As you can see, $10k level is very important for Bitcoin and was under siege multiple times in the past. From downside... Now the battle is going on from upside. It takes more time than I personally expected, but this doesn't surprise me much when I look backwards.
If Bitcoin hold $10k on weekly basis (i.e. weekly candle will not close below) - it will be a...
This is not more than 4 months prediction, as I spotted new bullish channel. According to my idea price may reach ATH area in 2 months with following some triangle-like consolidation. For EW lovers - I think price is in starting local III wave with all 3rd-wave-specific bullish drama around. Wave length is around 2 months.
Amid of global financial panic Bitcoin price aggressively attacks Weekly SMA200 and bottom triangle line of previous chart. I see this might not end as well as i thought. As bearish potential of global markets is huge.
So lets brainstorm whats gonna happen in bearish outcome.
What do we do? We suppose triangle broken downside.
This suggests FLAT correction in...
Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.
My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.
But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...
I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH. It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.
We have wave b of (C) here in its termination state, which shows textbook ending diagonal with falling volume and multiple oscillator bearish divergences. Ending diagonal allows some upside from here even temporary breaking resistance lines....
This post is my updated vision to Bitcoin future price dynamics in context of broken all time log trend (blue in picture).
So the Bitcoin lost its huge momentum to stay in this trend - this was going to happen sooner or later.
As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in...
No resistances till weekly SMA200 i see since price broke down historical log trend. Textbook ABC correction since ATH in historical IV wave? Hmmm... So I assume this correction will take much longer than I expected (expected 1 year). Weekly SMA200 should be a perfect bullish entry point as candidate #1 of "THE BOTTOM".
Midterm picture looks bearish. Price is under cruical curves weekly sma20 and daily sma200 which are strong resistances.
Weekly sma20 did a bend down, which was always a bad sign.
We got a double bottom at around $6k which does some support.
Overall midterm picture is bearish (70/30).
Longterm picture is bullish while historical log lower trend line at around...
I adjusted 2nd trend line according to support/resistance levels.
I think price trace historical wave 4. Wave 5 top would be above $20k. Probably, even above $100k.
Price may start climbing 5th wave either right now or after doing another low - not less than $3300. Hitting lower zone would invalidate bullish long term count.
I definately see correlation in wave structure between 2013th bubble and a current. This is update of "Long term Bitcoin price extrapolation" posted 7 Oct 2016.
Many time past since then. And log scaled trends grew a lot.
You can see some historical trends here. The lowest defines "Normal growth" and price is currently inside it. The upper ones defines "mid and...