SPX Daily Probability Predictor_MFCDescription:
The SPX Daily Probability Predictor is a powerful trading indicator designed exclusively for TradingView, providing traders with valuable insights into the potential movement of the S&P 500 index (SPX) on a daily basis. This indicator utilizes a sophisticated calculation method based on historical price movements, including gaps, to estimate the probability of the index's future direction.
Key Features:
Daily Probability Calculation:
The indicator calculates the daily probability of the SPX movement by analyzing the standard deviation of historical price changes. This statistical approach offers a comprehensive understanding of the market's volatility and aids traders in making more informed decisions.
Historical Movement Inclusion:
Unlike traditional indicators that only consider the closing prices, the SPX Daily Probability Predictor goes a step further by incorporating the full spectrum of daily movements, including gaps. This inclusive approach provides a more accurate representation of market dynamics, enhancing the reliability of the probability predictions.
Real-Time Analysis:
Stay ahead of the market with real-time analysis that adapts to the current trading session. The SPX Daily Probability Predictor dynamically adjusts its calculations throughout the trading day, ensuring that traders receive the most up-to-date and relevant information for their decision-making process.
Customizable Parameters:
Tailor the indicator to your trading preferences with customizable parameters. Adjust the lookback period or fine-tune other settings to align the probability predictions with your individual trading strategy.
By incorporating historical price movements, including gaps, and employing statistical analysis to calculate daily probabilities, the SPX Daily Probability Predictor equips traders with a valuable tool for anticipating potential market directions. Whether you are a seasoned investor or a newcomer to the world of trading, this indicator provides actionable insights that can contribute to more informed decision-making in the dynamic environment of the stock market.
Upcoming Enhancements:
Please note that while the SPX Daily Probability Predictor currently offers a robust set of features for daily market analysis, we are committed to continuous improvement and the development of additional functionalities. In future updates, users can look forward to exciting enhancements, including the capability to forecast future probabilities of market movements. This forward-looking feature will provide traders with a valuable glimpse into potential trends, aiding in more proactive decision-making.
Furthermore, we are actively working on expanding the indicator's scope to accommodate different time frames. Soon, traders will have the option to obtain probability data not only on a daily basis but also for monthly or weekly intervals. This extended flexibility allows for a more comprehensive analysis, catering to various trading styles and preferences.
As we strive to create a versatile and powerful tool for the TradingView community, we welcome user feedback and suggestions for additional features. Your insights play a crucial role in shaping the future evolution of the SPX Daily Probability Predictor, ensuring it remains a valuable asset in the dynamic landscape of financial markets. Stay tuned for updates as we continue to enhance and refine this innovative trading indicator.
Statistics
[ETNX] BTC CME OI L/SOVERVIEW
This indicator displays how many traders have Long and Short positions opened on CME Bitcoin Futures and Options. The data is provided from the CFTC Commitments of Traders Reports. These reports are given weekly. Therefore, this indicator works better on weekly timeframes.
The COT reports are separated into 5 categories:
Dealer/Intermediary - These participants are typically described as the “sell side” of the market. Though they may not predominately sell futures, they design and sell various financial assets to clients. They tend to have matched books or offset their risk across markets and clients. Futures contracts are part of the pricing and balancing of risk associated with the products they sell and their activities. These include large banks (U.S. and non-U.S.) and dealers in securities, swaps, and other derivatives.
Asset Manager/Institutional - These are institutional investors, including pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, mutual funds, and portfolio/investment managers whose clients are predominantly institutional.
Leveraged Funds - These are typically hedge funds and various types of money managers, including registered commodity trading advisors (CTAs); registered commodity pool operators (CPOs), or unregistered funds identified by CFTC. The strategies may involve taking outright positions or arbitrage within and across markets. The traders may be engaged in managing and conducting proprietary futures trading and trading on behalf of speculative clients.
Other Reportables - Reportable traders not placed into one of the first three categories are placed into the “other reportables” category. The traders in this category mostly use markets to hedge business risk, whether that risk is related to foreign exchange, equities, or interest rates. This category includes corporate treasuries, central banks, smaller banks, mortgage originators, credit unions and any other reportable traders not assigned to the other three categories.
Non Reportable
INPUT DISPLAY
The Open Interest can be displayed in three ways:
Contracts - How many contracts are opened on CME
BTC - How many BTC the contracts worth
Billions USD - How much is worth in USD based on the CME BTC Price
The Open Interest is calculated for:
Futures - The Futures Short and Long Positions Opened
Futures & Options - The Futures & Options Short and Long Positions Opened
Cryptocurrency Cointegration Matrix (SpiritualHealer117)This indicator plots a cointegration matrix for the pairings of 100 cryptocurrencies. The matrix is populated with ADF t-stats (from an ADF-test with 1 lag). An ADF-test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test) tests the null hypothesis that an AR process has a unit root. If rejected, the alternative hypothesis is usually that the AR process is either stationary or trend-stationary. This model extends upon Lejmer's Cointegration Matrix for forex by enabling the indicator to use cryptocurrency pairs and allows for significantly more pairs to be analyzed using the group selection feature. This indicator arose from collaboration with TradingView user CryptoJuju.
This indicator runs an ADF-test on the residuals (spread) of each pairing (i.e. a cointegration test). It tests if there is a unit root in the spread between the two assets of a pairing. If there is a unit root in the spread, it means the spread varies randomly over time, and any mean reversion in the spread is very hard to predict. By contrast, if a unit root does not exist, the spread (distance between the assets) should remain more or less constant over time, or rise/fall in close to the same rate over time. The more negative the number from an ADF-test, the stronger the rejection of the idea that the spread has a unit root. In statistics, there are different levels which correspond with the confidence level of the test. For this indicator, -3.238 equals a confidence level of 90%, -3.589 equals a confidence level of 95% and -4.375 equals a confidence level of 99% that there is not a unit root. So the colors are based on the confidence level of the test statistic (the t-stat, i.e. the number of the pairing in the matrix). So if the number is greater than -3.238 it is green, if it's between -3.238 and -3.589 it's yellow, if it's between -3.589 and -4.375 it's orange, and if its lower than -4.375 it's red.
There are multiple ways to interpret the results. A strong rejection of the presence of a unit root (i.e. a value of -4.375 or below) is not a guarantee that there is no unit root, or that any of the two alternative hypotheses (that the spread is stationary or trend-stationary) are correct. It only means that in 99% of the cases, if the spread is an AR process, the test is right, and there is no unit root in the spread. Therefore, the results of this test is no guarantee that the result proves one of the alternative solutions. Green therefore means that a unit root cannot be ruled out (which can be interpreted as "the two cryptocurrencies probably don't move together over time"), and red means that a unit root is likely not present (which can be interpreted as "the two cryptocurrencies may move together over time").
One possible way to use this indicator is to make sure you don't trade two pairs that move together at the same time. So basically the idea is that if you already have a trade open in one of the currency pairs of the pairing, only enter a trade in the other currency pair of that pairing if the color is green, or you may be doubling your risk. Alternatively, you could implement this indicator into a pairs trading system, such as a simple strategy where you buy the spread between two cryptocurrencies with a red result when the spread's value drops one standard deviation away from its moving average, and conversely sell when it moves up one standard deviation above the moving average. However, this strategy is not guaranteed to work, since historical data does not guarantee the future.
Specific to this indicator, there are 100 different cryptocurrency tickers which are included in the matrix, and the cointegration matrices between all the tickers can be checked by switching asset group 1 and asset group 2 to different asset groups. The ADF test is computed using a specified length, and if there is insufficient data for the length, the test produces a grayed out box.
NOTE: The indicator can take a while to load since it computes the value of 400 ADF tests each time it is run.
[ETNX] BTC CME TradersOVERVIEW
This indicator displays how many traders have Long and Short positions opened on CME Bitcoin Futures and Options. The short traders have negative values only for display purposes. Therefore, if the short value is displayed as -56, that means that there are 56 traders that have short positions opened. The total of traders is the sum of short and long traders. The data is provided from the CFTC Commitments of Traders Reports. These reports are given weekly. Therefore, this indicator works better on weekly timeframes.
The COT reports are separated into 5 categories:
Dealer/Intermediary - These participants are typically described as the “sell side” of the market. Though they may not predominately sell futures, they design and sell various financial assets to clients. They tend to have matched books or offset their risk across markets and clients. Futures contracts are part of the pricing and balancing of risk associated with the products they sell and their activities. These include large banks (U.S. and non-U.S.) and dealers in securities, swaps, and other derivatives.
Asset Manager/Institutional - These are institutional investors, including pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, mutual funds, and portfolio/investment managers whose clients are predominantly institutional.
Leveraged Funds - These are typically hedge funds and various types of money managers, including registered commodity trading advisors (CTAs); registered commodity pool operators (CPOs), or unregistered funds identified by CFTC. The strategies may involve taking outright positions or arbitrage within and across markets. The traders may be engaged in managing and conducting proprietary futures trading and trading on behalf of speculative clients.
Other Reportables - Reportable traders not placed into one of the first three categories are placed into the “other reportables” category. The traders in this category mostly use markets to hedge business risk, whether that risk is related to foreign exchange, equities, or interest rates. This category includes corporate treasuries, central banks, smaller banks, mortgage originators, credit unions and any other reportable traders not assigned to the other three categories.
Non Reportable
INPUT DISPLAY
The Open Interest can be displayed in three ways:
Futures - The Futures Short and Long Positions Opened
Options - The Options Short and Long Positions Opened
Futures & Options - The Futures & Options Short and Long Positions Opened
Supertrend Multiasset Correlation - vanAmsen Hello traders!
I am elated to introduce the "Supertrend Multiasset Correlation" , a groundbreaking fusion of the trusted Supertrend with multi-asset correlation insights. This approach offers traders a nuanced, multi-layered perspective of the market.
The Underlying Concept:
Ever pondered over the term Multiasset Correlation?
In the intricate tapestry of financial markets, assets do not operate in silos. Their movements are frequently intertwined, sometimes palpably so, and at other times more covertly. Understanding these correlations can unlock deeper insights into overarching market narratives and directional trends.
By melding the Supertrend with multi-asset correlations, we craft a holistic narrative. This allows traders to fathom not merely the trend of a lone asset but to appreciate its dynamics within a broader market tableau.
Strategy Insights:
At the core of this indicator is its strategic approach. For every asset, a signal is generated based on the Supertrend parameters you've configured. Subsequently, the correlation of daily price changes is assessed. The ultimate signal on the selected asset emerges from the average of the squared correlations, factoring in their direction. This indicator not only accounts for the asset under scrutiny (hence a correlation of 1) but also integrates 12 additional assets. By default, these span U.S. growth ETFs, value ETFs, sector ETFs, bonds, and gold.
Indicator Highlights:
The "Supertrend Multiasset Correlation" isn't your run-of-the-mill Supertrend adaptation. It's a bespoke concoction, tailored to arm traders with an all-encompassing view of market intricacies, fortified with robust correlation metrics.
Key Features:
- Supertrend Line : A crystal-clear visual depiction of the prevailing market trajectory.
- Multiasset Correlation : Delve into the intricate interplay of various assets and their correlation with your primary instrument.
- Interactive Correlation Table : Nestled at the top right, this table offers a succinct overview of correlation metrics.
- Predictive Insights : Leveraging correlations to proffer predictive pointers, adding another layer of conviction to your trades.
Usage Nuances:
- The bullish Supertrend line radiates in a rejuvenating green hue, indicative of potential upward swings.
- On the flip side, the bearish trajectory stands out in a striking red, signaling possible downtrends.
- A rich suite of customization tools ensures that the chart resonates with your trading ethos.
Parting Words:
While the "Supertrend Multiasset Correlation" bestows traders with a rejuvenated perspective, it's paramount to embed it within a comprehensive trading blueprint. This would include blending it with other technical tools and adhering to stringent risk management practices. And remember, before plunging into live trades, always backtest to fine-tune your strategies.
Ranges With Targets [ChartPrime]The Ranges With Targets indicator is a tool designed to assist traders in identifying potential trading opportunities on a chart derived from breakout trading. It dynamically outlines ranges with boxes in real-time, providing a visual representation of price movements. When a breakout occurs from a range, the indicator will begin coloring the candles. A green candle signals a long breakout, suggesting a potential upward movement, while a red candle indicates a short breakout, suggesting a potential downward movement. Grey candles indicate periods with no active trade. Ranges are derived from daily changes in price action.
This indicator builds upon the common breakout theory in trading whereby when price breaks out of a range; it may indicate continuation in a trend.
Additionally, users have the ability to customize their risk-reward settings through a multiplier referred to as the Target input. This allows traders to set their Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) levels according to their specific risk tolerance and trading strategy.
Furthermore, the indicator offers an optional stop loss setting that can automatically exit losing trades, providing an additional layer of risk management for users who choose to utilize this feature.
A dashboard is provided in the top right showing the statistics and performance of the indicator; winning trades; losing trades, gross profit and loss and PNL. This can be useful when analyzing the success of breakout trading on a particular asset or timeframe.
Baseline Optimizer NNFX [m8b]DESCRIPTION
The Baseline Optimizer indicator is a tool to aid in baseline configuration (specifically moving averages). It manages state across iterations within a single bar to allow the indicator to test different settings. This allows the user to find a specific configuration that works well for that asset and timeframe. It also recreates pieces of the default TradingView backtesting framework so multiple settings can be tested concurrently.
Originality and usefulness
Default pine script doesn't allow for state management within a loop due to the way historical values are handled (e.g. EMA). It also does not allow for backtesting across multiple settings concurrently. The the functions are all unique in that they allow for proper state management during the optimization process.
ADDITIONAL BACKGROUND AND USAGE
While the platform is built to support the NNFX way of trading, this indicator can be utilized by any trader who wants to optimize an MA for a specific asset, chart, or time frame regardless of asset class.
NNFX revolves around a systematic approach to trading, designed to be mechanical and with minimal discretionary input. This strategy typically involves multiple indicators across different categories to confirm trading signals. The approach involves:
Baseline indicator to determine the overall trend direction
Confirmation (Leading & Lagging) indicator used to validate the trade
Volume indicator to confirm the presence of market participation
Exit indicator to signal when to close the trade
Supported Moving Averages
v1 (this indicator): ALMA, DEMA, EMA, HMA, KAMA, RMA / SMMA, SMA, Tilson T3, TEMA, WMA, VWMA
USAGE
By default, this indicator will run on “Standard” mode, and acts as a roll-up of MAs. Simply set the MA type and length.
When mode is set to “Optimizer”, a table will appear on the chart that displays trade stats for the various configurations.
Net Profit, Closed Trades, % Profitable, Profit Factor, Max Drawdown, Avg Trade, Avg Bars
STANDARD SETTINGS
MA Type: ALMA, DEMA, EMA, HMA, KAMA, RMA, SMA, T3, TEMA, WMA, VWMA
MA Length: Length of the MA
MA: Source: Source for the MA
OPTIMIZER SETTINGS
Profit factor threshold: Acts as a filter to the trading stats to make it more readable
% profitable threshold: Acts as a filter to the trading stats to make it more readable
Min trades threshold: Acts as a filter to the trading stats to make it more readable
Start & End Date: The data window for the optimizer to backtest
Trade Direction: All, Long only, Short Only
Pyramid Max: Works the same as standard TradingView pyramid
Optimizer Param Start: The first value for the optimizer
Optimizer Param End: The end value for the optimizer
Optimizer Param Step: The step value for the optimizer
Stats green threshold: The value to turn results green
Stats red threshold: The value to turn results red
IMPORTANT NOTES (Errors & Pine Limitations)
Warm-up Period Multiplier: "Warming up" refers to the period where the indicator begins to reflect accurate and meaningful data. A default value of 5 should generally ensure baseline data is accurate. If performance is an issue (e.g. timeouts), this can be adjusted down at the cost of accuracy. While this may not be ideal, for the purposes of optimization the results should be directionally accurate in most cases with lower values. If you see the stats changing in real-time in the results, that’s often a good indicator your warm-up is too short. Note, the EMA in particular requires a long warm-up due to its nature (~3 x length)
Timeouts: Depending on your TradingView plan, scripts will either timeout after 20 or 40 seconds. If you get too aggressive with either timeframes or Start/End/Step, you may timeout. THIS IS NOT A BUG, it’s a limitation of TradingView and/or your plan. The fixes for this are 1) test less states at a time 2) use a higher timeframe 3) get a Premium TradingView Plan.
Array Size / Memory Size: This should rarely be an issue with baseline optimization, BUT if you get really aggressive with settings (particularly on the T3) you could run into a scenario with Pine reaches/exceeds the limitation of an array size (100,000). If this happens, reduce your timeframe or input param values to resolve.
DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. The developers are not financial advisors and accept no liability for how you use the information or features. By using this indicator, you acknowledge that all trading decisions are your own responsibility and that past performance does not guarantee future results.
TrendX Earning-Approach Valuation (Stock)TrendX Earning-Approach Valuation (Stock) indicator is a Fundamental Analysis tool that only focus on the Earnings of the company.
USAGE
This Earning-Approach Valuation is easy to use and customize. TrendX valuates a company's Fair Value based on all the earnings multiples and its average with a little interference of users' risk capacity. Technical Analysis is also included as an additional basis for investment decisions.
Valuation tool
The strategy projects the future value of the company based on its Fiscal Quarter operating income, net income and diluted total shares outstanding. Operating income is the income from the core business operations, before interest and taxes. Net income is the income after interest, taxes and other expenses. The strategy assumes that the operating income and net income will grow at the same rate as their historical values.
The strategy also adjusts the diluted total shares outstanding, which may change due to dilutive securities, to calculate the projected EPS. It then uses the price-to-earnings (P/E) as a multiple in future valuation approach.
Value classification
TrendX classifies 2 phases between Under-value and Over-value, which are represented in green and red, respectively. This toolkit can work well with other indicators of technical analysis, but it can also stand on its own because of its built-in Technical Analysis plugins, which are explained below.
Display potential Support and Resistance levels
TrendX shows support and resistance levels based on the company's past and present Fair Values, which is colored in white. It also draws a current Fair Value line with green coloring.
Potential Entry and Exit zone
By combining the Breakout and retesting technique in both Lagging and Leading's perpective, with the Earning-based valuation, traders can optimize not only the entry-level at the Undervalued zone but also the exit-level at the potential “Bear” area.
Margin of Safety
TrendX also incorporates the margin of safety, which is shown in Risk Ability for customs.
CONCLUSION
The strategy is useful for valuing companies that have positive and stable earnings, and a predictable growth rate. Accordingly, it can also be helpful for traders to use alongside other forms of Technical Analysis.
Many traders fail to realize that indicators are not enough to achieve success, and they end up getting confused and frustrated by trying to find a perfect solution. TrendX aims to avoid this problem by providing clear and concise signals that can be easily followed
Disclaimer
The results achieved in the past are not all reliable sources of what will happen in the future. There are many factors and uncertainties that can affect the outcome of any endeavor, and no one can guarantee or predict with certainty what will occur.
The strategy also relies on assumptions that may not be accurate or realistic, which can vary depending on the market conditions and investor sentiment.
If you notice significant changes in the Valuation over time, it is due to revisions in the company’s reported financials, changes in accounting standards, or corrections of previous errors.
Therefore, you should always exercise caution and judgment when making decisions based on past performance.
Expected Move by Option's Implied Volatility High Liquidity
This script plots boxes to reflect weekly, monthly and yearly expected moves based on "At The Money" put and call option's implied volatility.
Symbols in range: This script will display Expected Move data for Symbols with high option liquidity.
Weekly Updates: Each weekend, the script is updated with fresh expected move data, a job that takes place every Saturday following the close of the markets on Friday.
In the provided script, several boxes are created and plotted on a price chart to represent the expected price moves for various timeframes.
These boxes serve as visual indicators to help traders and analysts understand the expected price volatility.
Definition of Expected Move: Expected Move refers to the anticipated range within which the price of an underlying asset is expected to move over a specific time frame, based on the current implied volatility of its options. Calculation: Expected Move is typically calculated by taking the current stock price and applying a multiple of the implied volatility. The most commonly used multiple is the one-standard-deviation move, which encompasses approximately 68% of potential price outcomes.
Example: Suppose a stock is trading at $100, and the implied volatility of its options is 20%. The one-standard-deviation expected move would be $100 * 0.20 = $20.
This suggests that there is a 68% probability that the stock's price will stay within a range of $80 to $120 over the specified time frame. Usage: Traders and investors use the expected move as a guideline for setting trading strategies and managing risk. It helps them gauge the potential price swings and make informed decisions about buying or selling options.There is a 68% chance that the underlying asset stock or ETF price will be within the boxed area at option expiry. The data on this script is updating weekly at the close of Friday, calculating the implied volatility for the week/month/year based on the "at the money" put and call options with the relevant expiry. This script will display Expected Move data for Symbols within the range of JBL-NOTE in alphabetical order.
In summary, implied volatility reflects market expectations about future price volatility, especially in the context of options. Expected Move is a practical application of implied volatility, helping traders estimate the likely price range for an asset over a given period. Both concepts play a vital role in assessing risk and devising trading strategies in the options and stock markets.
Financial PlusFinancial Plus is an indicator designed to provide users with the flexibility to select up to 10 different financial metrics within four key categories: Statistics, Income Statements, Balance Sheets, and Cash Flow. Powered by Pine Script's request.financial() function, this library offers access to over 200 financial metrics.
You can choose from multiple frequency options, such as FQ (quarterly) , FY (yearly) , TTM (trailing twelve months) , and FH (semiannual) , depending on the availability of each metric. For detailed information regarding specific metrics and their supported frequencies, please consult Financial IDs .
BarChangeDeltaThe "BarChangeDelta" indicator, facilitates the calculation of price delta or percent changes between user-defined start and end points within the current or between preceding and current bars. It offers several customizable options to fit various trading strategies.
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This indicator provides the following key functionalities:
- Two Modes:
* PreviousToCurrentBarDelta: Compares user-selected start points from the previous bar to the end points of the current bar.
* CurrentBarDelta: Compares user-selected start and end points within the current bar.
- Start Point/End Point Customization: Allows users to define the source for start and end points used in the delta calculations.
- ABS Mode: Option to display only absolute values, reflected on the histogram drawn.
- Show delta in percents: Enables users to calculate delta in percentage changes instead of price delta.
- Moving Average (MA) Plot: A plot of the MA of the last user-defined number of delta prices or percents.
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The "BarChangeDelta" indicator finds practical application in various trading scenarios. It can be particularly useful for assessing daily price changes between open/close or high/low for determining strike prices, especially for 0DTE trading.
Z-ScoreThe "Z-Score" indicator is a unique and powerful tool designed to help traders identify overbought and oversold conditions in the market. Below is an explanation of its features, usefulness, and what makes it special:
Features:
Z-Score Calculation: The indicator calculates the Z-Score, a statistical measure that represents how far the current price is from the moving average (MA) in terms of standard deviations. It helps identify extreme price movements.
Customizable Parameters: Traders can adjust key parameters such as the Z-Score threshold, the type of MA (e.g., SMA, EMA), and the length of the moving average to suit their trading preferences.
Signal Options: The indicator offers flexibility in terms of signaling. Traders can choose whether to trigger signals when the Z-Score crosses the specified threshold or when it moves away from the threshold.
Visual Signals : Z-Score conditions are represented visually on the chart with color-coded background highlights. Overbought conditions are marked with a red background, while oversold conditions are indicated with a green background.
Information Table: A dynamic information table displays essential details, including the MA type, MA length, MA value, standard deviation, current price, and Z-Score. This information table helps traders make informed decisions.
Usefulness:
Overbought and Oversold Signals: Z-Score is particularly valuable for identifying overbought and oversold market conditions. Traders can use this information to potentially enter or exit positions.
Statistical Analysis: The Z-Score provides a statistical measure of price deviation, offering a data-driven approach to market analysis.
Customization: Traders can customize the indicator to match their trading strategies and preferences, enhancing its adaptability to different trading styles.
Visual Clarity: The visual signals make it easy for traders to quickly spot potential trade opportunities on the price chart.
In summary, the Z-Score indicator is a valuable tool for traders looking to incorporate statistical analysis into their trading strategies. Its customizability, visual signals, and unique statistical approach make it an exceptional choice for identifying overbought and oversold market conditions and potential trading opportunities.
Expected Move by Option's Implied Volatility Symbols: EAT - GBDC
This script plots boxes to reflect weekly, monthly and yearly expected moves based on "At The Money" put and call option's implied volatility.
Symbols in range: This script will display Expected Move data for Symbols within the range of EAT-GDBC in alphabetical order.
Weekly Updates: Each weekend, the script is updated with fresh expected move data, a job that takes place every Saturday following the close of the markets on Friday.
In the provided script, several boxes are created and plotted on a price chart to represent the expected price moves for various timeframes.
These boxes serve as visual indicators to help traders and analysts understand the expected price volatility.
Definition of Expected Move: Expected Move refers to the anticipated range within which the price of an underlying asset is expected to move over a specific time frame, based on the current implied volatility of its options. Calculation: Expected Move is typically calculated by taking the current stock price and applying a multiple of the implied volatility. The most commonly used multiple is the one-standard-deviation move, which encompasses approximately 68% of potential price outcomes.
Example: Suppose a stock is trading at $100, and the implied volatility of its options is 20%. The one-standard-deviation expected move would be $100 * 0.20 = $20.
This suggests that there is a 68% probability that the stock's price will stay within a range of $80 to $120 over the specified time frame. Usage: Traders and investors use the expected move as a guideline for setting trading strategies and managing risk. It helps them gauge the potential price swings and make informed decisions about buying or selling options. There is a 68% chance that the underlying asset stock or ETF price will be within the boxed area at option expiry. The data on this script is updating weekly at the close of Friday, calculating the implied volatility for the week/month/year based on the "at the money" put and call options with the relevant expiry.
In summary, implied volatility reflects market expectations about future price volatility, especially in the context of options. Expected Move is a practical application of implied volatility, helping traders estimate the likely price range for an asset over a given period. Both concepts play a vital role in assessing risk and devising trading strategies in the options and stock markets.
Expected Move by Option's Implied Volatility Symbols: CLFD-EARN This script plots boxes to reflect weekly, monthly and yearly expected moves based on "At The Money" put and call option's implied volatility.
Symbols in range: This script will display Expected Move data for Symbols within the range of CLFD - EARN in alphabetical order.
Weekly Updates: Each weekend, the script is updated with fresh expected move data, a job that takes place every Saturday following the close of the markets on Friday.
In the provided script, several boxes are created and plotted on a price chart to represent the expected price moves for various timeframes.
These boxes serve as visual indicators to help traders and analysts understand the expected price volatility.
Definition of Expected Move: Expected Move refers to the anticipated range within which the price of an underlying asset is expected to move over a specific time frame, based on the current implied volatility of its options. Calculation: Expected Move is typically calculated by taking the current stock price and applying a multiple of the implied volatility. The most commonly used multiple is the one-standard-deviation move, which encompasses approximately 68% of potential price outcomes.
Example: Suppose a stock is trading at $100, and the implied volatility of its options is 20%. The one-standard-deviation expected move would be $100 * 0.20 = $20.
This suggests that there is a 68% probability that the stock's price will stay within a range of $80 to $120 over the specified time frame. Usage: Traders and investors use the expected move as a guideline for setting trading strategies and managing risk. It helps them gauge the potential price swings and make informed decisions about buying or selling options. There is a 68% chance that the underlying asset stock or ETF price will be within the boxed area at option expiry. The data on this script is updating weekly at the close of Friday, calculating the implied volatility for the week/month/year based on the "at the money" put and call options with the relevant expiry.
In summary, implied volatility reflects market expectations about future price volatility, especially in the context of options. Expected Move is a practical application of implied volatility, helping traders estimate the likely price range for an asset over a given period. Both concepts play a vital role in assessing risk and devising trading strategies in the options and stock markets.
Expected Move by Option's Implied Volatility Symbols: B - CLF
This script plots boxes to reflect weekly, monthly and yearly expected moves based on "At The Money" put and call option's implied volatility.
Symbols in range: This script will display Expected Move data for Symbols within the range of B - CLF in alphabetical order.
Weekly Updates: Each weekend, the script is updated with fresh expected move data, a job that takes place every Saturday following the close of the markets on Friday.
In the provided script, several boxes are created and plotted on a price chart to represent the expected price moves for various timeframes.
These boxes serve as visual indicators to help traders and analysts understand the expected price volatility.
Definition of Expected Move: Expected Move refers to the anticipated range within which the price of an underlying asset is expected to move over a specific time frame, based on the current implied volatility of its options. Calculation: Expected Move is typically calculated by taking the current stock price and applying a multiple of the implied volatility. The most commonly used multiple is the one-standard-deviation move, which encompasses approximately 68% of potential price outcomes.
Example: Suppose a stock is trading at $100, and the implied volatility of its options is 20%. The one-standard-deviation expected move would be $100 * 0.20 = $20.
This suggests that there is a 68% probability that the stock's price will stay within a range of $80 to $120 over the specified time frame. Usage: Traders and investors use the expected move as a guideline for setting trading strategies and managing risk. It helps them gauge the potential price swings and make informed decisions about buying or selling options. There is a 68% chance that the underlying asset stock or ETF price will be within the boxed area at option expiry. The data on this script is updating weekly at the close of Friday, calculating the implied volatility for the week/month/year based on the "at the money" put and call options with the relevant expiry.
In summary, implied volatility reflects market expectations about future price volatility, especially in the context of options. Expected Move is a practical application of implied volatility, helping traders estimate the likely price range for an asset over a given period. Both concepts play a vital role in assessing risk and devising trading strategies in the options and stock markets.
TrendX Financial Modelling (Stock)TrendX Financial Modelling (Stock) indicator is a comprehensive tool that takes full advantage of both financial modelling and technical analysis to estimate the Intrinsic Value of any security. There are 2 main Fundamental methods for Intrinsic valuation: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Basic Valuation.
USAGE
This Intrinsic Value Indicator is easy to use and customize. TrendX enables adjusting the parameters such as the type of basic valuation, market expected growth rate, the earnings multiple, and the margin of safety level according to your own assumptions and preferences. You can also apply different filters and alerts to get notified when a buy or sell signal is generated.
Valuation tool
DCF model will calculate the Present Value of all expected future cash flows, discounted at an appropriate rate, and compare it with the current market condition. In addition, Basic Valuation consists of 6 types of approaches depending on the industry of the target company. Combining these, the chart will show the potential target value from the current price.
Value classification
TrendX classifies 2 phases between Under-value and Fair-value, which are represented in Purple and grey, respectively.
Display potential targets
TrendX spot key target levels based on TrendX’s Valuation toolkit.
Optimal valued entry-exit
By combining the Breakout structure and divergences with the TrendX financial model, investors can optimize not only the entry-level at the Undervalued zone but also the exit-level at the potential “Bear” area.
Margin of safety
TrendX also incorporates the margin of safety principle, which is a key concept in value investing. The margin of safety is the secured zone between the intrinsic value and the market price, expressed as a percentage. The higher the margin of safety, the lower the risk of loss and the higher the potential return, which is customizable based on your preferences.
CONCLUSION
The Intrinsic Financial Model Indicator is very practical for any investor who wants to make informed and rational decisions based on Fundamental Analysis. It will help find undervalued gems in any market and avoid overpaying for overhyped stocks. Accordingly, it can also be helpful for traders to use alongside other forms of Technical Analysis.
Many traders fail to realize that indicators are not enough to achieve success, and they end up getting confused and frustrated by trying to find a perfect solution. TrendX aims to avoid this problem by providing clear and concise signals that can be easily followed
DISCLAIMER
The results achieved in the past are not all reliable sources of what will happen in the future. There are many factors and uncertainties that can affect the outcome of any endeavor, and no one can guarantee or predict with certainty what will occur.
If you notice significant changes in the Intrinsic Valuation over time, it is due to revisions in the company’s reported financials, changes in accounting standards, or corrections of previous errors.
Therefore, you should always exercise caution and judgment when making decisions based on past performance.
Lite Trading Diary : equity curveDynamic trading journal with equity curve display. Detailed results with prop firm objectives, editable, $/month estimation, possibility to compare two strategies.
one line in parameter = one trade.
For each trade, specify : RR (Win, or "-1" for a stoploss), type of trade, and a comment.
The bottom left table summarizes the overall performance with some key information. RA return => Risk adjusted performance.
there is the possibility to define a "Type" : type 1, 2 or 3. It allows to split the equity curve. You can thus distinguish the different sub-strategies of your strategy, visually see their effectiveness, and be able to adjust your risk exposure accordingly.
Learn from your backtests. Identify your strengths, your weaknesses, and improve!
All the conditions to succeed in the challenge are adjustable in the parameters. Please note : drawdown on the equity curve is max drawdown. On the table => static drawdown.
Use "A random day trading" indicator to spice up your training.
I hope this will be useful for you to track your performance !
OI Visible Range Ladder [Kioseff Trading]Hello!
This Script “OI Visible Range Ladder” calculates open interest profiles for the visible range alongside an OI ladder for the visible period!
Features
OI Profile Anchored to Visible Range
OI Ladder Anchored to Visible Range
Standard POC and Value Area Lines, in Addition to Separated POCs and Value Area Lines for each category of OI x Price
Configurable Value Area Targets
Curved Profiles
Up to 9999 Profile Rows per Visible Range
Stylistic Options for Profiles
Up to 9999 volume profile levels (Price levels) can be calculated for each profile, thanks to the new polyline feature, allowing for less aggregation / more precision of open interest at price.
The image above shows primary functionality!
Green profiles = Up OI / Up Price
Yellow profiles = Down OI / Up Price
Purple profiles = Up OI / Down Price
Red profiles = Down OI / Down Price
The image above shows POCs for each OI x Price category!
Profiles can be anchored on the left side for a more traditional look.
The indicator is robust enough to calculate on “small price periods”, or for a price period spanning your entire chart fully zoomed out!
That’s about it :D
This indicator is Part of a series titled “Bull vs. Bear” - a suite of profile-like indicators.
Thanks for checking this out!
If you have any suggestions please feel free to share!
Global Leaders M2Introducing the Global Leaders M2 Indicator
The Global Leaders M2 indicator is a comprehensive tool designed to provide you with crucial insights into the money supply (M2) of the world's top 10 economic powerhouses. This powerful indicator offers a wealth of information to help you make informed decisions in the financial markets.
Key Features:
Multi-Country M2 Data: Access M2 data for the world's top 10 economic leaders, including China, the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, Russia, and India.
Rate of Change Analysis: Understand the rate of change in M2 data for each country and the overall global aggregate, allowing you to gauge the momentum of monetary supply.
Customizable Display: Tailor your chart to display the data of specific countries, or focus on the total global M2 value based on your preferences.
Currency Selection: Choose your preferred currency for displaying the M2 data, making it easier to work with data in your currency of choice.
Interactive Overview Table: Get an overview of M2 data for each country and the global total in an interactive table, complete with color-coded indicators to help you quickly spot trends.
Precision and Clarity: The indicator provides precision to two decimal places and uses color coding to differentiate between positive and negative rate of change.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or a newcomer to the world of finance, the Global Leaders M2 indicator equips you with valuable data and insights to guide your financial decisions. Stay on top of global monetary supply trends, and trade with confidence using this user-friendly and informative tool.
Gap Statistics (Zeiierman)█ Overview
The Gap Statistics (Zeiierman) indicator is crafted to monitor, analyze, and visually present price gaps on a trading chart. Price gaps are areas on a chart where the price jumps up or down from the previous close to the next open, creating a "gap" in the normal price pattern. This script delivers an extensive range of statistics related to these gaps, encompassing their size, direction (whether bullish or bearish), frequency of getting filled, as well as the average number of bars it takes for a gap to be filled. The indicator also visually represents the gaps, making it easier for traders to spot and analyze them.
█ How It Works
Gap Identification: The script identifies gaps by comparing the open price of a bar to the close price of the previous bar. If there is a discrepancy between the two, it is recognized as a gap.
Gap Classification: Once a gap is identified, it is classified based on its size (as a percentage of the previous close price) and direction (bullish or bearish). The gap is then added to a specific category based on its size.
Gap Tracking: The script keeps track of all identified gaps using arrays and user-defined types, storing details like their size, direction, and whether they have been filled.
Gap Filling: The script continuously monitors the price to check if any previously identified gaps get filled. A gap is considered filled if the price moves back into the gap area.
Statistics and Alerts: The script calculates various statistics like the total number of gaps, the number of filled gaps, the average number of bars it takes for a gap to fill, and the percentage of gaps that get filled. It also generates alerts when a new gap is identified or an existing gap gets filled.
█ How to Use
Gaps are often classified into four main types:
Common Gaps: These are not associated with any major news and are likely to get filled quickly.
Breakaway Gaps: These occur at the end of a price pattern and signal the beginning of a new trend.
Runaway Gaps: Also known as continuation gaps, these occur in the middle of a trend and signal a surge in interest in the stock.
Exhaustion Gaps: These occur near the end of a price pattern and signal a final attempt to hit new highs or lows.
The Gap Statistics (Zeiierman) indicator enhances a trader's ability to use gaps in their trading strategy in several ways:
Statistical Analysis: Traders get comprehensive statistics on gaps, such as their size, direction, and how often they get filled.
Performance Tracking: The indicator tracks how many bars it typically takes for a gap to fill, providing traders with an average timeframe for gap closure.
█ Settings
Display Gaps: Choose to display "All Gaps," "Active Gaps," or "None."
Show Gap Size: Toggle on/off the display of the gap size.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
RSI Heatmap Screener [ChartPrime]The RSI Heatmap Screener is a versatile trading indicator designed to provide traders and investors with a deep understanding of their selected assets' market dynamics. It offers several key features to facilitate informed decision-making:
█ Custom Asset Selection:
The user can choose up to 30 assets that you want to analyze, allowing for a tailored experience.
█ Adjustable RSI Length:
Customize your analysis by adjusting the RSI length to align with your trading strategy.
█ RSI Heatmap:
The heatmap feature uses various colors to represent RSI values:
█ Color coding for labels:
Grey: Signifies a neutral RSI, indicating a balanced market.
Yellow: Suggests overbought conditions, advising caution.
Pale Red: Indicates mild overbought conditions in a strong area.
Bright Red: Represents strong overbought conditions, hinting at a potential downturn.
Pale Green: Signals mild oversold conditions with signs of recovery.
Dark Green: Denotes full oversold conditions, with potential for a bounce.
Purple: Highlights extremely oversold conditions, pointing to an opportunity for a relief bounce.
█ Levels:
Central Plot and Zones: The central plot displays the average RSI of the selected assets, offering an overview of market sentiment. Overbought and oversold zones in red and green provide clear reference points.
█ Hover Labels:
Hover over an asset to access details on various indicators like VWAP, Stochastic, SMA, TradingView ranking, and Volume Rating. Bullish and bearish indicators are marked with ticks and crosses, and a fire emoji denotes heavily overextended assets.
█ TradingView Ranking:
Utilize the TradingView ranking metric to assess an asset's performance and popularity.
Thank you to @tradingview for this ranking metric.
█ Volume Rating:
Gain insights into trading volumes for more informed decision-making.
█ Oscillator at the Bottom:
The RSI average for the entire market, presented in a normalized format, offers a broader market perspective. Green indicates a favorable buying area, while red suggests market overextension and potential short or sell opportunities.
█ Heatmap Visualization:
Historical RSI values for each selected asset are displayed. Red indicates overbought conditions, while green signals oversold conditions, helping you spot trends and potential turning points.
This screener is designed to make entering the market simpler and more comprehensive for all traders and investors.
Intraday Volume Rating [Honestcowboy]The Intraday Volume Rating aims to provide a clearer picture of what volume is telling you on intraday charts.
What is different to other forms of volume analysis
While Volume averages and other measures of volume base their calculations on the previous bars on the chart (for example bars 1954 to 1968). The average volume in this indicator measures expected volume during that time of the day.
🔷 Why would you take this approach?
Markets behave different during certain times of the day, also called sessions.
Here are a couple examples.
Asian Session (generally low volatility)
London Session (bigger volatility starts)
New York Session (overlap of New York with London creates huge volatility)
Generally when using other types of volume averaging it does not take into account these sessions and that the market has a pattern for volume in an intraday chart.
🔷 CALCULATION
Think of this script like an average of volume but instead it uses past days data instead of previous bars data.
This is a chart explaining the indicator this script is based on The same principle applies but instead we measure volume at each bar of the day.
The script also counts the number of bars that exist in a day on your current timeframe chart. After knowing that number it creates the matrix used in it's calculations and data storage.
See how it works perfectly on a lower timeframe chart below:
Getting this right was the hardest part, check the coding if you are interested in this type of stuff. I commented every step in the coding process.
Every setting of the script is commented so no need for further explanation, enjoy!
Frequency Distribution Overlay [SS]Hello all,
This is the frequency distribution indicator. It does as the name suggests,
It breaks down the frequency distribution of any stock over a user defined lookback period and shows where the accumulations rest by percantage.
This is a function that I used to have to export to Excel or SPSS to do, but now its possible in Pinescript!
Essentially, it breaks down the areas a stock has closed in over a defined period and gives you the accumulation for each area.
What it is used for:
It is used to see where the higher areas of price accumulation rest. This helps us to identify potentially likely retracement areas and pullback areas.
It colour coordinates based on distribution and lists the composition of each zone in a label in each box.
The zones are divided by standard deviation, which means that the top and bottom of each range act as substantial areas of support/resistance (as it falls outside the normal variance of a stock).
Customizability:
The indicator is pretty straight forward, you select your desired lookback period and it will adjust accordingly.
Additionally, you can adjust for close, high, low, etc. if you want to see the accumulation and distribution of hights vs, lows vs closes.
You can toggle off the text labels if you don't want them.
The green boxes represent the areas of highest accumulation, the red box the areas of lower accumulation.
You can use it on any timeframe you wish. Above is an example of the daily, but you can also use it on the smaller TFs as well:
TSLA on the 5 minute:
And that is the indicator!
Let me know if you have questions or suggestions.
Safe trades everyone!
Old Tradability by Kiersten & HajiIntroduction:
The "Old Tradability" is a meticulously crafted indicator designed exclusively for TradingView users. It brings together the power of various well-respected indicators, offering traders a comprehensive tool to gauge market conditions and make informed decisions. Whether you're a novice trader looking for a reliable indicator or a seasoned professional seeking to add another layer to your analytical toolbox, Old Tradability is tailored to provide actionable insights.
Core Features:
Dual Level Analysis:
Long-Term Trend Analysis: At its core, Old Tradability emphasizes the identification of prevailing long-term market trends. To achieve this, it leverages the capabilities of some of the most recognized indicators in the trading world, such as:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Known for its reliability in spotting trend changes and momentum.
MFI (Money Flow Index): A valuable tool to evaluate the flow of money into and out of an asset, often used to predict overbought or oversold conditions.
Heikin Ashi: A unique form of candlestick charting that filters market noise, helping traders understand the market sentiment and trend direction more clearly.
Short-Term Analysis Using MinMax Normalization: The indicator doesn't stop at just identifying the long-term trend. Recognizing the importance of short-term price movements, Old Tradability applies MinMax Normalization on shorter time frames. This technique adjusts the scale of data, making it easier to spot potential reversals or continuation patterns.
Strategic Trading Recommendations:
The principle is simple yet effective. When the long-term trend is bullish and the short-term analysis places the asset in the bottom 20%, it presents a potential buying opportunity. Conversely, if the long-term trend is bearish and the short-term places the asset in the top 20%, traders might consider it as a selling signal.
Integrated Risk Management Alerts:
One of the standout features of Old Tradability is its built-in risk management system. This feature ensures that traders are not only informed about potential trade setups but also about the inherent risks associated.
The system sends out timely alerts for what it deems as "perfect setups," allowing traders to act swiftly and decisively. This minimizes the chance of missing out on lucrative trades while also providing an extra layer of security by notifying users about unfavorable conditions.
Conclusion:
The Old Tradability Indicator is more than just a tool; it's a comprehensive trading companion. Its dual-level analysis ensures that traders have a holistic view of the market, while its integrated risk management alerts keep them one step ahead. If you're looking for a dependable, detailed, and actionable indicator on TradingView, Old Tradability might just be the perfect addition to your trading strategy. Happy trading!
