badass divergence OBV price on ASMLcrazy divergence , for the discounted price of ASML, 1000$ is the fair valueLongby TheAverageTrader00110
Randstad: A Value Caution in a Shifting LandscapeRandstad NV (AEX: RAND) currently trades around €41.55 with a market cap of approximately €7.62 billion. While many investors may be drawn to its strong dividend history and solid reputation in staffing, a closer look at the fundamentals and macroeconomic outlook suggests that the market may be overestimating its near‐term growth prospects. Declining Profitability A review of Randstad’s recent financials is cause for caution. The company’s net income has shown a marked deterioration over recent years—from €929 million in 2022 to €624 million in 2023 and further down to €272 million on a nine‑month basis in 2024. This steep decline is partly due to mounting operating costs and weakening revenues. From a Buffett perspective, a business with persistent profitability erosion—even one with a storied track record—may have its intrinsic value overstated relative to its current market price. Earnings Release Timing: Pre‐Market Clarity Randstad’s Q4 2024 earnings are scheduled for release on February 12, 2025, at 01:00 AM CET—well before the regular trading hours (pre‑market) on the Amsterdam exchange. This timing can sometimes lead to volatility, as the market digests the numbers before the open. In a scenario where the figures further confirm the declining trends in net income and margins, the pre‑market reaction could set the tone for a downtrend next week.  Macroeconomic Headwinds Beyond company-specific issues, broader economic signals weigh on Randstad’s prospects. Staffing firms are inherently tied to the health of the labor market. Recent reports indicate that while headline figures such as a 143,000-job gain in January might appear robust, underlying trends—including uncertainty over labor market stability and rising concerns over long‑term employment—suggest caution. An environment of higher unemployment (or the fear thereof) can dampen demand for staffing and recruitment services as companies curtail expansion plans. In other words, if fewer people are employed, fewer job openings and less turnover can translate into lower revenues for Randstad over time.  The Technology Disruption Factor Adding another layer of risk, the accelerating pace of technological advancement—particularly in artificial intelligence—could further disrupt traditional staffing. As AI and automation drive efficiencies, many roles traditionally filled through temporary or permanent placement may become obsolete. This transformation not only dampens the immediate demand for recruitment services but also challenges long‑term earnings growth forecasts. When future cash flows are discounted in a model, even a modest shock to growth expectations can result in a present value that is lower than the current market price. Index Inclusion and Credit Concerns Another point to consider is Randstad’s position as the smallest company in the AEX index. Index inclusion is not merely a matter of prestige; it also affects liquidity and investor perception. Losing its spot in the index would heighten uncertainty and could trigger a reassessment of its creditworthiness. A downgraded credit score would raise borrowing costs—further squeezing margins in an already challenging operating environment. A Cautionary DCF Under a Short‑Term Shock A refined look at Randstad’s valuation—one that factors in its debt—offers additional perspective on the risks ahead. In our pessimistic scenario—where net income falls to around €300 million, the perpetual growth rate declines to 2.5%, and the discount rate rises to 7% (reflecting increased credit risk)—the resulting firm value (or enterprise value) comes out to approximately €6.67 billion. However, since this figure represents the value of both debt and equity, we must subtract the net debt to determine the value attributable solely to shareholders. Assuming net debt is roughly €1.38 billion, the estimated equity value would be about €5.29 billion. Dividing that by the 175.14 million shares outstanding gives an estimated share price of around €30. This refined approach, which includes the effect of debt, reinforces the view that a short‑term earnings shock combined with a less favorable long‑term outlook could significantly compress Randstad’s share price. Conclusion In the spirit of Warren Buffett’s careful, long‑term analysis, the case for Randstad appears to be one of caution rather than opportunity. Persistent declines in profitability, headwinds from both macroeconomic signals and technological disruption, and risks associated with its index position all point toward a stock that may be overpriced relative to its intrinsic value. With the pre‑market earnings release scheduled for February 12 (01:00 AM CET), investors should be prepared for potential downside pressure in the coming week if the results confirm these concerns. In summary, while Randstad remains a well‑managed company with a solid track record, its recent decline in profitability, exposure to macroeconomic headwinds, and risks from technological disruption suggest that its current price may be overoptimistic. A simple DCF analysis—even one that factors in debt—underscores this caution: under a short‑term earnings shock scenario, the estimated share price could drop to around €30. For value investors who prize long‑term clarity and rational assessment, these multiple signals warrant a careful reassessment of Randstad’s outlook.Shortby The_Prince2
VIE - +16% upside with 1:4 RR Excellent RR ratio Good Theme with EU stocks moving well Utilities And great pattern formation and basing period. Longby subtlepapi1
ASML is at its peak 2025ASML at its peak, machine sales to deminish as Quantum computing is taking overShortby develuse112
Livestock and Poultry Sector On February 3, 2025The global livestock and poultry sector is grappling with challenges due to escalating feed costs and supply constraints. Key commodities such as corn ACTIVTRADES:CORNH2025 and soybeans CBOT:ZS1! , which constitute a major portion of animal feed, have seen substantial price increases driven by adverse weather conditions, reduced crop yields, and heightened demand for biofuels. These factors are putting pressure on producers, particularly in the U.S., where red meat and poultry production is expected to decline by 2% in the current year compared to the previous one. In addition to rising feed costs, outbreaks of diseases like Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have further strained production capabilities. The U.S., one of the largest exporters of poultry products, has experienced widespread culling of flocks, leading to a reduction in supply and subsequent price hikes. According to the USDA, wholesale prices for chicken breasts have surged by 15%, while beef prices have increased by 8% year-over-year. This trend is likely to persist as producers continue to face elevated input costs and logistical hurdles. All the data can be found in WASDE report . Impact on Global Trade Dynamics The contraction in U.S. meat production is reshaping global trade patterns, creating opportunities for alternative suppliers. Countries like Brazil and Argentina, major players in the global meat market, are capitalizing on the situation by increasing their export volumes to traditional U.S. markets, including Asia and Europe. For instance, Brazilian exports of beef BMFBOVESPA:BEEF3 and poultry BMFBOVESPA:BRFS3 rose by 10% in Q4 2024, underscoring the shifting dynamics in international trade. Meanwhile, China's growing self-sufficiency in pork production following the recovery from African Swine Fever (ASF) has reduced its reliance on imports, impacting global demand for pork. Investors should also note the potential long-term implications of these shifts. As countries diversify their sourcing strategies, regions with lower production costs and robust infrastructure may gain a competitive edge. This could lead to sustained changes in market share distribution among key players. Investment Implications For investors, the current environment presents both risks and opportunities. Companies involved in alternative protein sources, such as plant-based meats and aquaculture, may benefit from increasing consumer interest in cost-effective and sustainable options. Additionally, advancements in feed efficiency technologies and genetic improvements in livestock breeding offer promising avenues for investment. On the other hand, traditional meat producers may struggle unless they can effectively manage rising input costs through vertical integration or operational efficiencies. From a regional perspective, emerging markets with favorable agricultural conditions and supportive government policies are likely to attract capital. Investors should closely monitor developments in countries like India, Thailand, and Vietnam, where poultry and aquaculture sectors are expanding rapidly. Inference The livestock and poultry sector faces challenges stemming from high feed costs and disease outbreaks. While these issues are pressuring global meat supplies and influencing trade flows, they also create opportunities for innovation and diversification. By staying informed about market trends and technological advancements, investors can position themselves to capitalize on the evolving landscape of the global protein industry.by juliakhandoshko0
Alfen longAlfen, a Dutch company with a lot of potential. When it crashed 90% it got my attention again. It is back to where it was in 2018/2019. Although the price falls, the RSI rises. I also see a price cap on the daily timeframe, approximately between 21-32 euros. I wouldn't be surprised if Alfen starts to skyrocket now. I keep graphs, but more on a macro level (timeframes of decades). I noticed this by chance and it seems interesting, also because I think that car charging stations and energy storage will become interesting in the coming years. Note: I am not a trader or anything like that!Longby KrijgsmanUpdated 558
Dassault SystemesIs DSY a buy? Good chart, very good profitability, but low floating capital and high P/E.Longby Theing0
ASML HOLDING N.V - BUY APPROVEDASML Buy Recommendation is Certified. 1. The major trendline since 2009 has been tested and remains solid. 2. The Fibonacci retracement is currently at the 0.618 level, the ultimate prime level. 3. The Fibonacci extension consistently proves accurate. 4. The presidential election year is historically the best time to invest, plus the stock is currently discounted. 5. ASML holds a global monopoly in EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography technology. 6. Earnings have consistently been excellent, with the company being highly profitable. 7. Some market pressures are driven by American interests, aiming to undermine ASML in order to prevent the sale of machines to China. TARGET: 1450 EURLongby TheAverageTrader00Updated 1119
ASML - Downtrend & Push backTREND According to the current wave structure, it is in the downtrend. Characteristically, it is used to create pull and push backs after support/resistance breakout. So we can expect similar behavior now. It has not formed a channel yet, but a probable channel can be estimated as on the chart. Moving Averages The current price is under 100-day (Turquoise) (so supports downtrend) 50-day (Orange) will most likely cross 100-day (Turquoise) from up to down (powerful indicator supporting downtrend) in two weeks, unless prices exceeds 50-day. 200-day (Blue) has just worked as a support, but the next momentum is expected to be more powerful resulting a potential breakout of 200-day support. SUMMARY Based on this analysis, a price action following the blue arrow is highly probable.Shortby EmreSrnUpdated 7
Bearish Brutal setup 1D ABN AMROAgain trying a bearish brutal setup, in which 2 ATR EFI is slightly above 0 and Stochastic RSI is turning, also resistance rejection of 15.21 E. 15,02 TP 14,47 SL. 15,3 Trade #00010 7 trades now closed: 5 out of 7 worked out (hitrate 71,43%)Shortby Tornado_TradingUpdated 1
Revisit MSR bullish div HEIA 1DMSR bullish div again, after last one that failed. Both 1W and 1D V1 buy trigger, only stochastic RSI on 1D is not turning up yet. TP1 70,26 E 68,26 SL 67,01 Trade #00008 by Tornado_TradingUpdated 110
RI - 3M - Pernod Ricard MacroHi guys, Macro view on Pernod Ricard Hard to tell the shape of the correction for now. Could be either a zigzag or a flat ... let's see how it goes in the next months. Like for support :) by Ayer1
ASML Swing Trade - ShortFor my first trade of the year, I will take a stab at ASML. The share has failed to break through an established resistance (red line), and MACD and price action suggest a bearish move. My profit target is 608, close to the next support I identified (green line). My stop will be just over the resistance line, resulting in a 2R target for this trade. Happy New Year, fellow traders! Let's go!Shortby lissnema83Updated 442
ASML bouncing backASML in an ideal buy point, the obv indicates a coming back of inflow money.Longby Theing4
ARKEMAArkema - monthly There is a chance of rallying prices after closing the former gaps on downside. W-X-Y pattern which intends a long lasting correction. The gaps are mentioned in red. Otherwise, there is a minimum target at 40,62 EUR.by armandogui0
Heineken Missing Right Shoulder Bullish div on 1D MSR bullish div Bullish div on 6 indicators I check: MACD-H EFI mLines ATR price div EFI ATR div Stoch RSI V1 buy trigger as well, and turning up now, impuls on 4H chart even green Even V1 buy trigger on weekly, and diverging bottom on weekly as well. TP1 70,89 TP2: 71,66 Entry: 69,1 SL 68,04 Trade #00005Longby Tornado_TradingUpdated 110
Bullish div on 1D ABN AMROEntry: 14.595 Exit: 14.99 SL: 14.39 Bullish div MACD-H, not EFI, after long bar down it pulls up now. -1 ATR being kept as support. sRSI bullish. Trade #00002by Tornado_TradingUpdated 0
ASML in a bullish patternASML in a bullish channel after consolidating for more than an year.Longby RabishankarBiswal9
[GLE] French Bank StockFirst time I am really interested by a banking stock and even more on this one after the 2008 crisis. Here I want to see a big breakout of the weekly resistance level, this can then lead to a huge rally for the up side with 50€ as big target. We have to manage the trade in case the break doesn't happen and we see some reversal short ... then a short swing can become a great idea Great Trade !Longby ArnoSG1
[SAF] French Stock ReversalOn this very strong French Stock I waited this level for a long time and it has been my main profit level from years ago. Now I am looking for a corrective move to then enter back on it for the long terme. I am now trying to play the short side of the correction on the TLB anticipation. This is my first entry and try, let's see next week if I have to adapt and modify my entry point to re-enter later ... strong conviction on this one. Great Trade !Shortby ArnoSG1
[CAP] French Stock InvestmentStarting to build my long position on this strong French Stock. My first target is the historical high and we will manage the position above the watching levels. Great Trade !Longby ArnoSG1
[AI] Air Liquide French Stock InvestmentBuilding an investment position on Air Liquide on this level. I wanted to wait more near 150€ but start to feel some reversal momentum so I anticipate a little bit my first entries to this level. Great Trade !Longby ArnoSG1
[RNO] H&S Renault French Stock InvestmentAfter my previous entries on this French Stock, I now continue to load more on a Reversal H&S pattern for long investment opportunity. My investment exit price will be arount 200€ for this stock. Great Trade !Longby ArnoSG2