MSTR LongThe broader market structure on MSTR (15-minute) remains bearish, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent Break of Structure (BOS) occurred around $309.34, confirming continuation to the downside after price failed to sustain above prior support. No Change of Character (CHoCH) has yet formed, meaning the downtrend remains intact, though short-term corrective movement is underway as price consolidates above a minor demand zone.
The upper supply zones between $323–$330 remain strong, as each previously caused sharp declines with little to no bullish defense—evidence of significant selling pressure. Sellers were clearly aggressive here, leaving inefficiency and unmitigated zones overhead that could attract price for liquidity before a continuation lower. The nearby demand zone between $306–$308 shows initial signs of buyer interest; price rebounded from this area with a brief impulse, suggesting temporary absorption, but it’s still relatively weak given the speed and strength of prior declines.
Within the marked region, price is currently pulling back toward the $308 demand, and the reaction there will determine the next leg. If buyers defend that zone again, we can expect a short-term bounce targeting $320–$323, where the next layer of supply awaits. However, failure to hold above $306 would invalidate this corrective move and re-open downside targets toward $295–$292, aligning with the lower demand area.
From a footprint analysis perspective, recent candles likely show a mild uptick in positive delta as buyers attempt to build a base, but the overall delta profile still favors sellers—suggesting buy absorption rather than true initiative buying. Expect heavier negative delta if price re-enters supply, confirming that sellers remain in control.
Trade bias: short-term bullish correction within a broader bearish trend. Expect a reaction higher from $308–$306 into $320–$323, followed by potential continuation down.
Invalidation: a clean break below $306, which would negate any bullish retracement.
Momentum: mildly favors buyers in the near term but remains dominated by sellers on the higher structure.
