XLP trade ideas
Staples doing well, Watch out !Sector rotation is an important part of my studies and October clearly points out to a broken market structure. Consumer staples sector surperformance compare to the index (SP500) does not bold well for the market in general. Not only this sector (along with utilities) did beat the SP500 in October, it actually came out with a positive return. That could means investors are turning to defensive and rate sensitive sector to protect against a downturn in the market.
XLP Bullish Daily SetupXLP lining up bullish on the daily above 54.52 support with 50/200sma prepping golden cross (daily chart) and on the weekly chart 20/50ema golden cross prepping to confirm as well. This move could be extended over the next 1-2 quarters but will take time. As SPY pushes new alltime highs (again) I expect this to help as a minor catalyst to the already bullish setup and accelerate it a bit.
XLP 55 strike PUT, Betting on bearish XLP sector. Hi, my name is Spencer and it's been a long time since I've posted any ideas. I use to be a forex trader for many years and due to time constraints with my great full time job and becoming a dad, I've switched to trading stocks and specifically options.
For this trade, I am entering a short position on XLP by buying the 55$ strike for about 5 dollars per contract. Looking at the S&P500, I believe the overall market is about to struggle with higher interest rates and possibility of higher inflation. With this idea of higher interest rates, I've been watching which sectors have begin to perform the worst such as utilities, REITS, and especially consumer staples. Recently, Phillip morris had a huge sell off which equal to approximately 8% of the index. In addition to tobacco stocks struggling, the overall sector as whole has underperformed and has broken a "lower low" which signals a correction in the index. Currently we are tested the last support area before the index could really fall off the chart. My risk is of course the amount "I pay" for the option which 5$-5.10$ and am expecting atleast 1% move of the stock in order to break even. However, I could see another 10% correction and a possibility of a bearish trend beginning. With this in mind, the risk to reward ratio is about 1:1 and I hope to be making atleast 50% return and ultimately 100% in the longterm. If you are long the stock market, this is a cheap way to hedge the market buy selling one of the weaker sectors as bond yields increase.
Thanks for reading, and leave a comment. Sorry for the sound issue, its a little fuzzy but overall okay.
INVESTOR OUTLOOK, DEFENSIVE OR OFFENSIVE?We are still in a pullback area in the SPX , and we are very close to lows . That prompted me to investigate what are people doing , are people long or bearish the SPX. With further investigation, This ratio shows that a sector rotation out of Staples into energy is not underway , far from it. I hence think that the lows in the SPX are going to hold.
US Consumer Staples Sector: Trend Reversal ImminentThe primary uptrend is coming to end; divergence and slacking indicators all point to consolidation at a minimum and probably a trend reversal. Exit-long is the least investors should consider. Depending on developments around the 53.05-area investors can also study potential shorts within the sector or short the sector as a whole.
Down side potential is decent: 50.40 and 48.70 form the first pivots and projection respectively.