Repeating Same LTF Pattern on HTF?Here's an idea I haven't seen proposed. What if we're repeating the same pattern we saw between approx 40-50k, on a higher timeframe and between 50-85k.
Just like the blue pattern before it, it starts with a new high being made, then a low well above old highs, then a lower high followed by a higher low, then a higher high followed by a 2nd higher low (slightly lower than the previous higher low), finally a 3rd and significantly higher high followed be a strong lower low but still above old highs prior to the new high.
Let's see if it happens again!
Market insights
$5 Entry: A Bittysweet Symphony(originally written October 2023)
Bitcoin has dominated headlines iover the last decade+. From a logically defying concept crafted by Satoshi Nakamoto, to a collectively embraced path towards the future, the world’s first cryptocurrency is undeniable. Unless you’re Warren Buffet — or Horus.
From humble beginnings at $0.01, at its fairly recent all-time high near $68K, Bitcoin increased in value by 6,192,134 times. Thats 4406 times more than the SPX’s all-time growth and 64,451 times more than Gold’s (based on chart history available from year 1834).
Considering its historical dominance and the forward looking perspective from many of the world’s most renown investors, you’d think (and most do) that the momentum won’t ever cease.
The explosive growth has been amazing and the fear of missing out is not only present for individuals, but also for global organizations and national government administrations too.
As an Elliottician, after applying Elliott Wave Theory to Bitcoin’s all-time wave structure, I am a bit more cautious than the majority. These are some details I consider to be facts:
1) Bitcoin is not in an impulsive wave structure.
2) Bullish (upside) corrective waves commonly retrace to the 0.38, 0.618 or 0.786 fib level.
3) Since 2013, BTC’s Relative Strength Index has been in constant decline.
As for my near and long term BTCUSD projections, I expect a couple of climatic things to happen:
1) Bitcoin achieves a new all-time high near the next halving in 2024.
2) Bitcoin fails to sustain the $100,000 price mark (if it even reaches that high).
4) Bitcoin makes a return below $10.
Bitcoin’s wave structure is very similar to Luna Classic’s. The only differences I’ve been able to see is that Luna was in a regular zig-zag (ABC) formation and Bitcoin’s wave formation is very very likely a double zig-zag (WXY). Both forms are corrective and generally result in a very deep retracement.
Bitcoin - Could this be a Left Translated Market Cycle?There has been a lot of speculation that this current Bitcoin market cycle could end as a left translated cycle. This is most likely because Bitcoin surpassed the previous all-time high almost 1 month before the halving. This is the first time in Bitcoins short history that has happened. But, does this alone indicate that this will be an accelerated market cycle?
From the bear market low on November 21st, 2022, it took only 16 months for BTC to set a new all-time high. Looking back though, during the 2011 to 2015 market cycle it took only 15 months from the bear market low for BTC to set a new all-time high. But, even though this cycle was abbreviated at just 3 years 2 months long the peak still occurred just after the 2 year mark.
As you can see by the chart, the new all-time high was set after the halving but this is due to the halving occurring only 376 days after the previous bear market low. Looking at the 2015 to 2018 market cycle, the 2018 to 2022 market cycle, and the current market cycle you can see that the halvings occurred 543 days, 514 days, and 515 days after the previous bear market low.
So, I guess the point I am trying to make is even though the new all-time high that was set on March 14th occurred much sooner than in the previous two cycles that alone doesn't mean that this will result in a left translated cycle. If we look at the elapsed time from the Nov. 2022 bear market low to the halving that just occurred it aligns more closely to the last two market cycles. Both of these market cycles were classic right translated 4-year cycles.
An explaination for the early new all-time high could be due to the hype sorounding the spot Bitcoin ETFs as well as the subsequent trading of them. I'm not going to pretend to know where Bitcoin is going to go from here. It's very possible that we could end up with a market cycle that is completely different than the previous cycles.
At some point I believe that the changing investor demographics will alter the market cycles. Another influence on the market cycles could be macroeconomic forces. Just this morning the May CPI data was released and came out lower than expected. As a result Bitcoin after being down 3.2% yesterday is now up over 3.5% today. But, even though BTC is up big today it is still stuck in the consolidation range and the $72k level still remains a formidable resistance that has rejected BTC five times over the last three months.
But, as of now I am leaning towards this market cycle continuing the trend of the last two as a typical 4-year cycle. That is until I see more evidence that something has changed. If this market cycle is to follow the timing of the previous two I would either expect a prolonged period of range bound price action, lasting into the fall. Or a prolonged period of slowly rising prices lasting into the fall leading to the eventual blast off.
Either way I remain extremely bullish long term and look forward to what lies ahead.
Bitcoin and the end of the bull cycle!At this moment, many might start reading this article thinking that the bull cycle is over, but that’s not the reason I’m writing. My intention here is to provide you with advance notice of the temporal zones where you should seriously consider realizing profits from your hold portfolios and even be prepared to look at selling in the market.
In the last cycles, this pattern has repeated, allowing us to replicate the projections.
In the first cycle back in 2012, after marking the bottom and the Halving, the price moved parabolically in two structures: the first, marked in aqua green, represents the post-Halving effect; the second, in red, represents the full euphoria effect.
This behavior repeated in the 2016 cycle and also in the 2019 cycle:
What’s most interesting is that, in all cases, the time between the market bottom and the Halving is exactly the same as the time between the Halving and the market top.
This is what I want to share with you: the points where the temporal zone suggests a possible inflection of movement or phase change.
This shows us that until mid-March 2025, we will be experiencing the post-Halving phase, and after this phase, we will enter the euphoria zone. The possible inflection point of the cycle should occur around mid-September 2025.
This study is based on analyzing the Fibonacci temporal zone and projecting the cycle based on symmetrical time behaviors from the past. This is not a guarantee that we will follow the exact same trajectory, but rather an additional basis for you to measure your exposure time to the cycle.
Bitcoin Halving Timeline- The next bitcoin halving is expected to occur in April 2024, when the number of blocks hits 740,000. It will see the block reward fall from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins.
- this is a different view of using Bollinger Bands, when Bands are drastically falling, Bullrun is starting.
- i took as timelines the older bullruns. ( 21 bars - 25 bars )
- Take it easy, logic is still a theory.
- Patience will reward.
Happy Tr4Ding !
BTC Power Law Analysis: Convergence of Slope Models
This chart shows two sets of bands overlaid. The first, with blue bands and white central line, tracksBitcoin's price movements through predefined values associated with the BTC Power Law. The code I used came from @savingface on Discord, where it was scripted to adheres closely to Bitcoin Power Law slope observed by Giovanni Santostasi, and written about on Medium. It overlays a set of bands derived from moving averages that take in all of BTC's historical price data.
Notably, when the x axis is also made logarithmic, the Power Law curve becomes linear. It is a limitation of TradingView that only the y axis can be viewed in logarithmic mode, so we are unable to appreciate the logarithmically linear growth of BTC in this chart.
Interestingly, as the bands based on moving averages become smoother with lengthening history of Bitcoin, we see a highly evident convergence between the BTC Power Law bands and the slope derived from moving averages. This highlights an increasing consistency between both models that strengthens confidence in the BTC Power Law slope as a predictor.
Traders can leverage this information to identify significant levels in market expansion and contraction. At the time of writing, we appear to be breaching the central line of each slope. My prediction is that we move up a full two lines, but at least one, during the continuation of the current bull market.
How to outpace inflation with this 1 cool trickBuy bitcoin.
Shoutout to @TechDev_52
I wanted to re-create his chart with my thoughts. Please give him a like and follow.
Only thing worth noting about these BBands is it uses EMA instead of SMA, and 50 settings instead of default. Still a great way to catch a general trend and pattern.
fib target of ~360K
Idk much about TA beyond drawing lines and stuff but...Does this Fib look promising? I'm reminded of a post by this person in 2022
x.com
The same person who supposedly predicted Queen Elizabeth's death 216 days before she died.
I learned that this person could also very likely be a complete fraud.
But we're approaching sub $80k and this fib is hitting many points.
Remember idk wtf I'm talking about.
Crypto is in a bull run now. Following with Bank of America...As you can see, Bitcoin is in a bull run because the Banks are pumping crypto. I mean if you're a banker, you know crypto is better than the dollar so why not, right? From the looks of it, bankers are going to push the economy forward for the next year before cooling off again, maybe stopping around October of 2025. Maybe a few months before or after, who knows. It's really up to them to decide when the markets should cool. Must be good to be a banker.
Bitcoin May 2023 Forecast - 12 Months of AccumulationThe chart is telling me that we could see the next 6-9 months slowly grind lower as the global economy enters recession. This will be a great opportunity to scale into long positions slowly for Bitcoin as we gear up for 2024-2025 bull run. If you can get an average price between FWB:21K - FWB:25K you will be nice and cozy in your position for the next two years. Upside target is between $100K-$250K for this next bull run. Please manage your risk carefully as this is truly the only thing that you can control.
Best of luck.
Blorenz






















