NVT has exited the OverBought condition after 3 months. And this event offers multiple layers for interpretation:
The local top at $13k-$14k got confirmed by the NVT.
Looking back in history, we see that after this event happened a severe correction was due along the next weeks/months, pushing price down between 50%-70% which would bring us into the $4k-7$k...
Now that the NVT indicator is back in the red zone, I wanted to look back at the Bitcoin chart to spot potential topping patterns.
I am seeing a likely NVT cross with its signal line by the end of the day (still unconfirmed).
And at the same time, I am plotting here the Dinapoli Momentum Switch indicator in search for key correlations.
And we can see two potential...
Today I want to focus on 2 fundamental metrics that aim to call Cycle Tops and Cycle Bottoms in Bitcoin:
Daily Mining Income (USD)
Through the analysis of the USD equivalent Bitcoin Mining Revenue, we can forecast future bottoming areas.
When Bitcoin topped in 2013 at $1163, it set the bar for the mining income level around $5.1M...
Today I want to look at the bigger picture to put in context the recent Bitcoin move.
In the weekly chart, we see that the bias is bearish. The lows at 3100 fail to qualify as a THE BOTTOM by any sort of crypto standard:
a) Lack of volume
b) Lack of strong bounce
c) Lack of institutional blueprint
d) NVT still optimistic
Now, I want to look it from the...
This is the weekly read of the NVT indicator.
Bitcoin has been following a descending wedge pattern since mid-January '19.
And in contrast, NVT has been oscillating in a tight range between 86-91.
I see an apparent disconnection between the market price and the underlying fundamentals.
And we can feel that disconnection when NVT is drawing a potential double...
The NVT indicator is anticipating a down move in BTC.
We can observe that the recent drop to 3400 has triggered the break of the NVT Trendline that we were monitoring for the last days.
That signal is anticipating a near retest of BTC bottoms around 3100 area.
If the test of the lows would fail, then we'd focus on the harmonic targets that sit below 3k area....
Today I'm bringing an interesting study of the BTC bottoming.
We'll zoom out to weekly chart to compare the potential bottoming of BTC through the perspective of NVT indicator.
If we draw the descending trendline that was broken after bottoming in 2015, we see that it was tagged twice and got rejected. And the bottom took place between these rejections.
Volatility is contracting in Daily Bitcoin to similar levels seen prior to the violent move down from 6000 to 4000.
In this study, we're going to use the NVT indicator as a tool to confirm when could happen the next breakout.
The NVT line has bottomed during December 2018 and already allows us to draw trendlines on it.
We can observe the red NVT trendline being...
Today's BTC drop move is very welcomed from a technical perspective because it adds some clarity to the picture.
I have activated a couple of Daily scenarios to be monitored.
First one (orange arrows) would give us some bullish market structure drawing a bottom at around 3400 (Binance).
The second one (teal arrows) assumes a deeper correction back to 2800 area,...
In daily chart we see potential symmetries between June-July and Sept-Oct Price Action.
This is a speculative WHAT-IF scenario:
1) First, we see mirrored corrective moves from Higher High (HH) to Higher Low (HL) and to test All Time High (ATH).
2) Price approaches ATH after 38 bars correcting and recovering ground.
3) Price breaches ATH after 54 bars. That opens...
Bull case for ZEC looks promising on Daily chart .
We're painting a nice looking potential double bottom . Volume on the current bottoming is well below average, and we're building plenty of Hidden bullish divergences all around.
Looks like a good place to scale in to join the ride.
The chart is hinting that big guys might be soon interested in reloading.
IOCBTC is near the low of the rectangle in which is trading from September 2016.
That is a robust level which has sustained price inside the rectangle even when Poloniex decided to delist IOCBTC.
Now, we see a double bottom forming near the lows. Candles are painting in light red indicating exhaustion in 3-day bear cycle.
Momentum indicators are fully recharged...