XLF trade ideas
Can it be anymore clearer than this?Clear wave pattern seen in the XLF -0.25% ETF .
I'm expecting one final push up from 23.54 right now in the next few weeks with a target of 24.76 (76.4% retracement of 2008 highs).
It would have been pretty good level to accumulate some long term puts up to a year.
The anti-bank sentiment is far from over, and almost certainly not right now. Trump rally at least in the short term is not going to unwind the fact that we're in a deflationary cycle and it will only get worst.
Bearish US Financials $XLF $KREYield curve is flattening with each rate hike as the short term floor is hiked higher. Not a stable environment for better loan growth. These are the leaders, do people really expect a hand off back to FANG?
XLF - WeeklyNotional placement and timing, just to reflect the big picture for the ideas posted in this thread...
New Area for XLF @ > 25 USD at least (historical context)What a rollercoaster the financilas got - no doubt :)
How ever, based on some strategic facts (point of views) i realized that the financial sector still got time and room to prices above 25 at least. Why ??? The Sentiment changed !!! And not only this - of course politics in the US too. And this is probably the most inflous - the most bullish factor !? CNBC Joe (Squaqck Box) said an interesting set which not tasted good at first, but as longer i am thinking about it, it`s sounding plausible: "Maybe we don`t see a Trump Rally !? Maybe it`s an Obama recreation" (he said this set not word by word - in context of course - don`t nail me for this quote). And thats what i am also starting to believe. It`s much more an recovery of the last 8 years - even under Obama (and his policy in context to the financial markets) - even in relations to the US Equities (Financials & Energy Sector).
I am not an political analysis or even political expert,
but this hypothesis makes sense in historical context of the chart!
And that`s the reason why i am so pretty optimistic - kosher confident (self-disciplined) not euphoric bullish. `Cause i can`t feel maniac future optimism around me - not here in chats, not on other intenet sites, not on CNBC or BloombergTv and by no one of my trading buddies.
2400 at least for the SPX are in (over Christmas into Trumpe Presidency start)
25 at least for the XLF are in (over Christmas into Trumpe Presidency start)
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
Bearish XLFI may regret this, but damn does this look pig look ugly. There's a lot of Trump brand lipstick on it don't get me wrong, but this rally is just too far for me not to take a stab.
XLF time 2 shortXLF time 2 short. From 2007 May high to 2016 October high the red line is the resistance.
From 2009 MArch low till 2016 feb low is green line acting as support. But even DOWJONES, SPY AND NASDAQ MADE SOME NEW HIGHS BUT XLF failed to do so. Means technically its weak. So time to short :)
xlf v spx500 wicks thoeryIllustrating the wicks experienced during the Lehman brothers moment. Curious, and not in the media too much, August 31, 2015 xlf flash crash. A wick is a reversal of a move. Either by trading exhaustion of sellers, or by some hidden force. I say, and have no proof to back this up, we were about to experience something very bad in banking on that day, but did not, a little over one year until the 2016 election. I believe a decision was made that day, to watch the markets closely, and make sure if there is ever a turn for the very much worse, it be propped up, or pumped up. Thus we have this very un historic chart since then. Also, January 11, 2016 was similar, and was stopped from getting worse. With negative interest rates, and no lending volume, how can the banks report well their earnings next few days. Maybe they will find a way, i.e. lets just create new checking accounts out of thin air, and charge people for fees they don't know about or understand. What is next in the news? This has xlf short written all over it. Also, note the severity of the xlf drops, v the S&P drops. The magnitude of banks is much larger. Since March 14, 2016 this chart is in fantasy land.
XLF Transform trigger near. OBV must trigger in concert. Transform logic. Canned Fisher with modifications. Watching for obv to validate. GL.
Long Banks: The Fed Has to Raise, Right?In light of the beastly last two NFPs and increasing inflation, I would like the think the Fed will raise rates in September... they probably won't, but that is not the point. XLF has broken out of the nearly year long triangle quite clearly. It is a long. Near term resistance is at 25, however that should be taken out.
Tl;dr: Long XLF
