Well, I thought it will be not so quick. So targets are:
~$100k and $180k - realistic and optimistic targets if rainbow charts regression is valid (google bitcoin rainbow charts).
~$260k if we deal with simple logarithmic trend
This is it. After that major top something really bad should happen in a whole world economy, which will trigger biggest and longest...
For those who interested, here is a Bitcoin Strength Index source code. I used it on weekly chart with params (close,28). And only with Bitcoin. And only during bull run. It shows how far price went off the particular moving average during bubble run (i.e. being above BB). Weekly MA 28 is approximately daily ma 200.
The physical meaning of this indicator is to...
Its a bearish daily behavior to close in negative BB zone and touch lower band (which is nice daily support zone btw).
Also watch out weekly candle to close below upper BB.
So in this case price is usually doing a swing between daily 20 ma and weekly 20 ma. In steps:
1. Finding support not far bellow daily bottom BB band
2. Bouncing up back to daily 20 ma
Based on past Bitcoin trading experience I made an indicator Bubble Strength Index, which is suitable for shorting on Bitcoin Bubbles only. Current picture shows shorting bubble is good idea at indicator levels >=1.4.
Need a further work and monitoring of this.
For those who ask loud bullish predictions. I don't post great bullish charts with daring targets, as TV has a lot of this. I post side views that could be interesting. So.
This is what I meant few weeks ago when said "I can't ignore weekly MACD".
For first, there was a bullish hook.
For the second there is some heuristical deduction:
1. Bitcoin is bullish?...
So previous two idea trends failed. One was too steep and price crashed its bottom. And the second was too flat so price pierced its top line. So lets get the third variant, something in a middle and try call the top!
As you can see, $10k level is very important for Bitcoin and was under siege multiple times in the past. From downside... Now the battle is going on from upside. It takes more time than I personally expected, but this doesn't surprise me much when I look backwards.
If Bitcoin hold $10k on weekly basis (i.e. weekly candle will not close below) - it will be a...
This is not more than 4 months prediction, as I spotted new bullish channel. According to my idea price may reach ATH area in 2 months with following some triangle-like consolidation. For EW lovers - I think price is in starting local III wave with all 3rd-wave-specific bullish drama around. Wave length is around 2 months.
Amid of global financial panic Bitcoin price aggressively attacks Weekly SMA200 and bottom triangle line of previous chart. I see this might not end as well as i thought. As bearish potential of global markets is huge.
So lets brainstorm whats gonna happen in bearish outcome.
What do we do? We suppose triangle broken downside.
This suggests FLAT correction in...
Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.
My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.
But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...
I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH. It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.
We have wave b of (C) here in its termination state, which shows textbook ending diagonal with falling volume and multiple oscillator bearish divergences. Ending diagonal allows some upside from here even temporary breaking resistance lines....
This post is my updated vision to Bitcoin future price dynamics in context of broken all time log trend (blue in picture).
So the Bitcoin lost its huge momentum to stay in this trend - this was going to happen sooner or later.
As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in...
No resistances till weekly SMA200 i see since price broke down historical log trend. Textbook ABC correction since ATH in historical IV wave? Hmmm... So I assume this correction will take much longer than I expected (expected 1 year). Weekly SMA200 should be a perfect bullish entry point as candidate #1 of "THE BOTTOM".