NVDA – Breakout or Pullback Setup? Nov. 20 Trade Plan1-Hour Outlook (Main Bias)
NVDA broke out of a multi-day descending channel and pushed straight into the 195.50–196 zone, which previously acted as heavy resistance on the 1-hour chart. The impulse was strong, reclaiming several key structure levels in one move.
1H Structure
* NVDA printed a strong bullish BOS after breaking the channel trendline.
* Price is currently consolidating near 195.95, right under the 200 psychological level.
* Momentum remains strong, with MACD expanding upward after a fresh crossover.
* Stochastic is elevated but not rolling over yet. Buyers still in control.
1H Key Levels
Breakout trigger: above 196
Upside targets:
* 200.00 (major psychological + GEX resistance)
* 202.50–203 (thin liquidity zone)
Support zone: 187.50–188
Bears gain control only below: 182.80
1H Trading Idea
Bullish scenario:
If NVDA holds above 192.50–193.00 and reclaims 196 cleanly, momentum favors an extension toward the 200–202.50 zone. Break above 200 opens the next leg of gamma pressure.
Bearish scenario:
Valid only if price rejects 196 with a full-body reversal candle. Downside magnets sit at 192 and 188.
15-Minute Outlook (Execution Timeframe)
NVDA is consolidating after a strong vertical impulse. Price formed a BOS on the 15M and is now pulling back slightly into the minor supply zone at 195–196.
15M Structure
* Clean sequence: CHoCH → BOS → impulsive breakout → consolidation.
* EMAs are stacked bullish and acting as dynamic support.
* The recent FVG at 191.50–192.20 held well, confirming bullish continuation structure.
15M Trading Setups
Bullish entry:
* Prefer retrace into 193.80–194.30
* Look for bullish engulfing or a wick rejection
* Targets: 196 → 200
* Stop: below 192.70
Breakout entry:
* Enter on clean break of 196
* Stop below last swing low
* Targets: 198.50 → 200–202
Bearish scalp:
* Only valid if NVDA repeatedly rejects 196
* Target: 193.50
* Invalid if price breaks 196
GEX Confirmation
Based on the NVDA GEX chart:
Bullish Signals
* Highest positive NETGEX sits at 200, creating a natural upside magnet.
* Large call walls at 196, 200, 202.50, supporting upward drift.
* Positive GEX blocks (GEX9, GEX10) align with continuation toward 200–203.
* Put walls are weak above 188 — little downside defense for bears.
Interpretation
GEX strongly favors upside continuation as long as NVDA remains above 192–193.
A break above 196 triggers dealer hedging, pushing price toward 200.
Options Trading Plan (GEX-Based)
Bullish Plan
If price breaks above 196 with momentum:
Contracts to consider:
* 197.5C
* 200C
Targets:
* 198.50 → 200 → 202.50
Reason:
Above 196, market makers are forced to hedge upward, accelerating price toward the strongest GEX cluster at 200.
Bearish Plan
Only valid if NVDA rejects 196 with strong selling:
Contracts to consider:
* 193P
* 190P
Targets:
* 193.50 → 192.00
Reason:
Below 193, GEX becomes lighter and liquidity flows toward 188.
Final Bias for Nov. 20
NVDA is showing strong bullish structure after breaking the descending channel.
As long as price holds above 192–193, the probability of testing 196 and pushing toward 200 remains high.
Bearish setups only activate with a clean rejection at 196.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always perform independent research and manage risk appropriately.
