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XLE

Is oil signalling a recession? Oil has really started to free fall. The death cross on the daily chart has occurred. this is where the 50 MA intersects with the 200 MA in a downtrend. This often implies more downside to the medium and long term but is often a great short term long signal. Usually when you get this signal the market makers bounce the stock or commodity a bit before taking it lower. We are hitting a massive multi year trend line going back to 2022 that should act as some support. XLE looks ready for 1 more down leg before a swing tradable low is in. Energy does have a tendency to fall precipitously so understanding oil can keep falling if investors fear the worst or a recession.
AMEX:XLE
by Trading-Capital
5
Opened (IRA): XLE August 16th 85 Monied Covered Call... for an 83.77 debit. Comments: Some of the only red on my ETF board ... . Here, selling the -75 delta call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. There is also a divvy to be had some time in June, with the last distribution being .73. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 83.77 Max Profit: 1.23 ($123) ROC at Max: 1.47% 50% Max: .62 ($62) ROC at 50% Max: .74%
AMEX:XLELong
by NaughtyPines
See you later ChevronNYSE:CVX note the following directional arrows are concepts and how I want to enter With firms rotating out of AMEX:XLE we can expect some of the sectors top holdings and laggers get downside potential. Looking more into this I found NYSE:CVX to be the best candidate. NYSE:CVX and other gas stocks seem to be the ones catching the momentum down. Chevron also is following the same structure as AMEX:XLE which if AMEX:XLE gets the drop Monday we can expect NYSE:CVX to follow. Expected Range - Upside $158.78 Downside $151.82 Key Levels - $153.37 - $153.59, $155.05 - $155.30, $155.61 - $156.94 Rating - Rotation out of AMEX:XLE +5, Rising volume near pivot +1, formed a base (slowed down)/topping wicks after break of base +1, same weakness as AMEX:XLE +1 8/10 Bullish, 2/10 Bearish
NYSE:CVXShort
by OakFDom
Natural Gas: A Mega Move is BrewingNatural Gas has been a very volatile asset in recent sessions. The price action in the 4 hour chart has triggered a bullish breakout. The next bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart is starting to take shape. This pattern has not yet triggered. If we see a breakout of this pattern there is about $1.50 of upside from the neckline. Resource stocks are still holding up very well, granted so is the market. A very similar structure is playing out on the weekly chart, regarding the 50 Weekly MA If we see price trade in congruency we should see more upside this week and then potentially we may see some sellers the folling week
AMEX:UNG
by Trading-Capital
1
May Market Outlook, Sectors Rotation, Relative Strength AnalysisSince February, the commodities asset class has surged ahead, overshadowing the S&P 500's faltering performance. This notable shift in market dynamics underscores the resilience and strength exhibited by commodities during this period. Of particular interest are the XLE and XLU sectors, which have emerged as frontrunners since early March. This transition coincided with the decline in momentum of previously dominant sectors like XLK and SMH (refer to Fig. 2). Notably, XLE and XLU, characterized as growth defensive sectors, have thrived amidst market downturns. Investing in commodities and energy/utility sectors during these phases could have yielded significant profits, with select energy stocks boasting returns exceeding 25%, while the S&P 500 experienced an approximate 10% decline. Looking ahead to May, it's anticipated that XLE and XLU will maintain their market leadership, albeit with a slight loss in momentum. However, investors are advised to remain vigilant as these sectors may soon witness a change in dynamics. It's crucial to employ stop limit orders to safeguard profits in such volatile conditions. Following the current trajectory, XLY, XLRE, and XLF are poised to emerge as significant players in the market cycle (refer to Fig. 3&4). However, it's important to note that these sectors are susceptible to rapid momentum shifts, particularly when XLK and XLC regain momentum. Looking towards June, indications suggest that XLK and XLC will likely regain prominence in the market. For buy-and-hold investors, this presents an opportune moment to consider purchasing assets during market dips. Considering these market dynamics, my top investment picks are (TSLA), (GOOG), (AAPL), (ORCL), and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). These companies demonstrate strong growth potential, especially when timed strategically to align with sector rotation leadership shifts.
AMEX:XLELong
by DubaiTradersHub
Solar stocks follow energy prices (crude oil).Solar stocks follow energy prices (crude oil) and AMEX:USO (oil etf) is about to break out. I read that chinese are outcompeting the west in cheaper solar products. ie NYSE:JKS TNX is at bull market, crude oil and yields correlate (not sure which one cause the other). I look at everything trough probabilities since nothing is ever known. Stocks do bad when economy does good. But energy sector performs well during good economy, whilst everything else is falling (Tech). Peak tech means bottom for energy? I think these are good hedge plays, if you believe rising oil or yields pose risk. Recently Chinese gov asked Jack Ma to return because their financial markets did poorly. There could be a sentiment shift, where indicator will be NYSE:BABA performance. People might still have an old bias?
AMEX:TANLong
by citsvar
Opened (IRA): XLE April 19th 88 Covered Call... for a 85.43 debit. Comments: Looking to attempt to grab the March dividend, which has been averaging around .80 over the past four distributions. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 85.43 Max Profit: 2.57 ($257) ROC at Max (ex. dividend): 3.01% ROC at Max (w/dividend): 3.94% (assuming an .80 distribution) ROC at 50% Max (ex. dividend): 1.50% ROC at 50% Max (w/dividend): 2.44% (assuming an .80 distribution)
AMEX:XLELong
by NaughtyPines
Occidental Petroleum Corp.: Bullish Bias. ContinuationTo be successful on Wall Street, it is important to be flexible and be able to recognize changing market winds - the patterns that tell investors when to get in and out of the market. Sometimes a breeze is a warm and inviting wind: assets rise in value, and it seems that everyone is making money. Other times, it turns into a violent storm, leaving in its wake financial destruction, memories of the past, and hope that better times are yet to come. Occidental Petroleum Corporation (often abbreviated as Oxy in reference to the symbol and logo) is an American company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration in the United States and the Middle East, as well as petrochemical production in the United States, Canada and Chile. The oil company, among other Value Investing Assets, has become one of the main beneficiaries of the weakening and reversal of WFH ("Working From Home") disinflationary trends that quickly shook the entire financial world against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic in Q1 2020. But faded also just as quickly, while since the first quarter of 2021, in two years, many growth assets have been undermined, rocked by scandals, or completely destroyed. It was revealed in March that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway added more shares to an already large bet on Occidental Petroleum, according to an SEC Form 4 report released on March 7, 2023. The Buffett conglomerate bought nearly 5.8 million shares of the oil company over multiple trading sessions in March, at prices ranging from $59.85 to $61.90, according to the documents. Berkshire now owns 200.2 million shares of Occidental, totaling 22.2% of the oil company's shares, up from 21.4% previously. Occidental shares are currently among the top 10 Berkshire holdings. The energy company outperformed the S&P 500 index last year, more than doubling in price. In March, Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said in an interview with CNBC that she met with the 92-year-old investor, noting that they talked about the oil and gas industry and related technologies. Last August, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of Occidental, sparking speculation that Berkshire could eventually buy out the entire Occidental company. Berkshire also owns $10 billion of preferred shares in Occidental and has warrants to buy another 83.9 million shares of common stock for $5 billion, or $59.62 each. The warrants were obtained as part of the company's 2019 deal that helped finance the purchase of Anadarko Occidental. While many investors even now continue to believe in the crypto-snow that melted without a trace the winter before last, the technical picture indicates the possibility of Growth comtinuation in value investment assets, incl. Occidental Petroleum - after the completion of the 0.618x Fibonacci retrace to the Growth that began later to Russian President "Special Military Operation" announcement in Q1'22. Also, the support of weekly SMA (200) in CL1! - Crude Oil Futures adds bullish bias to market participants.
NYSE:OXY
by PandorraResearch
11
WTI Jumps to $78, Key Fibo Level - The Next Big Risk?Mega-cap tech’s climb to jumpstart 2024 fooled many strategists who called for value, cyclical, and small-cap niches to outperform. The same old playbook has been in full swing, but could that be about to change? Consider that banks, not chips, ended this week at fresh multi-year highs following a late-week pullback among the big semiconductor names. But there’s more action out there that few are paying attention to. Have you seen WTI crude oil recently? Tensions in the Red Sea have been ongoing for many weeks, but it has just been over the last few sessions that WTI has taken flight. The prompt month now trades near $78. Gasoline futures, meanwhile, rose above $2.30, implying a national retail pump price average near $3.25 over the coming weeks. Consumers might not like that, and it would come immediately after a sanguine set of University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers for January. We will get an updated read on that Friday next week. I also point out in today’s featured chart that US light sweet crude oil is now at a pivotal Fibonacci retracement level on the chart. Watch how the bulls and bears battle it out as the calendar flips to February. If we rally through $78, and hold it on pullbacks, a rotation in the market could very well take place, right as mega-cap tech reports Q4 results.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by mikezaccardi
oil and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further read my post from may: --- in may of 2023 i called the top on oil and projected we come down into the $50-60 range. we ended up playing it out quite flawlessly. a lot of people were very angry at me for whatever reason back when i was calling for the top, probably due to their elevated levels of confidence and greed. those people got wiped out. today, i bring to you a follow-up prediction, in line with my us10y prediction. --- i'm predicting that oil hits $181 per barrel over the next year, which will cause a secondary wave of inflation. --- oil w5 algo = $181
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by notoriousbids
6
Tech stock Vs Energy stocks. The Competition for Decades This is an education-style publication where the main graph is a comparison (ratio) between two ETFs (funds) managed by State Street Global Advisors Corporation, the creator of the world’s first ETF (well-known in nowadays as AMEX:SPY ) and an indexing pioneer. The first one ETF is The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLK . 👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the Technology sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX . 👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide precise exposure to companies from Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals; software; communications equipment; semiconductors and semiconductor equipment; IT services; and electronic equipment, instruments and components. 👉 AMEX:XLK is a place where securities of American World-known Technology companies like Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , like Nvidia Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA and American Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD , like Cisco Systems Inc. NASDAQ:CSCO and Adobe Inc. NASDAQ:ADBE meet together. 👉 In contrast with other Technology-related ETFs like NASDAQ:QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq 100 Index ETF) or NASDAQ:ONEQ (Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF), stocks allocation in AMEX:XLK depends not only on their market capitalization, but also hugely on Technology industry allocation (like software, technology hardware, storage & peripherals, semiconductors & semiconductor equipment, IT services, communications equipment, electronic equipment instruments & components). That is why allocation of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLK ( Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Broadcom Inc. NASDAQ:AVGO ) prevails 50 percent of Funds assets under management. 👉 Typically AMEX:XLK holdings are Growth investing stocks. The second one ETF is The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLE . 👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the energy sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX . 👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide precise exposure to companies in the oil, gas and consumable fuel, energy equipment and services industries. 👉 AMEX:XLE allows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional style based investing. 👉 AMEX:XLE is a place where stocks of American World-known Oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM and Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX , like EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG and ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP , like Valero Energy Corp. NYSE:VLO and Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX meet each other. 👉 Weight of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLE (Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM , Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX and EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG ) prevails 45 percent of Funds assets under management. 👉 Typically AMEX:XLE holdings are Value investing stocks. The main graph represents different stock market stages of work 🔁 Early 2000s, or post Dot-com Bubble stage, that can be characterized as Energy Superiority Era. There were no solid Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR were huge like nowadays. Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jumped as much as $150 per barrel. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds collapsed more than in 10 times over this stage. 🔁 Late 2000s to early 2010s, or post Housing Bubble stage, that can be characterized as a Beginning of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned lower. Bitcoin born. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds hit the bottom. 🔁 Late 2010s to early 2020s, or post Brexit stage, that can be characterized as a Continuation of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned to Zero or so. Crude oil turned to Negative prices in April 2020 while Bitcoin hit almost $70,000 per coin in 2021. Ben Bernanke (14th Chairman of the Federal Reserve In office since Feb 1, 2006 until Jan 31, 2014) was awarded the 2022 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, jointly with Douglas Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig, "for research on banks and financial crises", "for bank failure research" and more specifically for his analysis of the Great Depression. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds becomes great and respectively with monetary stimulus hit the all time high. 🔁 Early 2020s, or post Covid-19 Bubble stage, that specifically repeats early 2000s Energy Superiority Era. There is no again Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR are huge nowadays like many years ago. Commodities prices like Wheat CBOT:ZW1! , Cocoa ICEUS:CC1! , Coffee ICEUS:KC1! , Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jump again to historical highs. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds is fading to moderate levels that can be seen as 200-Month simple moving average. 💡 In a conclusion.. I wonder, how the history repeats itself. This is all because markets are cyclical, and lessons of history always still remain unlearned. 💡 Author thanks PineCoders TradingView Community, especially to @disster PineCoder for its excellent and simple script Quantitative Easing Dates . Based on this script, Easing Dates are highlighted at the graph.
AMEX:XLKEducation
by PandorraResearch