Inflationary Pressures, Fed's Upcoming Dot-Plot Reset Weigh on US Equity Indexes

US equity indexes fell, led by technology, as government bond yields traded at their highest this month following the hotter-than-expected inflation data this week and ahead of the Federal Reserve's updated economic projections.

The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 5,114.6, with the Nasdaq Composite down 1% to 15,966.1 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.6% lower at 38,677.4. Technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary led the decliners intraday, while energy was the sole gainer.

The US Treasury two-year yield rose three basis points to 4.72%, and the 10-year yield climbed one basis point to 4.31%.

The market has so far been focused on June as the most likely time for the Federal Reserve to begin its easing cycle, according to a note from Deutsche Bank. "But this week's releases have led to growing doubts about that," referring to February's stronger-than-expected consumer and wholesale price inflation data.

There is now a one-in-three likelihood the Fed won't cut at all by June, said Jim Reid, head of global fundamental credit strategy at Deutsche Bank. And, for the full-year 2024, just 76 basis points of cuts are priced in by the December meeting, which is the fewest for this year. That's a turnaround from the start of 2024, when cuts expected by December were 158 basis points, with the first reduction fully priced in for March.

"So we're seeing yet another hawkish repricing, which echoes several other points over the last couple of years when markets have priced in a dovish pivot before progressively dialing that back," Reid said. "Indeed, this pattern of pricing a dovish pivot has happened at least 7 times now in this cycle, and on the previous 6 it was followed by even more hawkish outcomes."

The Fed's policy meeting next week could be highly consequential, said a note from Macquarie. "That's because the [Federal Open Market Committee] will issue a new Summary of Economic Projections and new 'dots', which is likely to set the tone for the action that emerges afterward."

Part of what may motivate the Fed's officials to get more "hawkish" on the long-term outlook for the appropriate policy rate is the recent strength of the US economy, which is in evidence despite the ostensibly restrictive stance of monetary policy, Macquarie added.

Meanwhile, in economic news, US industrial production rose 0.1% in February, compared with expectations for a flat reading in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following a downwardly revised 0.5% decrease in January. The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index slipped to 76.5 in March from 76.9 in February, versus expectations for 77.1 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

In company news, Adobe's ADBE shares fell more than 14% intraday, the second-worst performer on the S&P 500, after the technology giant issued fiscal Q2 revenue guidance that trailed analysts' projections.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil slipped 0.3% to $81.06 per barrel intraday.

Gold fell 0.1% to $2,164.6 per troy ounce, while silver jumped 1.9% to $25.53.