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I expect something like this. As seen in 2011-2012 and 2013-2015.
Midterm picture looks bearish. Price is under cruical curves weekly sma20 and daily sma200 which are strong resistances.
Weekly sma20 did a bend down, which was always a bad sign.
We got a double bottom at around $6k which does some support.
Overall midterm picture is bearish (70/30).
Longterm picture is bullish while historical log lower trend line at around ...
I adjusted 2nd trend line according to support/resistance levels.
I think price trace historical wave 4. Wave 5 top would be above $20k. Probably, even above $100k.
Price may start climbing 5th wave either right now or after doing another low - not less than $3300. Hitting lower zone would invalidate bullish long term count.
When $3500 level breaks up on weekly basis - I see no resistances till ~$15000 level mark.
I definately see correlation in wave structure between 2013th bubble and a current. This is update of "Long term Bitcoin price extrapolation" posted 7 Oct 2016.
Many time past since then. And log scaled trends grew a lot.
You can see some historical trends here. The lowest defines "Normal growth" and price is currently inside it. The upper ones defines "mid and ...
Selected area has a maszsive support including linear and log long term support trendline, daily ma200 and weekly ma20.
We drew a nice 3 year cup with past rally. Now the time to draw a handle.
Description is on image
In a closest 1-2 years $DXY may make a multi-year top around 112 (and EURUSD may drop bellow 1)
Then a multi-year bearish trend may follow
Two legible divergences on macd and rsi may be discovered on daily chart.
This may hint a short term correction. The correction may drop down to a strong support at weekly MA20 (640-660).
We have a setup of giant cup and handle pattern here. In a case of break up the target would be around ATH $1150. This may form another giant cup with appropriate consequences.
I compared current run with first historical sub-waves and made an extrapolation of future historical "3" peak.
I took a ratios from subwaves 2 and 3 of historical 1.
After historical 2 I noticed volatility decreased in more than two times: 2.19
So I concluded historical 3 should be in 2.19 times shorter that 3 of historical 1, which price rise ratio was x132. ...
The target of ongoing drop is somewhere between weekly ma20 (540) and daily ma200 (490).
I think break of daily ma 200 has low odds to happen (or may happen without closing below it - instant bounce). If it close below d/ma200 - it would be bearish sign. Unless it doesn't - we have a normal correction of 198 - 778 rally.
The fibs are: 418 487 556
Triangle is about to break up in one-two months. Long on breakout. Geometry break up target 600-650.
After a sharp moves such as recent to 500, price usually forms a triangle. And usually with continuation.
Bitcoin draws a bullish wedge on daily chart along with falling volume and hidden bullish divergences