Max pain $51K? Bitcoin options worth over $9.4B set to expire Friday

Mar 27, 202416:41 UTC

Over $9.4 billion worth of Bitcoin BTCUSD options are set to expire on the Deribit cryptocurrency exchange on March 29, with some analysts suggesting that Bitcoin’s “max pain” price could be around the $50,000 range.

Max pain Bitcoin price closer to $50,000

Over 134,000 BTC worth of open interest is set to expire on the Deribit exchange at 8:00 am UTC on March 29, suggesting a max pain price of $50,000, according to data shared by Unfolded in a March 27 X post.

Related: Bitcoin price reclaims $70K as Coinbase BTC supply hits 9-year low

The max pain price is the strike price with the most open Bitcoin options contracts (puts and calls), at which the given asset would cause financial losses for most option holders at expiration.

Bitcoin could potentially see a correction to the $51,000 mark if inflows in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) slow down, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, who wrote in a March 22 X post:

“New whales, mainly ETF buyers, have a $56K on-chain cost basis. Corrections typically entail a max drawdown of around 30% in bull markets, with a max pain of $51K.”

After five consecutive days of negative outflows last week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $15 million worth of net flows on March 25, the same day Bitcoin price recorded its highest daily close of above $69,000 in the past 10 days. The 10 Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $418 million on March 26.

Is the pre-halving Bitcoin correction over?

Bitcoin’s pre-halving price correction occurred in line with previous historical retraces ahead of the halving, according to analyst Rekt Capital, who wrote in a March 25 X post:

“The Pre-Halving Retrace occurred right on schedule. And now Bitcoin is back to $70,000.”

Bitcoin price could break out toward new all-time highs if the old all-time high of $69,000 is flipped into support, said Rekt Capital in a March 26 video analysis:

“Bitcoin is now peaking beyond this old all-time high, potentially positioning itself for this pre-halving retracement to be over.”

Last week’s Bitcoin price correction suggests that the price has already formed a local bottom, or is close to doing so, according to a research note by Bitfinex analysts shared with Cointelegraph:

“We believe the pullback last week for Bitcoin from its current all-time high of $73,666, and amounting to an approximate 17.5 percent correction, suggests we are close to establishing a local bottom - and indeed may have already done so.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.