$5 Entry: A Bittysweet Symphony(originally written October 2023)
Bitcoin has dominated headlines iover the last decade+. From a logically defying concept crafted by Satoshi Nakamoto, to a collectively embraced path towards the future, the world’s first cryptocurrency is undeniable. Unless you’re Warren Buffet — or Horus.
From humble beginnings at $0.01, at its fairly recent all-time high near $68K, Bitcoin increased in value by 6,192,134 times. Thats 4406 times more than the SPX’s all-time growth and 64,451 times more than Gold’s (based on chart history available from year 1834).
Considering its historical dominance and the forward looking perspective from many of the world’s most renown investors, you’d think (and most do) that the momentum won’t ever cease.
The explosive growth has been amazing and the fear of missing out is not only present for individuals, but also for global organizations and national government administrations too.
As an Elliottician, after applying Elliott Wave Theory to Bitcoin’s all-time wave structure, I am a bit more cautious than the majority. These are some details I consider to be facts:
1) Bitcoin is not in an impulsive wave structure.
2) Bullish (upside) corrective waves commonly retrace to the 0.38, 0.618 or 0.786 fib level.
3) Since 2013, BTC’s Relative Strength Index has been in constant decline.
As for my near and long term BTCUSD projections, I expect a couple of climatic things to happen:
1) Bitcoin achieves a new all-time high near the next halving in 2024.
2) Bitcoin fails to sustain the $100,000 price mark (if it even reaches that high).
4) Bitcoin makes a return below $10.
Bitcoin’s wave structure is very similar to Luna Classic’s. The only differences I’ve been able to see is that Luna was in a regular zig-zag (ABC) formation and Bitcoin’s wave formation is very very likely a double zig-zag (WXY). Both forms are corrective and generally result in a very deep retracement.
