S&P 500 2030 ForecastFor the S&P 500 I think its fair to put the 2030 projection between two bounds. 8900 lackluster and 12800 outperformance. If it maintains its trajectory some where in the middle it could hit 10,000 by 2029. Its probably better to put a bit more conservative forecast to account for uncertainties.
2030 forecast S&P 10,000
#SnP500
#marketprojection
ISP1! trade ideas
Ready to respondThe S&P 500 daily chart structure implies a market that's ready to respond to fundamental data that will be revealed this week starting with Wednesday. The bias is still firm moved to the upside. However, if the market expectation is not met with interest rates this market could easily break to the downside.
Day 31 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$24 Near Breakeven“I actually started the day rough — down nearly -400 overnight after an oversized short on that early X7 sell signal. That put me close to my stop-loss limit, so I forced myself to wait for 2–3 confirmations before entering again.
By slowing down and focusing only on high-probability trades, I was able to grind my way back to nearly breakeven — closing the day at just -24.
The key lesson? Overleveraging at night cost me what could have been an easy green day. Discipline around size is just as important as reading the signals.”
News Context:
“On the macro side, Bessent said a 25 basis-point cut is already priced in. No surprises there, but it reinforces why the market isn’t reacting much to Fed talk at this point.”
Key Levels for Tomorrow:
“Here’s what I’ll be watching:
Above 6660 = Stay bullish
Below 6645 = Flip bearish
ES (SPX) - Analyses - Key zones - Trade Setups for Tue, Sep 16Bias: BUY DIPS into 6653–6643. Continuation long on 15m acceptance ≥ 6722–6726 with a 5m hold. Counter-trend short only on a clean 15m rejection at 6722–6726 (2.0R gate).
Why bullish bias (even with short fade allowed)
So, here’s why I’m leaning bullish (but I’m cool with a short fade now and then):
First off, when you check out the higher time frame (HTF), the trend is up. It’s usually a better bet to buy when prices dip rather than trying to call the top.
Then there's the risk situation: if we look at support around 6638–6643 and resistance levels at 6678/6700, we can set up for a nice 2R–3R trade with tight stops based on the 15-minute chart.
As for shorts, we’re going against the trend here. The only reason to short would be if we hit major resistance around 6722–6726. But if we don’t see a proper rejection, I’m not going to push it—I’ll just stick to going long.
Setups:
Long — Dip Buy (primary)
• Zone: 6653–6658 (Support-Initial) → 6638–6643 (Support-Next).
• Trigger: 15m reclaims support (body back above) → 5m re-close up with HL → 1m HL entry.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6700–6706 (then trail only after TP2).
Tomorrow’s key U.S. events (ET)
• Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales — 8:30 (consumer pulse; can move index futures).
• Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization — 9:15.
• NAHB Housing Market Index — 10:00.
• Import/Export Price Indexes — 8:30.
• Treasury bill auctions (4- & 8-week; supply headline).
• FOMC (two-day) begins Tue; decision & SEP/dot plot Wed.
• Monthlies/OPEX: Fri Sep 19 (flows can affect tape later in week).
Long — Acceptance Continuation (secondary)
• Flip condition: 15m full-body ≥ 6722–6726 and 5m holds ≥ 6720–6722.
• Entry: 6721–6723 HL retest.
• SL: under the 15m trigger-low −0.25/−0.50.
• TPs: 6760–6765 → 6804–6808.
Short — Rejection Fade (counter-trend, extremes only)
• Zone: Resistance — Major 6722–6726 (or 6700–6706 if Major remains untagged).
• Trigger: 15m sweep & body back inside → 5m LH re-close → 1m fail/reclaim sell.
• SL: 15m sweep-high +0.50.
• TPs: 6678–6683 → 6653–6658 → 6638–6643.
Day 30 — Trading Only S&P Futures | One-Month MarkDay 30 of Trading Only S&P Futures is in the books!
I started the day a little rough, down -100 from an overnight trade, but patience paid off. Watching NQ DD buy signals kept me from forcing shorts early, and SPX gamma levels showed 6620 as the top. Once we hit it, I shorted and played the range for steady gains, finishing with a clean MOB bounce for +196.94.
Big milestone here — 30 straight days of trading only the S&P Futures. The consistency is starting to show, and the lessons are stacking up fast.
📰 News Highlights
VIX jumped 6% while the market gained 0.5% — an odd divergence worth watching.
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow=
Above 6645 = Remain Bullish
Below 6635 = Flip Bearish
100 to 1,000,000Proverbs 3:5-6 trust in the lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding. acknowledge him in all your ways and he will make your ways straight.
This is the begining of a series, where I Gideon Stoker a follower of Christ will be turning 100$ or in this case 94$ into 1,000,000.
Cooking a rotation Large frame ranges for 2025 / 2026 -- all targets upside tapped on previous chart and current price inside 12M sell box - with esz already beyond @ 6681.
NFP revision showed employment weaker than data implied and CPI Beat 5 year expectations showing inflation not done.
Consumer sentiment showing pessimism on jobs and prices.
Market front running rate cut "relief" pricing in 3 cuts and pushing es to 4 consecutive days of new ATHs.
3d s1 @ 6621
1d macro s1 @ 6624 s2 @ 6546
Both pending bearish rotation
on esz downside rotation confirms at sustain below 6656
on esu below 8h s1 @ 6606
as of 15 Sept 11:27 ET
esu5 vol @ 861.6k
esz5 vol @ 963.1k
vol has shifted to esz5, current high @ 6681.25
price already inside 3d sell box.
1M sell begins @ 6685
n200 @ 6036
Buy boxes noted on chart, including 12M buy for 2026 and major sup levels @ 5450 and 5037
Rotation is a feature not a flaw.
2025 at roughly 140.9% of range; never be the last one out.
Appreciate the risk.
S&P 500 - Retracement overdue?The S&P 500 has statistically exhibited a Seasonal tendency to retrace during September. The further the bullish extension continues, the more aggressive any bearish retracements may become.
Despite a unique set of economic, geopolitical and technical circumstances being present, there is a general tendency to revisit the mean or the larger moving averages.
ES — Week Ahead (Sep 15–19) — Fundamentals & Key Risk WindowsMacro focus: FOMC (Wed 2:00/2:30 pm ET), plus Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, and LEI.
Calendar (ET):
Tue 9/16
• Retail Sales (Aug) 8:30 — Census schedule confirms Sep 16, 8:30 am release.
• Industrial Production (Aug) 9:15 — G.17 release calendar shows Sep 16 at 9:15 am.
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep) 10:00 — NAHB schedule sets Sep 16, 10:00 am.
• FOMC (Day 1) begins — Fed calendar.
Wed 9/17
• Housing Starts/Permits (Aug) 8:30 — Census/HUD note next report Sep 17, 8:30 am.
• FOMC Statement 2:00 / Powell 2:30 — Fed event calendar.
Thu 9/18
• Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 — DOL weekly; last print 263k (spike tied to TX/fraud anomalies).
• Philly Fed (MBOS) 8:30 — 3rd Thu schedule.
• Conference Board LEI 10:00 — next release Sep 18, 10:00 am.
Fri 9/19
• State Employment (Aug) 10:00 — BLS schedule.
• (FYI for next week: Existing Home Sales (Aug) Tue Sep 23, 10:00 am.)
Context to watch:
• Markets widely expect a 25 bp cut at the Sep 16–17 FOMC; path/“dots” and Powell’s tone matter more than the cut size.
• Michigan sentiment (prelim) fell to 55.4 with inflation expectations elevated (1-yr 4.8%, 5-yr 3.9%).
Tomorrow (Mon 9/15) — Trade Plan
Kill-zones (ET): NY AM 09:30–11:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00.
News risk: NAHB 10:00 (size down or wait 2–3m around print)
Long from support 6586 → TP1 6600
• 15m trigger: Rejection at 6586 (close ≥ 6587 after testing ≤ 6585).
• 5m confirm: Higher-low + close ≥ 6588.
• 1m entry: First retest that closes back above 6587.
• Hard SL: 15m wick low − 0.25–0.50.
• TP1: 6600 (book 70%, runner 30% @ BE).
• TP2 (runner): 6606.25.
Short from resistance 6600 → TP1 6586
• 15m trigger: Rejection at 6600 (close < 6596.5 after probing ≥ 6598.5).
• 5m confirm: Lower-high + close < 6596.0.
• 1m entry: First retest that closes back below 6596.5.
• Hard SL: 15m wick high + 0.25–0.50.
• TP1: 6586 (book 70%, runner 30% @ BE).
• TP2 (runner): 6581.50.
Weekly plan—how fundamentals change our timing
• Tue AM (Retail Sales 8:30 / IP 9:15 / HMI 10:00): Expect a more directional NY AM; trade level→level but avoid first prints by ±3–5m.
• Wed (FOMC 2:00/2:30): Treat NY PM as the main event; no positions carried into 1:55–2:35 unless already at TP1 with runner @ BE.
• Thu (Claims/Philly/LEI): 8:30–10:00 stack can create a trend morning; trade acceptance if a 15m body prints through a level.
ES - September 15th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 14th - 2:10pm
On Friday 12th we were looking for a pull back to 6576 for an entry higher with targets of 6606 up first. We never pulled back after the 4:15am low and we held the 6585 level the rest of the day and recovered it again at the close. The Friday trade plan is going to be very similar to what we are looking for Monday. I will post my usual 6am overnight session update with a new chart, but for those trading at the open, you can follow the following plan.
(You can also check out the weekly trade plan and Friday's Daily Trade plan in the related publication section)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Make sure to read the Weekly Trade Plan if you have not already.
Trade Plan for Monday is as follows:
Ideally, we get a flush of 6576 and reclaim to head higher up the levels. Below 6585 and this will become a new overhead resistance as we spent a lot of time at 6585 zone since the Thursday break out. I do think price can make its way down to 6562 area, flush and reclaim the 6565 level and back test 6576, then potentially keep the move going higher. Below 6562 and 6550 is next good level to wait for a reaction with 6535 being a high-quality level we would like to flush and reclaim, then test levels above. It is FOMC week, and anything can happen leading into Wednesday. We have had a nice run the past few weeks and most of the pull backs have been around 25pts-35pts. We hit a new high at 6606 Friday afternoon and sold down to 6583. A move down to 6562 level would keep the typical pull backs we have seen in play. While it can go lower, Ideally, we don't lose 6550 or if we do we get a quick reclaim and keep moving higher.
Key Support Levels - 6583, 6576, 6569, 6562, 6551, 6535, 6522
Key Resistance Levels - 6592, 6596, 6600, 6606
Upside targets above are 6615, 6622, 6637+
My main levels I will be watching for a pull back to are 6576, 6562, 6535 is last big area that I believe needs to hold, or we could be in for a change of character. Any loss of 6490 should be a bigger picture caution sign and we will evaluate price action daily via the Daily Trade Plan.
I will post an update around 8pm once the session open settles out and I will update a new plan if any major changes transpire before 7am EST on Monday.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly High/Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
MES1! WEEK 38TH SEPT 14H Looking for MON, TUE, WED LOW of the week, trading to sweep $6576
Look to take sells from the Bearish OB until weekly low is established. Use the daily SIBI to gauge strength then $6576 is Broken.
MID WEEK look for opportunities of a reversal to BUY towards the $6606 HIGH.
NOTE week are entering MC-3RD-Q. This will typically set up the range for a MC-NM pullback.
IF - price can come back and close above $6580 There you are wrong in you analysis and you should start looking for lower targets.
CALADER EVENT
MON
- 8:30AM - NYS MRR INDEX
TUES
- 8:30AM - RETAIL SALES (HIGH)
WED
-8:30AM - BUILDING PERMITS
- 2PM - FED RATE (HIGH)
THUR
- 8:30 - UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIM
Note - remember to keep track of midnight/8:30 opening prices. Always refer back to the 1H and 3H to confirm when side of the market you should be on.
- Alway look to buy in a discount range and sell in a premium range.
Risk- Only risk 150- 200 per trade on initial entry. you can add lots once you confirm trade is good.
Max two trades per session.
ES - Weekly Trading Plan - September 15th - 19thSeptember 14th - 7:45am
Recap of last week's plan -
"We have to stay bullish until proven otherwise, last week 6369 was the key level to hold and we did. This week 6410-6425 really needs to hold. I could see us pulling back into the 6425-6435 zone, trapping and moving us higher. The first big level I will be looking for a flush and reclaim is 6453-6458 area, that was last Thursday and Friday's levels."
"Target Levels for Week - 6567, IF, price wants it we could go higher to 6597, 6615 but those are not my main targets for the week as the white trendline around 6567 should be a strong resistance."
On Sunday we opened up and could only pullback to 6480 before building a nice base around 6490 area and that became the key low for the week. We ended up moving higher throughout the week and exceeded our targets of 6567, 6597, and just short of 6615.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's review this week's plan!
ES contract (ESU2025) expires Friday September 19th, and I will be rolling over after close on Monday to December (ESZ2025). I will keep you posted on the Daily Trade Plan
Last week our low was 6480 with a high of 6606 put in on Friday at the close. The white trend line continues to be support and would be very bullish if we can flush no lower than 6560-64 level and then continue higher to the 6615, 6637 and could reach 6684, IF, price really wants it.
I anticipate trapping this week as we look towards the FOMC on 17th and Quarterly Window Dressing by Institutions.
We have to stay bullish until proven otherwise, last week 6490, 6545, 6575 are 3 key levels to hold this week and look for some reaction. (I will go into more detail on Monday Daily Trade Plan)
Key Support Levels - 6575, 6562-64, 6545-50, 6535, 6523, 6490.
Key Resistance Levels - 6496, 6507-09, 6520, 6542
Target Levels for Week - 6615,6637 and could reach 6684 zone.
My main levels I will be watching for a pull back to are 6576, 6562, 6535 is last big area that I believe needs to hold, or we could be in for a change of character. Any loss of 6490 should be a bigger picture caution sign and we will evaluate price action daily via the Daily Trade Plan.
Follow to read my daily trade plan - I will send out tonight's Sunday Session Open Trade Plan by 5pm EST.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Purple Levels - Weekly High/Low
Green Levels - Weekly Targets
Yellow Levels - Daily Key Levels (See Daily Trade Plan)
White - Rising trendlines from august lows
Will Lowered Interest Rates Make Or Break The Stock Index MarketS&P 500 Fundamentals:
All three of the major indexes posted gains for the week, led by a 2% gain in the Nasdaq, with expectations high the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at the meeting.
S&P ascends second straight week, adds 1.6% on revived artificial intelligence optimism, expected interest-rate cuts.
Price Levels To Lookout For:
- Closure Above $6,600
- $6,450 Weekly Order Block
- $6,223.25 - $6,109.00 Weekly Draw On Liquidity
Nasdaq Fundamentals:
Helping the Nasdaq, shares of Tesla gained 7.4% after board chair Robyn Denholm dismissed concerns that CEO Elon Musk's political activity had hurt sales at the electric-vehicle maker and said the billionaire was "front and centre" at the company.
Price Levels To Lookout For:
- $24,068.50 Prev All-Time HIghs
- $24,200 Psychological Level
- $22,222 - $22,582 Weekly Sellside Liquidity Pool
Dow Jones Fundamentals:
In New York, the Dow Jones Index dropped 231 points or 0.50 percent on Friday.
Losses were led by Merck (-2.75%), Sherwin-Williams (-2.14%) and Honeywell International (-1.79%).
Offsetting the fall, top gainers were Apple (1.82%), Microsoft (1.76%) and Walmart (0.83%).
Price Levels To Lookout For:
- $46,176 (Current Highs)
- $45,245 Weekly Order Block
- $44,642 - $44,615 Weekly BISI
Day 29 — Trading Only S&P Futures | From Red to GreenWelcome to Day 29 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
The day started bearish, and my early shorts worked — until the market began spiking up and flipping bullish. Some of those positions hit stop-loss, so I stepped back and waited.
At 6605 gamma resistance, I shorted again with conviction and rode the reversal back into positive territory, finishing the day at +91.81.
This was a good reminder to not overstay trades when conditions are choppy, and to wait for the high-probability levels to do the heavy lifting.
📰 News Highlights
U.S. SEPTEMBER MICHIGAN 5-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RISES 3.9%; EST. 3.4%; PREV. 3.5%
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6565 = Remain Bullish
Below 6535 = Flip Bearish
ES - September 12th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 12th - 6:15am EST
Yesterday we had great trading conditions, and we have exceeded our weekly targets! I wrote at 5:50am EST in my trade plan the following - (You can see it in the related publication section)
"Overnight low is 6534 and high is 6551 as of writing. We have to remain bullish until proven otherwise, so the targets above at 6567, 6578 and if it really wants it can get to 6592. I have said that the white trend line is a magnet that we are heading towards. We just don't know what route price will take to achieve its targets. We focus on our process and edge to take points out of the market daily."
There were 2 key takeaways from this that I want to point out.
1. 6551 was the overnight session high at time of writing. It also became a key support that took us higher after 9:30am. You can see on the 15 min chart a nice consolidation of price that held until breaking out.
2. My initial targets of 6567, 6578 were met, we blew past the white trend line magnet and then ripped past my target of 6592 and the high of the day was 6600.
6600 on ES & 46,000 on DOW are big round numbers! You should never be bearish when the trend is up, I do think we can be cautious for many reasons. September is typically a bearish month, Fed Cutting rates will actually be bearish, not bullish, Employment rate is going higher, Credit Card delinquencies are higher, Auto Payment delinquencies are higher, etc., etc., etc.
Those reasons are data, news, opinions and not how we make money on a daily basis trading ES. As we all know, Institutions make money on news events, by using those events to scare retail investors into a bearish mindset, sell price down to key levels that they can run stops, grab liquidity, and then ride the market higher. It's called accumulation and distribution.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's get into today's trading plan!
Overnight low is 6576 and high is 6596. We have been going sideways overnight and into the white trend line magnet. We are currently grinding slowly across the white trendline as I write this plan. After a healthy 65pt move yesterday, price needs to settle and figure out what it wants to do. While we don't care what price decides to do or the path it takes, we will just focus on what levels do we think have the highest probability of flushing, reclaiming and driving us higher to the next level. (Why? I do NOT SHORT ES, I LONG areas that liquidity will be present and institutions are buying at).
Key Support Levels - 6576, 6569, 6562, 6551, 6535, 6522
Key Resistance Levels - 6585, 6592, 6596, 6600
Upside targets above are 6606, 6614, 6621+
Key Levels to watch for price opportunities:
1. Overnight low at 6576. This area was tested and really has not given us much of a bounce, so not sure there is much liquidity left in the tank when we test it again.
2. 6562, flush and reclaim to back test 6576 and potentially keep going higher.
3. 6551, flush and reclaim to back test 6576 and potentially keep going higher.
IF, price breaks below 6551, I will only be focused on the flush and reclaim of the levels in blue below at 6535, 6522. This could be 6530, reclaim 6535 or 6517, reclaim 6522.
IF, price can flush and reclaim the red or blue levels, those are always my highest quality spots I am looking to ride higher. The yellow levels are very important support and resistance levels that you can get reclaims of and move higher. They can also be choppy and harder to enter without a short time frame edge for entry. It is all based on your strategy, goals and edge of getting points from ES.
I will post an update around 10am after the NYSE open.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly High/Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
Simple UO + ADX Futures Strategy📚 Trading Plan with UO + ADX + 9/21 MA
1. Indicator Roles
Ultimate Oscillator (UO): Measures momentum across 3 different timeframes (short, medium, long). I use the lengths 4/8/14.
Overbought: > 70
Oversold: < 30
Neutral: 30–70 range
ADX (14-period, 100 smoothed): Measures trend strength, not direction.
Weak trend: < 17~20
Building trend: 20–25
Strong trend: > 27–30, enter on pullback. A bounce from the 9 or 21 MA.
2. Core Trading Logic
We combine momentum (UO) with trend strength (ADX) to avoid false signals.
Long Setup (Buy):
ADX rising above 23 → trend gaining strength.
UO crosses above 30 from below → confirms bullish momentum.
Confirm price is above 21-day MA (optional filter for trend).
📈 Exit:
UO > 50 and turning down, or
ADX below 17, or
Trailing MA.
Short Setup (Sell):
ADX rising above 27 → trend gaining strength.
UO crosses below 70 from above → confirms bearish momentum.
Confirm price is below 9-day MA (optional filter for trend).
📉 Exit:
UO < 30 and turning up, or
ADX drops below 20, or
Trailing stop.
3. Advanced Filters
Avoid false breakouts: If ADX < 20, ignore UO signals (no strong trend).
Divergence filter: If price makes a new high but UO does not → weakening trend.
Scaling:
Add to winners if ADX > 30 and still rising.
Take partial profits if ADX flattens while UO is in extreme zone.
4. Risk Management
Position sizing: Risk 1–2% of account per trade.
Stop loss: Below recent swing low (for longs) or above swing high (for shorts).
Take profit: Risk:Reward 1:2 minimum, or trail with MA.
5. Example Workflow
Case 1 (Bullish):
ADX rises from 18 → 27 (trend forming).
UO crosses 50 → bullish signal.
Enter long.
Exit when UO > 70 and rolls over, or ADX drops < 20.
Case 2 (Bearish):
ADX rises above 25.
UO crosses below 50.
Enter short.
Exit when UO < 30 and turns up, or ADX weakens.
✅ Summary Ruleset
Trade only when ADX > 23–25 (filter out noise).
Go long: UO crosses > 50 with rising ADX.
Go short: UO crosses < 50 with rising ADX.
Exit on momentum extremes (UO < 30 or > 70) or weakening ADX.
Risk: Keep losses capped at 1–2% of equity per trade.
US Stock Market, Retail Investors’ Pessimism;A Positive Signal?1) What is contrarian analysis of financial markets?
Contrarian analysis is an original way of looking at financial markets, based on market sentiment, particularly the sentiment of retail traders, often considered the “weak hands” of the market. Instead of following the dominant opinion, it assumes that the crowd is often wrong, especially retail investors. Indeed, they tend to react emotionally: buying when everything looks good and selling when everything looks bad.
However, markets rarely behave so obviously. When the majority of retail investors are euphoric and convinced that the rally will continue, it often means most of them have already bought, leaving few potential buyers to push prices higher – and therefore the market top may be near. Conversely, when these same investors are pessimistic, it usually indicates that they have already sold, that the downside potential is limited, and that the market bottom is near.
Applied to US equities, this reasoning becomes particularly interesting. Imagine a steadily rising market, supported by strong corporate earnings and a solid economy. If retail investors remain cautious or worried despite this, it may suggest that the rally is not over. Their skepticism leaves room for additional buying later, which can extend the trend.
In summary, contrarian analysis encourages us to view retail investors’ pessimism as an opportunity rather than a threat. As long as they doubt, the market is probably not at its peak. It is only when optimism becomes widespread that real caution is warranted.
2) According to the AAII, retail investors’ pessimism is near its yearly high regarding US equities
The current sentiment situation is particularly interesting. According to the latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), the percentage of retail investors with bearish expectations has climbed near its yearly high and stands well above its historical average.
Yet, the S&P 500 is trading near its all-time high. According to contrarian analysis, this suggests that the bullish cycle top in the S&P 500 has not yet been reached, since market peaks are always built on retail investors’ euphoria (and troughs on their pessimism).
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
ES (SPX) Futures Analyses for tomorrow Sep 12Overnight
Expect balance 6586–6596 with a modest bullish tilt. If ON accepts >6596.5, drift toward 6603–6606 is likely before NY.
Tomorrow (NY session)
Base case: Early range, then acceptance >6596.5 (close + clean retest) → expansion to 6606 → 6612 → 6616–6619 (HTF extension band).
Failure path: Rejection at 6596–6600 and acceptance <6586 → rotate 6581 → 6577; deeper only if 6577 fails (then 6566/6556).
Fundamentals (times ET)
10:00 — Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Sep). This is the only major macro print on deck; expect a 2–5m whipsaw around the release, then directional follow-through after displacement.
Today’s context: CPI (Aug) came in +0.4% m/m, +2.9% y/y; Core +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y, and Initial Jobless Claims rose to 263k (week ending Sep 6). Together: inflation still sticky but labor softening—into tomorrow this supports “range→up unless 6586 breaks.”
Day 28 S&P Futures | -$78 Trading While Under the WeatherWelcome to Day 28 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
Not my best day — I was feeling under the weather and missed the open. Took a trade at resistance that didn’t work out and left some limit orders higher up at GEX resistance levels. Most of the session I stayed on the sidelines, but my end-of-day orders finally filled and gave me a decent recovery.
Sometimes the best decision when you’re not 100% is to step back and avoid forcing trades.
📰 News Highlights
DOW CLOSES UP OVER 600 POINTS, VIX TUMBLES AS STOCKS END AT RECORD HIGHS AFTER CPI DATA
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6540 = Remain Bullish
Below 6520 = Flip Bearish