Bitcoin - Can the bulls break resistance?Bitcoin continues to stagnate after a strong sell-off. Market structure remains weak, and trading volume is declining as price keeps moving sideways within a tight range. Traders are uncertain about the next move, and both bulls and bears currently lack conviction. Overall sentiment is cool, with most attention focused on nearby resistance zones. Many eyes are on how BTC reacts to the current consolidation area.
4H Bearish FVG
Just above the current price lies a clear bearish 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). This zone now acts as strong resistance. When BTC retests this area, a rejection is the most likely scenario. Only a breakout with strong volume would give bulls something to lean on. As long as this FVG holds, further downside remains the path of least resistance.
1H Timeframe
The 1-hour timeframe shows ongoing consolidation and repeated struggles with the local 1H bearish FVG. Every attempt to break through this area is immediately rejected. As a result, the probability of BTC breaking to the downside increases, which would allow the market to collect the liquidity resting below. Bears are expected to keep defending this zone until the market breaks through with conviction. Consolidation may continue as long as the support level holds, but the underlying downside risk remains significant.
Conclusion
BTC remains technically pressured as long as there is no convincing breakout above the 4H FVG. The current range is vulnerable to a downward break, especially with weak volume and persistent resistance structures. Traders would be wise to wait for clearer signals or a new trend on higher timeframes before committing to a direction.
Stocks
Stocks Stage Comeback in Time for Thanksgiving. What's Behind ItItโs Thanksgiving, and you know what that means. โHey, sweety, why don't you come here and let us know how your high-beta stocks are doing. Hereโs our little investor.โ
And for once, the answer isnโt followed by a sigh. Stock traders are heading into the holiday with something they havenโt had in a while โ gains and optimism.
Major US indices just logged their fourth straight day of gains, with the Nasdaq Composite on pace for its best Thanksgiving week since 2008.
Thatโs right: the last time the Nasdaq had a holiday rally this strong, we were still explaining what a โsmartphoneโ was.
This year, itโs all about two things:
A dovish Federal Reserve
An AI trade that refuses to sit idle
Letโs carve into whatโs driving this seasonal sprint.
๐ AI Fears Cool Off
The market has spent the past month wrestling with fears that AI stocks were puffing up like an overfilled Thanksgiving parade balloon. But this week, the anxiety faded.
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV , Dell NYSE:DELL , and even suddenly-revived AI-adjacent names have found solid footing again. The Nasdaq TVC:IXIC jumped 0.8% on Wednesday, outpacing the other indices and reminding investors that tech still runs this town.
What changed?
No new AI scandals and bubble talk
No shocking spending pivots (thanks, Meta NASDAQ:META )
No high-profile shorts announcing apocalyptic bets (thanks, Burry)
And some great data-center guidance in recent earnings ( thanks, Dell NYSE:DELL )
Even Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , which has been under the most scrutiny , clawed back 1.4% Wednesday โ though the stock is still well off its early-month peak.
Investors are clearly reshuffling their AI winners, but the trade lives on. A shakeout doesnโt mean a shutdown.
๐ฉ Breadth Returns: Not Just a Tech Party
All but two sectors of the S&P 500 SP:SPX moved higher Wednesday, pushing the broader index up 0.7%.
The Dow TVC:DJI matched that performance, rising 315 points, with both indices tracking for their best Thanksgiving week since 2012.
Even the defensive sectors joined in. When utilities and consumer staples start partying with semiconductors and mega-cap tech, you know sentimentโs shifting.
๐ฆ The Fed Is Quietly Setting the Table
Just a week ago, the odds of a December rate cut were a coin toss โ roughly 50/50 according to CME FedWatch. Today, that probability has surged to more than 80%.
What a cut could mean to traders:
Cheaper borrowing
Higher valuations
Softer financial conditions
And fewer landmines in the months ahead
Nothing gets markets into the holiday spirit like the smell of potential rate cuts.
This week is also shortened โ stock markets are closed Thursday and shut early Friday (ref: the economic calendar ). With fewer trading hours to log, investors often front-load their optimism or their panic. This time, itโs mostly optimism.
๐ Nvidia Isnโt Gone โ Itโs Just Taking a Breath
Nvidiaโs stock remains sharply lower from its early November highs, but Wednesdayโs move showed thereโs still life in the AI leader.
Meta NASDAQ:META , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , and select cloud names have picked up flows as traders diversify their AI bets.
And while Nvidia might not be the main driver of the rally this week (spoiler alert: itโs Google ), its ability to stay positive helped prevent any emotional selling from spreading through tech.
๐ง The Warm, Lightly-Toasted Takeaway
If you were expecting a quiet, uneventful lead-in to the holidays โ the market apparently had other plans.
Hereโs where weโre at now:
A four-day winning streak,
A revival in Big Tech,
A broad rally across sectors,
And Fed expectations suddenly swinging toward cuts.
Off to you : Will it last through December? With inflation, rate decision, and jobs data, will AI stocks keep marching higher or retreat? Share your view in the comments and, to our US folks, enjoy Thanksgiving!
NVIDIA Trading plan from $100 to $1000. Is it plausible?Exactly a month ago, we called the end of the rally on NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), essentially the end of its multi-year Bull Cycle and the beginning of an aggressive Bear Cycle correction.
** The 10 year Channel Up **
So far this is paying dividends as the stock just completed a 4-week red streak. The essence of NVIDIA's trend has been a decade long Channel Up, as you can see on this chart and that's the basis of all the buy entries and sell exits we've made over the years.
** Bull and Bear Cycles **
Since early 2025, the stock started that Channel Up, whose first Bull Cycle (as well as the next ones with the exception of one breaking) was supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Once that Bear Cycle (in the form of the Channel's Bullish Leg) ended, the subsequent Bear Cycle (Bearish Leg) broke below both the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and bottomed exactly on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), marginally above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
The following Bull Cycle as well as the Bear Cycle followed the same structure only, the bottom was this time marginally below the 0.382 Fib. Then the Bull Cycle that just ended started, with only basic difference that its early 2025 correction broke below the 1W MA50 but found Support on the 1W MA100. Every Bull Cycle had such pre-Top correction (blue ellipse). Note also that this last Bull Cycle as been the strongest Leg on +1881% rise and the one before it, the 'weakest' at +1004%.
** The RSI **
Notice also that the 1W RSI has made the same Double Top rejection pattern on the Lower Highs Zone that both previous Bull Cycle Tops did. Strong confirmation therefore of the emerging Bear Cycle.
** The next bottom **
Technically, we expect the market to bottom yet again on the 1W MA200, which by a fair projection of its current trajectory, we expect that to be around $100. That would still be considerably above the 0.382 Fib, which can only get hit if the Bear Cycle falls very aggressively. Note here that historically within this Channel Up, the most optimal buy signal was given when the 1W RSI hit 42.00. Use that in combination with the 1W MA200.
** Future Targets **
So after the Bear Cycle bottoms, what Target can we pursue? Well the 'minimum' projection based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension of the Bull Cycle that just ended is $700. At the same time, if it rises by again the 'minimum' % of the weakest +1004% Bullish Leg of the Channel, we are looking potentially at a 4-year Target of $1100. It is also worth noting the valuable use of the Sine Waves that have so far accurately grasped the peak formations of the Bull Cycles. We can use this to time our market exits in 2029.
Realistic or not subjectively, the $100 to $1000 path is what the pure technicals and historical data support and clearly show is a very likely probability for a long-term investment.
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COSTCO may be the most durable choice in this Bear Cycle.Costco (COST) has been trading within a 17-year Channel Up ever since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Since its June 2025 High, it has been on a steady decline, contrary to the big gains of other high cap stocks (mainly tech).
During this decline, it has broken below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support of the Bull Cycle since May 2023, confirming its Bear Cycle.
However, it just hit its 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a critical level as it is the one that not only formed the bottom of the 2022 Bear Cycle but has also been holding since September 2017, providing numerous excellent buy entry opportunities.
With the 1M RSI also approaching its 9-year Support Zone, we believe that Costco may be one of the most durable stock investment choices during the upcoming Bear Cycle on stock indices. The Sine Waves are laying out a rather solid mapping of key market top formation periods long-term and we are currently far from one.
The 17-year Channel Up is currently on its 3rd major Bullish Leg and remarkably enough the previous two both rose by the exact same percentage, 347.16%. If the current Bullish Leg repeats that from its 2022 bottom, then we can expect this stock to reach $1800 around 2028.
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Coca-Cola Is Attacking All-Time HighsCoca-Cola is basically one of the most famous drink brands in the world. It started in the late 1800s in the U.S., and over time it turned into a huge global company. Theyโre known for their classic Coke, but they also make tons of other drinksโjuices, waters, teas, and even energy drinks.
After that gap up, Coca-Cola filled that gap as expected and then turned higher and broke above 71.77 resistance. So the wave structure remains bullish, and we could still see a push to new highs, as wave C โ possibly the final leg of an ending diagonal โ may target the 76โ78 area. So latest retracement toward 68 might have been just temporary setback ideally wave two and bulls are now ready for new highs.ย We remain bullish as long as price stays above 66.
Highlights:
Trend: Bullish (wave C continuation in w. 5)
Support: 71, 68, 66
Resistance: 74, 78
Note: Bullish above 66,ย watching for wave C resumption towards new highs.ย
Breaking: Pasithea Therapeutics Corp. (KTTA) Up 117% YesterdayPasithea Therapeutics Corp. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:KTTA ) stock saw a noteworthy uptick of 117% amidst market dip. The stock bounced from the $0.30 support to claim the $1 resistant albeit market turmoil.
With the RSI at 67, the stock is looking poised for a continuation trend should it break the 38.2% fib level. On a bearish tone, the asset is down 12% in Thursday's premarket trading.
In another news, Pasithea Therapeutics Announces Completion of Cohort 7 in Ongoing Phase 1 Trial of PAS-004 in Advanced Cancer Patients, with Positive Safety, Pharmacokinetic (PK), and Pharmacodynamic (PD) Data
About KTTA
Pasithea Therapeutics Corp., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, research, and development of treatments for central nervous system (CNS) disorders, RASopathies, and cancers. Its lead product candidate is PAS-004, a next-generation macrocyclic mitogen-activated protein kinase, or MEK inhibitor to treat a range of RASopathies, including neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1); MAPK pathway-driven tumors, such as BRAFv600 and BRAF fusion tumors; and ETS2 driven diseases, including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).
ABCL1W: turning around or just another biotech placeboABCL returns to key weekly support and prepares for the next move
ABCL has tested the strong weekly support zone between 3.48 and 3.98. This area combines Fibonacci retracement levels, a previous breakout retest and an important signal with ma50 crossing above ma100. Such a combination often forms a reliable accumulation zone. Buyers reacted immediately from this region which confirms active demand. The nearest key resistance is located near 6.05. A confident close above this level opens the path toward the next target at 8.00.
AbCellera operates in the biotechnology sector and develops advanced antibody discovery platforms for pharmaceutical partners. Revenue remains uneven due to milestone based payments. However the company maintains a strong balance sheet, significant cash reserves and a growing number of active programs. Improving sentiment in the biotech sector enhances the fundamental backdrop.
As long as price remains above the 3.48 to 3.98 area, the structure retains the signs of a forming medium term base. If this zone is lost, the market may shift into wide consolidation. The present reaction suggests that buyers are defending the level with confidence.
Support levels often speak louder than headlines. The chart usually warns long before the news arrives.
FUBO 1D is testing investor patienceFUBO is testing investor patience, yet it looks like a recovery candidate
FUBO is once again testing the major daily support zone between 2.90 and 3.00. This area is confirmed by rising volumes on pullbacks, consistent buyer reactions and a developing bullish divergence on oscillators. Recent price behavior suggests stabilization and the early phase of accumulation. The first confirmation of strength will appear after a breakout and close above 3.72. This level is the nearest structural resistance. Once price holds above it, the targets at 4.39 and 4.72 become active. As long as price stays above the support between 2.90 and 3.00, the primary scenario remains bullish.
FuboTV operates in the sports streaming segment. Recent results show revenue growth, rising average revenue per user and strengthening subscriber retention. The company continues to optimize expenses and expand partnerships across the sports broadcast ecosystem. Demand for live sports content remains strong which supports long term fundamentals.
As long as the support holds, the idea of a reversal base remains valid. A breakdown below 2.90 and 3.00 would open the door to deeper correction, yet the combination of volume and divergence signals increases the probability of a recovery.
Markets often whisper before they shout. The reaction at this support suggests that buyers are already preparing their voice.
My Sentiment for $NNOX is Still LongNanox Imaging is one of those stocks I lost long term in, and kind of got attached to. However, my sentiment based on their tech and acquisitions is still long. The biggest issue is short sale volume, the need for better PR and faster project updates, the loss of their founder, and uncertainty of the future of Nanox Imaging along with the high risk in biotech. $18.41 as a target by 2027 is still feasible, however, NASDAQ:NNOX has to deliver. They have long ways to go to revamp their brand image after what happened with short sellers. As always, none of this is investment or financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and research.
NFLX โ Bullish Structure Above 32.65 with Target at 154.29Summary:
Netflix (NFLX) maintains a broader bullish structure as long as price holds above the major key support at 32.65. Current retracement remains healthy within the Fibonacci levels, and buyers are still defending the mid-range supports.
Analysis:
Price is currently consolidating between the 0.5 Fib (85.28) and the 0.75 Fib (119.79) after a strong impulsive rally from the 32.65 base. The inability of bears to break below 32.65 confirms this zone as a long-term structural support. As long as price stays above this level, deeper bearish continuation remains unlikely.
A reclaim above 119.79 (0.75 Fib) would reopen the path toward 140.49 (0.9 Fib) and ultimately the major target at 154.29 (1.0 extension).
On the downside, a corrective pullback toward 71.48 (0.4 Fib) remains possible but does not invalidate the bullish macro trend unless 32.65 is broken.
Home Depot (HD) - Bullish Setup FormingLast week, HD tested a major support zone and swiftly reversed, signaling strong buying interest at lower levels. This bounce confirms the support's validity and opens the door for a potential continuation to the upside. The structure looks clean, with the bulls stepping back in after a healthy correction.
๐ We're now watching for a minor pullback into the $347โ$350 zone โ a key area where price may base before its next leg higher. This would offer a favorable risk-reward opportunity for a long spot trade setup.
๐ฏ Trade Plan:
Entry: $347 โ $350
Take Profits:
1๏ธโฃ $365 โ $375
2๏ธโฃ $390 โ $405
Stop Loss: Just below $331
This setup targets layered exits, managing risk while allowing room for extended gains if momentum continues.
"FMG" Is Setting Up a Structural Breakout Too Big to IgnoreFMG โ Wave 3 Expansion Continues With Macro (5) in Progress
FMG remains in a strong higher-timeframe Wave 3 expansion , with the internal macro structure developing cleanly. Macro Wave (4) has already completed after a controlled corrective phase that held within the 0.236โ0.382 retracement zone , reflecting continued institutional accumulation rather than distribution.
Price is now advancing through macro Wave (5) , which itself is unfolding in five micro waves. Micro Waves 1โ4 have already formed, with micro Wave 4 completing as a shallow pullback that preserved bullish market structure and respected prior demand.
The current phase represents the early progression of micro Wave 5 inside macro Wave (5) , all within the broader and still-developing Wave 3 . Fibonacci extensions across both macro and micro degrees align toward higher continuation targets, supporting the ongoing structural trend.
As long as the market maintains key structural lows, the directional bias remains firmly upward, with price positioned to complete the remaining segment of this Wave 3 cycle.
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading financial markets involves risk, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
If you found this analysis valuable, leave a like, drop your thoughts in the comments, and follow for more structured market insights.
PALANTIR Is there time to reach $250 before Bear Cycle begins?Palantir (PLTR) has been trading within a multi-year Channel Up throughout this Bull Cycle, which despite the recent correction just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), it still stands.
The last time in fact that we had a similar 1W MA200 approach on such a 1D RSI pattern (RSI reaching 34.00) was on January 05 2024. What followed was a 1-month rally to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, if the market delivers a strong 'Santa Rally', we may see Palantir peak at $250.00 before a Bear Cycle begins.
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United Parcel Service - Long-Term Pullback AnalysisUPS has retraced approximately 65% from its 2022 highs, presenting a potential accumulation zone based on historical price structure and key retracement levels.
Technical Observations:
Price Structure:
Current price: $94.54
Trading near the 0.618 retracement level ($112.69) from the 2020 low to 2022 high
Approaching the 0.786 retracement zone ($79.84), which historically acted as strong support
Key Levels:
Monthly support zone: $78.60 area
Long-term trend line from 2008 lows remains intact
Price action showing signs of stabilization after extended decline
Risk Considerations:
Entry zone: Current levels to $79 area
Invalidation: Break below $70 would negate bullish thesis
Timeframe: Long-term position (12-24+ months)
Potential Upside Targets:
Based on historical swing analysis and fibonacci projections:
First resistance: $135-140 zone (0.5 retracement)
Second target: $158-165 zone (0.382 retracement)
Full recovery: $187-200+ zone (previous highs)
Fundamental Context:
UPS benefits from structural trends in e-commerce and logistics. Current valuation appears compressed relative to historical norms, though macroeconomic headwinds remain a factor.
Position Sizing:
Given the long-term nature and inherent volatility, this would be considered a tier 1 allocation in a diversified portfolio with appropriate risk management.
This is not financial advice. All investments carry risk. Past price action does not guarantee future results. Conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
IREN charges up after the pullbackThe price of IREN pulled back to the lower boundary of the expanding channel and touched the 100 period moving average on the 8 hour chart. The 48 zone acted as support earlier and buyers are showing interest there again. A base is forming. A breakout above 62 can activate movement toward 76 and later 100 where the next expansion target sits.
IREN operates large scale data centers and high performance computing infrastructure including bitcoin mining and enterprise hosting. The key advantage of the company is access to low cost renewable energy which keeps hash rate costs low and allows stable scaling.
The fundamental picture on November 26 remains stable. The company continues to expand its data center capacity. Leverage stays low. The bitcoin network maintains strong activity which supports revenue. Hash rate competition increases but operators with cheap energy access like IREN gradually strengthen their market position.
As long as the price stays above the 48 zone and above the 100 period moving average the recovery structure remains valid. A confirmed move above 62 opens the path to 76 and then 100 . A move below 48 will return price to deeper consolidation.
Even miners need a pause to recharge but after such pullbacks energy normally returns very quickly.
BLMZ - bottom building or just warming up before a move?BLMZ continues to hold the key 0.14 support zone, where the market has built a tight accumulation base after completing the previous descending channel. Volatility compression, multiple retests of the horizontal level, and persistent lower wicks indicate active absorption by buyers. A rebound from 0.14 opens the way toward the first structural target at 0.50 - the liquidity zone of the previous range and a confirmed breakout above it unlocks the next target around 0.65, aligned with the upper imbalance area of the prior structure.
Company: BLMZ (Harrison Global Holdings) is a holding entity focused on distressed and developing assets, investing in undervalued businesses and restructuring opportunities.
Fundamentally , as of November 15, the company remains in a restructuring stage with low revenue, minimal liabilities, and attempts to stabilize operating expenses. As a typical microcap, the stock combines weak financials with high sensitivity to news, low float, and thin volumes. The balance sheet structure - low debt, ongoing corporate reboot, and occasional institutional interest - creates potential for sharp upside moves if a positive catalyst emerges.
As long as price stays above 0.14, the accumulation structure remains valid. A move above 0.18 pulls the range toward 0.30, and a full breakout of the upper boundary sets targets at 0.50 and 0.65. Losing 0.14 returns the stock to an extended sideways phase, though the current formation increasingly resembles pre-impulse positioning.
The chart may be whispering for now, but whispers often turn into sudden moves in the microcap world.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios โ Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025๐ฎ AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios โ Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025 ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving Headlines
๐งฑ Growth check pre holiday: Weekly jobless claims and durable goods hit together at 8 30 AM, giving a clean read on labor and business demand.
๐ฆ Capex and manufacturing pulse: The delayed September durable goods numbers update the heavy-industry side of the economy before year end.
๐ Fed Beige Book: Afternoon release colors in how businesses are actually feeling about demand, pricing, and hiring across districts.
๐ Key Data & Events (ET)
โฐ 8 30 AM
โข Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22): 225,000 vs 220,000
โข Durable Goods Orders (Sept, delayed): 0.5 percent vs 2.9
โข Durable Goods ex Transportation (Sept, delayed): 0.4 percent
โฐ 2 00 PM
โข Federal Reserve Beige Book โ anecdotal read on growth, wages, and pricing
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only โ not financial advice.
๐ #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #jobs #durablegoods #BeigeBook #stocks #bonds #markets #investing
NQ on Major Support Target 36,490Nasdaq 100 index is on major support since September. This is the area you want to buy and as it goes up take some profits if you want for a potential check back into support around early 2027 (green path).
There's the alternative scenario (orange path) that we just trend right up to 36,490 resistance and then have a major pullback to the long term trend. This one is less likely, but possible.
Either way if you sell some of your position (like shorter term options) in the middle of the range you're likely to be in a better position than holding the entire time as eventually that lower trend should get hit and that's a lot of time decay to ruin your positions.
Good luck!
US100 Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
US100 has swept internal liquidity and is now approaching the horizontal supply but hasnโt retested it yet. If the retest confirms distribution, SMC flow favors a drop toward the next sell-side liquidity zone.
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Stop Loss: 25,288
Take Profit: 24,756
Entry: 25,076
Time Frame: 3H
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Sell!
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