I wanted to put some more meaning behind the numbers for 2020's Covid pandemic. I hope this tool can help people analyze and deal with these hard times. With these metrics I hope to give greater depth and dimension to whats available. While also at the same time creating something that looks decently presentable and gives actionable information.
I had planned on including a few forecasting models and letting the user play with values to see how social distancing works. But alas I couldnt complete those in the scope of time I gave myself for the indicator. If you are interested in collaborating on it, I will share what I have with you and we can further work on it.
The script contains 3 main parts you will interact with. I suggest you enable the chart labels for "indicator name" and "indicator last value" to make the charts more readable (right click on the scale of your chart and goto the "labels" pop out menu). Depending on what plots and data you choose to chart, logarithmic and regular scales can both be applied in different situations. To get similar visuals to the examples I will show below, you can goto the indicator options > style tab. I then play with the line styles, colors and transparencies to achieve the nice looking charts. Please also note there is a distinction between "Infected" and "Infectious". A model telling you the number of infected doesnt designate whether that person can still pass the virus on to others (infectious). So Infectious numbers are usually lower than total confirmed, but this isnt always the case if for example a country wasnt testing very much during the early phase or something else.
I am not a medical professional and none of this should be considered medical advice. All of the models, numbers and math I sourced from professional places but this is not a guarantee of the future only an approximation based on current information. Numbers change daily and so can these models!
In this area you select a region to read the proper statistics data from tradingview. You can do global totals, country totals, or for a few places (AU, CA, CN , US) you can see state/province totals. Remember to SELECT ONLY ONE region.
The Plots/Stats/Data section includes:
1. ) Plot the Days to Double Number of Confirmed
2. ) Plot the Infection Growth Ratio
3. ) Plot Fatality Risk Rate (Total Deaths / Total Outcomes)
4. ) Plot Overall Fatality Rate / Recovery Rate
5. ) Plot % of World Infected & % of USA Infected
6. ) Plot Daily New Deaths , Confirmed & Recovered
7. ) Plot Daily Change Percentages
Forecasting Models and Settings:
1 .) Plot the % of Custom Population Infected (Vs. the Region Selected in Part 1 of Settings)
2 .) Plot the True Num. of Infectious (Death Model / DM )
3 .) Plot the Current and Next Weeks Cumulative Infection Projection ( DM )
4 .) Plot Estimated Infection Rates? ( DM )
5 .) Enable Basic Trajectory Projection?
6 .) Plot the Likelihood of > 0 **Infectious** in a Group ( DM ) for Today, Tomorrow and Next Week
7 .) Plot the True Num. of Infected (Confirmed/Tested Model)
8 .) Plot the Estimated Epidemiology for 7 and 14 Days Out (Hospital Beds, ICU Beds, Ventilator Units)
Planned But not completed
9.) SIR Epidemiology Model
10.) Exponential Growth Plot & Correlation
To use the Estimator for likelihood of Infected in N group of people you need to do 2 things. Select and use "Custom Population" as the population source for part 3. Then you need to enable "Custom Infected" as the source for the model. Then you enter your geographical area's population and confirmed cases. Its best to goto the smallest / most granular level of data available to accurately estimate the likelihood. So for instance in the order of least effective to most effective data source: global, country, state, county, city...etc.
If you do not understand what these terms or numbers represent, please read the source materials I have linked in the code, or use google . I dont have the time or expertise to explain all the various specific methods and terms included here. This entire project was a learning journey for me and I have zero experience in epidemiology so please excuse any errors I may have made. (and tell me, so I can change it!)
If anyone has a model or stat they would like included I will be happy to add your code to this toolbox to make it more effective and give you credit here in the description. If you want to collaborate please message me.
📊Some Example Charts:
The Cryptorhythms Team wish you and your families all the absolute best of health!
P.S. Stay safe and act smart I dont think this will be the EOTW.