DAX: Rebounded on a Double Support. Hold or break?DAX just turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.733, mACD = -150.400, ADX = 32.264) but rebounded today not only on the HL trendline but more importantly its 1D MA200. This is a massive support cluster for the Megaphone pattern, which is similar to the one that emerged the same time last year. As long as the 1D MA200 holds, expect at least a 1D MA50 test (TP = 25,800). If the 1D MA200 breaks, it's more likely to see a 1W MA100 test (TP = 23,900). Keep a tight SL on the long in orde
Xetra
DAX Triangle giving a strong Buy Signal.2.5 months ago (see chart below), we issued a buy signal on DAX (DE40), which hit our 24600 Target within 2 weeks:
This time the price finds itself at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of a 3-month Triangle. Every Bullish Leg of this pattern was confirmed after the price closed a candle above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), something the index did 2 days ago.
As a result, we turn bullish again here on DAX, targeting the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern at 24400.
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DAX Can today's 1D MA50 test start a new rally?Last time we looked at DAX (DE40) more than 2 months ago (April 04, see chart below), we took a long-term buy on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the bottom of the 2.5-year Channel Up, targeting 25400:
The price reacted favorably, rising almost instantly, almost hitting the top of the Channel Up on June 05. Since then it got rejected and pulled back to hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today.
Based on the previous Bullish Legs of the Channel Up, this seems to be a technical correction
DAX: forming the 1st Golden Cross since December!DAX has just turned bullish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.773, MACD = 85.200, ADX = 45.497) and tonight will form the first 4H Golden Cross in 5 months (since December 2nd 2024). This comes to compliment a 1D MACD Bullish Cross that was formed last week. The pattern is identical to the November - December rise and as you see both rebounds took palce on the S1 level. We are long, expecting the R1 level to be tested (TP = 23,480).
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DAX Ultimate buy signal on the 1D MA200 approaching.DAX is having a brutal sell-off, which wasn't technically unexpected as the index made a Higher High on March 06 at the top of its 2.5-year Channel Up. The 1D RSI is already oversold (below 30.00), which is the initial long-term buy signal. Out of the last 3 times the 1D RSI was oversold only on September 26 2023 it extended the downtrend. The other 2 times, it was an immediate buy signal.
The ultimate buy signal, if you want to wait for it, was last time (August 05 2024 Low) when the 1D MA200
DAX: Channel Up, Bullish Cross targeting 22,500DAX turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.428, MACD = 367.400, ADX = 47.746) which is signalling a strong uptrend ahead, especially with the 4H RSI rising on a Bullish Cross. The last time the Channel Up pattern traded on those numbers it was on January 15th, again after a 4H MACD Bullish Cross and a bottom bounce. That time it increased by +7.50%. That is again our medium term target (TP = 22,500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxtl;dr
dax xetra: Market has printed the most shallow two-legged pullback imaginable and this is as bullish as it gets. Are bulls getting stopped by at least 2 upper trend lines which could continue to be resistance? I highly doubt it. If we get above 20600, there is no reason to not just go to 21000 or higher. I have two potential measured moves above 21000 but until we have a daily close above 20800, there is no reason to look for targets that high. Bears can only begin to dream again with a d
#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Bullish if we get above 19400 and have a daily close there on Monday. Neutral otherwise. Bullish bias was correct last week and bulls broke above the bear trend line. They have made higher highs and lows and are in control again. I have many blow-off top targets above for all markets and if bulls get follow through next week, chances are very good that we reach them before we see a bigger correction. Bears can only hope to keep it below 1
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Neutral. Market dipped below previous support bears could not close at the lows and market reversed to trade back above the big number 19000. Bears had a great setup with the head & shoulders and it failed. If bulls can get above 19350 again, many bears will probably give up and only try again above 19500. Daily close below 19000 will probably be the death signal for prices above and we go down to 18000. I still don’t know if we print 180
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Bearish. Bears finally got some follow through lower and got near 19000. Next they want to keep the pullback shallow and get a second leg down to weekly 20ema around 18800 which is also where the next bull trend line is on my chart. There we will see if it was low enough for bulls to buy or if we have to get even lower to 18000. Bulls need to get above 19400 and bears below 19000.
Quote from last week:
Market closed 200 points lower t
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: Max bullish for 19500/19600. Bulls have all the arguments if they stay above 19200. 19000-19200 is neutral and only a daily close below 19000 could start a bear case. My base assumption is that we are in W5 of this bull trend which could lead up to 20000.
dax xetra
Quote from last week:
comment: Bearish scenario played out during the week and bears managed to reach the lower bull trend line which bulls happily bought on Friday. Right now
2024-10-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax - Look at the xetra 1h chart because it’s clearer there than on futures. 4 legs down and we have not touched the 1h 20ema on xetra since Tuesday. Strong follow through selling and there is an open gap down to 18928. Since we are seeing continues episodes of buying, I do expect this gap to get closed on a spike and we might go neutral or green into the weekend. We are right at the bull trend line from beginning of August and I highly doubt it wil
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: New ath but market rejected it with -300+ points. Bulls are still inside nested bull wedges and a big bull channel on the weekly/monthly chart. I favor bulls as long as the current bull wedge is alive but we could test down to 18500 on Monday. Bulls should not let it get below 18400. Above 19000 I expect another ath and targets above are 19100/19200.
Quote from last week:
comment: Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesda
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: Neutral. Won’t be running into any more traps again. Both sides have reasonable arguments but bulls closed last week at the highs, so bulls are slightly favored. Best pattern currently is probably the big bull wedge we are in. Bulls want a retest of the ath 18990 and bears below 18000. Bullish above 18750 and bearish below 18200, neutral in between.
Quote from last week:
comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull tren
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: Full bear mode. Bull trap and of August after making a new ath. Market is clearly in a hurry to go down again. Stairs up, elevator down. Most likely the bear gap to 18750 will stay open and every short sl has to be around that price. 1. tp is 50% pullback 18000 and as of now I expect a pullback there or more sideways movement. Below 18000 we will see 17400 fast.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls printed a new ath and if you would look
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
4th consecutive bull bar closing on it’s high. Low volume but who cares. Can only be bullish on this price action. Futures are close to the ath while xetra already made a new ath. 19000 on xetra will most likely be hit next week. Will bears come around there to trap late bulls? Maybe but I would not bet on that. R:R (risk:reward) is on the bear side here but it’s too early to short. Could even go up to 19200 before turning.
Quote from last week:
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: 18700 was my upper target for the week and the high was 18730. Market now created 3 legs up but we don’t know high leg 3 can get. There is no reason to assume bears will begin stronger selling. If 18730 holds next week, consider me surprised. A bigger pullback after a 9% move up is expected but as of now, there are no facts to base this on. Shorting into a strong bull trend is a losing strategy in the long run. Targets for bulls are 18800, 1890
DAX weekly forecast from April 2nd, 2024Situation assessment XETR:DAX
1. We have reached another trend reversal zone
2. In our opinion, “much” after “above” is no longer possible in the future
We would like to apologize for the inaccuracy of last week's forecast {wink} when we headlined as follows:
1. Weekly UP peak: between 18,406 and 18,518 (Bonus: 18,630)
2. In perspective, EUREX:FDAX1! The next striking decision zone is 18,777 (+/-) in focus.
The weekly XETR:DAX peak was reached with 5 points
DAX Time to respect the 17-year Channel and correct.Exactly 3 months ago (December 06 2023, see chart below), we set a 17800 Target on DAX (DE40) and the index hit that level yesterday:
At the time DAX was the first major stock index to hit new All Time Highs (ATH) and as we mentioned it "sent a message to indices globally". And followed they did, as all markets followed this lead and rose aggressively.
This time however, DAX is sending a bearish signal as by hitting 17800 it reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 17-year Channel
DAX Channel Down aiming at 16000DAX (DE40) has transitioned into a Channel Down pattern following the December 14 top rejection on the Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is fast approaching as the first level of Support but we expect it downtrend to bottom lower as resembles the declines of August 2023, March 2023 and December 2022 both on price and 1D RSI terms.
All those declines have been extended at least to -6.50% so if the current pattern continues to replicate them, we expect a 1D MA200 (orange tren
DAX Watch this low risk November trading plan.It's been a bit long since we last took a trade on DAX (DE40) but it didn't disappoint as it hit both our buy and sell targets (see chart below) within the 3-month Channel Down:
The rebound took place within the 6-month Support Zone and slightly under the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), similar to the March 20 rebound. The fractals are identical as they both rebounded aggressively, indicating strong demand inside the Support Zone. Both also formed a strong 1D MACD Bullish Cross straight after
DAX Rejection on the MA50 (4h).DAX remains inside a Channel Down pattern. The price just got rejected on the MA50 (4h).
The pattern so far matches exactly the first bearish sequence of the pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price and keep as long as the price trades under it.
Targets:
1. 14950 (-3.75%, symmetry with August).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) is on the exact same level as the August 11th rejection on the MA50 (4h).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
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