gliderfund
Short

NVT pointing to a deeper Bitcoin correction

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   XBT / USD
NVT has exited the OverBought condition after 3 months. And this event offers multiple layers for interpretation:
  • The local top at $13k-$14k got confirmed by the NVT .
  • Looking back in history, we see that after this event happened a severe correction was due along the next weeks/months, pushing price down between 50%-70% which would bring us into the $4k-7$k range.

Alternatively, a more classical interpretation could suggest that not so deep retracements are needed to alleviate the overextension.
To the point that the Bitcoin network matures, the corrections might soften compared to the ones we've experienced in the past.

Therefore we have 2 scenarios to consider:

1) This time is NOT different scenario, which would bring BTC back into the $4k-$7k range.

2) And the This time IS different scenario, which would be content with a softer correction and seeing BTC bottoming in $8k area.

Please note that both scenarios assume printing a higher low above the $3100 December lows.
So, all in all, that's a good thing to build a proper market structure to support the next up move beyond all-time highs at $20k.

NOTE: I’ve plotted the information on a 3-day chart for better visualization. But the NVT data is based on daily candles.
I am committed to developing indicators that meet the requirements of professional traders. Hope you find it useful.

Please consider giving back and attract some good karma! :)

BTC: 3MJZa4KUPPrEWrEmWxJyCtpEAAtveUhrW8

Comments

In bull markets when the NVT signaled we usually retraced about 25 percent. The retracements you refered to were always in bear markets
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing Refer a friend House Rules Help Center Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Blog & News Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Referred friends Coins My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out