E mini S&P 500 weekly outlook and HTF reference pointsCME_MINI:ES1!
Expansion levels on ES. Will approach on a day to day basis with the daily closures
Trade ideas
Monday could set the tone for the weekMonday's price structure in the S&P 500 daily chart could set the tone for the rest of the week. Expected behavior from Monday is an inside day which means it trades inside the Ranger Friday the higher. The next objective to the upside is 6770.
The end - 2026 Financial panicSince 2300, I’ve marked a zone and made a personal commitment: no matter what happens in the market, when this zone is approached, I will begin reducing my exposure and carefully exit all financial markets—with extreme caution and tight stop losses.
Yesterday, I received an alert I never expected to see. It signaled the approach of the zone I identified back in 2021 as the escape point—where major crashes are likely imminent and the urge to invest must be resisted.
This zone aligns with the 0.786 trend-based Fibonacci level from the 2009 bottom to the 2020 peak, as well as the April 2020 bottom. It also coincides with the 2.618 and 3.618 Fibonacci extensions from the 2007–2010 cycle, and the 3.618 trend Fibonacci from the 2002–2009 cycle. But that’s not all.
According to Gann’s Square of 9, if you examine closely, you’ll notice that whenever the trend reaches one of its primary or secondary angles since the 2009 bottom, it consistently triggers a significant drop. The end cycle at the 360° angle corresponds to 7926—perfectly aligning with all the previously mentioned Fibonacci zones.
And for those skeptical of technical analysis, consider this: the upcoming year, 2026, is a pivotal year in the Samuel Benner chart developed in 1875 to identify periods of financial disorder. Benner’s chart indicated when to buy, when to sell, and when to expect chaos. Remarkably, it has accurately forecasted major financial crashes over the past 150 years—including the Great Depression, the Dot-Com bust, and the 2020 COVID crash. According to this chart, selling during the crash year and re-entering post-crash has historically led to profitable outcomes with a +-2 Years at a 87.5% accuracy.
When you combine all these signals, it feels reckless not to take them seriously—especially since this marks the end of a cycle measured from 2009. That’s how significant it is.
To those who dismiss technical analysis, this may sound like smoke and mirrors. But for those who’ve seen its power firsthand, the sheer number of confluences here is too substantial to ignore. If I know such big crash may happen - I would be happy to wait 1-2 years on cash and take opportunity of big red markets to buy.
Curious to hear your thoughts on this.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setups for Thu (Nov 20th)Market Bias Analysis
The current short-term bias is constructively bullish, yet it remains contingent on upcoming events. Recent momentum has been bolstered by Nvidia's exceptional earnings report and a significant intraday reversal in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES). As long as the 6,670–6,680 range holds during any pullbacks, the path of least resistance appears to be upward. It is important to note that the broader daily trend is still bullish, unless we see a decisive breach below the key demand zone of 6,520–6,510 in the ES.
Market Overview
In a notable shift following a four-day decline, today's trading session exhibited a renewed bullish sentiment. The E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) printed a robust green daily candle, bouncing off a low of approximately 6,622.00 yesterday to close near 6,740.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart reveals that the recent selloff has established a lower high without breaking the prior significant higher low. The reaction low remains comfortably above the daily 1.272 extension cluster situated around 6,521.25. On the 4-hour chart, the price action has transitioned from a pattern of lower lows to a new higher low, currently pushing into the Price Quotient Median (PQM) and Price Quotient High (PQH) band, just below previous 4-hour supply levels. Observing the 1-hour chart, today's trading reflected a definitive trend day upward, characterized by a consistent series of higher lows and higher highs, culminating the session near the 1-hour 1.272 Fibonacci extension at 6,743.75.
Macroeconomic factors played a crucial role in this market turnaround, particularly after Nvidia reported stunning Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations, generating approximately $57 billion in revenue. The company’s strong AI-driven outlook and positive after-hours performance alleviated concerns that the recent downturn in technology stocks signified the onset of a broader unwinding of the AI bubble. This development contributed to a rally in index futures as the session drew to a close.
Nonetheless, the overarching theme remains one of valuation pressures and interest rate concerns. Despite breaking a four-session losing streak, market participants are poised for tomorrow’s data, which will be pivotal in shaping the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory moving forward.
Scheduled Events (Tomorrow – Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025)
Tomorrow’s docket is heavy and directly relevant for ES:
• 8:30 a.m. ET – September Employment Situation (delayed jobs report)
The September nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, postponed by the government shutdown, are finally released. This is the only full jobs report the Fed will have before its December meeting, and markets are treating it as a major verdict on the labour market.
• Other U.S. data (during the morning/early afternoon)
Various calendars flag building permits / housing data, regional manufacturing (e.g., Philadelphia Fed), and existing home sales clustered through the U.S. session – all secondary to the jobs report but able to add fuel if they confirm or contradict the labour story.
• Fed speakers / meetings
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has a scheduled fireside chat around midday (12:40 p.m. ET).
• The Fed also has a closed Board meeting at 1:15 p.m. ET and a two-day Cleveland Fed financial-stability conference that can generate headlines.
Net: the jobs report is the main event; Fed comments will colour the move rather than drive it on their own.
Setups (A++ Concepts)
These are two high-conviction, rule-style ideas you can plug into your own framework. Price levels are exact from your charts.
A++ Setup 1 – Continuation Long from Value Pocket
Entry trigger concept:
Look for a sweep into the chosen band (e.g., wick into 6,690–6,695 or down into 6,663–6,668) followed by a strong 15m/5m bullish close back above 6,700. That shows buyers defending value and rejecting a deeper rotation into S3.
Risk / invalidation:
Structural invalidation if ES closes the hour below 6,652.50 (Y-POC) and cannot reclaim 6,668. In practice, a tight stop can sit just under 6,652.00 if entering from 6,690–6,705, or under 6,645.00 if using the deeper S2 pocket.
Targets:
• TP1: 6,743.75 (1H 1.272)
• TP2: 6,777.00 (1H 1.618)
• TP3: 6,813.50 (1H 2.0)
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A++ Setup 2 – Short Fade from 1H Extension Cluster
Entry zone:
Primary sell pocket: 6,777.00–6,813.50
(1H 1.618 to 2.0 extension cluster.)
Risk / invalidation:
Structural invalidation above 6,825–6,830 (clear 1H/4H acceptance beyond the 2.0 extension).
A practical stop can sit around 6,828.00 if entering inside the band.
Targets:
• TP1: 6,743.75 (1H 1.272 / prior extension)
• TP2: 6,683.50–6,690.00 (NYPM high / S1 top)
• TP3: 6,659.00–6,664.75 (VWAP/value pocket S2)
Narrative:
If Nvidia’s beat triggers a euphoric push straight into the upper fib level but the tape immediately rejects that strength, the market is saying “good news already in the price.” This setup expresses the view that the real gravity is lower, back toward value and potentially into S3 if macro data disappoint.
NFP is Back! Here's how to map out your playbook with statsHOW TO USE NFP RANGE STATS TO PREPARE YOUR PLAYBOOK
There has not been a Non-Farm Payroll release since Friday 5 September 2025 . Due to the government shutdown the September report that was originally set for Friday 3 October was postponed. It will finally be released on Thursday 20 November - a 48 day delay. With uncertainty around the labour data higher than usual it helps to know what “normal” looks like for ES S&P Futures. The table shows historical ranges after the 08:30 ET release on a 30-minute chart: 1 bar (30mins), 2 bars (60mins) 3 bars (90mins), 4 bars (2hrs), 8 bars (4hrs) and 15 bars (up to ~16:00 ET). The stats are based on the last 21 NFP releases (approx 2-years).
👉 If you think this would be useful as a script you can run yourself let me know (boost and drop a comment) and if there's enough interest I'll see if I can publish something.
WHAT THE COLUMNS MEAN
Avg - the typical move for that window based on past NFPs
StdDev - the variability around that average
Avg + 1 StdDev and Avg - 1 StdDev - quick upper and lower guardrails for a “normal” day
Min / Max - historical extremes in the sample
WAYS TO USE IT
1) Set guardrails for price discovery
Use Avg + 1 StdDev as a first “stretch” expectation for the window you trade. If price pushes beyond that level early you know we are outside normal and can adapt position size and expectations.
2) Pre-plan targets and emergency exits
Before 08:30 ET map a base scenario. Example for ES: if the 30m Avg post-release is X then a first take-profit can sit near X and a stretch target near Avg + 1 StdDev . Place an emergency stop beyond the Avg - 1 StdDev line if fading the first move.
3) Size positions to volatility
Translate the Avg 30m range into ticks or points and size so that a typical NFP bar does not exceed your defined risk. If your stats say the first 30m averages 9 points on ES do not run a size that cannot survive a 9-12 point swing.
4) Choose a playbook by window
1 bar (30m) - breakout or first-reaction mean-reversion
2-4 bars (60-120m) - continuation or reversal probabilities stabilise around the Avg envelope
8-15 bars - when the full session range is already at or beyond Avg + 1 StdDev be cautious chasing late moves
With the report 48 days late the probability of surprise is elevated. Go into the print with your ranges pre-mapped and your position sizing tied to those Avg and Avg ± StdDev bands. Clarity beats adrenaline.
👉 REMINDER:
If you think this would be useful as a script you can run yourself let me know (boost and drop a comment) and if there's enough interest I'll see if I can publish something.
ES 4h TF, LongAlright, here’s the call. I’m expecting a retracement sooner or later.
On the 1-hour timeframe, the ideal day-trading entry has already passed, so for now, I’m anticipating the price to tap or slightly extend beyond the blue line before pulling back toward one of the yellow zones.
Now, this is where it gets interesting. Both yellow zones offer potential long setups:
The first zone aligns with the VWAP, which often acts as strong dynamic support.
The second zone sits just below a price gap, meaning the market might fill that imbalance before continuing higher.
As long as the fundamentals remain stable, I’ll be watching for confirmation to go long from either of those two areas.
If I decide to take this trade, I’ll update and specify the exact entry point — but for now, patience is key. Let’s wait for that retracement first.
NY SESSION STRUCTURE UPDATEES continues to hold an inside-day structure, with price contained inside yesterday’s range.
This keeps the market in a balancing regime under MSM — compression, not trend.
The key level today is the inside-day break.
Until price resolves either side of the range, there is no confirmed directional intent.
The behaviour is straightforward:
– Liquidity is building at both edges
– Momentum remains muted
– No side is showing initiative
– Structure is coiling, not expanding
Operator approach:
Ignore early movement.
The valid move only appears once the inside-day resolves and behaviour confirms expansion.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Wed (Nov 19th)Market Analysis: A Shift in Momentum for ES
In today's market, the daily chart for the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) reveals a notable shift in momentum, characterized by a sequence of price action that signals a potential downtrend. Previously, we observed a high, followed by a lower high, and today's movement has decisively broken through the last remaining support at the higher-low shelf. This change comes after a rejection from the recent lower-high zone, situated just below the 6,900 mark, followed by a retreat through the crucial 6,700 threshold. What initially appeared to be a bullish uptick is now consolidating into a corrective downswing.
Today's significant drop marks the continuation of this emerging downward trajectory. Prices breached intraday support around 6,675 to 6,700, slid past the prior higher-low region near 6,635, and ultimately settled atop the initial daily demand zone. Notably, the selling volume during this decline expanded compared to previous sessions, underscoring that this movement reflects genuine market participation rather than mere fluctuations.
While the longer-term outlook remains bullish, reflected in the weekly trend, the daily and four-hour charts currently indicate a pronounced short-term downtrend. Key indicators include the formation of a lower high, the breach of the previous higher-low, and a liquidity run to the downside toward the extension cluster. As we move forward, this developing bearish scenario suggests potential for further declines in the coming sessions, though we are positioned within local demand territory, indicating that bounces and two-directional trading are likely in the near term.
Key Resistance Zones
Resistance 1: 6,637
This level represents today’s late-session swing high on the 30-minute chart, denoted as the S-session high (S.H 6,637). It serves as the initial resistance point above the current market price.
Resistance 2: 6,679.75 – 6,687.50
A cluster of highs, with NYAM.H marked at 6,679.75, LO.H at 6,685.75, and NYPM.H at 6,687.50, forms a critical intraday supply pocket. This region represents the primary A++ short zone should the price experience a bounce.
Resistance 3: 6,700 – 6,720
Above the NY session high band, the 4-hour chart highlights a previously broken support shelf and local supply just below 6,720. Any movement back into this area would likely be corrective within the ongoing downswing unless the E-mini S&P can close and hold a daily candle above this range.
Higher-Timeframe Cap:
Any price action remaining below the recent daily lower-high zone—situated near the last significant LH before the drop—maintains a bearish bias for the larger swing. A definitive daily close above this lower-high would be necessary to negate the current short-term downtrend.
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Key Support Zones
Support 1: 6,627.50 and 6,614.75
The AS.L level is printed at 6,627.50, with the NL.L around 6,614.75 on the 30-minute chart. Together, these levels form the initial local support shelf just beneath the current price.
Support 2: 6,606.50 – 6,603.25
Marked by NYPM.L at 6,606.50 and NYAM.L at 6,603.25, this band serves as the next area of resting liquidity from today’s trading sessions. A clean break and sustained move below this range could pave the way for the Fibonacci targets below.
Support 3 (Major Fibonacci Cluster): 6,541.50 – 6,509.00
On the 1-hour chart, the 1.272 Fibonacci level is found at 6,541.50, while the 4-hour chart places it at 6,509.00. The daily chart marks the 1.272 at 6,521.25, creating a significant demand box from approximately 6,541 down to 6,509, with 6,521 serving as a mid-pivot. This is the pivotal "bounce or break" zone.
Support 4 (Deeper Extension Pocket): 6,501.75 – 6,458.00
The 1-hour chart identifies the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 6,501.75 and the 2.0 extension at 6,458.00. The 4-hour chart aligns the 1.618 at 6,429.25 and the 2.0 at 6,341.50, with the daily chart placing the 1.618 at 6,418.00 and the 2.0 around 6,304.00. The initial focus for tomorrow is the 6,502–6,458 region. Should the 6,541–6,509 band fail, this area becomes a strong magnet where a more pronounced short-covering bounce is likely.
The definitive structural line on the downside is the cumulative daily 1.618–2.0 cluster, ranging from approximately 6,418 down to 6,304. A decline to this range could signify a major correction leg rather than a mere shallow pullback.
A++ SETUP 1 — REJECTION SHORT FROM NY HIGH BAND
Trigger:
15m: candle wicks into 6,680–6,688 and closes back below about 6,675.
5m/1m: a failed attempt to push higher (lower high) after that rejection.
Entry:
Aggressive: enter short 6,678–6,682 after the 15m rejection close and 1m fails to make new highs.
Conservative: limit sell in 6,680–6,685 on a controlled retest from below.
Stop (hard invalidation):
Around 6,698.00 above the band and intraday highs (about 16–20 points of risk if filled 6,678–6,682).
Targets:
TP1: 6,637.00 (session swing high). From 6,680 entry with 6,698 stop ≈ 2.3R.
TP2: 6,606.50 – 6,603.25 (NYPM.L / NYAM.L shelf), ≈ 4R from 6,680 entry.
TP3: 6,541.50 – 6,521.25 (top of fib demand cluster), campaign-style extension.
A++ SETUP 2 — EXHAUSTION LONG FROM FIB CLUSTER DEMAND
Trigger:
15m: price trades below 6,530, tags 6,521–6,509, then closes back above about 6,530 (wick through, body back up).
5m/1m: a higher low forms above roughly 6,520 after that reclaim; sellers fail to push back below the cluster.
Entry:
Aggressive: 6,525–6,535 on the first higher low on 1m/5m after the 15m reclaim of 6,530.
Conservative: limit buy near 6,525 on a controlled retest into the top of the cluster after the first reaction.
Stop (hard invalidation):
Around 6,497.00 under the bottom of the cluster and recent swing low (≈ 30–38 points of risk if entered 6,525–6,535).
Targets:
TP1: 6,595–6,600 (broken structure and local VWAP zone). From 6,530 entry with 6,497 stop ≈ 2R.
TP2: 6,637.00 (S-session high and first major resistance).
TP3: 6,679.75 – 6,687.50 (NYAM.H / LO.H / NYPM.H band), where a bounce can turn into a full squeeze.
Upcoming Economic Indicators
For tomorrow's trading session (Wednesday, U.S. time), traders should keep an eye on several key economic releases:
- At 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. will release Housing Starts and Building Permits for October, along with import/export price indices. These figures are vital for gauging growth, especially after a series of subdued permits and erratic starts.
- At 10:30 AM ET, the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, alongside crude inventory data, is expected to influence energy markets and broader risk sentiment.
- Later in the afternoon, markets will be attentive to FOMC minutes and remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, both of which could impact rate-cut expectations based on the overall tone relative to recent communications.
Good luck !!!
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Tue (Nov 18th)ES experienced a notable decline, concluding the day with a sharp downturn but managed a late-session rebound off a significant demand zone. At this juncture, it appears to be a robust corrective phase within an overarching uptrend, with a reasonable probability of a bounce or a range-bound trading day ahead, barring any unexpected developments from data releases or commentary from Federal Reserve speakers.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, November 18, 2025, the economic calendar is unusually packed for a Tuesday, as various U.S. data are set to be released following delays caused by a government shutdown. Key indicators to watch that could influence ES during the New York session include the import and export price indexes for October at 8:30 AM ET, industrial production and capacity utilization figures also for October at 9:15 AM ET, and the NAHB housing market index for November at 10:00 AM ET.
Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials, including Barr, Waller, Williams, and Kashkari, are scheduled to speak throughout the day. The market is particularly attuned to their insights regarding the likelihood of another rate cut, especially in light of the recently released October FOMC minutes and this week’s jobs report.
Given the abundance of potential market-moving information, I would consider the period from 9:15 to 10:15 AM ET as a critical window for "headline risk" tomorrow.
The recent market decline can largely be attributed to macroeconomic factors:
The S&P 500 cash index ended the day down approximately 0.9%, with the Dow falling around 1.2% and the Nasdaq declining by about 0.8%. This pullback has moved the indices further away from their all-time highs established last month.
The selling pressure was particularly acute among mega-cap technology stocks and the AI sector. Major players such as Nvidia, Apple, Palantir, and AMD faced heavy trading as investors began to question whether the recent surge in tech stocks, driven by AI enthusiasm, had outpaced underlying fundamentals ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release on Wednesday.
Market sentiment was further dampened by a noteworthy prediction from Stifel's chief strategist, who suggested a potential 5% drop in the S&P 500, targeting a level around 6,350 in the coming months. This outlook was based on concerns regarding high valuations and uncertainties surrounding the Fed’s future policy as delayed economic data begins to materialize.
Interestingly, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped slightly towards ~4.13% , indicating that today’s selloff was more of a de-risking/profit-taking maneuver specific to equities rather than a reflection of widespread risk aversion typically signaled by bond market movements.
From a technical perspective on the ES futures:
Intraday trading patterns reflected a continuation of last week’s trend of lower highs and lower lows. Prices faltered near the 6,800–6,805 mark during the overnight session before entering a clear downtrend through the morning. The volume accelerated during the late-morning selloff, ultimately reaching a low around the 6,658–6,660 band, which coincides with established daily demand zones.
Following this drop, we observed a pronounced shift in behavior: significant buying volume surged at the lows, leading to a rejected price at that demand zone and a controlled short-covering rally back above 6,690, approaching the 6,700–6,705 range as the day closed. The Nasdaq exhibited a similar trajectory, with a heavy selloff subsequently followed by a recovery.
Structurally, today’s activity reflects:
A strong continuation of downside movement, stemming from last week’s lower-high structure and macro-driven de-risking, culminating in a liquidity flush into a previously identified demand pocket followed by short-covering toward the close.
From a broader perspective, is this the beginning of a genuine downtrend?
On the daily chart, ES remains within a larger uptrend originating from the summer lows. A higher peak above 6,900 was established in late October, with the current pullback representing a decline of approximately 3–4% from that peak. Today's trading reached the 6,650–6,670 support region, which previously served as a vital higher low space, before closing back above it. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over but are beginning to flatten, indicating they are not yet deeply oversold.
In contrast, the shorter-term 4-hour and 1-hour views present a more bearish outlook: a sequence of lower highs has formed, and the retest of prior higher low levels appears to be underway. Short-term moving averages have shifted downward, and 4-hour momentum remains negative, albeit with initial signs of a slight positive divergence compared to new price lows.
In summary:
I interpret this phase as a significant corrective downswing within a larger uptrend rather than the onset of a new bear market. The potential for a more substantial correction exists, particularly if Nvidia’s earnings disappoint or if the run of delayed economic data proves weak. However, the day's trading indicates more of a necessary adjustment rather than the onset of a catastrophic decline, aligning with institutional views that this pullback signifies a "healthy reset" following a robust advance, rather than an indication of a market bubble bursting.
Should ES close below the 6,650 mark on a daily basis and subsequently begin to print lower highs under that level, I would increase my assessment of the risk of a transition into a more enduring downtrend, with targets around the 6,350–6,400 range over the coming weeks, echoing Stifel's projections. For the time being, however, buyers continue to defend this crucial daily support zone.
Key zones to monitor for tomorrow, in the futures market:
I identify the following support zones:
6,658–6,650: This region marks today’s New York PM low and aligns with the prior day’s low. It serves as the first critical intraday support level. As long as ES maintains closes above this area on 1-hour and 4-hour charts, I consider the movement to be a corrective phase rather than a broader downtrend.
S&P 500 Sell Decent zone on lower timeframe to sell. Current Month VPOC, Failure to go higher with Intraday range. Good zone to take short.
ES week 47 (1hr chart)T.A explained -
BackSide (BS)
FrontSide (FS)
Inverse BS (Inv.BS)
Inverse FS (Inv.FS)
BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines.
Monthly timeframe is color pink
weekly grey
daily is red
4hr is orange
1hr is yellow
15min is blue
5min is green if they are shown.
strength favors the higher timeframe.
2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
ES1 outlookES/NQ Outlook – Bearish Continuation
Bias: Shifted from early Bullish/Neutral to bearish once ES failed to confirm NQ strength. Correlation cracks lined up with the broader sell-off trend.
Macro Sentiment:
Risk sentiment remains shaky — Bitcoin pushing toward 93K,recovering from gov-shutdown and no data releases, and inconsistent tech strength keep pressure on indices. Underlying tone remains defensive.
⸻
Market Structure
• ES failed Friday’s Value High and rotated back below Friday’s POC.
• Now holding under POC, confirming sellers remain in control.
• Last session’s Value Low target still untested → unfinished business below.
⸻
Key Downside Targets
• PDL: 6,778
• Friday VAL: 6,725
• Main unfinished target: 6,666.5 (untouched value level)
⸻
Plan Going Forward
• Bias stays bearish while ES remains below Friday’s value high/poc but seeing interaction with week open.
bullflag breakoutBreakout from a bullflag is confirmed. if this holds could we see retest of highs by month end or possible new ATH?
ES UpdateI'm not sure if the algos are doing the pump and dump. RSI and MFI haven't been hitting overbought lately. Seems like there are different algos fighting each other.
In any case, this looks like a bounce because it got oversold, much like the other day (circled). Not sure about gap direction Monday, but I'm carrying a few puts in stuff I expect to go down like GM.
Bouncing lowGood daily structure in the S&P 500 on Friday implies a market that got low enough to find buyers. If buyers are here ideally you would want to see this market closing above 6825 on Monday.
I Broke My Own Rule & Paid $515 for It | Day 70 RecapLost $515 today trading S&P Futures, and it was 100% on me.
After promising yesterday that I’d trade small, I accidentally entered ES instead of MES overnight — and that mistake cost me $800 in minutes. The rest of the day was a slow crawl back from that emotional hit.
It’s a painful reminder that discipline > direction. The market wasn’t the problem — my execution was.
Above 6840 stays bullish, below 6815 turns bearish.
We’ll see if this selloff stabilizes or extends into week close.
ES - hourly chart Monthly boxes are pink
Weekly boxes in grey
they frame the price action and show high, low and median ranges.
using a fib based trend tool to find targets to the upside.
T.A explained -
BackSide (BS)
FrontSide (FS)
Inverse BS (Inv.BS)
Inverse FS (Inv.FS)
BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines.
Monthly timeframe is color pink
weekly grey
daily is red
4hr is orange
1hr is yellow
15min is blue
5min is green if they are shown.
strength favors the higher timeframe.
2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
It looks so gloomyWhat I’m Watching:
Reaction to the trendline on the next retest
Whether volume confirms a true bounce or a breakdown
Price behavior as it re-approaches the highlighted green zone, which has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance
Trendline Support hitPrice has pulled back into a key technical zone and is now testing a long-term rising trendline that has held multiple times throughout the past several weeks. This trendline has acted as a structural support area, aligning with prior swing lows and validating the broader uptrend structure.
Today’s decline pushed ES directly into this support, and the reaction here will likely determine the directional bias for the next session.
What I’m Watching:
Reaction to the trendline on the next retest
Whether volume confirms a true bounce or a breakdown
Price behavior as it re-approaches the highlighted green zone, which has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance
If we close under 6680 today, All is lost and we will drop a lot more.
ES - November 14th - Daily Trade PlanNovember 14th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:45am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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You can read the trade plan from yesterday and see that we had a couple of quick flush and reclaims at the levels outlined, but we did not see any follow through to take us higher. That was our first big red day in a while and as I have stated many times that when price is flushing down, you DO NOT step in the way and try to pick bottoms. Let price reclaim a core level and let it accept that level by 4-5pts and then enter as you see structure building.
I wrote yesterday on my note at 3pm - We are coming into the 0.618 retracement of November low to high that is at 6747. This could be a low that produces the short squeeze into the end of the day. IF price does not close above 6765, we will probably have to test 6706 then 6654 in the coming days. PPI tomorrow at 8:30am and I expect more volatility. Price has to reclaim 6890 to keep price moving to ATH's. IF we close below 6654 this week, it would be bearish and could represent a broader pull back in the coming weeks/months. When price sells off like it has today, we will get a squeeze. Just don't know when.
We did get a 30pt bounce at 6747, closed the day at 6761 and price was a magnet to the resistance of 6775. We lost yesterday's low after the European open and we have been moving lower and are currently at 6713 in the overnight session.
I have mentioned many times that with such a strong sell off, we will get an equally strong squeeze. Since we have PPI at 8:30am, we could get that squeeze today. My job is not to guess when that will happen, but to take a trade one the recovery of a strong level that can help price squeeze higher.
Key Levels Today -
1. Flush and reclaim of 6713 (Current Low as I type this)
2. Reclaim of 6731
3. Reclaim of 6746 (Yesterday's low and highest quality level)
Below we have the weekly low of 6691-95 or 6654. Any flush of these levels and reclaim should give us a very strong squeeze similar to last week's Friday flush!
Patience will be key today and IF price finds a strong low today, we will see it and need to react in real-time.
I will post an update around 10am EST
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White Levels are previous day's session High/Low
Market Crashed — I Stayed Calm & Made $338 | Day 69 RecapMade $338.44 today trading S&P Futures on a day where almost everything was red.
The market opened with a bearish structure, and even without big headlines, selling pressure stayed strong all morning.
I decided to wait for the 6750 zone — a strong technical support — and caught a clean dead cat bounce from there.
This session reminded me that sometimes, less is more. Trade small, trade smart, and don’t let overconfidence creep in after a winning streak.
Above 6850 = bullish, below 6825 = bearish.
I’ll be watching for follow-through if we retest support again.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups, for Fri (Nov 14th)
Today’s session revealed a marked risk-off sentiment as the market began to discipline leading sectors, notably large-cap tech, AI, semiconductors, and high-beta growth stocks. This correction coincided with a reassessment of expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing and an environment defined by unequal economic data in the wake of the record shutdown.
Despite the abrupt decline, the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) remains in a pullback phase within a broader uptrend, still functioning within a weekly premium and supply zone. This movement exhibits characteristics typical of a sharp correction and repositioning rather than the definitive onset of a bear market. Importantly, prices have yet to break below the last significant daily higher-low region, weekly market structure continues to show constructive signs, and the “stress indicators” monitored by institutional investors are elevated but not yet at levels indicative of a crisis.
Dashboard Context
Volatility: Implied volatility surged today, with equity volatility pushing above previously complacent levels, albeit the term structure remains predominantly upward-sloping rather than inverted. This nuance is critical; while funds are investing more for protection and short-term hedges, the volatility landscape does not yet suggest a disorderly liquidation phase.
Options Positioning: The index and overall put/call ratios have transitioned from a state of complacency to caution, reflecting increased demand for hedging. However, levels are not yet extreme enough to signal panic. Skew is elevated, indicating that investors are bidding for downside protection, although it remains within the upper bounds of a normal range. This suggests that while major institutions are leaning into protective strategies and tactical downside plays, the broader market is not universally positioned for a crash.
Breadth: The internal damage today was notable, with decliners outpacing advancers significantly across major exchanges. This shift in breadth oscillators from positive to negative in a single session points to a broad-based distribution rather than a narrow selloff concentrated in a few prominent names. Historically, such internal damage requires several sessions for a market to recover.
Credit and Funding: High-yield spreads have widened modestly from recent lows, and high-yield ETFs have pulled back from their peaks. Nevertheless, there are no current signs of a credit crisis. Spreads remain well within ranges that do not indicate severe stress, and funding markets continue to operate smoothly. Provided that credit conditions stay stable, current equity weakness is likely more reflective of a valuation and positioning reset than systemic risk.
Cross-Asset Risk: The crypto market experienced a sharp selloff, while global equity indices broadly fell. This behavior confirms a classic cross-asset risk-off scenario, as investors reduced exposure to the highest-beta, most speculative areas while simultaneously de-leveraging from U.S. equity leaders. Conversely, traditional defensive stocks and segments of quality value showed relative resilience, a behavior consistent with a managed de-risking rather than an all-encompassing liquidation.
In summary, the dashboard indicates a shift from “overbought complacency” to a higher-volatility, risk-off environment. However, we have yet to enter a full-scale, credit-driven bear market. This context is essential for interpreting today’s decline in the E-mini S&P 500.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Structure (Weekly → Daily → 4H → 1H)
Weekly: The E-mini remains in an upward trajectory, printing higher highs and higher lows. Prices have retreated from a premium zone established at recent highs. The current weekly bar suggests rejection, yet critically, price levels remain comfortably above the last key weekly higher low near the 6,000 mark. Weekly momentum, previously overstretched to the upside, is rolling over, signaling a potential cooling phase – likely a period of consolidation or corrective drift rather than immediate trend failure.
Daily: On the daily chart, the ES has formed a distinct upper range beneath a weak high. Today’s trading produced a significant red candle, indicating a drop from the upper range back toward its center. The prior swing low around 6,620–6,580 remains intact, but the daily oscillator shows mild bearish divergence relative to the last high – a common occurrence in maturing upswings. This situation conveys the message of “bullish but extended, now in corrective mode,” rather than a definitive shift to a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
4-Hour: The 4-hour structure has entered a short-term downtrend. A lower high was established in the 6,900–6,920 range, leading to an impulsive sell-off toward demand around 6,730–6,700. This selloff exhibited characteristics of liquidation: substantial red candles, minimal counter-rotation, and strong volume. The 4-hour oscillator shows bearish pressure but is beginning to flatten near support, consistent with an early basing attempt after a sharp sell-off, though additional downside remains possible if negative overnight flows persist.
1-Hour: The 1-hour chart portrays today’s price movement as a decisive liquidation wave.
Today's market decline was driven by three converging factors.
First, we saw a mix of valuation adjustments and crowded positioning. Sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and large-cap growth stocks had experienced significant upward momentum. As a result, profit-taking and forced de-leveraging became evident, especially when the largest index components corrected. This simultaneous adjustment made it challenging for the overall index to hold its ground.
Second, the narrative surrounding interest rates and policy has shifted. Recent commentary from the Federal Reserve has adopted a more cautious tone regarding the pace and scale of future interest rate cuts. With inflation remaining above target and some data being impacted by the government shutdown, policymakers appear hesitant to endorse the market's most optimistic expectations for easing. This recalibration towards a "higher for longer" mindset is detrimental to long-duration growth equities and affects the valuations assigned to market leaders.
Third, while the government shutdown has concluded, the subsequent rhythm of the economic calendar has been disrupted. Several critical data releases have been delayed or are now under scrutiny, prompting investors to navigate through somewhat erratic information. In this context, there has been a notable reluctance to take on risk at elevated valuations without clearer data confirmation. Consequently, we are witnessing a trend of de-risking, characterized by a swift rotation from expensive stocks into cash, defensive positions, and protective strategies.
The outcome has been a pronounced selloff, exhibiting broad downside movement and a surge in volatility. Importantly, this occurred without significant turmoil in credit or funding markets, suggesting that we are dealing with a valuation reset rather than a systemic crisis.
Looking ahead, the question arises: Is this the beginning of a more substantial downtrend or merely a temporary flush? From a structural perspective, the market has yet to breach the typical thresholds that signal the onset of a major downtrend. The previous daily higher low remains in place, the weekly uptrend is still intact, and we have not observed the combination of lower highs and lower lows that would signify a broader bearish phase.
Currently, we are witnessing a rejection from a weekly premium/supply zone, with momentum weakening at both daily and weekly levels. Additionally, there is a clear lower high alongside a liquidation move visible on the four-hour chart, which aligns with the expected behavior during the early stages of a significant correction following an extended rally.
As it stands, the prevailing view is that we are experiencing a sharp corrective phase or volatility spike within the upper range of the ongoing uptrend. While the risk of a more profound correction is heightened, particularly if the support range of 6,600 to 6,535 is breached, the current indicators do not yet suggest a completed market top or a fully developed bearish trend.
A genuine trend transition would likely require:
– a decisive break of S3 and a failed retest from below;
– a sustained period of weak breadth rather than a single-day air pocket;
– and, on the macro side, a clear deterioration in credit and funding conditions alongside a persistent inversion of the equity volatility term structure.
At present, those conditions are not fully in place.
Level-KZ Execution Framework for Tomorrow
Asia/London Participation: If overnight trade pushes the ES down into the 6,710–6,680 range and subsequently prints a rejection with a definitive 15-minute close above that zone, consider it a tactical bounce location. This could target a move back toward the 6,770–6,800 region. Given the event risk, participation should be smaller than usual and approached as preparatory rather than primary risk.
PPI Window (08:30–09:15 ET): The initial 15–30 minutes post-PPI release should be regarded as a discovery phase. If the first impulse upward drives the price into R1/R2 but then closes back below 6,780–6,800 with upper wicks and a failure of the 5-minute structure, it sets up a potential short from the underside of the shelf. Targets for this short could be at 6,720 and then 6,680. Conversely, if the initial market reaction results in a drop to S2/S3 that quickly wicks back and closes above that zone on a 15-minute chart, it presents a tactical bounce long toward the 6,740–6,780 area. The decisive 15-minute close after the data release will provide clarity on which side gains control for the session.
NY AM Kill Zone (09:30–11:00 ET): For short positions, the optimal area remains a rejection from 6,780–6,815 after the PPI reaction is digested. A long upper wick and a return close within that range on a 15-minute chart, paired with a failure in the 5-minute attempts to maintain above, supports a short position. Stops should be placed just above the rejection high, with profit targets initially toward 6,720 and subsequently toward 6,680. Conversely, for long opportunities, an ideal scenario involves a constructive reaction from the 6,700–6,660 support band. This would look for a higher low on the 15-minute chart, reclaiming and holding above 6,700, while sellers falter at S1. In this case, stops would belong below the reaction low, targeting 6,770 and 6,810. Standard A-tier protocol applies: anticipate at least 2R to the first target based on a 15-minute-anchored stop, limit attempts per level, and enforce daily risk guardrails.
NY PM Window (13:30–16:00 ET): Should the ES remain constrained between 6,700 and 6,800 by early afternoon, the trade dynamic typically shifts from discovery to mean-reversion. Thus, the afternoon should primarily focus on managing existing positions from the morning rather than initiating new aggressive plays. Fresh entries based on trending strategies should only be considered if there is a clear breakout from the established intraday range, whether below S3 or above R3, accompanied by confirmation.
Big-Picture Takeaway: Fundamentally, today’s decline indicates a reassessment of overly optimistic growth and AI valuations, along with near-term Federal Reserve easing, partly prompted by a complicated post-shutdown data environment. Technically, the ES is retreating from a weekly premium into various support zones while maintaining the core bullish structure. Stress indicators favored by large professional investors—such as volatility, options positioning, breadth, credit, and cross-asset behavior—suggest a serious risk-off event has occurred, but they don't exhibit the persistent stress and credit strain typically seen before a full bear market materializes.
As long as the ES decisively holds above the 6,600–6,535 zone and doesn’t reject that area from below, the higher-probability play in the coming sessions is a volatile corrective range, offering tactical opportunities to sell rallies into resistance and buy deeper, well-defined demand zones—always bearing in mind the heightened volatility and macro event risks on the calendar.
ES Resisted 6,875! What's next & how to catch these playsHi Trading Community,
As I shared in my last video, I was looking for lower prices on November 13, 2025, for ES — and that has now been delivered. Join me as I break down the in-depth reasoning behind this play and what I expect next in the market.
As always, be sure to share your feedback. I’ll be more than happy to respond with my thoughts as we continue to study #OneCandlestickAtATime.
