This post is my updated vision to Bitcoin future price dynamics in context of broken all time log trend (blue in picture).
So the Bitcoin lost its huge momentum to stay in this trend - this was going to happen sooner or later.
As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in ...
No resistances till weekly SMA200 i see since price broke down historical log trend. Textbook ABC correction since ATH in historical IV wave? Hmmm... So I assume this correction will take much longer than I expected (expected 1 year). Weekly SMA200 should be a perfect bullish entry point as candidate #1 of "THE BOTTOM".
Midterm picture looks bearish. Price is under cruical curves weekly sma20 and daily sma200 which are strong resistances.
Weekly sma20 did a bend down, which was always a bad sign.
We got a double bottom at around $6k which does some support.
Overall midterm picture is bearish (70/30).
Longterm picture is bullish while historical log lower trend line at around ...
I adjusted 2nd trend line according to support/resistance levels.
I think price trace historical wave 4. Wave 5 top would be above $20k. Probably, even above $100k.
Price may start climbing 5th wave either right now or after doing another low - not less than $3300. Hitting lower zone would invalidate bullish long term count.
I definately see correlation in wave structure between 2013th bubble and a current. This is update of "Long term Bitcoin price extrapolation" posted 7 Oct 2016.
Many time past since then. And log scaled trends grew a lot.
You can see some historical trends here. The lowest defines "Normal growth" and price is currently inside it. The upper ones defines "mid and ...
I compared current run with first historical sub-waves and made an extrapolation of future historical "3" peak.
I took a ratios from subwaves 2 and 3 of historical 1.
After historical 2 I noticed volatility decreased in more than two times: 2.19
So I concluded historical 3 should be in 2.19 times shorter that 3 of historical 1, which price rise ratio was x132. ...
The target of ongoing drop is somewhere between weekly ma20 (540) and daily ma200 (490).
I think break of daily ma 200 has low odds to happen (or may happen without closing below it - instant bounce). If it close below d/ma200 - it would be bearish sign. Unless it doesn't - we have a normal correction of 198 - 778 rally.
The fibs are: 418 487 556