable swing trading once I have a bias but I do best when I only take one kind of trade, either all longs or all shorts, or I wait to decide what to do. If I find myself tempted to trade against my bias then it is time to wait and reassess.
My linked ideas will show why I am so macro bearish, and even this formation goes up "bearishly" so I don't feel I am contradicting my recent posts with this idea. When you have weird economic conditions you can get a crack up" boom
"A crack-up boom is the crash of the credit and monetary system due to continual credit expansion and price increases that cannot be sustained long-term. In the face of excessive credit expansion, consumers' inflation expectations accelerate to the point that money becomes worthless and the economic system crashes. The term was coined by Ludwig von Mises, a noted member of the Austrian School of Economics and personal witness to the damages of hyperinflation." (www.investopedia.com)
I have a strong suspicion when all this is done if you cant live in it, eat it, or are addicted to it then that asset will be sold off first. That is how we get bitcoin to lose over 99.9% of its value. It isn't that far off when you have a bit of economic history that you lived. I was a young man when the dotcom bubble popped but I still read enough news to find out people lost fortunes holding on to stuff that lost over 95% of its value. My uncle worked in Silicon Valley in the tech industry and was very opinionated about outsourcing, the fact that tangibles will keep their real use value when you are hungry. He was able to make it through comfortably because he sold his company stock wherever it went up "too much". Lessons like that don't just go away easy.
Below are some of the top looser of the dotcom bubble burst. As you can see, they all lost over 85% of their value two or three times. The psychological damage can be very intense now lots of these companies, which made physical deliverables, are also pumping again. But if these investments can lose over 95% of their value, something like bitcoin, which loses 30-50% of its value and gets it back as a matter of routine, is up for quite the beating.
Even a company like Ford, with very tangible products and assets can lose over 95% of its value.
Anyway, back to trading. The flagpole chart has very easily discernible tradable entries and exits to even a new textbook trader. If we don't break the channel on the weekly time frame with a full body then the idea that price can to to the 2.618 level gets negated real quick. If price sets a new low then the idea we can get to the 2.618 level in short order gets negated. I see some bullish line breaks and chart formations on some alts I am going to margin trade long like a degenerate. But as soon as I get done with this post I am moving my stop to guarantee a tiny bit of profit and cover my funding expenses. I have enough TA to justify operating under the assumption that Bitcoin can reverse here and at least move up to 70k. In fact, the log XABCD Butterfly both justifies the stall here at 1.618 and the move higher, so I am going to go with that as well.
My most recent trade
I have not been posting too many of my alt coin trades just because I have a lot going on and those ideas can take a lot of energy and not get a lot of traction due to how few people look at them. Right now I like dydx as a long because of how strong it looks against eth and btc as it sets a floor. This trade is hoping a small ascending triangle gives me a good entry on a pump that gets price out of the falling wedge. I will be moving my stop to guaranteed profit here shortly but I am going to give this one a lot of room to run.
