Buy Candidate: Thales SAIdea sourced via technical screener.
Thales (Euronext Paris: HO) is a global leader in advanced technologies for the Defence, Aerospace, and Cyber & Digital sectors. Its portfolio of innovative products and services addresses several major challenges: sovereignty, security, sustainability and inclusion.
The Group invests more than €4 billion per year in Research & Development in key areas, particularly for critical environments, such as Artificial Intelligence, cybersecurity, quantum and cloud technologies.
Thales has more than 83,000 employees in 68 countries. In 2024, the Group generated sales of €20.6 billion.
Strategy: Re-emerging momentum within a base. 
Long
Legrand, an “AI” stock that is still cheap?The Legrand stock, a French company listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, is following a strong long-term bullish trend in the equity markets. The company is a pure specialist in building electrical infrastructure and has made a massive strategic shift in recent years toward AI data centers and digital infrastructure in general.
This transformation has enabled Legrand to reach record operating margins and achieve excellent current and future profitability.
So one question arises: is it still time to buy Legrand shares?
Legrand is currently benefiting from an extremely favorable structural trend: the explosion of electricity demand linked to the global digital transformation. The development of generative artificial intelligence is driving spectacular growth in investments in data centers, which require increasingly efficient, secure, and resilient electrical infrastructures.
The French group is particularly well positioned in this market thanks to its low-voltage electrical distribution solutions, cabling systems, equipment for computer rooms, and smart building management solutions. This exposure to data centers is gradually bringing Legrand closer to the artificial intelligence theme, even though the company does not directly manufacture AI chips or software.
The quality of Legrand’s business model is also based on strong innovation capabilities, a portfolio of globally recognized brands, and a targeted acquisition strategy that regularly expands its technological offering.
The table below compares LEGRAND shares with its European competitors based on the forward P/E valuation criterion. LEGRAND stock is the cheapest of all and has strong earnings growth prospects thanks to AI data centers.
Regarding valuation, Legrand remains cheaper than several major European competitors exposed to the same electrification and digitalization trends. With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 20 times expected earnings, the stock can still be considered inexpensive within its sector.
The chart below displays weekly Japanese candlesticks for LEGRAND shares together with stock market valuation ratios: forward P/E, P/E ratio, and Price-to-Sales. A forward P/E of 20 can be considered reasonable in the AI sector (here, data centers).
With a strategic position at the heart of the energy and digital revolution, Legrand could therefore remain one of the most attractive European companies to indirectly benefit from the development of artificial intelligence.
The chart below represents the same data as the previous chart but adds the Ichimoku system. You can observe that the weekly Ichimoku cloud is acting as support.
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MC - Support in Focus Within the Broader Downtrend!MC (LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE) is the world's largest luxury goods company, with a portfolio of globally recognized brands across fashion, jewelry, cosmetics, wines, and spirits. The stock is widely followed as a benchmark for the global luxury sector.
From a technical perspective, MC remains overall bearish, continuing to trade inside the red descending channel. Price is now testing a major support area that has produced multiple bullish reactions in recent months, making it an important technical region to monitor. At the same time, a developing bullish divergence is adding more confluence to the bullish scenario and may serve as an early indication that bearish momentum is beginning to weaken.
⭕As long as this support area continues to hold, we can start looking for buy setups on lower timeframes, targeting a medium-term recovery toward the upper boundary of the descending channel as a corrective move within the broader bearish trend.
⭕From a longer-term perspective, buyers would need to break above both the red descending channel and the last major high, highlighted by the green trigger area, to provide the first major indication that momentum is shifting from bearish to bullish.
The reaction around this support zone may reveal whether buyers can develop another corrective rally, or if sellers have other plans.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice.
Rayan Nasser
#MC #LVMH #Stocks #Luxury #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Investing #MarketStructure 
Long
Rémy Cointreau: Cognac Is Waking Up AgainRémy Cointreau ( EURONEXT:RCO ) has suffered a brutal valuation reset.
After peaking above €200 in 2021, the stock collapsed toward €40 before beginning to stabilize around €48–50.
My Master Buy Scanner V2 now gives the technical setup a full 3/3 score—but the final decision remains GROWTH WATCH rather than BUY.
That distinction is important.
Momentum is improving and the latest sales report contains encouraging signs. However, margins, earnings and cash generation remain far below their previous levels.
THE SCANNER’S MESSAGE
The two-month setup currently shows:
• Technical score: 3/3
• Action: WATCH
• Decision: GROWTH WATCH
• Buy state: NO EVENT
• Entry quality: GOOD — 75%
• Setup maturity: CONFIRM
• Model position size: NONE — 0%
• Combined technical reading: GREEN — 7/10
• Technical cycle: ACTIVE
The momentum cross has appeared, the bands are synchronized and the recovery has been confirmed.
But there is still no formal buy event.
The scanner is effectively saying:
“The recovery may be starting—but the growth thesis needs more evidence.”
THE LATEST RESULTS ARE ENCOURAGING
Rémy Cointreau’s first-quarter 2026–27 sales reached €223.2 million:
• Organic sales growth: +1.3%
• Reported sales growth: +1.1%
• Cognac organic growth: +7.7%
• Liqueurs & Spirits organic growth: -6.6%
Cognac delivered the most important improvement.
Sales grew strongly across Asia outside China, while the United States showed solid growth and a sequential improvement in consumer sell-through. China remained difficult, but the decline was limited and in line with management’s expectations.
Rémy Martin also recorded more than 12% sales growth during China’s 6.18 e-commerce festival.
The weaker Liqueurs & Spirits performance was partly attributed to shipment timing. Management said underlying consumption trends remained positive across Cointreau, The Botanist, Bruichladdich and Mount Gay. (news.remy-cointreau.com)
This is not yet a complete recovery—but it is considerably better than another quarter of broad-based contraction.
WHY THE SCANNER STILL DISTRUSTS GROWTH
The scanner’s growth outlook remains RED:
• Growth score: 0.5/4 — 13%
• Expected profit growth: 6.58%
• Estimate trend: -32.33%
• Three-year profit growth: -35.89%
• Three-year sales growth: -15.47%
These figures are backward-looking and therefore do not fully reflect the latest Cognac rebound.
However, they accurately show the damage inflicted during the downturn.
For the full 2025–26 financial year:
• Sales: €935.3 million
• Organic sales growth: +0.2%
• Reported sales decline: -5.0%
• Current operating profit: €165.4 million, down 23.8%
• Operating margin: 17.7%, down from 22.0%
• Net profit: €78.7 million, down 35.1%
• EPS: €1.51, down 36%
Gross margin fell from 70.6% to 65.8%, affected by tariffs, unfavorable price mix, production costs and currency movements. (news.remy-cointreau.com)
One positive quarter cannot erase that deterioration.
VALUATION IS NOT YET OBVIOUSLY CHEAP
The scanner rates valuation and debt ORANGE:
• Value score: 3.5/7
• Cash yield: 2.09%
• Business-price multiple: 13.52x
• Cash-flow multiple: 65.12x
• Earnings multiple: 32.33x
The share price is dramatically below its former peak, but that does not automatically make the stock inexpensive.
At approximately €48–50, Rémy Cointreau still trades at more than 30 times the scanner’s current earnings figure. Free cash flow was only €8 million in 2025–26, despite better working-capital management.
Net debt reached €690.4 million, while net debt to EBITDA increased from 2.40x to 3.22x.
The balance sheet is manageable, but it reduces flexibility. Management intends to keep leverage below 3.5x during 2026–27.
The dividend was also reduced from €1.50 to €0.75 per share. At the current share price, that represents a yield of only around 1.5%—not enough to compensate investors if the recovery fails.
THE TURNAROUND PLAN
Management has launched RC Forward, a transformation programme targeting approximately €100 million of value creation by 2028–29.
Its priorities include:
• Rebuilding momentum in the United States and China
• Accelerating non-Cognac brands
• Expanding emerging-market sales
• Recovering Travel Retail
• Reducing overhead costs
• Protecting brand investment
• Improving operational efficiency and cash generation
The group expects a return to sustainable organic sales growth in 2026–27 and a slight organic improvement in operating margin.
However, customs duties are expected to cost approximately €20 million, while currency movements could reduce annual sales by around €15 million and operating profit by €5–8 million.
The recovery must therefore overcome meaningful external pressure.
THE TECHNICAL SETUP
The chart is attempting to establish a long-term bottom after a decline of roughly 75% from its peak.
Key levels I am watching:
• €43–46: immediate support and potential accumulation zone
• €38–40: major structural support
• €50–55: first confirmation zone
• €60–65: next important resistance
• €75–80: major long-term recovery level
The current rebound above €48 is constructive, but the €50–55 area remains the first real test.
A confirmed close above €55 followed by a successful retest would indicate that the market is beginning to price in a genuine earnings recovery.
A failure below €43 would weaken the setup. A sustained loss of €38–40 would suggest that the bottoming process has failed.
THE BULL CASE
• Cognac returned to organic growth
• US consumption trends are improving
• Rémy Martin continues gaining traction in Asia
• China’s decline is becoming more controlled
• Strong portfolio of premium global brands
• Technical recovery confirmed from oversold levels
• RC Forward could improve costs and cash generation
• Expectations are far lower than at the 2021 peak
THE BEAR CASE
• Profit and EPS remain sharply below previous levels
• Margins have contracted significantly
• Free cash flow remains weak
• Leverage has increased
• Liqueurs & Spirits sales declined in Q1
• China and European demand remain uncertain
• Tariffs and currency movements create additional pressure
• Valuation is not especially low relative to current earnings
• There is still no formal scanner buy event
MY CURRENT FRAMEWORK
I would treat Rémy Cointreau as an improving recovery watch—not yet as a confirmed growth investment.
My framework would be:
• Avoid chasing the first rebound
• Watch whether €43–46 holds on a pullback
• Consider a starter only after a confirmed break above €50–55
• Increase conviction if Cognac growth continues and margins stabilize
• Monitor leverage and free-cash-flow recovery
• Reassess the technical thesis below €38–40
The latest quarter suggests that the business may finally be turning.
But for the scanner to move from GROWTH WATCH to BUY, Rémy Cointreau must prove that stronger Cognac sales can translate into improving earnings, margins and cash flow.
TRY THE SCANNER
Master Buy Scanner V2 distinguishes between a potential growth recovery and a fully confirmed investment setup.
Add it to your TradingView charts here:
THE QUESTION
At approximately €50, what matters most?
A — Cognac’s return to growth
B — Confirmation above €55
C — Margin and cash-flow recovery
D — Avoid because the valuation remains too high
Comment A, B, C or D—and share your Rémy Cointreau thesis.
This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk according to your investment horizon.
Long
Wolters Kluwer: AI Fears Crushed Valuation. BUY Signal Has FiredWolters Kluwer ( EURONEXT:WKL ) has delivered remarkably consistent revenue, margin, earnings and cash-flow growth for years.
Yet its shares have collapsed by approximately 60% from their peak as investors question whether generative AI will strengthen its professional-information platforms—or eventually replace them.
The monthly chart remains cautious, but the faster three-week timeframe has now generated a full 3/3 BUY signal.
That multi-timeframe distinction is central to this setup.
THE THREE-WEEK BUY SIGNAL
Master Buy Scanner V2 currently shows:
• Overall signal: BUY — 3/3
• Signal timeframe: 3W → 1M/3W
• Timeframe confidence: 3W FALLBACK
• Action: BUY / BUILD
• Decision: INVEST
• Buy state: QUALITY ACTIVE
• Entry quality: EXCELLENT — 90%
• Setup maturity: QUALITY
• Model position size: FULL — 100%
• Technical cycle: FIRED
• Bars since BUY: 1
• Combined signal: GREEN — 8/10
The advanced layer is even stronger:
• Advanced score: 14/14 — 100%
• Lifecycle: CONFIRM
• Conviction: A — 92%
• Recovery: CONFIRMED
• False-bottom test: OK
• Value-trap test: OK
• Relative strength: +15.45% — OK
• Volume: ACCUMULATION
• Failure warning: NO
This is materially different from the monthly view, which still says WAIT because its slower oscillator has not completed a bullish cross.
That is not necessarily a contradiction.
The three-week signal is identifying an earlier entry, while the monthly timeframe still requires more evidence before confirming a full long-term trend reversal.
AN EXCEPTIONAL BUSINESS
Wolters Kluwer provides information, software and workflow solutions to healthcare, legal, tax, accounting and compliance professionals.
These are critical areas where accuracy, regulatory expertise and trusted data matter. Replacing an established system can create operational, legal and financial risk for customers.
The scanner gives business quality a perfect score:
• Quality score: 3/3 — 100%
• Return on capital: 25.65%
• Margin trend: positive
• Profitability and cash generation: GREEN
The latest operating performance also remains strong.
During Q1 2026:
• Revenue grew 5% organically
• Recurring revenue grew 7% organically
• Recurring products represented 85% of total revenue
• Cloud software revenue grew 14% organically
• Adjusted operating profit increased 11% at constant currencies
• Adjusted free cash flow increased 15% at constant currencies
Those are not the results of a company currently experiencing fundamental collapse.
Management also reiterated its 2026 outlook:
• Adjusted operating margin: approximately 28%
• Adjusted free cash flow: €1.30–1.35 billion
• Return on invested capital: 18–19%
• Adjusted EPS growth: high single digits at constant currencies
THE AI DEBATE
The bear case is easy to understand.
General-purpose AI agents are becoming capable of automating legal research, tax preparation, compliance analysis and clinical decision support.
If customers can obtain comparable answers without paying for specialized platforms, Wolters Kluwer could eventually face:
• Slower subscription growth
• Pricing pressure
• Lower switching costs
• Higher development spending
• Margin compression
However, Wolters Kluwer is not simply defending a declining publishing model.
Approximately 70% of its digital revenue already comes from AI-powered solutions. The company is increasing product-development spending to 12–13% of revenue and embedding generative and agentic AI across its platforms.
More than half of its US enterprise healthcare customers had signed up to adopt UpToDate Expert AI by the end of April. Its CCH Axcess agentic AI modules are also seeing early adoption among accounting firms.
The real question is therefore:
Does AI commoditize Wolters Kluwer’s information—or make its trusted data, professional expertise and embedded workflows even more valuable?
THE VALUATION RESET
The scanner now rates valuation and debt GREEN:
• Valuation score: 6.5/7 — 93%
• Cash yield: approximately 9.9%
• Earnings multiple: approximately 12.8x
• Current profit per share: €5.64
• Debt-to-equity: 1.66 — ORANGE
A recurring-revenue company with rising margins, strong free cash flow and a return on capital above 25% would historically command a significantly higher multiple.
However, the market is no longer valuing WKL on its historical execution. It is pricing uncertainty about the durability of its moat.
The scanner reflects this tension:
• Three-year profit growth: 12.01% — GREEN
• Three-year sales growth: 3.95% — ORANGE
• Future profit growth: -6.63% — RED
The historical business remains exceptional. Future expectations have been dramatically reset.
THE TECHNICAL SETUP
After falling from approximately €180, WKL tested the €55–60 area before rebounding toward €72.
The three-week oscillator has now completed a bullish turn from deeply oversold territory. The WT cross is confirmed, the bands are synchronized and accumulation volume is present.
Key levels I am watching:
• €65–66: immediate pivot and pullback zone
• €55–60: major structural support and invalidation area
• €72–75: first resistance and breakout test
• €85–90: stronger recovery confirmation
• €100–110: major long-term resistance
A sustained three-week close above €72–75 would reinforce the BUY signal.
A constructive pullback that holds €65 could also provide a more favorable entry than chasing the first rebound.
The slower monthly chart would likely need additional recovery before generating its own BUY signal.
THE BULL CASE
• Fresh 3/3 BUY signal on the three-week timeframe
• Entry quality rated EXCELLENT at 90%
• Advanced confirmation score of 14/14
• 85% recurring revenue
• 14% organic cloud growth
• 25.65% scanner return on capital
• Rising operating margins
• Strong free-cash-flow generation
• Trusted proprietary professional content
• Early adoption of Wolters Kluwer’s own AI products
• Major valuation reset
THE BEAR CASE
• The monthly timeframe has not confirmed the reversal
• AI agents may commoditize some professional information
• Customers could develop competing internal tools
• Product-development spending is increasing
• Future-profit expectations remain negative
• Debt is higher than for several previous scanner setups
• The first rebound has already been sharp
• Losing €55–60 would invalidate the emerging base
MY CURRENT FRAMEWORK
I would treat WKL as a confirmed three-week BUY—but still distinguish it from a confirmed monthly reversal.
My approach would be:
• Consider an initial position in the €65–72 area
• Prefer a controlled pullback over chasing a vertical rebound
• Add if €65 becomes established support
• Increase conviction after a confirmed close above €75
• Look for the monthly signal to confirm above €85–90
• Reassess the thesis below €55–60
• Monitor the August 5 half-year results closely
The scanner’s 100% model position size reflects the strength of the detected setup. It should not automatically be interpreted as a recommendation to deploy an entire personal position immediately, particularly before earnings.
TRY THE SCANNER
This WKL example shows why Master Buy Scanner V2 uses multiple timeframes.
The monthly chart still says WAIT, but the three-week timing layer has already identified a high-quality BUY with improving momentum, accumulation and strong fundamental support.
Add the indicator to your TradingView charts here:
Run it across your watchlist and share the next ticker you want analyzed.
THE QUESTION
How would you approach Wolters Kluwer?
A — Start building after the three-week BUY signal
B — Wait for a pullback toward €65
C — Wait for monthly confirmation above €75–90
D — Avoid because AI could permanently weaken the moat
Comment A, B, C or D—and share your WKL thesis.
This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk according to your investment horizon.
Long
Long
LVMH: Arnault seeks stability as luxury faces challengesBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Bernard Arnault, Chairman and CEO of LVMH, has rejected speculation about an alleged succession battle among his five children over control of the world’s largest luxury conglomerate.
The message aims to reinforce the group’s stability at a time when investors are focusing their attention on business performance. The main challenge for LVMH will be to preserve the value of its brands, protect its margins and restore growth in an environment of weaker luxury consumption momentum.
A model based on unique brands
LVMH’s success is based on a portfolio of brands with strong global positioning. Louis Vuitton remains one of the group’s main growth drivers, alongside brands such as Christian Dior, Tiffany & Co., Bulgari, Celine, Loewe and Fendi.
Arnault’s strategy has consisted of acquiring historic brands and providing them with global resources while preserving their identity. Control over distribution, investment in design and product exclusivity have allowed the group to maintain strong pricing power. However, the sector is undergoing a normalisation phase after the strong growth experienced following the pandemic. The slowdown in Chinese consumption and greater buyer caution have reduced the pace of expansion, particularly in some fashion categories.
Fundamental analysis: business quality in an adjustment phase
LVMH maintains one of the strongest competitive positions in the luxury sector. The group closed 2025 with revenues close to €80 billion and a recurring operating margin of around 25%, reflecting the strength of its brands and its pricing power.
The Fashion & Leather Goods division, driven by Louis Vuitton and Dior, continues to be the main profit engine, although it is also the most exposed to the slowdown in consumption, particularly in China.
The group maintains a solid financial structure, with strong cash generation and the ability to continue investing in its brands. However, the market has lowered its expectations after several years of strong growth and is demanding new signs of recovery in sales and margins.
The main catalysts will be the evolution of Asian consumption, the recovery of Louis Vuitton and Dior, and the group’s ability to maintain the distinctive value of its brands.
Technical analysis: bearish trend and consolidation
LVMH shares remain in a long-term bearish trend following the formation of a head-and-shoulders pattern between July 2022 and July 2024.
The share price reached a high of €904.6 per share in 2023, subsequently beginning a correction with lower highs at €886.4, €762.7 and €654.3, the latter recorded in January.
The stock found support around the €436.55 area, a level tested in June 2025 and again in May 2026. Since then, the share price has entered a sideways phase, trading around €478.80.
The technical structure remains negative. The moving average crossover confirms the bearish trend, while the recent expansion between them reflects the persistence of selling pressure.
The Point of Control (POC) is located around €616.8, a level that could act as a significant resistance zone in a potential recovery. The MACD shows gradual improvement, although it remains in negative territory.
The RSI stands at 45.38%, within a neutral zone with still-weak momentum, although far from oversold levels.
LVMH continues to hold value
LVMH continues to maintain one of the most valuable collections of brands in the world, but the market requires new growth signals before confirming a sustained recovery.
The family succession will remain relevant in the long term, although the share price performance will depend mainly on the group’s operational ability to restore growth, maintain margins and preserve the exclusivity that supports the value of its brands.
*******************************************************************************************
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Interparfums: Did the Market Stop Paying for Perfection?TITLE:
Interparfums: The Market Stopped Paying for Perfection—My Scanner Just Turned BUY
DESCRIPTION:
Interparfums ( AMEX:ITP ) was once priced like an unstoppable luxury-growth story. Since peaking above €50, the shares have fallen toward €25 as the fragrance market slowed, currencies turned unfavorable and several important brands lost momentum.
Yet the underlying business remains profitable—and my Master Buy Scanner V2 has now generated a fresh 3/3 BUY signal.
This is not a bet on an immediate return to rapid growth. It is a second-entry setup built on business quality, a normalized valuation and early technical recovery.
THE SIGNAL
The monthly scanner currently shows:
• Overall signal: BUY — 3/3
• Action: ADD / SECOND ENTRY
• Decision: INVEST
• Buy state: QUALITY ACTIVE
• Entry quality: EXCELLENT — 90%
• Setup maturity: QUALITY
• Technical cycle: FIRED
• Bars since BUY: 1
• Advanced score: 13/14 — 93%
The oscillator is also turning upward from a deeply oversold area. That suggests selling pressure may be exhausting, although it does not guarantee that the long-term downtrend is finished.
WHY THE BUSINESS STILL DESERVES ATTENTION
Interparfums develops and distributes fragrances for brands including Coach, Jimmy Choo, Montblanc, Lacoste, Rochas, Lanvin, Moncler and Van Cleef & Arpels.
Despite the current slowdown, the scanner still classifies business quality as GREEN:
• Quality score: 2.5/3 — 83%
• Return on capital: 15.46%
• Profitability: 17.74%
• Cash generation: 14.07%
• Margin trend: -0.76% — ORANGE
The latest operating data also show that the portfolio is not uniformly weak.
During the first half of 2026:
• Coach sales rose 3%, or 9.6% at constant exchange rates
• Jimmy Choo rose 1%, or 6.5% at constant exchange rates
• Montblanc declined 1%, but grew 3.4% at constant exchange rates
• The US subsidiary increased sales by 8% in dollars
• Interparfums continued gaining US market share
• Chinese sales increased strongly, while Asian activity rebounded in Q2
This resilience matters. It suggests that part of the reported decline comes from currencies, geographic disruption and uneven launch schedules—not simply collapsing demand for every brand.
THE SLOWDOWN IS REAL
First-half revenue still fell to €414.3 million:
• Down 7.3% at current exchange rates
• Down 3.7% at constant exchange rates
The weakest areas included:
• Lacoste: -21%
• Rochas: -12%
• Lanvin: -26%
• Western Europe: -17%
• Eastern Europe: -20%
• Middle East: -32%
Management now expects full-year sales between €850 million and €870 million, representing a moderate decline of approximately 3% at constant exchange rates.
This is why the scanner’s future-profit-growth reading remains RED at -2.05%, even though its three-year sales and profit-growth measures remain positive.
Interparfums is still a quality business—but it is currently between growth cycles.
THE VALUATION RESET
The clearest change is valuation.
The scanner now gives Interparfums a perfect 7/7 valuation and debt score:
• Cash yield: 5.83%
• Business-price multiple: 9.75x
• Cash-flow multiple: 15.53x
• Earnings multiple: 16.02x
• Debt-to-equity: 0.18
Those are far more reasonable levels than the premium valuation investors were willing to pay during the fragrance boom.
Interparfums also ended 2025 with a 19.5% operating margin and €63 million of net cash. Management expects the first-half 2026 operating margin to remain between 19% and 20% despite weaker sales.
In other words, revenue has slowed—but profitability has not collapsed.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL CATALYST
Management is preparing approximately 20 major initiatives across 2027 and 2028.
These include new franchises or important launches for Coach, Montblanc, Lacoste, Jimmy Choo and other portfolio brands.
The investment case therefore depends on whether Interparfums can navigate the current soft period without sacrificing margins—and then convert that launch pipeline into renewed organic growth.
The September 9 first-half results should provide an important update on profitability, cash flow and the durability of management’s guidance.
THE TECHNICAL SETUP
The shares are attempting to establish a base after falling from above €50 toward €21–22.
Key levels I am watching:
• €24–25: immediate pivot and second-entry zone
• €21–22: major structural support
• €27–28: first recovery confirmation
• €30–32: more meaningful trend improvement
• €34–36: major resistance from the previous breakdown
The technical cycle has fired, volume shows accumulation and the scanner marks recovery as CONFIRMED.
However, relative strength remains negative. A move above €27–28 would provide stronger evidence that the rebound is becoming a genuine trend reversal rather than another temporary bounce.
THE BULL CASE
• High-margin fragrance platform
• Strong portfolio of international brands
• 15.46% return on capital
• Excellent 7/7 valuation score
• Very low debt-to-equity
• Continued growth from Coach and Jimmy Choo
• US market-share gains
• Large 2027–2028 launch pipeline
• Technical recovery from deeply oversold conditions
THE BEAR CASE
• First-half sales are still declining
• Lacoste and Lanvin remain weak
• European and Middle Eastern demand is soft
• Currency movements are hurting reported results
• Near-term profit growth remains negative
• Relative strength has not recovered
• The licensing model depends on maintaining valuable brand relationships
• A break below €21–22 would seriously weaken the base
MY CURRENT FRAMEWORK
I would treat Interparfums as a quality second-entry setup—not as a confirmed momentum trade.
My framework would be:
• Consider exposure around the €24–25 pivot
• Keep initial sizing measured while relative strength remains weak
• Add conviction above €27–28
• Watch September’s results for margin and cash-flow confirmation
• Reassess the technical thesis below €21–22
The scanner displays a model position size of 100%, but that should be interpreted within each investor’s own portfolio construction and risk limits.
TRY THE SCANNER
Master Buy Scanner V2 separates technical timing, business quality, valuation, debt and growth instead of producing an unexplained BUY label.
Add it to your TradingView charts here:
Run it across your watchlist and share the next ticker you want analyzed.
THE QUESTION
How would you approach Interparfums near €25?
A — Begin or add to a position
B — Wait for a breakout above €28
C — Wait for the September results
D — Avoid until revenue growth returns
Comment A, B, C or D—and share your Interparfums thesis.
This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk according to your investment horizon.
Long
Buy Candidate: Safran (SAF)Idea sourced via technical screener.
Safran SA engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of aircraft, defense, and communication equipment and technologies. It operates through the following segments: Aerospace Propulsion, Aircraft Equipment, Defense, and Aerosystems, Aircraft Interiors. The Aerospace Propulsion segment designs, develops, produces, and markets propulsion and mechanical power transmission systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, civil and military helicopters, and drones. The Aircraft Equipment, Defense, and Aerosystems segment covers the full life cycle of systems and equipment for civil and military aircraft and helicopters; and is involved in landing gear and brakes, nacelles and reversers, avionics, security systems, onboard computers, and fuel systems. The Aircraft Interiors segment engages in the manufacture of Cabin interiors for regional, medium-haul, long-haul, business and military aircraft. The Aircraft Interiors segment is composed of aircraft seats for passengers and crew, cabin equipment, overhead bins, class dividers, passenger service units, cabin interior solutions, chilling systems, galleys, electrical inserts and trolleys, and cargo equipment. The company was founded on August 16, 1924 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Additional info: Record financial performance and upgraded outlook driven by strong aftermarket and defense 
Long
Dassault Systèmes Down 65%: AI Opportunity or Broken Compounder?Dassault Systèmes ( EURONEXT:DSY ) has collapsed from approximately €56 to €19—erasing years of gains and returning to levels last seen before the pandemic.
Now, my Master Buy Scanner V2 has detected a new long-term opportunity:
• Signal: BUY — 3/3
• Action: BUY / BUILD
• Entry quality: EXCELLENT — 90%
• Setup maturity: CONFIRM
• Technical score: GREEN — 7/10
• Decision: INVEST
• Buy state: WAIT CLOSE
That final line matters: the monthly signal is promising, but it is not fully confirmed until the candle closes.
WHY DSY CAUGHT MY ATTENTION
This is not simply a technical bounce. The scanner finds strength across all three fundamental pillars:
• Business quality: 2.5/3 — GREEN
• Valuation and debt: 7/7 — GREEN
• Growth outlook: 3/4 — GREEN
• Advanced conviction: B+ — 80%
DSY remains a strategically important software company through CATIA, SOLIDWORKS, 3DEXPERIENCE and Medidata. Its virtual-twin technology is deeply embedded within aerospace, automotive, manufacturing and life sciences workflows.
THE LATEST RESULTS
Q2 2026 showed that the underlying business is still progressing:
• Revenue increased 4%
• Subscription revenue grew 8%
• 3DEXPERIENCE and cloud software revenue both grew 14%
• Annual Run Rate increased 6%
• Non-IFRS EPS rose 8%
• First-half operating cash flow increased 11%
Management also confirmed its full-year objectives. The business is not collapsing—the market is questioning how quickly it can return to stronger growth.
VALUATION HAS RESET
The scanner currently shows:
• Cash yield: 5.88%
• Business-price multiple: 10.17x
• Cash-flow multiple: 14.52x
• Earnings multiple: 20.43x
• Debt-to-equity: 0.36
DSY is no longer priced like an untouchable premium compounder. The valuation now leaves considerably more room for execution mistakes.
THE RISKS
The bear case remains credible:
• European automotive demand is weak
• Medidata and life sciences are undergoing a transition
• Revenue growth remains modest for a software company
• The subscription transition can create short-term pressure
• AI may strengthen DSY’s platform—but investors still need evidence of monetization
• The monthly BUY signal has not yet closed
TECHNICAL LEVELS
• €18–19: immediate accumulation zone
• €16.50–17: major structural support
• €20.50–22: first confirmation area
• €24–25: important resistance
• €28–30: stronger long-term reversal signal
My approach would be to start gradually only after the monthly signal confirms, then add if DSY recovers above €22 and €25.
TRY THE SCANNER
Master Buy Scanner V2 combines technical timing, quality, valuation, growth and false-bottom protection instead of producing an unexplained BUY label.
Try it on your own TradingView charts:
THE QUESTION
What would you do with DSY around €19?
A — Start accumulating before the monthly close
B — Wait for confirmation above €22
C — Avoid until revenue growth accelerates
Comment A, B or C—and share the next ticker you want me to scan.
This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk.
Long
Groupe SEB Surges 16% — Turnaround Confirmed or Relief Rally?Groupe SEB ( CBOE:SK ) has collapsed from around €160 to below €45 as profitability, cash flow and growth weakened.
Following encouraging half-year results, the stock has rebounded to approximately €53—and my Master Buy Scanner V2 now shows a confirmed 3/3 BUY.
THE SIGNAL
• Overall signal: BUY — 3/3
• Action: ADD / SECOND ENTRY
• Decision: INVEST
• Buy state: SETUP READY
• Entry quality: EXCELLENT — 90%
• Setup maturity: CONFIRM
• Model position size: NORMAL — 50%
• Technical cycle: FIRED
• Bars since BUY: 2
• Combined technical reading: GREEN — 7/10
• Bands synchronized: YES
Unlike an early speculative signal, the technical indicators are synchronized. However, after a 16% monthly rebound, I would avoid blindly chasing the move.
WHY SEB CAUGHT MY ATTENTION
Groupe SEB owns a powerful portfolio of household and professional brands:
• Tefal
• Moulinex
• Rowenta
• Krups
• WMF
• All-Clad
• Supor
The company remains the global leader in small household equipment, but 2025 was difficult: organic sales barely grew, profitability declined and free cash flow weakened.
Management responded by launching the Rebound plan, targeting approximately €200 million of recurring annual savings by the end of 2027.
THE RECOVERY IS STARTING
First-half 2026 results showed measurable progress:
• Sales: €3.74 billion
• Organic growth: 1.7%
• Consumer growth: 2.3%
• Operating Result from Activity: €172 million, up 44%
• Operating margin: 4.6%, up from 3.2%
• Free cash flow: €53 million, versus -€213 million
• Structure costs reduced by approximately €25 million
North America grew 9.5% organically, including 15% growth during Q2, while China returned to slight growth.
However, the Professional division declined 2.8%, reflecting cautious investment by food-service customers.
THE ACCOUNTING WARNING
Reported net profit attributable to SEB was a loss of €124 million.
This was mainly caused by €178 million of exceptional charges related to the Rebound restructuring.
Excluding those charges, adjusted net profit was €41 million, compared with only €1 million one year earlier.
The operational recovery therefore appears stronger than reported earnings suggest—but the restructuring still has a genuine cash and execution cost.
VALUATION AND DEBT
The scanner shows:
• Business quality: GREEN — 67%
• Valuation and debt: ORANGE — 57%
• Business-price multiple: 6.28x — GREEN
• Earnings multiple: 24.52x — ORANGE
• Cash yield: 0.76% — RED
• Cash-flow multiple: 229x — RED
• Debt-to-equity: 0.78 — GREEN
• Growth outlook: RED
The weak cash-flow valuation reflects the poor recent cash-generation cycle. H1 improvement is encouraging, but one positive period does not yet prove normalization.
Official net financial debt stood at €2.52 billion, representing 2.8x adjusted EBITDA. Management aims to return leverage toward 2x by 2027.
The €2.80 annual dividend represents a yield of approximately 5.2% at the current price—but its long-term sustainability depends on cash flow continuing to recover.
THE MAIN RISKS
• Growth outlook remains RED
• Professional sales are declining
• Reported H1 earnings were negative
• Debt and financial costs remain meaningful
• Consumer demand and retailer inventories are uncertain
• Currency movements can materially affect results
• Part of the margin improvement came from tariff refunds and favorable currencies
• The Rebound plan still carries execution risk
THE TECHNICAL SETUP
Key areas I am watching:
• €50–52: immediate support
• €45–47: secondary accumulation zone
• €41–43: major structural support
• €57–60: first resistance
• €65–70: important confirmation zone
• €75–80: major recovery target
The technical setup is confirmed, but the stock is already testing its first resistance after a powerful monthly move.
I would consider partial exposure while €50 holds, then add after a convincing close above €57–60. Losing €45 would materially weaken the recovery thesis.
TRY THE SCANNER
SEB shows why a BUY signal needs context.
The technical setup is strong and business quality is positive—but valuation is mixed, cash generation remains weak and the growth outlook is RED.
Master Buy Scanner V2 combines these elements and distinguishes between QUALITY BUY, VALUE BUY, GROWTH WATCH, TACTICAL and NO BUY setups.
Add it to your TradingView charts here:
THE QUESTION
How would you approach Groupe SEB around €53?
A — Buy because the Rebound plan is already improving margins
B — Wait for confirmation above €57–60
C — Avoid because cash flow, debt and growth remain weak
Comment A, B or C—and share your SEB thesis.
This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk.
Long
Arkema at €55: Deep Value bef Earnings or a Chemical Value Trap?Arkema ( EURONEXT:AKE ) is trading near its lowest level since the pandemic, almost 60% below its 2022 peak.
The stock appears inexpensive, offers an indicated dividend yield of approximately 6.5% and is showing several positive monthly technical signals.
My Master Buy Scanner V2 even gives the technical setup a full 3/3 score and an 80% entry-quality rating.
Yet its final verdict is unambiguous:
NO BUY.
That apparent contradiction is exactly what makes Arkema interesting.
The technical conditions may be improving, but the scanner has not yet detected the fundamental recovery required to justify a position.
THE CURRENT SIGNAL
The monthly scanner shows:
• Overall verdict: NO BUY
• Technical score: 3/3
• Action: WAIT
• Decision: WAIT
• Buy state: NO EVENT
• Entry quality: EXCELLENT — 80%
• Setup maturity: CONFIRM
• Model position size: NONE — 0%
• Combined technical reading: GREEN — 8/10
• Bands synchronized: YES
• Technical cycle: ACTIVE
• Bars since last BUY: 206
Technically, many of the ingredients are present:
• Recent momentum turn
• Positive WaveTrend cross
• Green primary band
• Synchronized signals
• Attractive position on the long-term chart
However, there is still no formal BUY event.
The previous monthly BUY signal occurred during the 2009 crisis—206 bars ago. The current setup is improving, but the scanner refuses to anticipate a recovery that has not yet been confirmed.
WHY THE SCANNER IS BLOCKING THE TRADE
Master Buy Scanner V2 separates each opportunity into several layers:
• Technical timing
• Business quality
• Valuation and debt
• Growth outlook
• Recovery confirmation
• False-bottom and value-trap checks
For Arkema, the picture is divided:
• Technical setup: STRONG
• Entry quality: ATTRACTIVE
• Valuation: PARTLY ATTRACTIVE
• Business quality: WEAK
• Growth outlook: WEAK
• Recovery: NOT CONFIRMED
This is why the scanner recommends waiting despite the 3/3 technical score.
A cheap stock with positive momentum can still become cheaper if earnings and margins continue to deteriorate.
THE LATEST FUNDAMENTALS
Arkema’s first-quarter results remained under pressure:
• Sales: €2.182 billion, down 8.4%
• Volumes: down 0.2%
• Prices: down 3.0%
• Currency impact: negative 5.1%
• EBITDA: €283 million, down 14.0%
• EBITDA margin: 13.0%, down from 13.8%
• Recurring operating income: €118 million, down 26.3%
• Net income: €27 million, down 44.7%
• Adjusted net income: €65 million, down 34.4%
• Adjusted EPS: €0.86, down from €1.31
The business is not collapsing, but earnings are declining much faster than revenue.
That operating leverage works in both directions. If volumes and prices recover, profits could rebound sharply—but if weak conditions persist, margins may remain under pressure.
THE BUSINESS-QUALITY WARNING
The scanner rates Arkema’s current business quality RED:
• Quality score: 1/3 — 33%
• Return on capital: 0.36% — ORANGE
• Margin trend: -3.13% — RED
• Profitability: WEAK
• Cash generation: POSITIVE BUT LIMITED
The low return on capital and negative margin trend explain why the scanner will not classify Arkema as a QUALITY BUY.
Arkema has spent years transforming itself from a traditional chemical producer into a specialty-materials company.
Approximately 85% of 2025 sales came from Specialty Materials:
• Adhesive Solutions
• Advanced Materials
• Coating Solutions
However, the current financial performance still behaves like that of a highly cyclical chemicals group.
The strategic transformation is credible—but the market is waiting for the improved portfolio to produce more resilient margins and returns.
THE POSITIVE SIDE OF THE STORY
There are several reasons why the next recovery could be meaningful.
While overall volumes were almost flat, Arkema reported approximately 15% year-over-year volume growth in attractive markets including:
• Batteries
• Sports applications
• 3D printing
• Healthcare
• High-performance polymers
• New-generation fluorospecialties
Asia also continued to grow, while conditions in Europe and North America remained soft.
Arkema is investing in products linked to structural themes rather than purely traditional chemicals:
• PVDF materials for batteries
• Specialty polyamides
• Bio-based polymers
• Advanced adhesives
• Thermal-management and cooling materials
• Electronics and semiconductor applications
• Data-centre infrastructure
• Lightweight materials for transport
• Sustainable coatings
These businesses could eventually produce a better growth and margin profile than Arkema’s legacy portfolio.
THE GROWTH PROJECTS
Several recently completed projects are expected to contribute approximately €50 million of additional EBITDA in 2026.
They include:
• Expanded PVDF capacity for batteries
• New fluorospecialty capacity in the United States
• Increased DMDS production for renewable fuels and refining
• Tripled Rilsan Clear capacity in Singapore
• Additional high-performance polymer capacity in Asia and North America
Management expects these projects to support stronger momentum in Advanced Materials and High Performance Polymers.
Arkema also targets approximately €100 million of data-centre-related sales by 2030 through products used in:
• Building insulation and waterproofing
• Electronic-component protection
• Power cables and energy storage
• Cooling and air conditioning
• Chip thermal management
The long-term portfolio has attractive qualities. The unresolved question is how quickly these projects can compensate for weakness in traditional end markets.
THE VALUATION CASE
The valuation and debt section is GREEN, with a score of 4.5/7:
• Cash yield: 8.57%
• Business-price multiple: 6.6x
• Cash-flow multiple: 26.08x
• Earnings multiple: 103.11x
• Debt-to-equity: 0.82
• Current reported profit per share: €0.54
Arkema looks inexpensive relative to sales and enterprise value—but expensive relative to currently depressed earnings and cash flow.
This is an important distinction.
The 6.6x business-price multiple suggests that the market is pricing in substantial pessimism.
However, the earnings multiple above 100x shows that profitability has already fallen dramatically.
Arkema is only genuinely cheap if earnings recover.
Without that recovery, the low enterprise-value metrics could be misleading.
THE BALANCE SHEET
Arkema ended the first quarter with approximately €3.34 billion of net debt and hybrid bonds.
That represented around 2.8 times trailing EBITDA.
The balance sheet is manageable, but it reduces the company’s flexibility during a prolonged downturn.
Management is therefore focusing on:
• Strict working-capital management
• Controlling fixed costs
• Simplifying the organisation
• Reducing headcount by approximately 3% annually over three years
• Limiting 2026 capital expenditure to around €600 million
These measures should protect cash flow, but cost reductions alone will not create a durable recovery. Arkema ultimately needs better demand, pricing and product mix.
THE DIVIDEND
Arkema maintained its annual dividend at €3.60 per share for 2025.
At a share price of €55.35, that represents an indicated historical yield of approximately 6.5%.
The dividend has also grown considerably over the long term, from €0.70 in 2007 to €3.60.
However, the current yield should not be treated as risk-free income.
Arkema generated adjusted EPS of €4.34 in 2025, meaning the €3.60 dividend represented approximately 83% of adjusted earnings.
If profits recover, the dividend becomes more comfortable. If earnings remain depressed, the payout could become increasingly difficult to maintain without using more of the company’s cash flow.
THE GROWTH OUTLOOK REMAINS RED
The scanner currently shows:
• Growth score: 1.5/4 — 38%
• Three-year profit growth: -65.73%
• Three-year sales growth: -7.75%
• Estimate trend: NEUTRAL
• Recovery status: NO
The extraordinarily high future-profit-growth figure displayed by the scanner is largely a base effect.
When current earnings are extremely depressed, even a modest recovery can produce a very large percentage increase.
That does not automatically mean the business is entering a high-growth phase.
Investors need to distinguish between:
• Earnings recovering from an unusually low base
• A genuinely durable long-term growth trend
At present, Arkema has only demonstrated the possibility of the first.
THE JULY 30 CATALYST
Arkema will publish its first-half 2026 results on July 30.
This is the most important near-term catalyst for the setup.
I will be watching for:
• Improvement in Advanced Materials
• High Performance Polymers momentum
• Progress in Adhesive Solutions
• EBITDA margin stabilization
• Pricing actions offsetting input-cost inflation
• Better recurring cash flow
• Changes to the 2026 outlook
• Confirmation of slight EBITDA growth at constant currencies
• Any dividend or balance-sheet concerns
A strong report could create the missing recovery confirmation.
A weak report could explain why the scanner continues to show NO BUY despite the attractive chart.
THE TECHNICAL SETUP
Arkema is attempting to form a long-term base after falling from approximately €130 in 2022 to below €50 in 2026.
Key levels I am watching:
• €52–55: immediate support
• €47–50: major structural support and potential accumulation zone
• €58–60: first resistance and confirmation level
• €64–66: major breakout zone
• €72–75: secondary recovery target
• €85–90: major long-term resistance
The stock recently rebounded from below €50 to approximately €65 before falling back toward €55.
That failed breakout means the recovery is still incomplete.
A monthly close above €60 would be constructive. A move above €65–66 would provide much stronger evidence that a durable reversal is developing.
A sustained loss of €47–50 would invalidate the current bottoming structure and expose Arkema to further downside.
THE BULL CASE
• The stock trades almost 60% below its 2022 peak
• Technical entry quality is rated 80%
• The combined technical score is GREEN — 8/10
• Arkema has substantial exposure to specialty materials
• Attractive-market volumes grew approximately 15%
• Battery, sports, healthcare and 3D-printing demand remains strong
• Major projects should contribute around €50 million of additional EBITDA
• The indicated dividend yield is approximately 6.5%
• The business-price multiple appears inexpensive
• The false-bottom and value-trap checks remain positive
• A cyclical earnings recovery could produce significant operating leverage
THE BEAR CASE
• The scanner explicitly says NO BUY
• No new BUY event has been generated
• Business quality is rated RED
• Return on capital is extremely weak
• Sales, EBITDA and adjusted earnings are declining
• Margins continue to contract
• Europe and North America remain soft
• Net debt and hybrid bonds exceed €3.3 billion
• Current cash-flow and earnings multiples are expensive
• The dividend payout ratio has increased substantially
• The recovery has not been confirmed
• A weak July 30 report could send the stock back toward €47–50
MY CURRENT PLAN
I would treat Arkema as a pre-recovery watchlist idea—not as an active BUY.
My framework would be:
• Wait for the July 30 first-half results
• Avoid buying solely because the stock appears cheap
• Watch whether €52–55 continues to hold
• Consider a small position only after improving margins and cash flow
• Prefer a confirmed monthly close above €60
• Add greater conviction above €65–66
• Consider €47–50 only if a clear reversal develops
• Reassess the thesis below €47
• Monitor debt, dividend coverage and the ramp-up of growth projects
Arkema may eventually become an attractive cyclical-recovery investment.
But the scanner is demanding evidence before committing capital.
TRY THE SCANNER
Arkema demonstrates why Master Buy Scanner V2 does not generate a BUY simply because technical indicators turn green.
The scanner evaluates:
• Technical timing
• Entry quality
• Business quality
• Valuation and debt
• Growth outlook
• Recovery confirmation
• False-bottom risk
• Value-trap risk
• Model position size
AKE receives a 3/3 technical score and an 80% entry rating—but still gets a 0% position because the fundamental recovery is missing.
That distinction is designed to help investors avoid buying every apparently cheap falling stock.
Add Master Buy Scanner V2 to your TradingView charts here:
Run it across your watchlist and comment with the next ticker you want me to analyse.
THE QUESTION
What would you do with Arkema around €55 before its results?
A — Start a small position because the bad news is already priced in
B — Wait for the July 30 results and confirmation above €60
C — Avoid because weak returns and declining margins suggest a value trap
Comment A, B or C—and share your Arkema thesis below.
This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk according to your investment horizon.
ASMLASML Full Overview + Long-Term Chart Analysis (Shavyfxhub Style)
1. Origin of ASML
Founded: 1984 in the Netherlands (Veldhoven)
Originally a joint venture between Philips (Netherlands) and Advanced Semiconductor Materials International (ASMI)
Full name: ASML Holding N.V.
Became independent and publicly listed later. It is now one of the most important technology companies in the world.
2. Main Business Model
ASML is a pure-play semiconductor equipment company.
Its core business is designing, manufacturing, and selling lithography systems — the machines that print the tiny circuits on silicon wafers.
Revenue Model:
Sale of highly advanced lithography machines (EUV, DUV)
High-margin service contracts and upgrades (recurring revenue)
Spare parts and software
Extremely high barriers to entry (almost a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet / EUV technology)
3. Role in Lithography & AI Infrastructure
Lithography Leader: ASML is the only company in the world that can produce Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines.
These machines are essential for manufacturing the most advanced chips (3nm, 2nm, and below).
AI Infrastructure: Every advanced AI chip (NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC, Intel, Samsung) depends on ASML’s EUV machines. Without ASML, the current AI boom (GPUs, high-performance computing) would not be possible at scale.
Customers: TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and other leading foundries.
4. Long-Term Chart Analysis (Weekly Chart – Shavyfxhub Strategy)
Overall Structure:
ASML is in a powerful long-term ascending channel (black and red trendlines) since 2018–2019.
Clear higher highs and higher lows — strong bullish market structure.
Key Levels:
Demand Floor (Green): Major support zones around €800 – €1,000 and the current higher demand area near €1,193.
Supply Roof (Red): Upper channel resistance currently around €1,800 – €2,000+.
Current price is trading near €1,563 after a strong rally.
Long-Term Outlook (Shavyfxhub Style):
The structure remains strongly bullish.
As long as price holds above the green demand floor and the ascending channel, the uptrend is intact.
Next upside targets: Upper red channel lines (potential continuation toward €2,000 – €2,600 in a strong cycle).
A deep pullback to the green demand floor would be a high-probability buying area in the long-term structure.
Verdict: ASML shows a textbook long-term bullish structure. The company is a pure-play on AI and advanced semiconductor manufacturing, which supports the technical strength.
#ASML 
Long
No one will realize how cheap the share price is until 2027 hitsL’Oréal S.A. (Euronext Paris: OR) remains fundamentally one of the strongest companies in the global beauty industry, while its technical outlook suggests improving momentum following a healthy consolidation phase. Technical indicators show a cautiously bullish picture: the RSI (≈51) is neutral, indicating the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, the MACD has turned positive with a bullish crossover, and the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages continue to support a long-term upward trend despite recent short-term price weakness. Momentum oscillators, including the Stochastic Oscillator and ADX, indicate the stock is consolidating rather than entering a downtrend, providing a favorable setup for a medium-term recovery if buying volume strengthens. Over the past two years, L’Oréal has significantly strengthened its competitive position through strategic acquisitions, including Color Wow (professional haircare), Medik8 (premium skincare), Kering Beauté (bringing luxury brands such as Creed and future Gucci beauty rights), an increased ownership stake in Galderma to capitalize on the fast-growing aesthetics market, and the majority acquisition of Innovist to accelerate expansion in India’s rapidly growing beauty sector. These investments broaden the company’s exposure to high-growth categories while reinforcing its Beauty Tech, dermatological, luxury fragrance, and emerging-market strategies. Financially, the company continues to demonstrate exceptional health, reporting €44.05 billion in 2025 revenue, a 74.3% gross margin, 20.2% operating margin, rising free cash flow, and double-digit e-commerce growth, while first-quarter 2026 sales outpaced the global beauty market. Considering both the improving technical indicators and strong underlying fundamentals, L’Oréal appears well positioned for continued growth over the next six months. Although macroeconomic conditions may create short-term volatility, the combination of robust financial performance, disciplined acquisitions, pricing power, and sustained innovation supports a moderately bullish outlook, with future appreciation expected to be driven primarily by earnings growth and successful integration of recent acquisitions rather than speculative market expansion.
Sources
1. L’Oréal 2025 Annual Results.
2. L’Oréal First Quarter 2026 Sales Update.
3. L’Oréal Finance – Investor Relations and Financial Results.
4. L’Oréal 2025 Universal Registration Document (acquisitions and strategy). 
Long
Assassin’s Creed Could Be Ubisoft’s Comeback Weapon Ubisoft is getting another chance to prove that its biggest franchises still have value
Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced, a full remake of the 2013 pirate adventure, launched on July 9. The original title reached more than 34 million unique players, making it one of Ubisoft’s most successful releases
The strategy is clear, follow the path of Capcom and bring back proven franchises through high quality remakes.. Remakes are attractive because they come with lower development risk, established audiences, and more predictable commercial outcomes. Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot has already confirmed that multiple Assassin’s Creed remakes are in development
The timing is interesting because the market is valuing Ubisoft as if the company is heading toward a major crisis. Its enterprise value is around €1.2 billion, despite generating nearly €2 billion in average annual net bookings. Even a 3x valuation multiple would only bring Ubisoft closer to the level of struggling publisher Square Enix
The current valuation suggests investors are pricing Ubisoft like a company slowly being dismantled rather than one facing temporary execution problems. Around 14% of Ubisoft shares on Euronext Paris are short, showing that many investors are still betting against a recovery
So what is really happening inside Ubisoft?
A New Structure and Fresh Capital
In January, Ubisoft reorganized its business into five Creative Houses, moving away from its previous centralized structure. The most valuable assets ended up inside Vantage Studios, which controls major franchises including Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry, and Rainbow6
The remaining studios are focused on different parts of the portfolio, including multiplayer franchises like Ghost Recon and The Division, live service games such as The Crew, and family-oriented brands like Rayman
Tencent invested €1.2 billion into Vantage Studios in November 2025, receiving a 26% economic stake while Ubisoft maintained control and continued consolidating the studio’s results. The investment valued Vantage Studios at a €3.8 billion enterprise value before the deal
That valuation is important because it suggests Tencent sees more value in Ubisoft’s core franchises than the public market currently assigns to the entire company. However, Ubisoft’s ownership structure, the Guillemot family’s control, and Tencent’s right of first refusal make a full acquisition unlikely
The investment also strengthened Ubisoft’s balance sheet. At the end of FY26, the company had €1.3 billion in cash and adjusted net debt of only €200 million, a major improvement from the financial pressure investors feared a year earlier
However, the pressure has not disappeared. Ubisoft faces roughly €500 million in bond repayments in November, followed by another €700 million in late 2027. Those obligations could consume most of its current cash reserves before the upcoming game pipeline has time to generate meaningful free cash flow
The company’s future depends heavily on refinancing and execution
The Back Catalog Is Doing the Heavy Lifting
Ubisoft’s older games are currently carrying the business
In FY26, its back catalog generated €1.3 billion in net bookings, while new releases contributed only around €200 million. That means roughly 84% of Ubisoft’s revenue came from games released in previous years
This highlights the strength of Ubisoft’s intellectual property. Assassin’s Creed, Rainbow Six, Far Cry, and other franchises continue generating revenue long after launch. The shift toward digital gaming also helps because there is no used-game market reducing the long-term value of older titles.
The challenge is not whether Ubisoft has valuable franchises. The challenge is whether it can consistently create new hits
A Recovery Depends on the Pipeline
Ubisoft’s recent performance shows the problem:
-FY24: Net bookings reached €2.3 billion, helped by Assassin’s Creed Mirage, The Crew Motorfest, and strong catalog sales
-FY26: Net bookings dropped to €1.5 billion as the company lacked major new releases
-FY27: Management expects another decline, with net bookings estimated around €1.4 billion
Black Flag Resynced is the biggest release in the near term, but expectations are extremely low. That creates an opportunity. The game does not need to become a record breaking blockbuster to improve investor sentiment. A solid performance alone could remind the market that Ubisoft’s franchises still have value
The timing could also help, with an Assassin’s Creed Netflix adaptation expected in the coming months potentially bringing more attention to the brand
The bigger test comes later. Ubisoft expects FY28 and FY29 to bring a stronger lineup, including Assassin’s Creed Hexe, Far Cry 7, and a new Ghost Recon title. If those games perform well, bookings could move back toward the €2 billion range
The biggest risk is delays! Ubisoft has a long history of postponements, and another wave of delays could create a serious cash flow problem
The Cash Burn Problem
Ubisoft’s biggest weakness remains free cash flow
The company has reported negative free cash flow in four of the last five fiscal years, including:
- FY24: approximately -€500 million
- FY26: approximately -€400 million
Management expects FY27 free cash flow usage to remain below €500 million, but that does not leave much room for mistakes
The positive scenario is that Ubisoft expects cumulative free cash flow to turn positive between FY27 and FY29. That would significantly improve its financial position, but it depends entirely on the upcoming games actually launching and performing
The company has already started reducing expenses. Fixed costs declined from €1.75 billion in FY23 to €1.44 billion in FY26, with a target of €1.25 billion by FY28. Ubisoft has also reduced its workforce from around 20,000 employees to roughly 16,000.
The smaller cost base lowers the break even point, but it does not fix everything. Ubisoft still needs successful games to generate enough revenue
Why Investors Should Pay Attention
The market is pricing in a serious solvency risk
Investors are not only worried about weak games. They are worried Ubisoft may need to raise capital if cash flow does not improve, which could lead to dilution. The catalog provides stability, but the company has little room for another major disappointment
The upside could be significant if cash flow returns
A valuation below 1x annual bookings only makes sense if investors believe Ubisoft’s franchises are losing value. However, the company’s back catalog has remained surprisingly strong, generating more than €1 billion annually. The bar for improvement is relatively low
Tencent has already assigned value to Ubisoft’s best assets
The Vantage Studios deal valued the company’s core franchises at €3.8 billion, far above Ubisoft’s current market valuation. That does not guarantee success, but it shows strategic buyers see long-term value.
Ubisoft still has reputation problems
The company has dealt with workplace controversies, game quality issues, delays, cancellations, and criticism over leadership structure. The Guillemot family maintaining tight control remains a point of debate among investors
Ubisoft does not need a miracle. The company still owns some of gaming’s strongest franchises, its back catalog generates over €1 billion annually, and its cost structure is finally moving in the right direction
But the next few years will decide everything. Ubisoft needs to successfully launch its upcoming games, stabilize free cash flow, and prove that its smaller organization can generate consistent profits.
At around 0.6x average net bookings, the market is pricing Ubisoft as if the recovery will fail. After years of delays and disappointing launches, investors are not buying the story anymore.. They want proof
For Ubisoft, the next major release is not just another game launch, It is a test of whether one of gaming’s biggest publishers can rebuild trust
Long
UNILEVER Critical Crossroads and/or Nice Longterm Entrypoint! Unilever is currently trading at a highly significant technical level . Looking at the long-term historical price structure, the stock has pulled back into an area that has repeatedly acted as major support over the years. At the same time, price action continues to respect the ascending support trendline that has been in place since roughly 2002 ( at least based on the for me available chart history ).
At the moment, price is hovering near the upper boundary of this long-term rising structure, attempting to maintain strength while waiting for renewed momentum to enter the market. From a bullish perspective, the key factor here is whether buyers can successfully defend the current zone. Ideally, we would want to see volume return alongside a strong continuation move higher. If momentum shifts back in favor of the bulls, a retest of the all-time high around €67.12 — reached on February 13, 2026 — could imply approximately 38% upside potential from current levels.
That said, downside risk should not be ignored. There is a realistic possibility that price enters a broader consolidation range, illustrated by the green box on the chart ( with the questionmark in it ). Historically, a very similar ranging environment occurred between December 2014 and February 2017, during which the stock traded within a maximum fluctuation range of roughly 30%. If history were to rhyme, this could also suggest the potential for a deeper corrective move before a larger trend continuation develops.
From a fundamental perspective, Unilever is in the middle of a major strategic transformation focused on simplifying and streamlining its operations. The company has already divested its ice cream division — including brands such as Magnum — and in March 2026 announced the merger of its food division with McCormick & Company. As a result, the “new” Unilever will become a more focused consumer goods company centered entirely around Beauty & Wellbeing, Personal Care, and Home Care.
Investor sentiment around this transition remains mixed. On one hand, underlying business performance remains relatively solid, with Q1 2026 underlying sales growth coming in at 3.8%, which demonstrates resilience on an organic basis. On the other hand, reported revenue in euro terms declined by 3.3% year-over-year versus Q1 2025, largely due to unfavorable currency effects. This creates a market environment where both bullish and bearish interpretations remain valid depending on whether investors prioritize operational growth or top-line contraction.
Overall, the current price region appears attractive from a long-term investment perspective, especially considering the historical technical support and the company’s strategic repositioning. However, in the short term, traders should continue monitoring both price action and macro/fundamental developments closely, as volatility in either direction remains highly possible.
Not financial advice. Trade safe <3 !
Long
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