Historical IV almost completed

PentarhUdi Updated   
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...
Comment: Bearish outcome explained

Comment: This should bounce up now from weekly sma 200 (~5200) up to daily sma 200 (~8500). This is normal in both bearish and bullish counts.

I personally do not like tails left below triangle by panic sells. This could be either real bear trap before my green counts or bear hints before red counts.

Red and green counts now have equal probability for me.

I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months.
Comment: Bounce up is on a track. However daily ma200 is on 8000 now.

Giant triangle approaches resolution soon. Price will either break up ma200 and upper triangle line or bounce down from ma200 and go to hell.
Comment: Daily SMA 200 revisited and broken up with healthy long green daily candle. I am now waiting upper trend line (@10000) to be broken to return midterm absolutely bullish bias.

Unless that I keep in mind "Bearish outcome" related idea because of last very painful dip.

Comment: In a case of new higher high (higher than 13 Feb 2020 ~ $10500) any bearish scenario will be invalidated.
Comment: Happy halvening and as I said earlier, price doesn't give a fuck about this event.
Comment: Updating aka Cpt Obvious. Short-term bullish trend. Breaking this trend down will likely send price back to 5500 support. In other side if price following this trend break up long term descending trend line, we will likely see new ATH.

Comment: Just dropping some stones into short term bearish pan. Hidden bearish divergences on daily chart.

Comment: This break down isn't good in short term
Comment: All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

Trade closed: target reached: The target of local short-term triangle is above $11000. Which will trigger break of long term resistance line at around $10000. And this will trigger break of giant long term triangle with target well above all time high.

This is a start of long term bull run. It probably will take around 4 years. After that world will see 10 years of bearish activity.

Comment: Wait a minute...
Comment: Tripple top on daily... Bearish pattern. Will trigger at close below $8000 with a target to $6000.
Comment: Either triple top or range lock...

Comment: Still adjusting long term upper resistance line...
Price range locked for almost 3 months now...
Discovered yet another escape trend.

Comment: Idea closed. Triangle broken. Hope so... )) Looking what to post next.

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